RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted

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herwin -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 10:23:52 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Joe Kemper Thanks Nikademus, I wasn't very clear in my previous response. If the carriers had not been available, I didn't know if the fleet would still have sortied but remained under land based air cover with hopes of engaging the enemy, they would have not been in port. The Battle Fleet would probably have moved to Lahaina Roads, which was too far for the KB to attack given their fuel situation.

DivePac88 -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 3:03:15 PM)
Also the Japanese admitted after the war that if they had had to Strike at Lahaina Roads, they would have had to scuttle their Destroyers, and probably Soryu on the way home because of lack of fuel.

BrucePowers -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 3:33:08 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Terminus If the battle fleet had sortied, they'd have been sunk at sea, rather than in port. There is one line of thought that that if the battle line sortied it would have been far worse. As Terminus said they would have been sunk at sea. The loss of life may have been much higher and none of those ships could have been salvaged.

HMAS Sydney -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 3:34:38 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: BrucePowers quote: ORIGINAL: Terminus If the battle fleet had sortied, they'd have been sunk at sea, rather than in port. There is one line of thought that that if the battle line sortied it would have been far worse. As Terminus said they would have been sunk at sea. The loss of life may have been much higher and none of those ships could have been salvaged. I believe a few of the ships the Japanese thought to have been sunk and lost to the Americans were there at the signing of the Japanese surrender.

Mike Scholl -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 3:48:18 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Joe Kemper Sorry if this has been discussed previously but I tried to search with no luck. What if Pearl Harbor had been alerted to the approach of the Japanese fleet and we knew the Japanese were under orders to attack. What would have been the response? If we knew it was a carrier strike force and its location and heading were known would the battleships have been sent to intercept or would they wait to join with the Lexington and/or Enterprise, if practical? Would the fleet try to remain within land based fighter protection? I am sure there are many variables to consider but I wonder what the response would have been based on the tactical and strategic doctrine of the US Navy at that time. Thank you Joe Biggest question would be "How much notice?" Probably we're talking less than 24 hours. Best that could be accomplished in that time would be to have the submarines sortie, and the rest of the fleet manned and ready and closed up for combat with AAA ammunition fused and available. Full fighter CAP would have broken up many Japanese attacks..., as the success for the few that historically got into the air demonstrated. Overall, damage would have been less, Japanese losses much higher....

BrucePowers -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 3:58:52 PM)
There is also the possibility that if Pearl Harbor was alerted, and the IJN knew it, the attack could have been recalled.

John 3rd -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 4:07:56 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Anthropoid quote: ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk They expected to have to fight their way in. IIRC once the signal 'climb niitaka' went out to KB on 12/2 or 12/3 they were on autopilot to attack. Yeah, but didn't the lead Japanese dude decide not to send the second (or third) wave primarily because they no longer had surprise? That's what it said in that old movie . . . In any event, the one class of things that I think would have been dramatically different had PH been alerted is that US soldiers sailors and airmen would not have been lounging around enjoying a lazy Sunday morning, all hands would've been at battle stations or general quarters or whatever, water-tight compartments would've been prepped, aircraft would've been on patrol or else fueled, armed and ready to launch, etc., etc. No matter what effect being in port or being out of port (or whether they would have sortied or not) would have had, being prepared for an attack in all the above noted ways surely would've made a very big difference? After all, isn't the advantage in most combat for the defender, except in those instances where a surprise attack catches the defender unprepared? Sure, Kimmel sortying might have led to more boats lost to U.S. but on the other hand if they were not all in port in the first place what is the chance that the Jap airplane formations would have been able to find them, let alone buzz-in in such effective and orchestrated high-densities and score so many devastating hits? Sure 15knt is not that fast but it will put distance between you and PH if it is sustained for a few hours and just being out there at sea, where the ability of the Japanese attack to find them would've been reduced could've led to some very different results. For that matter, if the KB leadership thought a flotilla of US BBs was heading their way, would they have just lingered in the area waiting for all their planes to complete their attacks on a (potentially in large part empty) Pearl Harbor? So many contingencies . . . I think the only things you can say with any certainty are: it would not have turned out the way it did; and more Japanese planes would likely have been shot down. US losses might not have been much different, and indeed as pointed out because of the benefit of the shallow harbor for subsequent recovery efforts, more ships might have been totally lost. But then again, if the departure of large fractions of the fleet occurred the evening before, giving 12 hours of steaming away from PH to some obscure spot 80 or 90 miles removed from the harbor, maybe very few high value ships would've been lost at all. The...Japanese...."DUDE?" Oh, my...[sm=character0229.gif]

John 3rd -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 4:10:44 PM)
I just got done reading Newt Gingrich's Days of Infamy and I have to admit that the alternative history was REALLY absorbing. What would have happened had Yamamoto actually commanded instead of Nagumo? What would have happened IF the 3rd Strike had been ordered? What might have taken place if the Japanese STAYED on the 8th? Think about "Bull" Halsey's aggressiveness. The book was pure popcorn to read...

John Lansford -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 4:15:23 PM)
In order for the KB to launch the attack in the first place, the ships had to be in the harbor. They got their last report the night before the attack, so the Pacific Fleet basically has to be alerted after that time for the scenario to work. First off, the crews are on shore leave the night before. Even an all hands emergency recall to every ship in the fleet is going to take a lot of time before the crews are back on board. Would the captains sortie their ships with minimal crews, knowing the harbor would be attacked the next morning? I'd think they probably would, not to fight, but to escape. Second, given perhaps no more than 18 hours warning, only Enterprise would be close enough to react. Probably the ships leaving Pearl would be ordered to rendezvous with Enterprise south of Oahu. Lexington is too far west to be of much use. Third, the harbor and air defenses would be fully manned and ready, planes dispersed or in the air, all ships not leaving would be at full watertight integrity and all guns manned, etc. The KB strike forces would find little to attack (Pennsylvania and some support ships, probably) and a fully alert base waiting on them.

Nikademus -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 4:37:49 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: HMAS Sydney It was better for the US to have their ships sunk at Pearl rather than the open ocean. Many of the ships at Pearl were only saved because they didn't have far to sink. In the open ocean they would have gone to the bottom and been lost. Two ships, Arizona and Oklahoma, were permanently lost despite being sunk "in harbor". Since I have doubts that KB could have sunk substantially more ships if the fleet was out at sea and maneuvering and fighting back, ultimately it might not have made any difference. Besides which, as i related earlier, I can't really conceive of a major fleet like Kimmel's simply sitting in harbor awaiting an attack.

HMAS Sydney -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 4:41:04 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Nikademus quote: ORIGINAL: HMAS Sydney It was better for the US to have their ships sunk at Pearl rather than the open ocean. Many of the ships at Pearl were only saved because they didn't have far to sink. In the open ocean they would have gone to the bottom and been lost. Two ships, Arizona and Oklahoma, were permanently lost despite being sunk "in harbor". Since I have doubts that KB could have sunk substantially more ships if the fleet was out at sea and maneuvering and fighting back, ultimately it might not have made any difference. Besides which, as i related earlier, I can't really conceive of a major fleet like Kimmel's simply sitting in harbor awaiting an attack. And how many of the other ones that were salvaged would have been if they had been on the open ocean?

Nikademus -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 4:50:58 PM)
my point on the damage, as i expressed in post 23 on this thread, was that I'm not sure the KB would have "sank" more than two battleships at sea in a best case result. This is assuming they managed to find and attack the battlefleet once it sortied.

Anthropoid -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 5:33:47 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: John 3rd The...Japanese...."DUDE?" Oh, my...[sm=character0229.gif] What? [&:] . . . It was a dude, not a chick right? [:D] Yes I know he had an actual name, bio, and all that, but I can't be bothered to remember every little detail of this stuff! Its a hobby for me not my profession! [:'(]

John Lansford -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 5:39:08 PM)
Assuming full watertight conditions, I doubt California would have sunk; she had had inspection plates removed between the triple bottom hulls and gradual flooding took place. That's one ship that would have survived. West Virginia was screwed no matter what happened. She took more torpedoes than could be accurately counted, so many that some hit in areas already destroyed by earlier hits. Oklahoma would have probably sunk no matter what as well; she took IIRC 4 torpedo hits in quick succession and all the DC parties would have done would be to counterflood to keep her from capsizing, not sink. Nevada's an interesting case; from the accounts and inspection of the damage it appears the near-misses are what caused her progressive flooding forward that required grounding. Had she been at sea would she have sunk? Assuming that Arizona does not get hit by a lucky bomb while maneuvering at sea, that leaves us with WV, Oklahoma and possibly Nevada that are lost at sea if they took the same damage that they took in harbor. Three BB's permanently sunk and who knows how many damaged, some severely, and then everything would depend on whether the KB launches more strikes against them. Remember, if they're at sea then there's no need to attack the numerous airbases on Oahu, so more Vals and Kates available to go after the ships.

Anthropoid -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 5:48:36 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: John Lansford Assuming full watertight conditions, I doubt California would have sunk; she had had inspection plates removed between the triple bottom hulls and gradual flooding took place. That's one ship that would have survived. West Virginia was screwed no matter what happened. She took more torpedoes than could be accurately counted, so many that some hit in areas already destroyed by earlier hits. Oklahoma would have probably sunk no matter what as well; she took IIRC 4 torpedo hits in quick succession and all the DC parties would have done would be to counterflood to keep her from capsizing, not sink. Nevada's an interesting case; from the accounts and inspection of the damage it appears the near-misses are what caused her progressive flooding forward that required grounding. Had she been at sea would she have sunk? Assuming that Arizona does not get hit by a lucky bomb while maneuvering at sea, that leaves us with WV, Oklahoma and possibly Nevada that are lost at sea if they took the same damage that they took in harbor. Three BB's permanently sunk and who knows how many damaged, some severely, and then everything would depend on whether the KB launches more strikes against them. Remember, if they're at sea then there's no need to attack the numerous airbases on Oahu, so more Vals and Kates available to go after the ships. Assuming of course that KB (a) found them at sea and (b) hit them the same number of times and in the same spots at sea as at port. The point that several of us are making is that: if you speculate about "what if US had been alerted" there is no sound basis to assume either (a) or (b). KB intended to attack Pearl Harbor, and their plan hinged on the fleet being at peace time anchor and indeed at a relaxed Sunday morning posture, right?

mdiehl -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 6:18:40 PM)
The Japanese would have been screwed if PH had been alerted, with the degree of screwing contingent on the amount of alert time. Scenario 1: Diamond Head radar contact report is taken seriously. Consequences: About the same in re ships damaged or sunk at berths. Severe losses among Japanese strike a.c. Moderate losses among Japanese fighter a.c. Moderate losses among American fighter a.c. Long term consequences: enhanced survival of RN's Eastern Fleet. Scenario 2: 24 Hours prep as "East Wind Rain" message is taken as an imminent threat to US. Consequences: US BB fleet is not found. Moderate losses among Japanese strike a.c. Moderate severe losses among Japanese and American fighter a.c. America trades Enterprise for two IJN fleet CVs.

witpqs -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 6:24:49 PM)
Two things. First, <groan> The History Channel did a show with some <groan> experts who wargamed the sortie. Was the referee Larry Bond or one of his guys? Dunno. Their conclusion was: worse than the actual event. Stay in port or get crushed even worse. IIRC they went with a couple hours notice, not 12 hours or something. Second thing is what about all those highly trained and motivated IJN subs whose very purpose in existing was the destruction of US battleships? Would they have found and tracked the battlefleet? Would they have made successful attacks? Picked off damaged ships? Hit some in the confusion of air attacks? Vectored in all the remaining subs? The world wonders.

John Lansford -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 7:09:23 PM)
If PacFleet had just a few hours' warning, then the planes would have been up and waiting, all AA guns manned, and the ships would have been at battle stations but probably still in harbor; no one wanted to risk having a ship sunk in the narrow shipping channel. That is probably the best scenario for the fleet other than just running south as fast as they could go. Nevada and California probably aren't sunk, Oklahoma and WV perhaps only badly damaged. Arizona was a lucky hit so she may or may not have been lost, and a massive dogfight takes place over Oahu with the Zeros getting the best of the US fighters but not without a lot of disruption to the bombers. More than a few hours' warning, though, and Pearl Harbor is nearly empty on December 7 with no major ships in sight. The IJN subs might have spotted them but given KB's position what could they do about it?

witpqs -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 7:26:21 PM)
The subs might be in position to attack! Also, we are presuming that the warning would have included the direction of the attack, but what if it didn't? Might the USN have been compelled to consider the possibility that the attack might be coming from the direction of kwajalain? "Running south!" is not a given. Also, some previous posts mentioned the fuel state of the KB and the fleet moving to Lahaina Roads as it was too far. Is that presuming too much knowledge being conveyed with any potential advanced warning? If you knew (only) that your fleet was due to be attacked by air <edited to add missing word 'air'>, thinking only of the two ports (at sea is a different question) do you want the defenses of Pearl Harbor or Lahaina Roads?

JWE -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 7:29:08 PM)
All these 'what ifs' are fascinating. But the US Navy was supposed to be professional, yeah?, and given Scapa Flow and Taranto, 'what if' they just rigged out anti-torpedo nets? (like they frikkin should have done dammit!)

witpqs -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 7:35:54 PM)
I suspect the best action (this is with all hindsight) would have been staying in PH fully alert and ready. Torpedo nets? Yeah! Why the heck didn't they already do that anyway? Serious question, BTW, I've never heard why.

anarchyintheuk -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 7:54:16 PM)
Their thinking went something like . . . no subs can access the harbor like Scapa Flow, harbor is too shallow for airborne torpedoes unlike Taranto, what me worry? They were wrong. I can't remember where I read it but I seem to remember a story about the efforts made to jury rig torpedo nets after the attack was made.

Nikademus -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 8:09:15 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: witpqs I suspect the best action (this is with all hindsight) would have been staying in PH fully alert and ready. Torpedo nets? Yeah! Why the heck didn't they already do that anyway? Serious question, BTW, I've never heard why. biggest problem i have with this scenario is that it's largely hindsight based. We know the level of damage that KB could and did do to the fleet, but at the time such negative thoughts would not IMO be in Kimmel's mind (specifically....."OMG.....we are going to get pummeled, numerous ships will be sunk, its best to sit in harbor THAT way we can later in the war salvage most of the sunken ships") Just wasn't the mindset at the time vis-vis: airpower. Combined with that would be the traditional response to an alert of attack on a major base.......in almost all cases the ships will raise steam and bug out. They won't sit there and present themselves as immobile targets. Torpedo nets didn't have a reliable history and the Navy would not simply "trust" that the Army airforce would protect them in full. Sortie would be the only option, just as Nevada's captain's first instinct was to do. Better to fight at sea where one can maneuver to avoid damage and fight back. If Herwin is right and KB could be sent a message in time, most likely no attack would result. Nagumo would be too worried about not knowing where the US carriers were.

anarchyintheuk -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 8:26:52 PM)
Nik, Iasked this earlier . . . . do you know if Nevada left on its own initiative or per pre-existing orders (i.e. in case of air attack bugger off asap)?

John Lansford -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 8:36:34 PM)
Torpedo nets were not used in Pearl Harbor because they would have restricted the already cramped area for ships to move around in. The shallow depth of the harbor also argued against needing torpedo nets. If the direction of the attack wasn't known (but they had verifiable info that an attack WAS going to take place the next morning), I think their response would be to sortie and head east. Lahaina Roads is an anchorage but had little if any facilities; it's really just a sheltered location for the ships to avoid storms. If the KB had somehow reached them there any ships sunk would have been as lost as if they had been sunk at sea.

John 3rd -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 9:26:54 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Anthropoid quote: ORIGINAL: John 3rd The...Japanese...."DUDE?" Oh, my...[sm=character0229.gif] What? [&:] . . . It was a dude, not a chick right? [:D] Yes I know he had an actual name, bio, and all that, but I can't be bothered to remember every little detail of this stuff! Its a hobby for me not my profession! [:'(] I thoroughly understand, however, it is my profession! [:D]

Nikademus -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 9:28:51 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk Nik, Iasked this earlier . . . . do you know if Nevada left on its own initiative or per pre-existing orders (i.e. in case of air attack bugger off asap)? While i don't have a direct quote i believe it was standard operating procedures. I note from one dusty tomb i own that after the attack other ships also got under way and fled to sea in order to not present themselves as sitting duck targets as well as to "look for the enemy fleet" (This included CL's St Louis, Phoenix, and Detroit, and destroyers Monaghan, Tucker, Bagley, Dale, Henley and Phelps.) Like i said, it just wouldn't make sense for a fleet, before or after a threat of air attack, to sit in harbor. Thinking of Taranto.....same thing. Operational warships after that raid fled the harbor to safer waters. Most if not all navies considered a ship at it's most vulnerable when at anchor in a harbor. (again demonstrated by US CV policy for the months immediately following the PH attack. CV TF's were to only enter PH at any one moment and only long enough to fuel and re-provision and then....back out to sea. You don't build a big expensive navy and then leave it for another navy to use as target practice. I don't care how strong the defenses are in theory. Nor do i think the USN naval command would think that way. A warship fights best when at sea, with room to maneuver and fight and fully manned at battlesations. Only a defeated, disabled or morale poor navy hides in port in the face of attack. (This of course does not include sitting in port to AVOID attack as was seen in large part during WWI)

Anthropoid -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 9:47:51 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk Nik, Iasked this earlier . . . . do you know if Nevada left on its own initiative or per pre-existing orders (i.e. in case of air attack bugger off asap)? I seem to recall it was a junior officer with just a skeleton crew who took the initiative. But given I couldn't even remember the name of the Japanese Admiral in charge of Kido Butai, I wouldn't trust that memory too closely ;)

Terminus -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 10:26:53 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Nikademus quote: ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk Nik, Iasked this earlier . . . . do you know if Nevada left on its own initiative or per pre-existing orders (i.e. in case of air attack bugger off asap)? While i don't have a direct quote i believe it was standard operating procedures. I note from one dusty tomb i own that after the attack other ships also got under way and fled to sea in order to not present themselves as sitting duck targets as well as to "look for the enemy fleet" (This included CL's St Louis, Phoenix, and Detroit, and destroyers Monaghan, Tucker, Bagley, Dale, Henley and Phelps.) Like i said, it just wouldn't make sense for a fleet, before or after a threat of air attack, to sit in harbor. Thinking of Taranto.....same thing. Operational warships after that raid fled the harbor to safer waters. Most if not all navies considered a ship at it's most vulnerable when at anchor in a harbor. (again demonstrated by US CV policy for the months immediately following the PH attack. CV TF's were to only enter PH at any one moment and only long enough to fuel and re-provision and then....back out to sea. You don't build a big expensive navy and then leave it for another navy to use as target practice. I don't care how strong the defenses are in theory. Nor do i think the USN naval command would think that way. A warship fights best when at sea, with room to maneuver and fight and fully manned at battlesations. Only a defeated, disabled or morale poor navy hides in port in the face of attack. (This of course does not include sitting in port to AVOID attack as was seen in large part during WWI) You own a dusty TOMB? Does it come with its own Lara Croft?[:'(]

Nikademus -> RE: Pearl Harbor Alerted (4/29/2009 10:30:47 PM)
i wish. I hear Angelina is single again. [:D]

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