RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (Full Version)

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FatR -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (6/21/2010 2:15:51 PM)

The Training Puzzle Solved?

It seems, that being in a base with a HQ (not necessarily an air HQ, but it seems that not all HQs have the same effect, as units in Ominato, where 5th Fleet was, were gaining skills slowly) was the factor that affected the rate of skill/EXP gain for my pilots. The difference after 1 1/3 months of training can reach 10 points in skill on average. A massive reshuffling of squadrons will be undertaken to optimize my training program.

Also, I've started transferring Army bomber pilots with EXP in 50s and GrdB in 60s to reserve. Practically all IJAAF bomber squadrons are understrength and will need to be rebuilt after Singapore finally falls and the severe drain on my LBA caused by concentration of flak there will be over (as the Dutch airforce is weak, I don't except much more losses in DEI), so that they'll be ready to pound Oahu. Better to place slightly undertrained pilots in squadrons, than completely green ones. Enough of the latter already were forced in the frontline squadrons. I also drained some Ki-51 units in China of expert pilots. They don't do much damage anyway, so they better should serve as training units that happen to also kill some Chinese in the process.


New Naval Bombardment

Allows you to set the minimal range of fire. As main guns on both Nagatos and Yamatos outrange the CD guns at Oahu, this might prove a solution for knocking out the latter, assuming we'll build up a port at Lahain and place a lot of naval support plus some AKEs there.




FatR -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (6/22/2010 12:33:55 PM)

Burma Defense Plans

As swift capture of Burma is now almost a foregone conclusion, time to think about its defense. As shown in many AARs, defending Burma is a total pain for Japanese. British-Indian forces are stronger than in RL (doubly so in this game, as 18th British Division did not reach Singapore), while easy logistics prevent jungle from being Burma's shield.

On strategic level, if we manage to vanquish China the problem of defending in Burma will be resolved as an extra bonus. But, even if my plan is to succeed, mopping up is not likely to be over before the second half of 1943, while Burma might be easily overrun in 1942. If we manage to finish Hawaian operation before about second half of July of 1942, turning west and attacking Ceilon as well, with the purpose of destroying troops there can be another strategic solution, but such success in Hawaii is far from a given.

Therefore, Japan needs a solid operational plan for defending Burma.

First of all, passively defending far-flung outposts, like Akyab, Myitkyna and, to a lesser extent, Lashio, is not possible. Akyab, in particular, is a deathtrap for the defender. But others also easily can be cut off and encirled. I plan to take at least the former two, but they will be occupied only by token forces, to, hopefully, serve as a tripwire. They won't be significantly built up, nothing beyond Level 3 forts. As a side note, I start to dig in immediately after taking a new base, wherever I have engineers without better things to do, even if fortifications won't be useful in near future. Who knows if these forts at Lingayen or Chiang Mai might come handy later?

But anyway, in Burma my MRL will be built around bases marked on the map below. These will get decent (level 3-4) airfields, if they don't have such already, and as many forts as it will be possible to build before Allies make their move. Mandalay-Magwe-Meiktila triangle will receive most air support and at least 3 Flak units per base. Japanese Divisions (ImpGuards, 55th and 33rd, for starters) also will be posted there initially, to bolster construction capabilities with their organic engineers. Later they'll be positioned a bit to the rear, say, in Toungoo and placed in strategic mode, to quickly counter any Allied incursion. There are no key bases that cannot be bypassed or encircled in Burma, and therefore the only hope for success is active, dynamic defense, using the advantage of superior mobility by rail and good roads, with eventual counterattack.


Secondly, it should be noted, that the key for successful active defense is local air superiority. We just agreed on a houserule against strategic bombing until 1944, so oil in Magwe should be safe from direct destruction from the air, but it still will be lost if British bombers are allowed to interdict my troop movements and blast whole units into oblivion. That's why I'll undertake the above-outlined measures for providing Japanese airpower with solid ground foundation. Hopefully, with well-prepared, mutually supporting bases in Irrawaddy valley IJAAF will be able to both achieve favorable rates of exchange in future battles of attrition and provide tactical air support to ground troops.

[image]local://upfiles/33131/EE1D1651058D4B93B8A038221F3517D0.jpg[/image]



bklooste -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (6/22/2010 2:05:45 PM)

Its far to early to think of defence , keep the initiative make him think of defence... then he isnt concentrating his forces. Even if it is a reticent flank you dont want to think like that :-)  

Once you can take Burma you can hold it for 6 months with 2 divisions..Though you need to be prepared to reinforce it after that ... 



FatR -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (6/22/2010 8:51:30 PM)

Going for Hawaii requires an obvious and massive commitment, and British/Commonwealth get 3 good unrestricted divisions early. On the other hand, I might not be able to release 33rd for Burma, because 18th is half-disabled already in the process of storming Singapore. And DEI needs some garrizon too.



bklooste -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (6/23/2010 12:22:56 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: FatR

The Training Puzzle Solved?

It seems, that being in a base with a HQ (not necessarily an air HQ, but it seems that not all HQs have the same effect, as units in Ominato, where 5th Fleet was, were gaining skills slowly) was the factor that affected the rate of skill/EXP gain for my pilots. The difference after 1 1/3 months of training can reach 10 points in skill on average. A massive reshuffling of squadrons will be undertaken to optimize my training program.

Also, I've started transferring Army bomber pilots with EXP in 50s and GrdB in 60s to reserve. Practically all IJAAF bomber squadrons are understrength and will need to be rebuilt after Singapore finally falls and the severe drain on my LBA caused by concentration of flak there will be over (as the Dutch airforce is weak, I don't except much more losses in DEI), so that they'll be ready to pound Oahu. Better to place slightly undertrained pilots in squadrons, than completely green ones. Enough of the latter already were forced in the frontline squadrons. I also drained some Ki-51 units in China of expert pilots. They don't do much damage anyway, so they better should serve as training units that happen to also kill some Chinese in the process.


New Naval Bombardment

Allows you to set the minimal range of fire. As main guns on both Nagatos and Yamatos outrange the CD guns at Oahu, this might prove a solution for knocking out the latter, assuming we'll build up a port at Lahain and place a lot of naval support plus some AKEs there.





re training program i know the commander of the HQ has a major effect on the training do the results agree with that ?


with Navel bombardment you may out range the CDs but your not going to hit anything at those distance...



FatR -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (6/23/2010 1:22:38 PM)

Effects of HQ commanders are harder to measure. There was a great thread somewhere on the forum, with descriptions of what effects commanders' stats have, but I cannot find it now.

Meanwhile:

Sub Victory!

On January 27 Japanese subs made up for their lack of success since 9th of the same month, sinking 2 xAKs, a small Dutch xAP and DD Tjerk Hiddes in one day. More importantly, a whole unit of P-400s became fish housing alongside with one of xAKs sunk near San Francisco. I wonder if pilots perished with the planes. Either way, the unit should be gone either permanently or for a very long time.


Ready to Pounce

KB-2 now is close enough to Suva to rush in at full speed and attack on the next turn, but I decided not to. I don't know how strong CAP is, but probably it is fairly beefy as Suva seems to be the base Geoff decided to build up. Also, Kaga is in danger of major engine trouble again. Nagumo's fleet will move between Suva and Pago Pago, in hope to intercept some shipping outside of the range of Allied air cover. I'm not sure whether to recon Suva or not. Allied airsearch might miss KB-2, if we don't, but this is fair from sure.

The South Seas cruiser force also moves south, considerably behind KB-2 (there was a temporary fuel crisis at Rabaul). If Allied CAP is strong and considerable amount of shipping will be seen hiding under it, it'll try a surface bombardment.



FatR -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (6/25/2010 12:03:25 PM)

The Sword Doesn't Strike True

On January 28-29 both parts of Kido Butai launched air and surface attacks against Allied fleet assets across the map. Unfortunately, while Japanese forces achieved surprise at both points of attack, results happened to be relatively disappointing, due to both lack of worthy targets and bad luck.


January 28

Nagumo's air search detected CLs Achilles and Leander near Taveuni Island, apparently moving from Suva in northeastern detection, thus crossing the path of KB-2. This is where the "bad luck" part came in. Cruisers were spotted near the dusk and only 24 Vals were on the carrier decks and ready to strike. Even though weather wasn't particularly bad, their attack was uncharacteristically inaccurate (probably due to moisture condensating on bomb sights in tropical condition or something) and only one bomb hit Leander, not causing appreciable damage. Both cruisers got away under the cover of night.

One day earlier, Japanese recon planes spotted a large Allied convoy in Sabang on the northermost tip of Sumatra. Admiral Yamaguchi, upon receiving these news, decided to detach his cruiser escorts, with 3 DDs, to attempt a surface intercept. On 28th the Allied convoy was spotted again, by ramped up airsearch from Rangoon, and the Japanese SCTF turned right into its path.


January 29

In the middle of the night, Japanese hunters found what proved to be an Allied evacuation convoy.

Night Time Surface Combat, near Great Nicobar at 37,65, Range 2,000 Yards
Japanese Ships
CA Tone
CA Chikuma
DD Shikinami
DD Akebono
DD Ushio

Allied Ships
xAP Khandalla, Shell hits 1
xAP Takliwa, Shell hits 1
xAP Santhia, Shell hits 5, on fire
xAK Catrine, Shell hits 8, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
xAP Changte, Shell hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
xAK Silverteak, Shell hits 10, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
xAK Silverwillow, Shell hits 6, on fire
xAP Singu, Shell hits 15, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
xAP Australia Star, Shell hits 10, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
KV Jasmine, Shell hits 14, and is sunk

Allied ground losses:
208 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 12 destroyed, 13 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 6 (2 destroyed, 4 disabled)

Poor visibility due to Thunderstorms with 92% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Thunderstorms and 92% moonlight: 2,000 yards

Unfortunately, their lack of numbers and, most of all, bad weather prevented them from catching everything. In the morning the remnants of convoy weren't found, probably because my warships were in "Retirement allowed" mode, so the commander decided to search a safe haven in the storm. Should have ordered them into an one-hex patrol zone instead.


In the day phase hundreds of planes took off to attack Colombo, Suva and Allied ships spotted nearby. A sweep at Suva, although understrenght, because only Akagi squadron decided to sweep, for some reason, took out enough defending Airacobras to avoid any damage to the raid, while at Colombo the skies were empty of Allied planes. Very lucky, cause most of my Zero escorts decided to not fly. But accuracy of port-bombing Kates proved to be abysmal. 192 planes scored only 9 bomb hits. I don't know if this because of poor recon or weather. I really expected better at Suva, where the port was already reconned.

Also, nothing more valuable than a tanker was found in either port, and none of the attacked ships were sunk.

Meanwhile, Vals struck targets of opportunity around ports. At Colombo they sank or left in sinking condition 4 KVs, 2 AMs, 1 PG and 1 xAK. At Suva AP U.S Grant and xAK Henry S Grove were hit hard enough to almost certainly sink, and the former seemed to be loaded with vehicles. Old DD Kilty was moderately damaged.

US aviation launched counterstrikes at Nagumo's fleet, but the coordination between Army and Marines was appaling. Airacobras arrived separately from Vindicators and Dauntlesses, but were mauled anyway. Of the latter, those who turned back after not meeting their escorts lived to fight another day. Brave souls who pressed on all were torn apart by the swarm of Zeros before reaching a release point. Overall, 46 Allied planes are reported to be lost today, about half of them Airacobras.

Japanese losses over the day are 9 Kates due to flak and ops. 8 Zeros were lost too (5 A2A, 3 ops), but as we had some air combar against Dutch over Soerabaja, some of them might belong to 3rd Ku. 12 pilots were KIA and MIA, probably not all, but most of them carrier pilots.



FatR -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (6/25/2010 6:32:45 PM)

Advances on the Ground and Short-Term Plans

On 29th a deliberate attack dropped the forts at Singpore to zero. We'll wait one-two days to drop disruption and draw supplies and then order a shock attack, to hopefully force a surrender. If this doesn't work, 40th Brigade, although preparing for Midway, is released from Korea and moves towards Malaya on transports.

As the Empire doesn't really have a force to invade Java proper and we don't really need any more bridgeheads, in the last week I have redirected our forces to clean up Allied holdouts in our rear. 4th Regiment went from Ambon to Tarakan and landed on 29th as well. Coastal guns inflicted significant damage to the covering cruisers and destroyers, but no ship is in direct danger. 4-battleship bombardment a turn earlier went in during the night and did little damage. This is for the better, though, as under the new beta patch naval bombardment can damage facilities!

Meanwhile, Imperial Guards Mixed brigade is unloading at Cotabato to finally crack Allied defenses at Cagayan. I should say again, that the early invasion of Mindanao in force really backfired on me and turned this island into a sponge for Japanese troops. But once we take Cagayan, we should be able to muster enough troops for an initial assault on Java, even if Singapore/Bataan still hold. If they fall by this time, and this seems possible, the forces there will be used to invade northern Sumatra.

Japanese forces are behind their operational schedule so far. This partly can be blamed on overtly strong Allied defenses past the artillery nerf. However, slow advance from Mersing was my fault. We need to start loading forces for Hawaii at the beginning of March at the latest. But looks like we'll have only three week to crush Java. If Yubari decided to run for one of the mountain bases, I will opt for a siege, instead of an assault. But so far Dutch seems to be concentrated at Soerabaja and Batavia. On the other hand, I can try to quickly defeat their seemingly evenly divided forces piecemeal.



EDIT:

P.S.: And here is that thread about leaders I mentioned above:
http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=2350193&mpage=1&key=%EF%BF%BD
Thanks to Central Blue for finding it!



bklooste -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (6/26/2010 2:36:56 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: FatR



EDIT:

P.S.: And here is that thread about leaders I mentioned above:
http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=2350193&mpage=1&key=%EF%BF%BD
Thanks to Central Blue for finding it!



Looks like HQ units in range affect disruption and recovery which can lead to faster training .. Strange that it sometimes seems to be land HQs or is that a furfy and there is a Air HQ with command radius nearby



FatR -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (6/26/2010 10:41:03 PM)

January 30: Cleanup

I-155 and KB planes hunted down the remnants of the Allied evacuation convoy south of Ceilon today. Two xAPs were sunk for sure and the third took at least one hit. I hope it'll burn out on the way to port. I also hope we destroyed some ground unit fragments, probably air support and engineers from Singapore, for good.

Looks like Yubari evacuated Colombo just recently, as the convoy we eliminated yesterday looked like a xAK attached to a bunch of short-ranged ships to refuel them on the way. Still, I decided not to pursue. Warships might be pretty far away. And Allies can hide them in off-map ports. However irritating it is to see your forces shooting sparrows with a cannon, it's time to retreat and regroup. One strategic benefit certainly obtained from the Indian Ocean voyage is the confirmation that RN decided to play Sir Robin. Therefore, we can move pretty much at will in DEI. Allied aviation on Java seems to consist only of Dutch planes. No dreaded stringbags were reported on the attacked airfields.

Similarly Nagumo retreats from Fiji, but some more attacks were launched in the process. Kongo and Haruna visited Suva during the night and discovered that the night naval bombardement is completely nerfed, even if you have 9/10 detection on the target base and floatplanes flying as spotters. They sank DD Kilty, though. In the day phase we also found that if bombers aren't explicitly ordered to rest as their secondary mission, they might decide to do something stupid, like dive-bombing a heavy-flak target, anyway. We lost three brave but stupid pilots from Akagi. One Zero pilot also perished in the air combat during the raid proper (that thankfully went in before the Akagi divebombers and cleared the skies). TK Gulfdawn, DD Crane and AP Henry T. Allen were left heavily burning, and in a port without a shipyard this well might be the end of them.


Overall, while we bagged a number of ships, both raids are a strategic disappointment. None of the major Allied surface combatants were eliminated despite the loss of about 15 elite pilots. At best, Allies are now short 2 large tankers and 2 large APs, the rest of the victims aren't worth much.

But on the other hand, save for fuel expenditures, Japan hadn't really paid much for these results. Hopefully, the Suva raid will force Yubari to be more cautious with the reinforcement of South Pacific and convince him that I'm interesred in this region. Meanwhile, Nagumo will retreat to Home Islands, to repair his ships, and Yamaguchi hopefully will be able to do the same at Singapore.


Yamashita Is Short on Ammunition!

Meanwhile, 25th Army at Singapore wasn't able to pull enough supply for the next attack. We had loads of supplies at Cam Rahn, but almost nothing flows to the west of it. Thankfully, one convoy already is on the way. A note should be taken - Malaya and Burma campaigns require a dedicated resupply effort, unless they are won really fast.


But Otherwise IJA Does Fine

Magwe and and Tarakan were taken on 30th with practically no damage. Yay! This also pushed the Japanese victory score above the Allied one. I'll post detailed reports on various theaters as February begins.



FatR -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (6/27/2010 1:16:00 PM)

First, the hot news: I-173 put a single torp into Saratoga southwest of Pearl. No fires or significant damage were observed. So, none of the many sinking sounds heard during the replay are the least bit likely to belong to her. But at least now we know where one of the Allied CV is. Course of Saratoga suggested either South Pacific or Marshalls as her destination. Kwajalein fighter complement will be temporarily boosted.


Anyway, the promised:


Strategic Situation At The End Of January

Overall, Japanese advanced steadily and with pretty much zero interupption from Allied fleets during January. However, while all of their land campaigns achieved considerable progress, a number of sieges deadlocked most of their available LCUs either for the most of the month or until now, so the only radical breakthough was achieved in Burma. This also means, that the imperial forces fall behind my ambitious schedule.

Allied airforce was mostly rendered impotent by attrition and Japanese numerical superiority by the middle of the month. Allies briefly tried to contest the skies over Burma, but withdrew after their fighters proved unable to achieve a favorable rate of exchange. In China the Allied airforce withdrew from the frontlines as well. Dutch fighters once again proved themselves hopeless and Japanese bombers now strike almost at will at targets across Java.

Japanese carrier taskforces prowled both oceans with little opposition, while Allies successfully raided Sea of Okhotsk, so ship losses on both sides remained high. However, no major combatants were lost on either side. Japanese also avoided losing any valuable transports or freighters, while Allies lost a number of them and some decent escort ships as well.


The intelligence screen as of the end of January:

[image]local://upfiles/33131/EE0FACE0DC3F439FAB5F5FC8E9221928.jpg[/image]

Note, that Allied ship losses might be undestated by as much as 20-30 hulls now. For example, none of the ships sunk at Chittagong showed up in the intel yet.




FatR -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (6/27/2010 2:11:35 PM)

Development of Operations: Philippines

As you can see below, remaining Allied forces are cornered at Bataan and Cagayan. A deliberate attack at Bataan on 31th ended with modified AV 968:821 in Japanese favor and dropped the forts to 1. I'm inclined to try shock attacking immediately, despite disruption and fatigue around 40-50 in my divisions. Allies are out of supply, just lost more AV than I did (190 combat squads vs. 142) and hopefully are disrupted too. Attrition just works too slowly. The first two assaults reduced Allied unmodified AV from 1124 to only 911 (Japanese lost around 50-55 AV, hard to tell exactly as I reinforced with two armor regiments since then).

At Cagayan we'll attack in four days, after it is totally encircled. Japanese forces should have approximately 630 AV against about 200.


[image]local://upfiles/33131/4DD14B5B72D24AE180167A111D8E486C.jpg[/image]



FatR -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (6/27/2010 2:38:27 PM)

Development of Operations: Malaya and Western DEI

The siege of Singapore drags on since January 8. Unmodified Allied AV was reduced from 1105 to 862 before the last deliberate attack that reduced the forts to 0. Unmodified Japanese AV dropped from 2261 to 1800. 312 AV were lost in the initial shock attack during crossing, since then and until the last assault Allies lost 164 AV and Japanese around 180 AV (a Recon Rgt was added to the assaulting forces since). So, the rate of attrition doesn't seem favorable. If not for the engineers, that did most of the key work of reducing fortifications, the city likely would have been impossible to take at all with the present forces (4th, 5th, 18th and 33rd Divisions, 56th Division elements save for one regiment, 3 independent artillery regiments, Southern Army and 25th HQ). Terauchi was sacked from the position of the Southern Army commander as a result of these bloody failures and replaced by Shimomura Sadamu. Hopefully superior Land skill and inspiration of the latter will help us to buff AV in the incoming shock attack and force a capitulation.

Meanwhile, most of Southern Sumatra was occupied with very light losses and almost no damage to oil in Djambi, where the Dutch attempted to make a stand. Oosthafen now is a mighty airbase, and Palembang is up to level 6 (this also eliminated any fuel spoilage there). Merak on Java was temporarily occupied by a small Japanese party that crossed the strait from Oosthafen on whatever boats they found there and established a contact with local Indonesian nationalists. A Dutch landstorm batalion soon arrived from Batavia to restore control of the city and so it did. However, Japanese aviation from Oosthafen used is as target practice thereafter - withot any flak to protect them Dutch soldiers soon found themselves in a very unenviable situation.




[image]local://upfiles/33131/3C937D407EE344FCA871C0B0AC0F0513.jpg[/image]



FatR -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (6/27/2010 9:43:27 PM)

Development of Operations: Eastern DEI and Northern OZ

The Eastern DEI theatre is pretty much closed. All that's left is to take Balikpapan, which is hopelessly isolated by the torpedo-carrying Netties at Makassar and Kendari, and pick off various small bases. Ambon and Timor are taken and Allies no longer have any bases with air support between Denpasar and Australia. I plan to land at Port Hedland and Exmouth pretty soon, but, as Kido Butai heads towards Java anyway (I don't want to hold it in place hoping that Singapore falls within a few turns), the next operation will be the landing on the eastern tip of Java anyway. It is not really a critical operation, and I wouldn't have launched it if not for continuing resistance at Singapore, which prevents my ships from moving through Malacca Strait, but getting an operational airfield on Java itself under carrier cover will help to minimize casualties. I plan to use 146th Regiment, two tank regiments and two artillery units to establish a bridgehead. They'll concentrate at Makassar and sail to the point that will be chosen based on the results of recon during the next few turns.



[image]local://upfiles/33131/746BAC452954459DA2B440AE97DA86F2.jpg[/image]



FatR -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (6/27/2010 11:30:59 PM)

Development of Operations: Burma

Burma is where IJA achieved its fastest success, perhaps due to timely replacement of commanders of 15th Army and Imperial Guards with more competent ones. Allies are on the run, but several of their units were caught and routed, including a base force at Magwe a turn ago. After abandoning Moulmein British left Rangoon withot a fight and tried to make a stand at Toungoo, but their force was both insufficient and outflanked by two tank regiments that advances from Rangoon to Prome and Magwe. 112th Regiment moved to Prome by rail after its capture and now marches to reinforce Magwe, while tank units will move to the right bank of Irrawaddy and try to cut off the path of retreat of Allied units. Hopefully, sustained air raids will force most of them into combat mode and prevent organized retreat. I had a IJAAF airbase batallion already in strat mode and ready to move to Magwe as soon as it captured, so the airfield will become operational from the next turn. Unfortunately, bad weather regularly prevents our bombers from flying, so Allied forces still stand a chance of escaping their predicament.

Japanese losses in the Burma campaign are very light so far. No units are severely disabled and once-mediocre Imperial Guards gained a nice amount of experience. Air losses are quite light as well. There were no successful ambushes on Japanese bombers over Burma.


[image]local://upfiles/33131/3DEEEA0D81D841A9A282D1E6B7E1076C.jpg[/image]



FatR -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (6/28/2010 9:27:00 AM)

Development of Operations and Plans for Stage 2: China

As you can see from the map below (by the way, edits made by Paint don't look pretty, what authors of other AARs are using to edit their maps?), in China we're preparing simultaneous offensives towards Sian and at the south. AV listed is only those units that actually will participate in the assaults. I'm leaving about 500 AV in both Nanchang and Nanyang. Both also have level 3 forts and growing. And of course, aviation will be directed to repel any assault on either. In Nanyang we already have around 80 air support and the airfield will rise to level 3 on the next turn. 4th Air Division also has been released for use in North-Central China. Chinese planes were spotted over Nanyang this turn, so Yubari will probably know what's coming, but I believe that this mass of troops should just overwhelm remaining Chinese resistance by sheer AV.

In the south, Japanese temporarily retreated from Swatow and Foochow without accepting a fight. This probably saved quite a number of troops. Now the punishment expeditions are about to start converging on scattered Chinese positions, with the strongest stack of Chinese troops being constantly pounded by aviation around Foochow. By the way, as results of air attack are determined just by quality and number of bombs, Navy's Kates routinely score better against Chinese troops than Army's one-engined planes. I think the game needs a special "ground support plane" designation, so that Wellingtons no longer will be the bestest planes for ground attack there is.

Anyway, Japanese troops are about to cut the second road connecting Southern China with the mainland. Not sure if this matters though, as the supply situation on the whole should be dire for the Chinese. Pucheng, where my attack force #2 is heading is held by about 2 Chinese corps. Japanese are moving in with two divisions and an Army HQ. This and concentrated aviation should be enough to take the objective. The attack force #3 will march on Chuhsien as soon as troops recently arrived in Shanghai move into their places. These new brigades seven of which just arrived in Shanghai and Peiping really suck - all infantry, very little guns, no vehicles - much inferior to the old independent mixed brigades. So, they'll just replace some Japanese units currently on garrizon duty. Japanese units that were defeated at Sinyang are mostly recovered by now, so they will take part in the Chuhsien offensive as well.

[image]local://upfiles/33131/3395D768D77E4A6A86504D666F992666.jpg[/image]



FatR -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (6/28/2010 9:41:43 AM)

Other theaters

In Southern Pacific we've captured everything there was to capture, except for Ocean and Nauru. These, as well as southern Gilberts, will be seized when the Combined Fleet moves to Central Pacific during the Hawaian operation.


Sub warfare

Despite occasional successes, overall results are fairly disappointing, as you can see below. I believe CL Dauntless was sunk too, as well as DD Tjerk Hiddes and another Allied TK, but Humphreys likely survived. I'll probably try moving more subs to Western Coast, where the contacts occur most often so far, in the near future. Also, major sub operations in Indian Ocean are called off now, because Colombo is almost abandoned by British. Most of DEI subs will move to Pacific through Kendari and will be used to flood the seas during the Hawaian operation.

Allied ASW seems to be distressingly competent even this early. So far I've lost one sub and got two more damaged heavily enough to abandon their patrols by depthcharging in deep water hexes.

[image]local://upfiles/33131/0AA01087CCE84986A84B743F5CC9C3D2.jpg[/image]


Heroes of the Empire

This month I wish to mention 16th Engineer Regiment, which did a splending job of reducing forts at Clark and Bataan, but at terrible cost. Its pioneer squads are all but wiped out, with almost every soldier formerly on combat strength killed or wounded and the whole regiment is reduced to about a company (4/52 remaining strength).



FatR -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (6/28/2010 9:52:53 AM)

Detailed air losses

Still very brutal, although during January we actually took down more planes in A2A that we lost. But crippling losses from flak over Singapore did not allow Japan to eliminate the gap in overall losses. Curiously, Allied ops losses are quite close Japanese this month (171 vs. 214), even though Allied aviation was far less active. Maybe flying from damaged airfields accounted for some of this.



[image]local://upfiles/33131/16DA2F780D4340B7B88D71725A6EBAEC.jpg[/image]



FatR -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (6/28/2010 10:01:25 AM)

Victory Points Chart

The major dropoffs in Allied VPs correspond to the fall of Hong Kong, "IJA Day" (fall of Manila and the victory on Central Plains in China) and the fall of Rangoon.



[image]local://upfiles/33131/E63C3EA4568F46F99F6A1931EAD863FF.jpg[/image]



FatR -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (6/28/2010 10:12:35 AM)

Japanese Industry

While we have enough HI points for steady surplus, the Empire still lives on pre-war stockpiles of resources, which keep dwindling fast. About 460 resource centers more must be captured just to make production catch up to consumption, not accounting for the needs of the industry centers we're about to take.

Naval SY expansion allowed to restart building CB Kawachi, but Ikoma remains halted. Should have expanded them more vigorously. Two major armament centers are turned off at the moment, and a small factory is converted to vehicles, but we still have a steady surplus. Vehicle production, on the other hand, proved to be insufficient. After some base units arrived at quarter strength, it was urgently expanded to 165.

[image]local://upfiles/33131/8DEED68989334F2A834A1D423818FC7E.jpg[/image]



FatR -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (6/28/2010 10:23:14 AM)

Air Production

A6M3 just entered production. As it doesn't have much advantages over A6M2, I was in doubt whether to actually produce it, or wait for A6M3b, but finally decided in favor of it. A6M3s will be delivered to naval air units in Home Islands (one of which can upgrade to fighters from floatplanes through A6M3).

Sally and Kate production was expanded slightly to keep up with the demand. Also, a small plant was repurposed from Ki-57-I to L3Y2, to keep the only unit that operates the latter up to strength (we have a slight surplus of Army transport planes anyway). Production of Betties and Emilies is turned on and off intermittently, as engine availability allows.

[image]local://upfiles/33131/5C55465B076542E6B0053D9CC3CDE488.jpg[/image]



FatR -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (7/2/2010 6:48:58 PM)

Rising Sun Over Luzon

Bataan fell on February 4th:

Ground combat at Bataan (78,77)
Japanese Shock attack
Attacking force 56260 troops, 705 guns, 544 vehicles, Assault Value = 1806
Defending force 37644 troops, 893 guns, 622 vehicles, Assault Value = 781
Japanese adjusted assault: 2055
Allied adjusted defense: 459
Japanese assault odds: 4 to 1 (fort level 1)
Japanese forces CAPTURE Bataan !!!

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
No Allied losses

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), preparation(-), fatigue(-)
experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
3530 casualties reported
Squads: 37 destroyed, 132 disabled
Non Combat: 7 destroyed, 182 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 7 disabled
Vehicles lost 48 (7 destroyed, 41 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
46138 casualties reported
Squads: 2350 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 4128 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 253 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 608 (608 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 883 (883 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 36

Assaulting units:
20th Infantry Regiment
7th Tank Regiment
16th Recon Regiment
4th Tank Regiment
21st Division
38th Division
9th Infantry Regiment
48th Division
16th Engineer Regiment
65th Brigade
Sasebo 1st SNLF
3rd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
1st Hvy.Artillery Regiment
2nd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
15th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
8th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
9th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
10th Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
14th Army
1st Medium Field Artillery Regiment
2nd Mortar Battalion
20th Ind. Mtn Gun Battalion
2nd Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion

Defending units:
1st PA Infantry Division
21st PA Infantry Division
71st PA Infantry Division
41st PA Infantry Division
51st PA Infantry Division
57th PS Infantry Regimental Combat Team
31st Infantry Regiment
31st PA Infantry Division
Manila Bay Defenses
26th PS Cavalry Regiment
4th Marine Regiment
194th Tank Battalion
3rd/12th PA Inf Battalion
45th PS Infantry Regimental Combat Team
2nd PA Constabulary Division
91st PA Infantry Division
81st PA Infantry Div /4
200th & 515th Coast AA Regiment
Far East USAAF
Bataan USN Base Force
II Philippine Corps Corps
Provisional GMC Grp
I Philippine Corps Corps
Clark Field USAAF Base Force
Cavite USN Base Force
USAFFE
201st PA Construction Battalion
1st USMC AA Battalion
1st PI Base Force
301st Construction Battalion
88th PS Field Artillery Regiment
14th PS Engineer Regiment
Manila USAAF Base Force
202nd PA Construction Battalion
803rd Engineer Aviation Battalion
301st PA Field Artillery Regiment

I don't know why Allies on Philippines consistently got the leader bonus in combat, but this didn't help them. Notably, OOB improvements for Japanese in this mod didn't influence my Luzon campaign at all. The ahead-of-schedule victory at Hong Kong and the rapid deployment of 21st Division were the most decisive factors, that enabled me to inflict defeats on Allied forces before they all concentrated in a single hex.


Three Battles in One Day

On 4th Japanese also shock attacked in Singapore and Cagayan, but without the expected success. At Cagayan our forces failed to draw in enough supply after a shock attack on a previous day. At Singapore British took much heavier losses, but AV balance remained fairly close. Well, I hope 40th Brigade, now one turn from Mersing can tip the scales.

I hoped that I'll be able to make a short detour to Canton area with 14th Army troops and use 25th Army to take Java, but no such luck. 14th will load for westen Java, preparing for Batavia.


China Troubles

A massive Allied army blocks the way to Sian. We're about to catch its rearguard, and hopefully it won't be able to slip away on the next turn. Heavy air raids will be launched to block its movement.

In the south, two divisions reached Pucheng before Chinese reinforcements. Two are reported to defend the city. A deliberate is ordered for the next turn, and about 200 aircraft, including Nells from Honshu will fly ground attack to support it.



FatR -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (7/3/2010 5:03:50 PM)

On Losses in Ground Combat

While waiting for the next turn I was writing a detailed analysis of Japanese casualties on Luzon and elsewhere, but accindentally refreshed the page and it was gone. So, I'll just summarize its conclusions as bullet points:

1)Full Divisions > Brigades of the same AV and >>> elements of regimental level of the same AV. SNLFs get knocked out easiest of all due to being so small and are of little use in major battles.

2)Smaller units recover much faster than large ones (relatively to their size), but also are likely to suffer a reduction of experience in the process, because they lose squads so easily.

3)Experience is very important in minimizing losses, even if we talk about the difference between 60 and 80.

4)Japanese armor sucks. It takes large losses very easily. These losses are replaced at rapid rate, but as a result IJA's tank regiments are likely to actually lose experience in heavy combat. I intend to stash those tank regiments that can be formed into tank divisions later somewhere safe.



crsutton -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (7/5/2010 6:01:31 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: FatR

Sub Victory!

On January 27 Japanese subs made up for their lack of success since 9th of the same month, sinking 2 xAKs, a small Dutch xAP and DD Tjerk Hiddes in one day. More importantly, a whole unit of P-400s became fish housing alongside with one of xAKs sunk near San Francisco. I wonder if pilots perished with the planes. Either way, the unit should be gone either permanently or for a very long time.

.



A few will die, but most will eventually show up back in the pools.



topeverest -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (7/5/2010 6:18:54 PM)

Thanks for the AAR and the thorough strategic view. A few questions...
1. IMO the Hawaii inner islands are a major committment beyond the reasonable capabilities of the empire unless something is given up. I have not had success doing this against a well rounded PBEM opponent. I think it already is too late to invade there with the intent of actually taking the islands.
2. reagrding Oz as a conditional venue. How do you intend to try to win the game? You wont get enough VP's in Hawaii even if you are successful. This may be a strategic gap in your plan, because even if you execute the plan, you cannot achieve automatic victory.
3. why go on the defenive at all in fall of 42 if you dont have to?
4. If you are seeking the decisive CV battle, how are you planning to draw out the enemy? Are you going to go for an objective he has to defend?



FatR -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (7/5/2010 7:26:57 PM)

1)I don't aim to win by points, although this might be a side effect if my plans work perfectly. I actually want to play into 1944-45.

2)As I said at the very beginning, the invasion of Hawaii is my primary bet for provoking an early carrier battle. Since then I measured my opponent and came to the conclusion that while drawing Allies out by going for South Pacific might be possible, Geoff is measured in his aggressiveness and capable of stratetic retreats, therefore the threat to something as important as Hawaii is necessary to force a response.

3)As about Hawaii being untakeable, so far I detect the Allied buildup at Suva and Pago Pago, not on Hawaian islands. Oahu might be a mega-fortress bustling with troops already, but we'll see. As about the forces necessary, all initial Japanese target are either taken or doomed. I'm about to storm my first airfield on Java and don't expect Singapore and Cagayan to hold much longer. Northern Sumatra, and the isolated Northern Oz can be taken with minimal ground forces. I believe I'll be able to free 7 very experienced divisions and 5-6 combat engineer regiments for Oahu, and land them en masse. The thing that bothers me most is potency of coast defenses there... the latest patch doesn't seem to mitigate the power of CD guns.

4)I intend to continue offensive actions as long as the balance of forces permits. In particular, if Oahu either falls or is deemed impossible to take (but the Pacific Fleet is trashed), I'll swing south towards Fiji, not because I need it or intend to hold on it, but to destroy the Allied forces there. Another possibility, depending on overall strategic situation, is deploying some of the Southern Army forces to China, which I really want to overrun entirely, thus securing the Western Resource Area that cannot be cut off by Allied amphibious advance and freeing a huge amount of troops, but might not be able to, because of the stronger Chinese OOB.
This is because the offense is naturally superior to defense, particularly in the island war, where the defeated defender tends to lose all of his troops or being forced to rebuild them from scratch, at lower experience. He, who has strategic initiative, can fight battles on his own terms. If my Stage 2 (Hawaii) goes well, USN won't be able to challenge IJN again until late 1943 and the US airforce will be heavily attrited. Why not to use this chance to ravage their forces, isolated on various islands, if the commitment of ground forces to an amphibious assault on Oahu is either obviously suicidal, or just ended with the fall of the island?




topeverest -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (7/5/2010 7:57:42 PM)

Good luck Admiral,

You have a detailed battleplan and have considered the opportunity costs associated with it.

Banzai!



FatR -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (7/6/2010 3:05:36 PM)

Java is invaded by the end of the first week of February!

Well, so far there is only 146th Regiment ashore at Loemadjang, but arty and engineers and air support will land on the upcoming turn (I didn't land them immediately to avoid extra losses from landing on an enemy-held beach). The main body of Tainan Ku and some bombers are already transferred to the captured level 4 airfield, which we'll put to good use.

Dutch forces seem to be moving to retake Loemadjang, but as it is an open hex, and there are over 150 Japanese 2E bombers within range, I very much doubt they will be able to. This decision might be a blessing for Japanese. Just in case, I'm sending some combat engineers from Kendari to reinforce and 4th Regiment might be directed there too, instead of Palembang, depending on what enemy strength we'll see.

Dutch aviation did not try to interfere, fearing the presence of KB. PTs and subs did, but ineffectually. However, I lost over half-dozen of planes and Shokaku-3 group leader when I tried to put a lot of planes on search, hoping they'll clear the Dutch mosquito fleet... a bad idea, as it happened, because Geoff raided his CAP on the same turn.


China Battles

You can see the situation on the map below. Unfortunately, Japanese forces were unable to catch any Chinese stragglers on the road to Sian before they joined the main Chinese force, which might well exceed 7000 AV (against Japanese 3600). I have much doubts about the possible outcome, considering forested terrain. Meanwhile, Chinese are trying to threaten our flanks. Too bad for them, that I left 116th division at Nanyang. Their force is very much doomed unless it turns back.

In the south, the fist Japanese attack dropped the forts at Pucheng to 1 and revealed that the enemy is short on supply. Unfortunately, the reemergense of AVG (with loss of about 15 Japanese bombers because my fighters once again decided not to show up), means that the next assaults won't have equally good air support. Weather is bad too. IJAAF will concentrate on shutting down Changsha and Wenchow for the moment, because this sort of losses is simply unacceptable and I operate too many bomber units from too many airfields to cover them all.




[image]local://upfiles/33131/27FD047C794F472FAC05AFFA6FEFC5FC.jpg[/image]



FatR -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (7/7/2010 5:44:47 PM)

February 8: The Day of Choice

Two things happened on February 8th. First of all, my main Chinese army suffered a tremendous defeat in the forest hex directly southeast of Sian, losing about 19k to 4 in a failed shock attack at 12:1 odds (despite having less than 2:1 inferiority in unmodified AV). Distressingly, once again the enemy got a positive modifier for leaders. I don't know how Yubari manages this. Disruption is extremely heavy and I'm even afraid that a Chinese counterattack might cause a rout. If not, this is still a very bad development.

It doesn't mean that I'm going to abandon the Sian offensive. After we recover and clean up our flanks, we'll try a push through Taiyuan-Yenan, where the terrain is less detrimental to the attacker, once we break from Taiyuan, which cannot be reinforced by Chinese in time, as we have a rail connection to there. Japanese will be able to utilize their aviation better in that terrain as well.

On a positive note, 3 KNIL regiments marched to Loemadjang and were hit my massed naval and air bombardments, losing over 1.5k troops. Two of them were shown reduced to 0 AV during their attepmt to bombard my troops (in which another 200+ Dutch were blown away by counterfire). This is an excellent development, as these regiments represent a very large part of Dutch AV on Java. This opens the possibility of conquering Java by landing just 1-2 extra divisions, besides troops already moving from Eastern DEI. This also means, that most of 14th Army can proceed to Hawaii and start taking the outlying islands as soon as it marches back to Manila. As about KB ships, only Chitose needs a visit to a shipyard, after being rammed by Taio, the rest can be repaired locally at Truk and Kendari.

I'm strongly inclined to start preparing for the initial stages of the Hawaian Operation (let's call it Operation HI thereafter), namely the invasion of Midway, followed by a move to inner islands, immediately. If anyone has any comments on this, I'd like to hear them.



FatR -> RE: Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. yubari (A) - no yubari, please. (7/8/2010 10:47:00 AM)

Hawks Versus Falcons

During the last two days (February 8-9) fierce air battles rage in the skies over Changsha, with 54th Sentai, 54th Sentai Det A, 10th and 87 I.F. Chutais challenging 2nd and 3rd AVG squadrons. A2A losses are reported as 9 Ki-43-Ic, 18 Ki-51 and 2 Ki-32 on Japanese side versus 18 P-40E (plus one destroyed on the ground). Ops losses make picture somewhat worse for Japanese, but as we fly the same planes against other targets, it's hard to say if all of their ops losses were in the battle over Changsha. As Ki-51 groups were recently stripped of elite pilots, I consider this turn of events my victory. Allies cannot sustain this sort of aircraft attrition until late 1942, even if their pilots mostly survive. Although an expansion of Ki-51 production to patch holes in 1E bombers sentais might be in order...

Anyway, what's interesting about these air losses is the rate of fighter exchange that is quite unfavorable for Allies. Most of my Hayabusas sweep at 15k (due to the out altitude houserule), while the rest escort, and AVG patrols at 20k. Results, though, speak for themselves. They are better that the results I got with Oscars strato-sweeping AVG against AI. My units aren't the greatest as far as pilots are concerned, and I even doubt we have an edge of all, considering, that AVG must be chock-full of aces by now. We don't have much of numerical edge as well, because 54th Sentai just recently upgraded to Ki-43 and has less combat-ready aircraft than a Chutai (although this means that it can rotate even mildly fatigued pilots out of combat).

While this clearly proves that high-altitude sweeps are overrated, I'm not sure about the exact reason for our success. Ki-43-Ic has the greatest MVR advantage over P-40E at 15k and below, so that might have influenced the outcome. It is possible, that AVG got highly fatigued, due to changing airfields at least three times in a row before that and having only one turn to rest. It is also possible, that flying from a bombed and damaged airfield increases fatigue and reduces morale. It almost surely influences pilot losses. By the way, did you know that pilots can be killed on ground? They can. I lost several when American cruisers bombarded Shikuka in this game, there can be no other cause for these losses, because my fighters there never engaged the enemy in the air.

In other news, I massively expanded my aircraft research program on the last turn. It seems, that having very small research factories (smaller than 8-16) makes no sense, because large ones repair faster. Aside from the initial investment, research is free, so this shouldn't harm my economy.



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