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TulliusDetritus -> RE: Blizzard! (6/29/2011 10:04:40 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball
Because I am still getting 1:1.5 Kill Ratios, I should keep attacking, right?


YES [sm=00000622.gif] Suffice to say that if I had to choose between captured enemy hexes or a trashed German unit + NO hexes I would always choose the latter. The Germans can always grab these hexes again during the summer, but their human losses... I would EVEN attack at 1:1...

quote:


But the Soviets can launch and sustain way more attacks than the historical Soviets could. As soon as the Red Army attempted to expand the 1941-42 Winter Offensive over the whole front, it started to stall, and Zhukov was specifically against a massive effort like that.

In game, there isn't a realistic way to put a logistical break. The Soviets do not have supply problems at this stage.

Maybe the CVs for the Germans should be revised upward further in Jan/Feb. Because once you lose your forts, like Tarhunnas has, it's easy to keep kicking Germans around.


That's why I used Big Anorak's winter rule [;)] The thing is perhaps this game will be balanced. On one side we have the Germans, really trashed; on the other we have the Soviets: their industrial capacity has been truly crippled, from what other experts have said. Interesting '42 campaign [:)]



Mynok -> RE: Blizzard! (6/29/2011 10:19:40 PM)


Well, it will be one extreme or the other IMO: very interesting or mind-bogglingly boring. [:)]



TulliusDetritus -> RE: Blizzard! (6/29/2011 10:39:24 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball
Maybe the CVs for the Germans should be revised upward further in Jan/Feb. Because once you lose your forts, like Tarhunnas has, it's easy to keep kicking Germans around.


I forgot this one. I see a problem here. IF Tarhunnas ran out of fortified positions it's HIS fault. But imagine another player who's been very disciplined and has done his homework. If we do what you suggest maybe we would be castrating the Soviet Winter Offensive. We would have another wrong in my opinion [:)] And no matter what... the Germans must definitely get some! [:D]



Q-Ball -> RE: Blizzard! (6/29/2011 10:48:34 PM)

Good feedback....Tarhunnas made some mistakes and probably deserved to pay, just like I did in the summer, but it's starting to look extreme.

I am thinking of a general halt, or maybe I should keep pushing. It's only 3 more turns, so we're almost done. And I am halting how all but 4 fronts, because they can't keep going or reached a stopping point.



Mynok -> RE: Blizzard! (6/29/2011 11:26:30 PM)


quote:

I am thinking of a general halt, or maybe I should keep pushing.


Well.....you can't do both of these. [:'(]



Sabre21 -> RE: Blizzard! (6/29/2011 11:47:57 PM)

Remember prior to 1.04 even if the Germans were in a fort they were getting their butts handed to them during the blizzard. At least now the Germans have a chance to hold on if they prepare themselves properly. Without a fort you are at the mercy of the full blizzard and the Soviet attack..that should be expected and is intended to be that way.



Flaviusx -> RE: Blizzard! (6/29/2011 11:51:47 PM)

Q-ball, I think it is time to start winding this down and lay down your stop lines. I do not think Moscow is going to happen -- I believe it is far more likely that in trying to surround it you will expose yourself to a counteroffensive during March.

Tarhunnas caught a case of victory disease in late autumn 1941; don't do the same. You've had a good winter counteroffensive, don't press your luck.




Sabre21 -> RE: Blizzard! (6/30/2011 12:20:38 AM)

While I can't see the entire map at this point, i would try and straighten the line where possible and be digging in multiple lines of defense, especially where you might think Tarhunnas might attempt to attack come summer.

One area I noticed is up in the area north of Moscow where you have a large bulge. There isn't much up there for the Germans to take if he attacks there but I wouldn't discount it for 3 reasons. First it would shorten his line freeing up more units for future reserves, secondly he could potentially cut off that front, and thirdly, threaten the Yaraslavol area. I would build a secondary line of forts east of the current front along the marshes and a tertiary one behind the major river. I would hold the front line though because I would rather have him attack up there than put his weight down south towards the Caucusus. 



Peltonx -> RE: Blizzard! (6/30/2011 1:38:47 AM)

You will be surprised how hard and fast he will be able to hit back. He only needs a handfull of high ToW mech units to punch a hole, the other mech units can still exploit a hole.

The best way I thk would be if you can keep pushing and be digging a line behind the front, because if you stop he will refit quickly and counter punch during the snow.

Very interesting AAR. I learn more reading the Russian side of AAR's.

Pelton



Sabre21 -> RE: Blizzard! (6/30/2011 3:04:20 AM)

Was this a random weather game? If so, snow can occur on every turn in Feb., so be aware of that.



Pawlock -> RE: Blizzard! (6/30/2011 8:11:41 AM)

Q-Ball

I'd be curious to know if what your doing and seeing is the norm? As I have have said previously,I am similar situation but 2- 3 turns behind you. That said, I cannot launch anywhere near the amount of attacks you do, with me peaking around 30-40 attacks total. Is Tarhunnas launching many counter attacks and what kinda Cv's are you facing when he decides to stand? My opponent counters quite vigourously and has some very strong lines where he stands.

Could be a case Im just getting my ass handed to me[X(]

Be interresting to see if other players can notch up large amounts of attacks?





Fishbed -> RE: Blizzard! (6/30/2011 12:15:59 PM)

Remember that Q-Ball sacrificed a lot of land for the sake of his units. His Red Army is somewhat more powerful than the average one after 1941. But it's all a matter of balance: even though he is stronger than the average blizzard 41' Soviet player, as you can see, he will still have to renounce to the idea of liberating Moscow (or grab it with a high cost) for the time being despite his might.



Q-Ball -> RE: Blizzard! (6/30/2011 3:26:38 PM)

2/12/1942

Great comments here, and I will try to hit on all of them.

We are playing NON-RANDOM weather, so it's another 2 Blizzard turns after this one. This turn, we had 50 attacks; 46 were successful, and 4 HELDS. The percentage was very high, as we are winding it down, and I am stacking to the max to make sure I push whatever I am on. I also probably had a lucky turn.

RE: ATTACKS, I think the reason I have so many is due to a few factors, in order of importance:

1. LONG LINES: Tarhunnas attempted to defend too much territory, and too long a front
2. LACK OF STACKING: His defense was in every hex, presenting too many targets
3. RED ARMY STRENGTH: I was strong entering Winter; primarily due to
a) Focus on conserving strength in Summer
b) Armament Conservation, which got me to December with enough Rifles for everyone
c) Cavalry Hoarding; I did not expose them to combat in the summer
4. TACTICS: Every turn I used my MPs carefully to maximize the number of attacks
5. RESERVES: I rotated my front-line units constantly, to keep fresh ones in front. I have also committed every reserve.

PLANS:

I committed my last reserves in January, to keep the offensive going. At this point, I am no longer sending new divisions to the front; I need to start forming RESERVES again. Right now, I have hardly any.

So, I am taking the following steps:
1. I am PULLING several Guards Divisions for RESERVES, and to rest/refit
2. I will pull most of my Guards Cav off the front soon
3. I am pulling back Tank Bdes, in preparation for forming Tank Corps
4. Any New Divisions are not being sent to the front; they are parked in the rear

I plan to create a Reserve for March of at least 20 Divisions, and a larger one for the Summer consisting of at least 3 Armies, including many Guards units.

I have piles and piles of Depleted and Unready units; these are parked everywhere as Diggers, and as I get replacements I will start to Fill-out these units and make them "Active".

FRONT LINES:

I plan to pull-out of a couple bulges and straighten the line soon. This includes the Salient north of Sumy (which is now 7 hexes from Chernigov!), and the one around Vishney Volochek. The Finns are pulling back a bit, which is also helping rationalize the line.

In Winter, long lines favors the Soviets; in Summer, it favors the Germans, so I will need to keep that in mind.

SUPPORT UNITS:

I am building lots of Sappers and Tank Bns; about 4 Sapper and 2 tanks a turn. I don't think I am making too many, as I want LOTS.

At the moment, this is straining my tank replacements, as I don't have enough to go around for all the new units plus Brigades, but from what everyone says, this problem goes away as Soviet Tank production kicks-in, and I stop losing so many.

Besides, I have a Manpower issue long-term, and Tanks are a force-multiplier, so I want to use as many as possible.


[image]local://upfiles/6931/DFD1912C99AC464E8A6450A35359C257.jpg[/image]



Mehring -> RE: Blizzard! (6/30/2011 10:32:59 PM)

quote:

In Winter, long lines favors the Soviets; in Summer, it favors the Germans, so I will need to keep that in mind.


You're not going to follow this advice, but I'll say it again anyway.

Who long lines favour completely depends on the corelation of forces and relative mobility of each side for responding to breakthroughs. The weather is one of many factors which affects that corelation. Stretch your line and you also stretch his. How badly mauled is he? Prepare to defend by digging in, in depth, by all means, it would be imprudent not to, but don't hand over the initiative if you don't have to.

In spring you will be building tank corps which, though at first weak and lacking experience, can both respond over great distance to threats and breakthroughs as well as exploiting breakthroughs to make deep penetrations of their own. You already have a powerful mobile cavalry. With any luck your infantry should flesh out, giving you the posiblity of maintaining an extended front, defending in depth and preparing counter-attacks.

Stretch his line and he will nevertheless be able to concentrate, make breakthroughs, encircle and destroy your units. But what if, while patching your line together where he's attacking, you're "hitting him where he isn't", launching your own offensives to destroy his strung out divisions, most likely broken down into regiments? If he's as batterd as it looks now, you will probably win the attrition. He may learn, but he has demonstrated fatal propensity for trying to hold onto more than he can.



bigbaba -> RE: Blizzard! (7/1/2011 8:41:31 AM)

following this AAR from the beginning i must say that you had a realy good comeback in this game after summer 41. after the lose of leningrad and moskau i realy thought you will end in the lubijana prison in moskau.:) great blizzard blitz.



PeeDeeAitch -> RE: Blizzard! (7/1/2011 1:31:44 PM)

I do not want to face Q in winter, ever. I do horribly facing 40-50 attacks in Dec-January...100 would mean I pack up my army and head to Poland.



Q-Ball -> RE: Blizzard! (7/1/2011 1:45:45 PM)

Mehring, I'll listen, in fact you were correct about the forces in the Crimea running out of gas early, though it was worth it anyway no doubt.

Will I keep attacking in the Snow? I have to see what the landscape looks like, but I suspect I will be doing some. In particular, I am planning an offensive against the Finns; they continue to attack me, and continue to take losses. Finnish strength is below 230K, and they get something like 700 replacements a turn. I can bleed these guys, forcing him to bring Germans north of the No-Move line.

2/19/42:

We are winding down the Winter Offensive, but there are two unfinished pieces of business (see map).

In the NORTH, we push on Moscow still. The Germans south of town repelled numerous attacks, killing several thousand of my troops. We hit a brick wall, and that probably saved the day for the defenders of Moscow, because if we had advanced one more hex, I think the city would be mine. Oh well, boo hoo, I can win anyway.

In the SOUTH, I unfortunately have to launch a major offensive accross the Dnepr, just to clear the line for the Spring. I can't have a Z-Town bridgehead on the other side, but direct assault is a no-go, thus the massive attacks. I have it surrounded, but the pocket is very breakable; the question is whether he'll break one or two sides. If only one, I think he'll have to leave the place.

Elsewhere, we are making opportunity attacks, but I am pulling-off units for reserves, and starting to dig in the back.

Random Questions:

What do Guard Armies do? Do they have special abilities, or are they just very elite typists at HQ?

Who do you guys put at STAVKA? Zhukov is the best general, but I feel like he is wasted not at a front command. I kept Shaposhnikov there, who is very average, other than a high admin rating. Do you guys just keep Boris in charge?

Remind me again on build dates: (are these correct?)

March 1942: Rifle Bdes to Divisions
April 1942: Tank Corps
June 1942: Rifle Corps
September: Mech Corps
Jan 43: Guards Airborne Div

Guards:

With all the attacks I am doing, I am pretty sure I will hit the Guards cap. I already have 50 Guards Rifle Divisions, and still adding as of last turn.

I also have 16 Guards Cav; I think I can add 2-3 more to that.

Only 2 Guards Tank Bdes, but I have at least 4 "in the zone" for conversion. I have been trying to push this lately, so I can build Tank Corps with them. Once I get Guards, I am pulling the Brigades to REFIT, so when they convert to Corps, they will be trained and ready to rock.

I also have 2 Guards Mountain Divisions. Thinking WAY ahead, these will be useful when I hit the Carpathians.

[image]local://upfiles/6931/E0F107A3DE954FF49C0E5BA5C01E2F2B.jpg[/image]



Flaviusx -> RE: Blizzard! (7/1/2011 2:38:20 PM)

Keep Zhukov in STAVKA until October 41 or so, when it overloads. Then put Boris back in the saddle. Eventually, I put Vasilevsky in command of it.



Klydon -> RE: Blizzard! (7/1/2011 2:52:42 PM)

I usually leave Boris with Stavka. Of course in a game I have going vs the AI, Boris got canned early and Zhukov got put in charge.

Guards armies: They give any unit attached to them a 5 bump to their moral base as long as the army is not overloaded. This bump does not stack with a guards division bump of 5. Basically, treat it as another shock army. None of those moral bumps stack anymore. (unfortunately). I would put your guards divisions in non shock/non guards armies and put regulars in the guards/shock army. That way you have the largest pool of troops possible with a moral bump.



Sabre21 -> RE: Blizzard! (7/1/2011 3:24:24 PM)

There is no limit to the number of Guards cavalry divisions and I think the merging of rifle brigades to divisions was pushed off till a later date. Flavio should know when that is, I think it is June 42 now but I am not sure.



Flaviusx -> RE: Blizzard! (7/1/2011 3:26:15 PM)

Rifle brigade merges become available in May 42.



M60A3TTS -> RE: Blizzard! (7/1/2011 3:30:31 PM)

Practically speaking, what does a bump to the morale base do? If it just allows you to train up to that level it seems somewhat counterproductive. It would imply you're best off putting inexperienced units in shock armies.



wpurdom -> RE: Blizzard! (7/1/2011 6:22:22 PM)

quote:

What do Guard Armies do? Do they have special abilities, or are they just very elite typists at HQ?


What I've always wanted to know.



Q-Ball -> Butcher's Bill (7/1/2011 6:24:29 PM)

Feb 26, 1942:

Last Call!

We continued the attacks around Moscow and Z-Town, as well as opportunity attacks up and down the line.

This turn, we inflicted about 30,000 casualties on the Germans, for the same number of Soviets, as our attacks tapered off. The losses were even, though, as most of our attacks were designed to be "Sure Things", in order to get units some wins, or just kill Germans, which is grand fun of course.

Moscow:
We failed to take Moscow. We have the city, though, in a bit of vice-grip. I am digging NW of the City, in a salient that Tarhunnas is going to have to eliminate.

I am moving units to the shoulders of this, to prevent a wholesale cut-off. I don't think he has the Panzer strength to really do that, though, anytime soon. My hope is that we hang around into the spring, so he has to use forces to bludgeon forward rather than using them in better attack terrain in the south.

Z-Town:
Tarhunnas broke through to Z-Town, again, but this time we took it. We isolated it, but rather than wait for him to break the pocket, I lined up 18 units (yes, 3 from every adjacent hex), and attacked. The defenders routed out of there.

This is important, because we cleared the Dnepr River line. I am pulling back over the Dnepr now, and will dig, and await the inevitable attempt to push me back to the Crimea and Sea of Azov.

Snow:
In preparation for Snow, I did put a little depth around in order to dig, but I don't anticipate major German offensives.

He might attack the Dnepr line, which would be smart right now. I am vulnerable, and can't do much about that right now, since my units there are in sorry shape. I am sure that I will have to pull-back on the Crimea eventually, but I am hoping to push that off until late Spring.

I anticipate heavy attacks around Moscow as well, to clear that bulge.

Other than Dnepr and Moscow, I don't think the Germans will do much in the Snow. With less than 500 operable tanks at the moment, he just doesn't have the Panzer strength for a major push.

I will post a full map of the front next turn. First, the stats:

Butcher's Bill:

See below; the Wehrmacht is pretty cooked at the moment. He may have alot in the Manpower pool, so the Germans could recuperate pretty quickly, but at the moment the Wehrmacht is still hurting.

My losses are no joke; I have alot of unready and shell units, and I really need to build some units back up. I am starting to form reserves. My Tank Strength hovers around 3,300, with empty tank pools.



[image]local://upfiles/6931/D1113BB6BAFC48FA8DCF4AEDF96E1E5B.jpg[/image]



Klydon -> RE: Blizzard! (7/1/2011 6:24:43 PM)

Units with higher moral can fight better and can advance better in enemy territory. It also helps raise the margin of the unit above the "unready" threshold. (moral + ToE > 100%). 



bigbaba -> RE: Blizzard! (7/1/2011 7:11:27 PM)

oh my, he is down to 650 panzers? thats 1 1/2 1939 panzerdivisions TOE!

nice job killing his armor.

you have a 5:1 suoeriority in tanks now. and i would bet at this time most of them are T-34?

i realy doubt that he can launch any huge attacks with this burned out panzerdivisions in the next time.



Mehring -> RE: Blizzard! (7/1/2011 7:44:11 PM)

Wow! That's been quite a meat grinder. Looks like you're both really beaten up. It's propbably a question now of who recuperates faster. Tanks will probably replace relatively quickly but it looks to me like you have seriously low levels of guns and manpower which might take a while to replenish. Unfortunately, the game doesn't tell you how many and what guns you produce a turn. In such situations I screenie the production window each turn and compare it to the levels next turn.

Caution! You are a lot weaker than I thought.

What's your manpower and armaments production?



Q-Ball -> RE: Blizzard! (7/1/2011 7:57:38 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mehring

Wow! That's been quite a meat grinder. Looks like you're both really beaten up. It's propbably a question now of who recuperates faster. Tanks will probably replace relatively quickly but it looks to me like you have seriously low levels of guns and manpower which might take a while to replenish. Unfortunately, the game doesn't tell you how many and what guns you produce a turn. In such situations I screenie the production window each turn and compare it to the levels next turn.

Caution! You are a lot weaker than I thought.

What's your manpower and armaments production?



I will post full production in a few turns, but at the moment, we have 135,000 Manpower in the pool, and about 450,000 Armaments. In other words, we are producing enough armaments, we could use more guys.

Last turn, I received 103,500 in the Manpower pool as new production from Manpower Centers. Not sure how that compares to most games at this stage. I have cleared and am repairing Manpower Centers that I figure to keep (some I probably won't keep).

Overall, my units are not in great shape, and I know that. This is tempered by the fact that I know he has alot of units in terrible shape. I routed 4 Wehrmacht divisions this turn, which means they are at the end of their rope.

Tarhunnas is very aggressive, and will punch until he has nothing left. All through the Blizzard, he was launching 4-8 attacks a turn.

At this point, to paraphrase Glanz, we are like two punch-drunk boxers staggering around and attempting to land blows. Remember, I was launching almost 100 attacks per turn all winter; while that killed the Wehrmacht, it certainly killed alot of my guys as well.

In Idaho v Scar, the Soviets have lost 21,000 AFV, or about 1,500 LESS than I have. Of course, that game is in July of 1943, and this is in February of 1942!!!! It's been an AFV bloodbath!



Flaviusx -> RE: Blizzard! (7/1/2011 8:05:51 PM)

You are both fried.

5 million is low, Q-ball. Your arty situation is tolerable but not amazing, ditto tanks. But seriously, you want about a million more men in the field than you've got at the moment. Stop and rest, you surely have many depleted units. Let Red Army take on replacements. How much manpower are you getting a turn? If it's less than 100kish a turn...not good.

The Germans didn't come out of that winter too badly, imo. He should be well over 3 million by summer. His arty is intact, as is his airforce. I doubt his tank losses are decisive, you just cleared his AFV inventory of obsolete tanks.

I don't like what you are doing around Moscow, but we'll see how that shakes out. Taking the Dnepr bend is nice, however, that firms up your southern lines.



Flaviusx -> RE: Blizzard! (7/1/2011 8:08:59 PM)

You can work with 103k per turn, but you are not flush. This is going to drop below 100k from 43 on, btw, as the manpower multipliers go down.

You're going to have to be careful with your manpower.



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