RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (Full Version)

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SuluSea -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/23/2009 7:34:31 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: aztez

Central pacific (january 2nd and 3rd 1942)

I have been unloading at Christmas Island while Dave kept busy elsewhere with his operations,

There have been few submarines around and those have sunk few ships. Now it seems we are getting the attention of IJN carriers. I noticed this in operational report..

"TF 218 snooped by Japanese Aircraft at 174,141 near Christmas Island"
"PBY-5 Catalina reports radio transmissions at 174, 141 near Christmas Island"

So it seems some of his carriers have fueled at Truk and are heading towards this area. (The red circle indicate the estimate are of these carriers)

Lesson: Really check those reports since they can reveal a lot of stuff. Not directly but indirectly.

[image]local://upfiles/15617/2764E1EC7C494E69A0195C276FEF491B.jpg[/image]

I'm just wondering for future reference Aztez , how can you tell you're not being snooped by a I-400 submarine based plane as opposed to the enemy carriers are steaming east?

Enjoying the AAR!



aztez -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/23/2009 8:08:43 PM)

jimh009: I'am not waving any white flags there. Allthough It is getting bad just hope that he runs out of fuel there.

Lets hope your bullet theory is spot on! Otherwise instead of fighting them we will cooking rice for the japanese people.

I have reading your ongoing battle vs AI. It is kind of mental health medicine since you seem to be doing good job.

Btw, one question which I did not found on manual (or than again missed it). Do Amc tender minefields even just disbanded in port or do they have to be in "support" mode or such?

SuluSea: Good question. This time around I guess it was more like instinct. I mean he had his carriers near Rabaul and Noumea.

Than I lost contact with the "nothern part of the KB". I assumed it went to Truk for refit. (I guess it did)

Dave submarines actually hit few vessels near Christmas Island. Add the fact that Christmas island area is quite close and I didn't have adequate aircover there yet.

So, basically this was no risk and maybe high reward mission.

..but without those intel reports I would not have reacted to be as "paranoid". In overall terms I really take Dave "seriously" due to my knowledge of his playing skills.

As for the raid well he sunk two AK's there which were unloading supplies. The combat.txt only showed one but there was two ships delivering goods.

I also sent submarines into area and as said I had an view of Akagi. Too bad those destroyers were aggressive and "she" got away.

Basically the assumption was simple as that. Nothing special and 1/10 times you might guess the moves right. Basically it could have been an recon from submarine too.

PBEM is just as much warfare on the game mechanics and just as much mental warfare. I have an feeling that Dave has build up an "profile" regarding my styles of gaming too.



cantona2 -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/23/2009 8:58:25 PM)

Thoroughly enjoying this and learning much from it.



TAIL GUNNER -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/24/2009 4:31:46 AM)

quote:

Do Amc tender minefields even just disbanded in port or do they have to be in "support" mode or such?


I did read this in the manual yesterday so it is still fresh in my mind.
Look on page 134, section 6.6.1.2.2

Enjoying your AAR!

ChadG



jimh009 -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/24/2009 4:54:38 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: aztez

jimh009: I'am not waving any white flags there. Allthough It is getting bad just hope that he runs out of fuel there.

Lets hope your bullet theory is spot on! Otherwise instead of fighting them we will cooking rice for the japanese people.

I have reading your ongoing battle vs AI. It is kind of mental health medicine since you seem to be doing good job.

Btw, one question which I did not found on manual (or than again missed it). Do Amc tender minefields even just disbanded in port or do they have to be in "support" mode or such?

SuluSea: Good question. This time around I guess it was more like instinct. I mean he had his carriers near Rabaul and Noumea.

Than I lost contact with the "nothern part of the KB". I assumed it went to Truk for refit. (I guess it did)

Dave submarines actually hit few vessels near Christmas Island. Add the fact that Christmas island area is quite close and I didn't have adequate aircover there yet.

So, basically this was no risk and maybe high reward mission.

..but without those intel reports I would not have reacted to be as "paranoid". In overall terms I really take Dave "seriously" due to my knowledge of his playing skills.

As for the raid well he sunk two AK's there which were unloading supplies. The combat.txt only showed one but there was two ships delivering goods.

I also sent submarines into area and as said I had an view of Akagi. Too bad those destroyers were aggressive and "she" got away.

Basically the assumption was simple as that. Nothing special and 1/10 times you might guess the moves right. Basically it could have been an recon from submarine too.

PBEM is just as much warfare on the game mechanics and just as much mental warfare. I have an feeling that Dave has build up an "profile" regarding my styles of gaming too.



ACM's (mine field tenders) just have to be in the hex...either disbanded or in a TF.

Hopefully you're supply situation in China is better than mine...that is what crushed the Chinese in my game. Turning "replacements off" for most Chinese units definitely made a difference in improving the supply situation in my game.



aztez -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/24/2009 3:43:08 PM)

cantona2: Thanx. Keep on following I think you can avoid quite a few mistakes!

Juggalo: Ah, I missed that one. That was exactly what I was looking for. Thank you!

jimh009: Yeah, so it seems. Lets hope we catch some bad guys with our mines. So far not many hits at all.

The supply situation is actually bad and did just exactly what you mentioned. Now 95% troops have replacements turned off. Hopefully we can stop this japanese juggernaught soon.

I'am building up some forts in key areas. These are slowly getting up level 4's.



Q-Ball -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/24/2009 5:12:12 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: seydlitz

I am surprised that Dave didn't split off some of his forces and land at Naga. If he had, he could have forced you to split your Luzon forces in order to hold onto Manila. Normally there is a Legaspi invasion force but I don't see that it landed there. Did he bring that around to Lingayen or did he use it farther south like maybe at Noumea?



I am catching up on reading this, but I noticed this too; I think a southern Luzon landing is critical for Japan, because it will force the Allies to either split their forces, or abandon Manila, either of which is good for Japan.

I am not sure the best strategy though, I don't like landing at Legaspi, long walk to Manila. I diverted the 2 SNLF units turn 1 to Ambon instead, but landed 1/2 of the 16th Div at Altimonan (sp?) about a week in, a little closer to Manila and further away from possible USN intervention.

Great AAR BTW, he is clearly bringing everything to close out Luzon, with the 4th, 33rd, and 21st divisions committed there.



aztez -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/24/2009 5:50:11 PM)

Q-Ball: I think Dave is trying to achieve one sort of an blitzkrieg in Luzon so that is why the infantry units have landed at Lingayen and Vigan.

It is an short distance from Clark Field and these landings were escorted by massive amounts of diffrent types of warships. He did achieve very aggressive anti-submarine effects with this style. This is only guessing though and I do have around 600av points at Manila waiting and engineers are building up fortifications constantly.

Now I'am somewhat 50/50 with this ground combat model itself. What I'am thinking is whether to actually withdraw units from Clark Field to Manila in order to gain rest OR should I use the new "reserve" option.

I know that these troops are not affected by anykind of bombings when in reserve mode and they do gain morale and distruption gets lowered. What the manual really doesn't say whether these units actually take supplies and replacements when in this new operational mode. This is somewhat "vague".

So, currently I'am withdrawing some units into Manila via combat mode and some will move into Clark Field using the same operational orders. I do have have +20 000 supplies in Clark and there +30 000 at Manila.

I would love to bring in another Philippine infantry unit into Manila via air but not really sure whether it is worth the effort.

Here is an pic from the 31st Philippine Infantry division which was heavily involved in the fighting. Notice that this unit does not have much in terms of supplies. There are 2 other smaller units in similar state.

The good news is that the "backbone" units are in fairly good shape.

[image]local://upfiles/15617/1AA4606E04094706AB4CC65BB170AF8F.jpg[/image]



Rob Brennan UK -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/24/2009 5:52:58 PM)

quote:

Lets hope we catch some bad guys with our mines. So far not many hits at all.


I'm 99.99% sure thet the new fog of war system won't show mine hits anyway. Realisitically how could you know a mine damaged a vessel you can't even see? I'd hope your mines are inflicting at least an annoyance to the japanese but there isnt any way you can tell.

With the newly defined AM (minesweeper) AMc (coastal minesweeper) and YMS (district minesweeper) I get horrible confused with the new defintions. maybe if recon a/c pick up groups of the above ships it may indicate he's performing MS ops (does intel help ?)

as ever ,, glued to the action .. and Good luck



Q-Ball -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/24/2009 5:55:27 PM)

Where is your last stand going to be on Luzon? Bataan, or Manila?

Clark is a much more viable defense point in AE due to terrain changes, that's the place to make a stand first.

After that, I would be unsure as Allied; the advantage of Manila isn't in terrain now, but just in the fact that there are alot of VP's there, and Japanese really have to take it. IN WITP though it had CD guns to prevent BB's from bombarding, those are now gone.

Bataan has Ft. Drum, which prevents the IJN from bombarding it to assist. Only problem is that the Japanese player should be content to let you rot there, unless they REALLY want to use the harbor at Manila.

PS on MINES: Glad that hits are now all FOW. In WITP, sub-laid mines were great for their intelligence value. No more "Intelligence Mines"!



aztez -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/24/2009 6:08:52 PM)

Rob: Cheers as always! Absolutely, the only confirmed mine hits have been those BB's entering Bataan and 2 enemy subs were also reported hit by mine.

I had couple of reports were it showed that enemy MSW ships cleared around 100 mines at Noumea.

Lets hope it is FOW indeed! There have not been any "new" enemy ships reported sunk either on the intel screen. At the moment it shows 21 ships "sunk". Intrestingly BB Huyaga is still there but I really have doubts about that "news".

Q-Ball: I do agree that there should be NO intel mines for either side unless you have some sort of an patrol aircraft or submarines nearby.

What I said to Rob lets hope that this has been FOW. I guess I found that out in about 1-2 years time! [:D]

The final stand will be played at Manila but I will fight it out at Clark Field into to the end. So, I will not retreat until it is absolutely necessary or when I pushed out by enemy infantry. That is why I'am trying make sense about the new reserve combat mode. It is explained in the manual but not clearly enough to make 100% decisions.

I don't think Bataan is viable option. Not even in the AE. Instead I want to build up fortifications at Manila and fight it out there. The only concern is that I have no clue about the new combat model so noway of telling where the troops will actually move if routed by the enemy.

We actually had Fort Drum vs BB TF earlier and happy to say that I got the better end of that deal. Allthough it could have been much better if I just had better luck. Damn moonlights! [:)]



seydlitz_slith -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/25/2009 12:16:13 AM)

Actually, since he didn't land at Legaspi or Naga, you can fall back to Manila, and then from Manila continue to fall back south or southeast. With nothing behind you you can fight for every remaining hex and still keep most of his forces tied up. I would start building fortifications in all the hexes south of Manila now so that you will have some level of defences when you need them.



comte -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/25/2009 10:09:09 AM)

This is a great AAR Aztez enjoying it greatly [:)]



Przemcio231 -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/25/2009 10:40:48 AM)

aztez what software do you use for those screenies:)



CowboyRonin -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/25/2009 1:09:18 PM)

In terms of retreat selection, I can tell this from my play vs. AI-it will not retreat to a hex with enemy units in it. The AI did a classic two-pronged assault; I was holding Clark fine, but Manila fell. The Manila units retreated away from Clark, so they won't be able to contribute to a "last stand." Something to keep in mind (on both sides).



dasboot1960 -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/25/2009 6:49:36 PM)

Greetings Aztez:
All should bow low to honor your willingness to keep up an AAR[&o][&o][&o].(I'm keeping a SIGINT summary spreadsheet and that's about all I can stand. I hope it might give fruit down the road). I am playing Allies PBEM versus a longtime wargame opponent going back to pre-computer days. 1 day turns, now at 12/24/41. We both are novices at the game, but well versed on the subject, so daily adjustments seemd like a good idea particularly for him early on.(Now I doubt my sanity) a few things........

I am amazed at your sortie rates for both sides, about 3/2 vs what I'm seeing and generating. Some of this may be because our carriers have been less involved. You've probably lost enough sleep over L&E[:-], but suffice it to say even going back as far as the old USN boardgame, When considering early USN CV ops... DON'T. It's painful to wait, they're beautiful, some missions can look so tempting....Maybe if one is absolutely sure where KB is... then MAYBE. My thinking is you can't afford to get caught toe-to-toe unless you have at least four, and even that is potentially awful given TBDs.

I agree with you on Malaya, too bad my two brigades up north had to get cut off and minced before I saw the light......

China.......the great unspeakable. I haven't told my opponent not to look here, but I think the small guerilla unit idea is good(I didn't even notice that divide unit button)and I'm going to have another look at my replacement settings. Basically I have replacements on for everyone who might see a japanese.

Is it possible your opponent didn't realize there was only one way up to Clark with the BBs? This seems to be a rare error on his part.

ASW - almost all of my cargo has been going unescorted, and I have paid some; almost lost QE off San Fran - I figured her the least likely to get run down by a sub..... Cargo losses hurt more than the ships - but that's classified. My IJN put a double ring of subs around PH which required adding DDs on ASW sweeps(on top of the small craft) to beat them down. We have combat reports on, and I'm fairly sure he lost at least two. I also have almost every ASW asset on USWC doing similar sweeps, (my approach is if I see it I prosecute it) and most of the air on search with a 40/40 ASW/search split. He's starting to scatter a little now, but may just need more torps. I was at first dismayed there was no 'IJN sub doctrine' but haven converted even in my pain. I am a firm believer that every early advantage should go to the IJ.(perhaps luckily, my opponent refused to play the enhanced Japanaese scen)

I tried some night air ops early with PBYs no joy - back to daylight now, I think this is an experience thing.

I thought I got it bad at PH... but I didn't have all the cruiser damage you did, even though he hung around 3-4 days. He switched to the airfield after day one, and almost had me thinking he was going for broke early with a landing in the Hawaian Is, but eventually pulled off to parts unknown. My CVs came home by the south, and he later raided Midway, so I was thinking he went to Japan; but things have been so quiet that I'm thinking he may be lurking in ambush near the Marshalls in case I get squirrelly.

Burma - I generally think you must force the IJA to fight for Rangoon, but the only real hope for a bastion is up north. Other than that I expect to make my fight along the India border and make him come through the jungle or go amphibious.

In general - I am suprised by all the posts 'realizing' the importance of establishing a chain of bases to Oz, and I must admit I used to read old WitP AARs in wonder as allies seemed to just accept the IJ could be everywhere at once. My approach to any wargame is to the reasonable extent possible - make the other bastard fight for it! Tough for you that your IJ went so early for Noumea, but that strikes me as quite a reach - if I might kibbitz, send every sub you can find, try and get some air in from the sides. It seems to me he'll have to bring in large supply TFs to make it useful, and that ties down big escorts. I don't THINK he can be everywhere at once (can he?) I think I made an early error in sending any shipping from Oz to the west... now I have a glut on that side. I am also struck by having to get supply for Colombo from Calcutta, but I have just now realized I can up the supply requirements for off map bases too, and hope this will provide safer sources and some use for all those AKs. I fully agree with readying Ceylon, and building up Addu and Diego G. Oh - I figured it impossible that Repulse or PW could survive the first day, so good on you.

Thank you again for posting this AAR.



aztez -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/25/2009 10:14:57 PM)

Thanks for the comments. Really appreciated.

I had a really long day at work today but managed to do the turn.

seydlitz: Hmmm, intresting idea. I guess that would be possible but it now more about timing. Those "retreats" would have to be organized in order to achieve that kind of defense you refering. Very intresting idea indeed.

The only problem is that I'am building up Manila and keeping forts as high as I can in these places. Due to lack of engineering units I'am just building up one other place and that the hex just 40 miles south of Manila.

Aces8: Thanks. I actually was "introduced" this game via AAR's. Bumped into the good old Wobbly vs Pzb AAR and decieded to buy the original game to see what this was about.

Przemcio231: Oh, didn't mention this. The program I'am using is SnagIt9. It is not a freeware but quite an cheap software.

CowboyRonin: Welcome. Ok, that is the "news" I wanted to hear. Maybe we can make him work hard here since he is very committed to his offensive as it seems.

dasboot: Thank you and welcome aboard. I had few earlier AAR's but really didn't have time to commit into those properly. As promised this time around it is going to be diffrent story.

Personally I don't use spreadsheets. Allthough I have no doubt they would be very useful. Maybe sometimes AE has Bodhi kind of utility and that would awesome addition to keep track on those signit details automatically.

Well, i was an novice not so longtime ago. These forums are peaceful and have very helpful people around and that is why I have sticked around. I don't post much in other forums either. As for opponents I couldn't agree more. Solid and reliable opponent is worth his weight in gold. I have utmost respect to Dave and wasn't looking any new ones either. I just hope that I have time to start another game vs FDR sometimes in the future once his mod is ready. There will be no AAR on that unless he ofcourse starts one. I never thought PBEM games would be so addictive before I started them but it really adds the mental aspects of warfare nicely into these battles. Very diffrent than the "cold" AI for sure.

I have flown a lot of intercepting "raids" and this is mostly due to his aggressive use of carriers. My sorties are mostly done by lba units since I got those carriers sunk almost immediately. So, definately no CV operations of large scale early on.

I might rendevouz the RN and US carriers in the spring of 1942 though. Easily done with off map bases now which I like very much.

Malaya is building up nicely so we shall see how swiftly he can overrun the peninsula. I think he has a lot more problems coming than he has calculated. An optimistic statement for change.

China.. oh.. well it is a bloody mess. Check the new operation report there. I did however tweak a lot of things last turn. The guerilla tactic is not working as effectively as I imagined. I think Dave got an gut feeling and is dealing with this threat already.

ASW is important for sure. I have a lot of ships and aircraft operating on these duties in WC and Pearl Harbour. I think IJN has sunk maybe 10-20 ships with their submarine fleet. He is using these guys effectively. The US subs are picking up pace and are working nicely with the "set patrol zone" feature. This is definately one of my favourite addons for AE.

Those BB's are still repairing very slowly in Pearl Harbour. I need to move 2 out of 3 into WC just don't know when to do this. The damage levels are still awful and I don't want lose these guys in their journey. I already screwd up POW with it SYS damage which was fiasco created by me. Lesson learned though. If I were you I would be very careful in terms of KB. Don't commit into anything without some sort of an knowledge about its where abouts.

BC Repulse is sunk but POW is "alive" with those SYS damage I created myself. I kind of think the way you do. I hate to give everything to the enemy as free of charge. That is why I'am kind fond of aggressive and active defense. Allthough I have healthy respect to my opponents skills so I try to calculate the risk and reward factors. I hope can't but he just popped out near Kendari with large scale invasion force, bombed canton island with his carriers, daily raids in luzon / malaya.. but NO he cannot be everywhere allthough he seems to be establishing a lot of early bases in New Guinea and Solomons island chains. I guess he sees these places as important bases. I'am doing the same with my troops too. Tahiti area seems nice place to put decent reserve garrison, fuel and supplies too. Makes the trip from WC to frontline that much shorter.

Glad to hear you guys are enjoying this journey. I think we haven't even scratched the surface yet in terms of actions/operations.



aztez -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/25/2009 10:16:06 PM)

China (january 10th and 11th)

This is an pic from China sector. Quite a lot of things happening here.

Green circle = Some of the guerilla units
Red circle = Japanese unit to routed/destroyed next turn.
Red arrows = Japanese movements
Blue arrows = Chinese movement

As you can see from here Dave is definately trying to cut off my troops in southern area. We had this ground battle happen when I tried to push him out...

Ground combat at 85,56

Allied Shock attack

Attacking force 22100 troops, 127 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 670

Defending force 22374 troops, 150 guns, 42 vehicles, Assault Value = 673

Allied adjusted assault: 569

Japanese adjusted defense: 1180

Allied assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), op mode(-), morale(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
572 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 31 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 35 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Vehicles lost 2 (0 destroyed, 2 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
2498 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 128 disabled
Non Combat: 8 destroyed, 86 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 9 disabled


Assaulting units:
50th Chinese Corps
100th Chinese/A Corps
88th Chinese/A Corps
88th Chinese/B Corps
16th Construction Regiment
28th Chinese/B Corps
28th Chinese/A Corps
100th Chinese/B Corps
23rd Group Army
10th Group Army
25th Group Army

Defending units:
39th Division
1st RGC Route Brigade
11th Ind.Mixed Brigade
23rd RGC Temp. Division

... I will moving on with combat orders towards inner china. There are a lot of troop movement for both sides here. A lot more in the northern china too but that didn't fit into this pic.

I did few things last turn. Turned OFF the replacements for 90% ground combat units. I didn't do this with HQ and artillery/AT units since I think these will be vital on the future battles. Without these the ground combats are going to very bad experince for the allies.

Still building up fortifications: I want these up to level 6 soon as possible.

Another major thing was that I changed numerous commanders in this theatre. I went through 30-40 units here and hopefully this was worth the time and PP spent.It cost me around 350 PP last turn.

[image]local://upfiles/15617/5CAA6484347842349600A7C7C1198B54.jpg[/image]



aztez -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/25/2009 10:17:40 PM)

Borneo (january 10th and 11th)


We had discussions regarding mines. It made me happy to see that we might have got some juicy targets here. (see pic)

Again I hope that this is not the new FOW system in use since those losses are nice to see.

The medal of honour for this turn was given to cdr H.Lambton. He is the captain destroyer Scout. This RN ship was sent raiding into south china sea and it ambushed lightly covered enemy transport there. This would not have happened with Witp.

I did send this ship using the same new command feature as I have used with the submarines.


[image]local://upfiles/15617/054E0B6FB0EE475B9350595C383C6254.jpg[/image]



traskott -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/25/2009 11:58:32 PM)

Amazing job of the DD Scout. A gret sucess of the RN. [:)]. Keep it on !! [8D]



Smeulders -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/26/2009 1:17:55 AM)

Any ideas as to what the convoy was doing, carrying ? It would have been great if you had caught a Base Force or something similar, though even if it were only resources your opponent won't be pleased by the little cruise of DD scout.



Zebedee -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/26/2009 2:00:42 AM)

Lovely work by the old Scout ably commanded by Hedworth Lambton. Bravo on seeing your bravery rewarded.



aztez -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/26/2009 6:34:43 PM)

traskott: Agreed! I have an feeling that she might in trouble since I noticed 6 enemy destroyers lurking 80 miles east of her.

We shall see when next turn arrives in the inbox.

Smeulders: No idea. The intel screen didn't reveal anything useful. Neither did the combat report txt file.

It might have been an base force but by looking at the TF setup it was most likely just supplies heading towards Miri.

Zebedee: Yeah. That is the last destroyer left there so an brave move indeed. The rest of destroyers have been sunk much earlier.

Add those mine hits and it was an good turn. Now, I don't even want to know whether these reports were FOW [:D]



jrlans -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/26/2009 6:45:43 PM)

I actualy wouldnt be too woried about KB in SoPAC for at least another 10 to 20 days my guess is dave is hurting for fuel in Truk, Rabaul and i doubt he has any significat fuel suppiles in Noumea. With the new out of fuel penalties no player is going to risk any significant assets running out of fuel or being traped in port till they can get fuel there I wouldnt worry. Also if i had to venture a guess as to where KB will show up next my guess would be parked off Java to prep for that invasion



aztez -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/27/2009 8:19:02 PM)

jrlans: Yeah. I think you are correct. There is little to gain in terms operating full KB in southern pacific so the focus must now shift towards ABDA command area. There are indications to that affect already in motion.

I decieded post an overview map which kind of explains a lot regarding this situation.

Orange arrow = Most likely KB heading
Blue arrow = Possible KB heading
Red arrow = Least likely KB heading

I think he wants to sail undetected so common sense would say that he is going via Ambona towards Balikpapan or maybe sail past Kendari.

At the moment he is landing troops at Kendari so the main point is to "FOW" my patrol aircraft so he could sneak into near Java undetected. He will achieve this goal within next few days. Allied signit indicates heavy units moving towards Menado too. I guess this is some sort of an supply hub before jump towards Java.

The "blue arrow" route is likely too and I think we see some carriers here too since it seems he has split them up a bit and I doubt they are going to merge with the main body, This is possible because the early blows to the US carriers.

The "red arrow" route is very unlikely unless he thinks he is going to invade NZ which I see little out of the reach and he really doesn't achieve anything by doing so.


[image]local://upfiles/15617/D14C19EE8FAE45619766D33A2358D907.jpg[/image]



aztez -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/27/2009 8:20:01 PM)

Borneo (january 12th and 13th 1942)


Ok. We were correct by assuming Miri was used to replenish his forces and IJN made slight and accurate adjustments to their tactics.

Instead of landing again at Singakawang he landed just 40 miles east of it. I think he already landed enough troops to capture the base within next turn.

Now he will just move land and seize Singakawang and once he has I think we shall see quite a few fighters and bombers flown into base immediately.

With that aircover he can bring in reinforcements and march into Kuching too.

When that these bases are captured I expect immediate landings to be at Palempang and few surrounding bases there.

This is why he doesn't need KB here at the moment so he is most likely to strike againts Soerebaja and support landings in Balikpapan area.

As jrlans visioned I think we will see these developments within 2-3 weeks time. At the latest early february 1942.

I could try to intercept these landings near Kuching. However if you look at the situation (which is somewhat messy due a lot development) to me at least this 99% certain a trap. He has enough troops to seize the base at "middle". His carrier aircraft will be outside our surface combat TF reach and with no doubt in naval strike orders. Same goes for Nells¨in Miri and malaya peninsula.

So this time around we shall not intervene taking the above conclusions into consideration.


[image]local://upfiles/15617/9DD315193FBE471B837FDC2609947294.jpg[/image]



aztez -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/27/2009 9:26:35 PM)

Aircraft replacement pools (January 14th 1942)

I divided these into two pics. The pic A shows fighters available in pools at the moment.

Allies really aren't recieving much in terms of replacement aircraft.

It seems that I have to get along with P39D Aircobra and P40E warhawks for time being. The Hellcat production doesn't become viable option until spring of 1943.

We are seriously lacking decent fighter power for long period of time. I guess I should start "saving" my fighters already but that will speed up the enemy advance.

The pic B shows all sort of bombers available in pools. Notice the even more moderate replacement rates here. There will not be too much coming here either for time being.

I didn't include the soviet replacements here due to the fact that I doubt Dave is foolish enough to assault there and provoke war.

I do hope that he is suffering for some sort of an shortage in these areas. It might not be true though since PDU was/is turned ON, To be honest I would have been much better off leaving this option OFF.


[image]local://upfiles/15617/BF1DF4DB8FC64F0DB609ABC2627BDC67.jpg[/image]



aztez -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/27/2009 9:27:32 PM)

...and the pic B.



[image]local://upfiles/15617/2854DDCB48F5433397BCE4A351842AAB.jpg[/image]



Sardaukar -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/27/2009 10:06:42 PM)

Just remember that in AE, you can downgrade air units with earlier aircraft (historical) and Withdraw those air units marked with # to pool (gaining pilots, planes and political points..up to 14 days delay). This will help a lot with P-40Es. 



jrlans -> RE: The battle of Luzon about to begin! (8/28/2009 12:20:45 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sardaukar

Just remember that in AE, you can downgrade air units with earlier aircraft (historical) and Withdraw those air units marked with # to pool (gaining pilots, planes and political points..up to 14 days delay). This will help a lot with P-40Es. 



I use my west coast air groups prety much exclusivly for pilot training ever unit on the west coast is set to some form of trainng so that when they withdraw they throw trained (50,60xp) pilots back into my reserve pool sence the pilots you pull from directly out of training are prety awfull.



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