RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (Full Version)

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wpurdom -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/21/2011 2:36:21 PM)

quote:

As to CR taking a different approach. Yes but based on conversations I've had I think he'd like to be able to use tempo and failures in opponent orientation as force multipliers. That's why I give the input I do.


I'm quite sure you're right and we all enjoy your analyses. But I would suspect that CR is under three other constraints outside of the game engine.
1. It seems to be that you're 98-100% a game player in your approach to WITP as opposed to a simulator. Unless there is a home rule, I would be surprised if you saw many if any constraints on doing an operation that's possible under the game system. CR seems to be mainly a gamer rather than a simulator, but with him I think it;s more 85-15%.
2. CR just had a game collapse in an unfun way due to operating outside the expectations of his opponent. I think it can be inferred that Q-ball expected a more aggressive response meeting Japanese aggression - when he ran into a Sir Robin defense and then screwed up his response invading India - he lost interest and the game just fizzled in what was probably CR's least satisfying AAR reported game. CR knows that Chez is more of a historicist that he is, and is somewhat concerned that both that his approach be perceived as fair by Chez and that the game not collapse - as he explained long ago in the post from which this thread is now titled. The sort of action you proposed could not be done by a real military figure in a democracy - as opposed to a Napoleon. It would be like the Allies doing a snap invasion of Munda right after winning the second naval battle of Guadalcanal when it wasn't clear that the Japs wouldn't make another major effort on Guadalcanal - maybe a good idea, but not something Halsey could have done without being relieved.
3. Your approach in your AAR's often seems to operate on the premise that you have the preponderance of psych dominance of Lee over Pope or Grant over Pemberton. I suspect CR thinks it more appropriate to view his situation more like Lee v. McClellan.



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/21/2011 3:24:13 PM)

You guys amaze me.  There's a level of knowledge about this AAR that is simply amazing.  I never expect people to read everything in the AAR, and I certainly don't expect people to remember what happened six months and 42,519 entries ago.  And then I see accurate mentions of what happened at Rabaul in December '41, or in the DEI in January '42, or some lament I made long ago, and I wonder if it's a requirement that AE players have photographic memories and if I'm the only one who doesn't.

wpurdom's comments and analysis are also right on.  I am a "gamer" as opposed to a "simulator", and Steve clearly is a "simulator" as opposed to a "gamer."  He's very happy in his long match with Bradfordkay, and that game seems to bear a reasonable resemblance to what happened from 1941 to '45.  I'm pretty sure he doesn't enjoy the wide divergence from reality as seen in this game.  At the same time, I was very concerned about the prospects of an IJ auto victory in this game after coming off the game with Q-Ball.  I was (and I am) convinced that a good and aggressive IJ player can achieve auto victory.  In fact, some of the best players would have better than a 50/50 chance IMHO.  I didn't have any knowledge about Steve's ability as a player, but I was worried since I knew he could at the very least get counsel from folks like Chickenboy, Q-Ball, and others, who, even if Steve wasn't experienced, could still guide him towards an AV.  As you'll recall, my ad in the Opponent's Wanted column even specified that I was looking for a game in which AV was on the line.  I wanted to test myself and test some ideas about how to defend against it.

Thanks for all the comments and insights, folks.



Crackaces -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/21/2011 6:28:07 PM)

quote:

I was (and I am) convinced that a good and aggressive IJ player can achieve auto victory.


CR are there any AAR's out there that point to this? It seems that IJ player goes after AV, and when it fails they quit. It appears to be a very high risk adventure that if it fails the war ends early and staving off until 1946 impossible. My own thought on AV, is that a plan that holds out unitl 1946 is much more feasible than AV. Especally against someone as strong a player as yourself.



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/21/2011 6:33:53 PM)

The games in which IJ players have come closest to AV are probably Q-Ball vs. Moi and rader vs. GreyJoy.  Neither came real close, but close enough to at least catch a whiff.

I'm here to tell you though, I believe if Alfred or Nemo played as Japan in Scenario Two, they would (not might) score an auto victory against anybody that wasn't experienced.  And against a fairly experienced player, I think they might still have better than 50/50 odds.  There are a few other players who I think could achieve an auto victory.  Q-Ball would be one.

Let me put it this way. If Nemo and I were starting Scenario Two today, with Nemo as Japan, I think there would be a 75% chance of a Japanese auto victory.



Cribtop -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/21/2011 7:05:05 PM)

It's funny, Dan. I was recently engaged in an offline discussion about your AAR and brought up the fact that I believed you were operating under some of the constraints discussed in wpurdom's post above. I also brought up your advertisement for an opponent that explicitely asked to be pushed to the wall by an experienced Japanese player.

I would submit that readers remember the details of your AARs because they are very good and the wars you've fought with Miller, Q and Chez are each epic and memorable in their own way.

Then again, I DO have a photographic memory, so maybe that's it. [:D]



zuluhour -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/21/2011 9:01:59 PM)

You southern gents are so modest.[8D]



Cribtop -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/21/2011 9:09:59 PM)

I'm a Texan descended from South Carolinians. It don't get more modest than that. Two different kinds of crazy in one modest package!
[:D][:'(]



desicat -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/21/2011 11:15:31 PM)

Crackaces, If you want to hold out until 1946 you should read Rader's AAR "Taming the Bear". You will find it on page three of the AAR 's. Here is a quick quote from the thread:

"For starters, I have no idea if attacking the Soviet Union is brillant or the stupidest idea to ever hit WITP, but I've always wanted to try it. Seydlitz's AAR helped convince me that it can be done, and I think that by waiting until just after Phase I operations are complete, I can use some of the Southern Army forces in the attack (while not having to worry about having trouble securing the Southern Resource area).

My long term goal is not to crush the Soviets (which would probably be impossible), but rather simply to sieze the trans-Amur region and the Soviet ports, destroy their airforce, fleet, and pocketed armies, and establish a defensive line in Manchuria (see map).

My reasons are as follows, in increasing order of importance:

1. The Soviet Union has resources and oil located close to Japan.
2. Soviet equipment is realtively bad until 1944-45. For example, they only have BT tanks (no T-34s until 1944 or so), and a 1942 Russian infantry squad is worse than a Japanese one.
3. Soviet aircraft replacement rate is low to non-existent, and their early planes are short legged and weakly armed.
4. I believe my opponent is relatively cautious, and something like this might just force him into taking risks with his carriers that he might not othewise take (he might try to invade somewhere if he thinks I'm distracted).
5. I believe I have a window to strike a blow against them in 1942 before the western allies are prepared to counter-attack. I think this game might go the distance, and if I wait until 1945, the Soviets will come in when I am least prepared to deal with them. Vladivostock will be a dagger aimed at Japan and I will have no free troops to stem the tide of brand new Soviet equipment. In 1942, I can use air, land, and naval forces, that will not be available later on. These extra forces, in concert with the Kwangtung army, might just be enough to remove this long-term threat. Meanwhile, the KB still rules the waves, so they should be able to safeguard the empire while much of the Southern Army is tied up in the Soviet Union.
6. I feel as though I am helping out my pal Adolf, and doing something that although it would probably not have won the war historically, probably offered the Axis powers' best chance (in my opinion)."

Short of auto-victory if Japan really wants to have any hope of holding out well into 1946 then their leadership would do well to heed Rader's warning in note #5 above.



witpqs -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/22/2011 12:32:25 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Then again, I DO have a photographic memory, so maybe that's it. [:D]


Yeah - but can you plug into an HDTV and show us your pics, huh? [:D]



Cribtop -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/22/2011 1:09:42 AM)

Only if you swallow the red pill! [8D]



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/25/2011 12:46:44 PM)

9/18/42
 
DEI:  A Marine tank unit landed at Benkolen, with an Indian tank brigade about a week out.  Oosthaven forts go to level seven tomorrow.  Palembang forts are something like 7.40, so we're nearing the point where the Allies would, if necessary, wage a fight just to allow/make sure forts get to eight.  Pretty quiet in the DEI at the moment.

China:  The late Allied effort to create a fighter ambush in China didn't work - Steve pulled back his bombers at just the right moment, then caught wind of what was going on, and has since sat down most of his bombers.  Meanwhile, it takes a LONG time to extract fighters from China.  Many are rendered inoperational due to the supply situation, so getting fighters from China back to Burma and India is a PITA.  So be it.

NoPac:  Wasp is two days from reaching Kodiak to refuel.

CenPac:  Quiet around Tarawa at the moment, though the Japanese are reinforcing or resuppling Mili and Nauru.

SoPac:  Two IJN subs sank two supply xAK at Pago Pago.  Later in the day, Bettys sortied from Pago Pago.  The newly-arrived Wildcat squadron down ten of about 12, but the other two managed to sink a third xAK.



princep01 -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/25/2011 5:30:53 PM)

9/18/42??? Twilight Zone Time, right. I suspect you'ii be in pretty much full throttle attack mode out of the southern Sumatran fortress by that point.



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/25/2011 10:35:58 PM)

7/19/42 (you can't sneak a mistaken "September" date by this alert group!)
 
DEI:  An Allied fast transport (APD) TF departs Colombo tonight carrying a Marine raider battalion to Soeberet (spelling?), an island just south of Padang, Sumatra.  I should have done this months ago.  I've also paid for a small Indian engineeer unit at Bombay that will report for duty here.  Meanwhile, an odd SigInt report of a Japanese Maru carrying a recon battalion to Padang.  That port is Allied held, is in Allied controlled waters (unless the KB comes, which I don't think it is), and is a base that Japan can reach overland from Sibolga.  So I don't think Steve will actually invade Padang, but I'll keep my eyes open.

NoPac:  Wasp arrives at Kodiak Island tomorrow to refuel.  All ships are in place.  I can see the resupply/reinforcement convoys going in to Paramushiro within two weeks (allowing some time to get my land-based fighters into the right position).  Even though Steve has been bombing Para and Onne for weeks, the fields are 100% operational.  That can be attributed, I think, to the Allied subs and patrol planes flying supply there.

CenPac:  Bettys and Nells got chewed up over Tarawa.  Steve clearly wants to reclaim this territory.  I'm hoping his focus there might have allowed him to lose interest over NoPac.  We'll see.

SoPac:  Enemy ships in the vicinity of Pago Pago and Savaii Island, which is always nice to see.  The Allies are moving two newly arrived engineer units to San Diego.  They are prepping for Santa Cruz Islands - the two best of the bunch - which are still Allied dot bases.  If Steve doesn't do something to distract me in the meantime, the next Allied move will be to occupy and build these islands.  It is possible the Allies can do this surreptitiously since Japan doesn't seem to have any assets in the vincinity (Luganville is a level zero airfield and Lunga is far enough away from the front lines that it might be empty).



crsutton -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/25/2011 11:41:36 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You guys amaze me.  There's a level of knowledge about this AAR that is simply amazing.  I never expect people to read everything in the AAR, and I certainly don't expect people to remember what happened six months and 42,519 entries ago.  And then I see accurate mentions of what happened at Rabaul in December '41, or in the DEI in January '42, or some lament I made long ago, and I wonder if it's a requirement that AE players have photographic memories and if I'm the only one who doesn't.

wpurdom's comments and analysis are also right on.  I am a "gamer" as opposed to a "simulator", and Steve clearly is a "simulator" as opposed to a "gamer."  He's very happy in his long match with Bradfordkay, and that game seems to bear a reasonable resemblance to what happened from 1941 to '45.  I'm pretty sure he doesn't enjoy the wide divergence from reality as seen in this game.  At the same time, I was very concerned about the prospects of an IJ auto victory in this game after coming off the game with Q-Ball.  I was (and I am) convinced that a good and aggressive IJ player can achieve auto victory.  In fact, some of the best players would have better than a 50/50 chance IMHO.  I didn't have any knowledge about Steve's ability as a player, but I was worried since I knew he could at the very least get counsel from folks like Chickenboy, Q-Ball, and others, who, even if Steve wasn't experienced, could still guide him towards an AV.  As you'll recall, my ad in the Opponent's Wanted column even specified that I was looking for a game in which AV was on the line.  I wanted to test myself and test some ideas about how to defend against it.

Thanks for all the comments and insights, folks.


We read....because we care.[;)]



Nemo121 -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/25/2011 11:50:14 PM)

Speak for yourself crsutton. I'm just here for the giggles [:D] ( I think the new lowbrowness of the forum is much more acceptable when you view it as a post-ironic commentary on the nature of human interaction. )



obvert -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/26/2011 8:28:03 AM)

Post-irony

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Post-irony (from the Latin, post- "after"[1], and Ancient Greek εἰρωνεία eirōneía, meaning dissimulation or feigned ignorance)[2] is a term alternately used to connote a return from irony to earnestness, or more commonly, a state in which earnest and ironic intents become muddled.

Examples of post-ironic artwork include South African band Die Antwoord, and the Werner Herzog film Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans.[3]
While this term has become increasingly popular[4], the idea of post-irony is not without its detractors:

...there are a number of misconceptions about irony that are peculiar to recent times....the eighth is that "post-ironic" is an acceptable term - it is very modish to use this, as if to suggest one of three things: i) that irony has ended; ii) that postmodernism and irony are interchangeable, and can be conflated into one handy word; or iii) that we are more ironic than we used to be, and therefore need to add a prefix suggesting even greater ironic distance than irony on its own can supply. None of these things is true.
—Zoe Williams, The Guardian

----------------

I just had to look this up to find out what you mean.




zuluhour -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/26/2011 12:33:27 PM)

removed comment



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/26/2011 2:43:15 PM)

7/20/42
 
Nemo, yer talkin' above my head.

DEI:  Surprise!  Japanese carriers popped up near Christmas Island, moving west as the turn went on, chasing an Allied picket ship that continually ended up in the same hex.  Thus, the Allies got a good look at force composition, which seems to consist of CV Hiryu, CV Akagi, and CA Aoba.  We didn't catch a whiff of any other carriers, which dovetails with recent sightings of enemy carriers in force near Tarawa, plus Hiyo/Junyo recently near Pago Pago.  This new force ended up just seven hexes from Cocos Island (a level three airfield) and just 14 hexes east of the Allied carriers (Hornet, Saratoga, Lexington, and two RN CVs).  I can't be positive that this isn't a well-orchestrated trap, with the rest of the KB somehow pulled from the Pacific and trailing right behind.  But I'm 95% sure this is just Hiryu and Akagi.  Which is insanity if true.  Since Steve isn't insane, there can be one of only two explanations:  (1) It is a trap and this is actually the KB (5% chance) or (2) Steve thinks the Allied carriers moved far away (I have no idea why he would think this or how he would feel strongly enough about it to sail carriers into enemy waters.  The only other possibility:  (3) this is a subconscious effort to make an offering on the table of defeat so that he can resign the game.  (That's said in gest, but dang if this isn't an oddity). 

So, what are those CVs up to?  They might be covering an invasion of Christmas Island IO (garrisoned by a U.S. Army battalion), covering an invasion of Padang as referenced yesterday (that would be a suicide run, so unlikely), or simply patroling to test Allied strength or hit Allied shipping between Cocos and Oosthaven.  I think there's a fair chance the carriers will withdraw tomorrow.

What do I do?  Big opportunity, but at some risk.  I have to be pretty careful here - I'm missing York and Ent, which are four and six days away from finishing repairs and upgrades at Colombo.  I do, however, have their aircraft squadrons available.  So I've reconfigured deployment a bit, moving all Avengers to the carriers on site with two SBD-3 squadrons going to Christmas Island.  The biggest question is where to station the Allied CVs.  I'm leaning towards moving them east closer to Cocos Island. Then, after another day of patrols and assuming the enemy carriers are covering an invasion of Christmas Island, I'll feel better about attacking.  Following this course of action, though, my carriers will find themselves in range of the enemy force if it continues west.  That's where the risk comes in.

NoPac:  Wasp has refueld at Kodiak and will move west and then NW into the Berring Sea.  Allied transports will begin loading reinforcement RCT at Adak Island in two days.

CenPac:  Lots of enemy shipping at Mili, plus a transport/supply TF south of Ocean Island on a southwest heading as though bound for the Santa Cruz Islands.  That would be a good place for Steve to attend to, but it would be an odd direction for him to attend to it from.

SoPac:  Hyuga and Yamashiro bombard Pago Pago.  Lots of enemy shipping at nearby Savaii Island.  No sign of Yamato this time and I haven't seen Hiyo/Junyo in several weeks.

P.S.  We've already had several major engagements end in Allied victories in which Steve said, "Dang, I didn't think your carriers were here, I thought they were way over somewhere else."  I was positive he wouldn't do that again, which is one reason I'm concerned about a trap.  To be honest, if this is Hiryu and Akagi by themselves, it's just a really bad move.



GreyJoy -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/26/2011 2:47:52 PM)

Big opportunity here CR!
Considering your overall strategic situation (which is optimal) and the losses you've already inflicted him, i'd say that the prize is well worth the risk you're taking!




paullus99 -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/26/2011 2:52:41 PM)

I would recommend putting yourself in a position to strike (but as always, leave yourself an exit if you need one) - but Chaz would be an idiot to risk two fleet carriers out there exposed for a trap, since he doesn't know exactly where you are - and all you would need to do would be to get lucky, because at this point, an even exchange (2 for 2) just about ends the game, regardless of what he may have following.

Five carriers against two is certainly worth the risk, if you don't see anything coming up behind with the exception of shipping. He may suspect (mirroring his own back and forth movements to the Pacific) that you've moved your carriers into the Pacific to support your increased tempo there. If so, that is a major mistake in judgement.



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/26/2011 2:58:17 PM)

You guys are right.  The stakes here are much higher than they would first appear, and argue for two totally different approaches:

(1) Attack the enemy carriers - sink them, even losing two or three on my part, effectively ends the game.  (The game can drag out, even for years, but not in any meaningful way).

(2)  On the other hand, the Allies have to be able to defend Sumatra using every asset available.  I am much better off not risking my carriers if there is any chance that I could come out on the losing end of a carrier battle.  IE, the defense of Sumatra is my highest priority, so I shouldn't risk weakening my assets.




Nemo121 -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/26/2011 3:00:38 PM)

CR,

I was just making a joke relating to crsutton's post with a little recursive self-reference. I like dichotomy and so juxtaposing "I'm just here for giggles" with the spectre of post-irony led to a dichotomy.... Was the "I'm just here for giggles" part of the post-ironic commentary or not? Or was the "i'm here for giggles" a true representation that that's all the current level of the forum can maintain? So it was just a fun little blend of dichotomy, obfuscation and, perhaps, a reference to the post-modernist belief that the objective is not and that there should be a focus on content over form and that we see things not as they are but as we are. That was the last little sub-joke --- since I knew different people would bring their agendas and draw very different interpretations - which is why I left it purposely vague, in order to foster such interpretation.

There was also a bit of a reference to the whole. "We read because we care" being a very "modern" thing to say and my intentionally mixing up "modern" and "modernism" as a sort of farce.

Anyways, it was just a joke and a little phrase-play which made me chuckle. Nothing important. I was just in a playful mood.


As to the 2 CVs. When a man habitually makes moves which expose his forces to piecemeal defeat and he continues this pattern it is most likely it is a continuation of a pattern of inappropriate orientation and not part of some brilliant plan. I think it is what it is. And what it is is more of the same thing we've been seeing for months.

As to trading CVs:
At the moment you are close enough to the point in time when you get significant reinforcements that a trade ( 2 for 2 ) actually favours you:
E.g. Let's say you have 6 vs 6 now and in 3 months you get 3 more carriers making it 6 vs 10 ( 1 : 1.66 ratio in your favour ).
If you lose 2 and he loses 2 you go to 4 vs 4 now ( 1:1 odds, no functional change ) and in 3 months you get 3 more moving it to 4 vs 7 = 1: 1.75 in your favour.

So, swapping CVs now actually hastens the point at which the force correlation widens.... Albeit at the cost of running multiple CV-supported operations concurrently - which you shouldn't be doing right now.

lastly, you have the ability to open a couple of lethal fronts without support from CV air ( Malaysia and Borneo ). I've invaded up from Oz into the Phillipines without ANY carrier support previously. There's no reason why you cannot do the same using LBA cover.



GreyJoy -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/26/2011 3:02:52 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: paullus99

.......... because at this point, an even exchange (2 for 2) just about ends the game, regardless of what he may have following.




...i know how my words will sound...and i'm sorry to say so...but, with all due respect to your opponent, i've been thinking about this for months now...
My (bad) thought is that he has realized many months ago that he had already lost the game after the first battles and your Festung Palembang...he's a sportman and a gentleman so he didn't qui nor he gave any sign of that...but simply he has done everything he could (always masquerading it behind the constant gaming) to speed up and accelerate the "losing process" so he could end this tragedy as fast as possible.
If it'd be so, there wouldn't be anthing bad...it's like when the tennis player has lost 0-6, 0-6 the first 2 sets and he's at 1-5 in the third...he doesn't quit...he doesn't pretend to be injured or something else...he simply plays to accelerate the process...responding with "winners" (that often are unforced errors) to every single ball the oppenent sends above the net...

I ask in advance sorry for this thinking...sorry to Chez and to CR to...



Nemo121 -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/26/2011 3:08:22 PM)

Just for the record. I don't think Chez has set out to lose. Its simply a function of the play, not a function of a deeper process.



paullus99 -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/26/2011 3:09:36 PM)

CR - you should be able to position yourself to do both - again, get into a good position to strike, if it looks like that's all he's got (and if he uses those carriers to support his amphibious operation, he'll be looking in the wrong direction when your carriers hit him).

And if you need to back away, you'll be in a position to do that too.



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/26/2011 3:13:50 PM)

the situation

[image]local://upfiles/8143/006E1CCB2EC943DA85CAB9031FADAE57.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/26/2011 3:50:32 PM)

The makeup of the IJN CV TF and the course to be taken by the Allied CV TFs.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/5A552E252F534877A2E9FF1BB48D56D3.jpg[/image]



Miller -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/26/2011 5:10:46 PM)

Go for the throat. Those 2 CVs possess approx 80 strike a/c vs you're 200 plus, no contest. The only thing that could even the odds is a massed Netty strike from the northern Java bases, but I bet that will be highly unlikely.



witpqs -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/26/2011 5:52:48 PM)

Summing it all up with words from history:

"ATTACK REPEAT ATTACK"



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht var sein! (9/26/2011 5:58:51 PM)

Another oddity about this situation:  The Japanese carriers didn't launch any strikes, though Allied shipping was within range, nor do any of my TFs show detection levels.  (I didn't pay attention to the weather, but at these ranges it would be likely that something would fly at some point during the turn.)  It's almost as if these carriers were steaming "dark" into unknown waters.  Very odd indeed.



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