RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (Full Version)

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witpqs -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/19/2012 4:49:12 PM)

I suspect that Chez, being largely away from the forum for a while, didn't get all the info on some of the finer points regarding TFs and combat. [:(]



Capt. Harlock -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/20/2012 2:23:26 AM)

quote:

BB Washington sank, victim of a series of big-caliber hits from the Japanese BBs.


Intriguing that Kirishima helped sink Washington, in reverse of what happened historically. Do you have any air assets capable of reaching the retreating IJN ships?



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/20/2012 2:28:09 AM)

I have SBDs posted at Billiton and Pontianak, but I strongly suspect that none of my bombers will reach out to tickle the damaged ships.  I think they'll live or die based upon the quality of their damage control.  They are a long way from the nearest decent ports - Cam Ranh Bay, Saigon or Manila.



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/20/2012 6:01:07 PM)

12/03/42
 
Borneo:  SBDs get a crack at Hiei and some merchant vessels, which unaccountably anchored at Kuching without the benefit of CAP.  Two or three xAP took damage, but no hits on Hiei.  Three SeaBee units are ashore now - two at Singkawang and one at Pontianak that will head over to Sambas.  An ACM and a big minelayer are en route to Singk.  The airfield is up and running with 42 aviation support and two fighter units.  The Allies are weighing weather to mount a quick operation to reclaim vulnerable Kuching.  In the meantime, combat TFs will attempt to blockade that port.  Very soon now, the Allies will air transport some base force personnel and infantry to vacant Sampit on the southeastern coast of this island.  Recon flights flew over three bases in NE Borneo to get Steve to thinking "that's next."  Things look very good down here.

Singkep:  Still no attacks by Japan, which has 370 AV against 150 for the Allies.  I don't want to lose this base now, so the airlift will continue.

Sumatra:  I've begun reorganizing units, changing prep and preparing to consolidate a couple of Aussie and Brit brigades into divisions.  They are prepping for Balikpapan.  So the big Allied garrisons on Sumatra are beginning to transition to offensive roles.

Malaya:  Three USN carriers are at sea, making their way from Colombo to a point south of Sumatra where they can retrieve the few fighter and torpedo squadrons that were committed to land-based activity while the CVs where in the yards.  The transport TF carrying 26th Indian Div. and an AA unit are in position SW of the Andaman Islands.  Transports and combat units are gathering at Madras.  In a week or so, the Allies will have enough PP to buy out a handful of small armored units.  Recon shows Phuket and Victoria Point vacant.  The plan is to invade the latter and then use the armored units to quickly bisect the peninsula and move on  the bases to either side of Victoria Point.  D-Day might be two weeks off.   Victoria Point by Christmas! is the new cry.

NoPac:  Quiet.

SWPac:  The big transport TF carrying garrison troops to Boela has just passed Horn Island.  No signs of enemy detection of the activity taking place at Saumlaki and Taberfane.



Capt. Harlock -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/20/2012 8:36:09 PM)

quote:

SBDs get a crack at Hiei and some merchant vessels, which unaccountably anchored at Kuching without the benefit of CAP.


Once again, I really want to know what in the name of Sun Tzu Chez could be thinking![&:]



paullus99 -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/20/2012 8:47:20 PM)

I hope he decides to move her (though maybe accumulated damage was too high), because sacrificing some DBs for a BB is more than worth the price.



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/20/2012 8:52:28 PM)

Along those lines, Capt. Harlock, I sent this email to Chez yesterday to query him about his "just one day too late" email of the day before:
 
My email to Chez:  What do you mean abuot "one more turn"? When I saw your note to that effect I thought you were signaling that my attack at Singkawang had occurred one day too late - that your reinforcements had arrived. I was relieved that wasn't the case, but it left me wondering what you were referring to.

Chez's Reply:  I meant that I needed one more turn to get my troops ashore to defend Singkawang. Had I gotten there a turn earlier or you a turn later, I would have been able to land a full division and it would have been very doubtful that you could have then dislodged them.
 
He's right, I never would have taken Singkawang had he dropped a division there, but I just can't figure out what he's thinking.  In the first place, Allied combat TFs had been blockading Singkawang for a week or two, so it wasn't a case of my ships "just arriving."  More importantly, the Allied move on Singkawang wasn't sudden.  It took the Allied army nine or ten days to make the journey, and the threat to Singkawang was apparent weeks and months ago.  I can't understand why such a critical post was left underdefended for so long.

I may ask Chez a few questions along these lines in my email back to him tonight.  I'm trying to get a grip on what his thought processes are in the game.  That, in turn, will help me approach him with peace terms at the end of this month (assuming that the wheels don't come off for the Allies in the meantime).




JeffroK -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/20/2012 9:56:47 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

quote:

SBDs get a crack at Hiei and some merchant vessels, which unaccountably anchored at Kuching without the benefit of CAP.


Once again, I really want to know what in the name of Sun Tzu Chez could be thinking![&:]


Lots of flot damage and he considered it too dangerous to sail to a safe port, plus he just captured Kuching, maybe no AV to support CAP. (Though in a pinch, if you have an airfield you dont need AV support, for a day or 2 at least!!!)



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/20/2012 10:04:44 PM)

Hiei wasn't damaged in the engagement.  Neither was Kongo.  It was Kirishima and Nagato that suffered "heavy fires/heavy damage."  (I suspect, but I'm not yet certain, that one of the two went under and the other is making very slow steam towards Cam Ranh Bay - I have some subs vectored to patrol that line of hexes).

I think Hiei is/was still embedded in that transport TF, which he ordered to retire to Kuching after the big battle at Singkawang.



JeffroK -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/21/2012 12:16:20 AM)

I'll give up trying to guess Chez's reasons, It doesnt make any sense!



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/21/2012 3:56:19 AM)


Here's Chez's reply to my questions.  Very interesting and I appreciate his candor (though he's giving away too much info).  It looks like the Allied moves into Borneo prove the old addage that a good offensive can be the best defense. Canoe Email to Chez:  Allied combat TFs had been patrolling Singkawang for a couple of weeks, so I don't think it was that close (though your transport TF was large enough and powerful enough that it almost forced it's way through to deliver the troops despite the "blockade").  Wasn't the move on Singkawang apparent for a long time? I was expecting you to reinforce weeks ago or even months ago.  Chez Reply:  I initially thought that you were just securing your flank because I seldom detected any significant transport shippng. By the time I could see that you were ernestly moving that direction, countering wasn't all that easy as I was in the midst of my own operation.I gambled that I could launch mine which would cause you to stop or at least reevaluate.   I had a 2-part operation that was just about to jump off on a major push towards Palembang. Singkep and Muntok and were early stages in that plan.  Ships were then to reload troops and proceed to Palembang. Your destruction of a major portion of the troops and ships assigned to Muntok stopped that move dead in its tracks. The second part involved launching an invasion into SW Sumatra from Java. I had to redirect some of those ships and troops towards NW Borneo to counter your moves towards Singkawang. I couldn't risk steaming up the west coast of Borneo so I had to direct them around Borneo. That took a long time. That's why I said it was a case of being a turn too late. 

As far as your blockade went, I had no idea that you were sending warships to Singkawang on a regular basis until you ambushed the fast transport convoy. That cost me the 2 construction units plus infantry I had planned on reinforcing with. That's why I put such a heavy escort for the TF that carried the division.



Chickenboy -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/21/2012 4:38:15 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
I suspect, but I'm not yet certain, that one of the two went under and the other is making very slow steam towards Cam Ranh Bay

Any Jake float planes inexplicably "destroyed on field" this turn?



JeffroK -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/21/2012 5:01:18 AM)

Das darf nicht wahr sein!



obvert -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/21/2012 10:02:06 AM)

Wow. Holy intel! So he is/was actually contemplating a move on Palembang in several stages?! At least that shows some gumption, but how about taking care of the rear, and why now after almost a year of you fortifying Sumatra?

Ok. I'll stop asking questions now. There are too many to ask.

Does this info change anything in terms of you moving toward asking for a peace negotiation?



paullus99 -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/21/2012 10:32:53 AM)

I really hope this continues, just to catch of glimpse of the carnage.



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/21/2012 8:43:07 PM)

12/4/42
 
Chickenboy:  No Jakes reported missing.  Something like 14 Petes were reported destroyed on the ground on the day of the battle - would that be CS Chiyoda going under?  Patrols are still reporting one "BC" retiring towards Cam Ranh Bay in a straight line at low speed.  One of my subs ended up in the same hex this turn, but didn't engage.  It is very possible that both IJN battleships survived that battle, though here's hoping the damage proves mortal to both.

DEI:  Things quited down a bit today. Allied combat TFs patrolled Singkep without incident (the third such cruise, none of which have encountered enemy shipping; we're on alternating schedules it would seem).  An Allied cruiser TF was supposed to hit enemy shipping at Kuching, but is taking a roundabout course and won't arrive until tonight.  Enemy troops are coming ashore in big numbers at Kuching - probably including the division Steve referred to in his emails.  I'd rather not get tied down to Kuching at this point, so I'll look for easier pickings elsewhere.  SBDs from Billiton did damage one IJ xAP at Kuching.

Malaya:  The Allies continue to shift ships around in preparation for the Malaya invasion.  D-Day should be in two weeks or thereabouts.  Victoria Point by Christmas!

Burma:  The Allies got two high-end 1:1 attacks at Pegu and in the jungle east of Prome.  The Allies will try again tomorrow.  Success at either or both means the Allies can move on Rangoon, which I think is woefully under-defended (the port has 90% damage, which suggests to me partisan attacks due to an insufficient garrison, since the Allies haven't bombed the port).

Peace Feeler Prospects:  Assuming the wheels don't come off for the Allies in the meantime, I do intend to approach Steve at the end of 1942 with an offer to halt the game if he feels like things are rather hopeless for him.  He's fighting now, so he may well decline.  But if the Allies add to the Singkawang by getting a strong lodgement in Malaya, besiege Rangoon, and insert garrison forces at Boela and Morati, all by the end of the month....well, that would be stunning enough to warrant peace.



paullus99 -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/21/2012 9:47:06 PM)

If you pull that off, with Chaz committing to a campaign on Sumatra, it would only be to put his head in the noose......



Chickenboy -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/21/2012 11:23:42 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

12/4/42
 
Chickenboy:  No Jakes reported missing.  Something like 14 Petes were reported destroyed on the ground on the day of the battle - would that be CS Chiyoda going under? 


Yeah. That's the most likely explanation. That and-due to PDU off and inexplicable inattention-that he didn't replace his Petes with Jakes as he should have on a CS.



BBfanboy -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/22/2012 12:40:39 AM)

A lot of the things he has missed or done badly seem to be the result of foggy thinking - the kind brought on by long-term fatigue. Is he still doing the work of three people at his nursing job? If so, I think it is only right to close out the game at the end of December because it is no fun winning against a guy who is half asleep [didn't Yamamoto say something like that after his staff cheered about the Pearl Harbour results?].
Kudos to him for still putting in the effort.



JeffroK -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/22/2012 1:08:03 AM)

I hope Chez decides to continue, for all we know he might have a plan that makes CR's next foray a disaster (There, dreaming again!.)

For all the comments you read about "Opponents who cut and run when behind" it would be as annoying to have one that says "I'm better than you, I'll find a better opponent"

My understanding is CR hasnt had any takers for another game, maybe this is the best he can get.[:'(]



princep01 -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/22/2012 2:43:14 AM)

I'm with JeffK on the peace feeler. If you are having fun and Chez seems to be having fun, then I wouldn't even suggest it. If you do, I'd approach it from the view of "Chez, are you still having fun in our game? I know you are very busy. Let me know if you need to take a break or even terminate the game". If he says indicates it is still fun and wants to go on, I'd just drop it there.

The last two (game) weeks have been more interesting than the past three (game) months. So, I'd say he is still having fun and is now at least trying to resist your opening advances. Maybe Chez is just naturally likes being playing defense.



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/22/2012 4:35:49 AM)

That's good counsel, gents. I won't present a peace feeler unless Chez first invites one.

Besides, this is a test game of sorts. I think we'll find out if it is possible to "starve Japan to death." If it doesn't happen in this game, I can't imagine that it would be possible in Scneario Two.

...and I wish Chez had carried through with the invasion of Sumatra. I don't think he would have had a good shot at winning. I think it would be Pickett's Charge with Armistead reaching the copse of trees - in the form of Benkolen - but the Allied position is too strong now, with too many assets available.




JeffroK -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/22/2012 4:56:35 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

That's good counsel, gents. I won't present a peace feeler unless Chez first invites one.

Besides, this is a test game of sorts. I think we'll find out if it is possible to "starve Japan to death." If it doesn't happen in this game, I can't imagine that it would be possible in Scneario Two.

...and I wish Chez had carried through with the invasion of Sumatra. I don't think he would have had a good shot at winning. I think it would be Pickett's Charge with Armistead reaching the copse of trees - in the form of Benkolen - but the Allied position is too strong now, with too many assets available.



He now has to defend in depth, as you mentioned earlier Singkawang is a solid shoulder that opens out the South China Sea.

In addition to your plans for Borneo, it opens up the Eastern Malay Peninsula which has a couple of ripe targets in Mersing, Kuantan & Kota Bharu. Gives you a view at Indo China with Soc Trang & the Cambodian bases AND is a step towards The Phillipines.

This means he has to get at least a brigade into a dozen or more targets, I would only be happy with 2 Division equivalents to stop an Allied assualt plus dig in at all points.

The problem with all this is that you are about to unzip the Western Malay Peninsula which has just as many bases to target!



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/22/2012 4:55:40 PM)

12/5/42
 
Just a very good day for the Allies as things continue to come together.

Borneo:  Two Allied combat TFs tangle with a very large IJN destroyer TF at Kuching.  Two Allied DDs were set afire, two IJN destroyers went down and three others were set afire.  SBDs missed Hiei at Kuching again - and once again she was not protected by CAP.  I'll try some Avengers out of Billiton next, though I don't think they'll be able to carry torps.  Mines laid at Singkawang wtih an ACM present.  The airfield is fully operational with 90 air support.  BB Kirishima just made Cam Ranh Bay in heavily damaged state - and that port is just within range of B-24s out of Singk.  So we'll take a crack at that tomorrow.  Recon reports Miri and Brunei vacant (with level 9/10 detection for weeks now).  I can't figure this out - it would be lunacy to leave them vacant, and I've see ships there plus SigInt of units on Marus bound there, so I'm not sure I trust recon.

Singkep:  The CA Hawkins TF engages in its first action of the war, sinking a good PB and an xAK.  Japan has 390 AV here to 175 for the Allies.  I don't think I can win this little contest since Signkep is right under the nose of Singapore, but I'll do what I can.

Sumatra:  An Aussie brigade and US tanks push aside a weak force that was posted midway between Padang and Sabang.  The Allies are in the open and just underwent a massive attack from Singapore, but I think I'll press on.  If Steve continues to pay careful attention to this little army it means he isn't able to use those aircraft elsewhere.  On to Sabang!

Malaya:  CV Saratoga is ready at Colombo.  Three other CVs should be in position to recover squadrons that had been committed in Sumatra.  (CV Lex is in the yards for at least two more weeks).  Most troops are in place at Madras and most ships have arrived there now.  Victoria Point and Phuket still appear empty.  D-Day in two weeks or less.

Burma:  The Allies succeed in two attacks.  The first takes Pegu and pushes the depleted garrison back into Rangoon.  The second pushes back a depleted little army that had retired from Prome.  This army retires to the hex due west (true) of Rangoon.  An Aliled armored unit will press forward to Moulmein, which is very lightly protected.  The rest of the units will continue until they push all Japanese troops into Rangoon.  The Allies don't have an impressive army, here, but Japan's defenders are few and have been reduced to tatters.

NoPac:  SeaBees landed at Onnekotan Jima.

SWPac:  The Boela transports are about four days out.  Transports carrying 14th NZ Brigade from Auckland to Morotai (still controlled by the Allies and currently vacant) are approaching the Australian coast near Sydney.  ETA Morotai roughly two weeks.



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/22/2012 6:10:38 PM)

Forgot to mention one other tidbit from December 5 turn:  A squadron of well-trained B-24s out of Milne Bay hit Rabaul, damaging two subs, an AS and a CM.  That's a pretty good haul for a single raid by 9 bombers, but the Allies had high detection after a month or more of daily recon flights.



paullus99 -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/22/2012 6:45:32 PM)

Where the hell is his AF? I know you said there was a big raid out of Singapore, but he doesn't seem to be committing nearly the force he should have available at this point. Unless he's husbanding it for the all-out attack on Sumatra, this doesn't make a whole lot of sense (not that much does on his side of the fence).



Canoerebel -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/22/2012 7:11:45 PM)

Most of his airforce is parked at Singpore, where Sallies make regular big raids.  There are some outying bases with some Netties - Sabang, Fiji and Maloelap come to mind.  I know some other bases have decent concentratons - Rangoon, Tulagi, Lunga, and Shimishura Jima. 

A few months ago, Steve mentioned that he had already lost more aircraft in this game (at that time it was around Sept. '42) than he has in his game with BradfordKay, which is in the autumn of '43.  So Steve is very conservative with his planes.  He has suffered some big losses in big raids, and each time he promplty backs down and "turns turtle," sometimes for weeks or months at a time.

I understand his mindset, but he's probably just not aware that Japan has to (and can) press the air war very hard and with much more favorable loss ratios than in the real war.  The Allied plane pools are so limited that Japan can almost neutralize Allied air power in 1942 (and sometimes far beyond that).  I'm not sure Steve is aware of this - he's so busy at work that he probably isn't a big Forums reader to pick up the latest scuttlebut.

I am aware, of course, that the Allies are playing with fire to a certain extent.  I have lots of ships moving around in fairly close proximity to Singapore (and until just now Singkawang, which is a level 7 field).  Steve could certainly try some one-two punches with LBA and the KB.  The Allies could lose some big stuff.  But he's just very reluctant to take chances, partly by nature and partly as a result of the dire state of his navy right now.



Capt. Harlock -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/22/2012 8:28:08 PM)

quote:

SBDs missed Hiei at Kuching again - and once again she was not protected by CAP.


Dive-bombers with no fighter interference missing a large, stationary target?? Courts-martial are in order![:D]



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/22/2012 10:24:13 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I understand his mindset, but he's probably just not aware that Japan has to (and can) press the air war very hard and with much more favorable loss ratios than in the real war. 


If he has HI, which means fuel to spare. If he's limping he doesn't have the uber-air force to deploy. You might be one of the first AAR writers to be facing a semi-historical Japanese air effort.



SqzMyLemon -> RE: Das darf nicht wahr sein! (3/22/2012 10:33:48 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

A few months ago, Steve mentioned that he had already lost more aircraft in this game (at that time it was around Sept. '42) than he has in his game with BradfordKay, which is in the autumn of '43.  So Steve is very conservative with his planes.  He has suffered some big losses in big raids, and each time he promplty backs down and "turns turtle," sometimes for weeks or months at a time.

I understand his mindset, but he's probably just not aware that Japan has to (and can) press the air war very hard and with much more favorable loss ratios than in the real war.  The Allied plane pools are so limited that Japan can almost neutralize Allied air power in 1942 (and sometimes far beyond that).  I'm not sure Steve is aware of this - he's so busy at work that he probably isn't a big Forums reader to pick up the latest scuttlebut.


It could also be as simple as he doesn't have faith his air force will accomplish much with the aircraft he has available. Using Japanese tactical bombers against well fortified positions is a waste of time. He probably only has a handful of Ki-44-IIa Tojo Sentai's to throw in to battle. Unless his Tojo's can win air superiority, he's left with Zero's and Oscar's. They are hardly unbeatable at this stage of the war when facing armoured Allied fighters with half decent pilots.

I don't know why he isn't trying to interdict your shipping with his Betty's and Nell's. Escorted by Zero's, they'd have had many chances over the last few months to cause you some discomfort.

My guess is he doesn't put much stock into his air force achieving much and is saving his pilots.



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