RE: LR CAP (Full Version)

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Alfred -> RE: LR CAP (3/24/2009 7:47:55 AM)

John 3rd,

Sorry, Nemo is correct whereas your assertions do not stack up.  Consider the following.

1.  How many Japanese LCUs were stationed on Batan Islands or Pescadores before they were captured by Allied paras?  Just a fraction of the forces collected for the Indian hallucination would have sufficed to seafeguard these bases which based on your screen shot, clearly house Allied planes, no doubt some of the Allied fighters providing LRCAP over Formosa.

2.  You claim that for the preceding 7-10 days, 30-40 Allied fighters have provided LRCAP over all 3 Formosan bases.  Really?  So in fact there have been a total of up to 120 Allied fighters dedicated to just LRCAP over Formosa.  It is remarkable that the Allies have any other planes left to provide LRCAP over TFs or bases, or as escorts/sweeps.

3.  You provide a screen shot to show 130 allied fighters on LRCAP.  99 of them are dedicated USN fighters.  Thus USN fighters were providing cover over one hex - they cannot be so deployed to cover all 3 Formosan bases.

4.  You are aware that you could use Japanese Fast TF with combat ships to sneak in and out, wiithin 24 hours, LCUs onto Formosa from your so adjacent bases.  Oh I forgot such vessels are still struggling back from India with the KB.

5.  Not to mention the air units now sitting in India etc.

Alfred



FeurerKrieg -> RE: LR CAP (3/24/2009 7:56:18 AM)

I agree with Nemo and Alfred - but its your game John, play it as you see fit!



flaggelant -> RE: LR CAP (3/24/2009 1:17:04 PM)

the troops would have been most welcome at the landing sites, but what they are doing now is way cooler then just sitting and waiting for the enemy to land (by now getting to know john's offensive playing style, it was almost predictable [sm=00000289.gif])

and in time they to will distract several thousands of assaultstrength in order to liberate india (assuming dan will do so)

and to the AC around, Dan has been planning downfall for a while, so im assuming most of his aircraft are being used for the suport of this action. (don't forget about the UK airfleet)



modrow -> RE: LR CAP (3/24/2009 2:23:37 PM)

Flaggellant,

quote:

ORIGINAL: flaggelant

and in time they to will distract several thousands of assaultstrength in order to liberate india (assuming dan will do so)


you seem to assume that Dan cannot afford to just ignore what is going on in India and continue to go after Japan's throat directly. Even if I factor in the assumption that he is playing for VPs and the VP balance may be influenced by taking India (John - could you elaborate on this aspect of your invasion a bit ?), I believe Dan may very well have the possibility to ignore what is going on in india and use his assects to hit more essential targets. I even think that's what he should do.

Could you elaborate what makes you think my assessment is off ? I must be missing something important. Thanks.

Hartwig



Nemo121 -> RE: LR CAP (3/24/2009 3:20:04 PM)

What Dan should do is just contain the Japanese cheaply, bomb the resources and let them begin to starve.  Once this happens he will either have another happy hunting period on transports as they come to pick the starving troops up OR he can just have his small containment force go over onto the offensive given that Japanese strength will be reduced by 2/rds due to lack of supplies.

Hartwig, I don't think you're missing out on much in your assessment personally. It looks to me like the pace of unravelling of the Phillipines/China front is just accelerating massively due to the lack of troops for garrison duty.



witpqs -> RE: LR CAP (3/24/2009 3:28:20 PM)

I think most of you guys are missing the point of John's Indian adventure. It's fun!



John 3rd -> RE: LR CAP (3/24/2009 5:21:18 PM)

Wow.  Nice to see the commentary going back-and-forth.  The whole point of this AAR has been to allow that and see what happens.  This is an AAR dedicated to learning. I appreciate the thinking and differing views. 

I feel somewhat bad for my reaction a month or so ago when we had that blow-up over Downfall.  My fundamental issue is the life situation intrudes so much onto WitP that I get too much personally invested emotionally into the game.  Is that stupid??  Probably is but at least I recognize it.  Dan and I have emailed over that.  He felt the same way when his North Japan Invasion went so far awry from his expectation.  Remember how he wanted to quit at that point?

Perhaps you guys are right in my not seeing opportunities where they are.  I am so daunted by the Allied firepower that I feel completely helpless before it at this point.  Perhaps I am so pessimistic about doing anything it has really impacted my playing out the endgame of the war?

Michael and I had a good chat over the weekend and he hit the real nail on the head with this campaign.  It was lost in 1943 with my inept handling of the Japanese economy.  For MOST of 1943 my economy was either froze or limping along.  Supplies, resources, oil, and fuel never stockpiled as they should have.  I never built-up large numbers of reserve aircraft and my pilot quality is just as bad as the Japanese at this point in the real war.  It has taken Michael, Damian, and Brad to teach me how to improve in these areas of the game. 

I look forward to AE coming out!

A couple of specific points:
1.  LR CAP---Dan has well over 2,000 fighters deployed along the China Coast and from his CVs.  Keep in mind that the ENTIRE American AND British Fleet--from CV to CVE--appears to be in the hexes between Takao and Hong Kong.  He has 100s of fighters to spare for their missions.  I cannot train in China due to this massed Fighter situation.  Whenever I move anything into China bases (I usually thy this at 3-4 bases) I usually get in one strike and then all the bases are hit by 100s of 4EB and Figther Sweeps.

2.  His continued amphib assaults along the coast coming up from Singapore surprised me.  This was my fault in not seeing him continue with it.  I felt he would surely go after the Philippines or Java to cut me away from my final resource centers.  THERE was the risk in pulling my expendable army to India.  Dan has not fought the war from a very good economic vision.  Java was the next step after Singapore but he chose the direct route to Japan.  While still ensuring victory, it has allowed me to continue running resources and oil into Japan.  I just had an AK TF unload 50,000 resources at Nagasaki and I have an Oil TF carrying 100,000 Oil just starting to move from Legaspi to the Home Islands.

3.  As to the Japanese Fleet limping home.  That is no longer the case.  They are now tan, rested, and ready and are about to hit him where he isn't in the Central Pacific.  Had the game engine not kicked in with the constant DD refueling I should have been in this position about a week earlier.

Want to cover more in the discussion so readers can think on these thoughts and topics.  It is my earnest hope (as a Teacher) that people can learn from all these discussions and serious debate to improve their games and avoid the pitfalls that have befallen me during the course of the war!

I've asked Michael to jump on from his "Retired Economics Minister" position to add to the discussion.




ny59giants -> RE: LR CAP (3/24/2009 6:13:31 PM)

quote:

I've asked Michael to jump on from his "Retired Economics Minister" position to add to the discussion.


I've looked back in this AAR and it wasn't until 1 July 43 that I started to assist John with his economy (post #333 and on page 12). Other more experienced Japanese players helped me along. I was a novice at running the economy and without the help of Tracker, the learning curve would have been even steeper. So for the first 1 1/2 years of the war, John did not run his economy efficiently. There may be players who say he doesn't do enough micro-management of it now. [;)]

Some players have spoken of this game being mainly about logistics. It has taken me a while to come to the same conclusion. I think he only has two months worth of surplus Heavy Industry at this point. Back when I first helped him, I would do the actual transport orders and assigning priorities to salvage his economy and send the turn back. As I was re-reading earlier posting, he would not use his transports (AK/TK) in dual roles (oil to Japan and fuel back to bases). He has learned from this and I feel part of this AAR has been a learning tool for many players, which is a good thing.

John's strength is his aggressiveness when it comes to naval and airpower. His weaknesses are economic and land combat. I talk with him at least once per week on the phone for the last few months (late at night when both our cell phone minutes are free). I came up with the idea of a raid to Ceylon and India, but he took it the next step. With hindsight, it could have been done differently or not at all, but neither of us has played this far into a PBEM game and it was a roll of the dice.

IMO, the game ended with the Allies securing the two bases in the Sakhalin. It is now how much longer can he last?? My part time role has accomplished the two reasons I play WITP - have fun and learn. I have done so in many ways and picked up a friend along the way. [:)]



Panther Bait -> RE: LR CAP (3/24/2009 6:41:29 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd


2.  His continued amphib assaults along the coast coming up from Singapore surprised me.  This was my fault in not seeing him continue with it.  I felt he would surely go after the Philippines or Java to cut me away from my final resource centers.  THERE was the risk in pulling my expendable army to India.  Dan has not fought the war from a very good economic vision.  Java was the next step after Singapore but he chose the direct route to Japan.  While still ensuring victory, it has allowed me to continue running resources and oil into Japan.  I just had an AK TF unload 50,000 resources at Nagasaki and I have an Oil TF carrying 100,000 Oil just starting to move from Legaspi to the Home Islands.



Well, in Dan's defense, the Japanese are not really in a position at this point to produce much of anything that is a threat to the Allies anyway.

He has bases close enough to Japan to fly heavy fighter sweeps and escort, so all the fighters you produce are mostly planes for him to shoot down. His CAP, both land and sea based, have been shown to be pretty good against any bomber/kamikaze strikes you launch, although you do get in some good hits here and there.

Any new ships are points to eventually be sunk.

LCUs reinforcements are about at an end, right? So you're down to providing replacements.

You're primary benefits are producing supply and fuel (particularly supply since fuel only serves an increasingly less useful fleet), and he has been slowly working on the sources of supply (resources and heavy industry) in the Home Islands/China. In the near future, those to things will be harder to move anywhere useful.

Of course movement into Java/Borneo would have cut supply production, too, but I suspect that Dan is a little more comfortable with his land-based assets (LCUs and LBA) than his fleet. Other than the relatively short-distance amphib and manuevers and bombardments, his offensives seem to involve little fleet presence, particularly his CVs. Maybe he is a little CV gun-shy after the chaotic landings at Iwo Jima and Hokkaido/Sakhalin.

It may not be the conventional strategy, but it seems to be working for him.



paullus99 -> RE: LR CAP (3/24/2009 6:48:59 PM)

Actually, it seems to be very "Russian"-like in its execution. He has accepted losses far and above anything the allies (USA & Britain) would have taken in the real war. It is very much an "all or nothing" approach & is absolutely overwhelming at the point of impact.

John is a fencer - darting around, getting in his licks when he can - while his opponent is using a broadsword or battle-axe. All he has to do is get lucky once & John's fleet is toast.



John 3rd -> 1944 Economy (3/24/2009 6:55:21 PM)

Thanks Michael!  I return the thought as well.

PB--Your estimate of Dan's strengths and weaknesses is spot-on!  I LOVE the navy but suck at land and economics while Dan has a strong talent for Land and is conservative/weak with his Fleet.    He plays to his strengths through this strategy that has worked magnificently for him.  Am not sure of anyone else who has followed this path at all.  Every PBEM is different.  Isn't that the joy of the game?

My LCU are still coming in at a decent clip and they look to dry up about the end of January.  Basicially all the rest appear in either Japan or Manchuria.  Thanks to Damian I have enough armaments and vehicles to equip them when they appear.  Two months of HI Stockpile is good because it is still growing and since I am still getting convoys into the HOme Islands I figure that should reasonably expand to a third month before the wheels fall off.  Figure my economy will function until about May 1945 before collapsing.  That would be about the same in real history.

As to India the amount of AK-AP that are now showing up crossing the Bay of Bengal indicate that I have had an effect on his LCU.  Probably slight but an effect.  Perhaps this attack into India serves to protect Java for a few months?  Not sure about that--just conjecture.  He also has moved about 5-600 combat aircraft into the theatre as well.

Someone commented about uselessly expending aircraft in India.  That is not the case.  I brought 108 Army Fighters, 54 IJN Fighters, 81 IJN Bombers and about 50 Transports.  As the units get in trouble I disband into themselves and thus I will only end up losing one of each unit when all is said and done.  Roughly 250 aircraft would not make a difference over Formosa at the moment...
  



John 3rd -> RE: LR CAP (3/24/2009 6:56:40 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: paullus99

Actually, it seems to be very "Russian"-like in its execution. He has accepted losses far and above anything the allies (USA & Britain) would have taken in the real war. It is very much an "all or nothing" approach & is absolutely overwhelming at the point of impact.

John is a fencer - darting around, getting in his licks when he can - while his opponent is using a broadsword or battle-axe. All he has to do is get lucky once & John's fleet is toast.


THAT IS A PERFECT DESCRIPTION! I've more styled myself as a Robert E. Lee sort of counter-puncher where Dan is most certainly a Grant...



String -> RE: LR CAP (3/24/2009 7:26:30 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: paullus99


John is a fencer - darting around, getting in his licks when he can - while his opponent is using a broadsword or battle-axe. All he has to do is get lucky once & John's fleet is toast.


And one that knows that he can outlast the fencer...

A dangerous combination.



John 3rd -> RE: LR CAP (3/25/2009 1:03:51 AM)

I believe that is pretty much how Shattered Sword described the Japanese Navy...




SierraJuliet -> RE: LR CAP (3/25/2009 1:46:19 AM)

This AAR has been a very good read for many reasons.  One thing it, and previous AARs by John, does is provide a great insight into the way John operates.  John, by his own admission, and clearly from the way he plays adopts an aggressive approach executing his war plan.

With the end of this AAR in sight I am wondering about 2 things.

1.  There must be some AFBs out there contemplating taking on John as an opponent.  What strategies would you have in mind against John's style of play?

2.  John, I expect you must have some thoughts here too regarding your style of play.  Do you maintain your style and try and improve on your previous success or do you contemplate a different play style in order to throw off any pre-exising ideas your opponent has on how to deal with your onslaught?

Without letting the cat out of the bag anyone like to comment on future directions?



John 3rd -> RE: LR CAP (3/25/2009 6:46:26 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: SierraJuliet

This AAR has been a very good read for many reasons.  One thing it, and previous AARs by John, does is provide a great insight into the way John operates.  John, by his own admission, and clearly from the way he plays adopts an aggressive approach executing his war plan.

With the end of this AAR in sight I am wondering about 2 things.

1.  There must be some AFBs out there contemplating taking on John as an opponent.  What strategies would you have in mind against John's style of play?

2.  John, I expect you must have some thoughts here too regarding your style of play.  Do you maintain your style and try and improve on your previous success or do you contemplate a different play style in order to throw off any pre-exising ideas your opponent has on how to deal with your onslaught?

Without letting the cat out of the bag anyone like to comment on future directions?



Thank you Sir.

I know my strengths and weaknesses. This game has taught me so many things. We've detailed some over the last page or two of the AAR but I think the bottom line is now I have a much firmer understanding of the economy and HOW IT WORKS, am learning the Land Combat model better, and have a far greater appreciation of what comes late in the war.

Hyper-aggressive describes my style of play. There is a lot of Bobby Lee in me and that can be good (Battle of Chancellorsville) and that can be bad (Sharpsburg or Gettysburg). I had thought to be less agressive in the 2x2 but it has not been that way. Think I drive Brad nuts saying--HIT THIS---HIT THAT...How about attacking here??? It is in my nature...

All this being said I wonder what AE shall bring...



John 3rd -> Update (3/25/2009 6:53:22 AM)

I have not hidden any facet of the ordeal my family and I have gone through over the last two years.  I've mentioned recently that we were examining choices to make while laboring under my current terms of Probation and this is the note I sent to Dan and my 2x2 partners:


I've kept you guys in the loop regarding my legal excitement.  Paula and I went out with our attorney for dinner tonight.  We wanted to chat about making a decision to self-revoke my Probation or wait until our scheduled May 13th Hearing.  At issue is me being allowed to go home and be with my family.  We made the choice of waiting for the Hearing in the slim hope that the Judge will see reality and allow me back home.  If he rules against us then I self-revoke there in the Courtroom and accept whatever the consequences may be.

That is your "Legal Update" in the drama that John calls life.

On May 13th or so I will either move back in with my wife and sons or willingly end this and go to jail.  It is now that simple.  If things go well then there is no disruption to life.  If it goes poorly then I am looking at 6-24 months and paula (my wife) will do an entry in the AARs to let you guys know.

Dan, Paul Layne, and Michael know my case with it ups and downs quite well and they have been invaluable for advice and aide.  The 10-15 of you who have written me directly or PM'd me are great and I truly appreciate it and the support.  For those who don't know what to make of this or don't care, I won't come back to this topic again until mid-May!  (Hopefully) 



John 3rd -> Mines... (3/25/2009 7:01:38 AM)

A little action on Dec 3rd/4th:



[image]local://upfiles/18041/AF7C80103F1D428398CB7A42FACBA11F.jpg[/image]



FeurerKrieg -> RE: Update (3/25/2009 7:50:00 AM)

Best of luck with all your legal stuff, John!



Alikchi2 -> RE: Update (3/25/2009 7:55:31 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Feurer Krieg

Best of luck with all your legal stuff, John!


Seconded.

And, you know, the interior lines are getting tighter and tighter. You'll be able to perform your Lee impression antics more conveniently soon (especially if you can bring the larger bits of the Kaigun home).



modrow -> RE: Update (3/25/2009 8:59:08 AM)

John,

first of all let me stress that I wish you the very best for your legal quarrels. The conditions you were put under are hard, hardly bearable and possibly cruel, and I understand that you feel the need to fight them only too well. From my point of view, if this spills over to these threads and it is good for you to vent some steam here, I think you should do that at any time.

Relating to the fun aspect of the move to India:I agree that it was a spectacular move that will make you known on these forums as the guy who invaded India in 44. It was an excellent op for spectators from the entertainment point of view - but the most entertaining shows are not necessarily those with the highest educational value. Your entire AAR is highly entertaining- that's why I read it. But I cannot but bow to the power of the arguments of those who say that it may not have been wise strategically.

Frankly speaking though, if you want to stay within the civil war, based on the limited knowledge I have on that subject matter your style of play reminds me not of Lee, but of another CSA general, also called John. It's John Bell Hood I'm thinking of - with all his qualities and faults (and before getting angry about this comparison, look at the considerable qualities Hood had). Lee was far less aggressive IMHO, I think he would not have moved a substantial part of his limited force to a probably irrelevant theater and he may have handled the economic part better as well. Of course, both Lee and Hood knew a bit about ground combat [;)].

If you want to get around Hood's aggressiveness, take Sherman's approach to that problem. Leave a force to tie him down and do with the bulk of your troops what you wanted to do anyway. As others stated, this is what Dan can afford to do in India

Let me end this post by a quote I found which is attributed to Teddy Roosevelt:

"It is not the critic who counts, nor the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly...who spends himself in a worthy cause, who at best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly."

Just my 2cts.

Hartwig



paullus99 -> RE: Update (3/25/2009 10:47:53 AM)

Audacity - that was what the Indian Strike was. To keep up the historical analogies - it was like Early's Raid on Washington. It had the potential to become a huge distraction & perhaps even pull Dan back quite a bit into a defensive crouch.

At this point, I'm not writting anything off - John still has resources & a mostly intact fleet that can cause major problems to the Allied timetable. This AAR is a perfect example of a late war situation - and it has been handled superbly.



modrow -> RE: Update (3/25/2009 1:28:16 PM)

Paullus99,

quote:

ORIGINAL: paullus99
Audacity - that was what the Indian Strike was. To keep up the historical analogies - it was like Early's Raid on Washington. It had the potential to become a huge distraction & perhaps even pull Dan back quite a bit into a defensive crouch.


The potential for a huge distraction is what I do not see - which is why I asked flagellant why he assumed this operation might draw Dan's forces to India. Specifically, if you assume Dan's style is Russian-like.

You seem to see it, as others do, and I would like to repeat my question why you think so. Early's raid on Washington may have extended the duration of the civil war by a few months because it was aimed at the heart of the enemy. Why is the possession of India vital for Dan in this game ?

I would like to stress that I ask these questions as I try to learn, not to pick at the decision of a fellow player in his war, specifically if said player is likely to play much better than I do.

Thank you

Hartwig



John 3rd -> RE: Update (3/25/2009 4:42:26 PM)

John B. Hood?  Wow.  Does that mean I must lose an arm AND a leg?  Not too terribly far off how I feel in life right now!  Comparing India to Franklin is actually an excellent, but sad, comparison.  I would not have thought of it but it is much closer to the truth then my earlier thought.  Nice work!

Additionally thanks for the thoughts about venting on the Forum.  You guys have been a help and source of support.

That is a great quote by Teddy.  He is my favorite President and a true Renaissance Man.

As to India the attack will not get too far.  I cannot believe how Dan has left so much infantry in the country.  I've dropped Forts again at Bombay and am working to take Pangrim.  If I can get Pangrim and its supplies then that will help a bunch.  Got a turn to run so will do that and then post on any developments.

Dan is out for most of the day checking out the Chicamauga Battlefield for his magazine I think.  As editor and owner of it he has the nice excuse to go to pretty places that are historical and write it off as a business expense.  Cannot complain about that!



modrow -> RE: Update (3/25/2009 4:53:34 PM)

John,
quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Dan is out for most of the day checking out the Chicamauga Battlefield for his magazine I think.  As editor and owner of it he has the nice excuse to go to pretty places that are historical and write it off as a business expense.  Cannot complain about that!


Dan is checking out Chicamauga the day I mention J.B.Hood ? LOL ! Wasn't he the one who led the first of Longstreets divisions leaving the railroad towards that field on September 18 ? In any case, I think he lost his leg there. Btw, I thought he "just" lost control of his arm, afaik it was not amputated.

Hartwig



John 3rd -> RE: Update (3/25/2009 8:25:37 PM)

THAT is a relief!  I thought I was going to have to lose two limbs for this whole thing!  Funny thought regarding Dan and that battlefield on a day we are talking about it.

Combat Report
December 4, 1944

China
Wenchow
It would appear that Dan is going to land at Wenchow.  On the 3rd his BBs got caught in a minefield.  They have pulled out and surprisingly he left several STF present in the hex.  They are hit by a Kami--Torp Attack from Shanghai.  A CAP of 40 F6F try to fend off a strike of 59 F, 66 Torpedo Bombers, 38 Kami FB, and 48 Jill Kami.  At the normal high cost the Strike fights through the CAP and attacks a Cruiser--DD TF.  Several ships are hit but CA Wichita gets clocked by 2 Kamikaze Jills early on and, with the lessoning AA fire, my Frances and Peggy bore in and plant 4 Torps into her tender side!  Scratch 1 CA!  Course I lose over 100 planes to get that ship...

Shanghai
Dan hits this base with 24 F, 70 B-29, and 44 Liberators.  A total of 60 Jap Figthers intercept and a spirited fight occurs.  The Allies lose 14 planes and have twice that damaged while shooting down most of the CAP.  The AF is hit moderately.  I move another 150 Fighters and 100 bombers into the base and add 100 planes to Wenchow for another crack at the TF present.  There is a lone DD at Shanghai and it gets a Kamikaze mission of its own going to Wenchow...

Formosa
Takao
The Allies attack and barely get a 1-1 lowering the Forts to 7.  Following Nemo's advice (and having nothing to lose) I order a Shock Attack in conjunction with an air strike of 50 F covering 100 bombers hitting the Allied Troops for tomorrow.

Tokyo
The city is hit by a double Fighter Sweep and then 250 B-29 whallop 147 HI inside the city.

Convoy
I just ran a small Resource Convoy of 35,000 through the gap and it will be unloading in a couple of days.

Have a large Oil Convoy about to leave Tarakan with 175,000 Oil.  REALLY would love to get this through the lines.  Anyone got any ideas???




ny59giants -> RE: Update (3/25/2009 9:40:12 PM)

quote:

Have a large Oil Convoy about to leave Tarakan with 175,000 Oil. REALLY would love to get this through the lines. Anyone got any ideas???


Make sure the cloaking device is working when you get over warp 5. [sm=00000280.gif][sm=00000280.gif]



John 3rd -> RE: Update (3/25/2009 9:50:39 PM)

Thanks Michael.  Let me CLARIFY----Any USEFUL suggestions??!!  [8|]  



ny59giants -> RE: Update (3/25/2009 9:53:04 PM)

quote:

Let me CLARIFY----Any USEFUL suggestions??!! [8|]


Be specific!! [;)]



tocaff -> RE: Update (3/25/2009 11:29:02 PM)

A [sm=character0229.gif] escort won't work so how about trying a high (well the best speed possible) dash through the net where the LBA has the longest trip to reach and so maybe recon will miss the convoy.  Good luck in this run of the gauntlet.



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