Combined Chiefs of Staff's Supercomputer's Report [no Saros] (Full Version)

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kfsgo -> Combined Chiefs of Staff's Supercomputer's Report [no Saros] (2/1/2011 2:33:47 AM)

Hi. I've never produced one of these ungainly things, nor played a PBEM game. Or taken an AI game past...March 1942? (my computer's ancient, so turns are slooooow). So, this should be a learning experience. Saros has played one PBEM game before, as far as I'm aware ended by a decisive battle in the Java Sea he (the Allies) came out on top of, the twit, presumably also around March 1942.

Game is:

Scen. 1
Non-historical-ish start (Force Z buggered off, but I didn't do much else);
US torpedoes engineered by brain-damaged weasels;
Manual sub ops;
No strategic bombing into China (out of China fine)
"Let's not do anything too dumb with fighter ceilings"

I'm not going to puke combat reports at anyone and probably won't post many screenshots (too lazy), so it'll just be me condensing and yapping, I'm afraid.

Unlike I suspect most people who play this game, I don't have a 'wargaming' background, so WITP is still a little alien even after quite a few months. Unfortunately it's ruined Hearts of Iron for me completely, so I'm stuck with it. Since this is a Scen1 game, and since it's my first 'consequences' game, I'm going to be giving in to my natural urge to be a hypercautious ditherer for the foreseeable future in the expectation (well...hope, really) that I'll get away with it, rather than going straight for the throat and taking some Japanese with me. ANYWAY:



kfsgo -> RE: Combined Chiefs of Staff's Supercomputer's Report [no Saros] (2/1/2011 2:44:55 AM)

We're about a week and a half into the game, so the first few days I'm going to write up from memory over the next 24 hours or so.

Dec. 7

Raid on Pearl Harbour and...basically nowhere else. Maryland is wrecked topside but all the fleet can make 18kts bar a couple of destroyers and California, which ate three torpedoes - two from Kates and one from a midget. Considered putting them to sea but decided further sinkings were unlikely in port but likely out in the deep blue - I'm pretty hypercautious so force preservation takes priority over winning battles in my head. Overcoming that will probably be important at some point in the near future. Sometimes there are consequences and sometimes there are not. Besides, it'd be a pretty short game if it worked, and running away, while actually fairly practical, probably wouldn't have been contemplated.

Insanity prevails in Singapore, and Force Z sails for the Bangka Strait and then on to Batavia. The Phillippines aren't attacked at all; apparently the Japanese pilots got into the sake.

Dec. 8

Hawaiian forces set for night searches and naval attacks. Unfortunately while the Japanese did a poor job on the fleet they did an excellent job on the airfield infrastructure, which I guess can't support raids today. Carrier location unknown; Enterprise, Lexington and the minesweeper group are headed for Christmas Island and then on to the Golden Gate.

Asiatic Fleet combat units in Manila depart. An eager-beaver destroyer squadron streaks past the minesweeping group into Bataan, and three of four choke on mines. Evacuation isn't total - the game being what it is I don't expect many fugitives to make it, so the submarine tenders and some small merchants stay to keep things running for a couple of weeks. USS Houston is lunging for Surabaya via Tarakan, USS Boise for Batavia via North Borneo. Hedging bets.

Landings on northern Luzon hit an undefended beach, and landing on the Malay peninsula hit Kota Bharu. A large force also disgorges Japanese at Kuching.

Heavy mining operations off eastern Malaya - Mersing is worrying and has seen a lot of overflights. I am dithering over which side of the Johore strait to defend, and fortifying both for the time being. Forces in northern Malaya are beginning to withdraw bar a pair of independent batallions, which will attempt to buy a day or two in poor terrain. The first of several merchant convoys follows - HMS Mauritius inhales a torpedo from I-15something. Damage is not critical but will need a holiday in Suf Ifrika.

Hong Kong MTB squadron lunges towards the Pescadores and runs into a destroyer flotilla, returning at half strength. I literally flipped a coin on Pescadores vs Samah - didn't quite work out. Hong Kong is not expected to last long; evacuation of critical supplies direction Manila is probably expected, so the merchants are instead loading for Kwangchouwan except the largest, which will test the China Sea just in case. Poor buggers. HK destroyer squadron is departing fast to the south; Manila, North Borneo and Singapore being the objectives.



kfsgo -> RE: Combined Chiefs of Staff's Supercomputer's Report [no Saros] (2/1/2011 11:16:10 PM)

Dec. 9

Japanese carrier aircraft raid Pearl Harbour again; apparently they got into whatever the Taiwanese groups were drinking yesterday...yesterday. The fleet's average speed is down to about 15kts versus 18, mostly due to system damage accumulating, but there still haven't been any sinkings and Japanese air losses were heavy - somewhere around 50 aircraft, mostly Kates and Vals. Still, everyone should back in working order by around the end of April.

Japanese forces have a foothold in northern Luzon. They brought some fighters with them - 50 or so Nates rise to meet USAAF fighter sweeps, losing around 20 aircraft and shooting down 5. Irritatingly the one pilot killed was the only guy with exp over 80 on the entire map. Japanese sweeps over Clark go home empty-handed, all the residents being away.

USS Boise meets a fraction of the departing Kuching invasion force, sinking two freighters and "cruiser" Kashii for no damage in return, then encounters a heavy cruiser squadron and scuttles away towards Batavia after dodging a dozen torpedoes at 2000yds. Kuching falls. One of the CAs is heading home minus a turret courtesy of the MLD.

Kota Bharu falls; dithering continues in Johor.

Dec. 10

Japanese carriers head west; none of the night strikes over the past few days flew, which is a shame. A fast reinforcement convoy leaves San Francisco with two infantry regiments; air search suggests Japanese submarines are swarming along the direct approaches to Pearl Harbour but avoiding the 'side' entrance past Oahu and into the shallows, so shipping will head in that way along with high-frequency PT patrols to keep any subs underwater.

Hong Kong falls. About 8000 tons of supplies make it through to Kwangchowan; every little helps here, I suppose.

Japanese beachhead on Luzon grows to include Aparri and Laoag. A second day of sweeps trades 18! Nates for one P-40, with Japanese return punches again hitting air. There's no way Clark won't be bombed tomorrow, so CAP will go up instead. Expected lifespan is short, but they've had their fun. An SNLF lands at Atimonan, capturing it.







Cribtop -> RE: Combined Chiefs of Staff's Supercomputer's Report [no Saros] (2/1/2011 11:44:28 PM)

Welcome to AE PBEMing. It's a nerve-wracking good time. Best of luck and well done with that damn Boise, the terror of the IJN!



kfsgo -> RE: Combined Chiefs of Staff's Supercomputer's Report [no Saros] (2/2/2011 12:29:15 AM)

Dec. 11

Clark Field is bombed. Japanese fighters are tied to the bombers, so the CAP does ok, but there are far too many of them to be able to prevent damage.

Japanese forces land at and capture Brunei. The HK destroyer squadron is refueling and attempts to intervene but runs into another Japanese cruiser squadron; lots of shells and torpedoes fly, but there's not too much damage to anyone involved, so they're now racing towards Singapore.

USS Langley is sunk by surface forces 90 miles north of Manado. The only escapee from Luzon is the small liner Rochambeau, which manages to duck out of this convoy after being lightly ventilated. Every other ship sent out has been sunk by aircraft or gunfire. A small Japanese carrier looks like it might try and push down the Makassar strait; Dutch bombers will take a crack at it tomorrow if it does.


Dec. 12

HK destroyers reach Singapore. They're engaged in the Singapore hex itself by a second Japanese squadron headed by CL Sendai, but it's another inconclusive mess. Suits me. Also at Singapore is the other old British destroyer; I wll probably keep the four of them here for a little while and use them up the west coast of Malaya; they can always shoot off direct to Colombo as long as Singapore stands.

B-17s from Cagayan bomb Palau, with a destroyer tender and a fleet oiler both reportedly hit twice. Dutch aircraft flying from Balikpapan try for a pair of heavy cruisers ****footing around south of Tarakan but don't manage to hit anything.

Wake Island falls to a large Japanese force; a submarine bounces a torpedo off CL Yubari in the process. Dutch submarines have bagged a couple of large transports, but US submarines haven't acheived anything so far, assuming nothing's hit any of the mines they've laid.





kfsgo -> RE: Combined Chiefs of Staff's Supercomputer's Report [no Saros] (2/2/2011 1:50:30 AM)

Dec. 13

Japanese 11th and 12th IMBs are surrounded in heavy terrain east of Changsha. A third Japanese unit is moving offroad to break them out, but it'll take a while. Works for me. Up on the plains, a full Japanese division is haring off eastwards in pursuit of 45av worth of Chinese making a dash for the coast.

Raids on Clark continue, as do Japanese landings. Not much exciting happening, however. Down at Cagayan BBs Nagato and Mutsu bombard the airfield with the B-17 groups on the ground. My understanding is that the 'airfield' here was actually a pineapple plantation - fruit salad, anyone? Most of the B-17s are damaged but all but a couple are repairable. Chances are the battleships will stick around for another go, however, so they're withdrawing. I actually meant to buy them out and move them to Rabaul for a quick stab at Truk but couldn't quite justify the PP cost yesterday - too much to do! In any case, they'll be back in a few weeks.

Guam falls to a large Japanese force. Signals suggest IJA 2nd Div forming at Truk.

44th, 45th, 46th Indian bdes are settling in at and fortifying Colombo. I'd quite like to keep it, but I'm keeping enough transport local to get the bulk of them over to the mainland if necessary.

Large landing at Manado. The Eastern Fleet is forming up, such as it is. Four squadrons - PoW and Repulse plus the D-class cruisers, Houston and de Ruyter, Java, Tromp, each with a destroyer squadron attached, attended to by the Dutch oilers. The whole lot's hanging out one hex behind the Lombok Strait waiting for...something. I'm not even sure what - if they'd gotten together a day earlier I'd have sent them up to interfere with the Manado landings, but I think it'll have fallen by the time they get there. The bulk of the Japanese surface forces are in the area and I'd rather avoid getting swarmed so far from home. Boise is waiting a few days while the 8" holes in the bridge are patched up.

A large convoy leaves San Francisco for Tahiti escorted by Saratoga, carrying a lot of engineering assets, several tankers' worth of fuel for fleet operations and enough supplies for a whole constellation of cargo cults.

Dec. 14

Miri and Manado fall; otherwise not a very action-packed day in the DEI.

8th Marine Rgt and a defense batallion depart San Francisco for Christmas Island along with an old cruiser. CA Louisville is also headed up to Christmas; there's a Japanese something hanging around to the south (AMC?) which I'm hoping to collide with; failing that it'll take the Marines in. I'm very protective of my convoys and the old battleships will probably see as much use as heavy escorts as anything else.




kfsgo -> RE: Combined Chiefs of Staff's Supercomputer's Report [no Saros] (2/2/2011 5:33:58 AM)

Dec. 15-19

Condensed, because nothing particularly interesting has happened on any particular day - lots of convoys motoring along, fighter sweeps over Singapore, Eastern Fleet still dawdling. Signals are full of a whole lot of nothing interesting. US submarines are yet to sink anything at all, and not for want of trying. Rabaul fell yesterday (18th), too - the defenders conducted a very orderly retreat into the jungle and are basically intact - never seen that before. I'm flying them out to Moresby where they'll be very welcome.

That's as far as the game's progressed up to this point, so I thought I'd write some short and long-term principles down so I don't forget about them a month from now.

- ABDA area will not be reinforced. I'm not lifting out units - what's here will hold out as long as is possible - but no troops, no ships, no aircraft are headed anywhere between Ramree Island and Darwin. We're using the latest beta patch, so destroyed units can be rebuilt; I anticipate being able to reform two or at most three Dutch batallions, which seems reasonable enough. III IndCorps is all support, so will be handy; 9th and 11th IndDivs by contrast probably won't amount to much for a long time.

- 1942 will mostly be conducted on an ad-hoc basis; I don't know exactly how conservative or otherwise the Japanese are going to be, so the details will have to wait a little longer. The exception to that is that I would like to have the Burma Road back open in 1942, which of course means holding or retaking Rangoon; as I'm not reinforcing the place now bar the Chinese 11th Army holding it is unlikely, so we'll have to see what the garrison ends up looking like. I am 'ok' with US troop commitments to the area up to and including a division or three, and a bunch of AA and artillery units are already heading to Cape Town; given enough stiffening the Chinese might even be able to acheive something useful in Burma. I don't like the Pacific in principle - all those wide open spaces give me the heebie-geebies - so absent some truly special prompting I don't expect to see huge movements beyond Line Is - Tahiti - Pago - Fiji - Auckland, at least on my part.

- 1943's plan will depend on how Burma goes. If well, I think it'd be interesting to shoot for Singapore by the end of the year, by land or possibly by sea; if it seems doable then I'll make it the main effort (I appreciate it's not the most sensible plan, but it should be interesting either way); if not, SWPA will take the wheel.




kfsgo -> Dec. 20 (2/2/2011 6:29:58 PM)

Dec. 20

The two Hawaiian regiments sail up the inside passage undetected and unmolested, ending the day one hex SE of Pearl Harbour. A small victory, but I'm not complaining.

An unpleasant day for the IJAAF; sweeps (mostly Nates) lose eight aircraft over Clark for nothing in return, along with two Sallies lost to causes unknown and one Zero destroyed on the ground at Kota Bharu. Allied losses for the day total one O-47 recon aircraft that crashed on landing. A few more days like this would do just fine. Japanese forward elements are 45 miles south of Manila.

A batallion-strength Japanese landing at Iloilo is theoretically attacked by a full PA division. Nothing happens - maybe they didn't feel like pressing the point? Will try again tomorrow.

All quiet in the air over Malaya; destroyers bombard armoured units moving south from Taiping. A half-strength Indian batallion will meet them in the mountains tomorrow or the day after; won't stop them, but will buy a day or two. A Thai infantry division captures Victoria Point. If the Japanese armour gets too far ahead of its friends I may try to give it a bloody nose at Malacca. We'll see - would have to be very quick in and out.

1st Burma div is digging in behind the Salween. The Indian Army is concentrating at Calcutta; India Command HQ is here, so I'll keep everyone concentrated for as long as Singapore stands; hopefully they'll fix disablements quicker this way.



kfsgo -> RE: Dec. 21 (2/5/2011 12:50:47 AM)

Dec. 21

The first Japanese bombing raid over Singapore went...badly. A dozen Ki-48s flew, preceded by sweeping Zeros and Oscars, and ran into a buzzsaw - Buffalos zapped all of them except one, which ate a flak shell before it could bomb anything. The next one will go better - the RAF is down to a couple of dozen aircraft in Malaya and no doubt they'll get swept up with a vengeance after today's mess. I forget what total air losses look like offhand, but it's something like 220A versus 300J. Good or bad I have no idea, but it feels 'ok'.

Land losses, on the other hand, are through the roof - 780something versus 16 right now. The 'problem' is China - in drawing off Japanese forces so the main elements can concentrate, the bait usually gets eaten, with the Japanese tending to take no losses at all in return. In game terms it's not really a problem on my end - I can't feed them all anyway, so I might as well trade them for time - but as spectator sport it's silly. Happily one of the minimal-strength corps surrendered today - a few weeks and it'll be back stronger than it started out. The Japanese are moving on Xi'an in reasonable force along the track from the east - I don't think I can stop them before they get there, but there again I'm not sure I want to - they can't get into the basin any other way at the moment, which will leave any force strong enough to take the place very precariously buried in very hostile territory; if he throws the whole force at me I'll surround it, and if he leaves anyone behind to guard a line of retreat I should be able to defeat the individual elements given the couple thousand lightly-employed AV within a couple of weeks' march away.

The Japanese Bn at Iloilo scuttled back onto its freighter. No doubt the next attempt will be more serious, but it's another day lost. Lt. Sigint claims elements of two Japanese divs will be landing at San Fernando shortly, so the Philippines will probably be 'quick'. Everyone on Luzon bar one rearguard bn has reached Clark intact, so that's 1650av to chew through. 45 days?

I've had a lot of army intelligence so far, actually - elements of 2nd Div are again reported sailing for Truk - but nothing naval. Lexington and Enterprise are a few days out of San Francisco, where they'll take on aircraft to toss at Hawaii.

Lysanders picked up 1st RTA Div moving through the jungle towards Moulmein. ETA...two weeks? 3rd RTA was just at Victoria Point, and 2nd is sigged at Pitsanuloke, which I guess is the Thais accounted for. Brit 18th Div entered the map; they're headed for Colombo for the time being.



kfsgo -> RE: Dec. 22 (2/5/2011 4:36:54 AM)

Dec. 22

Not much today. Some fighter sweeps over Singapore mean the RAF is down another eight or so Buffalos, and 1st RTA is confirmed as coming up the track. Otherwise, the silence is deafening. 1st Burma Div should be able to hold one Thai division, although it doesn't exactly have an experience or firepower edge just at the moment. I really need to make a list of what I can theoretically get into Burma in the next (1, 3, 6) months - B Sqn 3Huss are leaving Karachi today and will head for Burma, either by land or sea depending on how frisky I feel.

Also, enlargement of bases along the railway line to Imphal is ongoing - do you need to build up the whole chain for supplies to draw along it properly, or just the base that's going to be drawing supplies? I'm doing the former, on the assumption that it won't hurt.

Signals not too helpful - more on the 38th Div headed for San Fernando, 7216 men at Pitsanuloke (sure fits a Thai div), aaaaaaand, 16000 men at Hailar. War-winning information there, folks.



kfsgo -> RE: Dec. 23 (2/7/2011 8:37:38 PM)

Apparently it's been hot enough in kiwiland that Saros's computer has been feeling poorly. The game goes on, however...

Dec. 23

Another bad day to be a Japanese aviator; we've managed 33-36 kills to 6 losses today - 12 Betties, 5 Nates and 2 Sallies over Clark, plus 10 Lillies and 4 Zeros over Singapore, the balance being made up by ops losses of a few types here and there. Friendly losses were two Buffalos and one P-40B, plus a couple naval search never-returned. His Imperial Majesty is reportedly not at all pleased, which seems sensible as all that effort managed to do is knock a gun off an otherwise seaworthy destroyer at Singapore and annoy some Filipinos.

China is moving a little; a remnant corps (2av) managed to get an IMB (170av) into a swamp; they retreated after combat, meaning they're on good roads and the Japanese aren't. The balance of the southeastern forces (~1300av) are moving towards Changsha; the only thing worth holding down there is Wenzhou, and it's far enough away from any help that tying up this force trying to hold it doesn't seem sensible. A Japanese army looks likely to cross the river and attack Ichang tomorrow; I have ~1700av here and the Japanese are probably bringing along about the same. I'd scuttle away, given that it's in clear terrain, but as the Japanese abandoned it without a fight in the first place I took all their fortifications, and it seems a shame not to use them. There's also a non-zero chance I may be able to surround them for a while if they do make the leap.

In Malaya, the one ISF Bn was pushed out of the mountains by a Japanese infantry regiment and armour; they retreated in some sort of order, however, which buys at least another day. Best guess is Kuala Lumpur will fall on the 27th and Malacca - if I'm not able to give them a quick kick there - on the 30th. The only significant combat formation between Johore and Rangoon is the 8th Indian Bde, formerly of Kota Bharu and currently not at all well - 50/50 on them making it out before the Japanese get behind them. Singapore has L3 forts and a minimal garrison; JB is about halfway to L3, and most of the combat formations are here bar the one Aus Bde at Mersing. Johore is a holdup, really - I've had lots of 'X planning for Singapore' signals so I'm at least going to deny them that advantage for a few days. Also, according to the RAF there are six battleships and nine cruisers at or near Kota Bharu - I guess everything's getting escorts since Force Z (currently loitering off Koepang) vanished. All the Japanese units have been signalled for Kota Bharu, although I'm keeping the one Bde at Mersing just in case.

I have not seen a Japanese carrier for several days, and I'd really like to. From a distance, anyway.




kfsgo -> RE: Dec. 23 (2/13/2011 10:43:31 AM)

Man, after six days off I can barely remember what I was planning to do over the next week or so. Guess we'll see how that works out.

Dec. 24

Total air trade for the day is 8A for 11J. Tomorrow will probably be unpleasant, however, becauuuuse:

Face, meet egg - minesweeping at Mersing, sigint puts a CL (amphibious force flagship?) headed there and if sighting reports and radio transmissions are to believed there are thirteen Japanese battleships plus a bunch of indeterminate forces between a point 350mi NE of Mersing and Kota Bharu. This in addition to three more BBs at Manado. I quite intentionally haven't dug too deep into what the Japanese get, but I'm preeeetty sure they don't get that much heavy metal - wonder which end will be wrong. Anyway, I guess it's on after all - first landings will probably take place tomorrow. Japanese forces also entered Kuantan today; presumably they'll attack tomorrow, too. Given that, I have a one-day window where air attacks on the landing force will be opposed relatively less heavily; Torpforce (as-yet uncommitted, so a full 32 biplanes) is currently at Batavia, so they'll shift up overnight and say hello in the morning. Also joining the party are the serviceable parts of VP-101 and VP-102, 1 and 8 Sqns RAAF and some MLD Dorniers for force stiffening; if everyone flies and survives there should be about 50-60 torpedoes floating around tomorrow, of which at least a few should connect. It's a trap, but it's also an opportunity, so to speak - fundamentally with the force movements I've put in place the ABDA area will collapse sooner rather than later, so it matters little whether I burn stuff up over Malaya or Java.

To be brutally honest, I don't see the point of landing at Mersing now - it won't buy more than a couple of days, and while it's not too likely there's always the outside possibility that a Vildebeest might bag a battleship. There again, I'm the cautious one, so I could be underthinking it.

Everywhere else but China is quiet; here the Japanese should enter Ichang tomorrow, though to what effect remains to be seen.



kfsgo -> RE: Dec. 25 (2/13/2011 9:33:02 PM)

Dec. 25

Japanese troops enter Manila. And Clark, but there's a few soldiers there. Maybe another month?

No go on the torpedoes, naturally. The only ones to fly were the Dorniers and Catalinas, plus a couple of Hudsons - no hits, but losses weren't too heavy. There are at least four battleships loitering off Mersing, along with two light carriers at Kuantan, which has fallen. I'm going to shoot for some night attacks - with Kuantan in Japanese hands I don't expect fighter cover to be penetrable for the biplanes, and they have some value as a deterrent - the scale of today's operation shows that, I think. Signals have Imperial Guards Div and a base force sailing direction Mersing; I thought landings would be today, but the forces were all there for a fight.

One small victory - CM Kung Wo was ordered one hex NE of Mersing to lay a minefield a couple of days ago; it's now a reef, but the minefield got laid, and in theory should be lying undetected right in the path of the Japanese landing force. Kongo is reported to have hit a mine at Mersing, too.

With Imperial Gds messing about in boats I'm again dithering over whether to go all-out in Burma. I don't suppose there's really any way it can end well this early, but it's certainly tempting. Not changing course today, anyway.

Again quiet everywhere but China; the (~950av, it turns out) Japanese force crossed the river into Ichang and ran into a (1800av) Chinese buzzsaw - sure it's clear terrain, but the forces there are prepped for the place and they're sitting in the ex-Japanese forts, so the assault fizzled out, took 300 combat squad disablements and didn't even touch the fortifications. They're now attempting to escape, so we'll take a pop at them tomorrow...which should go well, since it's clear terrain. Funny how that works. Likewise for one solo Japanese Div facing another 1800av NE of Changsha - terrain there is wooded, though, so the odds might not be so great.



scott64 -> RE: Dec. 25 (2/14/2011 12:06:13 AM)

Sink the Boise [:D][:'(]



kfsgo -> RE: Dec. 26 (2/14/2011 1:06:09 PM)

Dec. 26

Boise will have to wait a little - it's tooting around with Repulse, not particularly badly off after its shoving match with four Japanese cruisers at night. Night air torpedo strikes didn't hit anything, but Ryujo had a close encounter (well, three, actaully) of the long, silvery kind with SS K-13 last night and is now resting serenely on the seabed between Kuantan and Mersing, along with all 48 of its aircraft. Much like the landing itself I don't see what it was supposed to achieve - the landings could have been covered just fine from Kuantan, which is about where the light carriers were anyway. Oh well - one down, several to go.

22,000 Japanese make it ashore at Mersing in one day - all very well planned, executed etc but a little let down by the fact that they'd have been here just as quick if they'd taken the train.

Japanese cruisers are displaying around Celebes - as far as I'm aware there are no fighters at Manado, so the Dutch will take a stab at them if they overstretch.

A nice day in China - forces at Ichang push their "attackers" back with about 2/3 of a division's worth of troops destroyed outright; Japanese 39th Div also gets retreated NE of Changsha, though casualties here are less heavy. Things are moving rather quickly around Xi'an and it doesn't look like I am going to be able to prevent the entry of the eastern force into the basin; as long as the other entrances hold - and they should, in theory, their troop complements having run off in good order - I'm optimistic about being able to give them a bloody nose as per Ichang. Gonna be more tense than I'd hoped, however, and if anything goes horribly wrong I am going to have Problems.

Mr. Signals says the Japanese 29th/B Div is planning for Auckland. I do know that's one of the Kwantung Army units, so I doubt there's actually anything to it. £5 says each of the fragments is preparing for a different location! More troop movements to Truk - today it's the 81st Naval Gd - are probably more of an immediate threat. There is a gap of about 60 days where I can't really do much in the South Pacific - most of the 5th AF squadrons are moving to Australia via Cape Town to lighten the shipping load and it'll take them about that long to get anywhere useful.



kfsgo -> RE: Dec. 27 (2/15/2011 4:11:05 AM)

Dec. 27

Mersing falls; the Aus Bde retreated into Johore Bahru, which is fine - lots of disablements but relatively few permanent losses. I will probably fly them out of Malaya as they won't likely recover them in time to be of much use locally. A Recon Rgt scuttled along in hot pursuit...and is now all alone in JB facing III Corps. Oops. The rail line west of Mersing will be cut tomorrow or the day after, but there's nothing to cut off except what's left of 8th Indian Bde, and that doesn't amount to much.

18th Div unloads at Colombo, where they're going to be staying for a while.

China is having a 'movement' day - not much combat. AV total for Xi'an itself on D-day should be about 2500; as long as I can fight each of the Japanese forces separately I should be fine. Some units from Ichang will move out to reinforce once they're out of Japanese vis contact, but it'll take a while for them to get anywhere.

Three SNLF units make landfall at Kendari, which will fall tomorrow; the sum total of 50 bombers' worth of attacks is one bomb on CA Aoba - negligible - and one bomb into CA Myoko - maybe meaningful, maybe not.



kfsgo -> RE: Dec. 29 (2/16/2011 6:27:29 AM)

Dec. 29

I can't keep my days straight. Nothing much happened yesterday, anyway. Unless yesterday was the 27th.

The full Japanese Luzon force (or what I assume is the full Japanese force) is now concentrated at Clark; a hair under 3000av face 1600 or so on the defense. IJA 4th, 33rd, 53rd, 38th Divs, about the equivalent of another two in smaller units and about half an armoured division's worth of tanks +- a bit. Unlikely this'll take too long - of course the real question is what they do after they're finished here.

Malacca falls to a Japanese parachute landing - two days ahead of 'schedule', but Kuala Lumpur still hasn't fallen, so the railway should be open about when expected. At least the paras aren't doing anything useful. I'd give Singapore until about the 15th of January; not great, but everything including the kitchen sink is on the offensive.

Japanese land at Ternate; there's no garrison to speak of so any sort of landing is a foregone conclusion, but the MLD did manage to turn three loaded troopships into mush over the last couple of days, so things could be worse here.

Landings at Port Moresby look likely for tomorrow; the advantage of knowing what the garrisons everywhere are, I guess. Coastwatchers picked up the ships near Rabaul a couple of days ago and I thought this might be where they were headed, but the most I could have thrown at them in time to do anything about it is CL Adelaide and some minesweepers. Presumably this is the 2nd Div; two weeks from detection of movement to landing ain't a bad turnaround if so.




kfsgo -> RE: Dec. 30 (2/16/2011 10:25:30 AM)

Dec. 30

PM wasn't invaded - I guess the landing force ended up a hex short so they're just sitting offshore. Tomorrow, presumably.

I-22 attempted to punt a midget submarine into Sydney; it jammed in the antisub net and the mothership got chased off by a pair of minesweepers.

Elsewhere, nothing. The Thai division hasn't even crossed the border into Burma yet - tempted again to send the Colombo garrison into Burma given the total lack of any Japanese aircraft in the area over the past three weeks. A steady stream of freighters have been running supply into Rangoon; none of them have even reported Japanese aircraft overhead. I suppose on reflection that I should have done it in the first place; Colombo is only life-and-death critical insofar as I hold Rangoon, and if I don't I'm not likely to have the ability or (more critically) motivation to run any ops in the Indian Ocean anyway. I do have the shipping to get everyone in fairly quick, and I have enough fighters to cover the movement, so the option remains open...guess I'll think about it a little more when I get the next turn.




kfsgo -> RE: Dec. 31 (2/16/2011 5:02:17 PM)

Dec. 31

Three turns in a day definitely makes up for for holiday time, eh?

Flak over Johore - not even Singapore proper - claims a dozen Japanese bombers today. Over a hundred of them flew, and as far as I can tell hit not a thing.

Landings at Port Moresby take place as expected. Instead of the expected IJA 2nd Div, however, the landing force is a bizzarre mix of small SNLF, Naval Gd etc units - I say small units but put together there's about 450av's worth of them - how many of the bloody things are there?

Anyway, once PM falls - and it won't take too long - they'll presumably fan out, using the loading bonus to jump from island to island every couple of days; at least, that's what I'd be doing. Between this and Clarkforce there can't be much of any significance left behind the lines.

I'm rather conscious of the possibility of NE Australia being invaded; I'd like to avoid it for no other reason than that I couldn't justify retaining 7th-9th Divs in Burma if it were to happen, and I'd really rather like to. I'm working on the (baseless) assumption that Townsville would be the first target for any landing, so the place will be sporting a nice 16-gun coast artillery battery and what passes for an army corps in a few days. More than that I can't really do until all the shipping winds its way across the Pacific. I'm working on the assumption that Darwin is an inherently lost cause, so ABDA reinforcement policy applies unless I can get the ground supply line reasonable before any Japanese arrive.

I've decided to go ahead and introduce the Ceylon troops to Burma, given the continued absence of any Japanese anything from the approaches to Rangoon; they're loading up for shipping, and I think I can get everyone in within about 10 days, from where they'll proceed northwards to start getting the infrastructure into shape. To balance things out at least a little the Dutch NS Rgt and Marine Bn are shifting to Ceylon and two Canadian brigades will be arriving at some point in the next couple of months.

China...oh boy. The force moving on Xi'an from the east totals 1100av; the couple of hundred facing them in the mountains are feigning distress and withdrawing westwards in an attempt to get them down onto the plains. I currently have 1850 at Xi'an, with more on the way. If they take the bait, I can cut them off from supply - there are a bunch of 'guerillas' hopefully unnoticed about 90 miles behind them - and trickle enough small units into neighbouring hexes over the course of a couple of weeks to prevent them reopening it. If I can pull this off...yipe. If I can't...well, yipe too, just the other way.



kfsgo -> January Looms (2/17/2011 6:36:48 AM)

Jan. 1

Japan sends a nice new year's gift - unescorted Nells from Manado run into a Dutch fighter squadron at Makassar, losing a dozen aircraft.

No attacks at Port Moresby. Tomorrow?

The Japanese don't take the bait at Xi'an, instead heading southeast into roadless mountains. Unfortunate, but not the end of the world - if nothing else it delivers time, which is valuable right now.



kfsgo -> RE: January Looms (2/18/2011 7:31:10 AM)

Jan. 3

PM has held out for a couple of days, but will fall tomorrow. C'est la vie - I don't have the ability to put 450av anywhere right now, and won't for a while, so grimacing and bearing it is the order of the day. I'm good at that, at least.

All quiet in Malaya - there's been no movement into Johore so far. Wonder what the holdup is.

Irritatingly, some Betties show up over Rangoon the day after sailing orders are issued. They're just searching rather than sinking, but the transports will disgorge at Chittagong instead. Adds a couple of weeks that I'd have liked to have, but on the other hand I'd like to not not have a brigade or three.

Nanchang in southern China will hopefully - no promises, but hopefully - fall tomorrow too. This is the southeastern army - about 1500av of mixed stuff. Enough Japanese to stop the assault are one hex to the west, but they're going to get another 1500av - along with most of the Chinese independent artillery - dropped on top of them. This could be a major coup or a debacle depending on how the hexside control and movement shakes out.

Mass assaults at Clark inflict about equal casualties - not sustainable, since I have a force half the size. Today's included a parachute assault, or at least I think it did given the number of Japanese transport aircraft hit by AA fire - I understand incorporating the paras reduces the defending AV by some disproportionate number, so that won't have helped.

Japanese light carriers are moving back from Malaya to Manado, and cruisers are probing the Makassar strait - presume the next leap can't be more than a few days off. Unfortunately there are finally fighters at Manado, so further unescorted raids - the last one a couple of days ago almost certainly accounted for a destroyer tender and damaged a couple other auxiliaries - are not on the table.



kfsgo -> RE: January Looms (2/18/2011 4:45:39 PM)

Jan. 5

Port Moresby falls. Life goes on; forces available in Australia are up to repelling any landings for the moment.

Numerous heavy radio transmission reports in, on and around Truk - something big enough to register as heavy is moving out into the blue southeast of the place, on a course such that next landfalls are about Nauru and Fiji. Even money says this is Nagumo's little shop of horrors out to cause some trouble; I think everything else is in the DEI. Paras did capture Tulagi yesterday; at this rate they'll be hitting Auckland within a month. Anyway, I should know for certain tomorrow; with the fall of PM I sent one of the Catalina squadrons out to Ocean Island, though I didn't think it'd be right on the spot this quick.

Rangoon raiders were Nells, it turns out - a dozen or so ignored several freighters unloading and instead attacked the river patrol motor launches, hitting one with a torpedo. Wouldn't have thought something that size would even trigger a torpedo, but definitely an accomplishment of a sort.

Nanchang turned into a debacle for the Japanese - the western force - turned out to be one IMB rather than two divisions, which shows you how good my sources are - crossed the river into the place as I was attacking; the resulting shock attack fell completely flat (0 adjusted AV) and the brigade was totally demolished. Chinese attacks took the forts from 4 to 0 yesterday and captured the place today, savaging another IMB and some Quislings in the process. Japanese land loss points about doubled overnight, so a good result.

Light carriers are off Ambon. Eastern Fleet is moving off Timor and may or may not try an intercept depending on where everyone ends up tomorrow; trouble is the Dutch really don't have the range for high-speed running, and their oilers are just in transit from Java with another fuel load. I expect some heavy escort - can't be sure what, exactly, as the Dutch search pilots are so bad they think there are nine escort carriers in the mix. I don't like it, but if it comes down to trading battleships for carriers...well, we know how history's going to judge us, right?



kfsgo -> RE: January Looms (2/20/2011 6:50:40 AM)

Jan. 7

Well, Ocean Island flight spotted a three-ship convoy including what is allegedly a minelayer. Guess they're planning on hitting Nauru or something. Will keep looking just in case; Truk is still letting off enough radio transmissions to blow out the receivers at Pearl. Happily ten US subs just finished their transit to the area; six S-boats are headed to Fiji - there's just enough fuel there to get them all spun up - and four newer ones are playing tripwire east of the Solomons. 61st Naval Gd is reported heading for Rabaul; I don't think I've seen that one yet, which makes it somewhere around 500av in naval troops in the area.

Saratoga and the South Pacific engineers are approaching Tahiti; S will await Lex, YT and Enterprise plus cruisers which have detached from another troop convoy and are heading down as well; Canberra, Perth and Pensacola are also here and will join in the fun, as will the squadron currently covering unloading at Christmas Island. There's enough fuel on the way to Tahiti to keep everyone moving, so it'll be the operating base for a while. I am on the fence about early carrier battles; the head says no, but Saros has been pushing just a little beyond his ability to cover stuff safely and really only getting away with it because I'm cautious and tend to concentrate forces. We'll see how things shape up down here, anyway.

Japanese troops are starting to form up in northern Johor; once they get rid of the 8th Bde remnants (which are still sitting on the railway line from Kota to Malacca) there'll be nothing else for them to do in Malaya but take down Singapore.

Japanese light carriers put in an appearance off Darwin, sinking two small freighters and a Dutch gunboat. All the shipping moved out weeks ago; whether it holds or not I have no plans for Darwin as a fleet base any time soon, and I moved in enough supplies to meet the current garrison's needs for a while. I attempted to catch them with Eastern Fleet but ended up short - Wales and Repulse both caught a couple of 500lb bombs from Kates, 17 of which pushed past the Dutch fighters trying to play CAP. Total damage amounted to two torpedo tubes blown off Repulse and PoW's surface search radar; flak claims to have bagged six of them.

I imagine that in real life this, coupled with the relatively light damage inflicted at Pearl, would get some twit worked up on the survivability of battleships in front of carrier aircraft; in fairness I probably could catch them, but not without one more round of airstrikes. That'd be ok - I don't think there are more than a dozen or so Kates in that force after losses today and yesterday - but the Dutch are very low on fuel so the high-speed running is out of the question for them, and they're mounting a fairly significant proportion of the LAA in this little squadron.

Ambon was bombarded today; there's what looks like an invasion fleet sitting offshore, and disruption on the coast artillery is high enough that they won't have much issue getting ashore. One more domino...

Japanese shock attack again at Clark yesterday, along with another paradrop - guess we're going to be having them every attack. This one did less well - bombing has shifted from airfields to the troops themselves recently, meaning (rather paradoxically, I think) that fortification has resumed. We're back up to L. 2, and remain so after the attack, which cost the Japanese 130/210 combat/noncom destroyed and more disabled. The tank batallions were committed to this one after being held back so far - no doubt that helped.



kfsgo -> RE: January Looms (2/20/2011 2:25:37 PM)

Jan. 9

Nauru was it - as was Ocean, actually; the same fragment of an SNLF took them both, Nauru yesterday and Ocean today. I actually didn't think the Japanese could move quite that fast on amph ops, so the Catalinas were still at Ocean and got blown up. Irritating, since they'd just have flown off - or rather not landed, being as they were all in the air - but that's life for you. What they did see in their brief time there was interesting - specifically, eight cruisers and what may or may not be a carrier east of Tulagi, heading southeast at high speed. Probably not a carrier, I guess - there'd have been CAP up, presumably - but a reported 'CS' makes me wonder.

Some small Japanese unit also landed at Luganville today; from here it'll be either Noumea or Fiji next...the only question is which happens first. I want to say Noumea, since it's trivial - just land up north and meander down the road - but there's been a Glen buzzing over Nadi taking photos every day for the last week. I thought that was kinda insignificant - can't stop the bloody things, after all - but it's more evidence than I've got for New Cal, and Nauru and Ocean going down as a matter of urgency but the Gilberts being ignored seems to fit.

So, that leaves me taking stock of major useful units in the South Pacific:

- 1st Aus Div at Sydney
- 2nd, 3rd, 4th Aus Divisions at Townsville
- 5th Aus Div at Brisbane
- 8th NZ Bde at Suva
- 40th Infantry Div part unloading at Auckland (off Queen Eliz.) and part mid-ocean en route Auckland
- 27th, 41st Infantry Divs mid-ocean en route Auckland then probably Melbourne
- 1st Marine Div minus one Rgt at Christmas Island, then Tahiti and points west t.b.d. once a more appropriate garrison can be found for the place.
- Combined Pacific Fleet forming up at Tahiti

pretend the 40th and 41st are the same thing I can't remember which is where

The Americal (daft bloody name) Div is (or will be - only one regiment's in so far) headed for Burma along with the 87th Mountain Rgt (poor buggers - they're in for a shock!), which force's artillery is a few weeks out of Cape Town. They may or may not be joined by another Div depending on how things shake out over the next few months, but probably they will.

The issue with moving unrestricted HQs around is a difficult one; the way I've decided to approach it is that I'll use them to move LCUs as far as staging areas - the three US Divs are I Amph Corps, for example - but any movement onwards from there will require a move to a 'proper' HQ. So, practically speaking, they can go to Hawaii, Tahiti, Australia or New Zealand, but nowhere else. I don't think that's unreasonable - particularly given the scale of Japanese moves in the South Pacific, which would have the Govts screaming bloody murder by now.

Anyway, New Cal or Fiji. Realistically one brigade can't hold Fiji; there's at least 400 'floating' AV in SNLF units in the South Pacific, maybe plus the 2nd Div which was forming up at Truk all those weeks ago and hasn't been seen since. Two might manage it against the SNLFs, but not anything heavier; they'd be stuck there at risk of having a ton of bricks dropped on them if I sent one, and in any case I don't have one to send. So, 8th NZ is heading home, mostly by air. Bad decision? Well, probably, but there ain't so many Kiwis that I can toss several thousand of them away. Shame I sent Lexington and Enterprise east instead of south back in December, I suppose...

Ambon will fall within the next couple of days; the Japanese land just enough force to take it, as per previous efforts.

A dozen Betties attack the HDML flotilla at Singapore, sinking three of four with torpedoes. For reference, this is an HDML:

[image]http://cdn.wn.com/pd/5a/45/26495621075fd1662ca24b8f78b8_grande.jpg[/image]

Never mind how easy it'd be to dodge a torpedo in something that small - would the detonators even work on a tiny, shallow wooden launch? Another dozen attack a Dutch AMc off Java, but since they're using bombs nothing comes of it.

Rangoon bombed heavily, with significant airfield damage. Not going to shed too many tears; total occupants are one half-strength fighter squadron and half a dozen Lysanders, so if the Japanese want to have to fix the thing then so be it. Port damage by contrast would be devastating at this stage - a lot of supply has made it into Burma and a lot more is on the way, contingent on the air threat not getting obstructive, and that's supply that's going to be critical over the next couple of months as whatever I send into Upper Burma hangs on by the skin of its teeth. 18th Div and the composite Indian Div are just about ashore at Chittagong; they'll spend about a week getting some minor engineering work done on their supply line then head hillwards.



kfsgo -> RE: January Looms (2/21/2011 7:16:22 AM)

Visual Guide to China, Jan. 9 (since there's no turn for me this morning):

[image]http://i52.tinypic.com/im4f8x.gif[/image]

Basically everything's 'ok'. The 1100av Japanese unit up north has been dumped in the middle of nowhere without support - after the mess at Nanchang all Japanese river crossings have been cancelled, apparently - so I'm going to try and hold it with a minimal force and then push enough past it to keep the encirclement up against anything trying to relieve it. Not going to attack, just starve'em out. The roads to Xi'an are I think sufficiently strongly held to keep the Japanese back a while...and if they're not, I have plenty of stuff in reserve.

Not shown are the 11th Army (blossoming in Burma; up to about 350av from an initial 100) and forces at Kukong (800av or so)



kfsgo -> RE: January Looms (2/23/2011 12:29:39 PM)

Saros lives in - you guessed it - Christchurch! So a couple of busy days for him.

Jan. 10

Today was a very good day. Tomorrow may not be so good, but I'm enjoying the warm glow while it lasts.

- 50 Betties bombed Batavia from I think Singkawang. They would theoretically have been escorted by whatever fighters are there - I know there are a few, though I've never actually seen any in the air - but their pilots apparently had a night on the town and couldn't be bothered. End result is 29 Betties shot down in exchange for a minelayer and one of those rinkydink 6kt AGs. I decided a few days ago to give the RAAF/RNZAF most of the Buffalo pool as replacements on Java as trade for withdrawing the Dutch land forces from northern Sumatra - I think it worked out ok! It'd have gone even better, but a couple of the squadrons (28F) were training and one (12F) was just activated today - I like to think as a response - so didn't participate.

- Another parachute assault on Clark, meaning another shock attack; this one was really ugly as forts had made it all the way up to 3, result being that the Japanese took about 3.5:1 in disablements while not touching the forts. Every day is precious here given the large commitment, so I complain not one jot.

- Nagumo showed up! A small convoy unloading an independent company at Norfolk Island was buzzed by several seaplanes and then reported a bunch of large Jap carriers with several hundred aircraft among them 45mi to the NW. Very fortunate - Norfolk isn't an active search base yet, and the carriers are out in the middle of nowhere miles away from the nearest search zone. Three cruisers and a couple dozen merchants would at the least have been at risk this time tomorrow, being as they are at sea between Australia and NZ; as is damage from what I assume is going to be a raid on Sydney might not be too horrific. Most of the merchants at Sydney are scattering; a few will stay to keep up appearances.

This does raise the question of how they got here; presumably their aircraft have been stood down for a few days while they raced down the Solomons. Forunately or otherwise the Pacific Fleet is still forming up at Tahiti, so I have no real means of interfering with whatever they're about to do. Mein opponente don't know that, however, so I'm guessing their being down here means incoming bad news for somewhere local, ie either New Cal or Fiji. One of the subs between Tulagi and New Cal was buzzed by aircraft yesterday; might be meaningful, might just be noise.

- Eastern Fleet is "withdrawing" from the Java area because - you'll laugh - there isn't enough fuel to keep them moving. Well - there is, sort of, but not enough to keep them moving and allow exports to Perth to continue, for which purpose about a dozen tankers arrived in Java yesterday. The approaches to Batavia and Surabaya are also crawling with submarines, and I'm less than happy about running that gauntlet at this point. So, they'll wait offshore a little while tankers shuttle in and out of Tjilatjap. The Japanese battlefleet is loitering off Kendari, the virtual equivalent of a guy outside a bar yelling "COME ON THEN" to noone in particular.

- Moulmein is occupied by a Thai division. Burcorps is dug in across the river, so the Japanese will have to bring up something a little more substantial to get any further. Four more HDMLs were torpedoed by Nells today; I have no idea if any were ever actually torpedoed in real life, but on the face of it it seems unlikely.



kfsgo -> RE: January Looms (2/25/2011 9:52:40 AM)

Jan. 11

- Most shipping in Sydney is halfway to Tasmania by now. The attackers apparently paused off Norfolk Island to redistribute fuel, so apart from the inevitable couple of losses from submarines damage might not be too heavy. Expect the airstrikes will take place tomorrow if they take place at all. Amusingly the Norfolk Island convoy itself, despite being under KB's guns for two days, hasn't been attacked; they're headed for Suva to pick up the NZ Bde's artillery. However:

- Ten ships have been detected a couple of hundred miles northwest of New Caledonia, in the middle of the Coral Sea, heading southeast - in other words, directly for Koumac. What by I don't know - they're again out of anyone's search radius - but there they are. Speed is reported at 10kts, composition sketchy but minelayers, cruisers, battleships all make the report. If it's not an invasion convoy heading for NC I'll eat my hat.

- Simultaneously, 13 ships have been detected off Pentecost Island - that's between Luganville and Efate, which was captured today - heading southeast at 13kts. I'd offer to eat my hat if this were not a Fiji invasion, but I only have the one. It's bright pink with little plastic rhinestones, by the way.

So, apparently deciding among the two would have been a bit of a waste of time. C'est la vie. A first supply ship is approaching Pago Pago with 5000t of 'stuff', which should be put to good use there; at this point the question becomes how far the Japs want to push their amphibious bonus, because heaven knows I can't stop them taking anywhere they want badly enough. Most of the engineering and base force goons are off ship at Tahiti at this point - there's enough naval support there that the tiny port doesn't matter too much - with enough combat units to make it a reasonably solid position about a week away. I got my Marine subcomponents mixed up in the move to Christmas Island, so some Marines will probably wander down to join them soonish.

Anyway, although this is a major commitment to the area by the Japanese Australia and New Zee are basically safe - if he gets it into his head to invade NZ at this point I will pretty much jump for joy, heh - and while it's a fairly significant disruption to shipping across the Pacific most of the stuff destined for the area is headed for Cape Town anyway. Several dozen large freighters and tankers are headed for the Eastern US and UK to pick up supplies for CT above and beyond what comes in on the convoys, which should about double the daily inflow off stuff at CT.

Not much happening elsewhere today; the one almost totally disabled Aus Bde has been flown out from Malaya to Sumatra and will board ships for Perth in a couple of days; I don't rate their chances of being combat-ready in time for action too highly.



kfsgo -> RE: January Looms (2/25/2011 2:37:22 PM)

Jan. 12

Sydney is raided on schedule - losses aren't heavy, most of the shipping having departed. The only real irritant is more risible torpedo hits, today's targets being half a dozen minesweeping trawlers on harbor patrols at Sydney and Melbourne. I moved a dozen Dutch AMcs to Australia from Java, so the minesweeping capacity can be brought back up quick, but they're not armed with anything heavier than machine guns which makes them less than ideal as a submarine deterrent.

Koumac convoy should hit tomorrow or the day after; Fiji-1 convoy wasn't detected today but another, separate formation - ID unknown, but it's big enough to be leaving a mark over the radio - has been picked up a few hundred miles northwest of Fiji, so landings here will probably take place in 3-4 days. Do wish I'd set the carriers off a little earlier - they're a day out from Tahiti and will probably miss the window for risk-free intervention by a couple of days. Tahiti does at least now have its own cover, one P-40 squadron and 11 PT boats having landed today.

Elsewhere, calm prevails.



kfsgo -> RE: January Looms (2/26/2011 3:24:37 PM)

Jan. 13/14

The carriers hung around Sydney - no strikes yesterday, but some more today finished off a couple of small freighters (whatever), blew up a couple of Wirraways (whatever) and burnt 10% of the city to the ground (uh...). 320 strategic loss points in one day strikes me as a pretty game-ending rate if it reoccurs; we'll have to see. They appear to be moving off now, however, probably to cover the Fiji op based on their course. The advantage of knowing what you can get away with, I guess. Oddly, still no landings at Koumac; not sure what the holdup is, and the place was zoomed by 13 fighters (from Hosho, I think) yesterday.

Unusual amount of submarine attacks today; 10 or so by Allied subs hit nothing, while I-23 sinks a large Navy freighter with one torpedo off San Diego. I must have used up all my sub karma on Ryujo, because US submarines have sunk I think two ships over the last five weeks; one unescorted AKL off Sakhalin, and...something else that I can't remember offhand. Dutch subs have done slightly better, with about half a dozen merchant sinkings, but still nothing to write home about. S-boats will attempt to interfere with the Fiji landings and KB, but I'm not holding my breath.

Makassar invaded today; 180av of attackers should clear up in a day or two.

9th Ind Div hung around on the wrong side of the Johore Strait, being forced across the causeway with 1500 casualties. I'm pretty pissed off about this insofar as I have no idea why it only managed to make 15 miles in the time it took the rest of III Corps to do 46 - all units involved were in combat mode throughout, and everyone else crossed over yesterday. They did at least manage to inflict twice that amount in return, though mostly in non-combat disablements. Singapore holds about 900av in L3 forts to 1300 Japanese, and they're apparently making the crossing immediately; I give'em two weeks, at best.

Burma...5000 men, Japanese or Thai, are attempting to make a cross-country dash from Chiang Mai to Pegu; I hope they succeed, maybe, in that Chiang Mai now seems to be deserted and a Burmese Bn is a few days' march away. 5000, if they make it that far, can be contained with the couple of Chinese Bdes available, I think.



kfsgo -> RE: January Looms (2/28/2011 1:47:01 PM)

Jan. 15-20

We had a busy day yesterday - five turns in one day! Never let it be said that there can't be a silver lining to an earthquake, huh?

- To noone's particular surprise, IJA 2nd Div got ashore at Nadi with minimal fuss on the 17th:

quote:

1st Sasebo SNLF Coy
81st Naval Guard Unit
Maizuru 1st SNLF
Sasebo 2nd SNLF
2nd Division
Maizuru 2nd SNLF
Maizuru 2nd SNLF /1
2nd JNAF AF Unit /1
5th Naval Const Bn /1
36th JNAF AF Unit /2


About 800av in total. I think I made the right decision in pulling out - 8th Bde alone wouldn't have held that swarm back for long, and the fraction of US 40th Div that might have made it ashore would have been pretty much isolated, supply-wise. Suva fell today, the 20th; I guess somehow I didn't notice (?!?) the Japanese units there so they took a few aircraft with them. Irritating again. Anyway, 8th Bde has reformed as a single unit back in New Zealand; they're missing 1Bn of infantry squads and their artillery complement, so nothing too serious from that point of view.

New Caledonia was also invaded - not at Koumac as expected but actually directly at Noumea, without any bombardment etc support. This did at least allow the coast artillery to whack a few Japanese transports, though the base still fell on D-day+1 due to the weight of numbers involved.

There are currently about 50-60 Japanese ships at or within a few miles of Fiji; the carriers have dropped off the map except for what I assume is Hosho, whose Kates missed a sub yesterday.

So, Japanese objectives in the South Pacific have I think been met - the question now is whether the next step is to backfill, the vast majority of undeveloped bases between Fiji and New Guinea having been completely ignored; or to keep going and hope for the best. Or, I suppose, do both; I keep wondering why one small unit hasn't been going from base to base with one ship and just tidying up. Signals put an SNLF en route to Vaitupu in the Ellices, no doubt for use as a seaplane base.

Anyway, that more or less concludes a brutally hindsight-fuelled campaign; to illustrate how much actual territory the Japanese have skipped entirely, here's the strat map from today:

[img]http://i56.tinypic.com/2jdnshu.png[/img]

Other news:

- A Marine Defense Bn has used all the fuss over Fiji to get ashore at Canton Island, along with supplies for several months. Another, along with construction units, is headed for Penrhyn Atoll (or maybe Starbuck Island, now that I think about it); anyway, having one of the two is fairly critical from Tahiti's perspective as it's close enough to Bora Bora and Christmas Island that fighters can just zip themselves in and out.

- Two infantry Rgts, and a complete coast defense force will make Tahiti tomorrow or perhaps the day after. We're already up to a Lv. 3 airfield here, and work has now switched to the port facilities. Once they're done, engineers will hop over to the next island and repeat the process.

- US 41st ID and an awful lot of supporting units are loading up at San Francisco for points unknown; Australia, eventually, I think, perhaps with a brief holiday in the South Pacific first.

- US 27th ID and 40th ID's heavy equipment will reach Wellington in about 10 days, where they'll remain until I put together enough PPs to move them out of NZ, unless something Serious happens in Australia.

- Japanese forces crossed into Singapore today; lots of casualties and they didn't touch L.3 forts, but with the 9th Div bug total force is 1664 to 954; can't see the place holding much past the end of the month. Notably Imperial Guards Div isn't involved, which effectively confirms them as the Japanese unit en-route to Burma - or at least it would, if the radio hadn't done that already.

- The Thai force moving west into Burma from Chiang Mai was revealed to be two divisions' worth; air recon underestimated their numbers fairly brutally and there's actually 16,000 of the buggers. At least four of the seven? Thai Divs are in Burma, which is a little confusing to me as we're supposedly buying out any land units to cross borders, and the Thais are perma-[R]. Hopefully some clarification will be forthcoming before they cut off Burma Corps rather than after.

- The Japanese drive on Xi'an has restarted, the northern force having extricated itself and escaped across country southwards. I'm wary of trusting air recon after the mess in Burma, so solid force estimates will have to wait until contact.



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