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Q-Ball -> RE: Blizzard! (7/9/2011 4:05:59 PM)
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3/26/42: Pre-Mud Assessment:
Tarhunnas is somewhere on a boat in the Baltic at the moment, so a couple days break in the action. This AAR will pick up for a few days, before STAVKA HQ relocates to a remote Dacha for summer vacation at the end of the July.
In the meantime, I am putting together my thoughts on Germans plans for the upcoming Summer campaign.
OOB Numbers:
This turn, the Germans sit at 2.76 mil and 781 Tanks; I am at 5.33 mil, and 4,700 tanks.
At the moment, I am growing alot faster than he is, adding 80,000 men since last turn, and I am adding tanks to the front as fast as I can make them, which at the moment is pretty fast (over 500 per turn). I don't have a pool of tank replacements yet, but I think I will come May, even at the rate I am creating Tank Bns (I have built 40 so far, and more to follow).
Next turn, I build Tank Corps, and each will get 2 Sapper Regts right off the bat (STAVKA has almost 40 right now that I have been building in advance). A few will get a Guards Motorcycle Regt instead of one Sapper Regt. Everyone gets a Tank Bn.
The Werhmacht isn't growing at all lately, though I know he gets alot of new Infantry units in the spring, plus all the Hungarians and the Italians.
I don't expect ANY attacks in the mud, as he really needs to take it easy. In fact, I don't expect alot in the clear turns, except to knock a couple of my forts out, or position for the summer.
Wehrmacht Plans:
It doesn't take a genius to figure out where the Wehrmacht will attack in the Summer.
Tarhunnas's priorities have to be killing Reds, impairing my Manpower production, and forming a viable defense line. These objectives are all most easily met in the SOUTH. I know that's what everyone does in 1942, but for good reason.
Around MOSCOW, I think he will sit tight. An offensive here would be doing me a favor, I think; it would only make the line LONGER, and the terrain favors me. Because of this, I plan to draw-down alot of troops from this area for my reserves.
Priority #1 will be an attack out of the Dnepr bridgehead Southeast, to reach the Sea of Azov and push me off the Dnepr. If Tarhunnas accomplishes nothing else this summer, he has to accomplish this.
Then, (or at the same time), I expect encirclement attacks around the Orel-Kursk-Kharkov line, to push me back and maybe re-take these cities. (Actually, Kursk never fell in 1941). There is alot of population up there, and he needs to bring the line straighter with Moscow.
Red Army Plans:
If I am right on Wehrmacht objectives, here is what I am doing about it:
First, I am pulling off all Guards Units, Cav, and Tanks, to refit for the Spring. The Tanks will form Tank Corps and get SUs; hopefully they will be serviceable come May.
SOUTH PREP:
I am digging in depth near the Dnepr bridgehead, including the Mochka river. I need to be very careful not to get units pinned and surrounded againts the Sea of Azov down here, so the best defense is in depth. I plan to deploy at least 5 Guards Cav Corps and Tanks down here, to counterattack the Panzers, and hopefully bleed him.
I expect to lose the fight eventually; diggers are working on backup-lines at the Crimean bottlenecks (including Sevsatopol, Kerch, etc), and also will be in a line on the Donbas cities, using the Rivers on either side (I do have alot of exisiting forts down there from last year's fighting)
CENTER:
In the O-K-K salient, I am digging a line along rivers about 5 hexes back. I may just fall back into it, not sure, but I definitely need to protect the shoulders.
I have a line of infantry (you can see the white units) that are digging along the River in the map below.
RESERVES: I had a small reserve during the SNOW, where I didn't really expect a major breakthrough along the front. This will change for the Summer.
Reserves will consist minimally of 2 Shock Armies and 2 other armies, with lots of Guards Units in the Regular Armies, and lots of Mobile units in the Shock Armies. I plan to pull-off 40 Guards Divisions for reserves, and 10-12 Tanks Corps, plus 6-8 Cav Corps. I also need to pull-off at least 25 decent regular Rifle units.
Generally, I am thinning-out my lines up North, and moving stuff SOUTH. I don't expect massive attacks up there at all, maybe just local stuff, or maybe not even that. He has Moscow fairly secure now, and probably will be content to spend the summer digging up to his eyeballs.
I have alot of depleted/unready "Diggers"; these I can "activate" by hitting REFIT for a turn, and they fill out quickly. At the moment, only GUARDS and MOBILE units are on Refit, as I want to fill those out, but they should be topped-off in just a turn or two, as they are all behind the lines at this point. Then I can work on some regular infantry.
MANPOWER:
My biggest production problem is Manpower.
I am going to get a lift from some Manpower centers that were damaged in 1941, and I figure to hold onto permanently in 1942. This includes Ivanovo, Vladimir, Ryazan, Tula, and all the space around there. That will certainly help. I am already getting a RR lift from these places.
Beyond that, I will probably lose in the Ukriane. Some are not producing anyway (like Kharkov, Orel, too damaged), but once he gets to "Virgin" territory, the losses will cut into meat. Kursk is one of those places, as well as anything beyond the Donbas. My goal is limit his penetration to these areas. If I can end 1942 producing 90K Manpower or so a turn, I should be able to roll the Fascists back to Berlin.
[image]local://upfiles/6931/73F6FBF8E780410A92FE089FBD62F555.jpg[/image]
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