RE: August 1944: Industrial and VP Report (Full Version)

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ny59giants -> RE: August 1944: Industrial and VP Report (1/28/2009 1:05:12 PM)

Damian,
Here are the Oil centers and damages from 24 July.

[image]local://upfiles/15133/5E0409B12ADB4200BCE2C94CB2D92F4F.jpg[/image]



Bogo Mil -> RE: August 1944: Industrial and VP Report (1/28/2009 1:58:09 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd
Score
Japan 55,168 (Up 942 Points)
Allies 60,163 (Up 5,934 Points)

Strategic Losses 9,046 (Up 2,202)

For the fifth month in a row I GAIN victory points. It seems positive to me.

The Allies want a 2:1 ratio. This month they gained 4050 points (5934-2*942), and they need another 50173 to win in '45. If they don't get points faster, you will hold for another 12 1/2 months!

quote:


Fully 33% of Dan’s point gain comes in the area of strategic losses. This has been slowed with my resurgent aerial battle over Japan and now Manchuria.

Regarding the points, it is great for you that he goes for Manchuria now. He doesn't get any strategic points there, afaik. They hurt your economy, yes. But your fleet is almost completed, you can start turning off your shipyards - thus you can afford to lose industry. Most important is the aircraft production, and if you look at the economy screen of the tracker, you will realize that this branch needs only a small fraction of your HI output. Most costly are those shipyards.

I would turn off repair on all industries except some important aircraft models now. But don't turn off armament and vehicle plants if this is not absolutely necessary, only rurn off repairs. Try to build stockpiles with your existing plants as long as you have them. Maybe Dan decides to level them some day... You can turn off the plants if your HI pool really runs low or if you think your stockpiles will last for the rest of the war, but not now. It is wasteful to switch back and forth - turn the plants off, run out of arm points, expand the plants, ... This costs supply and some HI for nothing.

quote:

Malaya and Indochina will be over within 1-2 weeks.

I would try to defend Singapore as long as possible. Do you have good fort levels there? You will lose the defending troops, sure (evacuate fragments...). But if sacrificing 2 divisions more gives you one month more, that's a good trade, imho. In Singapore you have urban bonus, your should use that to your advantage. Have some engineers there as well - if you are lucky, they will destroy the industry when the base falls (most important is the repair shipyard - it hurts the Allies if they have to repair it).



n01487477 -> RE: August 1944: Industrial and VP Report (1/28/2009 1:59:01 PM)

Japan 9075HI(??) --- Oil 76(124) = 76*6= 456/day
assuming 600K Oil in Japan
with these damage Oil Cnts in Japan = 69 days instead of 90 days Oil(as I first quoted)

1000 Oil C in Java/Borneo = 6000/day
Supplying Just Japan (in a perfect economy - no loss of TK's & perfect mobility or damage / loss to additional bases / Cntrs)
= 229 Days at full HI in Japan

**Hence the strategic importance of these bases should be made paramount without maybe drawing too much attention to them... fighter cap is recommended. Without these you've basically lost the game economically and will have to rely on your HI reserves and any Oil pumped in Japan(not much).With maybe a stand into mid '45.

Semi-self sufficient (both should produce ~80% of the days)
Nth China 500HI --- 75*6 = 450/day
Manchuria/Korea 2290HI --- 375*6= 2250/day

Hope this makes sense...
Damian



John 3rd -> RE: August 1944: Industrial and VP Report (1/28/2009 6:50:54 PM)

Thanks guys.  I am bedeviled with issues regarding my email at the moment (slightly detailed in other First Team AAR).  Add to that I am going over to see my Father and this means no substantial update until later today.

August 1st did feature a massive 3 Wave Allied assault on Tokyo that resulted in 89 Allied planes lost in exchange for 45 Japanese Fighters!  Will detail with a screenshot when I get back.

Damian and Michael--Thanks for the advice.  Damian did you see my Naval/Merchant surplus has come down?

Bogo Mil--Thanks for the Manchuria observation.  IT is great that no strategic losses occur there.  I hadn't thought of that whatsoever.




John 3rd -> RE: August 1944: Industrial and VP Report (1/28/2009 6:53:47 PM)

Current turn has been sent to Michael and I told him to forward it over to Damian if you are interested.  It'll probably be laughable...




n01487477 -> RE: August 1944: Industrial and VP Report (1/29/2009 10:27:45 AM)

John - always interested in looking at data and seeing how the analysis could be improved in Tracker. I've already made a list of small changes I want to make :)

Also it is a great insight into the late game economy - and while not laughable, it is going to be an interesting few months.

All that I suggest is obviously at your digression (and believe me I have some similar problems I haven't fixed in my game V Nemo).

Onto the analysis:
HI: Japan has 13926HI, although only 12135 is being produced as Sth China, Commonwealth, Indo-China, Thailand & Malaya are out of oil.Also Nth China is lacking oil in Chengting and Peking - although overall there should be theoretically enough oil in Tietsin to support the region for 8 days - I just hope that it is still moving the oil around. And as I stated in my previous post this area should produce 80% of the time.

Oil: In Japan 121366 with 239600 nearby in TF's. This will give you 42 days Oil here. For readers interest the Japanese Oil Cntrs at Akita and Niigata are almost destroyed.

Manchuria: seems to be running well providing 2542HI/turn. This is important enough to dissuade Dan from continuing his raids here.

Elsewhere: Borneo and Java are the remaining bases with surplus Oil production. IMO apart from Japan the most important Strategic area remaining. Of the 1876 Oil Cnts remaining - Java has 200 and Borneo 793. The loss of Palembang will reduce the total to 1536 - so half of the remaining Oil lies in this region. This 993*6= 5958Oil/day, obviously is not enough to fuel the 8943HI in Japan forever & maybe for only a short time depending on how John decides to defend and protect these assets.

Without this remember only 42 days remain in Japan, with I estimate 129 days.
(5958+294)=6152(Oil produced/day) 6152-8943=-2791(loss of oil/day)
360966(Oil in Japan)/2791 = 129 days. (sorry not too much more math!)

Although there is another TF with 70K Oil loaded and Oil already sitting in Ports so there is a margin of error here.

Recommend:(totally your choice)
  • Jesselton - 47K Oil sitting here ... not sure how it got there, but go get it.
  • Brunei - 54K, Miri 14K and Kuching 4K - go pick it up before he takes Singapore and Saigon/Camranh Bay
  • Splash and dash Oil at Manila or Cebu or HK?? I prefer Manila/Cebu as there are enough Res here to keep it going and the extra supply might be useful later.[edit]Shanghai might be another viable small oil seed just to keep the supplies rolling.
  • Tietsin and Soochow turn off repairs to HI.
  • I've noticed that you are pulling supplies back from Manchuria - Murkden,Heijo and Dairen look like another good locale to pickup.(But Japan is starting to look ok 6 bases over 10K and the rest not far behind)
    (to be continued ...)


    [image]local://upfiles/19798/B7AF9B92C8624B629F84A3F7E2A48C6C.jpg[/image]



    • n01487477 -> RE: August 1944: Industrial and VP Report (1/29/2009 10:47:48 AM)

    Ships:

    Repair Yards - I notice you have many of them halted, now maybe I am wrong but turning them off makes no difference to supply - they work cost free.

    Naval Shipyards surplus is now 0, running at -320. If you want to have that CVTF come in all at the same time you need to either halt each at delay 1 or Accel CV Kasagi, set CVL Ibuki for 1 day to normal and the 3 DD's to halt for a day or two. I'd also stop accel PC 34 & 42 and DD Haruzuki until they are the same, and this will allow Kasagi to be accelerated.

    Merch surplus is 8179, reducing -273 / day (so 30 days left). I notice you have a number of AG's sitting at delay 1... now I've tested this in the past and these annoying transports will sit here sucking 44pts/turn while they are not created via create barges. It is up to you but I'd make two or three tf's at Osaka (using about 1000 supplies to get them out of the mix.)This is a real annoying part of the ship build and I hope AE changes this as you are paying for them twice IMO.


    Recommend:
  • Turn off repair to Naval at Nagasaki
  • Turn on Ship Repair
  • Line up the ships so that they come in on the same day.
  • In 30 days you are going to have to cull some more of your merchant build.
  • Be careful of the ships outside the normal build range but which you have accelerated, once they enter the normal build range instead of costing just the durability, they will cost dur*3 (eg. Pc 39, 56)

    (more to come ...)

    [image]local://upfiles/19798/B609ED8E6BDD4CFD9F11452049071EA4.jpg[/image]



    • n01487477 -> RE: August 1944: Industrial and VP Report (1/29/2009 11:10:32 AM)

    LCU's:

    You are nearing the end of the build here.
    You currently have:pts(production)
    Manpower: 1228670(3720)
    Arm:7196(785)
    Veh:8278(0)

    With only 4 HQ's, 33Inf & 10Eng to come. These will require 285648 Man, 31192 Arm and 0 Veh.

    On the map you need 24217 Manpower, 330036 Arm and 11190 Veh points to fill out your units.

    You will essentially have no problem producing this, unless your HI/Oil situation deteriorates further...(this will take around 70-80 days to achieve)

    Recommend:
  • Stop repair to Nagasaki Arm factory
  • Reduce Arm production by 100 at Fukuoka and Gumma and turn on 100 Veh at Tokyo and Kyoto for 30 days - balancing the equation. This will give you enough Veh points to do everything. You could even possibly reduce the Arm by more and still remain workable in reinforcements and delayed troops.
  • Further to above - as you know Arm and Veh point production is the most expensive at 6X. If I were to strip this back to almost nothing so to save as much HI as possible - thinking you have essentially 90days Oil then 472 Arm factories turned on over this period would be enough- saving 1800 HI/day.But then you would have to micro-manage this with your delayed and reinforced troops.
  • 109th at Niigata and 111th at Mutankiang turn on reinforcements. (others could too, but these are the ones I targetted.

    [image]local://upfiles/19798/7492D986791A4640A00D365737A2CC40.jpg[/image]



    • Bogo Mil -> RE: August 1944: Industrial and VP Report (1/29/2009 11:25:57 AM)

    I would consider to stop accelerating most ships. For example CV Aso: With acceleration, you will get the ship 30 days earlier, but these 30 days will cost you 30 * 73 = 2190 Naval shipyard points. That's 6570 HI points. In other words, getting the CV one month earlier costs you 6570 / 36 = 182 fighter aircraft. Is the shorter delay really worth it?

    It depends on your strategy - if you have a plan which requires the ships earlier, it's probably worth it. But if not, I would become very stingy now. You will run out of oil before the game ends, thus every 36 HI points wasted means you can build one fighter less. You have to prioritise now. I think the air defense is the most important thing, a major shipbuilding programme is a luxury for people who have stockpiled vast amounts of oil and HI points.

    Another option would be to cut down the armament and vehicle production to save HI points. I would hesitate to do so - imho having strong LCUs is more important than getting ships a few weeks earlier.



    n01487477 -> RE: August 1944: Industrial and VP Report (1/29/2009 12:21:56 PM)

    (last post...I hope ... You probably know most of this - so I hope that this or anything I might have said before isn't condescending - it is not my aim, rather I'm hoping to just explain a bit of what I know and I'm sure others with better expertise/opinions can jump in and talk more about this...)

    Air:
    Overall you have 4726 planes in pool, 1556 reinforcements needed and 2479 planes Yet to be built (TBO).

    I have a lot to say here so I hope that I remember everything I was thinking an hour ago.

    TBO: - I like getting all my groups, I see no need to have less than my quota and I'm sure you feel the same John. Yet I see TBO groups with no planes in the pool and no production.

    For instance there is the T4/Yok H6K2-L group which is organising but which will never arrive - there is another group on the map but it has no planes (pls upgrade this to something else)... so unless you open a new production run for these then ...

    This is probably not so important as the fighters where as I stated in a previous post the ki-46-III KAI Dinah has 60 TBO but no production.

    I'd have a look at the TBO for each and decide how you can upgrade- downgrade to allow these groups to come in. Like the Oscar III which can be upgraded to the Frank - allowing enough to build the TBO.

    Reinforcements: The lack of supply and pilots is really hampering John's ability to keep his groups at full strength, but I think you need to either think of combining some groups and making some more training groups, or start mixing (I hate doing this) good with inexperienced pilots. The point is and I need to remember this in my game cause I'm doing it all wrong there ... get those planes and pilots out there doing something like training or dying.

    Engines:
    Apart from Mitsubishi engines, everything looks good.

    I don't want to go into all the specific issues here but if you want me to pm you John with more about this area I'm happy to ...

  • Matsue turn on Mitsub Engine plant
  • Turn off 90 Nakajima Nagoya & Nigata
  • Turn off more Peggy / Randy to stop the Mitsub bleeding
  • Stop repairing Jacks/Tony's/Frank -- maybe ??
  • Stop repairs to 200 Nakajima.

    Hope some of this helps John - I'm no expert, just giving my thoughts..
    Damian





    [image]local://upfiles/19798/D2761DDD05A143099504438272D47ED6.jpg[/image]



    • ny59giants -> RE: August 1944: Industrial and VP Report (1/29/2009 1:23:25 PM)

    Great stuff Damian. [&o]
    I need to "finish" my morning coffee and make sure I'm fully awake before I re-read all this analysis. Right now it's too much without enough caffeine in the system. [:D]



    John 3rd -> RE: August 1944: Industrial and VP Report (1/31/2009 4:24:39 PM)

    Thank you guys!

    I've been busy getting ready for the Final Act of my Legal Drama and haven't had time to update.  Will do so tonight in detail.  I did most of what Damian and Michael recommended for the Economy.  Should see results within the next week of turns.




    John 3rd -> The Battle of Johore Bharu (2/3/2009 5:50:48 AM)

    The Allies finally make an attack that causes trouble for the defense.

    We have been moving slowly the last week and are at the August 10, 1944 turn.

    Major Developments:
    1. American Fleet approaching Wake. It will be UGLY. My AS has climbed to nearly 1,000 and my supplies are over 10,000. He will Shock attack to land and it should be fun to watch. In the last 3 weeks there I have trained 2 Bomber Sentai and 125 Torpedo Planes from about 50 Experience to 70! That helps some...

    2. At the same time as this occurs, the Kaigun ends its 5 week vacation of rest, refit, and repairs at Soerabaja. The Fleet begins to organize itself into TF that number 4 CTF and 1 STF. A 5th CTF will join the Fleet from Japan. Once everything is ready the Japanese will sail from Palau for its final battle.



    [image]local://upfiles/18041/2E0A7FEFC1F64EFCA34A2594990A6362.jpg[/image]



    John 3rd -> The Battle of Johore Bharu (2/4/2009 1:45:33 AM)

    Area Notes:



    [image]local://upfiles/18041/D11C01CF3E774012B723A81B67E5F195.jpg[/image]



    John 3rd -> Wake--Part DUEX! (2/4/2009 1:57:56 AM)

    The weird and highly strange battle for Wake will undoubtably enter its final ugly, horrific climax in the next few days.




    [image]local://upfiles/18041/895CB98920FA4C37B9ED0A1F6A357BE6.jpg[/image]



    John 3rd -> Kaigun Sails (2/4/2009 2:07:38 AM)

    Dan will probably think this is disinformation so I will use it as fact.

    The freshly repaired and revamped Kaigun finished its time at Soerabaja on August 11th.  The entire Fleet of 7 CV, 5 CVL, 2 BB, cruisers, and tincans leave for Palau.  While they refuel and finish augmenting their plane complements, they will meet-up with brand new warships (CV, CVL, CL, and 6 DD) scheduled to leave Tokyo on the 13th.  Figure the entire force shall be ready for operational orders about August 20th.

    In a nice development, I find that I have too many naval aircraft to load onto the CVs.  I've managed to train my Fighter pilots to a somewhat tolerable level of experience (60-75) while my Dive Bombers and Grace Torpedo Bombers are in fantastic shape (EXP: 70-88).  Will tinker with the carrier complements while they wait at Palau.

    The Carriers leaving Soerabaja currently carry 378 Zero, 128 Judy, and 175 Grace.  There is still room for about 100 more planes.  The new reinforcements of CV Kasagi and CVL Ibuki will add another 100 planes to available space. 



    USSAmerica -> RE: Kaigun Sails (2/4/2009 3:55:12 AM)

    This looks like it could get very fun soon.  Good luck, John! [sm=00000613.gif]



    John 3rd -> RE: Kaigun Sails (2/4/2009 5:42:31 AM)

    Always good to see the popcorn box!





    veji1 -> RE: Kaigun Sails (2/4/2009 11:49:23 AM)

    Do you have CVEs left ? If you want to attack the US fleet while it hovers around Wake, the only chance you have is to use the CVE decoy AirCombat TF trick where you try to provoke a reaction from some of the USN CVtfs, hoping they split and can therefore be hurt... 



    Mike Solli -> RE: Kaigun Sails (2/4/2009 1:18:48 PM)

    John, think of how many Allied units the Wake garrison is going to chew up.  That'll set back the Allied offensive for a time.

    What's the fort level at Wake?



    John 3rd -> RE: Kaigun Sails (2/4/2009 6:13:43 PM)

    My CVEs are currently 'prowling' SE of Wake.

    Mike--the Forts are STILL at NINE Baby!  Even with supplies dwndling those boys are going to exact a horrific price for that territory...




    Mike Solli -> RE: Kaigun Sails (2/4/2009 6:36:03 PM)

    Can't wait! [sm=00000613.gif]



    John 3rd -> Toyama Attacks (2/5/2009 12:55:15 AM)

    A nice day of work for my fighters over Japan:



    [image]local://upfiles/18041/CC197EA9BAE0411F9A4A2759775DF8C1.jpg[/image]

    This is what I get for not proffing my work. It was an AMERICAN attack--not Japanese.



    John 3rd -> Naval Additions (2/5/2009 1:02:03 AM)

    Here comes the last major reinforcements for the Fleet...



    [image]local://upfiles/18041/4AD72BCE5583469DB7F12ABF8B435A74.jpg[/image]



    USSAmerica -> RE: Naval Additions (2/5/2009 2:31:12 AM)

    John, I'll bet that very few Japanese players ever see these ships when they can still make a useful addition to the fleet.  Congratulations!  [:)]



    John 3rd -> RE: Naval Additions (2/5/2009 2:41:17 AM)


    quote:

    ORIGINAL: USS America

    John, I'll bet that very few Japanese players ever see these ships when they can still make a useful addition to the fleet.  Congratulations!  [:)]


    Thanks again.

    In less then a month I will gain CV Aso, a CVE, 6 DD, and 4 SS. These additions won't substantially change the balance of power but they will HELP! If I can avoid a crushing defeat with the Fleet anytime soon, I will see the final wartime peak of the Kaigun at 10 CV, 6 CVL, and 7 CVE.

    The moment I lose the Fleet, I will probably capitulate. This, of course, assumes I am not locked up within the next 2 weeks of time so we shall see...



    castor troy -> RE: Naval Additions (2/5/2009 7:51:38 AM)

    sry wrong post



    John 3rd -> Wake Landings! (2/5/2009 4:50:54 PM)

    Look at the 'realistic' combat occurring on Wake! Wasn't this the scale of one of the Kyushu Landing set for November 1945? Cannot wait for AE...



    [image]local://upfiles/18041/68AD58223358425AB335CAADEF8E63F2.jpg[/image]



    John 3rd -> RE: Wake Landings! (2/5/2009 4:53:14 PM)

    Had a little panic set in on the turn above.  My new, shiny CVs were attacked at Nagasaki by 12 P-38 and 3 Liberators.  The CAP did the job but it made me nervous.  TF headed for Palau ASAP!




    castor troy -> RE: Wake Landings! (2/5/2009 7:26:43 PM)


    quote:

    ORIGINAL: John 3rd

    Look at the 'realistic' combat occurring on Wake! Wasn't this the scale of one of the Kyushu Landing set for November 1945? Cannot wait for AE...



    [image]local://upfiles/18041/68AD58223358425AB335CAADEF8E63F2.jpg[/image]



    if you look at your garrison then thereīs no need to cry about your opponentīs invasion. No chance to fit all those troops on Wake, not even your baseforces alone would have fit on that atoll I guess. Doesnīt mean Iīm doing it differently in my WITP games but when you say you canīt wait for AE then it has to be because of both sides, insane number of Japanese troops as the defender (with an even more insane fort level) and an insane number of Allied troops as the attacker.



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