RE: August Alert (Full Version)

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derp -> RE: August Alert (3/14/2012 12:44:48 AM)

August. 27

...nothing. I mean, at all - just recon flights. Mitchell over Nagasaki IDs about 20 ships, a few floatplanes or airliners. Will go over Manila tomorrow, weather permitting. Factories at Nagasaki estimated 10 L3Y2, 20 Tojo IIa per month; I am still yet to see a single example of the latter in combat. Surely can't have been accelerated; I was expecting to be drowning in them at the beginning of August, but instead they've not even started to show up as operational losses. Well, if they're September's child we should find out soon enough...the question, I suppose, becomes - what am I going to be getting thrown at me early instead?

Signals so-so. 1st Tank Div reconfirmed for Cox's Bazaar, two construction regiments placed at Shikuka on Sakhalin - this is already the largest port between Tokyo and Prince Rupert, and is apparently set for further growth. Nothing to think about in the Arctic, then. Mostly, though, just confirmations of stuff we already know.

RAF Hudson sqn pulling out of Changsha; they're tired out and need a week off. I have a USN Catalina squadron in India that will replace them. The only particularly interesting land event today's in China, with more movements up in Outer Mongolia:

[img]http://i.imgur.com/K4Hs4.png[/img]

At Paotow we have two Chinese divisions facing two Japanese and one Mongolian cavalry 'division'; I could take Paotow fairly easily and could have at any point for at least the last three months or so, but by leaving it in enemy hands I'm forcing the Chinese there to do their own supply work - and as such they're fully supplied. Your guess is as good as mine as to where they're getting it from - I can only assume they have some sort of horse-breeding thing going on up there. Now, the problem with that is that the Japanese control all but one hexside - the one onto the dirt road which snakes back towards Ningxia and Lanzhou. So - they may be maneuvered into retiring into the countryside. Not too worried either way - if they do get cut off and destroyed they'll be back stronger than they are now, and if they have to bug out and let the Japanese hare off into the Gobi that's hardly a problem - I can just shoot'em up in the desert. Unless it's a huge force...but if it is a huge force that opens up Options elsewhere in China. Not completely toothless here yet...just cautious about breaking open stockpiles.

Reason I add that caveat is that troops numbers at Wuhan have dropped by 65000 versus yesterday - I think that's about 4-5 divisions' worth. Where they're off to I know not, beyond 'northeast' - some of them obviously haven't left yet and are still pointing. Have sent USAAF PRS to investigate...bugger all for them to do in Burma anyway. Main roads into Xi'an are pretty sturdy, wilderness route still a risk. Whether the Japanese understand that...



derp -> RE: August Alert (3/15/2012 1:21:59 AM)

August. 28

Another quiet day; only air activity usual horde of Japanese bombers operating against Chinese. Overcast over Manila; recon flight IDs a few ships, but nothing more than that. Will return tomorrow. Signals dull; more confirmations of stuff we already know. A number of ships will reach the Aleutians tomorrow; three engineer regiments, 65000t of supply, 55000t of fuel...Umnak is now garrisoned properly, so construction there can resume. The two Japanese submarines watching Adak and Dutch Harbour have been on station for about a month at this point, I think - perhaps more. They aren't really acheiving much - I don't think their floatplane pilots are recon-trained, as the detection levels have never passed 2 at either base so far as I can remember. The subs themselves have never even seen a ship - because they run the recon missions every day I always know where they are, so I can just route around. Much the same applies to their counterparts elsewhere - I'm not sure it's registering in Tokyo that they show up on my map when they do that.

Another 10,000 Americans disembark Melbourne; today a USMC Rgt and two US Army base forces. The USN military transport flotilla is accumulating here, slowly but surely; not to mention the surface fleet...once all the ships in transit arrive it should be a pretty impressive force...albeit not a very flexible force, since the nearest shipyard big enough to fix any significant damage is Cape Town, heh. I have plans for them, but may not be able to really put them into practice - much will depend on what the Japanese do with their obnoxious carrier fleet over the next couple of months.

Oh yeah - USS Washington arrives Panama. Once it makes Hawaii that gives me one fast battleship per pair of aircraft carriers, which is comforting if hardly a guarantee of anything working out well in case of a collision.



derp -> RE: August Alert (3/16/2012 1:57:58 AM)

August. 29

Also quiet, but clouds on the horizon.

80 Japanese aircraft bomb Pago Pago; damage is light, with one SBD blown up on the ground and a minefield tender damaged. Come to think of it, I'm not even sure why they're there...there aren't any mines, heh. Must have been meaning to send them somewhere else and forgotten about them. This happens a lot - I don't actually keep notes, beyond what I write here, so it's either in my head or...not. I'd be a wonderful Japanese player, from a certain point of view - everything would run as haphazardly as it's supposed to.

At least one Japanese aircraft carrier is operating with a large taskforce off Burma. The carrier, three battleships, four cruisers and "other ships"; nine spotted but with that composition no doubt more. The Catalina pilots out here are all reasonably competent, so if they say it's a proper carrier there's a reasonable chance that is a correct estimation. Certainly explains the odd attempt at ASW flying out of Magwe a few days ago, but still a bit strange; I have a fair appreciation of what's coming at Cox's Bazaar (two regiments definitely by land, and an Army group either by land or by sea, so what, five divisions plus ancilliaries?) but also a fair estimation of where they are presently - namely not on board ships but at Rangoon, which has far too large a garrison (130,000 and 1500 AFVs - probably more than just the one tank division...) to be meant for Burmese defence alone given troop commitments elsewhere in Burma (Div equiv in Arakan, Div equiv at Moulmein, Div equiv at Magwe, probably another 2-3 equiv dispersed - some of those are probably Thais, but still). So, making a big display offshore prior to loading up for an assault seems a little odd. Come will what will come, I suppose; in truth a landing in the near future would be very awkwardly timed, because the Indian units in the Arakan are displaying marked signs of being extremely tired of being in the Arakan - they're about due for a rotation out, which will not help their combat abilities if push comes to shove. Units are in place to ensure they can at least remove themselves safely if landed on, and III and XV Corps are at Allahabad and Benares and can be made available on short notice should the need arise.

So, there's that. Aleutians...USS Frazier chased off the freighter off Attu but didn't make contact. The carrier showing up off Bengal, funnily enough, makes me suspicious up here. I would guess that any attempt to seize Adak and Umnak will take place inside the next month, as that'd give the Japanese another month of tolerable weather to bring in reinforcements but exclude any realistic return options on our end. Frankly I'm not sure it's likely to happen at all at this point - Adak is held strongly enough to be dissuasive, given the enormous Japanese force in Burma - but the possibility remains. More likely they will attempt an irritant grab of Attu, Kiska etc with some expendable base force or something, heh. Anyway, US Fleet will sail in that direction; they were meant to be heading up there for a little anyway and they're too far away to be much use off Burma. They're a little short on destroyers, but more will meet them in theatre, as will their frou-frou new battleships.

Signals dregs...several units going to Cox's that I already know about.

China quiet, though probably not for much longer - Japanese army is on the rails past Kaifeng, which means they're going somewhere by the back door. Am considering blowing up the repair shipyards at Hong Kong and Shanghai; the rule is:

quote:

No industry bombing in china (china to elsewhere is okay)


The second half wasn't even my idea. I have not been taking advantage of the consequent ability to go after Taiwan, Indochina, Korea. Yet. I am uncertain whether Manchuria is considered 'China', though it's too remote at the moment to be relevant anyway. I guess on some level I am still trying to be gentle, consciously or otherwise; with the Japanese showing every sign of continuing their offensive behaviour into the autumn that should probably stop. Still - drydocks are expensive to fix. Will take a few days to get the recon and medium bombers sorted...don't really want to use many heavies as they'll just drain all the supplies from Changsha, go tech and then get bombed, so a few B-17 squadrons in India will go over to B-25 and B-26. Blenheim IV can make Hong Kong with a full load, so will grab a few squadrons for that base. I have about 60 of the things sitting around over and above squadron complements - never did find much use for them anywhere else so they've been training pilots and flying supplies into China. Fitting, I suppose...thing was supposed to be a mailplane.



derp -> RE: August Alert (3/17/2012 12:56:27 AM)

August. 30

August is coming to a close. This will also be the last update for a week unless I get a turn back in the next two hours or so as I'm off to Ireland to look at some drilling rigs...

Signals room has been working overtime today. Key Japanese units are identified away from their targets; the electrical engineers aimed at Adak haven't left Tokyo, 1st Tank Div is actually at Singapore ("fair estimation of where they are" my arse...). So, nothing's happening just yet. Another SNLF is aimed at Umnak, which at least makes me feel better about garrisoning the place. More AA units moving to Darwin, some base forces moving to Timor...still no appreciation of the consequences of stripping key economic bases of AA guns.

No further sign of the carrier(s) off Bengal. Japanese battleships deliver usual bombardment, today towards Akyab, with usual lacklustre results. Submarine K-18 shoots at a destroyer with the taskforce, but no hits.

US 7th AF Fighter and Bomber HQs make Melbourne; they've come all the way from Hawaii on APDs, the poor bastards. They will manage things in Western Australia while 5th AF manages things further east.

Release of pressure on Darwin has produced the expected Japanese movement; 100 fighters fly in and attack Daly Waters, losing around 20 Oscars in exchange for 9 friendly aircraft. Suits me - that's probably more pilots lost than I lost in the entire weeks-long Darwin campaign, heh. Most of the fighter force in Australia is down south; I am maintaining here a force as small as I think I can get away with to allow supply to accumulate - which is to say, one just small enough to invite attack and just large enough to be effective in combat. Night raids by the IJNAF remain bumbling and incapable; two are lost to Beaufighters overnight, and with the arrival of USAAF 6th FS with Havoc night-fighters we should improve our interceptions further.

Major Japanese offensive against the troops at Paotow appears to be in the offing; LCU numbers at Kweisui increased by 4, with more presumably on the way. We should know more tomorrow after an F-4 from Lanzhou scoots over. No defenses, air or ground, at Hong Kong, Haiphong, Hanoi; we will check Taihoku and Shanghai tomorrow. Chungking is stockpiling supplies in anticipation...




derp -> RE: August Alert (3/25/2012 3:01:53 AM)

August. 31

Six days outside in Ireland in mid-March and I didn't get rained on once. I always seem to get lucky with the weather...

Not much happened while I was away. USS SC-522 hits a Japanese aircraft-carrying submarine with Mousetrap off Christmas Islan; I think that's the first with that particular new toy. Sinking unlikely, but will presumably send it scurrying off home. Only major Japanese activity is sailing of what appears to be a small raider group south from the Tongas; a few destroyers and a cruiser. Joke's on them - there's nothing out there to bother except a couple of fast liners due in a week or so, so they're just wasting fuel. I'd be more concerned about anything in the Indian Ocean; the difference is easily shown in pictorial form:

[img]http://i.imgur.com/7wwKK.png[/img]

US Fifth Air Force activates; bomber HQ will fly out for Daly Waters immediately. Seventh Air Force is entrained and headed for Perth. Most of the USN destroyer force in Australia will take upgrades from tomorrow, so things will be quiet at sea for a couple more weeks yet.



derp -> RE: Salubrious September (3/27/2012 1:13:20 AM)

September. 1

Another month ticks by. USS Halibut sinks a Japanese patrol boat off Okinawa; both torpedoes work, no doubt astonishing the captain. Several other sub attacks, as usual; none successful, as usual. Only three more months until the things start to sort of work...

A large Japanese army is detraining at Kweisui; no surprise there, after their departure northwards, signal pickups on the railway past Anyang and the buzzing around of the Mongol cavalry units over the last week. Estimate is 115,000 troops, 800 guns, 450 AFV; they're headed northwest into Paotow, where 9,500 Chinese are currently arrayed against 2,000 Japanese and Quisling troops. There is not, frankly, much room for me to do anything with the knowledge in the immediate term; they can turn around and be in Changsha before any Chinese units can make it more than one hex in any direction from where they currently are. If they attack the Chinese at Paotow then return south, that's fine; those Chinese will be back stronger than they are at present. If they attack and then hare off into the Gobi Desert, that presents potential problems, but also significant opportunities. So, essentially - for the moment it's irritating but not important. That could change, but I won't know how until things start to happen.

IJAAF doesn't raid Xi'an today. This is unusual - they usually send some bombers over with around 30 Oscars as escort, having long since given up bothering with fighter sweeps, and I think it's purely a weather issue. They've been doing essentially no damage, so I've been leaving them alone - might be worth shaking that up a little, so tomorrow we'll meet them assuming they fly - weather forecast isn't great. Don't expect anything too impressive, given lack of radar, but only one squadron regularly targets the airfields so it's not as though we're likely to lose much through it.

160 IJAAF aircraft also attack 254 Armd Bde between Chittagong and Cox's; this is as much of a waste of everyone's time as the Xi'an attacks have been, damaging a truck and a mule team or whatever a support squad is supposed to be in this context for the loss of 3-5 aircraft to crashes. We lost no aircraft today; the Japanese are down 7; five Ki-21, two Ki-46 and an H8K shot down by flak over Bombay or possibly Geraldton. This is about the usual pattern of losses for the Japanese on quiet days, though usually someone crashes something or other on our end...

What else...USS Copahee is off from San Francisco with a deck of P-40s for Hawaii, then to go off to Samoa or New Zealand or wherever seems necessary.

More faffing around with the Indian Army...currently I have 11th Indian Div building up and 9th sitting as a shell; I'm actually going to reverse that, since I have enough Brit vs Indian squads spare to get away with it and I missed upgrading some units, which are currently sitting around with 41 pattern kit and presumably preventing the 100 41 squads I have from converting to 42 (? - well, they've been sat there for six weeks...), so I could use releasing 11th's squads for a week. End result's the same... and it's not like we were going anywhere in the next few weeks anyway.



derp -> RE: Salubrious September (3/30/2012 3:50:32 AM)

September. 2

Aircraft over Xi'an do well, bringing down 15 Oscar and five Helen for the loss of one P-400 and two P-40. That's about half the fighter force and a quarter of the bomber force engaged; not too bad a result considering lack of radar and relative lack of Japanese today, no doubt due to the poor weather.

Japanese aircraft raid Normanton; well, the light carriers' fighter component does; we are down nine P-40 but manage to get five Zero. Not unhappy with that trade...the ships themselves are in the middle of the Gulf of Carpentaria, which is one of the stranger places I can think of for Japanese carriers to be considering it's a dead end with nothing useful to bomb. Probably best not to ask. Supposedly their bombers were meant to fly, too, which attack I "would have regretted putting up opposition to". Apparently. This seems a slightly optimistic assessment of the likely end result, considering we have 167 AA guns (37mm+) at Normanton, but I just read these comments...

Two small Japanese cruisers bombard Niue; this is the first time they've dared go further east than Vava'u since the last pair that tried it were blown apart by bombs. Damage is negligible, with a few holes in the runway and one SBD written off. More questionable is the fact that they were within range of and outgunned by the 26 6" guns on the island during the entire bombardment period, but these didn't feel the need to fire a single shot.

IJA 14th Div is reported preparing for Adak; I think that brings potential commitment here up to the equivalent of three divisions. Notably, these guys were last seen at Darwin a month ago, being the division that fled bombing while abandoning the engineers etc - quite the change of climate for them, but I suppose they'll be used to frosty receptions by now. I have a suspicion that they're off the Moluccas with a heavy escort; three American submarines are patrolling or in transit around Ceram, and all three were suddenly perfectly illuminated by Vals today - the nearest actual airfield, at Ternate, is barely in range, and USS Silversides caught a brief glimpse of at least four fleet oilers heading eastwards out of the Makassar Strait. Nothing definite...but suspicious. If they are doing what I think they should make Tokyo (which I'm pretty sure is the jumping-off point for the Aleutian operation; lots of submarines etc heading there lately according to signal gnomes...) in about a week, and could be in the Aleutians in about two. We'll see. They could equally be at sea off Tokyo already - they have had enough time that they could conceptually have been there two weeks ago...

HMS Trusty torpedoes a sub-chaser off the Andamans. 166 to go...this week's battleship force in the Arakan appears to have five, so that may give us some new faces tonight. Either that or the Catalina pilots have got into the exotic cheroots again.

Something of a scandal down in Australia; eight destroyers from the fleet at Melbourne shot up to Sydney yesterday to decentralise upgrades a little. I sent them at high speed, figuring they'd be in the yards long enough to repair any minor damage anyway, but it seems their captains aren't used to going faster than the speed of the slowest merchant; USS Shaw and USS Drayton collide, then USS Cushing and USS Fanning collide. None of the damage is too serious, and they all made Sydney by the end of the day, but I think there are going to be some harsh words among that sorry lot...



derp -> RE: Salubrious September (3/31/2012 7:50:02 AM)

September. 3

Not much. Cox's Bazaar manages to land a few 6" shells on the bombarding battleships; no significant damage in return, though the 160 bombers up from Burma do some to the airfield. Signals have two units planning for the base, but neither are new. I do wonder at this whole affair; it's certainly the least subtle lead-up to a major offensive I've seen so far, and while I don't really have Saros down as either subtle or particularly, uh...gifted...there can't not have been an 'I know you know' moment in the last few weeks. So, y'know, it may just fizzle out. Anyway, 14th Indian Div is railing out, eventually for Akyab, which will release the Div there back to India for some rest and equipment upgrades.

North Pacific is busily inconsequential; off Sakhalin, USS Wahoo makes three separate attacks, none functional; USS Whale two, neither functional. USS Frazier contacts the Japanese freighter that's been hanging around irritating the search pilots from Attu, but no actual engagement takes place. One day something might actually happen up here...



derp -> RE: Salubrious September (3/31/2012 9:01:50 PM)

September. 4

Quiet. USS Trout bonks a Japanese tanker convoy off Okinawa. My suspicion recently has been that merchant traffic has abandoned the China Sea entirely; submarines have picked up movements northeastwards past Celebes and Mindanao, which fits with a routing from Surabaya-ish to Osaka-ish; this would certainly seem to fit with that. At the least there have been no detectable ship movements of any kind except harbour traffic within Catalina range from Changsha, which is to say 17 hexes - or about 150 miles past Taiwan - since those aircraft arrived there. All this for the price of a naval search squadron for a few weeks...submarine operations against Japanese merchant shipping will increase significantly in the next 2-4 weeks, with about 25 submarines, new and existing, moving onto that duty from others, so we should start to see some effects resulting from that - if the Japanese have shifted eastwards that's great, since it's less of a transit from Midway and being deep water it's much safer for operations.

It is notable that most Japanese convoys are very scantily escorted; the tankers today seem to have had one converted merchant and nothing more. Most effective ASW ships are at or around front-line bases, where I've been trying to keep them by circulating a few submarines into "danger".

Signals mostly uninformative, though there are a few new minor units - JAAF base forces, SNLFs etc - pegged for Cox's and Adak.



derp -> RE: Salubrious September (4/1/2012 10:30:33 AM)

September. 5

Little enough of significance that I don't feel bad skipping a day.

September. 6

USS Kane sinks a Japanese fleet submarine off Tahiti. It's been there for weeks, but unlike most of the loiterers isn't one of the aircraft-carriers. Odd.

Land and sea quiet with three exceptions.

- Japanese aircraft bomb the land component of an American engineer regiment on the road between Normanton and Daly Waters. Conceptually rather silly, but damage is only to motor support.

- Japanese attack at Paotow proceeds essentially as expected - eight divisions and an armoured brigade attack two small Chinese corps, casualties being similar but forcing the Chinese back.

- Something else I've already forgotten about, so it can't have been very important.

The real event today, however, comes from the signal room; I think we've finally cracked the Japanese codes!

quote:

Heavy Volume of Radio transmissions detected at Tokyo (114,60).
Heavy Volume of Radio transmissions detected at Tokyo (114,60).
Guards Mixed Brigade is planning for an attack on Adak Island.
4th Division is planning for an attack on Dutch Harbor.
11/4th Division is planning for an attack on Dutch Harbor.
4/4th Division is planning for an attack on Dutch Harbor.
16/Guards Mixed Brigade is loaded on a Japanese AK moving to Tokyo.
2/44th Naval Guard Unit is loaded on AK Tatuwa Maru moving to Tokyo. ?, but it's been at Tokyo for at least two months...
1/Guards Mixed Brigade is located at Tokyo(114,60).
24/14th Division is loaded on xAP Buenos Aires Maru moving to Tokyo. Likely still in transit
2/Guards Mixed Brigade is loaded on a Yusen S class AK moving to Tokyo.



A more suspicious person than I might think they're going for a sail...4th Div is new to me for the operation, last having been seen in China back in June. Considering they're loading up but haven't yet sailed (presumably), they are likely waiting for their escort. The large carriers are likely between Mindanao and Japan at the moment, on the assumption that the Val superball a few days ago was what I think it was; the small carriers were spotted by a submarine yesterday off the Kai islands and on the face of it don't seem likely to be involved in the first stage.

The Japanese are certainly working with some, er...enthusiastic expectations here.

#####################################################################################################

Current garrisons in the Aleutians:

Adak: 2 US Army Rgt, 1 Canadian Bde, 1 US Cmbt Engr Rgt, 2 Arty Bn, 2 USN Base Force, 1 US Army Base Force, 3 Coast AA Rgt, 1 Coast Arty Rgt (24 6" guns, 220 mines). 140,000t of supplies, 55,000t fuel. US 129th Inf Rgt will arrive in three days, having diverted from a Hawaiian convoy a week or so back when I was thinking about how short a timescale the Japanese would be working to up here. Handy, that...

Umnak: 1 US Army Rgt, 1 USN Base Force, 1 Coast Arty Bn (8 6" guns). 28,000t of supplies, 2600t of fuel. Bn 297th Inf Rgt is at sea and will arrive in two days; it was going to Shemya, but I don't think there's time to make that viable.

Dutch Harbour: 2 US Army Rgt, 1 USN Base Force, 1 Coast Arty Bn (8 6" guns), 1 Coast AA Rgt. 80,000t of supplies, 11,000t of fuel.

Cold Bay: 2/3rds 1 US Army Rgt, Air Ops Det. 6500t of supplies. 221st USN Base Force is at sea and will arrive in two days. Army Rgt is flying in (it's the "how far can we fly from Anchorage" base) and may partially go somewhere else depending on whether this base gets invaded - I suspect it may not, being at the eastern end of the chain.

These four bases are the only airfields between Kodiak Island and Paramushiro. Japanese air support will be entirely dependent on carriers for the first few days unless they manage to capture an airfield. I imagine they will manage to put together some fields in the western Aleutians, but...whatever.

Canada can provide one brigade in four days (needs 370 PP, I have 170) and another in eleven days if required. Shipping is available to move them fast - a quintet of Grace Line liners just finished refits at SF.

#####################################################################################################

Current inventory of 11th Air Force and RCAF Alaska Det, from west to east:

Shemya: 5 Catalina

Adak: 25 Mohawk, 50 Airacobra, 12 Bolingbroke, 6 Catalina

Umnak: 18 Kingfisher

Dutch Harbour: 41 Warhawk/Kittyhawk

Kodiak: 28 Helldiver, 19 Wildcat

Anchorage: 24 Havoc, 21 Hudson, 19 Bolo, 21 Marauder, 71 Warhawk, 42 Vindicator, 15 Avenger, 6 Catalina, 6 Airacobra, 12 Dakota

A fair few of these aircraft will withdraw in three weeks. All the better to use them now, then...

#####################################################################################################

Current 3-day reserve of aircraft:

55th Fighter Group: 50 Warhawk (Seattle)
90th Bombardment Group: 16 B-17 (Hawaii)
VB-2: 15 Avenger (Tonga)
VP-51: 10 Catalina (Tonga)
67th Fighter Sqn: 25 Warhawk (USS Copahee, off Hawaii)
328th Fighter Group: 36 Airacobra (Seattle)
111 Sqn RCAF: 11 Kittyhawk (Prince Rupert)

#####################################################################################################

Current aircraft reserve pool:

17 Airacobra
20 Lightning
93 Warhawk

48 Buffalo
21 Wildcat
60 SBD
10 Catalina

10 Liberator
14 Mitchell
13 Marauder

14 Kittyhawk
51 Hurricane

#####################################################################################################

Situation at sea:

18 PT boats are available for deployment.

US Pacific Fleet is 450 miles south of Dutch Harbour

CVs Enterprise, Yorktown, Hornet, Wasp, Lexington, Saratoga (540 aircraft)
BB North Carolina
CAs Salt Lake City, Louisville, Chester, Chicago, Quincy, Houston, Northampton
CLAAs Atlanta, San Juan
DDs Lardner, Bancroft, Dunlap, Phelps, Lansdowne, Helm, Ralph Talbot, Henley, Craven, McCall, Selfridge, Grayson, Maury, Ellet, Lang, Stack, Sterett, Porter, Frazier, Downes, Gridley, Allen
Fast AOs Cimarron, Neosho with 16,000t of fuel; all ships fuelled yesterday.


USS South Dakota is at Seattle repairing an engine defect and should sail in three days; will be with the fleet in 7-8 days.
USS Washington is at sea south of Los Angeles and should be with the fleet in 10-12 days.
USS West Virginia is at Los Angeles finishing up repairs and should sail in three days; will be with the fleet in 10-11 days.
USS Juneau sailed from San Francisco two days ago and should be with the fleet in three days.
USS Raleigh is in the Bering Sea 150 miles north of Adak.

A second refuelling group, with fast AOs Platte, Sabine, Kaskaskia and DD Wilson is at Prince Rupert loading fuel.

#####################################################################################################

Now we wait...



derp -> RE: Salubrious September (4/1/2012 10:31:09 PM)

September. 7

Mostly quiet. USS Albacore, Whale and Wahoo all dud torpedoes off merchant Penang Maru off Sakhalin. Must have a load of four-leaf clovers...

Reading the tea leaves...

quote:

Heavy Volume of Radio transmissions detected at Tokyo (114,60).
3/21st Division is loaded on a Husimi class AK moving to Tokyo.
7/55th Division is planning for an attack on Adak Island.
3/Guards Mixed Brigade is planning for an attack on Adak Island.
2nd Ind. Engineer Regiment is loaded on xAK Iburi Maru moving to Tokyo.
10/21st Division is planning for an attack on Umnak Island.


So:

Adak:

14th Div
55th Div
Guards Mixed Bde
61st Infantry Group
27th Electrical Engineer Rgt

Umnak:

21st Div

Dutch Harbour:

4th Div

Undefined:

2nd Ind. Engr Rgt (also Adak, I think, but I can't find the report...)
44th SNLF
Eastern Army (static Japan, out of range)
16th AA Coy
13th JAAF BF (at Tokyo, was Kwantung Army)
62nd Infantry Group (not confirmed anywhere, but known to be at Tokyo...)
A couple more SNLF and BF I can't be bothered looking up
? - what don't I know about?

This is going to be interesting. The land forces identified so far are not, I think, sufficient at any point to do what the Japanese need them to do without significant external support - Umnak is most at-risk, being the place with the lightest garrison relative to the threat against it, but the situation there will improve significantly in the next 10 days. The Japanese will not have the advantage of army aviation support within at least the first week, and the profligate use of these aircraft has been critical to Japanese land operations so far conducted. The sticking point is that we do not, in all probability, have the land forces on the islands to perform the reverse feat - so the Japanese will likely be in place for some time unless evacuated.

Japanese carrier forces are likely to include at least eight medium or large fleet aircraft carriers with at least 6-8 8in cruisers or battlecruisers as heavy escort. Aircraft complement will likely be similar to that we can assemble with six - 500-550 aircraft. On past experience I expect these to operate as a distant escort for the invasion forces rather than providing cover for these directly. This may provide opportunities to engage them directly; the tricky part will be finding them and working out where they'll be 'tomorrow'. If the light carriers are around when the force sails, these are likely to provide a close escort, ditching their bomber complement entirely for an all-fighter loadout.

If the opportunity arises I will attempt to engage these ships rather than the invasion forces; land-based aircraft and ground forces should be sufficient to keep things in hand on the islands themselves.

Japanese naval surface forces will probably outnumber us slightly in major warships and significantly in small warships. At least three battleships and two 8in cruisers are in the Bay of Bengal, but that still leaves a large number of ships theoretically available and unaccounted for. My most significant problem is that I only have enough destroyers to work with the carrier fleet - I expect the seas distal to invasion forces to be flooded with Japanese submarines immediately ahead of the operation and carriers etc will to an extent depend on operating at high speed to remain in the area. We will receive a trickle of destroyers and a large number of subchasers etc over the next month, so we may be able to cause some damage to Japanese naval forces that remain past the initial surge period.

Japanese air forces are heavily committed elsewhere. I expect some provision for land-based aircraft deployment has been made, but I don't believe it's likely to be on the scale needed to maintain air operations at key times absent the presence of carriers. Most likely the Japanese will attempt to create an air presence in the far western Aleutians - Attu, Agattu, Shemya - and work eastwards from there. No work has been conducted by our forces on any airfields west of Adak up to this point. Nearly all Japanese construction units currently known are committed to front or near-front areas - Ceylon, Australia, the Andamans, Timor and New Guinea - and so their ability to build and repair airfields is likely to be limited.

I am unsure how the Japanese intend to get shipping past Adak and into Umnak, Dutch Harbor etc. Either a direct route past Adak or a roundabout route up into the Bering Sea will leave this shipping significantly exposed to air attack. This would seem more sensible as a second-stage objective, to be done after Adak falls (with these forces initially being used to assist in taking that base), but they're at sea already...

Yeah. "Interesting". I can only think that there are either major forces involved that I am not yet aware of, or that the Japanese have completely misinterpreted the information they've been getting out of their submarines for the past couple of months. Either way, I'm keeping my mouth shut and my grin broad...



derp -> RE: Salubrious September (4/3/2012 4:11:17 AM)

September. 8

Fiddling while Rome burns. Except, in this metaphor, I guess I'm a Carthaginian?

185 Japanese bombers raid Chittagong. A couple of Hudsons are damaged, but are repaired by morning; damage to facilities is minimal. There are only four HAA guns here, though I don't think the Japanese know that. Other than that, a quiet day. Signals lively, but don't tell us anything we don't already know.

While the Japanese prepare to putz around in the Aleutians, the Australian Squadron is preparing for operations to return to Broome (and Port Hedland, as an incidental aside). Current intention is to load troops in around 10 days, with landings to go ahead 8-10 days after that; or, alternatively, if we can time things so that we land at Broome the same day the Japanese land at Adak that'd be pretty amusing. More details as appropriate later...

Also, I found USS New Orleans and three destroyers halfway between Pearl Harbour and Los Angeles - apparently I attached them to some freighters headed for LA from Australia and just forgot they were around. This happens a lot with me. Handy, though, since they should be able to make the Aleutians in time to be useful...



derp -> RE: Salubrious September (4/3/2012 11:50:02 AM)

September. 9

USS Wahoo torpedoes small freighter Toten Maru off Sakhalin. A working one...Wahoo seems to be lucky in this respect.

Japanese cruisers Kuma and Tama and destroyers Akebono and Sazanami again bombard Niue; we did see them getting into position yesterday, but the strike squadron previously at Niue has withdrawn to Hawaii to be available for the Aleutians, so no direct attacks were launched on either day. The bombardment causes only minor inconvenience, with one Wildcat written off and half a dozen lightly damaged, though the CD guns are again entirely useless. The ships remain off Niue as the sun rises, however, and USMC pilots from an anti-sub SBD squadron claim to have hit Tama twice and Sazanami once. These aren't observed hits, so there are no guarantees they actually did, or what they hit them with if they in fact did; the pilots in question are experienced and exceptionally good at the 'bombing' side of anti-sub work, however - probably the best in the whole Corps, as it's a squadron that's been around since the start of the war, so there is some scope for optimism.

While this is all going on, at least eight ships pass south of the Tongas; may be a second bombardment mission or a raiding force, as it wasn't last time. There's still essentially nothing for them to do out in the Pacific.

107 Japanese bombers raid the airfield at Chihkiang in China; of 428 bombs dropped, 14 hit. 3.2%

186 Japanese bombers hit Akyab; of 744 bombs dropped, 46 hit. 6.1%

Weather at Chihkiang was poor, at Akyab good. No HAA at either base. Must have gotten up on the wrong side of the mat this morning...

Japanese deployments for the Aleutians continue to be a little...baffling. IJA 22nd Tank Rgt shows up on Hokkaido at the beginning of August; you'd think that it'd be a great candidate for inclusion into any major incursion, but apparently it's actually at sea headed for...Palau. I don't even know.



derp -> RE: Waiting Game (4/9/2012 1:38:28 PM)

Since it's been a rather long time since I had a turn back from New Zealand, I've been sandboxing an Aleutians battle...configurations are ours as known (6CV, 3BB, 8CA, 3CLAA, 24 DD but with fewer fighters, slightly worse pilots and leaders - as a 'what if everything goes wrong' type thing - and the Japanese as worst-case scenario estimate - 8 fleet carriers, 6 battleships, 8 8in cruisers, 4 5.5in cruisers, 40 destroyers, as many aircraft as the carriers will hold.

These are all predicated on a 'Japanese carriers are distant escorts and we engage them as such' scenario - so just out of range of land bases, transports etc. That may or may not come to pass. Also no submarines, which is extremely optimistic.

Run 1: Both strikes coordinated except for one squadron per side.
J: Two carriers out of flight operations. Two more lightly damaged but flyable.
A: Four carriers out of flight operations. One battleship and one heavy cruiser sunk.

Run 2: Strikes mostly coordinated. Both sides launch two major strikes.
J: Five carriers out of flight operations.
A: Two carriers sunk. Four carriers out of flight operations. One battleship heavily damaged.

Run 3: Strikes entirely coordinated. A 'reverse Midway'.
J: Two carriers out of flight operations. Two carriers lightly damaged.
A: Four carriers sunk. Two battleships sunk. Largest undamaged ship is CLAA Atlanta

Run 4: Strikes coordinated except for two ineffective USN.

J: Two carriers sunk. Two carriers out of flight operations.
A: Four carriers sunk. Two carriers heavily damaged. Two battleships sunk.

Run 5: Coordinated.
J: Two carriers sunk.
A: One carrier sunk. Two carriers heavily damaged. One battleship heavily damaged.

Run 6: Wild night melee between carrier forces. No hits. In morning Allied fleet is dispersed around Japanese in a roughly circular pattern. Strikes all over the place; two Allied carriers don't fly aircraft at all.
J: Two carriers lightly damaged.
A: Three carriers sunk. One carrier out of flight operations. One battleship heavily damaged.

Run 7: Allied fleet approaches Japanese in line abreast, two carriers per hex. This is not a method that's really usable absent knowing exactly where the enemy will be, but just to see what happens...
J: One carrier sunk. One carrier out of flight operations. Two carriers lightly damaged.
A: One carrier sunk. Two carriers heavily damaged. One battleship moderately damaged.

Run 8: No engagement on first day. 20 Allied and 4 Japanese aircraft lost on search duties. Carrier forces make contact on surface during night phase; no engagements. Allies retire towards Adak; Japanese strike attacks fast oiler group on second day, sinking three. On third day, Japanese are in two halves 90mi apart for unknown reasons and strikes are uncoordinated.

J: One carrier sunk. One carrier out of flight operations. One carrier moderately damaged.
A: One battleship sunk. One carrier out of flight operations. One carrier moderately damaged.

Run 9: Coordinated.
J: Three carriers out of flight operations.
A: One carrier sunk. Five carriers heavily damaged. One battleship sunk. One battleship heavily damaged.

###

There were more, but since I did'em just after getting up I wasn't too diligent in taking notes.

I later ran some using the approximate actual number of aircraft, and the actual quality of pilots, that I hope to have available; most of these ended somewhat better, though the tendency remains for the trade to be a Japanese carrier damaged for a US carrier sunk.

###

Some conclusions from these runs are fairly obvious or already known; others not so much (at least to me). Still, it's worth being reminded of them in advance of doing anything wild and crazy...

- Japanese aircraft losses were generally not outrageously high; 80-120 aircraft. US fighters were main killer of and effective against J fighters but were generally ineffective in attacking J bombers. Second strikes, where they occurred, were usually at least as effective as first strikes given reduced defenses. Aircraft in most cases departed essentially unmolested once attacks were over.

- US aircraft losses were generally higher, totalling minimum 120% to maximum 300% of Japanese losses even with pilot groups of comparable experience. Main killer was fighters during egress; US fighters were generally effective in protecting aircraft on the way in but losses to departing aircraft were uniformly much higher than Japanese during equivalent period. Conceptually most likely explanation seems higher speed of A6M3 v Wildcat.

- Ship AA was broadly ineffective throughout, though the Japanese is slightly better than the American; no doubt a consequence of having more ships firing. Most ships with DP weapons expended the majority of their ammunition to destroy around 5-10 and write off 20-30 (ops losses; some will involve fighters at that) aircraft in first major raid. Losses to AA on second raids negligible due to total expenditure of ammunition. US AA fits are still slightly unimpressive with most ships carting around 1.1in guns vice Bofors, so this will at least improve in the long term.

- Aircraft can divert further than I expected; although these battles were generally conducted 450-500mi from Adak (so theoretically outside of aircraft range) US aircraft of all types routinely diverted there. Potentially this is a critical point given high odds of a negative outcome at sea and almost certain Japanese lack of bases, so I will be considering distance from land bases much more than I was.

- Separation of fighter groups into 'Escort' (long-range) groups and 'CAP' (0 range) groups is unhelpful and tends to result in the CAP groups going down with their carriers wholesale. I guess they don't count as divertable if they do that.

- Japanese dive bombing accuracy is somewhat greater than American even at identical experience and skill levels; combat report has most D3A pilots releasing at 1000-2000ft and most SBD pilots releasing at 3000-4000ft which would seem to fit that. Could be a series of unlucky dice rolls, but could not be.

- Given number of fighters available to US, it seems helpful to weight more towards escorting bombers rather than defending against them; defending fighters are essentially ineffective against attacking bombers in either case, but heavier escort tends to see improved results on the bombers' end.

- Dispersion across multiple hexes is not inherently bad but is an extra roll of the dice; if the opposing aircraft concentrate on one TF it can work out well, if they disperse it's not particularly better or worse than having the forces concentrated, at this scale, with the caveat that it's a situation very intolerant of having separate CAP and escort squadrons - especially if individual carriers are dedicated to one or the other. There is the risk of friendly forces being out of range, or failing to attack, and it's particularly problematic to try to arrange a dispersed fight if you don't know where the collision will take place. If I had a crystal ball and knew exactly where the Japanese were going to be I would probably operate separately; as I don't...

- The TBF is not particularly useful as a torpedo bomber, if in fact it ever will be, even with experienced pilots; I think there were about 8 US torpedo hits across the 15 or so total runs. Obviously 50% dud rate is not helpful. The aircraft are at least passably effective as level bombers, notwithstanding that I can only ever get them to carry two 500lb bombs; in theory they should carry four, I think, but I'm not sure how one goes about getting them to do so.

- In situations where you have a greater number of fighters than you feel you can actually apply (so, late-war USN only, then...) there is no harm in having some fighters set to naval attack rather than escort; they do dump bombs and shoot back at intercepting fighters reasonably effectively, though tending to be bad at bombing they're unlikely to hit much if they keep their eggs. When I set the USN up to try this just for the hell of it they managed about one fighter kill per loss; I imagine given something better than a Wildcat they might do well. One might, conceivably, set up a first-day force equivalent in size to an expected Japanese fleet, hoping for it to accept an engagement at 'favourable' odds, and use this method to strip it of its fighters before a second force follows up. In the real world, of course, that's asking for trouble, but it's something you could try if you were feeling lucky...

- Given equivalent pilots, the average for this particular battle seems to be about 1 Japanese and 2 American carriers sunk and 3 Japanese and 2.5 American carriers damaged. Japanese carriers on the whole seem better able to take battle damage, I think as a consequence of ineffectiveness of US torpedoes. At no point in any of these runs were any of the 6 Japanese battleships used appreciably damaged; torpedoes don't work (one was hit by a working torpedo once; damage was minimal) and bombs are not effective in the numbers available to hit one particular ship. US battleships are problematic as heavy escorts - tendency is for them to take several torpedoes and either sink outright or be immobilised, which would lead to large numbers of losses if I played the scenario out past one day of strikes, but they do at least attract attention. Japanese losses in destroyers and cruisers tend to be slightly higher, but then there are more of them to go around. Japanese surface combatant superiority makes US losses in the post-battle period more likely than Japanese losses notwithstanding better damage control.

All in all, it's not an encouraging set of results, but it's not particularly a discouraging set either; I guess it's just confirming what I already knew. Much will depend on what the Japanese do with their battleships - if the carriers do not have heavy escorts I would expect any major battle to sink at least two and heavily damage the rest. However, as at least two of the Japanese carriers are 25kt jobs it seems likely that they will be accompanied, since battleships wouldn't slow things down at all.

With regards to the candidates:

The Kongos were all last seen off the Cocos Islands; Hiei in May, Kongo in June, Haruna and Kirishima in July. All four are expected to be tied to any carrier force (as in fact they probably were back in the summer - I think the carriers were at Singapore during this period).
Yamato was also last seen off the Cocos Islands in July; actually I could have sworn it was operating off Burma at one point, but I can't find any trace of it in the reports.
Nagato, Fuso, Ise and Hyuga were all scorched a bit at Port Blair two months ago. I expect all will be back in service by now. Fuso at least was off Burma a week ago; the others haven't been seen since.
Yamashiro was last seen off Burma a week ago with Fuso.
Mutsu was last seen off Samoa in May and is probably at Luganville; that's the main Japanese anchorage in the South Pacific area and coastwatchers peg a battleship there and around Fiji every so often.

So potentially the Japanese could have eight along; I expect Dutch Harbour and Adak landing forces to include at least one each, most likely Ise and Hyuga, but whether Yamato and Nagato accompany carriers or landings is up in the air. Considering good base situation and availability of large air forces in Aleutians it may be more sensible to send the carriers to Australia and engage the Japanese with surface forces if invasion forces are lightly escorted; all major USN units except Washington, South Dakota and Juneau have had a lot of sea time and crews are as good as they are going to get by training alone. Fleet will remain in a position to keep its options open.

Alternatively, this could all be a diversion for mass landings in the Arakan. Seems a bit of a waste, though, considering there's not much I could do about those navy-wise anyway. More likely seems the reverse; on the face of it I think naval operations off Bengal are fairly unlikely at this point, the enormous land force more likely intended for land approach or just defense of Burma. That area can be explored in more depth in about a month absent the Japanese doing anything rash.



derp -> RE: September 1942 (4/11/2012 6:04:02 AM)

September. 10

Niue in fact sees two bombardments; coast artillery manages to fire back this time, though without hitting anything. Ships involved are Kinugasa, Aoba, Isuzu, Nagara, Ushio, Oboro, Amagiri, Yugiri, in addition to the immediate return of the same taskforce as yesterday; any bomb damage clearly wasn't heavy. The candidate list for the Aleutians shrinks further...damage is a little greater than was accomplished yesterday, with one Wildcat and one Kingfisher written off, moderate damage to the airfields from the first force and no damage at all from the second.

103 Japanese bombers, all G3M3 type, then arrive for a bombing raid; it's apparent that they were expecting little if any opposition. 27 US Navy and Marine Wildcats (most of the base's complement) rise to meet them; fully 40 are shot down outright, with 5-10 more estimated lost on the way home. Damage from the raid is light. Home is Fiji; 800 miles is undoubtedly a long way to go on one engine. 22 Japanese Army fighters then attack in the afternoon, shooting down three Wildcats for the loss of 8-12 Oscars.

So, an enjoyable day. The problem in constant-pressure situations like this is not aircraft losses, which aren't really an issue at the moment; or damage to facilities, which is easily enough repaired in the long term considering the number of engineers on Niue. Rather, it's aircrew morale - well, the fighter groups are on a high, what with their impressive tally for today, but the bomber and patrol groups aren't happy at all - and LCU disruption; weirdly, every single base force, AA, aviation support unit has a disruption of exactly 74. I guess it's uniformly applied per base. In any case, Niue is solidly enough held, well supplied...and essentially irrelevant in a broad sense now that we're starting to receive escort carriers. It's been very useful as a fighter transit base, but has never really been anything more than that - I picked it over one of the main Tongas as it's too far away from Fiji to be of much use in attacking that base - which makes Japanese attempts to knock it out all the more strange. It certainly could be done - a couple of weeks of fighter sweeps in advance of a really heavy bombardment & bombing combo - I just don't really see where the payoff is. Yet another case of doing something for the sake of having something to do, I suppose.

99 Japanese aircraft also bomb Chihkiang again; their aim is terrible, again.

Submarines off Japan busy today; Trigger makes two attacks, Albacore one, Whale two, Halibut three, Wahoo one. Nothing results. Incidentally - I've been running submarines in pairs for the last month or so; it's only really up here that they've been finding anything to attack, but I think the number of attempts they've been making on a pretty much daily basis is proof the concept is as effective as has been intimated elsewhere. Other areas they're effective and make multiple attacks when they find anything, there just...aren't any Japanese around, for the most part.

Nothing new on the Aleutian front except confirmation of another SNLF headed to Cold Bay. Nothing to worry about at that. Have decided to send a light detachment to Amchitka as troops are available (2nd Rgt from 37th Inf Div is at sea a week or so out, with no definite destination yet) and it can always be recalled to Adak by air if Japanese show up with a full division...



derp -> RE: September 1942 (4/12/2012 2:57:34 PM)

September. 11

Minor Japanese Navy fighter sweep over Niue is met by 18 Wildcats. Results good; one friendly aircraft lost for 6-8 Japanese. Fighters at Vava'u have scuttled off back to Fiji in shame.

A second Japanese fighter group takes offered bait in front of Daly Waters; I moved a couple of AA units out a few miles north in the hope that they'd attract this sort of thing, being curious as to how fighter forces would perform in a distant situation without radar direction. 75 Oscars attack; around 20 friendly fighters meet them. Performance in this case is unimpressive - 9 P-40 and a Hurricane lost for 4-6 Oscars - but well within the bounds of being to our advantage. The principle I'm working on is that if fighting over friendly territory, the attacker needs ~3:1 in losses to prevent an aggregate loss of experience to its own pilots; the Japanese have essentially never reached that level, and probably 80% of all aerial combat has been conducted over areas we control.

That fighter force has now fled Darwin; they never dare stick around for more than a day. With the imminent arrival of the motorised fraction of the construction units at Daly Waters I anticipate moving on Katherine in about 10-15 days.

I also let the 5th AF bomber groups off their leash a little with an attack on Horn Island; 40 B-26 damage the airfield facilities and destroy a recon aircraft, and 24 Liberator bomb Japanese ground forces. Being an atoll, the injury inflicted on the troops by that small force was enormous. They'll recover, but it will be trivial to blow them off the island when the time comes.

USS Washington arrives at Victoria. Given poor performance of battleships in the carrier battle wargames I've decided to let the ship stand down for a fortnight to replace 1.1in guns with Bofors. USS South Dakota has had engine defects repaired and will sail from Seattle to join carrier forces. A factor in that decision is signal identification of IJA 21st Div at Tokyo - unfragmented. Seems likely that it was in transit to Tokyo before, rather than loading up for the attack, so it'll be a little while yet before anything happens.

China quiet.

Coastwatchers are unusually lively in the South Pacific today, reporting Yamato at Nadi and Luganville, and CV Zuikaku at Rabaul, Efate and Luganville. Their reporting one ship in several places at once isn't at all unusual - it's the norm, in fact - but they are usually reasonably accurate as regards the number and type of ships they report being in the general area; which makes Zuikaku, as a carrier, stick out a bit. The Japanese have not, so far, sent out individual carriers for any purpose, however, so the most likely possibility would seem to be a single ship moved down from Truk as a brief distraction; possibly one of the light carriers.



derp -> RE: September 1942 (4/14/2012 8:10:30 AM)

September. 12

Combat-wise, nothing really worthy of the term.

Signal-wise, we pin down 62nd Inf Group (previously in the 'unconfirmed but suspected' category, which leaves me dangerously conscious of my own brilliance) as aimed at...Amchitka. Funny, that. 14th Div is also confirmed at Tokyo unfragmented, but a couple of the smaller units are at sea off Tokyo. Clock's ticking...




derp -> RE: September 1942 (4/14/2012 5:38:17 PM)

On Supplying Australia

"Once I take Fiji the Allied supply line to Australia will be cut."

"Closing down the Pacific entirely to Allied shipping..."

"If I can take Port Moresby, advance into Samoa/Fiji etc, I'm hoping to slowly choke off supplies and troops to Australia, causing major problems for the Allies when they want to strike back."

etc

This seems to come up a lot, I think perhaps as received wisdom. I have some experience on the matter by this point, I think; here New Caledonia and Fiji were both captured by the Japanese back in January, long before any reinforcements would have arrived anyway. A faint scent of aged brie still wafts westward out of the Tasman Sea on occasion, but we persevere. Anyway, between then and now - so in the last seven months - I don't think more than 100 merchant sailings have passed between New Zealand and Tahiti; this was mostly by choice, with none of the ships doing so ever really having been bothered, but it still serves to illustrate why an attempt to isolate Australia from the Pacific alone is not going to win you the war. Here's the Indian Ocean earlier today:

[img]http://i.imgur.com/u7HIp.png[/img]

Right now, between bases in Australia and New Zealand I have about 700,000t of fuel and...actually I don't know how many megatons of supplies. Enough that I haven't imported any for several months, anyway. There's also 218,000t of fuel at sea between the map edge and Australian ports, and another 106,000t at sea between Cape Town and the map edge; so, in total I will have about 900,000t available for the upcoming operational period. A month ago, when I started counting, there was about 300kt in Australia and another 300kt at sea, so imports are pretty much running at 250kt-300kt per month. Another 250,000t is at Cape Town, and about 500,000t will arrive there within the next month, so we will have no issues keeping up that rate as long as the IO remains open. Which, uh, it should.

Every port between Perth and Melbourne is being used to some degree, though I'm avoiding direct approaches from the Cape to Perth just out of sheer paranoia. Ships are not leaving Australia with empty tanks; yes, you get a larger stockpile built up, but I've had issues in the past with merchants running on empty during pursuits - I know some Allied players are...casual about merchant shipping, but I am at the point where I know all the damn things by name - I know where they are, and what they're doing, and where they're gonna be in a month. I don't quite know what all their captains are called, yet, but still - I do try to keep'em safe.

The Japanese, of course, have helped:

[img]http://i.imgur.com/uoZsv.png[/img]

I have never not been worried about submarines. Half a dozen of the aircraft-carriers - or even half a dozen normal ones with a couple of aircraft sprinkled in - in the Indian Ocean would be an utter nightmare - there are usually 50-80 ships on the map between Australia and Cape Town, most of them sailing independently, and I really can't afford to cancel sailings just because of submarines. None have been seen off Australia since the Dalgoma was torpedoed, though. The Japanese have had a great opportunity to do some very real damage here - they still occupy Port Hedland and Broome, though perhaps not for much longer - but have made absolutely nothing of it. A couple of faintly cartoonish attempts at surface raiding were of course made; two months ago a couple of decent cruisers would have shut the entire route down for weeks. Naval strength on the Australia Station is currently:

3 aircraft carriers (all small, granted, but...)
17 (! - no, really...) battleships;
14 8in and 12 6in cruisers;
~55 destroyers
~10 AMCs, gunboats etc sufficiently armed to stand up to armed merchants

So, uh, any raiders would now have to be in and out real quick. What I don't have are long-range ASW ships - there are two converted USN destroyers, and usually a couple of British and Dutch destroyers out at sea, but mostly ASW is a close-in job. And yet...no submarines.

The real consequence of this passivity is not really in disruption or otherwise of shipments - they'd have made it through no matter what - but rather that I've been able, in the meantime, to build up a stockpile of merchants in Australia to support naval operations over the next several months. I think at the moment I have about 140 ships awaiting that job, not counting the actual Navy transports, ammo carriers, AGs etc which would bring the number up past 200.

Anyway, yap yap yap; why bother? Well - if you're sat in Tokyo, and you've got it into your head that all you need to do to starve Australia is show up in Fiji and blow up some party balloons, you should probably start thinking about what you plan to do about the Indian Ocean - because if you do nothing you're really only harming yourself.



obvert -> RE: September 1942 (4/14/2012 5:57:42 PM)

Off map to south OZ does seem a good way to go. It would be hard to be out there all of the time searching for the points at which you leave the wormhole. One good KB raid would cause a bit of a problem though if your opponent decided to go for a wander from Batavia or somewhere you couldn't track with naval search.

Hope you have a few early warning pickets or something between these areas and the DEI.



derp -> RE: September 1942 (4/14/2012 7:03:16 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Off map to south OZ does seem a good way to go. It would be hard to be out there all of the time searching for the points at which you leave the wormhole. One good KB raid would cause a bit of a problem though if your opponent decided to go for a wander from Batavia or somewhere you couldn't track with naval search.

Hope you have a few early warning pickets or something between these areas and the DEI.


At this point, a 'good' raid would cost time and maybe a couple of merchants, but not really more than that; they're dispersed enough (I don't let more than three a day leave Cape Town, and never more than one to any particular port unless a major escorted convoy), and anything with search aircraft would be picked up early enough, that they could get out of the way in time. A 'bad' raid would be like the attempt we had three (?) weeks ago - carriers picked up so early that they turn around and slink home instead of continuing on. There are no merchants on picket duty - I prefer to have them actually moving stuff around - but rather cruiser patrols to catch surface raiders and submarines to pick up aircraft, being at the moment basically useless for other duties anyway - plus I essentially know where the Japanese fleet is in a broad sense, and it sure as hell ain't off Western Australia. Unless I'm completely off-base in my estimates, of course; but if I am completely off-base the Japanese are about to throw about five and a half divisions into the sea off the Aleutians right before the onset of winter, so that'd take the sting out of it.

The other interesting point is that it actually costs less fuel in transport to ship stuff from Cape Town to Perth than it does to ship it from San Francisco to Brisbane - the route's about 1000 miles shorter. When you figure in the distance involved in stopping at Hawaii, then Tahiti, then Tahiti, then dancing around south of Rarotonga...no comparison. I mean, you have to get stuff TO Cape Town first - but that's free, and I've already got shipping coming out of my ears, so...

Saros still hasn't, I think, quite twigged that while you can, up to a point, manipulate where the Allied player sees units planning for, the facade kinda falls flat if you use perma-restricted units, or units obviously on garrison duties, to make up the whole illusion; f.e. a bunch of units from the Phillipine and Manchurian garrisons - including one particular garrison unit that's spread over five different islands in the Phillipines in a really fantastically absurd exercise in bean-counting and a bunch of perma-restricted Manchurian units - are planning for Pearl Harbour. Completely pointless - counterproductive, even, since it's effectively a big sign saying 'Hey, I'm not actually going to do this', heh.

e: also apparently I have more than 7000 views now. You all have my condolences.



Crackaces -> RE: September 1942 (4/14/2012 7:44:09 PM)

quote:

The other interesting point is that it actually costs less fuel in transport to ship stuff from Cape Town to Perth than it does to ship it from San Francisco to Brisbane


I think total fuel costs are slightly higher than calculated as fuel must be moved from Abadan to Cape Town while SF/LA has plenty of fuel. I think still very good route; although, I have a submarine in my game off of Perth that is dodging asw and sinking xAK's at will [8|]



derp -> RE: September 1942 (4/14/2012 8:03:04 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

quote:

The other interesting point is that it actually costs less fuel in transport to ship stuff from Cape Town to Perth than it does to ship it from San Francisco to Brisbane


I think total fuel costs are slightly higher than calculated as fuel must be moved from Abadan to Cape Town while SF/LA has plenty of fuel. I think still very good route; although, I have a submarine in my game off of Perth that is dodging asw and sinking xAK's at will [8|]


It's a tradeoff; Abadan to CT is quicker but costs fuel; USA to CT is slower (caveat: past a certain point in ship speed it's actually quicker, since you can run'em at full speed with no issues, but even the fastest tankers top out at 16; I think even at that Abadan is slightly quicker) but free. Panama to CT is ideal, being both short and free, but the amount of fuel available fairly limited unless you ship more in...at which point you might as well just set things up from the US and forget about it. I have ships doing both; well, actually they go Karachi or Bombay to Cape Town now, since I have more fuel in India than I know what to do with and the offmap-onmap-offmap jump involved in Abadan has resulted in more than one convoy turning around the moment they hit the map...



derp -> RE: September 1942 (4/15/2012 5:41:48 PM)

September. 13

Mostly quiet; usual litany of submarine failures off Sakhalin etc, but those have in the main reached the point of not being worth talking about by now.

Only action really worthy of the name was raid by 200 Japanese bombers on Chittagong; damage amounted to a couple of Hudsons w/o and not much beyond that.



Captain Cruft -> RE: September 1942 (4/15/2012 7:55:42 PM)

Excellent AAR, I like the style.



derp -> RE: September 1942 (4/16/2012 12:20:37 AM)

Style's pushing it a bit, I think...

September. 14

USS Sturgeon bounces a torpedo off a Japanese destroyer off the New Hebrides; this is one of the bombardment forces returning from Niue. Interesting that they're skittering all the way back here to rearm - I would have thought it much easier to take the ammunition to Fiji. I also sent a PR Lightning over Rabaul; haven't done that for a while. Shipping in port was about 15 ships, but they've put to sea; it's like cockroaches when you shine a light on them, heh.

200 Japanese bombers raid Akyab. There is nothing there for them to shoot, blow up, bomb etc except 23rd Indian Div, which they refuse to attack; I think perhaps out of terror that I'd start bombing troops in Burma, China etc. Calcutta's reaction is to serve another round of G&Ts. The continuing diversion of Japanese bombing into trivialities suits me fine, for the moment; the division still needs some time out, with its relief still a distance away. The wisdom of relieving it is itself a little questionable; explanation later.

25 Japanese bombers attack Aust. 2/11th Armd Car Rgt, camped out in the Hamersley Ranges today much as they have been for the last several weeks. Damage came there none.

Invasion warning for the Aleutians; multiple unidentified but heavy radio transmissions 50 miles southeast of Tokyo Bay. Can't imagine what else it'd be. So:
- 18th Fighter Sqn at Adak issued with P-40K;
- All ships at sea recalled to refuel;
- 11th Air Force squadrons at Anchorage filled out to the best of my ability to do so;
- All troop shipping to the Aleutians ordered to ditch short-range escorts and get a move on in quick;
- I think, quietly, to myself, that I should probably have sorted Amchitka out a week ago.

It could, of course, be nothing. And yet...

Ship movements in the direction of Western Australia from Melbourne begin. There's a lot to move, so I think it's best if we do things gradually. Troops are more or less ready; they just need to be given ships and orders...

Indian Army will stand by ready to move at short notice. Still need six weeks to get everything I want bought out bought out, though I suppose we could go as-is...don't intend to jump before October 15th, however, to allow monsoon to end and October reinforcements to get sorted out. Wisdom of keeping 23rd Ind Div at Akyab after we go is questionable; the place isn't in itself meaningful given present conditions but so far has provided a useful punching bag for the Japanese. Given total impossibility of main Burma force evading detection for more than 1-2 days that role will fade into irrelevance. Think I will leave a light force there and move 23rd back to Cox's in a couple of weeks rather than relieving it; the latter base is downright civilised at this point and will do as well as return to the 'mainland'. The Japanese have, fortunately, so wrecked the facilities at Akyab that there is no need to guard it for the sake of denying use of airfields etc. I almost feel sorry for the place - the Japanese wrecked it then occupied it; then I wrecked it and occupied it; and now it's broken again and who knows who'll be there in a month.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/jzY2i.png[/img]

Bad sign?



derp -> RE: September 1942 (4/18/2012 2:53:26 PM)

September. 15

So, those radio transmissions steaming out of Tokyo Bay? They made 400 miles overnight - due east. No prized for guessing what that force is; certainly it would fit with my expectations for Japanese carrier use, ie distant escort - current course would bring it to the Aleutians 650 miles south of Adak in five days. USS Growler should get a look in two days if they behave as expected; USS S-30 in perhaps the same number if they don't.

USS South Dakota has joined the carrier force, which will move southwestwards a little so as to be within jumping range for any engagement, surface or aerial.
USS Preble and USS Pruitt have laid defensive minefields at Dutch Harbour, Umnak, and added to that at Adak, and will leave the area tomorrow. All three bases have minelaying-capable tenders...

13th Canadian Bde is aboard fast ships and should make Umnak in four days.
148th Inf Rgt is aboard slow ships and should make Amchitka, Adak or Umnak in three days. Options are open for that one; USN Base Force is ashore at Amchitka but...nothing more than that. We'll see. Would like to keep it as it's a rotten swamp - perfect for defense.
34th Aviation Base Force is aboard a single slow ship and should make Umnak in ten days. May have to divert and fly it in.
Rocky Mountain Ranger Bn is aboard slow ships and will make Dutch Harbour tomorrow.
177th Const Rgt is aboard slow ships and will make Cold Bay tomorrow.

No further civil shipping will be sent to the Aleutians until matters at sea are resolved unless the need is terrifically desperate, which I suspect is unlikely to come about. The last couple of months have provided large supply stockpiles at all defended bases and it will be a long time before any of them would succumb to supply exhaustion.

I remain, as ever, confused as to what this invasion is meant to accomplish and unconvinced that Tokyo has any more idea than I do. None of the forces involved would be anywhere other than Hawaii, Canada or in extremis Christmas Island if this whole thing hadn't blown up...

Tomorrow will see, weather permitting, the first major assault on the Japanese economy; 80 aircraft will attempt to attack resource facilities in northern Taiwan from Changsha, 100 aircraft will attempt to attack resource facilities in Vietnam from eastern India, and 40 aircraft will attempt to attack resource facilities in Burma from eastern India. I've cracked open two separate supply caches in China to do this; there are only two more. The expectation is that the Japanese will fail to realise that I can't really do it again in the foreseeable future, and either melt down about industrial attacks or go in for retaliatory attacks on industry in India and Australia. Neither is a particularly good thing, but it's perhaps best to get them out of the way now rather than later.

No significant opposition is expected over Vietnam. Light fighter opposition may be encountered over Burma and Taiwan; in the former some fighters will be involved on our side, so they can probably take care of themselves. In the latter case there is nothing I can do but hope for the best. The Japanese rear areas have been stripped clean of AA guns to enable front-line bases to amass enormous defenses, so aircraft can fly low without too much worry.



derp -> RE: September 1942 (4/24/2012 6:21:02 PM)

September. 16

Currently I have the flu so there will probably be a few more laughable mistakes than usual over the weekend...

A disappointing day - who didn't see that one coming? - as the only groups to fly were two with Blenheims aimed at Haiphong, one with Catalina aimed at Taihoku port and half of one with A-20 aimed at Lashio. No opposition. Some damage done - including four merchants in port set on fire - but not what might have been.

Radio Tokyo moves southeastwards today - I guess the intention is to avoid being picked up by naval search aircraft.

September. 17

Still have the flu. I wrote the other entry on Thursday...haven't been feeling very cheery, as you can imagine. At least, I think it was Thursday...everything's a little hazy.

Relatively uneventful. Japanese carriers turned the music down, so no indication of their location today except that USS Growler may have been buzzed. Very indefinite, though.

More bombing of Chihkiang. Purpose still a mystery to me. Usual 200-bomber raid from Burma today targets Chittagong; slightly more effective than usual, with some facility damage and a couple of Dutch CW-22s w/o. I...basically don't care; engineering, support and AA assets still have stuff to do elsewhere, though in a week or so the last major facility construction on the Burmese border will be complete and some of them can be redirected here for a few weeks. A P-39 squadron on airfield attack duties over Lashio also have a hot day, meeting some Oscars and shooting down two or three.



derp -> RE: September 1942 (5/1/2012 1:14:33 AM)

September. 18

The e-mail containing the turn was interesting (and also indicative of how long it's taken me to recover):

quote:

ANZAC day today. Somewhat ironically we choose to remember one of the more botched amphibious campaigns of all time. Highlights include a one man amphibious assault which only got the participant the DSO, self firing rifles and 711 of the 760 men of the NZ Wellington batallion becoming KIA/WIA in a single day.


I think someone may be feeling a little apprehensive. The question, of course, is 'what about?'...

Ok. Whether or not Growler was buzzed yesterday, she certainly was today - as was S-30, 500 miles to the east. While I don't have an exact fix, my best guess based on that is that the carriers are about 1500mi southwest of Amchitka - which is close, but not as close as I expected them to be by now. Unsure what they're playing at; have had no definite indication of troops actually sailing yet, with mixed messages as to whether key units are divided or not - some claim to be, some claim not. Everything's rather fuzzy, which I suppose is inevitable. Assume they're at sea, but can't prove it...nothing for it but to apply time.

13th Canadian Bde will unload Umnak tomorrow. 148th Inf Rgt is unloading Amchitka and should have all their motor transport off by tonight. After these guys there's just an aviation base force left to arrive, I think. There's really very little more for the Aleutians - maybe a couple of construction units in a couple of weeks, but in the main we're as secure as we can get and as winter sets in we will degenerate into just moving forces around up here. Do still have one Rgt from 37th Div available, but it's still at Christmas Island and would take a while to get it to Aleutians - perhaps one for spring.

Australia quiet. Probably, uh, not for much longer. USS Long Island has joined UK Hermes and Illustrious off Perth; so that's a 16kt carrier, a 25kt carrier and a 32kt carrier. Pity the people in charge of keeping that lot straight...current load is 50 fighters between the three, with ability to bring that up to 75 if necessary. In principle will go for Broome with just the 50, to keep a small strike ability...may regret it. We'll see.

China quiet. Also probably not for much longer; having returned, the Wuhan garrison is now immediately screaming off northwards again; believe objective is attempt to enter Xi'an by way of rural route ie west from Taiyuan and then across country. This has always been the weak link and if it's an attempt to go via Yan'an I can do nothing about it - but then that's never not been true. If it's an attmept to go via the 'southern' route from Taiyuan then it's very poorly timed - trying it now will hit 3300av, whereas trying it three weeks ago would have hit 1900. If there is a saving grace here it is that the armoured units seem in the main to have been removed from China in favour of reinforcing Burma - where they're far less use, given Indian Army has AT weapons and Chinese don't - but China still ultimately a case of sitting back and putting up with whatever Japanese do. Contemptible in every way - but such is life. Only exception to that is if Japanese dive too far away from Wuhan, in which case 6000av can hit countryside west of Changsha - ie, if they go the way I don't want them to go towards Xi'an. Whose purposes that'd serve in the long run I know not.

Also, the single Mongol cavalry Rgt that went haring off up the road to Urumqi back at the end of August is now in the open. Don't think Japanese know I know this, considering they've so far failed to turn around. Given uncontestable air superiority on our part up here they have absolutely no ability to inflict damage and will be cut off and destroyed if they keep on their present course. Am quietly going to allow them to stick their necks right out...



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