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ColinWright -> RE: If Germany Invaded Britain... (4/16/2009 9:33:54 PM)
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Roosevelt was pushing the envelope about as hard as he could as far as getting America into the war -- and a lot of water passed under the bridge between the middle of 1940 and the end of 1941. Aside from everything else, in 1940 Russia was still Hitler's ally, but after mid-1941 she wasn't. This made for a polar switch in the position of the more doctrinaire far left. This group was a tiny minority, but it was a vocal minority, and its jump from uneasy quiescence to vociferous advocacy of intervention must have made a discernible difference.
I can't see America entering the war in 1940 -- unless, as Ben suggests, British resistance was prolonged into the winter. Roosevelt might decide to make the 1940 election a referendum on the issue. He'd be politically stupid to do so, but he might decide to take the chance, if the wave of sympathy for the brave Britons was strong enough.
This last -- British resistance being prolonged -- isn't out of the question. The big stumbling block for the Germans is getting past the R.N. There's obviously some mid-range where enough Germans get by the RN to establish a viable beachhead -- but not so many as to make a beachhead that can be expanded. Sort of a Gallipoli-like situation.
On the other hand, one has to recognize what a sea-change getting involved in a foreign war was for us back then. There had been World War One, but that had only reinforced what had been our traditional attitude up until then. We weren't the world's policeman. Foreigners did awful things to each other, and we liked to send food parcels and bandages -- but actually involve ourselves in the fight? Not likely.
Most likely, I see an acceleration of all the lend-lease, neutrality zone, etc measures that we historically took over the course of 1941. I don't see us moving to actual war until Germany has starting sinking American destroyers and stuff -- and they're going to avoid doing that for as long as they can. Finally, and in any case, we haven't much to send. We started rearming in 1940 as it was -- and weren't able to field significant combat forces until late 1942. That time line can't get accelerated all that much.
So we's a comin' -- if the Britons can just hang on until early 1942. Still, even a stated commitment to enter the war in Europe does create some interesting alternatives. Like, maybe we and our British partners decide it's best to keep on appeasing Japan, and they keep contenting themselves with slaughtering Chinese. The Pacific War never starts.
In 2009, we're still negotiating for a two-state solution in China. Japan is demanding that the Chinese Authority recognize the Japanese nature of the coastal provinces. People are decrying the sinister influence of AJPAC on Capitol Hill. Unreasonable Chinese are insisting that a Chinese State incorporate ALL of China above the Yangtze Gorges.
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