How Do you Calculate the Odds of Success in Combat? (Full Version)

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NavalNewZ -> How Do you Calculate the Odds of Success in Combat? (9/6/2010 4:32:07 AM)

...?



Josh -> RE: How Do you Calculate the Odds of Success in Combat? (9/6/2010 9:45:24 AM)

Depends what you call success; total destruction, forced the opposing unit to retreat or just inflicting casualties.
There's .. IMO, no precise way of calculating the odds of success, I do it by a hunch, what do I think the odds are. First I check the opposing units, how well are they dug in, how many troops are there, how "green" is their strenth bar? Personally I tend to tread lightly, if there's any chance the opposing unit may inflict heavy casualties on *my* side, I just take my time--->encircle if possible and take a few turns to bleed them dry, bomb them meanwhile.
If the opposing unit is say, ripe for the plucking, undermanned or with a yellow/red health bar, then I attack with my divisional forces combined (if the subunits of the same division are next to the attacked hex they give me that divisional bonus) or even with a concentric attack bonus. That should give me better odds, though that doesn't always result in the destruction of the opposing unit, sometimes just a retreat, or you inflicted heavy casualties.
And ofcourse, panzer units rip through inf divisions.

Maybe Barthheart has something to say about this?



Pete AU -> RE: How Do you Calculate the Odds of Success in Combat? (9/6/2010 10:44:43 AM)

I tend to agree - it is a kind of gut feel thing. In this respect the game will fall down for those players that enjoy the 'CRT' and odds aspect of wargaming. Number crunching and mulling over the presented risk are simply not aspects of this game. Indeed, there are better games for those that enjoy that aspect of gaming. This, I find, is a 'beer and pretzels' gaming at its best. Very easy to get to grips with and quite forgiving if you play the German side. And sometimes thats what you want. Now, would the game be as much fun if you were simulating less one sided battles or larger conflcts - would it even work? It will be interesting to find out.




Ctaardvark -> RE: How Do you Calculate the Odds of Success in Combat? (9/30/2010 7:15:49 PM)

There must be some way the combat outcome is calculated though. You must base your gut instinct on some actual hard facts such as number of troops, quality etc. If you have no idea what contributes to a victory then surely its just a game of pot luck? True, I don't want to know that I've got a 63.5% chance of inflicting 25 casualties and a moral check, I just want to know that I have the upper hand unless some un-recon'd factor pops up.

Also Pete AU, if the game only works for with unbalanced sides surely it takes the competition out of pbem? I may well be barking not only up the wrong tree but in the wrong forest here, as I have yet to get the game. This is why games need demos!!!



borsook79 -> RE: How Do you Calculate the Odds of Success in Combat? (9/30/2010 11:12:36 PM)

Actually I really like this about the game, you have info about forces, terrain, entrenchment etc. This SHOULD be enough. No real commander got more info before the battle.



bcgames -> RE: How Do you Calculate the Odds of Success in Combat? (10/1/2010 4:40:27 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Ctaardvark

There must be some way the combat outcome is calculated though. You must base your gut instinct on some actual hard facts such as number of troops, quality etc. If you have no idea what contributes to a victory then surely its just a game of pot luck? ...

This game can be pot luck; but if you pay attention to the information provided, and learn from the experiences you gain during game play, you will quickly gain an appreciation for command at this level and "know" the right thing to do.



Ctaardvark -> RE: How Do you Calculate the Odds of Success in Combat? (10/1/2010 8:00:15 PM)

Thats what I mean Borsook. You ARE basing your combat on facts - as you say, troops, terrain, entrenchment. As long as you have the advantage in most areas you stand a good chance of winning.

Anyway, I'll soon find out. About to purchase game.



NavalNewZ -> RE: How Do you Calculate the Odds of Success in Combat? (11/13/2010 8:17:07 AM)

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AZKGungHo -> RE: How Do you Calculate the Odds of Success in Combat? (11/13/2010 6:05:13 PM)

Have you seen this?  

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=2561038

I believe it's about as close as you can get to figuring odds.  Zooming in and watching the numbers as you use your arty and air gives you a good idea of what's about to happen to your ground attack.  It's not exact nor should it be - but it's closer than any real field commander ever had!



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