Random weather - Again (Full Version)

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Tarhunnas -> Random weather - Again (6/10/2011 8:52:47 AM)

I am in turn 50 of a GC with random weather. The date is May 28 1942. All of May up to now has been snow in the North Soviet zone. The rivers are frozen. See here! I checked the random weather table and discovered that the snow in Moscow can actually continue until June 19! [X(] I mean, this is crazy! Looking at the weather for Moscow right now IRL, it is 22 degrees centigrade!

I thought I can imagine the late snow is light mud, an unusually dry spring, but the ice! The rivers are still frozen and present no obstacle to combat and movement! No way there will be frozen rivers in Moscow in the middle of June!

I really think the random weather table has to be revised.




Theng -> RE: Random weather - Again (6/10/2011 2:04:36 PM)

Ever heard of climate change? and no I am not kidding. The historic records are on the side of the game. Today's weather and climate has already measurably changed.




Tarhunnas -> RE: Random weather - Again (6/10/2011 2:50:34 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Xian

Ever heard of climate change? and no I am not kidding. The historic records are on the side of the game. Today's weather and climate has already measurably changed.


Hardly to the extent that there was snow in Moscow in June in the 1940s!




Q-Ball -> RE: Random weather - Again (6/10/2011 4:44:18 PM)

Global Warming or no, Snow is ridiculous. It's possible that Moscow had a cold snap or two into May, but not the kind of sustained cold temperatures it takes to create ICE conditions, or snow accumulation on the ground. No way!




fbs -> RE: Random weather - Again (6/10/2011 4:54:50 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas

I am in turn 50 of a GC with random weather. The date is May 28 1942. All of May up to now has been snow in the North Soviet zone.




Just wait until you get a giant tsunami that wipes all your units and leaves a huge oiler stranded in the middle of Moscow...




PeeDeeAitch -> RE: Random weather - Again (6/10/2011 6:31:50 PM)

I blame JAMiAM.




Joel Billings -> RE: Random weather - Again (6/10/2011 10:03:39 PM)

According to the random weather table, there's a 20% chance of snow each turn in the North Zone. The odds of getting snow the entire month (and it would take many turns of snow or a late April Blizzard to get freezing of the rivers) is extremely low. But that's the nature of "random" weather.




Scook_99 -> RE: Random weather - Again (6/10/2011 10:55:54 PM)

I do have to ask, where can you find the weather data for the 1940s? I have done some quick searches and no avail. I am pretty sure there have been freak years where snow and ice have been on the ground in June. For example, in Iowa, 2, maybe 3 years ago, it started snowing in October, and that snow didn't melt until the middle of June the next year.




Theng -> RE: Random weather - Again (6/11/2011 12:37:08 AM)

We don't have to go back that far actually. There was snow in Moscow on June 10th 2008, and June 4th 2003, and June 5th 2010 (a tiny bit), before that we have to go back to June 1963 for snowfall. Now we can argue about the amount of snow...

http://www.city-data.com/forum/idaho/351163-snow-moscow-today-june-10th-2008-a.html

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/a-rare-june-snow-falls-on-parts-of-moscow/238054.html

http://www.mymoscowblog.com/?p=144




Scook_99 -> RE: Random weather - Again (6/11/2011 12:45:10 AM)

Thank you! I like real data before I come to conclusions. Ice pack seems rather improbable just based on the above links, but then, not impossible.




Baron von Beer -> RE: Random weather - Again (6/11/2011 2:25:55 AM)

Xian, you do realize that the first link is Moscow, Idaho, USA (Home of University of Idaho), and the last link was not snow, but from trees?




Theng -> RE: Random weather - Again (6/11/2011 3:14:16 AM)

Yes, but only after I posted them. Damn poplar trees!




Baron von Beer -> RE: Random weather - Again (6/11/2011 5:45:50 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Xian

Yes, but only after I posted them. Damn poplar trees!


They're the cleverest of all trees after all. [:D]




JAMiAM -> RE: Random weather - Again (6/11/2011 6:39:34 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Baron von Beer


quote:

ORIGINAL: Xian

Yes, but only after I posted them. Damn poplar trees!


They're the cleverest of all trees after all. [:D]

Everyone likes a clever tree. It makes them...poplar...[;)]




Speedysteve -> RE: Random weather - Again (6/11/2011 7:36:40 AM)

ba.....duh.....dum [;)]




henri51 -> RE: Random weather - Again (6/11/2011 2:24:50 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Speedy

ba.....duh.....dum [;)]


On another thread, I proposed that the game use a randomly chosen month (say January) among say 50 years, and use the weather for that month.If the numbers are not available for Russia, the numbers for areas of North America are probably similar.

And as one who lives in an area with weather pretty much equivalent to Moscow, I can vouch that snow in June is possible (I have even seen snow fall in July), but that its effect is felt for less than a day, after which it melts and its effect is equivalent to rain. So the game's making it possible to have a month or even a week of snow in June is highly unrealistic.




Joel Billings -> RE: Random weather - Again (6/11/2011 7:25:45 PM)

So we're good then because we don't have snow weeks in June. [:)]




Tarhunnas -> RE: Random weather - Again (6/11/2011 8:02:08 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Joel Billings

So we're good then because we don't have snow weeks in June. [:)]


It says in the manual (the updated one that came with the latest beta) that the May weather is in effect up to June 19, and that includes snow. Has that been changed or am I misunderstanding something? Sorry in that case.




Joel Billings -> RE: Random weather - Again (6/11/2011 10:06:24 PM)

My bad. You're absolutely right. Could be snow in June, although again, the chance you'll still have a freeze then is probably pretty low, but assuming a late April Blizzard, anything is possible.




morganbj -> RE: Random weather - Again (6/13/2011 12:06:25 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Scook_99

... in Iowa, 2, maybe 3 years ago, it started snowing in October, and that snow didn't melt until the middle of June the next year.

More evidence of glogal warming. [:D]




Taipan61 -> RE: Random weather - Again (6/14/2011 10:47:19 AM)

The thing I do hate with historical weather is just that...Everyone knows the exact turn when mud/snow/blizzard appears, and accommodates many turns in advance for this situation. The same situation occurs when playing the AI. Yeah, it is very nice to know from opening turn in 41 that you will get mud on such-n-such turn and get the terrible winter of 41-42, but that in itself is very a-historical. Just as a-historical is not having a clue what the weather will be like in one weeks time if the random weather option is chosen.

What needs to be added to the game is a "forecasted weather" information tab.

The tab would advise the predicted weather for the next turn. If the historical weather option is chosen this predicted weather is what will happen, however if "random weather" is chosen this predicted weather will have a good chance of happening, but the result is not absolute. At least then you have a turns grace knowing what you could be up against next turn, instead of suddenly being up to your neck in mud and your panzers way out of position, while the weeks before had been full of brilliant sunshine.





Tarhunnas -> RE: Random weather - Again (6/14/2011 12:19:19 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Taipan

The thing I do hate with historical weather is just that...Everyone knows the exact turn when mud/snow/blizzard appears, and accommodates many turns in advance for this situation. The same situation occurs when playing the AI. Yeah, it is very nice to know from opening turn in 41 that you will get mud on such-n-such turn and get the terrible winter of 41-42, but that in itself is very a-historical. Just as a-historical is not having a clue what the weather will be like in one weeks time if the random weather option is chosen.

What needs to be added to the game is a "forecasted weather" information tab.

The tab would advise the predicted weather for the next turn. If the historical weather option is chosen this predicted weather is what will happen, however if "random weather" is chosen this predicted weather will have a good chance of happening, but the result is not absolute. At least then you have a turns grace knowing what you could be up against next turn, instead of suddenly being up to your neck in mud and your panzers way out of position, while the weeks before had been full of brilliant sunshine.



The problem now is that random weather is too random and non-random weather is too predictable. Something along the lines of what you suggest would be good, though what you say is not too far from how random weather works now, it is just that the table is a bit "wild and crazy".

An other alternative would be to let the historical weather have a chance of being either 1 or a ˝ turn early or late. That means that both players know that mud is likely to occur on turn 18, but i might occur in the German turn 17 or in the Soviet turn 17, or in any player turn of turn 19. Similarly when it ends and snow starts. Thus the uncertainty would go both ways and not as now create unlikely maneuvers because you know that there will be mud the next enemy turn. The end of mud could be adjusted so that the length of mud would very likely be the same as non-random weather so as not to alter balance too much.





Ridgeway -> RE: Random weather - Again (6/14/2011 2:20:31 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas


quote:

ORIGINAL: Taipan

The thing I do hate with historical weather is just that...Everyone knows the exact turn when mud/snow/blizzard appears, and accommodates many turns in advance for this situation. The same situation occurs when playing the AI. Yeah, it is very nice to know from opening turn in 41 that you will get mud on such-n-such turn and get the terrible winter of 41-42, but that in itself is very a-historical. Just as a-historical is not having a clue what the weather will be like in one weeks time if the random weather option is chosen.

What needs to be added to the game is a "forecasted weather" information tab.

The tab would advise the predicted weather for the next turn. If the historical weather option is chosen this predicted weather is what will happen, however if "random weather" is chosen this predicted weather will have a good chance of happening, but the result is not absolute. At least then you have a turns grace knowing what you could be up against next turn, instead of suddenly being up to your neck in mud and your panzers way out of position, while the weeks before had been full of brilliant sunshine.



The problem now is that random weather is too random and non-random weather is too predictable. Something along the lines of what you suggest would be good, though what you say is not too far from how random weather works now, it is just that the table is a bit "wild and crazy".

An other alternative would be to let the historical weather have a chance of being either 1 or a ˝ turn early or late. That means that both players know that mud is likely to occur on turn 18, but i might occur in the German turn 17 or in the Soviet turn 17, or in any player turn of turn 19. Similarly when it ends and snow starts. Thus the uncertainty would go both ways and not as now create unlikely maneuvers because you know that there will be mud the next enemy turn. The end of mud could be adjusted so that the length of mud would very likely be the same as non-random weather so as not to alter balance too much.


That is not a bad idea. The other possibility that I can think of would be to add a "rain" weather event, with movement etc. effects similar to snow, and provide that there could be no mud unless there had been a rain or snow event in one of the previous 2 weeks or so. This would mitigate the most catastrophic effects of random "mud" in 1941 -- that it comes literally out of the blue with instantaneous effect.




KamilS -> RE: Random weather - Again (6/14/2011 11:03:32 PM)

I assume these numbers mean weather roll after modifications. If so, why I didn't get snow or mud? I am referring to results from 1st (Europe and south Soviet) and 3rd (south Soviet) winter turn


[image]local://upfiles/37480/5CC179338AA046D59D1B55705E433630.jpg[/image]




Joel Billings -> RE: Random weather - Again (6/14/2011 11:19:30 PM)

Because of the rule that is in the readme file from several versions ago:


Missing Rule – Section 22.2 should contain an additional exception that states there will be no snow or mud during December 1941 and January 1942 (only Blizzard).




KamilS -> RE: Random weather - Again (6/14/2011 11:23:56 PM)

quote:

Joel Billings

Because of the rule that is in the readme file from several versions ago:


Missing Rule – Section 22.2 should contain an additional exception that states there will be no snow or mud during December 1941 and January 1942 (only Blizzard).


I don't underestand. According to manual there is max one of each during dec and jan.

Do you mean that there was update and now random weather doesn't apply to December and January?




KamilS -> RE: Random weather - Again (6/15/2011 12:47:24 PM)

quote:

Joel Billings

Because of the rule that is in the readme file from several versions ago:


Missing Rule – Section 22.2 should contain an additional exception that states there will be no snow or mud during December 1941 and January 1942 (only Blizzard).


Yes, you are right it was changed in V1.03 Beta 2 – January 21, 2011. So all this talk about how random weather balances itself - Germans get mud during summer soviets snow during blizzard was not true. What is the point of random weather then, if only Germans suffer?

I am extremely angry, because in game options I should have been informed that choosing random weather equals unbalancing game. I would never have choosen that stupid option if I knew about that change. Obviously reading manual doesn't help in understanding the game.

During summer, I got mud on turn 5th. Not only lost turn and got mu panzers badly damaged, but I lost 3 mot div and 1/3 pz div. Now I learn that Soviet won't find themselves in similar unfavourable conditions.

Thank you very much.




Tarhunnas -> RE: Random weather - Again (6/15/2011 1:00:52 PM)

Random weather leaves things to luck. Unfavorable weather at the wrong time can benefit the Germans or it can benefit the Soviets. Less mud in the autumn or less blizzard in winter will be a big help to the Germans, while obviously mud in the summer will upset the German offensive. It will usually even out, but of course if you have a lot of good or bad luck in a game it will change the balance. If you look at history, a mild winter in 1941 would have "unbalanced" the second world war in favor of the Germans.




KamilS -> RE: Random weather - Again (6/15/2011 1:08:37 PM)

quote:

Tarhunnas

Random weather leaves things to luck. Unfavorable weather at the wrong time can benefit the Germans or it can benefit the Soviets. Less mud in the autumn or less blizzard in winter will be a big help to the Germans



How can it even up? I don't really see it.

Snow can appear only in February, when Germans are quite strong. It would have impact in December and January, but it won't happened. No snow in Dec and Jan, should equal no mud in Jul and Aug otherwise there is no balance at all.


So I guess there is unwritten rule, that only people with lots of luck should try to play as Germans.





henri51 -> RE: Random weather - Again (6/15/2011 1:13:00 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas

Random weather leaves things to luck. Unfavorable weather at the wrong time can benefit the Germans or it can benefit the Soviets. Less mud in the autumn or less blizzard in winter will be a big help to the Germans, while obviously mud in the summer will upset the German offensive. It will usually even out, but of course if you have a lot of good or bad luck in a game it will change the balance. If you look at history, a mild winter in 1941 would have "unbalanced" the second world war in favor of the Germans.



Not in the early game: unfavorable weather in 1941 or even 1942 can favor only the Soviets, since it is the Germans who are on the offensive.

Henri




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