1942 war start what if ideas (Full Version)

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guctony -> 1942 war start what if ideas (12/23/2010 1:31:07 PM)

I would like ask you would it be feasible for Japan to start a war in 1942 preferably december 1942.

Historical reasoning is that Japan high command has common sense. When they get the china ultimatom they decide to play along with US pretending they are ****cat. They declare a chease fire with china and start negotions. They try to buy some time by imposing a phased reatreat. They reatreat to china coast line preserving and freeing alot of force. At the same time continue their offenive plans and mobilization.

What would be result of this move.Would allied buy it. So their pacific mobilization kept to minimum. Would Japan still aquire Oil from US and DEI. Would it force US to stay out of war and lower its mobilization and its ship and Air production.

It seems that as an allied Japan did the most harm to Germany by declaring war to US which in effect Put US in to war much quicker than expected.

It seems that if 1942 planes design were in use in 1942 with a fresh start position Japans qualitative advantage would be much higher

One year later what would be the increase in manpower and warships in pacific for allies. And would still japan could attain strategical suprise in Pearl.




Panther Bait -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/23/2010 2:17:50 PM)

I'm not sure that a 1-year delay would benefit the Japanese all that much, it probably depends on how good an acting job they could pull off convincing the US/UK/Dutch that they were serious about peace. But I see a lot of problems.

1) Unless they really backed down and gave back territory to the Chinese, I don't see the US government believing the maskirovka. There had already been a lot of stop and start and promises before 1941. What I am not sure is what sort of goodwill gestures would be required of Japan to get the US to unfreeze its money and start sending oil again. I doubt highly that the US would ever have resumed shipment of armaments or other obvious war materials to Japan (especially with the UK needing all that could be supplied).

2) Even if the Japanese leadership could be convinced to play nice, they had a lot of crackpots in the military (esp. the Army) that would have resisted strongly any sort of attempt to give ground in China that had already been taken. Look at Japanese military/political history in the 30's and you can imagine the uprisings, mutinies, assassinations, etc. that would have taken place.

3) US rearmament was well underway by late 1941. Production was low, but increasing. The Army and Navy were expanding rapidly, and many of the war-winning planes (P-47, P-51, P-38, B-17, B-24, Corsair, etc.) were already under development and/or flying by 1941. The US Navy was in the middle of massive expansion already. Given another year of development without the need to field a military immediately, the US forces would have been much better equipped/trained/prepared in Dec 1942 than the troops that turned the tide in May-August 1942.

The real wildcard is what happens in Europe in 1942 without the Japanese involved. Does the US get involved in Europe through some other avenue? With the UK freed from responding to the Japanese, does that free up troops to concentrate on Germany?

I guess the best case scenario for Japan is that early in 1942, the US gets brought into the war against Germany. Both the UK and the US divert their efforts (and forces) heavily into Europe and get distracted, giving them an opportunity to strike. Unfortunately for them, there were enough people in the US military extremely distrustful of the Japanes (esp Adm King and others in the Navy) that I don't think the Navy (and the Marines) would be completely caught off guard. But who knows.

Anyway, those are my thoughts. Feel free to disagree.

Happy Holidays!
Mike



Sardaukar -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/23/2010 2:20:04 PM)

From Japanese viewpoint, 1942 would have been too late. Japanese envisioned they had 1-2 years of superiority in military power in Pacific 1941.

Some reasons why Japane went to war Dec 1941 were:

1. Embargo was strangling their economy, especially when it came to oil and scrap metal (essential operate to build new ships for them).
2. Japan was rapidly running out of oil reserves and IJN would not have been able to run even training even less offensive operations in late 1942 without oil from DEI.
3. US Two-Ocean Navy Bill would have been in full swing and IJN could not have hoped any superiority or even parity, considering first Essex CV etc. were due to arrive in 1943. We have to remember that this bill with all major ships was already introduced in 1940.

So "window of opportunity" was rapidly closing, as Japanese saw it.

H.P. Wilmott's "Empires in Balance" give great overview about these issues.



janh -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/23/2010 2:56:18 PM)

Given what Panther and Sardaukar say, the evident questions then is:  What would a fictional scenario that starts 1/1/41, or even in 1940, look like?



guctony -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/23/2010 4:28:31 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: janh

Given what Panther and Sardaukar say, the evident questions then is:  What would a fictional scenario that starts 1/1/41, or even in 1940, look like?

well thats what I really wonder. any start day change would mean extreme what if. If pearl attack postphoned two day it would probably mean catching the US CV forces off guard. And even though a later start of hostilities would mean a stronger allied force. But still war in the europe would draw most of it. and in one year of time Japan could gather enough CVs to form a second mobile group. Which is the most effective method Japan can do in their first phase of attack.



Sardaukar -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/23/2010 5:07:08 PM)

Later start would not been possible, since Japan's economy would have gone to almost total shut-down.

Japan was almost completely depending on imports, which US enhanced embargo stopped. After reserves would have run down, there would not been any ability to build up or sustain military force.

E.g. http://www1.american.edu/ted/ice/japan-oil.htm

Japan was importing 80% of it's oil from USA in 1940.

Other than oil in 1941:

Steel industry raw materials 88%
Zinc 50%
Tin 80%
Cotton 100%
Wool 99%
Rubber 100%

Where would have those new ships, planes etc. come from, if 80% of oil and 88% of steel would have been unavailabe for industry?



Pascal_slith -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/23/2010 6:27:25 PM)

You should read "Bankrupting the Enemy" by Miller (of "War Plan Orange" fame).

Also "To Have and Have Not" which is freely available through the University of California Press (a study of strategic materials available in Southeast Asia before the war)

Here's the link: http://publishing.cdlib.org/ucpressebooks/view?docId=ft4489n8wm&brand=ucpress

Essentially the Japanese had no choice but to start the war at the latest when they did.

A new book that is out that should also shed some very interesting light is "Cry Havoc" by Joe Maiolo. It's a history of the 1930's arms race.



guctony -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/23/2010 8:43:56 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sardaukar

Later start would not been possible, since Japan's economy would have gone to almost total shut-down.

Japan was almost completely depending on imports, which US enhanced embargo stopped. After reserves would have run down, there would not been any ability to build up or sustain military force.


Its like saying Japan had no other choise other then conduct war. Can really US could put Japan in such a position.
Its like they were forcing Japan to attack. I still like to belive there was a middle ground a Diplomatic ground in which Japan and US could prevent that bloody war.
But in other respect Maybe the war in Japan had much more post war influence then war in the Europe. It defined self determinanation of Peoples will. Under Treat People of US defined their will of fight as one nation. A Kind of honor graduate from league of Historical Nations.



guctony -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/23/2010 8:46:47 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Panther Bait

I'm not sure that a 1-year delay would benefit the Japanese all that much, it probably depends on how good an acting job they could pull off convincing the US/UK/Dutch that they were serious about peace. But I see a lot of problems.

1) Unless they really backed down and gave back territory to the Chinese, I don't see the US government believing the maskirovka. There had already been a lot of stop and start and promises before 1941. What I am not sure is what sort of goodwill gestures would be required of Japan to get the US to unfreeze its money and start sending oil again. I doubt highly that the US would ever have resumed shipment of armaments or other obvious war materials to Japan (especially with the UK needing all that could be supplied).

2) Even if the Japanese leadership could be convinced to play nice, they had a lot of crackpots in the military (esp. the Army) that would have resisted strongly any sort of attempt to give ground in China that had already been taken. Look at Japanese military/political history in the 30's and you can imagine the uprisings, mutinies, assassinations, etc. that would have taken place.

3) US rearmament was well underway by late 1941. Production was low, but increasing. The Army and Navy were expanding rapidly, and many of the war-winning planes (P-47, P-51, P-38, B-17, B-24, Corsair, etc.) were already under development and/or flying by 1941. The US Navy was in the middle of massive expansion already. Given another year of development without the need to field a military immediately, the US forces would have been much better equipped/trained/prepared in Dec 1942 than the troops that turned the tide in May-August 1942.

The real wildcard is what happens in Europe in 1942 without the Japanese involved. Does the US get involved in Europe through some other avenue? With the UK freed from responding to the Japanese, does that free up troops to concentrate on Germany?

I guess the best case scenario for Japan is that early in 1942, the US gets brought into the war against Germany. Both the UK and the US divert their efforts (and forces) heavily into Europe and get distracted, giving them an opportunity to strike. Unfortunately for them, there were enough people in the US military extremely distrustful of the Japanes (esp Adm King and others in the Navy) that I don't think the Navy (and the Marines) would be completely caught off guard. But who knows.

Anyway, those are my thoughts. Feel free to disagree.

Happy Holidays!
Mike


quote:

f


I agree that best time for Japan Attack would be a point where US entered war in Europe. But still The Furry Of US people would be much higher than Pearl alone this could be more of a backstabbing than former.



noguaranteeofsanity -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/23/2010 11:51:12 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: guctony


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sardaukar

Later start would not been possible, since Japan's economy would have gone to almost total shut-down.

Japan was almost completely depending on imports, which US enhanced embargo stopped. After reserves would have run down, there would not been any ability to build up or sustain military force.


Its like saying Japan had no other choise other then conduct war. Can really US could put Japan in such a position.
Its like they were forcing Japan to attack. I still like to belive there was a middle ground a Diplomatic ground in which Japan and US could prevent that bloody war.
But in other respect Maybe the war in Japan had much more post war influence then war in the Europe. It defined self determinanation of Peoples will. Under Treat People of US defined their will of fight as one nation. A Kind of honor graduate from league of Historical Nations.



Japan only had two choices, give in to the US demands that withdraw from China and Indochina before they discussed a diplomatic settlement, or go to war. Those were the only two options, as the US embargo on fuel, oil and other exports, would have eventually wiped out the Japanese economy and industry. They only had a matter of months to act, before the economy would have begun to suffer, due to the American embargo.

Prime Minister Konoe proposed meeting with the US to negotiate a diplomatic settlement, once plans for war were being discussed, but the US insisted that Japan withdraw from China first. The Japanese military refused to withdraw from China, as they saw this as having to give up the spoils of the war with China and a loss of face, both of which were unacceptable.

Konoe resigned, as it became clear the military preferred to go to war than withdraw from China, which allowed the military to effectively take control of the government, when Tojo became Prime Minister. In one final attempt to reach a diplomatic solution, the Japanese offered to withdraw from Indochina, if the Americans offered economic aid in return, but the Americans still refused to negotiate, unless Japan withdrew from China. So the decision to go to war, was the only acceptable option left for the Japanese government and military.



Sardaukar -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/24/2010 7:12:03 AM)

Indeed.

- Japan grossly underestimated USA military potential and resolve and thought they could get away with it, note that Japan was only major power in WWII who didn't aim for victory, but for stalemate and negotiations.

- USA and Roosevelt thought Japan could be deterred and that Japanese leadership would think rationally.

Both were wrong.

Basically, after Konoe's resignation, war was quite inevitable, since neither side was willing to back off. It's doubtful after Japan's internal history in 30's, that Konoe could have even gotten Japanese military to accept any withdrawal in China, most likely he'd have been assassinated by hot-heads (fate of many 30's politicians in Japan). IJN was bit more rational about peaceful solution and withdrawal, since it did view China as "Army show", but not much.



guctony -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/24/2010 10:28:18 AM)

That means that USA forced Japan to declare war. A gentle method to make USA enter war. In this respect it is clever. But I insist to ask what would happen If japan accepted to withdraw from China. Would it mean USA would send aid. or They would still force japan to declare war.

As a site not I always think that US carrier forces were in a perfect intercept position for mobile forces if japan prefered a western approach to Pearl. Did any one considered this. We always assume that american CVs were on training and replenishment mission. Maybe they were waiting something.




Sardaukar -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/24/2010 10:43:05 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: guctony

That means that USA forced Japan to declare war. A gentle method to make USA enter war. In this respect it is clever. But I insist to ask what would happen If japan accepted to withdraw from China. Would it mean USA would send aid. or They would still force japan to declare war.



Both USA and Britain thought they could deter Japan from further aggression and make them withdraw from China. There were lot of cultural, political and military misunderstandments made by both sides. War between Allies & Japan was not inevitable, but one has to understand that it was not Allies who forced it per se. Seeds of the war were sown by Japan's aggression and war with China already during 30's. Avoiding war would have meant that Japanese military and their influence would not have been what they were, that rational minds would have prevailed and Japan would have withdrawn from China (could probably have been able to keep Manchuria). This would have ended US embargo and relations would have returned to not friendly, but at least chilly cordial level.

Saying that USA forced Japan to war is akin to say that UK & France were guilty of starting WW II by guaranteeing independence of Poland. Neither USA or other Allies were aggressors in these episodes, they just simply told the aggressor that enough is enough.

Problem in Pacific was that those in Japan having main influence had imperialistic ambitions about their neighbours, which run to crash course with other powers of region, necessarily not less imperialistic ones.



guctony -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/24/2010 11:07:30 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sardaukar


quote:

ORIGINAL: guctony

That means that USA forced Japan to declare war. A gentle method to make USA enter war. In this respect it is clever. But I insist to ask what would happen If japan accepted to withdraw from China. Would it mean USA would send aid. or They would still force japan to declare war.



Both USA and Britain thought they could deter Japan from further aggression and make them withdraw from China. There were lot of cultural, political and military misunderstandments made by both sides. War between Allies & Japan was not inevitable, but one has to understand that it was not Allies who forced it per se. Seeds of the war were sown by Japan's aggression and war with China already during 30's. Avoiding war would have meant that Japanese military and their influence would not have been what they were, that rational minds would have prevailed and Japan would have withdrawn from China (could probably have been able to keep Manchuria). This would have ended US embargo and relations would have returned to not friendly, but at least chilly cordial level.

Saying that USA forced Japan to war is akin to say that UK & France were guilty of starting WW II by guaranteeing independence of Poland. Neither USA or other Allies were aggressors in these episodes, they just simply told the aggressor that enough is enough.

Problem in Pacific was that those in Japan having main influence had imperialistic ambitions about their neighbours, which run to crash course with other powers of region, necessarily not less imperialistic ones.



When I look at china ın Witp AE. It seems it is an unnescesary efford to keep it. Its strategical resources are not enough, not near the coast it requires an enourmous efford to keep it. I wish Japan leadership had some nerve to back up. If they left the china interal conflict would be more benefficent to Japan. I think if we add some common sense to Japan leadership and if evacuation of China would lead to USA aid. There can be some solid ground for a 1942 december Japan Suprise attack. Which probably would mean an USA that did not enter the war.

I am not willing to take this questioning to another ground But when you say imperialistic ambitions; what other ambitions had USA, Dutch, France, Russia, Germany had at that time. Expansion in terms of economical dominance is still the name of the game.From my point of view there is no differance having Dutch or Japan sitting on DEI.



Sardaukar -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/24/2010 11:36:31 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: guctony


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sardaukar


quote:

ORIGINAL: guctony

That means that USA forced Japan to declare war. A gentle method to make USA enter war. In this respect it is clever. But I insist to ask what would happen If japan accepted to withdraw from China. Would it mean USA would send aid. or They would still force japan to declare war.



Both USA and Britain thought they could deter Japan from further aggression and make them withdraw from China. There were lot of cultural, political and military misunderstandments made by both sides. War between Allies & Japan was not inevitable, but one has to understand that it was not Allies who forced it per se. Seeds of the war were sown by Japan's aggression and war with China already during 30's. Avoiding war would have meant that Japanese military and their influence would not have been what they were, that rational minds would have prevailed and Japan would have withdrawn from China (could probably have been able to keep Manchuria). This would have ended US embargo and relations would have returned to not friendly, but at least chilly cordial level.

Saying that USA forced Japan to war is akin to say that UK & France were guilty of starting WW II by guaranteeing independence of Poland. Neither USA or other Allies were aggressors in these episodes, they just simply told the aggressor that enough is enough.

Problem in Pacific was that those in Japan having main influence had imperialistic ambitions about their neighbours, which run to crash course with other powers of region, necessarily not less imperialistic ones.



When I look at china ưn Witp AE. It seems it is an unnescesary efford to keep it. Its strategical resources are not enough, not near the coast it requires an enourmous efford to keep it. I wish Japan leadership had some nerve to back up. If they left the china interal conflict would be more benefficent to Japan. I think if we add some common sense to Japan leadership and if evacuation of China would lead to USA aid. There can be some solid ground for a 1942 december Japan Suprise attack. Which probably would mean an USA that did not enter the war.

I am not willing to take this questioning to another ground But when you say imperialistic ambitions; what other ambitions had USA, Dutch, France, Russia, Germany had at that time. Expansion in terms of economical dominance is still the name of the game.From my point of view there is no differance having Dutch or Japan sitting on DEI.



UK, France or Dutch were no less imperialistic, they had just gotten there first, even though world had changed a bit since. US was late-comer in game and started this mainly with 1898 Spanish-US war.

Evacuating China would have been a good move for Japan, since it was a quackmire for IJA. Giving up Manchuria was impossible for them, since it was seen as buffer for Soviet aggression and safeguard for Korean peninsula.

If Japan had done that and hoarded resources and oil, it would have been possible for them to open hostilities later in 1942. But there is big problem about military balance. US and to small extent UK would have been immensely more powerful militarily in 1942 than in 1941. Japanese estimate in autumn 1941 was that their balance with US in Pacific was 70%-100%. With massive US military buildup, they estimated it to drop to 60%-100% in 1942 and to 50%-100% in 1943. Last figure was unacceptable for Japanese military, since 60%-100% balance was seen as bare minimum for self-defence and 50% was seen as not being able to even defend themselves against possible US aggression.

Japanese also estimated that US was able to build up military 10x faster than Japan, whose economy had been geared for war since early 30's and didn't have any slack, so to speak.

So you can see where that is leading, Japan estimated that they had about 6 months "window of opportunity" in late 1941, before known US military (especially naval) buildup would have made offensive vs. Allies very difficult if not outright impossible to succeed. In reality, Japanese even underestimated US build-up capacity. They took the opportunity when they still saw they had chances and wished to secure defensive perimeter and cause enough casualties force US/Allies to negotiate in 1943. Didn't quite work that way. They were also counting Germany to win in Europe... So if we think Dec 1942 start, Japan would already know that Germans were getting badly defeated in Stalingrad...

Maybe summer 1942 start would be feasible, but extra time for US to build up their forces would make things very difficult for Japan. On the other hand, IJA would have lot more troops available, but then, shipping to support and land them just was not there either. Problem for Japan is that their military and military economy run on shoestring. They just could not afford any defeat, unlike Allies could.

While you may have your initial success, due to timing and surprise, the time will come when you too will have your losses, but there will be this great difference. You will not only be unable to make up your losses, but will grow weaker as time grows on, while on the other hand we will not only make up our losses but will grow stronger as time goes on. It is inevitable that we will crush you before we are through with you.
- Admiral Harold Stark, USN, Chief of Naval Operations, speaking to the Japanese ambassador before the war.





Capt Hornblower -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/24/2010 6:36:24 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: guctony

... And would still japan could attain strategical suprise in Pearl.



The farther into 1942 you go, the harder it would be for the Japanese to attain surprise in an attack at Pearl Harbor. The radar installation in the Hawaiian Islands was only going to become more and more effective as time went on.



jwilkerson -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/24/2010 7:57:13 PM)


quote:


I am not willing to take this questioning to another ground ...

Good, this is wise. This thread has at times bordered on a "political" discussion which will get it shut down, so let's NOT go there. A purely historical or game based discussion is fine, but let's focus on the facts of the past and leave our opinions out of it, then we should be able to continue.

quote:


When I look at china ưn Witp AE. It seems it is an unnescesary efford to keep it. Its strategical resources are not enough, not near the coast it requires an enourmous efford to keep it. I wish Japan leadership had some nerve to back up


As to whether Japanese leadership could have given up China, well the historical record is pretty clear, that they had plenty of time to think about it, and were unable to bring themselves to do it. Having made a huge commitment and lost a lot of sons and made many promises to the mothers and fathers of those sons, they were unable to back off. China was definintely perceived as having value to Japan by Japan, hindsight might indicate otherwise to modern people, but decisions are made by people who sit in the shoes in which they sit at the time they sit in them. The Japanese leaders at that time would not have been Japanese leaders at that time had they been easily able to make different decisions. The leaders of any nation are the product of the people, the times, the culture etc. of that nation.

But, if someone wants to make an AE scenario that postulates a different start to the war, that can certainly be done. The scenario could be based on alternate historical assumptions, or not. If one would base a scenario on alternate historical assumptions, I would write those down and make them part of the scenario notes. I did something similar for my "Cautionaries" scenario for WPO which was an alternate history scenario, based on a breakdown of the 1922 Washington naval talks. This scenaio used information for both sides planning about a possible conflict, which had been ongoing since the early 1900s. So there is ample information available to make scenarios based on plausible alternate history assumptions, if one desire to go down that path.




AW1Steve -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/24/2010 9:09:30 PM)

Joe, I've been playing with the editor to, test other theories I've had, and it's amazing what the editor will let you do. One thing I haven't figured ,out...can you change the date that the war starts?
[&:]



oldman45 -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/25/2010 12:00:28 AM)

I think I remember reading somewhere that it has to start when it does.



olorin42 -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/25/2010 4:18:37 AM)

I think the best time for Japan to have gotten involved would have been as France was surrendering and Vichy France being declared. March into Vietnam and attach the Brits / Dutch by sea. The Brits had very little in the way of military assets in SE Asia. Bypass the Philipines. There's no way a US president will get a declaration of war against Japan in an election year (1940). Japan will have 6 months in 1940 to consolidate DEI/Malay/Burma and grab Rabaul/Moresby/Noumea/Suva. Except for Wake/Guam/Philipines, they could consolidate and fortify and those US possessions would be untenable.



Grfin Zeppelin -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/25/2010 5:23:59 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: olorin42

I think the best time for Japan to have gotten involved would have been as France was surrendering and Vichy France being declared. March into Vietnam and attach the Brits / Dutch by sea. The Brits had very little in the way of military assets in SE Asia. Bypass the Philipines. There's no way a US president will get a declaration of war against Japan in an election year (1940). Japan will have 6 months in 1940 to consolidate DEI/Malay/Burma and grab Rabaul/Moresby/Noumea/Suva. Except for Wake/Guam/Philipines, they could consolidate and fortify and those US possessions would be untenable.


Very smart and very true. The rapid events in Europe were hardly forseeable tho. But yes, this would have been the perfect moment. Everyone (even the soviets) were busy and Japan would have been in an amazing position after that.



jwilkerson -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/25/2010 6:29:44 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

Joe, I've been playing with the editor to, test other theories I've had, and it's amazing what the editor will let you do. One thing I haven't figured ,out...can you change the date that the war starts?
[&:]


You can certainly start a CG at a later date in AE. If you want an earlier date, you will have to switch games (to WPO).




Capt Hornblower -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/25/2010 10:04:40 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: jwilkerson


quote:

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

Joe, I've been playing with the editor to, test other theories I've had, and it's amazing what the editor will let you do. One thing I haven't figured ,out...can you change the date that the war starts?
[&:]


You can certainly start a CG at a later date in AE. If you want an earlier date, you will have to switch games (to WPO).




This seems tantalizing, but problematic. The idea of a 1940 summer start (as outlined above) is provocative. But using WPO to implement it would entail a humongous number of additions to the WPO database (or am I wrong?). If WPO was designed to have units that existed only up to 1930, then a 1940 campaign start would need to have a decade's worth of units added.

And then playing the scenario (as the Japanese) might be interesting, once. If Olorin42 and Grafin Zeppelin are right, the Japanese would achieve the aims they sought without war with the US. Would the US then enter a conflict post-election that was essentially a fait-accompli?



guctony -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/25/2010 10:41:15 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Capt Hornblower


quote:

ORIGINAL: jwilkerson


quote:

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

Joe, I've been playing with the editor to, test other theories I've had, and it's amazing what the editor will let you do. One thing I haven't figured ,out...can you change the date that the war starts?
[&:]


You can certainly start a CG at a later date in AE. If you want an earlier date, you will have to switch games (to WPO).




This seems tantalizing, but problematic. The idea of a 1940 summer start (as outlined above) is provocative. But using WPO to implement it would entail a humongous number of additions to the WPO database (or am I wrong?). If WPO was designed to have units that existed only up to 1930, then a 1940 campaign start would need to have a decade's worth of units added.

And then playing the scenario (as the Japanese) might be interesting, once. If Olorin42 and Grafin Zeppelin are right, the Japanese would achieve the aims they sought without war with the US. Would the US then enter a conflict post-election that was essentially a fait-accompli?



Hımm one way around this problem in AE would be defining 1942 june as 1940 June changing every date accordingly. This would be easy and intresting.



jwilkerson -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/25/2010 2:32:38 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: guctony
I would like ask you would it be feasible for Japan to start a war in 1942 preferably december 1942.


Actually the OP proposed at Dec 1942 start which can be done in AE.

In WPO the latest you can start (due to hard coded date limitations) is about 1933 (or is it 1932 - I forget). I've gone back as early as 1900 in WPO, but there is a gap between 1933-1940 that is currently not covered by either game.




mike scholl 1 -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/25/2010 4:29:44 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: olorin42

I think the best time for Japan to have gotten involved would have been as France was surrendering and Vichy France being declared. March into Vietnam and attach the Brits / Dutch by sea. The Brits had very little in the way of military assets in SE Asia. Bypass the Philipines. There's no way a US president will get a declaration of war against Japan in an election year (1940). Japan will have 6 months in 1940 to consolidate DEI/Malay/Burma and grab Rabaul/Moresby/Noumea/Suva. Except for Wake/Guam/Philipines, they could consolidate and fortify and those US possessions would be untenable.




The real question would be "How ready were the Japanese to do ANYTHING at this point?". They had no one in position to "March into French Indochina..", nor had they massed the shipping or troops to invade anything at that point. So they would have been caught as "flat-footed" as the rest of the world.

But as a starting point to prepare for such operations it would be interesting, and the opposition would certainly be distracted and unprepared even if it took several months to set up (The US hadn't even begun their peacetime draft yet.).



Lameduck -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/25/2010 9:11:34 PM)

Well, France surrendered on June 22, 1940, and Japan moved into Vietnam in September 1940 so it didn't take too long for them to react. Since they spent some time making an agreement with the Vichy government, they could have moved quicker. For a what-if scenario you could have Japan declaring war in June 1940 when Italy did.



mike scholl 1 -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/25/2010 10:00:42 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lameduck

Well, France surrendered on June 22, 1940, and Japan moved into Vietnam in September 1940 so it didn't take too long for them to react. Since they spent some time making an agreement with the Vichy government, they could have moved quicker. For a what-if scenario you could have Japan declaring war in June 1940 when Italy did.



True..., but it was almost a year later when they finally occupied Saigon---so they really can't have been all that ready to exploit France's fall. As I said, the Summer of 1940 makes an interesting starting point for Japanese preparations. Including the "what if" factor of how much they can do without triggering US economic retaliation (which pretty much puts a time limit on when they HAVE to go to war or back down.



Lameduck -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/25/2010 10:32:24 PM)

I think a Japanese DOW in June 1940 would have been a different situation. The move into north Vietnam was part of an agreement with Vichy to cut supplies to China; the move into south Vietnam was to get bases to attack the rest of the SRA. If Japan had moved in 1940, would an economic embargo mattered as much? With the BEF at Dunkirk, the French government fleeing to Bourdeaux, and the Netherlands already ocupied, there would be few extra troops to send. If Japan had the oil of the DEI, how much effect would the embargo have? The big question is how long would American isolationism last. The US Two Ocean Act was in July of 1940 so I don't think a US military build up could have been speeded up much.



mike scholl 1 -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/26/2010 2:18:25 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lameduck

I think a Japanese DOW in June 1940 would have been a different situation. The move into north Vietnam was part of an agreement with Vichy to cut supplies to China; the move into south Vietnam was to get bases to attack the rest of the SRA. If Japan had moved in 1940, would an economic embargo mattered as much? With the BEF at Dunkirk, the French government fleeing to Bourdeaux, and the Netherlands already ocupied, there would be few extra troops to send. If Japan had the oil of the DEI, how much effect would the embargo have? The big question is how long would American isolationism last. The US Two Ocean Act was in July of 1940 so I don't think a US military build up could have been speeded up much.



Again, the real question is just how ready the Japanese would have been to start a war "off the cuff" to take advantage of Germany's totally unexpected victory in the West. Japan could not afford to hamstring her economy by allowing the Army and Navy to requisition millions of tons of merchant shipping just to have it sitting around available "in case" an opportunity arose. Even if the decision to go to war was taken at the end of June, 1940 it would still have taken months to make the preparations, assemble the troops and supplies, allocate the shipping and covering forces, etc.



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