RE: Pearl - one hour alert (Full Version)

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Mike Scholl -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/3/2009 1:10:05 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: John Lansford
Now, the real question is, would it have made that much of a difference?  I think not; the Japanese planned for a 'no surprise' event and the strike force was prepared to deal with a CAP and alerted bases.  The main part of the fleet could not escape in an hour, but perhaps ships like Oklahoma and WV would not have taken as much damage as they did due to heavier AA and more fighters disrupting the attacks.



I think it would have made more of a difference thant people suppose. Perhaps not in the damage recieved by the US, but in the losses taken by the Japanese. KB's pilots and aircrews may well have been the best in the world on that morning..., and would have pressed home their attacks regardless of opposition. And that's the problem.

Those aircrews were an extreamly sharp, but brittle weapon. They were literally irreplaceable under the Japanese training system. And the aircraft themselves weren't in a much better state. No Kates were being produced at all at the time. About 30 aircraft and aircrews were lost in conditions of complete suprise---that could easily have been 150 or more with the US prepared and ready. Enough to make 3 of KB's carriers virtually worthless for lack of airgroups.



vettim89 -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/3/2009 1:18:26 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mike Scholl


quote:

ORIGINAL: John Lansford
Now, the real question is, would it have made that much of a difference?  I think not; the Japanese planned for a 'no surprise' event and the strike force was prepared to deal with a CAP and alerted bases.  The main part of the fleet could not escape in an hour, but perhaps ships like Oklahoma and WV would not have taken as much damage as they did due to heavier AA and more fighters disrupting the attacks.



I think it would have made more of a difference thant people suppose. Perhaps not in the damage recieved by the US, but in the losses taken by the Japanese. KB's pilots and aircrews may well have been the best in the world on that morning..., and would have pressed home their attacks regardless of opposition. And that's the problem.

Those aircrews were an extreamly sharp, but brittle weapon. They were literally irreplaceable under the Japanese training system. And the aircraft themselves weren't in a much better state. No Kates were being produced at all at the time. About 30 aircraft and aircrews were lost in conditions of complete suprise---that could easily have been 150 or more with the US prepared and ready. Enough to make 3 of KB's carriers virtually worthless for lack of airgroups.


Excellant point! About 20 of the 30 aircraft were lost in the second wave after the AAA was alerted. Considering that many ships were already incapacitated by that point, it is safe to assume that the number of aircraft lost would have been at least trippled. Also, even a modest CAP would have forced the A6M2 to engage in ATA combat vice strafing airfields. Ergo the USAAF would have lost far fewer a/c. I still think the USN would have been dealt a crippling blow, but the Japanese would have paid a much higher cost.

On a side note, what would have been the political ramifications? Pearl Harbor was a galvanizing influence for teh US populace in WWII. How would have the horendous losses suffered at Iwo Jima and Okinawa been viewed without the PH influence?



Nikademus -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/3/2009 1:23:24 AM)

I doubt it would have been that much. Its a common tendency to assume that if you add more guns, more planes etc, then casualties will exponentially increase, but thats not often the case.



John Lansford -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/3/2009 1:59:47 AM)

I'm wondering just how many fighters would have gotten off the ground to engage the attack force.  An hour is not a lot of time, and the pilots were either still on shore leave or sleeping in.  How many would get to their planes in time to take off at all?



Nikademus -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/3/2009 2:11:57 AM)

Probably not a huge number. I'm basing this as well on the projection that the discussed hour period will suffer inevitable inertia. There would also be issues with what to CAP and where. It would probably be a bit of a mess. An hour simply isn't enough time to organize a coherent defense, much less in one that has been in peacetime status. The opposite of the ready status seen during your typical BoB day.



Mike Scholl -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/3/2009 2:23:45 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: vettim89
On a side note, what would have been the political ramifications? Pearl Harbor was a galvanizing influence for teh US populace in WWII. How would have the horendous losses suffered at Iwo Jima and Okinawa been viewed without the PH influence?



I doubt that being caught in an "attempted sneak attack" would have made any difference in US public opinion. Now had the Japs had the balls to declare War on Saturday the 6th, then being caught with our pants down at Pearl Harbor on the morning of the 7th would have had Roosevelt between a rock and a hard place.



John Lansford -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/3/2009 2:25:53 AM)

That's what I'm thinking too; even a general alert call would get a lot of "WTF, another stupid drill" from everyone involved.  The ships, being more disciplined and trained for such things, would be in better shape.



Nikademus -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/3/2009 2:31:04 AM)

He's right. The Japanese actually were not attempting a Sneak Attack but a Suprise Attack timed to go off shortly after a formal declaration of war. Inefficiencies at the Japanese consolate delayed the delivery to IIRC, Mr. Hull. Hence the attack was already under way when it was delivered.

That said.....i can't see how it would have made any tangible difference. Americans would have been just as angered, realizing that they'd been "set up" for a sucker punch.....which is i gather EXACTLY how the Roosevelt administration would have played it had the Japanese timing gone as planned.

That then begs the quesiton.....why did Yamamotto and the GHQ go with such a thing? It may be perhaps a piece of old world thinking. Japan had no qualms about a true sneak attack on the Russians in 1904 but the world was a far different place then.....bigger for one thing. News traveled slower and Russia already had a load of internal problems. The area under attack was also far removed from central Russian living and concerns. In a nutshell, that scenario just didn't apply to the United States in 1941. There was also the simple tactical reasoning. The whole reason for the plan was to deliver a knockout blow to the US Pacific Fleet allowing Japan a free hand in the SRA. That was the #1 priority. So it may be that Yammamotto was hoping that by "technically" delivering a suprise attack 'after' war was declared it would at least be seen as more legit....but ultimately it was the attack itself that counted. The only situation that might produce a tangible difference would be a situation where America has to be the one to declare war first....and thx to Hitler, we'll never know for sure how that would have played out. (in political terms at least)



John 3rd -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/3/2009 3:10:02 AM)

I would wager that the biggest difference in the Attack would have been much higher casualties for Japan.  Imagine Japanese losses for the Second Wave being equaled by the 1st Wave.  Figure Japanese plane and pilot losses would have been closer to 60-70 planes.  Those losses could have made for a long-term difference with the KB.

Allied losses might have been lighter but I imagine they would have still been severe.  The other note to the Fleet side is that they would have tried to clear the Harbor and get moving.  That was procedure for the time and they would have tried it.  It is counter-intuitive to decide to stay IN the confines of the Harbor when you know an attack is coming.  A good number of DDs and Nevada would have been able to move and imagine what might have been underway by the time of the Second Wave...




Wirraway_Ace -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/3/2009 4:11:08 AM)

A couple of thoughts.

Washington felt it had warned PH and PI that war was likely.

US Military Planners had conceived of an aerial attack on PH and wargamed it.

The two local commanders did their own threat analysis (as generals and admirals are wont to do) with their own staff and came up with a plan that played into the hands of the Japanese attack.

The only way an hour would have made a significant difference is if somebody like Halsey was in command at the time, and really had his staff and units on wartime footing.

Also, keep in mind when blaming Kimmel, Stark and MacArthur for their apparent belief that the Japanese would have to be crazy to attack and their half-hearted preparations for such an attack—they were completely correct in their assessment. The war that Japan never should have started went just the way most leaders predicted and resulted in the annihilation of the naval, air and ground forces of Imperial Japan.



Mynok -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/3/2009 4:20:09 AM)


Isn't that a rule one should learn from most military history? That one should never discount the possibility that one's enemy is insane?



Wirraway_Ace -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/3/2009 4:33:46 AM)

Yes. But it is still very difficult to explain to your soldiers why you have them constantly on alert...



Anthropoid -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/3/2009 4:55:07 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Wirraway_Ace

A couple of thoughts.

Washington felt it had warned PH and PI that war was likely.

US Military Planners had conceived of an aerial attack on PH and wargamed it.

The two local commanders did their own threat analysis (as generals and admirals are wont to do) with their own staff and came up with a plan that played into the hands of the Japanese attack.

The only way an hour would have made a significant difference is if somebody like Halsey was in command at the time, and really had his staff and units on wartime footing.

Also, keep in mind when blaming Kimmel, Stark and MacArthur for their apparent belief that the Japanese would have to be crazy to attack and their half-hearted preparations for such an attack—they were completely correct in their assessment. The war that Japan never should have started went just the way most leaders predicted and resulted in the annihilation of the naval, air and ground forces of Imperial Japan.


Not to mention the unconditional surrender of the entire nation, and the complete overhaul and rebuilding of the society on U.S. dictated terms followed by effectively permanent occupation.

In short, not only did they lose at Total War, they Totally Lost the War. I doubt that very many people foresaw just how far the U.S. would go to achieve total victory . . . Heck! the use of weapons with power scarcely imagined at the outset of hostiltiies!

You could call that crazy, or you could call it 'unimaginative' as someone said up above.



crsutton -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/3/2009 5:09:15 PM)

The whole system was so fossilized and layered with command delays that I doubt that one hour would have made any difference. Two hours, perhaps but not one. 
By the second strike, American AA was much more alert and prepared and did some damage to the attacker but so many guns and gunners were already on the bottom and AA alone would not have made that much difference.

At Guadacanal, a one hour notice was deliverance but it would not have helped at Pearl.



Mike Scholl -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/3/2009 5:34:10 PM)

Probably a more realistic scenario would be something on the order of:

Noon, Saturday, December 6th..........Submarine USS "Gatorbait" excercising north of Hawaii spots KB's approach.
1:30 PM, Saturday, Dec. 6th............."Gaitorbait" gets off sighting report to Pearl Harbor.
1:32 PM, Saturday, Dec. 6th.............Pearl Harbor requests a confirmation of "Gatorbait's" sighting report.
1:34 PM, Saturday, Dec. 6th.............Frustraited Captain of "Gatorbait" radios "Half the Goddamned Jap Fleet headed Yours.."
1:35-6PM, Saturday the 6th..............Debate in message Center over whether to believe report or reccommend Court Marshal rages
6:00 PM, Saturday, Dec. 6th.............Message given to Short and Kimmel.
8:00 PM, Saturday, Dec. 6th.............All leaves cancelled, Full Alert ordered, Washington informed.
8:01-2AM, Saturday the 6th.............Complete chaos reigns on Oahu as everyone reacts in whatever way he thinks best to the news
4:00 AM Sunday, Dec. 7th...............Things settle down, and continued activity starts to show a sense of purpose
6:00 AM Sunday, Dec. 7th...............Fleet manned and ready, raising steam.  Patrol planes launched. CAP reading of flightline.
7:00 AM Sunday, Dec. 7th...............Several ASW DD's sortie to clear the area around the Harbor mouth.  CAP launched.
7:10 AM Sunday, Dec. 7th...............Washington wants clarification, orders "no offensive moves" to be made.  Fleet sortie delayed.
7:30 AM Sunday, Dec. 7th...............Incoming Japanese A/C sighted by radar and Patrol Planes.  Remainder of CAP scrambled.
8:00 AM Sunday, Dec. 7th...............Visitors arrive to warm reception, America is now in WW II



Knavey -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/3/2009 7:51:30 PM)

1 hour would be plenty of time for ships to be at GQ.  AT the minimum, it would have made the Japanese losses to AAA around the ships much more severe.



JWE -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/3/2009 9:24:44 PM)

I'm still wondering about why they didn't just rig out nets. This 'PH was too shallow' stuff is pretty much horse patootie. Dec. 7 was way after Taranto. The average BB had a draft of 36 - 37 feet. Nets came in "falls" of 40 feet. Average depth of Ford Island anchorage was 50 - 60 feet. It don't take a rocket scientist.



witpqs -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/3/2009 9:50:41 PM)

Then I guess it had to be general disrespect for the notion of a port attack right there. Whether from disrespect of the adversary or disrespect of the idea itself ('too far away', whatever), who knows?



Nikademus -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/4/2009 12:38:51 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: JWE

I'm still wondering about why they didn't just rig out nets. This 'PH was too shallow' stuff is pretty much horse patootie. Dec. 7 was way after Taranto. The average BB had a draft of 36 - 37 feet. Nets came in "falls" of 40 feet. Average depth of Ford Island anchorage was 50 - 60 feet. It don't take a rocket scientist.


Torpedo nets had a spotty record. Coupled with a belief that the harbor was torp proof and a general tendancy to underestimate the Japanese, even discount them as 2nd class bafoons and you risk a 1st class case of "Boot to the Head."



mikemike -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/4/2009 1:18:51 AM)

I'd like to make a few points.

1. This being early Sunday morning, a lot of the officers would still be feeling the effects of the Saturday evening bash. This would tend to lead to muddled and sluggish reactions all around.

2. The US forces "knew" that Japanese aircraft were made out of bamboo and rice paper and flown by nearsighted pilots. I suggest that even a proper CAP might have been caught in sloppy formations and have employed unsuitable tactics, enough to limit its effectiveness.

3. As the BB's were moored in double rows, half of them were immune from torpedo attack. Had they been in the process of leaving the harbor, they might all have been targeted by torpedoes, sinking more of them.



Hornblower -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/4/2009 2:14:47 AM)

Assuming that the last hour isn’t spent in debate I think the following is reasonable in the 60min grace given.

1-     On the ships, Battle stations would be manned, everyone awake, AA mounts pointing skyward, ammunition fused,  and in most cases full watertight integrity.  Steam raised to power the mounts and Pumps.
2-     Conservative guess would say 10% of the Available fighters would be airborne.   

And I agree with an earlier poster that the damage to the second wave would now be dealt out to the first and then some..



engineer -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/4/2009 5:01:48 PM)

I'd second most of John Lansford's assessments.  One point that I'd like to amplify is the difference between response to the 1st and 2nd waves.  In the response to the 1st Wave, the Americans would have more flak and more resilience to damage by having the ships at General Quarters.  Against the 2nd Wave, the US would plausibly had more surviving planes in the air. 

In net, I think:
- More flak, slightly lower Japanese bombing accuracy so less damage to the Pacific Fleet
- More fighters in the air, leading to slightly more air to air victories for the American defenders
- More Japanese strike aircraft shot down from flak and CAP with the associated loss of the air crews.
- The bottom line would remain a decisive Japanese victory that disables the battle line of the US Pacific Fleet.   



skrewball -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/4/2009 7:11:48 PM)

Well one thing you really have to take into account is the human factor. You could say that an hour was enough to get all the ships up to manned status but you forget that we weren't on a war footing!

How many of you served in the military? Can you imagine back then that one random Sunday someone came in and told you to get your gear because we were about to be attacked? Disbelief, rumor and down right malingering would have probably occurred. Formations would have been held, information would have tried to be deceminated and ultimately may have added to the casualty count.

Even with an hour notice...bombs falling would have been the quickest and most efficent way to get troops in the fight.



Hornblower -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/4/2009 10:37:47 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: skrewball

Well one thing you really have to take into account is the human factor. You could say that an hour was enough to get all the ships up to manned status but you forget that we weren't on a war footing!

How many of you served in the military? Can you imagine back then that one random Sunday someone came in and told you to get your gear because we were about to be attacked? Disbelief, rumor and down right malingering would have probably occurred. Formations would have been held, information would have tried to be deceminated and ultimately may have added to the casualty count.

Even with an hour notice...bombs falling would have been the quickest and most efficent way to get troops in the fight.


i hadn't thought of that. One would have to ass-u-me that there was a sence of urgency in that 60min...



Knavey -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/5/2009 6:16:46 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: skrewball

Well one thing you really have to take into account is the human factor. You could say that an hour was enough to get all the ships up to manned status but you forget that we weren't on a war footing!

How many of you served in the military? Can you imagine back then that one random Sunday someone came in and told you to get your gear because we were about to be attacked? Disbelief, rumor and down right malingering would have probably occurred. Formations would have been held, information would have tried to be deceminated and ultimately may have added to the casualty count.

Even with an hour notice...bombs falling would have been the quickest and most efficent way to get troops in the fight.


Don't quite agree with this assessment.

I hour is PLENTY of time for a naval ship to get to GQ...when the gongs go off, there is no malingering, formations, no rumors. Disbelief...yes.

It would have been controlled chaos, and to those that are on the outside looking in on a GQ on a ship it may seem like MASSIVE chaos, but it is a very coordinated effort.

Its not a "muster outside your barracks" moment. It is a "move directly to your duty station" which would have included every vital station on the ship necessary to fight her effectively.

Sure there would have been guys gone on shore leave and whatnot, but ships are overstaffed for a reason. We never let more than 1/3 of the crew ashore at any given time and although it would be more difficult to fight fires and flooding with one third of your crew gone, with AA batteries fully manned prior to the attack, the price the attackers would have paid would have probably been much greater.



castor troy -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/5/2009 8:07:06 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Knavey

quote:

ORIGINAL: skrewball

Well one thing you really have to take into account is the human factor. You could say that an hour was enough to get all the ships up to manned status but you forget that we weren't on a war footing!

How many of you served in the military? Can you imagine back then that one random Sunday someone came in and told you to get your gear because we were about to be attacked? Disbelief, rumor and down right malingering would have probably occurred. Formations would have been held, information would have tried to be deceminated and ultimately may have added to the casualty count.

Even with an hour notice...bombs falling would have been the quickest and most efficent way to get troops in the fight.


Don't quite agree with this assessment.

I hour is PLENTY of time for a naval ship to get to GQ...when the gongs go off, there is no malingering, formations, no rumors. Disbelief...yes.

It would have been controlled chaos, and to those that are on the outside looking in on a GQ on a ship it may seem like MASSIVE chaos, but it is a very coordinated effort.

Its not a "muster outside your barracks" moment. It is a "move directly to your duty station" which would have included every vital station on the ship necessary to fight her effectively.

Sure there would have been guys gone on shore leave and whatnot, but ships are overstaffed for a reason. We never let more than 1/3 of the crew ashore at any given time and although it would be more difficult to fight fires and flooding with one third of your crew gone, with AA batteries fully manned prior to the attack, the price the attackers would have paid would have probably been much greater.




which brings up the question of how many AA batteries (on the ships) were really not manned?



Knavey -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/5/2009 8:56:36 PM)

I think there would be a BIG difference between manned before the bombs started falling, and after your ship had been hit.  Bomb hits change everything...smoke filled corridors, fires, flooding and casualties would/did change the scope of what was manned and what was not.  They had guys manning guns that had never done it before.

Had everyone had time to get to their proper places, and doing the job they were trained to do (instead of just finding a gun that needed help), the outcome may have been the same, but in all likelihood it could only have gotten better.




witpqs -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/5/2009 8:58:03 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: castor troy

which brings up the question of how many AA batteries (on the ships) were really not manned?


It's more than just that, it's also when were they 100% effectively manned. Crews had to break open ammunition lockers. It's likely than mounts became effective piecemeal on any given ship.



bobogoboom -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/5/2009 9:08:43 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: John Lansford

Given an hour of warning, some things could have been accomplished.

Nevada and some other ships could have escaped out of the harbor.

More fighters would have been available to be up and ready to intercept the bombers.

Ships would have been at Battle Stations, and presumably watertight integrity established on all ships that could do so (California an exception).

More AA guns would have been manned and ready.

Now, the real question is, would it have made that much of a difference?  I think not; the Japanese planned for a 'no surprise' event and the strike force was prepared to deal with a CAP and alerted bases.  The main part of the fleet could not escape in an hour, but perhaps ships like Oklahoma and WV would not have taken as much damage as they did due to heavier AA and more fighters disrupting the attacks.


if they had gotten out of the harbor they would have just been sunk in deep water and not have been able to be salvaged.



Historiker -> RE: Pearl - one hour alert (5/5/2009 10:40:27 PM)

About the "they knew it before and didn't do nothing"...

I doubt there was ANY war in modern history that came without any warning. Even the biggest surprise attacks saw intensive enemy recon actions, troop concentrations at the borders and maybe even border violations and skirmishes.
Historians and interested persons then see this events as evidence that everything was know - if they want it so.




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