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Cribtop -> RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop (J) vs CF (A) (6/20/2011 6:51:54 PM)
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Feb 15 Strategic Analysis
Cuttlefish couldn't get out a turn last night because a certain stupid Japanese player forgot to hit the "end turn" button. We are a few days late for a strategic analysis anyway and thus will make lemons from lemonade.
Friendly Situation
In general we are progressing nicely, with Canton and Singapore being the only holdups so far. Losses have been very light for all three branches of the Imperial service. We are beginning to establish a perimeter in 4th and SE Fleet AOs and will soon be trying to form a defensive line in Burma once we finish it up. MKB is intact and will soon add Junyo to its ranks. Pilot training and the economy are in good shape (although we still need to rationalize our R&D - a few things have slipped a bit with a newborn around! [;)]).
We have created an opportunity for a major victory in North China at Nanyang and Sian. How far we will be able to exploit this remains to be seen, but at this point Critop HQ rates the odds CF slips the trap at Nanyang at less than 1 in 5.
Enemy Situation and Intentions
We have played deep enough into the game that Cribtop Intel feels its initial guess is correct. Cuttlefish has remained in places of political importance rather than fall back and attempt any of the Allied gambits. For example, large garrisons remain in Batavia and Soerabaja, he left the Aussie Brigades in Singapore, and fought for Rangoon for a time before withdrawing. In the Pacific, we see evidence of base construction at Fiji, the Samoas, Vava'u and Canton Island. Enemy CVs are still believed to be in the SWPAC or SOPAC AO. We have been watching for a harassment raid in either SE Fleet or 4th Fleet but nothing so far. The enemy has suffered significant but not unbearable losses in airframes and ground units. While we have matierially attritted his support vessels his major naval assets are relatively unharmed - with the significant exception of damage to the UK battle line at Nicobar Island. We estimate the British BBs are only damaged but are hoping that one sank.
What does this mean for the future? Obviously no one knows for sure, but certainly the odds we will face a more historical American advance through SWPAC and/or SOPAC is increased if CF is intentionally choosing to constrict his options to a more "period" set of assumptions. Much of our war plan was and is designed to encourage channeling the initial Allied advance away from the vital industry of the DEI, so this may be a boon to us. Time will tell.
Desired Endstate
We are nearing the end of our Phase I goals, and have almost achieved the historical perimeter with a few traditional add ons in the Aleutians, New Guienea and the Gilberts. Phase II looms ahead but Singapore is proving to be a more substantial roadblock than expected. We will concentrate on finishing that bastion and then seizing Sumatra and Java. NW Oz and Phase II will be next, followed by finishing any sieges and then transitioning to the defensive. This is Scenario 1, so we need to be realistic and avoid overextension. The major strategic question facing Japan is whether to move deeper into the South Pacific or to go for parts of Oz other than the Darwin region, which is considered part of our Phase I objectives.
The main strategic rationales for SOPAC include establishing defensive foregrounds (i.e. delay) and cutting or diverting the LoC to Australia. Any significant move here will require us to reposition MKB back to Truk unless CF shows his CVs somewhere else, which seems unlikely at this point. Capturing Fiji or Noumea or even just the New Hebrides are all considered. In a previous PBEM we wanted New Caledonia and the New Hebrides to precipitate a CV clash in '42 on favorable terms. However, engaging in a major battle at the end of our logistical tether for a salient in our perimeter seems less appealing in this game for a variety of reasons. We certainly won't grab any of these targets and try to defend them to the hilt, as that could repeat the mistakes at Guadalcanal made by Japan IRL. That in turn raises the question of whether it's worth it to grab them at all, especially given our planned Phase II target (which we're still being a bit coy about for OpSec reasons, FYI).
Execution
For now, the goals are clear. Finish Singapore with the new "airfield attacks only plus 2 consecutive DAs" strategy. If that fails we'll reinforce the place, but I've never had to do that when I brought 5 divisions. In 16th Army AO we'll take Denpasar, then recombine 21s and 38th Divisions at Kendari. 16th Division will be re-assembled and pulled out of the siege at Luzon. These divisions plus 3 armored regiments currently a day out from Kendari form a potent force that will be used for either NW Oz (my preference) or Java. If Singapore continues to be a problem we will use one of these Divisions to finish the city while the other two invade Java with the intention of forcing a siege until Singers falls. If Singapore falls quickly we will capture Darwin with two divisions and keep the third in theater reserve.
In the Pacific, we will attend to defensive tasks for now and raid/probe SOPAC with AMCs, subs and the Taiyo.
In China we will finish Nanyang, take Sian, and then determine whether to reinforce southern China or push on in the North. If we choose the latter path we will probably buy a division out of Manchukuo for use in Southern China as we don't want the Kanshien/Kukong/Wuchow line of bases to have forever to dig in.
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