RE: A look at Barbarossa. (Full Version)

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Orm -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/12/2011 11:19:49 AM)

An overwiev of the south front. Not as nice as I would like but enough for me to survive one more impulse at least.

[image]local://upfiles/29130/B69854793E424AC8AAEFF40B2D8C5DC8.jpg[/image]
Picture taken at end of Allied impulse #10, Jul/Aug 1941 (Turn 2 of 5)



Red Prince -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/12/2011 1:04:51 PM)

And that, my friends, is why I never put my faith in Lady Luck. [:)] Just when I have a chance to move forward (or backward, due to some smart moves by my opponent), the turn ends. Well, I knew that could happen. I just wish I had actually managed to block those supplies from the Allies. It would have been a principle-of-the-thing kind of Victory, after having lost any shot at controlling Murmansk.

Well, I suppose it is time for damage-control yet again. I'll see what I can do with my reinforcements. If I can win the Initiative just one more time, I can try to knock one enemy Front out of the war. I'll also need at least 1 Fine Impulse for that, but I can hope. It is some consolation to know that the Soviets are going to be spread almost as thin as I am for just a little longer. Unless he builds every last MIL he has on hand. And, with any luck, at least the extreme southern front will be in clear weather for some time yet.

Good hunting, Orm! [sm=00000054.gif] I'll see you on the battlefield!



Centuur -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/12/2011 4:12:17 PM)

Nice play by Orm. I liked the attack on Pskov being made this impulse.
Also: I think the German is going to think again about sacrificing the Finnish Guards at Vologda next time. A white print OOS and disorganised is much better than an ARM division in the same situation, especially with heavy Russian infantry in range...

Things are looking good form my point of view for the Soviets... Bad weather coming up and the Germans aren't doing to well...



Red Prince -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/12/2011 4:22:28 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

Nice play by Orm. I liked the attack on Pskov being made this impulse.
Also: I think the German is going to think again about sacrificing the Finnish Guards at Vologda next time. A white print OOS and disorganised is much better than an ARM division in the same situation, especially with heavy Russian infantry in range...

Things are looking good form my point of view for the Soviets... Bad weather coming up and the Germans aren't doing to well...


Sacrificing the Finnish unit was the result of a mistake I made in planning my movement. I originally thought I was going to move the 2 armor/mech units one hex east, blocking the Infantry from getting to Vologda. However, this would have exposed the local HQ to a desperation attack that could easily have knocked him out of the game. So, I didn't do it.

When the attacks came, I forgot that I had not moved those units, and therefore I thought the division was safe for another impulse. I was also busy moaning about the rotten roll, unaware that I'd be getting better rolls for the other attacks.

So, this was more of a bone-headed error, rather than a tactical one. Doesn't change anything, but I don't have any brilliant "This is what I was thinking . . . " It's more like: "Oops. I shoulda been thinking!"



Orm -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/12/2011 4:34:20 PM)

Here is a picture of this turns losses.

[image]local://upfiles/29130/12F728CECC35472BAFD3D52F74C2A067.jpg[/image]
Picture taken at end of turn, Jul/Aug 1941 (Turn 2 of 5)



Orm -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/12/2011 4:36:11 PM)

And a picture of the victory totals.

I feel I need to post this now since this might be the last turn that I am ahead. [;)]

Edit: In my last impulse I recaptured 2 victory points.
[image]local://upfiles/29130/53D904F7F2E64A479458846D13EB7B0B.jpg[/image]
Picture taken at end of turn, Jul/Aug 1941 (Turn 2 of 5)



Red Prince -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/12/2011 5:25:06 PM)

[sm=00000003.gif]



composer99 -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/12/2011 7:14:18 PM)

The USSR ended up taking only 4 bp more in losses than Germany - although it did lose twice as many corps/army-size units.

In a global campaign I would be very worried as Germany with that kind of loss profile (bp-wise) in summer 1941 knowing the Angry Green Giant is half a year or so away from entering the war.

However, the composition of the losses is in Germany's favour (apart from the fact that 2 of Germany's corps losses were ARM), Germany needs only 2-3 objectives per turn to turn things around, and it will have an o-chit in its pocket come the Nov/Dec turn. Also, Germany still has a big advantage in terms of unit numbers in the south.

Still too close to call, IMO. Which is a good thing (except for Red Prince & Orm, of course, who I am sure would prefer lopsided results in their respective favour).



Red Prince -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/12/2011 8:14:46 PM)

I may have made a mistake at the very start of this scenario, after the first turn, which will haunt me. I wasn't very smart in choosing what to build, and my gearing limits are all pretty low. In a short game like this, you really have to have a building plan in place from the start, and try to get everything you want to build on the map when you want it. That's what I might have messed up. My reinforcements are going to be thin over the coming months, though I'll probably have a good number to put on the map for that Nov/Dec turn, which fits nicely with the O-chit.

I think that after the first few impulses of this turn, I probably had the psychological advantage. Now, I think Orm does. I'm worried, even though I have a good southern front. Pskov and Leningrad, if reinforced with powerful units, could be a major pain, potentially cutting supply to my North and Central forces. With poor weather, which means shorter supply lines, on the way, I have to take advantage of the few opportunities I'll have to make great attacks, and I'll also have to start thinking defensively -- not one of my strengths.



Red Prince -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/12/2011 9:41:15 PM)

It turns out I've been doubly spared. At the start of the Sep/Oct 1941 turn I won the Initiative roll, without having to use my re-roll. I think I'll be going first. [:)] Particularly since the weather has remained Fine (Die=4). I made some errors I'd rather not compound this turn. It's nice to start with the weather on my side.

In between turns I built:
  • 1 x LND-2
  • 1 x MECH
  • 1 x MOT
  • 2 x INF
  • 1 x CAV
  • 1 x AA (this was that gun I lost the first turn)
  • 1 x Pilot

Additionally, I got 3 City Based Volunteers onto the map this turn: the Riga GARR, the Kiev MIL, and Vlassov (also in Kiev). With things still in my favor on the clock, I better make good use of what I've got. For the first time since the very first impulse, my airforce is close to the front!

This is just the bombers:

[image]local://upfiles/38062/DC779ACA4A664EE3AE628B4FC6CD1A70.jpg[/image]
Picture taken at beginning of Axis impulse #1, Sep/Oct 1941 (Turn 3 of 5)



Red Prince -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/12/2011 10:50:49 PM)

I really wanted to do a massive air strike, but I just can't waste the Fine impulse, so I limit myself to 4. Three of them are on Soviet HQs, and the last is hitting a stack in the south. This is the Ground Strike on Yeremenko in the North:

[image]local://upfiles/38062/9961B6708D7D41FF8BB997C4DC694A99.jpg[/image]
Picture taken at Ground Strikes of Axis impulse #1, Sep/Oct 1941 (Turn 3 of 5)



Red Prince -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/12/2011 10:55:00 PM)

In the South, I sent a fighter escort for the strike on Zhukov, but the USSR didn't send interceptors, so I just have to hope the AA doesn't reduce my Tactical factors too much.

The strike on Timoshenko was intercepted, however, and that should be a +1/-1 combat in favor of the MiG-1.

[image]local://upfiles/38062/CF0C923DD3064083B03576E00104FA05.jpg[/image]
Picture taken at Ground Strikes of Axis impulse #1, Sep/Oct 1941 (Turn 3 of 5)



Red Prince -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/12/2011 11:03:01 PM)

Turned out to be the right decision for Orm, as the MiG forced my bomber to abort. My bomber did the same to the MiG, but that isn't much consolation. So, at least one of his HQs will remain available to him for a while longer.

[image]local://upfiles/38062/B41D9AFBF244428E98C3414AF8999D59.jpg[/image]
Picture taken at Ground Strike, Air-to-Air Combat Digression, of Axis impulse #1, Sep/Oct 1941 (Turn 3 of 5)



Red Prince -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/12/2011 11:05:48 PM)

The Soviet AA fires at my bomber hitting Zhukov's hex . . .

[image]local://upfiles/38062/5C0FFDAB2FB64898B968E96A80B8C43F.jpg[/image]
Picture taken at Ground Strike, Plot AA Fire, of Axis impulse #1, Sep/Oct 1941 (Turn 3 of 5)



Pandemic -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/12/2011 11:59:58 PM)

what was the decision behind not directly assaulting Leningrad? I havent played the board game! Just a lack of forces or somethng else?



Shannon V. OKeets -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/13/2011 1:01:51 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Pandemic

what was the decision behind not directly assaulting Leningrad? I havent played the board game! Just a lack of forces or somethng else?

See post 168 for what is in Leningrad. Being in a swamp doubes the combat factors and there are bonuses for the presence of the city. The attackers also have to cross a river which halves their strength unless an engineer is used. I think there were 11 strength factors (3 units) in Leningrad which are worth 22 on defense so an attack would require a massive commitment of units for a so-so attack. Germany can take the city but a lot of other stuff wouldn't get accomplished.



composer99 -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/13/2011 1:09:55 AM)

Yes, usually Leningrad gets screened in a larger game and then blasted with an o-chit. Although the die roll modifiers are steeper in the winter, often that is a good time to attack as the swamp is treated as forest, reducing the strength of the units.



Red Prince -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/13/2011 2:00:41 AM)

Sorry about that long pause. A friend in Italy called me for the first time in a month . . .

So, where were we? Oh, yes. I was about to grumble about the 3 point reduction the AA defending Zhukov managed to get against my bombers. It'll be a miracle now to hit any of these with bombs.

[image]local://upfiles/38062/0C8C8CB78B0C4393923B6C64369903EE.jpg[/image]
Picture taken at Ground Strike, AA Fire, of Axis impulse #1, Sep/Oct 1941 (Turn 3 of 5)



Red Prince -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/13/2011 2:03:48 AM)

Yeremenko, along with his personal guards, got it in the northern Ground Strike:

[image]local://upfiles/38062/B996C21B45624084A11A84C91DCE7749.jpg[/image]
Picture taken at Ground Strike of Axis impulse #1, Sep/Oct 1941 (Turn 3 of 5)



Red Prince -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/13/2011 2:07:07 AM)

Adding insult to injury in the hex Zhukov is in. Here, I actually rolled a '2' for one of my rolls . . . but it was against the AA gun that took shots at me earlier. It would have ended up disorganized anyway, but since that doesn't happen unitl the end of the Ground Strikes, the '2' was wasted.

[image]local://upfiles/38062/29A5C03E8AAA4200ADC792B99D83C854.jpg[/image]
Picture taken at Ground Strike of Axis impulse #1, Sep/Oct 1941 (Turn 3 of 5)



Red Prince -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/13/2011 2:09:52 AM)

In the final strike, I nailed the 1st Motorized Army, but not the Mechanized unit:

[image]local://upfiles/38062/3D9CB2A0EFA04C0EAA4543FDF72FFEB6.jpg[/image]
Picture taken at Ground Strike of Axis impulse #1, Sep/Oct 1941 (Turn 3 of 5)



Red Prince -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/13/2011 2:17:38 AM)

One Russian HQ immobilized, out of 3 targeted. I guess I can live with that. I have two units in Breslau that will have a tough time reaching the front if the weather doesn't stay clear, so I railed the 8-5 Armor to Kharkov, and the 5-4 Infantry went to Stalino. Both are fairly secure, with other defenders nearby, and if they are needed Rundstedt is also close at hand.

I'm going to wait until morning to make my Land Movement choices. I want to play a little smarter than I have been, if I can, so I have to really think about the possibilities here. Until then, all.



michaelbaldur -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/13/2011 2:39:21 AM)

the 2 hardest hexes to take on the map...

is Leningrad : swamp, rivers, winter troops, half tactical, half shore bombardment and supply

and Calcutta: swamp (never freezes) rivers, half tactical, half shore bombardment and supply

any factors you place there gets 4 times bigger for each odds level he had before (when you add 1 factor worth of land unit, the attacker need 4 more combat factors * his odds.. to keep the same odds)... and the attacker need double the number of aircraft and ships ..

for a 4-1
if you have 5 factors there (10) . the attacker will need 80 factors to get a 4-1.
and if you add 1 factor there (12) ..the attacker would need 96 factors to keep his 4-1 (16 more)
and 1 more factor there (14) ..the attacker would need 112 factors to keep his 4-1 (16 more)

so if he had a 4-1 last turn and you add one combat factor .. he will need to find 16 more combat factors to keep the same odds


for a 9-1
if you have 5 factors there (10) . the attacker will need 180 factors to get a 9-1.
and if you add 1 factor there (12) ..the attacker would need 216 factors to keep his 4-1 (36 more)
and 1 more factor there (14) ..the attacker would need 252 factors to keep his 4-1 (36 more)

so if he had a 9-1 last turn and you add one combat factor .. he will need to find 36 more combat factors to keep the same odds



Red Prince -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/13/2011 11:11:23 AM)

As I said, I'm trying to play smarter. I'm not doing well with that so far. I realized I should have left at least 1 Air Mission for rebasing. Oh, well.

I'm only making 1 attack this impulse, a 50:7 Blitz on the hex west of Kursk. The defenders could reduce this to 3.5:1, which has a 50% chance to disrupt all of my attacking units even if I won the Fractional Odds roll. However, this would use up 1/3 of the Soviet bomber forces in the 1st impulse. Using a single bomber doesn't offer enough of an odds reduction, so there is no air support. Automatic victory! A morale boost!

[image]local://upfiles/38062/152C3F2D5A924A289091143B3C0BC271.jpg[/image]
Picture taken during Land Combat Resolution of Axis impulse #1, Sep/Oct 1941 (Turn 3 of 5)



Red Prince -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/13/2011 11:24:11 AM)

Here is an overview of the full battlefield at Zoom Level 2. At the far right-hand side, along the edge of the image, you can see the where the separation is between European-Map Russia and Asian-Map Russia.

[image]local://upfiles/38062/CFD0C9B844E54CBDA09C0E5658C29886.jpg[/image]
Picture taken at end of Axis impulse #1, Sep/Oct 1941 (Turn 3 of 5)



Red Prince -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/13/2011 11:25:44 AM)

So, here are some of the things I did that I hope were smart. For starters, the only place my ARM reinforcements are likely to be useful this turn is in an attempt to retake Pskov. I need 3 more cities to get a draw, 4 for a victory. If this one survives past this turn, then I probably won't have the opportunity to take any other city so easily. I'm going to need supply, so Mannerheim is on his way from the North. I also did have to pull 1 Armor Corps back from the front to block another unit from escaping Leningrad.
[image]local://upfiles/38062/2D7AEB388A3A4E2483A611BDC86D0DF1.jpg[/image]
Picture taken at end of Axis impulse #1, Sep/Oct 1941 (Turn 3 of 5)



Red Prince -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/13/2011 11:27:04 AM)

Here's what that did to the Northern Front. There's a good Mechanized unit under von Leeb, and an Infantry Corps stacked with the disorganized bomber here.

[image]local://upfiles/38062/6982EB63AAF74EE9812C5A1F78B2AA96.jpg[/image]
Picture taken at end of Axis impulse #1, Sep/Oct 1941 (Turn 3 of 5)



Red Prince -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/13/2011 11:36:22 AM)

Between Smolensk and Bryansk, I have managed to squeeze 3 of the Soviet units out of supply. Behind the Flyout is a 4-3 Militia, which can be attacked at good odds, but only if these OOS units are brought back into supply. It can be restored, but at a cost; since the Ground Strike on Yeremenko succeeded, somebody somewhere nearby will have to pull back to get it done, or the 33rd Infantry will have to advance from Tula.

[image]local://upfiles/38062/46E12FB758F249E4AC575795445E477E.jpg[/image]
Picture taken at end of Axis impulse #1, Sep/Oct 1941 (Turn 3 of 5)



Red Prince -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/13/2011 11:37:20 AM)

In the South, I've done my best to limit Orm's ability to maneuver, but I lost an opportunity last turn when I failed to move up closer to Kursk from the south after taking Kharkov. The truth is I got spooked after losing 2 Panzer Corps, and I didn't want to expose troops. I should have, though. A learning experience, and therefore valuable to me (even if it means I miss out on the win here).

[image]local://upfiles/38062/9089B57926934E4688320ABFA663565D.jpg[/image]
Picture taken at end of Axis impulse #1, Sep/Oct 1941 (Turn 3 of 5)



Red Prince -> RE: A look at Barbarossa. (8/13/2011 11:38:31 AM)

Last turn I could have come off looking daring and brilliant. Alas, the turn ended one impulse too soon. When it did, I had about 30 factors in position to make a grab for Sevastopol, defended at that time by only 3 factors. It would have been a 3:1 attack (at +1 if memory serves). Either way, that's at least a 70% chance to take the city. It would have been a single impulse of diverting those units, too, since they would no longer need to screen. Maybe next time. For now, it's back to the status quo.

[image]local://upfiles/38062/65F3FEF2D14A406DA4F9EA420976E77C.jpg[/image]
Picture taken at end of Axis impulse #1, Sep/Oct 1941 (Turn 3 of 5)



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