RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (Full Version)

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IdahoNYer -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/18/2011 5:56:55 AM)

16th Army doesn't do too badly. Of six attacks, three are held - although one hold hex is attacked again with a retreat result. Casualties are heavy for the Russians, and they do not occupy any of the "won" hexes.

9th Pz was pulled off the line, and sits in reserve at the important crossroads of Bologoe.

For this turn, we'll attempt to re-occupy the enemy zocs, just to convert them - pulling back immediately. I don't want to pull back too far, as this would expose 9th Army to the south in a salient and force it to abandon Kalinin - and I'm not quite ready to do that.

[image]local://upfiles/32782/9E66857E0171410E97B5357728D68C5B.jpg[/image]



IdahoNYer -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/18/2011 6:17:59 AM)

9th Army manages to avoid most Soviet attacks, only south of Kalinin does it receive any attacks, and holds one.

4th Pz Armee fairs less well, and reals under the weight of the Soivet attacks. LVI PzKps was pulled out of the line to the rear, but XIV PzKps remained forward. Will attempt to re-occupy the enemy ZOCs to convert them, and will slowly pull back to the fortified line being built.

The Soviet attacks here are primary with massed rifle divisions - lots of combat power, but little chance for a decisive breaktrhough.

[image]local://upfiles/32782/4A29AD82DADB48B38443FADF89D3E668.jpg[/image]



IdahoNYer -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/18/2011 6:28:11 AM)

Between Moscow and Tula, the Soviets also use mass infantry assaults to pound their way forward. Most of the panzer divs were pulled off the line prior to the attacks, only 20th Pz was engaged in a defensive fight. 2nd Pz Armee's XXIV PzKps remained north, bolstering 4th Army - holding off the line for potential counterattacks.

I'm going to try and hold Kaluga, which means holding the line farther forward than is probably smart - we'll see how that works out. I figure I'm 2/3s the way through the blizzard - only a coule of turns left....

[image]local://upfiles/32782/A8F3DC3FC99B4E8CABB3A73F61564214.jpg[/image]



IdahoNYer -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/19/2011 3:26:50 AM)

To the south of 4th Army, 2nd Army takes it on the chin. Without prepared positions, and most formations just arriving in line, the troops do not hold up well against the mass Soviet infantry attacks.

Will continue to trade some space for time, priority is holding Orel in this area of the Front. 3xPz Divs from 2nd Pz Armee remain in Orel as a ready reserve to counterattack should we get snow again.

The challenge is to hold Orel without supporting fortified works - the terrain is pretty open, and the Soviets are pushing hard - but with infantry and not cavalry/tank combinations which is at least some good news.

[image]local://upfiles/32782/FD1DC89599304065BFFFC53CC0D232ED.jpg[/image]



IdahoNYer -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/19/2011 3:37:16 AM)

Responsible for the frontline from Kursk to Belgorod, 6th Army is bolstered by both 1st Pz Armee PzKps immediately behind the front lines. Soviet pressure was limited to a narrow 30m wide attack zone aimed squarely at Kursk - which has a very robust infantry division as a garrison.

Priority here is to hold both Kursk and Belgorod, while trading space for time elsewhere. The Kursk-Belgorod Rail line is an active line that supported the attack north to cut off Orel earlier, and right now is threatend and likely will be lost.

With the two PzKps available, 6th Army's position is much better than it's neighbor to the north.

[image]local://upfiles/32782/418223A0CEFA4812A22DF6A17E7119D9.jpg[/image]



IdahoNYer -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/19/2011 3:44:17 AM)

17th Army has arguably the longest frontage of any German Army on the line. Along most of it, it remains quiet throughout the blizzard. So far, Kharkov, only 30 miles behind the front, has remained safe and secure.

Of course, behind this quiet frontage, the initial reserves (10 Pz, 60th Mot) have long since been pulled elsewhere......and not been replaced.


[image]local://upfiles/32782/A72D1AFAB246416DB879D7F463A689AB.jpg[/image]



IdahoNYer -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/19/2011 3:52:51 AM)

However, at the boundary between 17th and 11th Armies, the Soviets make a solid push. With a Mountain Div detached to bolster 11th Army further south, the Soviets make good progress. 17th Army will pull back its furthest eastern positions and attempt to re-establish a better position.

11th Army is realing - with XXXXVI PzKps pulled off the line, and the Rumanians useless, the Soviets also make headway here as well. 11th Army will also trade space for time, hopefully preventing a linkup with the Soviet forces pushing north from the Crimea.

[image]local://upfiles/32782/7406E7420F164D8F92D2804E9ABB10F5.jpg[/image]



IdahoNYer -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/19/2011 4:36:57 AM)

Last in the line, fighting against the Soviets attacking from the Crimea is the newly positioned 18th Army. Soviet's don't let up the pressure here either. With 4 of 18th Army's 8 German divisions still moving toward the front, the best the German's can do right now is delay.

While I don't want to pull back all the way to the Dniepr in the NW, or allow a linkup with Soviets attacking from the Donets Basin, I've starting fortifying positions along the Dniepr - just in case.

I'm hoping that the Soviets didn't anticipate success here, and are limiting in reinforcing their success - I know, hope is not a method, but right now, its all I have.....

[image]local://upfiles/32782/8D13F5C7F0174BEEA2B7410226657F64.jpg[/image]



IdahoNYer -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/20/2011 8:13:00 PM)

Turn 35, Feb 12, 1942

Soviets continue heavy attacks along a broad front - apparently attempting to secure cities near the frontlines. Tank Bdes are introduced in a few of the attacks, as are cavalry corps. More holds are achieved, which is probably an indication of fatigue on the Soviets rather than a more robust defensive system. Truth is, I'm past most "stop lines" I had constructed with fortified units - the only thing I'm convinced that will "stop" Soviet progress is the end of the blizzard season.

Screen shots show end of the German portion of turn 35.

9th Army is the victim this turn of heavy Soviet pressure - largely spared so far, it is not equipped to respond to the pressue. Particularly worrisome is the attacks north of Kalinin - if successfull will collapse the line in front of Moscow.
So, I rail out LVI Pzkps (2xPz,1xMot) to counterattack the lead Soviet Tank Bdes - and the Soviets hold TWO hasty attacks!! This is not good.

With pressure on 16th Army to the north, and 9th Army unable to stablize the front with a heavy counter attack, the forecast is bleak!

Priority is still to retain Kalinin as it is a key stepping stone for future attacks toward Moscow from the north.


[image]local://upfiles/32782/5123135164034E00A19E419CD977E8F5.jpg[/image]



IdahoNYer -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/20/2011 8:30:03 PM)

Further south, near Kursk, the Soviets make a very concentrated push to penetrate the front. Fortunately for the Germans, 1st Pz Armee with 3xPz and 2xMot Divs are backing up 6th Army here. In fact the Soviets do succeed in creating a "bulge" in the German lines some 30 miles deep in a week of attacks - right between the two PzKps of 1st Pz Armee. III PzKps attacks from the north, then returns to Kursk. XXXXVIII PzKps attacks from the south, then assumes a fallback position behind at the tip of the Soviet penetration - just in case the Soviets attempt to continue the attack west. The result of the counterattack...5 of 6 Tk Bdes routed, front line re-established, and the PzKps ready for the next thrust.

Although successful, the counterattack is a temporary fix. The Soviets can, and likely will, continue their "steamroller" massed infantry attacks - which are successful in pushing the German line west. The counterattacks do limit the Soviet ability to "exploit" with Tank Bdes - which are vulnerable to the counterattack, even in Blizzard.

[image]local://upfiles/32782/4A96CDEA6D8544DE8974626983B0F80E.jpg[/image]



karonagames -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/20/2011 8:42:47 PM)

quote:

Kalinin as it is a key stepping stone for future attacks toward Moscow from the north.


Absolutely - if you hold Kalinin come the summer, then Moscow is pretty much in the bag.



IdahoNYer -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/21/2011 6:27:23 AM)

Turn 37; Feb 26, 1942....Screen shots showing the Soviet attacks from last turn.

As the Blizzard winds down toward the end of Feb [&o], the Soviets appear to be transitioning to the defense along most of the Front. While that is a welcome respite to the three months of pounding attacks, it just means little opportunity for a rapid counterattack in the snow before mud hits....and probably a pretty good fortified line to overcome in a summer offensive.

In any case, pressure on 16th and 9th Armies has easied considerably. While we lost Vyshny Volochek, Kalinin just might be held - as well as a nice salient held by 9th Army. Good jumping off points for summer offensives.

Of course, this could just be a re-grouping for one last push. 4th Pz Armee's LVI PzKps remains north to bolster 9th Army's northern flank just in case. Priority remains to hold Kalinin.

[image]local://upfiles/32782/4EE9EC992C024BFFB0532F37EEF548D8.jpg[/image]



IdahoNYer -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/21/2011 6:44:19 AM)

In front of Moscow, Scar maintains the pressure, but not where I feared, and expected. The red arrows show where I was majorly concerned that he would continue to push - flanking the 4th Pz Armee by pushing around its flanks. Instead, he opted to grind foward at the tip of the salient. Effective that the attacks pushed the Germans back, but no chance of breakthrough or critical threat to the German rear areas. Fine by me at this point. While 4th Pz still has some viable combat power, most of 3rd Pz Armee is spent.

The other good news is that 4th Army's L Korps held on to Kaluga and defeated a major Soviet attack.

Focus remains to hold Kaluga, and if possible, hold the front as close to Moscow as possible. Priority remains holding Kaluga.

[image]local://upfiles/32782/EC1053BDD6F44DA695F6D68D56618968.jpg[/image]



IdahoNYer -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/21/2011 6:49:47 AM)

Between Kaluga and Orel, the pressure relaxes significantly. I expected continued mass infantry attacks along 2nd Army's front and that did not occur. XL PzKps remains in Orel with over 300 panzers, ready for counterattack. I think the Soviets have shot their bolt here and are transitioning to the defense. (Fingers crossed)

[image]local://upfiles/32782/72D175748AB1447DA8D119511FCFC175.jpg[/image]



IdahoNYer -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/21/2011 6:56:45 AM)

The Soviets make limited attacks toward Kursk, nothing that really threatens the city with III PzKps deployed to defend it. Like to the north by Orel, I think the Soviets have transitioned to the defense. Priority is to hold Kursk, but also to build up strength for a counter attack.

[image]local://upfiles/32782/787DDD1781A145148AAE13CAC98E22BA.jpg[/image]



IdahoNYer -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/21/2011 7:10:24 AM)

From Kharkov south, the front is remarkably quiet. Very surprisingly, neither 17th, 11th, or even 18th Army is pressed. Considering that 11th Army was, with the exception of XXXXVI PzKps, largely in an "unready" status - this is fantastic news. I was very concerned that the Soviets would link up with the Crimean forces. Apparently that is not going to happen.

With only XXXXVI PzKps in the area, there won't be much opportunity for a quick counterattack here.

It is time to give some thought on where to:

1. Launch a winter counter attack before mud hits - probably just local attacks considering the overall shape of the army.
2. Launch the summer offensive. Moscow should be the priority, but it might be too heavily defended. Need to think on this some more....

[image]local://upfiles/32782/9A73F4F2DA9D4E2CABC48537131093ED.jpg[/image]



Q-Ball -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/21/2011 9:45:04 PM)

You appear to be the first German player to emerge from the Blizzard in some sort of reasonable shape. Nice job!

I also think your opponent made many many fundamental errors, including:

-Linear Defense
-Complete lack of aggressiveness in the Summer (passing up easy counterattacks)
-Running when he didn't have to
-Failure to mass reserve armies in winter

Nevertheless, you have taken advantage of all of that and apparently made it through in OK shape.

Post losses and strengths, but you appear to be in OK shape!



Ketza -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/22/2011 6:50:22 AM)

Can you post losses?



76mm -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/22/2011 11:00:26 AM)

Nice job getting through the blizzard.

Just curious, in your blizzard battles, what was the typical loss ratio for Germans/Russians? As Sovs, I am typcially seeing losses about 1.5 times German losses, but sometimes parity.




IdahoNYer -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/23/2011 4:28:33 AM)

Q-Ball:

-Linear Defense: Was wondering that myself - Scar told me he pulled back alot of troops to fortify rear-ward positions. Made it hell to cross the Dneipr.
-Complete lack of aggressiveness in the Summer (passing up easy counterattacks): Yeah, that's one take away if/when I play the Russians - indirect counterattack whenever possible - cutting off German spearheads and pushing regiments back. His first attack was very, very late.
-Running when he didn't have to: He was definately in Sir Robin mode until I closed on Vyazma. Then it was hold until you die - at this point, when I expected him to pull back, he stayed resulting in two very large, late campaign pockets.
-Failure to mass reserve armies in winter: I truthfully think he was just out of troops with less than 4 million avail at the onset of Blizzard.

76mm:

Blizzard battles when the Soviets were successful, resulted in about 1 - 1.5 loss ration German/Soviet. Very seldom did the German losses
grossly exceed the Soviets in a Soviet win. If the Germans held, could expect a few hundred German or less to a couple thousand Soviet.

Will post some loss/combat power screens shortly....



76mm -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/23/2011 4:39:07 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: IdahoNYer
Blizzard battles when the Soviets were successful, resulted in about 1 - 1.5 loss ration German/Soviet. Very seldom did the German losses
grossly exceed the Soviets in a Soviet win. If the Germans held, could expect a few hundred German or less to a couple thousand Soviet.


This is very consistent with what I'm seeing, although sometimes the Sovs do get spanked with several thousand losses.



IdahoNYer -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/23/2011 5:39:39 AM)

OK, screen shot shows the losses as of the beginning of turn 38; March 5, 1942 - official end of the blizzard[:)]

So, some interesting figures. In the first 25 weeks of the war, from Jun 22nd through Dec 4th, the losses were as follows:

German: Soviet
592,760 men 4,313,481
6911 guns 54,477
2820 AFV 14, 828

275,495 killed 816,841
7,956 captured 2,600,354
309,309 disabled 896,286

In the approx 14 weeks of blizzard, the losses were:

German: Soviet
977,458 men 949,881
10,429 guns 10,203
1096 AFV 1558

125,873 killed 614,330
9,372 captured 65,620
842,213 disabled 269,631

What strikes me most from these figures (if my math is right) is the balance of losses during the blizzard - now this includes finishing off the Orel-Bryansk Pocket, but overall, the Germans didn't do too badly, getting almost a 1-1 loss rate overall. The other figure that strikes me is the very large number of Soviet killed - didn't expect that many at all!

Still, the Germans can't affort 1-1 losses, blizzard or no blizzard.

[image]local://upfiles/32782/88F788613B0F4FBB945B43EEA1FA99B9.jpg[/image]



IdahoNYer -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/23/2011 6:21:15 AM)

Forces available on turn 38 below.

Very interesting comparison to what was available 14 turns earlier....

Men: Germans -519,673. Russian +741,717. No real surprises there
Guns: German -3,746. Russian +15,874. Alot more Soviet guns, and were felt in the attacks. Only going to get worse.
AFV: German +109 Russian +508. Very surprised to see more German AFVs, especially since I fought w/the panzers
A/C: German -101 Russian +508. Not as bad as I thought.

[image]local://upfiles/32782/4A57B33139A84D34A12CDCC3D83662CD.jpg[/image]



Alikchi2 -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/23/2011 7:31:55 AM)

Congratulations, sir! You're in decent shape. Press on!



Speedysteve -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/23/2011 9:02:58 AM)

Agreed. Looking good overall. Nice job [8D]



IdahoNYer -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/24/2011 4:49:10 AM)

Forgot this one screen shot last night.

Alot of conversation on the AAR message boards about keeping the panzers away from the fighting in cities during the blizzard. Well, I didn't do that - wanted to keep the panzers as a counter attack force, especially with variable weather if/when we had a snow turn.

This screen shot shows the strength of the German Panzer divisions on March 5th, 1942. I added a brief comment on how the division was "primarily" used during the blizzard. As you can see, a number of divisions are in pretty good shape - although all took a little hit with experience as losses were replaced. Numbers of panzers aren't that bad, except for 19th and 20th which got stuck holding the line for an extended period and got banged around a bit. So did 18th Pz, but was able to pull it out of the line for the final few weeks. 10th Pz was on its own in the south, and "rode hard".

Would I do it this way again, probably....think it was a "realistic" way to fight in the blizzard, and the panzers did provide an good punch for counter attacking a few times.

Now, the real question is, really two questions....

1. When will the Wehrmacht be ready to continue its offensive campaign to knock the Soviets out of the war in 1942?
2. How to best accomplish that?
- Main effort to take Moscow above all else?
- Main effort in the south to drive to Rostov to take out the Stalino area; Crimea and perhaps even Veronezh?
- Combination of both or someone else have other ideas?

Any and all ideas welcome??

[image]local://upfiles/32782/735F84FAA19E488A9853E3082CDCEB42.jpg[/image]



Mynok -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/24/2011 5:30:47 AM)


Show your infantry TOE's. That's where the truth lies for 42.



karonagames -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/24/2011 10:22:08 AM)

quote:

Show your infantry TOE's. That's where the truth lies for 42.


Agreed. Now is the time to adjust your TOE%s to get your attack divisions in shape for the summer. You should be able to get about 60% of your infantry to 80%+, the rest will have to survive on 50% TOE.

In your situation I would be planning a 2 phase Campaign; the first phase would use 2 Panzer armies assembled around Kharkov to Drive on Rostov, with the objective of isolating the Southern flank. A strong infantry thrust supported by one mech corps along the coast to get the ports and sources of supply. With Soviet attention firmly on the South, and their reserves committed to the defence of the Caucasus, I would start phase 2 probably about early August- the drive on Moscow based on one panzer Army pushing through Kalinin from the North, and one Panzer Army, possibly supported by a second driving through Tula from the South.



Klydon -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/24/2011 1:34:53 PM)

Mynok and BigA beat me to it. Historically, the Germans had several smaller operations in late spring (mostly dealing with Russian attacks, but also retaking some territory). They kicked off the Crimea campaign the first part of June and did not open the "big offensive" until nearly the end of June. I think that is too long to wait to a point to be honest, but you do have to be somewhat careful of mud.

The other thing you will have to deal with is the huge influx of Axis allied forces and what you plan on doing with them.



IdahoNYer -> RE: Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar (3/25/2011 5:17:20 AM)

As requested, Infantry Div (German only) TOEs for March 5, 1942. This screen shows the units in the worst shape.

[image]local://upfiles/32782/ED9D79AA638C4A43BD5AA1ADD346AD84.jpg[/image]



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