RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein!

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John 3rd -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/12/2012 5:20:19 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Chickenboy Ugh. I had no idea about the number of uncaptured bases Chez has left in the central PI. He's really opening himself up for a speedy Allied re-lodgement here. HOW could these bases NOT be taken??!! Once you break him in the current battle Dan just get some supplies up here and you'll cut the DEI right away from the Japanese...

Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/12/2012 5:38:15 PM)
I don't know how these bases haven't been taken. It's the great mystery of the game. But how exactly do the Allies get supply in any meaningful quantity to the Philippines? It's not like Steve wouldn't contest the effort. (Well, I suppose it's remotely possible he wouldn't, but far more likely that he would jump at the chance, and in doing so would have the larger force of carriers and land-based air). To me, the Philippines represent ripe fruit on the tree available for the picking. It's unbelieve the bases are out there, vacant or controlled by the Allies. But the fruit is in all likelihood poisoned. Mounting a major operation to move that deeply into enemy territory is asking for a major clash on terms most beneficial to Japan. So I think the Allies are better served dealing with objectives that are more important and more attainable at much less risk.

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/12/2012 5:40:02 PM)
CR, I have not read each and every page of this AAR, so I do not have a complete picture of the geography, or the Japanese surviving OOB. I also know it's early. BUT, in line with my brute force approach to stuck pickle jars and AE, I invite your attention to Miri. I know now, after 'extensively' playing the Japanese side into Feb 1942 [:)], that Miri is no slouch of a fuel source, although it is usually taken quite damaged. He has to be on fumes not having Palembang. Loss of Miri would, as Mr. Doyle Brunson, the finest Texas Hold 'Em player in history, says 'put him to the test for all of his chips.' Miri is not a long stretch forward from your current lines. If you have to risk your carriers to do it (not sure you do, at least not all of them) you will soon have many more, but the war could be over by then. By 1943 he begins to get much better planes and a new wave of low-mix combatants. Waiting might be 'safer' and it might not be. I know you can win in 1943, 44, 45, or 46. But I also think, given that extraordinary map you posted, you can win now if you loosen your grip a bit and bet on the river card. At minimum he has to respond to a Miri landing--he has to--and you get another, near-future chance to maul him.

Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/12/2012 5:43:19 PM)
Miri or Balikpapan will be the next major objective. The Allies will feint toward one while the "real thing" moves towards the other. The KB may be caught a bit out of position since it has to go around northern Borneo to move from one to the other - a successful feint won't mean a great deal of time, but it should buy some.

Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/12/2012 5:46:43 PM)
By the way, SigInt suggest that Steve is reinforcing Miri and Brunei pretty quickly. I think Beufort, just to the north, is vacant. (111th Chindit is prepping for that base.) I haven't had any SigInt regarding Banjermasin, Balikpapan or Samarinda in months. I suspect, but I'm not positive, that they are lightly held. I am not going to recon any time soon as I don't want to arouse Steve's attention. At this point, I would think a major feint towards Miri would be just what Steve is expecting. He'd jump all over it. That would create a nice opening to then move on the Balikpapan complex.

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/12/2012 5:58:08 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Canoerebel Miri or Balikpapan will be the next major objective. The Allies will feint toward one while the "real thing" moves towards the other. The KB may be caught a bit out of position since it has to go around northern Borneo to move from one to the other - a successful feint won't mean a great deal of time, but it should buy some. Balikpapan is good too, but in my experience a bit more 'air intense' given the bases on Java, Celebes, Timor, and the like. The strait there is also a huge choke point for subs to hunt. Depending on what (and where) he has naval-wise in the PI Balikpapan can be a day's sail closer for him, with multiple routes out of the PI itself (Cebu, Davao, etc.) Miri is closer to Manila I think, without checking. Miri is open to the sea on 180 degrees of the compass, and the daughter bases on north Borneo are relatively small air-wise. Strikes due north from the larger bases are at long range. That said, he's probably getting a bigger volume of POL out of Balikpapan as his transit routes to the HI are not as exposed. FWIW, when I took Miri in my game it had 180 damage to the refineries, and about 130 to the Oil. That's a lot of supply shipped in to fix things up. His damage, like mine, would be random, but he might have only recently gotten anything useful out of Miri. You could cut its head off early and really frustrate him. I haven't taken Balikpapan yet, so I can't speak to its possible condition.

witpqs -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/12/2012 6:08:12 PM)
IIRC Miri begins the game with Oil 50% damaged - 150(150).

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/12/2012 6:16:16 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: witpqs IIRC Miri begins the game with Oil 50% damaged - 150(150). Ah, OK. I was extrapolating from its condition on Feb 5. Oil (106)194. Refineries (112)188. I don't think I've gotten a ship's worth of anything out yet since the Allies are raiding from Singers still. But I've shipped in a whole lot of supplies.

Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/12/2012 6:20:23 PM)
In this game, Miri is about 150 (150). Steve took it belatedly and hasn't repaired any of the damage. That's another in the list of reasons oil should be his Achilles Heel. As for the Philippines, Cebu is still an Allied base. [X(]

BBfanboy -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/12/2012 7:21:46 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Canoerebel Oil is the objective in 1943, not territory. I recognize that may seem heresy, and in most games it would be. As Q-Ball and I and many others have stated, there are two Allied objectives in AE: choking off resources and closing on Japan to engage in strategic bombing. In many games, the latter is the most important or viable objective. So, if this was a "normal" game, I'd be very interested in jumping all over the Philippines even if doing so in early 1943 presented sizeable risks. But in this game chocking off resources is paramount. Japan only has a few major oil-producing bases in the DEI. With the Allies in possession of Palembang and Djambi since the start fo the war, with Magwe haven fallen in early 1942, and with Japan's hold on Medan so tenuous, the Allies should be able to strangle Japan's economy. The only major oil bases in Japanese hands are Miri, Balikpapan, Tarakan and Soerabaja. Those are my targets in early 1943. Taking southern Malaya and western Sumatra is also important, primarily to open up a secure route of passage for Allies shipping into the theater (the Sunda Straight is narrow and somewhat dangerous given enemy subs and the presence of big enemy bases nearby). So now you are an Oil Man, eh! Saw a movie about oil men a couple of years ago. What was the name of it? ... Oh yeah - There Will Be Blood ! Come to think of it that describes the action in the DEI for some time now! [sm=00000622.gif]

BBfanboy -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/12/2012 7:31:51 PM)
Bullwinkle, CR has summarized losses and posted maps that tell the story just a few pages back. The sticky point is that KB is still very strong and the allied carriers would not be wise to challenge yet. Add to that the fact that KB is staying under Nettie cover and you see why CR is not lunging forward. Both sides have had high BB and CA/CL losses too. I think Essex doesn't show until mid-1943 so I have to agree with Canoerebel's feint and deek and "hit him where he ain't" approach.

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/12/2012 8:54:04 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: BBfanboy Bullwinkle, CR has summarized losses and posted maps that tell the story just a few pages back. The sticky point is that KB is still very strong and the allied carriers would not be wise to challenge yet. Add to that the fact that KB is staying under Nettie cover and you see why CR is not lunging forward. Both sides have had high BB and CA/CL losses too. I think Essex doesn't show until mid-1943 so I have to agree with Canoerebel's feint and deek and "hit him where he ain't" approach. CR could trade every carrier he has for two of the KB and come out ahead. The KB is not the fearsome thing it is in December 1941, and it doesn't grow better as fast as the USN's carriers do. CR has good pilots afloat and ashore, a lot of good planes, and long-range TBs now. He also has his own land-bases pretty close to Miri, or will in a few turns. Chez has lost a LOT of his cruisers, and some BBs. Miri is not a long-bomb, Hail Mary move. It's a next step, but a strategically decisive one. If he loses it and never had Palembang he's done. I would bet that already he's having to decide between planes and ships, fuel-wise. And I've been shocked at how stiff the pilot tax is for the Japanese. In Feb 1942 for me it's already almost 40,000 HI/month. His fuel situation has to be hit, and hit, and hit. If Chez brings surface TFs to Miri, good. He has about 1 to 2 good responses left with anything bigger than a DD. If he brings the KB that's a chance for CR to end the war right there. CR can win, and he can't lose, if he goes for either Miri or Balikpapan. If Chez sank every Allied CV (and I'm not saying CR should bring them all) all he does is push his loss off six months more. He has mis-played the strategic economy so badly to date at this point it's unrecoverable. If it were me I'd go for the win now. Take Miri and then leapfrog a strong force into the southern PI, then turn south and take or ruin Balikpapan. (Ruin works too if fuel-denial is the aim.) But CR is more cautious than I am.

Crackaces -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/12/2012 9:23:13 PM)
quote: Mr. Doyle Brunson, the finest Texas Hold 'Em player in history... [:-] I would contest that..as would most of the poker world who played during that era would contend ... Stu Unger by far was the finest Texas Hold 'Em player in history ... many are quoted to back that statement up in the book One of a Kind by Nolan Dalla ... http://books.google.com/books?id=d3jmOUuPiE4C&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false Given today's "all in bashes" involving thousands of players . Stu's feat will never be repeated .. you had to be there to appricate pure poker at its best ...may he rest in peace .. [:(] Ok back to the AAR ...

paullus99 -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/12/2012 9:55:32 PM)
The KB isn't nearly as fearsome as it could have been. If I recollect, Chaz as lost at least 3 CVLs & 2 CVs for none on CR's side. He's already got parity or even a slim superiority with the Brit Carriers involved.

Chickenboy -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/12/2012 11:52:39 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58 quote: ORIGINAL: BBfanboy Bullwinkle, CR has summarized losses and posted maps that tell the story just a few pages back. The sticky point is that KB is still very strong and the allied carriers would not be wise to challenge yet. Add to that the fact that KB is staying under Nettie cover and you see why CR is not lunging forward. Both sides have had high BB and CA/CL losses too. I think Essex doesn't show until mid-1943 so I have to agree with Canoerebel's feint and deek and "hit him where he ain't" approach. CR could trade every carrier he has for two of the KB and come out ahead. The KB is not the fearsome thing it is in December 1941, and it doesn't grow better as fast as the USN's carriers do. CR has good pilots afloat and ashore, a lot of good planes, and long-range TBs now. He also has his own land-bases pretty close to Miri, or will in a few turns. Chez has lost a LOT of his cruisers, and some BBs. Miri is not a long-bomb, Hail Mary move. It's a next step, but a strategically decisive one. If he loses it and never had Palembang he's done. I would bet that already he's having to decide between planes and ships, fuel-wise. And I've been shocked at how stiff the pilot tax is for the Japanese. In Feb 1942 for me it's already almost 40,000 HI/month. His fuel situation has to be hit, and hit, and hit. If Chez brings surface TFs to Miri, good. He has about 1 to 2 good responses left with anything bigger than a DD. If he brings the KB that's a chance for CR to end the war right there. CR can win, and he can't lose, if he goes for either Miri or Balikpapan. If Chez sank every Allied CV (and I'm not saying CR should bring them all) all he does is push his loss off six months more. He has mis-played the strategic economy so badly to date at this point it's unrecoverable. If it were me I'd go for the win now. Take Miri and then leapfrog a strong force into the southern PI, then turn south and take or ruin Balikpapan. (Ruin works too if fuel-denial is the aim.) But CR is more cautious than I am. Nothing in your post is disagreeable, Bull. But CR has politely demurred on 'breaking' Chez's back in this game for some time now. Many good suggestions have been raised on ways to accomplish this, but CR is moving slowly in deference to his opponent's unusual approach to gameplay rather than a lack of options how to kill him quickly.

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/12/2012 11:54:59 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: paullus99 The KB isn't nearly as fearsome as it could have been. If I recollect, Chaz as lost at least 3 CVLs & 2 CVs for none on CR's side. He's already got parity or even a slim superiority with the Brit Carriers involved. Even without those losses my point is that KB Fear still is maxed out in this forum. CR has five USN fleet carriers I believe, plus the RN's, plus whatever CVEs he can scrape up. Against the PH six that is a stand-up fight with LBA a key variable. Once Sinkwhatchamacallit is his CR is fine with going as far as Miri to destroy the Japanese economy. Also, geographically, if the KB is south it can't come around the west side of Borneo, and the Makassar Strait ought to be a death-trap of USN subs with semi-working fish, so it would need to run far east to hook in past Jollo et al. Not fast. CR could be ashore at Miri more or less before it got there if he wanted to avoid battle.

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/13/2012 12:01:17 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Crackaces quote: Mr. Doyle Brunson, the finest Texas Hold 'Em player in history... [:-] I would contest that..as would most of the poker world who played during that era would contend ... Stu Unger by far was the finest Texas Hold 'Em player in history ... many are quoted to back that statement up in the book One of a Kind by Nolan Dalla ... http://books.google.com/books?id=d3jmOUuPiE4C&printsec=frontcover#v=onepage&q&f=false Given today's "all in bashes" involving thousands of players . Stu's feat will never be repeated .. you had to be there to appricate pure poker at its best ...may he rest in peace .. [:(] Ok back to the AAR ... From what I know of him Unger is right up there, but he's dead, and Doyle is still playing. Brunson developed much of the theory of TexHoldE, wrote books about it, and won many, many championships in both the old "concentrated" days and in the newer mass media, mass player tournaments. The poker world of the 70s was a wholly different environment than today and Brunson excelled in both. He's slowed by age now, and there are younger, pure-math players who may make fewer mistakes, but IMO many of them are not pure poker players like Brunson and Unger. There's more to the game than odds.

vettim89 -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/13/2012 12:02:57 AM)
quote: Once Sinkwhatchamacallit is his CR is fine with going as far as Miri to destroy the Japanese economy. I resemble that remark. Never can keep all those stupid DEI bases straight. A lodgement on NE Borneo will allow 4Es to crunch the ports at Miri, Brunei, and Balikpapan to crap. Even without Strategic Bombing, CR can eliminate those bases as sources of fuel/oil by preventing loading

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/13/2012 12:11:52 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Chickenboy Nothing in your post is disagreeable, Bull. But CR has politely demurred on 'breaking' Chez's back in this game for some time now. Many good suggestions have been raised on ways to accomplish this, but CR is moving slowly in deference to his opponent's unusual approach to gameplay rather than a lack of options how to kill him quickly. "Certainly the game is rigged. Don’t let that stop you; if you don’t bet, you can’t win." "Always listen to experts. They’ll tell you what can’t be done and why. Then do it!" "Your enemy is never a villain in his own eyes. Keep this in mind; it may offer a way to make him your friend. If not, you can kill him without hate--and quickly." "When the need arises--and it does--you must be able too shoot your own dog. Don’t farm it out--that doesn’t make it nicer, it makes it worse." "Place your clothes and weapons where you can find them in the dark." "People who go broke in a big way never miss any meals. It is the poor jerk who is shy half a slug who must tighten his belt." "There is no such thing as ‘‘Social Gambling." Either you are there to cut the other bloke's heart out and eat it--or you’re a sucker. If you don’t like this choice--don’t gamble." "Beware of altrusim. It is based on self-deception, the root of all evil. If tempted by something that feels “altruistic” examine your motives and root out that self-deception. Then, if you still want to do it, wallow in it!" From "The Notebooks of Lazarus Long"

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/13/2012 12:15:00 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: vettim89 quote: Once Sinkwhatchamacallit is his CR is fine with going as far as Miri to destroy the Japanese economy. I resemble that remark. Never can keep all those stupid DEI bases straight. A lodgement on NE Borneo will allow 4Es to crunch the ports at Miri, Brunei, and Balikpapan to crap. Even without Strategic Bombing, CR can eliminate those bases as sources of fuel/oil by preventing loading I thought they had an HR about strat bombing before 1944? Re names: there are some places on the map where I have a private, in-my-head name I use rather than trying to sort out the real. "Beeble-bo-bub" is a major Japanese fleet base near Palau . . .

witpqs -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/13/2012 12:17:21 AM)
[:D]

Chickenboy -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/13/2012 12:25:46 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58 "Your enemy is never a villain in his own eyes. Keep this in mind; it may offer a way to make him your friend. If not, you can kill him without hate--and quickly." Interesting quotes, except the above which is, IRL, bunk. I've read several reports by USAA trainers and command officers to the contrary. They expressed disdain for the lack of visceral hate by the typical doughboy facing the Germans as a problem for motivation. No one wanted to get at the Germans quite the same way that they wanted to get at the Japanese. Race-based animus, however distasteful, served a purpose in the Second World War for American troops. While I'm glad to live on the backside of that racism curve, I don't want to get out the PC 'white'wash and forget what made men fight then. ...And that is a MAJOR deviation from the AAR. Sorry about that Canoerebel. [sm=00000958.gif]

zuluhour -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/13/2012 12:25:57 AM)
quote: "Beeble-bo-bub" is a major Japanese fleet base near Palau The island was obviously named by a sot.

vettim89 -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/13/2012 1:13:19 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58 quote: ORIGINAL: vettim89 quote: Once Sinkwhatchamacallit is his CR is fine with going as far as Miri to destroy the Japanese economy. I resemble that remark. Never can keep all those stupid DEI bases straight. A lodgement on NE Borneo will allow 4Es to crunch the ports at Miri, Brunei, and Balikpapan to crap. Even without Strategic Bombing, CR can eliminate those bases as sources of fuel/oil by preventing loading I thought they had an HR about strat bombing before 1944? Re names: there are some places on the map where I have a private, in-my-head name I use rather than trying to sort out the real. "Beeble-bo-bub" is a major Japanese fleet base near Palau . . . That was why I said CR could use port strike. A damaged port loads at much lower rates; ergo, while CR can't bomb the oil and refinery centers, he can make sure their products have a very difficult time leaving. BTW, I love Beeble-bo-bub

princep01 -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/13/2012 1:22:48 AM)
Bullwinkle, I have to say, I admire your AE style, sir. By nature, I am relatively conservative and on the cautious side of neutral, but in the circumstances prevailing herein, it is clear a relatively quick kill is obtainable without inordinate risks. Personally, I do not favor committing CVs into the confined waters of the DEI around Borneo, on either side and with either side, but, what you say is shiningly, glaringly, inalterably true. CR has many options on how to perfect the killing blow(s), but I read your suggestion as the sword to the heart approach. Over the next six months, Miri and Balikpapan can easily be in CR's hands.....and Japan laid prostrate on the alter of oil. Well said....for a Moose.

HansBolter -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/13/2012 1:26:38 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58 quote: ORIGINAL: Chickenboy Nothing in your post is disagreeable, Bull. But CR has politely demurred on 'breaking' Chez's back in this game for some time now. Many good suggestions have been raised on ways to accomplish this, but CR is moving slowly in deference to his opponent's unusual approach to gameplay rather than a lack of options how to kill him quickly. "Certainly the game is rigged. Don’t let that stop you; if you don’t bet, you can’t win." "Always listen to experts. They’ll tell you what can’t be done and why. Then do it!" "Your enemy is never a villain in his own eyes. Keep this in mind; it may offer a way to make him your friend. If not, you can kill him without hate--and quickly." "When the need arises--and it does--you must be able too shoot your own dog. Don’t farm it out--that doesn’t make it nicer, it makes it worse." "Place your clothes and weapons where you can find them in the dark." "People who go broke in a big way never miss any meals. It is the poor jerk who is shy half a slug who must tighten his belt." "There is no such thing as ‘‘Social Gambling." Either you are there to cut the other bloke's heart out and eat it--or you’re a sucker. If you don’t like this choice--don’t gamble." "Beware of altrusim. It is based on self-deception, the root of all evil. If tempted by something that feels “altruistic” examine your motives and root out that self-deception. Then, if you still want to do it, wallow in it!" From "The Notebooks of Lazarus Long" As a youngster Heinlein was my favorite author. I read every book he ever published. "Never appeal to a man's better nature, he may not have one. Appeal insted to his self interest"

Chickenboy -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/13/2012 1:53:35 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: princep01 CR has many options on how to perfect the killing blow(s), but I read your suggestion as the sword to the heart approach. Over the next six months, Miri and Balikpapan can easily be in CR's hands.....and Japan laid prostrate on the alter of oil. I cannot envision a way that any fuel or oil from anywhere in the DEI could be shipped back to the home islands if it's bombed enroute. N. Borneo or Palawan, combined with Cebu in the Central Philipines combines with Leyte/Samar east of there forms an impenetrable barrier over any oil shipments through the region. Morotai or Palau / Bobble-do-rag would complete the eastern border of the 'no ship' zone. CR's still 1.5 years from kamikaze enablement, so there's really no downside to getting as high up the Philipine chain. I'd do this in preference to landing directly on those respective oil sources. Reinforcing already held islands in the Philipines is essentially a zero cost option to this opportunity. This would be my preference-accomplish the strategic goal at zero cost. CR: Are you morally opposed to sending a sacrificial xAK to Cebu with supply? It could help get those Philippine forces / whatever is alive there still in fighting shape again.

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/13/2012 1:28:36 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: vettim89 That was why I said CR could use port strike. A damaged port loads at much lower rates; ergo, while CR can't bomb the oil and refinery centers, he can make sure their products have a very difficult time leaving. Ah, I missed "port." I was focused on strat bombing in the next line. You are correct, although if he can bomb ports from Sink. he can bomb loading TFs too. Either way, Miri is closed. I just think taking the darn place saves a lot of wear and tear on the air forces.

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/13/2012 1:29:28 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: vettim89 BTW, I love Beeble-bo-bub Then you might also enjoy its brotiher in the southern PI: ""Bojangles."

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/13/2012 1:33:59 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: princep01 Bullwinkle, I have to say, I admire your AE style, sir. By nature, I am relatively conservative and on the cautious side of neutral, but in the circumstances prevailing herein, it is clear a relatively quick kill is obtainable without inordinate risks. Personally, I do not favor committing CVs into the confined waters of the DEI around Borneo, on either side and with either side, but, what you say is shiningly, glaringly, inalterably true. CR has many options on how to perfect the killing blow(s), but I read your suggestion as the sword to the heart approach. Over the next six months, Miri and Balikpapan can easily be in CR's hands.....and Japan laid prostrate on the alter of oil. Well said....for a Moose. ARRRRROOOOOO!!!! [:)] The fear of losing CVs in the DEI is misplaced IMO, as it is rarely needful to use any there. The LBA bases are too numerous and close. CVs are mandatory in a mid-Pac strategy as historically, but an island-hopping campaign as CR is engaged in here does not need them. It might be useful to bloody the KB, and the DEI is poisonous for it as well as the USN, but not absolutely needed. As I said above, the DEI also is a maze of approach routes hampered by straits, end-arounds, shallows, potential minefields, and reefs. By comparison the way into Miri is an interstate highway.

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