RE: One Weird Battle (Full Version)

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Bullwinkle58 -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/7/2011 5:18:16 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

As I've said before, I LIKE the element of "danger" and excitement that auto victory adds to the game. I would NOT play if auto victory was off the table (unless there was an absolutely air tight way of achieving it). To this point, an airtight method hasn't been discovered, though many of us wonder if Oz or India are possibilities. Alot of games will have to be played before we'll know. And a more aggressive Allied defense will have to be employed to try to prevent it.


Incorporating this and Chickenboy's comment I have to agree. Auto-vic is needed IMO. And there is no air-tight way to get or to stop it.

However, what might make some Allied players uncomfortable is that the "going for it" in the early game is in the hands of the Japanese player. If he tries it in a credible way the Allied player has no choice but to meet him, and stop him, possibly at great loss in men, materiel, and time. Many Allied players are uncomfortable not being in control, or not having the unilateral option to choose to Sir Robin.

But, as Nemo points out, the choice for either player to play high risk/high reward is always there, in any era. If I can generalize, AE as a community seems to have a higher proportion than the general population of engineers, IT professionals, lawyers, medical types, retired military technologists/intel/cryptos, and all-around "hard" number-crunching type folks. Perhaps that's to be expected given the demands the game presents, and I shouldn't feel abandoned by my fellow liberal artists. But that preponderance of quant jocks also, maybe, leads to "grinding" the game rather than a more poker-type approach.

In the land of the math-blinded, the one-eyed gambler is king? A grinder who meets a hail-mary auto-viccer is always going to be exciting.

N.B. I do not assign any names to either category, except myself. I ain't no grinder. [:)][8D][sm=Cool-049.gif][sm=sign0031.gif][sm=sign0006.gif]




Canoerebel -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/7/2011 5:33:42 PM)

Well stated, Bullwinkle.

But what the heck does "N.B." stand for?

I'm definately a grinder. John III is more a hail-mary auto viccer. No wonder my PBEM WitP match against him was a blast!




witpqs -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/7/2011 6:06:17 PM)

N.B. = "Nota Bene"

"Note Well"




Bullwinkle58 -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/7/2011 6:44:46 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

N.B. = "Nota Bene"

"Note Well"


Whutta they teachin' in law schools these days? Sheesh!!! [:)]




Bullwinkle58 -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/7/2011 6:47:26 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Well stated, Bullwinkle.

But what the heck does "N.B." stand for?

I'm definately a grinder. John III is more a hail-mary auto viccer. No wonder my PBEM WitP match against him was a blast!


Maybe those categories should be added to the Official AE PBEM Opponent Application Form, along with "Do you now or will you ever own, play, or operate 'War in the East?' If yes, please step slowly away from this form."




Canoerebel -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/7/2011 6:56:45 PM)

The Latin terms in law school through me for a loop.

It took me a long time to figure out nunc pro tunc.

When I was a brand new lawyer, I went to the office of the clerk of the superior court and asked for a "fee fah." Hey, it was spelled "Fi Fa" (short for writ of fieri fascias). How was I to know it was pronounced "fie fay"?





anarchyintheuk -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/7/2011 7:09:19 PM)

In Texas 'voir dire' (pronounced 'vwah dear') is purposefully mispronounced as 'vor dire'. Never understood the reason; hopefully it's misprounced in GA as well.




Canoerebel -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/7/2011 7:12:47 PM)

I knew the correct way to say it, I knew the "legal way in the south" to say it, and eventually I wasn't sure which I would be better off using. So I ended up saying it both ways and sometimes getting confused and saying it entirely differenty (and incorrectly).

Man, I hated being a lawyer!




Bullwinkle58 -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/7/2011 7:28:17 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk

In Texas 'voir dire' (pronounced 'vwah dear') is purposefully mispronounced as 'vor dire'. Never understood the reason; hopefully it's misprounced in GA as well.


It's because they hate the French. [:)]

(I'll bet a lot of lawyers think it's Latin.)




Bullwinkle58 -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/7/2011 7:32:35 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The Latin terms in law school through me for a loop.

It took me a long time to figure out nunc pro tunc.

When I was a brand new lawyer, I went to the office of the clerk of the superior court and asked for a "fee fah." Hey, it was spelled "Fi Fa" (short for writ of fieri fascias). How was I to know it was pronounced "fie fay"?




At least you didn't have to say " 'Quod fieri facias de bonis et catallis,' please, ma'am." [:)]




Capt. Harlock -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/7/2011 8:36:27 PM)

quote:


India: Armored units totalling 750 AV will arrive at Bombay from the NE tomorrow. 27th USA Div. is about three days away. The Allies have 2700 AV at Bombay. Japan has four divisions (about 1800 AV) with 1st Division (roughed up, but still a force of probably at least 300 to 350 AV) to arrive any day now. The question for me will be whether to chance an attack. The enemy will benefit from 4x urban bonus, but they may have some supply problems.


My two cents would be to try a bombardment attack. You should get a little more intel about what the IJA has there, without risking major losses in urban hex combat.




Canoerebel -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/7/2011 8:56:06 PM)

I've been bombarding there every day for three months. I know exactly what's there, but I don't know their supply.

Oddly enough, I only have one unit bombard. I quickly discovered that one unit (it happens to be an Aussie brigade) is far, far more effective that having my whole stack of 2700 AV bombard. Why? I don't know. Just one of AE's oddities.

Anyhow, I'm still uncertain about launching a deliberate attack.




Bullwinkle58 -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/7/2011 9:53:49 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I've been bombarding there every day for three months. I know exactly what's there, but I don't know their supply.

Oddly enough, I only have one unit bombard. I quickly discovered that one unit (it happens to be an Aussie brigade) is far, far more effective that having my whole stack of 2700 AV bombard. Why? I don't know. Just one of AE's oddities.

Anyhow, I'm still uncertain about launching a deliberate attack.


I've seen others post that the best way is to send minor bombing missions over, and when the flak stops, they're dry.




Canoerebel -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/8/2011 3:31:24 PM)

10/14/42

Bullwinkle: That brings up another problem. My bombers refuse to fly missions against the enemy troops besieging Bombay. Over the past three months I've ordered many strikes from a variety of bases and not a single mission flew. Instead of getting irate about it, I just targeted my bombers against other stacks, which actually had a higher priority.

India on the Ground: The Valiant TF bombarded 1st Division a hex north of Bombay, doing light damage but probably slowing the unit down. My armor arrived at Bombay, boosting my AV to 3400. The Japanese have 1800, with a somewhat weakened 1st Div. set to arrive any day now. I actually issued the orders for an attack tomorrow, but ended up canceling. With the enemy also benefiting from the heavy urban hex multiplier, I think I would fail miserably. Instead, I'll pursue and punish once the Japanese begin retreating. An armored unit is going to cut across country and try to sever the IJA route out of Bombay, but the going will be slow and this probably won't work.

India in the Air: Most of my airforce was grounded by weather, but the heavies flew against the stack retreating SE from Jalagon, doing light damage. Tomorrow all bombers at Bombay will target the airfield at Poona.

Noumea Invasion: The two units at Melbourne begin loading on transports tonight, as do supply ships at that base. The Wellington ships begin loading tomorrow. D-Day probably 10-12 days away. Noumea and adjacent La Foa still very lightly held - a mystery to me. Picket ships in place and all is quiet.

Pacific: Quiet.

Points: 33k Japan; 10 k Allies (so the auto victory gap has widened from 4k to 7k over the past few months).




Cribtop -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/8/2011 3:48:23 PM)

I too am a recovering lawyer, but oddly more of a top down thinker than a grinder.




vettim89 -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/8/2011 6:09:18 PM)

Dan,

This may sound weird but you now have a choice to make as far as how Brad egresses from his India adventure. You can make him fight his way out by aggressive pursuit, flanking maneuvers, and paradrops or you can allow him to withdraw on his own with minimal interference. The difference between the two is how long do you want the bulk of you power concentrated in India. If you choose the former, it will take all you have and more. If you choose the latter, you will eventually be able to reduce the amount of force present though not right away.

Regardless of which route you choose, you need to decide soon. Otherwise you may catch the ire of certain posters who will point out your lack of a firm strategic gaol with a well defined plan to achieve it. Not that we know anybody like that around here[sm=00000289.gif]




Canoerebel -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/8/2011 6:28:08 PM)

Good point, Vettim.  But I'm proud to say that my master plan in India has been the same since the Japanese invasion, and dovetails with the rest of the Allies plans over the map.  There is plenty of room to second-guess my plans, but at least they are plans.

My plan in India has been to hit Japan during the retreat as hard and as often as possible.  Two reasons for this:  (1) There isn't a better place to employ massed Allied air power - lots of airfields, lots of base forces, and I've brought most of the USAAF here; and (2) I won't get another crack at hammering IJA divisions for a long time.

I've already made three Allied para-drops and my infantry and armor are in place to attack.  There are three IJA stacks and I've decided to focus on the one at Bombay.  It is possible this will also offer me a crack at another stack, which is off the good roads and might be cut off if things go really, really well.

I do plan to draw down the Allied garrison somewhat in coming months.  I want to use 27th USA Division in the Sumatra campaing and I want to use some Indian and UK troops to assault Diego Garcia and Addu Atoll in the medium term, and then perhaps the Nicobars and vicinity at the same time the Allies hit Sumatra.

That's the master plan on the western half of the map.  The eastern half I've detailed previously.




Nemo121 -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/9/2011 12:02:32 AM)

Vettim, LOL!!!!

Canoerebel,
Just one thing... It might be time to have a think about breaking the entire front. Rather than just pursuing his forces and nipping at their heels tactically could you do a much deeper amphibious invasion BEHIND the line they are streaming south to create? That would turn a retreat into a rout.

E.g A Georgetown landing would likely be very lightly opposed and destabilise the entire Japanese defensive position he is planning for 1943/44. It also wouldn't be all that much more hazardous than a landing in Burma or South-Eastern India and if properly conducted at this stage in the war you could move up to Bangkok, cut off his egress from Burma and force him to air-evac his force from there into Vietnam, this should gain you victory 18 months to 2 years earlier than would otherwise be the case - if you press him hard enough.

It is somewhat risky but in the long term hitting a soft spot far behind the lines speeds things up so much overall losses are much reduced. It is the old Montgomery/British Army of 1944 trade-off between casualty rates and total casualties till cessation of hostilities. Monty had to accept a low casualty rate even if that meant a longer war and greater casualties overall. You could choose a higher short-term rate and a quicker war.




Canoerebel -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/9/2011 12:36:08 AM)

Nemo, I'm keeping that possibility in mind, though I would prefer to hit eastern Sumatra.  If I did that successfully, it would neutralize Palembang and Singapore and make it difficult for Brad to extra his India troops.

This has been my plan since the start of the war.  Ideally, I would like to employ it in mid or late '43 when Allied carriers would enable me to maintain my LOC to supply my troops.  I have also considered moving early for the reasons stated above, but I'm almost positive that I couldn't keep my supply lines open, so that my army would be vanquished.

Nevertheless, I'm ready to move if an opportunity arises.  If, for instance, Brad were to commit the KB in CenPac or SoPac, I could proceed.  Right now I have four divisions plus two equivalents prepped and present in Oz.  A seventh is prepping and is about to embark at San Diego for Melbourne.

Such a move would be guaranteed to draw the full wrath and attention of the Japanese army until the invaders were vanquished, so I also need to be prepared to move in other theaters (the Pacific).  I do have troops prepping for Tarawa and even, on the outside chance of an opportunity, for Iwo Jima, which is lightly garrisoned per repeated SigInt.

Right now such a move would be very precarious, so I will pull the trigger only if I know the KB is committed far away.  But by spring or summer of '43, I should be in a position to move unilaterally (though I'll try to draw the KB away through a massive feint towards the Kuriles).

I do realize that Brad will beef up Sumatra as he withdraws troops from India.  So I have that "clock is ticking/best opportunity may disappear" feeling, but I still think it's better to wait.  Even if Brad commits troops to Sumatra, in the short term the Allies should be able to overwhelm them by the commitment of eight to ten fully prepped divisions.




erstad -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/9/2011 5:41:07 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:


The bottom line is, I think, the Japanese player has to go for auto-vic all the way or don't go. Getting close and being far out of position on 1/1/43 is the worst outcome.

I believe we are in violent agreement. If the Japanese take Karachi they have enough for auto-victory. There is nothing the allied player can do to regain Karachi before the beginning of 1943. Heck with enough LBA at Karachi, the KB can go in for a refit and wait for the fruits of Victory to fall into their mouths.


Canoe, could you post a current victory points screen? I would be surprised if taking Karachi is sufficient for AV, even with the ground losses that would occur.




Bullwinkle58 -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/9/2011 6:35:50 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Nemo, I'm keeping that possibility in mind, though I would prefer to hit eastern Sumatra.  If I did that successfully, it would neutralize Palembang and Singapore and make it difficult for Brad to extra his India troops.



I won't try to begin a support/discuss on Nemo's idea if you're not interested, but I've been thinking about it, looking at the map, and I think it's a VERY interesting proposal given the force dispersions you're currently facing. Instead of dinking around the edges at places like Wake and Norfolk I, it drives a stake into his heart, and losing Bangkok would be salt in the wound, a big pressure bandage right across his aorta. Georgetown has a potentially large airfiled and port, and you can control the western approaches at sea at fairly low-cost with the forces you have/have saved, let alone what you're about to get.

I know that Sumatra has been your El Dorado since the start of the game, and that's fine, you might want to experiment with it. But if your goal is to win the war and game fast, I think you should really break Nemo's suggestion down in terms of economic impact, strictures on resource flows overland, the effect on the entire Malaysian penninsula, the funneling of necessary oil and fuel through a new submarine-vulnerable tunnel out of southern Sumatra once Singapore is stoppered, not to mention the overall strategic panic you would inject into your opponent.

I look at the map right now as a very long, tall (Japanese) stemmed rose. An eleven division head, huge and beautiful, and a thin, stick-like stem reaching due south all the way to Batavia in an unbroken line. Georgetown lets you break the stem in half, with the northern stub trying to desperately support that huge blossom up at Bombay as it begins to wither.

Tounge firmly in cheek, you might call Nemo's proposal Step 1 in a Grinder Recovery 12-Step program. You ought to seriously consider it. He's right that you could cut years off of the war.




Cribtop -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/9/2011 7:04:08 PM)

The Georgetown proposal is indeed interesting. From an operational perspective the obvious quandary is when will CR have the CV strength to ensure his SLoC in the face of a "kitchen sink" response from Japan? Avoiding a Yubari/Fatr Ocean of Blood style defeat must always be job one. Of course, waiting too long to ensure total sea supremacy will mean the Japanese blossom evacs from India, invalidating the whole point. Timing would be key.




Canoerebel -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/9/2011 7:35:00 PM)

Bullwinkle, I'd welcome strategic thoughts. I promise to read and consider, but I'll also be a "tough sell."

The Malaya Peninsula has some advantages in that Georgetown is almost certainly lightly guarded. An invasion there would also sever India from the rest of Japan in a major way.

There are strategic disadvantages - Georgetown is within the Japanese perimeter. I'd be coming inside big bases like Sabang and Port Blair. The likelihood of achieving surprise is pretty small. And, as Cribtop notes, securing the LOC would be a tough proposition indeed.

Sumatra may not be quite as attractive a target, and is likely to be more heavily guarded, but it is probably easier to achieve surprise. It will also be more feasible to secure the LOC assuming the invasion takes place later in '43 when I have more carriers.

There's also the fact that I've had lots of SigInt about Sumatra, little or none about Malaya, and that my troops are prepped for Sumatran targets (mainly Padang, Benkoelen, Lahat, and Oosthaven). Changing plans has lots of ripple effects that can't be taken lightly.

An invasion can't take place any sooner than three months, by my estimate. I'll be continually reevaluating things to see if Sumatra still seems like a viable target. If not, I'll be looking for other opportunities and Malaya is one candidate.

The operation vs. Wake is much more than nibbling at the edges. It is actually part of an elaborate maskirovka (I get that term from reading Tom Clancy novels, but I've seen others use it in the forums). I want to use Wake and the big build up in the Aleutians to create the appearance of an Allied concentration in CenPac/NoPac. Then, in early or mid '43, I'll mount a massive feint on the Kuriles. If successful in drawing the attention of the KB, that would help the Allies in striking Sumatra (or some other southern target).

There's plenty of more thought that goes into a plan this elaborate, and many factors that would be tedious to delve into, but that's why I say I'll be a "hard sell" to change.




Bullwinkle58 -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/9/2011 7:48:47 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

The Georgetown proposal is indeed interesting. From an operational perspective the obvious quandary is when will CR have the CV strength to ensure his SLoC in the face of a "kitchen sink" response from Japan? Avoiding a Yubari/Fatr Ocean of Blood style defeat must always be job one. Of course, waiting too long to ensure total sea supremacy will mean the Japanese blossom evacs from India, invalidating the whole point. Timing would be key.



I think the selection of Georgetown is not an accident on Nemo's part.

Allied invasion and second-wave forces would need to be perhaps even micro-divided into very small chunks both to facilitate rapid-unload-and-move-out at Georgetown, and to leverage the game's target-assignment code for Japanese LBA and CV attacks. Low mix xAKLs in force to build a very quick, large supply dump, and a massive investment of enginneers from D-Day +1 to get a large, sustainable airbase up and running. CR would lose merchants by the score. But he has them. With the third-generation fighters, DBs, and attack bombers he will be getting in the next 90 days he could hold Georgetown from amphibious response, and an overland response would be slow and resource-starved given the "blossom" up north.

A question on this op which would need to be addressed IMO is the status/future of Ceylon. Would it need to be re-taken first? Few can best me in my love for Colombo's yards, dumps, and airfield, but I tend to think that Ceylon, in Nemo's proposal, could be made a strategic liability for Brad's Japanese posiiton due to Georgetown's north-south resupply straddle for Singapore. Ceylon in this case might be where Brad would have to retreat some or most of the Indian expeditionary force, and then what to do with those divisions? If CR can wrest sea control in that part of the map away, Brad has little choice but to make them walk through the un-railed and un-roaded jungles of Burma to get them back to battery in Indo-China and somewhat useable, the task of the better part of 1943 at minimum. By then CR could have new US Army divisions spreading south toward Saigon from Bangkok, or even farther east along the coast, further interdicting the resource and oil/fuel convoys which can't make useful landfall at Singapore any longer due to the penninsula stopper at Georgetown/Bangkok.




Canoerebel -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/9/2011 8:55:40 PM)

10/15/42

Bombay: IJA 1st Division arrived at Bombay in a weakened state (bombardment showed AV of about 150). Now we'll see if Brad pulls his troops out of Bombay towards Poona. The Allies will follow as best they can.

Noumea: Kiwi troops begin loading at Wellington; Aussie transports should depart Melbourne tomorrow or the following day. No sign of enemy activity.

Points: I'll post the points in a separate thread in just a few minutes per a request. I should note that Karachi isn't a key to IJ auto victory due to points, but rather to the fact that it's the key port through which Allied reinforcements and supplies pour. Between June and September, I think the Allies sent 2,000 AV + from Aden to Karachi, plus more than 700k supply. Had Brad taken Karachi and prevented that from occuring, he likely couldn't bagged Bombay and it's troops and most of the remaining Allied troops in India. I have no doubt Japan would have achieved auto victory had Karachi fallen sometime between April and July.




Canoerebel -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/9/2011 8:59:10 PM)

Tally as of 10/15/42: IJA 33k; Allies 10k. So auto victory spread is 7k - up from 4k several months ago.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/463C2D9FEB0C45C0AD17D2E84CEAB3AA.jpg[/image]




crsutton -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/10/2011 4:18:42 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I've been bombarding there every day for three months. I know exactly what's there, but I don't know their supply.

Oddly enough, I only have one unit bombard. I quickly discovered that one unit (it happens to be an Aussie brigade) is far, far more effective that having my whole stack of 2700 AV bombard. Why? I don't know. Just one of AE's oddities.

Anyhow, I'm still uncertain about launching a deliberate attack.


I've seen others post that the best way is to send minor bombing missions over, and when the flak stops, they're dry.



I don't think that works like it did in WITP. I was down to zero supply for some time in Singapore, yet my flak was still working vs the Japanese bombers. Of course it started to thin as disrupted units stayed disrupted, but my flak worked until the final battle.





crsutton -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/10/2011 4:24:03 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

Vettim, LOL!!!!

Canoerebel,
Just one thing... It might be time to have a think about breaking the entire front. Rather than just pursuing his forces and nipping at their heels tactically could you do a much deeper amphibious invasion BEHIND the line they are streaming south to create? That would turn a retreat into a rout.

E.g A Georgetown landing would likely be very lightly opposed and destabilise the entire Japanese defensive position he is planning for 1943/44. It also wouldn't be all that much more hazardous than a landing in Burma or South-Eastern India and if properly conducted at this stage in the war you could move up to Bangkok, cut off his egress from Burma and force him to air-evac his force from there into Vietnam, this should gain you victory 18 months to 2 years earlier than would otherwise be the case - if you press him hard enough.

It is somewhat risky but in the long term hitting a soft spot far behind the lines speeds things up so much overall losses are much reduced. It is the old Montgomery/British Army of 1944 trade-off between casualty rates and total casualties till cessation of hostilities. Monty had to accept a low casualty rate even if that meant a longer war and greater casualties overall. You could choose a higher short-term rate and a quicker war.


Problem for me was lack of invasion type transport in the East until 1943, and then not much. Allies just don't have much for offensives both in the East and Pacific until later in 43. Do you guys pull invasions using xAP and xAKs? I am reluctant to try due to the very slow and limited unloading.






Chickenboy -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/10/2011 4:47:59 AM)

As far as Georgetown is concerned, it's one (of many) daring gambits for the Allied player.  All are foolhardy, IMO, unless the precise position of KB is continuously known.  Some players do keep KB (or mKB) at Singapore for quite a bit of the time.  Wouldn't that just ruin your day?...




Bullwinkle58 -> RE: One Weird Battle (1/10/2011 1:06:24 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton


I don't think that works like it did in WITP. I was down to zero supply for some time in Singapore, yet my flak was still working vs the Japanese bombers. Of course it started to thin as disrupted units stayed disrupted, but my flak worked until the final battle.




Perhaps the units were working through their last organic supply while base supply was at zero?




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