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Cribtop -> RE: Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop (J) vs CF (A) (10/20/2012 12:05:48 AM)
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Great posts, temagic. Let me respond to a few points.
First, I'm honored and humbled at what you have shared with us about your health. Here's hoping you continue to improve. I'm thrilled to be your surrogate gateway to AE.
Second, there's no doubt this is a gamble. We can't ignore the fact that the Allied juggernaut is gaining steam. This is the point in the game where it is easy for the Japanese player to try to do too much and get clobbered. IRL, Japan did the same. I've tried to anticipate and mitigate the risks. The IJN is still far stronger than the Royal Navy, and, thanks to three fleet carriers sunk, we would overmatch the combined fleets of the RN and USN. Furthermore, we have a decided advantage in LBA in theater. Thus, I strongly believe we will have naval and air superiority. This is the basis of the entire plan. My carriers will certainly stay out of string bag range of the coast to be sure. A big fear is subs, but other than reasonable countermeasures, there is little to be done there except hope for some luck. My biggest concerns are: 1) does CF have a big force of restricted units that can stalemate 17th Army before we can close the door; and 2) will the terrain of Assam allow for us to move quickly enough to complete the encirclement before CF can effectively respond? The Plan B I mention above is basically the bailout in case either of those eventualities comes to pass.
Consider the upside, however. We can be ashore in about four days, three if we're lucky. After that, if there is no massive Indian Army lurking to stop us, we could cut off and perhaps destroy irreplaceable assets. The pools for the UK and, to a lesser extent, Australian forces are too small to sustain the destruction of the enemy's Burma invasion force, and the Indian Army would be crippled. This would foreclose another attack on Burma until '44, and, if we succeed in the "wildest dreams" sense, leave India itself vulnerable.
Third, I can't say I've played perfectly, but I would say that the results after all was said and done are about perfect as we begin 1943. Some of that was luck, some of it IMHO is attributed to conservative play by my opponent, but in the end I have what I wanted when the war began. I am aggressive, no doubt, but honestly if I had it to play again I might be even more aggressive. Still, I try very hard not to be rash, to account for contingencies, and to have a way out. We shall see where we go from here, but in the end I read the Burma invasion as an "all in" move by CF. For once he might be exposed to an unexpected counterattack, and my feel is that a sudden reversal of the initiative could throw him off his game.
Fourth, Alfred was supportive of this Op, and I've learned to listen to his advice.
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