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Q-Ball -> RE: Blizzard! (7/1/2011 8:14:07 PM)

That is good to know on MANPOWER. I predicted I would have Manpower problems with all the territory I lost in the Summer.

There are some rays of hope; Tarhunnas trashed alot of Manpower Centers that are repairing. A number of those I figure to be able to keep, including Ivanovo, Vladimir, Ryazan, Vishney, and maybe Tula, plus lots of other smaller towns. I am not counting on keeping anything south of Tula (and that one is a maybe)

I figure to lose alot of other places, but at least the population will migrate as he takes it back

Manpower will be my biggest problem more than likely

Looking on the Brightside too, my MORALE is in good shape, with all those successful attacks, and the Wehrmacht I bet doesn't have a single unit above 75 morale at this point



randallw -> RE: Blizzard! (7/1/2011 8:32:19 PM)

You can always take a look at the losses screen to see what kind, and how many of, the panzers are out of commission.



Scook_99 -> RE: Blizzard! (7/1/2011 9:58:07 PM)

I love this, this is one of the more realistic games I have seen. Both armies giving all they got, and being on the verge of exhaustion. I think some (in)famous dictator called this a test of wills.



Sabre21 -> RE: Blizzard! (7/1/2011 10:10:14 PM)

I would be interested in seeing the production page that shows the manpower and armaments for that last turn in Feb.



Klydon -> RE: Blizzard! (7/1/2011 10:45:03 PM)

No question, top notch AAR for both sides. 



Erik Rutins -> RE: Blizzard! (7/2/2011 1:45:55 AM)

Agreed, great AAR and overall a fantastic job on the Winter counter-attack by the Soviets.

Q-Ball, I have to agree with Flavius. Your army doesn't have much time to recover now, focus on your defenses.

Regards,

- Erik



randallw -> RE: Blizzard! (7/2/2011 6:39:21 AM)

It looks tempting to keep slapping at those wounded panzer divisions.



Apollo11 -> RE: Blizzard! (7/2/2011 1:57:54 PM)

Hi all,

quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

Agreed, great AAR and overall a fantastic job on the Winter counter-attack by the Soviets.

Q-Ball, I have to agree with Flavius. Your army doesn't have much time to recover now, focus on your defenses.

Regards,

- Erik


I don't know Erik... I think the Soviets might have overdone themselves here...


Leo "apollo11"



Q-Ball -> Spring Thaw (7/2/2011 3:57:17 PM)

3/12/42: Snow Season

I would really like to take a break, but Tarhunnas isn't going to let me. He is attacking in a couple sectors, and we feel compelled to hit back.

It's excrutiating, because I know I need to rest the Red Army, and build strength. This turn, we topped 5.2 mil, but I would build quicker if we didn't keep grinding away in battle.

Tarhunnas attacked this turn, leaving several Panzer Corps (stacks of units) vulnerable to counterattack. Should I have left them there, or hit them?

I chose to hit them; anytime you can inflict close to 1-1 on the Wehrmacht I think you have to do it, even if it makes my units look pretty bad. But pushing 3 stacks of Panzers doesn't bode particularly well for a summer offensive, so there is that. Maybe the best defense is a good offense.

The Germans are below 600 total tanks still; our armor is growing to 3,800, and I am about to make Tank Corps. I realize many Panzers are obsolete and don't matter in the long-run, but in the Short-run, his losses include 860 Panzer III/j so far; this tank is still in production, and useful in 1942. You can't run a summer offensive on JUST spring builds, can you?

Moscow:

As predicted, the Germans are slowly pushing back around Moscow; 3 total hexes re-captured this turn. I am OK with just a very slow offensive here for the SNOW. A few pushes is all I expect.

Dnepr Line:
2 Panzer Corps fought their way across the frozen Dnepr north of Z-Town. He is making a serious bid to re-capture it in Snow, and more importantly, establish a bridgehead for the spring.

We pushed back 1 stack, causing alot of losses, but I don't think I can hold the bank. I want to contain him to a few hexes, but ultimately he will probably get his bridgehead, just at the cost of burning out his units.

The Panzer Stack was 3 Panzer Divisions. Total tanks: 63; now down to 35. Total. That's pretty ugly!

Questions:

Does it make sense to hit back with these 1-1 or 1-1.5 exchanges, even though my guys are tired? I think so, but want an opinion.

I created a couple Light Howitzer Brigades. I don't think I'll build too many, but wanted to "test drive" some artillery units before I get Divisions. Do you use too many of these units?

It seems like I have some extra Air Command HQs; every front has one, and I am keeping the Long Range Command, but do I need any more of these seemingly extra Air Command HQs? Let me know, because if I don't, I will disband a couple for Infantry Replacements.

I am creating alot of Sapper Regiments, and fair number of Tank Bns. Smart? I plan to load-up all my corps units.

[image]local://upfiles/6931/A65FEAAB44A44754A29FF76CE26AFCF9.jpg[/image]



Flaviusx -> RE: Spring Thaw (7/2/2011 4:05:54 PM)

Q-ball, my own view is you have farmed your guards to cap and with that accomplished, rebuilding and setting up your defenses and reserves are in order. Attacking for the sake of attacking is pointless. Tarhunnas needs to bring up his morale and giving him easy counterattack targets just helps him restore his unit morale.

If you cannot hold the Dnepr bend, make sure to have fallback fortlines in place. I'd be prepared to fall back to the Crimea if need be.

The most dangerous spot for you, perhaps, is in the center, where you are out in the open. There's a good set of minor rivers about a half dozen hexes back from there (with a few gaps) that you ought to fortify.

As for the panzers...the most important thing about panzer divisions is their mobility, not their armor. If his infantry is strong enough to crack your lines, then the panzer divisions need only exploit.

My opinion of artillery brigades isn't high. A waste of APs, with the notable exception of the rocket brigades, which do pack a hefty punch. Otherwise, 5 APs buys you more tubes if spent on 5 arty SUs, and these will be 122s and 152s as compared to 76s.



TulliusDetritus -> RE: Spring Thaw (7/2/2011 4:34:09 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

It seems like I have some extra Air Command HQs; every front has one, and I am keeping the Long Range Command, but do I need any more of these seemingly extra Air Command HQs? Let me know, because if I don't, I will disband a couple for Infantry Replacements.


How did you do that? If you don't count the Long Range thing and the two Naval [?] Air Commands in the Baltic and Black Seas you should have only one Air HQ for each Front [&:] I didn't disband anything and that's what I have on my game.

During the summer the Voronezh Front will arrive and like two weeks later a new Air Command (the 15th) which I assigned to this new front.

On my game the two Naval air commands are attached to Fronts located near the Baltic and Black Seas (Leningrad and Suuthern Fronts that is). So in fact these two fronts have 2 air commands (regular + naval).



Erik Rutins -> RE: Blizzard! (7/2/2011 5:44:53 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Apollo11
I don't know Erik... I think the Soviets might have overdone themselves here...


I would have stopped a couple of weeks earlier, but I understand the temptation. The counter-offensive was very well executed overall. The Germans can hit back in March harder than you expect. Even when wounded they are dangerous.

Regards,

- Erik



Mehring -> RE: Blizzard! (7/2/2011 6:06:39 PM)

I agree with Flavius. What I was advocating earlier doesn't look appropriate in the light of the information you've given. Fortify and man the entries to the Crimea. Look over your shoulder big time, for river lines to defend. The Axis have good numbers of manpower and guns, the tanks will come, and any degradation of his morale and experience you've achieved, you must do your best to maintain. Get the units you need for a defence on rail lines in refit mode and don't refit the diggers. Time to sober up after a good winter, I fear he'll recover quicker than you.



paullus99 -> RE: Blizzard! (7/2/2011 6:09:24 PM)

Agreed - hitting him for the sake of inflicting losses at this point may well prove to be counter-productive (for the moral reasons listed above). His infantry will recover faster & hit harder, so start preparing your fallback positions & be prepared to trade some space for time to prepare your defenses.



TulliusDetritus -> RE: Blizzard! (7/2/2011 6:23:09 PM)

Hmm, you all make it sound as if there's going to be a massive German attack that will doom the Soviets [&:] Maybe I am way too agressive but I would not miss any opportunity. I would keep trashing ALL the Germans in sight: snow, clear or mud weather, who cares...

Tarhunnas has only these snow turns. And I doubt he can do anything. He's been utterly smashed. AFTER that Q-Ball has the best shield avaliable: MUD until june [;)] He has PLENTY of time to reorganize and rest his forces.

And he can have both: keep trashing enemies while some units (er brigades) start digging defensive positions. That's what I would do. Er, that's what I DID on my game.



Encircled -> RE: Blizzard! (7/2/2011 6:36:57 PM)

But you were much stronger than Q-Ball is now.

If he has indeed maxed out his Guards, then he's just got to slow down the Germans, and prepared defences are the best way to do this.

The problem that I see is that Tarhunnas can just pull his Panzers and Motorised Divs back for refit, and unless you get lucky on recon, they could in theory hit anywhere on the front, and you can't be strong everywhere



TulliusDetritus -> RE: Blizzard! (7/2/2011 6:49:06 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled

But you were much stronger than Q-Ball is now.

If he has indeed maxed out his Guards, then he's just got to slow down the Germans, and prepared defences are the best way to do this.

The problem that I see is that Tarhunnas can just pull his Panzers and Motorised Divs back for refit, and unless you get lucky on recon, they could in theory hit anywhere on the front, and you can't be strong everywhere


Q-Ball preserved the Red Army, so I don't think I was much more stronger. He has clearly said he keeps seeing easy targets. Strong or not (blizzard or not), he might smash them. Soviets have lots of men. Germans don't. These trashed guys might not fight during the summer offensive (if there is one). I wanted Q-Ball to know the two sides of the coin. He must decide [:)]



Mehring -> RE: Blizzard! (7/2/2011 8:41:22 PM)

I think you're overstating the material damage done to the Germans. Damage to German morale coupled with growth in Russian soft factors should considerably degrade the Germans offensive ability, but they have till June to recover too.

I see a lack of Russian guns and manpower which makes me feel a little queezy, and remember, a lot of arms and population centres have gone west.

Not saying it's all over, not by a long shot, but I do think the Axis will be able to crack the Russian line and give the Russians a good summer kicking.



TulliusDetritus -> RE: Blizzard! (7/2/2011 8:59:57 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Mehring

I think you're overstating the material damage done to the Germans. Damage to German morale coupled with growth in Russian soft factors should considerably degrade the Germans offensive ability, but they have till June to recover too.

I see a lack of Russian guns and manpower which makes me feel a little queezy, and remember, a lot of arms and population centres have gone west.

Not saying it's all over, not by a long shot, but I do think the Axis will be able to crack the Russian line and give the Russians a good summer kicking.


Mehring, I am NOT thinking about june. I am thinking about these few snow turns. In other games you would see Germans trashing the Red Army. Here we can have the opposite: a mini-Blizzard Part II [;)] The Germans have been really smashed. There should be lots of ants (or really weak enemy units). I speak from my [limited] experience. I saw these miserable ants on my game (I was expecting German agressive moves, which NEVER appeared. The only thing that appeared was the Soviet steamroller...). And I achieved maximum 70 attacks per turn. Ergo I can imagine the really rough state of the Germans on this game.



Flaviusx -> RE: Blizzard! (7/2/2011 9:09:45 PM)

The Germans haven't been smashed. Their numbers are actually rather good, excepting their AFV holdings. Their infantry made it through this winter in rather good shape, it seems.

Also, Tarhunnas is not to be underestimated. He is very dangerous on the offense. Once his mobility is restored, anything can happen, and it's best to plan for the worst. Nor is the Red Army particularly overwhelming. For the sake of comparsion, take a look at the 42 scenario and the starting Soviet numbers -- Q-ball is short of these across the board.

He had a fine blizzard counteroffensive and made full use of his advantages during the season, but the beginning of wisdom consists of knowing when to stop.



Klydon -> RE: Blizzard! (7/2/2011 9:20:01 PM)

Q-Ball had a great blizzard offensive that got him back into the game. This game is still very much up for grabs as a result of that. Tarhunnas may have low tanks, but motorized units and panzers can still surround a lot of units. He will also get a good number of re-enforcements coming in during the spring to build up for the summer offensive. 



TulliusDetritus -> RE: Blizzard! (7/2/2011 9:24:30 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

The Germans haven't been smashed.


My opponent disagrees [;)] He clearly said the German units that were smashed (aka attacked) were in a rough state... And on this game we have seen +100 attacks per turn... No one is thinking about winning the war. Simply about trashing the ants next to your units. And there should be plenty...

There's plenty of time to stop and rest... On 2 or 3 weeks mud will be here.



Encircled -> RE: Blizzard! (7/2/2011 10:24:32 PM)

He needs that extra time to recover

He won't smash German offensive capability in the snow for the whole of '42, but if he overextends, with damaged units in need of a rest, it won't take much to take a couple of big hits.

Why risk it?



JAMiAM -> RE: Blizzard! (7/2/2011 10:34:34 PM)

A lot of this metagaming would be drastically changed if the game was using random weather. Then, the silliness of speaking of just x more turns of this, and y turns of that would disappear. You'd have to make choices that were strategically, and operationally sound, without knowing exactly what type of weather would come up next turn.



TulliusDetritus -> RE: Blizzard! (7/2/2011 10:45:02 PM)

Encircled, he's got the whole mud season to rest. That's a lot of time. Above all, I don't like this dogmatism. Blizzard over = duck and cover. Why? If there are juicy targets, why should we miss them? I guess Q-Ball was perplexed. End of blizzard, and somehow he can still attack enemy units. That's why he asked. I faced the same dilemma and decided I would throw overboard the dogmatism. I am pretty certain I did the right thing [:)] He wanted our opinions. He has them.



Encircled -> RE: Blizzard! (7/2/2011 11:00:47 PM)

Which is what is wrong. He knows exactly what is going to happen.



quote:

A lot of this metagaming would be drastically changed if the game was using random weather. Then, the silliness of speaking of just x more turns of this, and y turns of that would disappear. You'd have to make choices that were strategically, and operationally sound, without knowing exactly what type of weather would come up next turn.


+1



sillyflower -> RE: Blizzard! (7/2/2011 11:10:55 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus

Encircled, he's got the whole mud season to rest. That's a lot of time. Above all, I don't like this dogmatism. Blizzard over = duck and cover. Why? If there are juicy targets, why should we miss them? I guess Q-Ball was perplexed. End of blizzard, and somehow he can still attack enemy units. That's why he asked. I faced the same dilemma and decided I would throw overboard the dogmatism. I am pretty certain I did the right thing [:)] He wanted our opinions. He has them.


I agree with TD. You can still kick some Jerries without over-extending. If you are causing nearly 1:1 losses it hurts Tarhunnas more than you. I think germans only get about 35K replacements per turn so attrition + loses of 30K will mean he's getting weaker- tho' he does get new units. I'm not sure how many arty he can afford to replace each turn, but those are likely to be losses he can ill afford.



Encircled -> RE: Blizzard! (7/2/2011 11:16:19 PM)

He's got about a 1,000,000 men less than pretty much every other Soviet Mar'42 AAR I've seen.

My advice is to begin to reorganise, and wait for the counter attack behind prepared positions




Flaviusx -> RE: Blizzard! (7/2/2011 11:46:46 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: JAMiAM

A lot of this metagaming would be drastically changed if the game was using random weather. Then, the silliness of speaking of just x more turns of this, and y turns of that would disappear. You'd have to make choices that were strategically, and operationally sound, without knowing exactly what type of weather would come up next turn.


James, my advice in this situation would be exactly the same with random weather. The Red Army needs to rest and rebuild and lay down reserves and defensive lines. 5 million men and 55k artillery isn't going to break the Wehrmacht, and is more likely to be itself broken if caught in the open.



Mehring -> RE: Blizzard! (7/3/2011 1:39:02 AM)

quote:

Encircled, he's got the whole mud season to rest. That's a lot of time. Above all, I don't like this dogmatism.
I completely agree. You have to judge a situation on the corelation of forces, not merely a change in the weather. If you look back a page or two, you'll see I was advocating very similar to yourself, actually advocating keeping the line stretched if the situation was good and preparing summer offensives... and then I saw the respective OBs. It's really not that great. There's cause for concern.

Attack as Russain and you almost invariably open yourself to painful counter- attack. There's little to gain here, and a whole lot to lose.



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