guctony -> RE: 1942 war start what if ideas (12/26/2010 10:10:55 PM)
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ORIGINAL: JWE quote:
ORIGINAL: Sardaukar Dec 1940 attack would have been interesting. It would give IJA/IJN 5 months to prepare... But what was the readiness of Japanese military in Dec 1940? One alternative history option is to have Japan to decide to attack after German success in West 1940 followed by US Two Ocean Navy Act. They would been close to each other and Japan viewed latter as very serious indeed. Quick wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-Ocean_Navy_Act These two things might have been enough to convince Japan to try surprise attack IF they would have same leadership as in later 1941... Question is, were they capable for PH in Dec 1940? Well, there was no Shokaku, no Zuikaku, the additional airgroups authorized in the 1937 plan were not even completely formed, much less trained. There was no Yamato, and it took Japan 7 months to implement Fleet mobilization and auxiliary conversion. Given the daily time-line of reality, the IJN was not ready for operations until 08/41, and then, barely. And that was just the IJN. In 1940, the IJA was still trying to come to grips with Nomonhan, in its peculiar, arrogant fashion; nan-deska! Believe that Japanese preparations for war went as fast as possible, on an irl basis, given the irl facts of the time - intensified from the day of the Nazi/Soviet pact, and maximized once the shooting started in Poland. Given the lead times required, there really isn't any way that serious operations could be pursued prior to summer 1941. One would have to move the invasion and defeat of France back to 1939 in order to anticipate japanese operational readiness in late 1940, given the physical constraints on mobilization/readiness timing. As to PH, the IJN did not have the CVs, nor the planes, nor the oilers, in 1940. Neither did it have its 'qualitative' battle-line ships to oppose the US battle fleet in the event the strike failed. It would have been an opportunistic risk of an insane degree and gone against every grain of doctrine that the IJN spent decades developing. So, don't think it was possible for Japan to do a nasty in 1940. But one can never get a worm into the brain of someone like Tojo, or Ogaki, so there's always the possibility of highly irrational behavior. still there is a huge benefit in taking action june 1940. It doesnt even call for PH attack. If everything dealth before election. It is a limited action in DEI. Securing oil in 1940 would mean alot of things. A one year action agains British in DEI would certainly mean a seperate peace with British. Even not. How could US perform any kind of embargo if DEI is in the hand of Japan. Hitler A self educated capacity did only succeed in Europe for a while because he did not hesitate.
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