RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (Full Version)

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janh -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (10/29/2011 5:41:50 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek
While the original plans for 3rd and 4th Shock Armies were to employ them offensively on the Voroshilovgrad – Stalino axis, I'm starting to think that might not to be a very good idea. I'm not only limited by logistics, especially between Voronezh and Voroshilovgrad, but also by Q-Ball managing quite well his operational retreat. Cancelling offensive operations is premature, but I don't really see them going into February.


Happy New Year! Seems like you arrived at a reasonable conclusion. Is the greatest problem you are facing a lack of mobility (which also ties in with Q-Balls fighting withdrawal using but a few rear guard infantry regiments), or a lack of teeth within your units? Or both? On first look the Red Army seems like a gigantic paper tiger...

Q-Balls strategy seems very sound, preventing you to launch any heavy assaults on a static line, and even giving him a certain degree of initiative on the defense. It is probably the best the Axis can do in blizzards, or on the defense, perhaps also in the later summers if lacking >= lvl 3 fort lines?

I would have guessed that you could have reached for Belgorod, and the open flank his 2nd line entrenchments showed in your earlier recon sitrep, which would have made for some interesting mess -- but with these forces, and Q-Balls strategy, never. You clearly can't make a decisive breakthrough, like had happened back in time. Part of the reason might be that Q-Ball didn't drive his forces to mad exhaustion and set up plans for a defense early enough before ending the advance? He had a very strong Axis Army waiting at first snow. I guess this a great recipe to prevent a heavy blizzard battle, probably the counter-part of the Soviet summer strategies in 41 and 42: Don't drive to hard, and fight slow, flexible withdrawals rather than in static defenses.
Perhaps it is actually not surprising this might be the best compromise, since usually initiative and control in battle are much more important than many other factors and allow even a weaker force to beat a stronger enemy (...or defend at better odds...), at the place and time of choice -- which with a static IgoUgo means you need to prevent the enemy from executing any well-conceived attacks in his phase of a turn, but withdraw just far enough that you are safe, but you still able to perform well-chosen counterattacks?

With the situation as it appears, your decision of halting any major offensives seems reasonable. You could still occupy the terrain he vacates, and gain space for his coming spring offensives before mud before retreating. But otherwise planning ahead and setting up several heavily fortified lines in the rear might be best. Perhaps it is too early to guess, but as soon as it becomes clear whether and where the attempts another summer offensive... I guess this time he will try at least one offensive for prove of concept, and testing 1.05. I am curious to see whether the Germans will have a rather uneventful and easy winter if it continues like this, whether they will be comparable in "relative punch" come summer as they were during 1941?



BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (10/29/2011 6:06:44 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: janh
Happy New Year! Seems like you arrived at a reasonable conclusion. Is the greatest problem you are facing a lack of mobility (which also ties in with Q-Balls fighting withdrawal using but a few rear guard infantry regiments), or a lack of teeth within your units? Or both? On first look the Red Army seems like a gigantic paper tiger...


Your questions is like asking someone trapped in a burning house what's worse, the heat or the smoke :) Really, both are problems. Mobility would be great, because I would generate more attacks. Teeth would be great as well, since I would need to commit less to single attacks to get good odds. Regarding the 1:1 impact, it's a bit uncanny but it's still accounting for about 20% of my victories.

quote:

ORIGINAL: janh
Q-Balls strategy seems very sound, preventing you to launch any heavy assaults on a static line, and even giving him a certain degree of initiative on the defense. It is probably the best the Axis can do in blizzards, or on the defense, perhaps also in the later summers if lacking >= lvl 3 fort lines?


He's setting the example for what I consider the best strategy for the Axis during blizzard. In the defense in the later war, this with the appropiate use of Reserve stance can be really effective to slow down things (or cover an operational retreat). We're still in the Stone Age of WitE playing... over time people will come up with really refined techniques.

quote:

ORIGINAL: janh
I would have guessed that you could have reached for Belgorod, and the open flank his 2nd line entrenchments showed in your earlier recon sitrep, which would have made for some interesting mess -- but with these forces, and Q-Balls strategy, never. You clearly can't make a decisive breakthrough, like had happened back in time.


Haha, Belgorod was only in my wildest dreams janh. Not only with this elastic defense I'm facing, but also because of the absolute lack of reasonable logistics to support that push. Orel, maybe. But Belgorod is just too far away.

quote:

ORIGINAL: janh
Part of the reason might be that Q-Ball didn't drive his forces to mad exhaustion and set up plans for a defense early enough before ending the advance? He had a very strong Axis Army waiting at first snow. I guess this a great recipe to prevent a heavy blizzard battle, probably the counter-part of the Soviet summer strategies in 41 and 42: Don't drive to hard, and fight slow, flexible withdrawals rather than in static defenses.


Not pushing hard at the later stage of Barbarossa used to be a risky proposition if the Soviet had saved a lot of ARM factories. Why? Because not hitting hard during snow, and I mean, really hard, could mean that the Red Army grew in size easily by some extra 500k men. That's about 5 Combined Arms Armies fully equipped. Note that my ability to field new replacements into the lines has been severely limited, until most of my factories have been repaired.

quote:

ORIGINAL: janh
Perhaps it is actually not surprising this might be the best compromise, since usually initiative and control in battle are much more important than many other factors and allow even a weaker force to beat a stronger enemy (...or defend at better odds...), at the place and time of choice -- which with a static IgoUgo means you need to prevent the enemy from executing any well-conceived attacks in his phase of a turn, but withdraw just far enough that you are safe, but you still able to perform well-chosen counterattacks?


I don't think it's either. It really speaks highly of the status of 1.05 - IMHO - that a "common sense" strategy in the context of operational warfare works so neatly.

quote:

ORIGINAL: janh
With the situation as it appears, your decision of halting any major offensives seems reasonable. You could still occupy the terrain he vacates, and gain space for his coming spring offensives before mud before retreating. But otherwise planning ahead and setting up several heavily fortified lines in the rear might be best. Perhaps it is too early to guess, but as soon as it becomes clear whether and where the attempts another summer offensive... I guess this time he will try at least one offensive for prove of concept, and testing 1.05. I am curious to see whether the Germans will have a rather uneventful and easy winter if it continues like this, whether they will be comparable in "relative punch" come summer as they were during 1941?


I'm already working on fortified lines, mostly around Moscow, Voronezh and Rostov. Next on my agenda is Stalingrad (who knows?) and other strategic targets in the Caucasus. I think he'll be able to do anything he wants to, I just hope I'll preempt him from being able to do everything :)



76mm -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (10/29/2011 6:25:22 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek
He's setting the example for what I consider the best strategy for the Axis during blizzard.
************
It really speaks highly of the status of 1.05 - IMHO - that a "common sense" strategy in the context of operational warfare works so neatly.


Actually, this strategy is not new and it has been just as effective from the very beginning.



gingerbread -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (10/30/2011 1:09:46 AM)

This is one of the better documented Soviet blizzard offensives, good job and thanks! Good offensive as well!

With all the data available, i.e. number of pictures, one can get to the details that are usually is lost in the noice:
There have been very few RR repair gnats in the screen shots, did you prepare anything special in the RR repair aspect?

Did you use a general or local method? General would be RR brigades at Front, local would be stuffing the RR brigades into e.g. the Airborne Corps HQ's that arrive in December (locked) and placing them on the lines that are to be prioritized.



BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (10/30/2011 11:44:52 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: 76mm


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek
He's setting the example for what I consider the best strategy for the Axis during blizzard.
************
It really speaks highly of the status of 1.05 - IMHO - that a "common sense" strategy in the context of operational warfare works so neatly.


Actually, this strategy is not new and it has been just as effective from the very beginning.


Yes, you're right. It's not new - I'm just saying he's executed it very well. Do you remember how much people on these forums claimed that it was nonsense?

EDIT: And 1.05 eliminated a couple of its downsides in my opinion.



BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (10/30/2011 11:49:35 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: gingerbread

This is one of the better documented Soviet blizzard offensives, good job and thanks! Good offensive as well!


I'm not sure this is a successful offensive yet. I don't think I'll get any of my late objectives: Kaluga, Orel or Rzhev.

quote:

ORIGINAL: gingerbread
With all the data available, i.e. number of pictures, one can get to the details that are usually is lost in the noice:
There have been very few RR repair gnats in the screen shots, did you prepare anything special in the RR repair aspect?

Did you use a general or local method? General would be RR brigades at Front, local would be stuffing the RR brigades into e.g. the Airborne Corps HQ's that arrive in December (locked) and placing them on the lines that are to be prioritized.


There quite a few of those gnats :)

I attached RR units to the Shock Armies, which are the spine of my offensive axis. This turn I'll attach some more to the 3rd and 4th Shock Armies, as well as the Army commands operating east of Starobelsk.

That's certainly a clever use of Airborne HQ's, but I disbanded them as soon as they became available. I needed those support squads elsewhere :(



gingerbread -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (10/30/2011 1:40:47 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek


quote:

ORIGINAL: gingerbread

This is one of the better documented Soviet blizzard offensives, good job and thanks! Good offensive as well!


I'm not sure this is a successful offensive yet. I don't think I'll get any of my late objectives: Kaluga, Orel or Rzhev.


Well, territorial gains is one aspect of success, and I will not say you have failed there. Another aspect is losses, and here you have been very frugal with information. I'd like to request a screen of the end of Soviet turn 24 loss screen, i.e. last before blizzard, as well as a current. Also, if you decide to load up turn 24, please note the total no of your vehicles, in units and in pool compared with current. Limiting vehicle attrition is one reason for attending to RR per below.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek

quote:

ORIGINAL: gingerbread
With all the data available, i.e. number of pictures, one can get to the details that are usually is lost in the noice:
There have been very few RR repair gnats in the screen shots, did you prepare anything special in the RR repair aspect?

Did you use a general or local method? General would be RR brigades at Front, local would be stuffing the RR brigades into e.g. the Airborne Corps HQ's that arrive in December (locked) and placing them on the lines that are to be prioritized.


There quite a few of those gnats :)

I attached RR units to the Shock Armies, which are the spine of my offensive axis. This turn I'll attach some more to the 3rd and 4th Shock Armies, as well as the Army commands operating east of Starobelsk.

That's certainly a clever use of Airborne HQ's, but I disbanded them as soon as they became available. I needed those support squads elsewhere :(



So how did the Army attached RR brigades do? Did you get 1 hex/turn on the important rail lines?



BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (10/30/2011 3:44:39 PM)

Turn 30 – 8 January 1942

I've been very surprised when I opened this turn. Q-Ball was apparently riled by the amounts of CV I was concentrating on his forces, and deciding that discretion is the better part of valour, has decided to retreat towards Orel. With this and his previous retreat towards Rzhev, my main two Winter operations have become more succesful than I expected, but not for exactly the most convenient reasons.

Operational Situation Report

I'm leaving MP's and supply soft factors display on, so you all can get a better picture of the logistics and mobility of my forces.

In this picture, and from north to south, you can see the positions of Volkhov, Northwestern and Kalinin Front, which are cooperating in the effort of liberating Rzhev

[image]http://img696.imageshack.us/img696/1799/t30rzhevsitrep.png[/image]


I've marked where gingerbread's gnats are working. These brigades in particular are under command of the STAVKA. I really want the Torzhok – Rzhev rail line to be repaired quickly, so I will attach two or three RR brigades to Northwestern Front. In red you can see the line I'd like to have next Spring, following the river lines and including, of course, Rzhev. Q-Ball has almost ceded it to me.

In this picture you can see the messy carpet of units to the rear. These are basically either brigades or crushed Rifle Divisions which are used to keep the forts up where I want them.

Q-Ball position in front of Moscow is very solid, and is hard to find weak spots to concentrate and crush German positions

[image]http://img405.imageshack.us/img405/2206/t30moscowsitrep.png[/image]


I'm realizing that the enveloping move I had envisioned to approach Kaluga from the north was perhaps a bit far fetched. On the other hand it would probably help Rzhev operations to keep pressing, just to divert the already stretched German resources. The Moscow MD army to the south, the 40th, was the one who got so badly mauled last turn. Here you can see how limited is the recovery of these forces when being adjacent to the enemy (I couldn't pull them back because of limited MP's).

And here's the situation in the Tula – Voronezh sector

[image]http://img408.imageshack.us/img408/6074/t30tulavoronezhsitrep.png[/image]


the red line shows the line I'm looking after. Note as well the build up along the Don. 2nd Shock Army (north) is about to achieve its goals. Once it reaches the Oka, will join 1st Shock Army push on to Orel. The other offensive axis seems to have some stout opposition in front of it. There'll be battle there this turn.

Q-Ball doesn't want me to reach the Oskol river

[image]http://img528.imageshack.us/img528/9467/t30southvoronezhsitrep.png[/image]


and unfortunately, I don't think I'll reach it. In this sector I'll remain mostly passive, and will start to dig in – but always poking German soft spots. However, I don't think it's right to be completely passive in the south

[image]http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/508/t30kharkovstalinositrep.png[/image]


Last turn I was pondering what to do with the two southern Shock Armies. I'm running out of time, but I would really want to draw a wedge in the German positions between Kharkov and Stalino. The gnats I assigned to 18th Army have started to work extending my supply line from Starobelsk and it might just work.

Logistics & Organization

This turn I put a whooping 180,000 guys into the front lines. Armaments production has really recovered, reaching 88,250 points this turn. The highest since late July 1941. Many factories have been already repaired, and those which still are damaged are well below 50% damage.

Here you have the soft ground element production figures for the last six turns

[image]http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/2687/t30groundelemprodfigs.png[/image]


I'm capitalizing on the vast Manpower pool I accumulated during the Armament production crush. As soon as that is gone, and at this rate that will be by late February, I might even start accumulating Armament points in the pool. The Red Army is growing in size

[image]http://img443.imageshack.us/img443/369/t30oob.png[/image]


and if losses during January and February don't skyrocket, Q-Ball will be facing in March the biggest Red Army to date. It's ironic that I get this production boost six turns later than it would have been most convenient.

Gingerbread requested a breakdown of figures, here's the updated spreadsheet with ALL the numbers I think that matter in WitE that I've been tracking since Turn 1 (mostly) :)



However, for those who don't want to wade across that data, at the end of the update I'll go over gingerbread requests in an abridged form.

Operations

This turn I have made good use of the 1:1 rule. I decided to trust the Dice Gods and got a couple interesting successes (and a nasty rebuke). I've done a total of 15 attacks, 4 of which have end up in failure.

Kaluga must fall

[image]http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/5300/t30kalugaops.png[/image]


I've managed to really stress German resistance here. Losses haven't been too high and the situation doesn't look too rosy for the Germans. While the bulk of the forces I've tasked with the liberation of Orel move to contact with their German counterparts, 37th and 61st Armies strike an important success just northeast of Krastornoe:

[image]http://img850.imageshack.us/img850/7784/t30tulaorel.png[/image]


A few German divisions are now in a difficult position. I said I wanted a bulge, and one seems to be in the making :)

I give the green light to the operation I was talking about before north of Stalino

[image]http://img641.imageshack.us/img641/4970/t30northstalino.png[/image]


3rd Shock Army gets into the line and his first task is to crush the Gebirgsjäger division bracketing our left flank. I'm not sure what front will have the overall command here, my bet is Southern though. But south of Stalino I suffer a sharp reverse

[image]http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/3761/t3029adefeat.png[/image]


29th Army has been crushed while trying to widen my bridgehead over the Mius river. 11th PzDiv marched to the sound of the guns and crushed the attackers:

[image]http://img855.imageshack.us/img855/9122/t30mateevkurganbattle.png[/image]


Ouch!

Evaluating the last Six turns

Since Turn 24 Axis losses have been:

KIA: 31,567
POW: 24,228
WIA: 317,066
Arty: 2,798
AFV: 492

of which 10,176 have been due to attrition. Blizzard losses must be around 200,000. Soviet losses have been substantial:

KIA: 162,209
POW: 2,335
WIA: 158,535
Artillery: 2,922
AFV: 1,285

of which 19,996 have been due to attrition. Loss exchange ratio is of about 2 to 1 in favour of the Axis, after deducing those estimated 200,000 disabled due to blizzard. My AFV losses have been very high, basically because I've used the Tank Brigades to exploit any breakthroughs and to force the Germans to counterattack.

I've been causing very little permanent casualties, though the Red Army hasn't really been bled white during the offensive. Replacements have been of about 600,000 men, well above the butcher's bill, and RKKA OOB numbers have increased.

Perhaps I'm being a bit too pessimistic about the counteroffensive results. I just think I've done fair given the huge casualties I suffered during Summer and Autumn.



gingerbread -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (10/30/2011 5:27:04 PM)

My apologies for even suggesting frugality with information - as you hopefully realize, I had overlooked your spreadsheet. It's a treasure chest for number crunchers like me.

As to your results I suggest, for purposes of comparison, to count Axis WIA as ½KIA (with a 1% recovery rate it takes ~16 months for the pool to halve) and Soviet WIA as gone (0.5%).
With that rule of thumb, it's roughly 220k vs 320k, certainly not bad so far and more to come. I do not think it fair to deduct exposure losses since one of the effects of pushing the Axis out of forts is that these losses increase. Vulnerability is highest in December, but forts are nice to have in February as well which means there is some gains to be had by denying that protection. The March snow makes the decision of when/where to stop a rather delicate one.

Two more things: What SU's have you built in order to have almost 2000 85mm AA guns?

And they are not my gnats - they are doing a job for you!



BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (10/30/2011 5:44:52 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: gingerbread
My apologies for even suggesting frugality with information - as you hopefully realize, I had overlooked your spreadsheet. It's a treasure chest for number crunchers like me.


[:D] No need to apologize. At first I was a bit like - what? - but then I realized I hadn't updated the spreadsheet for a long time. So thanks for the heads up :)

quote:

ORIGINAL: gingerbread
As to your results I suggest, for purposes of comparison, to count Axis WIA as ½KIA (with a 1% recovery rate it takes ~16 months for the pool to halve) and Soviet WIA as gone (0.5%).
With that rule of thumb, it's roughly 220k vs 320k, certainly not bad so far and more to come. I do not think it fair to deduct exposure losses since one of the effects of pushing the Axis out of forts is that these losses increase. Vulnerability is highest in December, but forts are nice to have in February as well which means there is some gains to be had by denying that protection. The March snow makes the decision of when/where to stop a rather delicate one.


Very good points, indeed. I was measuring success by the direct impact on Axis casualty rate, but as you very well say, the indirect effects should be also put into the "formula". By the way, very good observation re: disabled.

About when to stop. You can see I've pretty much made up my mind about where to stop pretty much everywhere but in the south. I think I can get some good vantage point on future offensives towards Kharkov (if Q-Ball doesn't clobber me in March, certainly we'll see a Izyum-like offensive). I don't want Q-Ball to turtle up, even if that means taking chances to lose.

quote:

ORIGINAL: gingerbread
Two more things: What SU's have you built in order to have almost 2000 85mm AA guns?


Those numbers also surprised me until I took a look at the Commander's Report. Actually, those numbers aren't because I built SU's. Out of the 160 units in the OOB sporting that fine weapon, about 60 are SU's, the other 100 being Rifle Divisions. The 41b TOE divisions have an establishment of 10 AT guns, and I see that the engine tends to split that into 6 "light" 45mm ATG and 4 "heavy" 85mm ATG. Of the SU's, I've built 10 AT Regiments of type "A", which have these guns. The rest are Frontal and PVO AA battalions, which have been with me since June 1941.

quote:

ORIGINAL: gingerbread
And they are not my gnats - they are doing a job for you!


[:)] I found funny that you referred to them as "gnats", because it's indeed what they do look like ;)

Thank you for reading, and nice to see you enjoying the spreadsheet. You can guess how much of a pain is to extract those numbers from WitE interface.



Peltonx -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (10/30/2011 9:34:40 PM)

Nice info.



BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (11/1/2011 8:40:08 PM)

Turn 31 – 15 January 1942

Not much action by Q-Ball, other than falling back slightly in the north so the campaign there is done for all care by now, in front of Moscow and south of Voronezh. He's substantially reinforced Rzhev, and does not seem up to allow me to advance unchecked towards Orel.

Operational Situation Report

He's retreating to the Valdai Hills – excellent defensive terrain – and I'm more than happy of not having to evict him. That allows me to concentrate my scarce resources elsewhere. His lines around Rzhev are more solid than it seems

[image]http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/188/t31rzhevsitrep.png[/image]


He's secured the flanks of Rzhev with some stout German infantry and SS Totenkopf. It will be hard to generate good enough odds for an assault to be successful. A bit to the southeast, he didn't like the looks of the situation and has pulled back towards Kaluga and reinforced the flank:

[image]http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/3039/t31kalugasitrep.png[/image]


His position here is very strong, and the fight ahead promises to be tough. Even with his the poor recon – much better than in January but still quite poor – it doesn't seems to me that Q-Ball has really improved position around Orel

[image]http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/9654/t31orelsitrep.png[/image]


He's just limited to pull back the divisions menaced on my left flank. Those are really weak, and I plan to hit them hard this turn. He has also retreated behind the Oskol, which basically means the end of offensive operations here

[image]http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/1512/t31southvoronezh.png[/image]


I really want to fortify that for the upcoming Spring battles. Interestingly, he's inviting me to advance towards Kharkov

[image]http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/8328/t31kharkovsitrep.png[/image]


by the looks of the situation – note the Fortified Regions here – seems he's more than happy that I have a bulge here. Probably he's planning to do something mischievous in March. In any case, 3rd Shock Army will stay covering the flank of the forces advancing towards Kharkov. To the south, 4th Shock Army is almost assembled and will move immediately towards its attack position

[image]http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/4888/t31stalinositrep.png[/image]


as shown by the arrow. Getting as far as Izyum seems feasible, though it's a bit risky.

Logistics and Organization

Armaments production keeps raising – 90,000 points this turn – and 150,000 men have joined the ranks of the RKKA. Strength level look good as in “even”, and stopping offensive operations in the two sectors I discuss above will greatly help to keep this positive trend.

Operations

The only operation worth bothering with an screenshot is the action in the Tura – Orel and Yelets – Orel axis

[image]http://img692.imageshack.us/img692/7396/t31orelops.png[/image]


1st Shock is losing its edge after 6 weeks of non-stop campaigning which has taken its troops from east of Tula to the vicinity of Orel, which lays just three hexes to the west. Note that I'm only having some effect in those areas where Q-Ball decided not to retreat. In the rest, I've got dizzy after shuffling around so many counters, inserting 3rd and 4th Shock Armies in their positions and trying to waste the least MP's. Not easy, with the very limited mobility and the high density in some sectors of the front.

This turn I manage to generate again 15 attacks, of which yet again 11 are successful. Losses aren't too bad this turn for me: just 30,000 for 7,000 Axis casualties. Interestingly enough, out of those 30,000, 23,000 have been KIA. The proportion of KIA for the Axis is significantly different: just 2,600 out of 7,000.



BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (11/4/2011 9:35:35 AM)

Turn 32 – 22 January 1942

This turn is half an anti-climax. Q-Ball has abandoned Rzhev, and he's in full retreat towards Orel. However, he stands fast in front of Stalino, and seems that we'll have some serious battles there. I can't really complain, even with the surprising increase in replacements – I got 150,000 again this turn – I can't really afford to launch attacks all over the place, because of the hefty losses Soviet units tend to suffer.

Operational Situation Report

Operations here are basically finished

[image]http://img508.imageshack.us/img508/5628/t32rzhevsitrep.png[/image]


I'll limit myself to establish contact and start digging. German lines have been stretched as I wanted and there's no realistic expectation of achieving anything really significant. The German position around Kaluga is still strong

[image]http://img202.imageshack.us/img202/2879/t32kalugasitrep.png[/image]


I'll try to liberate the city, but if I am not successful by the start of February, I'll just desist. 2nd Shock Army health isn't as flashy as I'd like it to be, and the other armies here aren't just up to the task. The road to Orel is almost open

[image]http://img197.imageshack.us/img197/3221/t32orelyelets.png[/image]


Note how Q-Ball is grouping his beleaguered units into stacks of three units. This is a clear signal that these units are really ragged. I've marked on the map what will be my new – and final – axis of advance. I'm not going to be distracted by the apparently clear path to Kursk. The real goal has been and still is Orel. I'm doubting even if pursue the German forces east of Zolotukhino. If this double pincer move is successful this turn, it's likely than Q-Ball will decide to withdraw.

To the east you can see two Armies I've already decided to hold as strategic reserves. I've got actually 7 Armies in the STAVKA reserve. Four of them are earmarked for replacing the Shock Armies, which will be withdrawn as soon as the ongoing offensives are finished.

As I said, this turn there will be heavy battle around Stalino

[image]http://img833.imageshack.us/img833/3172/t32stalinositrep.png[/image]


shown on the map are the axis of advance. Note how he's setup two stout German formations (a Gebirgsjäger and a Panzer Division) to secure that flank. I wanted to hit something softer, but I think I'll have to make do, even if this means very heavy losses. I don't have much time left to spend flanking his strongpoints.

Operations

It's been a bloody turn. I would say I've been successful achieving two thirds of the goals I wanted to achieve this turn. Not bad, but I'd certainly have preferred to pay a cheaper cost. Especially around Kaluga, where I should have perhaps not attacked at all. But let's review the bright spots.

Operations have been mostly successful around Orel

[image]http://img851.imageshack.us/img851/8563/t23orelops.png[/image]


Q-Ball lines has been overcome in two places north of Orel and his forces there are wavering after 1st Shock supported by Western Front's 3rd and 4th Army have delivered powerful blows. Four German infantry divisions are in a difficult position. South of Orel, 49th and 31st Bryansk Front Armies have pushed back German forces with little losses (this has been surprising). Both flanks are under heavy pressure. I think it's likely that Q-Ball withdraws next turn.

To the south, the honest citizens of Stalino were woken up by the massive conflagration to the east and north of the city

[image]http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/319/t32stalinoops.png[/image]


North of the city 16th Army – I hope this one becomes 1st Guards Army soon – defeats the Gebirgsjäger Division which will allow me to press with more ease Q-Ball's flank. A bit to the east, 3rd Shock and 38th Army suffer a bloody repulse, after the marked PzDiv comes to the rescue of the German division in the corner of the line. To the east of the city I've achieved something more spectacular. 4th Shock Army – supported by units of 56th Army – has all but blown apart the German line. Too bad the attack on the Romanians on the left flank went awry. I've been close to achieve a breakthrough. A bit to the south, I recover my bridgehead over the river Mius, and three Axis divisions are flanked. Not too shabby.

I grimace, though, when reviewing this turn butcher's bill. The RKKA has suffered 31,000 casualties and lost 143 AFV's, while the Axis has suffered 13,000 casualties and lost 27 AFV's. This after launching 16 attacks, 5 of them ending in very high losses (about 3000+ counting temporary and permanent losses, while the Axis losses in these battles were in the hundreds or less). Again a majority of Soviet casualties are KIA: 28,000 out of 31,000. This proportion between wounded and killed seems to me to be out of whack.



asdicus -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (11/4/2011 11:51:51 PM)

Still avidly following your super aar. Please keep it up looking forward to 1942.

I find the ratio of killed:wounded in your casualty lists over the blizzard offensive very disturbing. you are losing around 90% dead to 10% wounded. That seems totally unrealistic. I am not an expert on casualty figures in ww2 but around 1:3 or 1:4 seems a common ratio ie 1 dead to 3 or 4 wounded. Of course some of the wounded will never return to combat but even so 90% dead seems mad unless your men are performing banzai charges every turn.

Have you raised this issue with the developers ? Is this a new problem with recent patches or have russian losses always been like this ?



Joel Billings -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (11/5/2011 3:21:53 AM)

There are many more wounded than those that show up in the disabled column. Disabled are very long term or permanent wounded, while elements that get damaged are suffering lots of wounded (many returned to transit pool and then active within a few weeks), others that never go back to the pool but repair in the unit.



BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (11/5/2011 1:33:12 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Joel Billings
There are many more wounded than those that show up in the disabled column. Disabled are very long term or permanent wounded, while elements that get damaged are suffering lots of wounded (many returned to transit pool and then active within a few weeks), others that never go back to the pool but repair in the unit.


Thanks for the heads up about this point Joel. I am struggling to keep track of what enters and leaves the pools all the time, as I think it's very important in order to assess whether operations returns compensate the price being paid on the battlefield. This was made significantly easier when you introduced the switches to check the Active/Transit Pools on the Production screen.

But are really the Damaged elements in the Transit pool explaining away these proportions?

However, regardless of how unreliable can be statistics whose data is taken from the Losses report, there's an apparent difference between the Axis and Soviet casualty distribution. I mean, one would expect both the Axis and the Soviet to show a similar distribution say 1 KIA for each 3 Disabled (as you say, long-term wounded), but multiplied by some factor for the Soviets. This is not really happening in this game for the Soviet side. The Axis proportions of combat casualties seems to be something like 1:3, while for the Soviets is more like 3:1 or 4:1, precisely the inverse. That's a startling coincidence.

Either too many Soviet losses due to combat are deemed "short term" and the Soviet number of disabled is lower than it should be, or too many men in Damaged and Destroyed elements are deemed as KIA.



BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (11/5/2011 1:41:04 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: asdicus
Still avidly following your super aar. Please keep it up looking forward to 1942.


It's hard, I'm being swamped by work (today I'm at the office working, or rather, trying) [:)]

quote:

ORIGINAL: asdicus
I find the ratio of killed:wounded in your casualty lists over the blizzard offensive very disturbing. you are losing around 90% dead to 10% wounded. That seems totally unrealistic. I am not an expert on casualty figures in ww2 but around 1:3 or 1:4 seems a common ratio ie 1 dead to 3 or 4 wounded. Of course some of the wounded will never return to combat but even so 90% dead seems mad unless your men are performing banzai charges every turn.


They don't do the banzai thing, they do the "Hurrah!" thing [:)]

My thoughts precisely. In this game two weird things have cropped up. Both related with unreliable numbers being reported in the Losses screen. First, there were the Air to Air Axis casualties which were just out of whack. I contacted Helpless about that, but he couldn't see any reason to that. I guess the numbers have been somehow "corrupted" by the constant application of patches. Second, we have this with the KIA / Disabled ratio. Are those KIA's really KIA's? Perhaps the losses report is just fooling me, as it did with the Air to Air Axis air losses. Or perhaps something is going on.

quote:

ORIGINAL: asdicus
Have you raised this issue with the developers ? Is this a new problem with recent patches or have russian losses always been like this ?


No, certainly losses haven't been like this always. Certainly not on 1.04. I'm now lamenting about not having collected this data on previous games: that, and similar efforts, would provide us with a benchmark dataset useful for "regression" testing. Perhaps somebody still playing 1.04 can tell us what are the ratios he's getting.



BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (11/5/2011 1:43:19 PM)


In any case, I wonder if this trend will continue into the Spring and Summer. It would be interesting to see it changing as weather and supply conditions improve.



BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (11/5/2011 6:24:56 PM)

Turn 33 – 29 January 1942

Last turn of January, time to make some tough decisions regarding February operations.

Operational Situation Report

As I predicted, Q-Ball withdraws towards Orel, and delivering a parting gift to my vanguard

[image]http://img443.imageshack.us/img443/640/t33orelsitrep.png[/image]


I've pretty much made my mind about keep attacking in this sector well into February. I just don't want to leave this very successful operation without achieving its final goal. Q-Ball abandons his positions east of Stalino, falling back into a pretty solid position

[image]http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/1328/t33stalinositrep.png[/image]


after extricating his bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Mius river. In the north I'm totally blocked: that operation has just failed. There's no point in insisting.

Logistics & Organization

The flow of armaments keeps being high, so there's a substantial stream of replacements arriving to my Rifle formations. The RKKA OOB contains 534 Rifle formations, of which only about 10% are below 50% TOE. That's very good, I hadn't been able to keep my forces so in shape since Turn 21. In the interim, the RKKA has also considerably growth in size: 170 new (rebuilt) formations have been added. Armored forces strength levels are also mostly OK. Out of 122 tank brigades and battalions, slighly over 20% are below 50% TOE. Artillery strength levels though are quite bad. I expect the situation to improve in the following months, unless Q-Ball inflicts major losses during March.

Operations

Not much going on. The operations around Stalino are cancelled: there's no point in struggling any more there. For now, of course :) My troops have scored a very nice victory at Kaluga, conquering the city after a bloody assault

[image]http://img402.imageshack.us/img402/5461/t33kalugaliberated.png[/image]


The implication of the engineers has been key to reduce fortifications and achieve this victory. Hurrah!

On the Orel sector I get a nice tactical success north of the city – now I have two hexsides – which is somewhat nullified by the failure to the southeast of Orel

[image]http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/7551/t33orelops.png[/image]


there 49th Army has suffered substantial losses

[image]http://img689.imageshack.us/img689/3788/t33zmievkadefeat.png[/image]


I had struggle to get some decent odds here, as MP's are very limited due to poor supply lines. The attacking Rifle divisions were quite good, though. So some leader here fumbled with his rolls.

57th and 16th Armies retreat to the east as I cancel the operation towards Kupyansk

[image]http://img831.imageshack.us/img831/4291/t33stalinoops.png[/image]


and the 4th Shock Army withdraws as well, since, after considering all factors involved, I didn't see much point to bleed that army white attacking the strong German positions. I deploy along the Mius and will be waiting for further events.

So it's done: the show is over pretty much everywhere but in the Orel region. This turn I just got started 6 attacks, 2 of them resulting in sharp defeats. The Axis has suffered 3,000 casualties while my forces have got quite a bloody nose: about 10,000 casualties, 9,000 KIA and 1,000 disabled...

PS: The data spreadsheet is being kept up to date, for those interested.



M60A3TTS -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (11/6/2011 3:20:33 PM)

Although your offensive may not be completely over, I'm curious as to what you think you accomplished in terms of meeting your objectives. What did you gain the most out of and anything you really wanted to accomplish but weren't able to. How does that help going into the Axis 42 Offensive period?

I'm thinking now that the shock armies are really too little too late in terms of their usefulness in the winter offensive. They have potential to increase morale longer term but by the time the four are actually employed and achieving results, the Axis player is already recovering from winter effects.



BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (11/6/2011 4:30:31 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS
Although your offensive may not be completely over, I'm curious as to what you think you accomplished in terms of meeting your objectives. What did you gain the most out of and anything you really wanted to accomplish but weren't able to. How does that help going into the Axis 42 Offensive period?


Well, on Turn 23 I delineated the main goals along the following five major strategic axes

Torzhok - Rzhev
Tula - Orel & Tula - Kaluga
Rossoh - Valyuki
Voroshilovgrad - Kramatorskaya
Rostov - Stalino

The first and the second operations met all of their goals, Kaluga already is back in my hands and we're at the doors of Orel. Where I have failed is in the South. I have denied Q-Ball the Mius line and basically pushed him back far enough as to menace (figuratively speaking) Kharkov from the East and Stalino from the North. Getting a wedge north of Stalino and east of Kharkov is an excellent vantage point and something the Germans I think can't ignore. I didn't get the kind of bulge I was pursuing: one that made predictable Axis operations during 1942.

From Day 1 of blizzard my goals were of an operational nature: secure key river lines and railroad junctions and stretch the German line to make Q-Ball difficult to concentrate his infantry without having to rely to the Axis allies to cover the line. I'm not sure whether I've been 100% successful there.

quote:

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS
I'm thinking now that the shock armies are really too little too late in terms of their usefulness in the winter offensive. They have potential to increase morale longer term but by the time the four are actually employed and achieving results, the Axis player is already recovering from winter effects.


3rd and 4th is debatable, about 1st and 2nd I don't agree. 4th Shock came late but I've used to great effect to rip a hole in the German line east of Stalino. I'm sure Q-Ball wasn't amused by that and I forced him to commit troops he was most probably nurturing for March. I disagre about the 1st and 2nd: I had assembled its elements long before they became available, building Arty, Sappers and Tk Bns SU's and handpicking the very best divisions on the RKKA OOB. I think I have been able to use them effectively quickly and with substantial success.



M60A3TTS -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (11/6/2011 5:23:02 PM)

I didn't make my point clearly on the shock armies, so let me try again. I am talking about the value of a shock army vs any other regular soviet army at this point in time. I'm not questioning the results you achieved with the two shock armies.

The shock army value is to add +5 to national morale which on turn 25 is 43. So that gives you 43+5=48. And that is still below what I call the universal morale level of 50 which Soviet units will get to anyways. If you put your best units in that shock army, I'm guessing they may already be at or above that morale level so in effect that type of army gains you nothing. Later it will be a different story as Soviet national morale increases- thenthe bonus has meaning.



BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (11/6/2011 5:39:59 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS

I didn't make my point clearly on the shock armies, so let me try again. I am talking about the value of a shock army vs any other regular soviet army at this point in time. I'm not questioning the results you achieved with the two shock armies.


Ok :)

quote:

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS
The shock army value is to add +5 to national morale which on turn 25 is 43. So that gives you 43+5=48. And that is still below what I call the universal morale level of 50 which Soviet units will get to anyways. If you put your best units in that shock army, I'm guessing they may already be at or above that morale level so in effect that type of army gains you nothing. Later it will be a different story as Soviet national morale increases- thenthe bonus has meaning.


Hmmm, I don't see why Soviet units get to morale 50 "anyways". Either they had a higher morale than NM because they haven't lost due to combat (which is rare) or they're Guards. I'm missing something perhaps?

In that case, yes, indeed, it's a marginal advantage. Other than to provide a "cushion" for your units, so their morale level doesn't get too low due to combat.

Next turn I'll make a histogram showing Morale level distributions for Soviet Rifle formations. I need to check the numbers, but the morale distribution looks like a bell curve, with the average on the 36 - 42, and the tails being in the low 20's or mid 50's.



M60A3TTS -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (11/6/2011 10:22:46 PM)

These are the rules under 1.0.5 and refer to the section 9.1.1 in the manual. If you have units at least 10 hexes from the enemy, their morale can go to 50.

19) Changes to Morale Rules

a. The following units receive bonuses to their National Morale: All Cavalry, Mountain Airborne and Air Landing units, and Axis Allied motorized units +5, German Motorized Units +10, Soviet Motorized Units (from Sept 1942-August 1943) +5, Soviet Motorized Units (Sept 1943-end of war) +10.
b. Soviet National Morale has been changed to 50 in June 1941. One point is subtracted each month after this in 1941 (so it is 44 in Dec 41). In 1942 it is set to 40, with one point being added each month starting in September 1942 (so 44 in Dec 42). This continues in 1943 and 1944 until the Soviet National Morale reaches its maximum of 60 in April 1944.
c. Build morale now equals national morale in all cases (there is no separate build morale table anymore.
d. Changed rule so that the morale gain from refit when under 50 morale is only gained when the unit in refit is at least 10 hexes from a supplied enemy unit (similar to the current gain if less than morale 50 and 10 or more hexes from enemy unit).

This is in the manual, which IMO is somewhat murky:
The actual unit morale can be above or below the national morale, but unit morale will tend to gravitate towards the national morale.

My interpretation is it can be the NM level or 50, whichever is higher based on the rules outlined in section 9.1.1. As the Soviet player you have to manage your units to either get morale bumps through combat or keep some units 10 away from the enemy. In some cases, the latter may simply happen by default. And I'd also maintain as a result if you stick these in a shock army, you get no better results as if you stuck them in a plain vanilla army, at least through late '42 when Soviet National Morale starts to rise.



BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (11/7/2011 9:59:45 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS

These are the rules under 1.0.5 and refer to the section 9.1.1 in the manual. If you have units at least 10 hexes from the enemy, their morale can go to 50.

19) Changes to Morale Rules

a. The following units receive bonuses to their National Morale: All Cavalry, Mountain Airborne and Air Landing units, and Axis Allied motorized units +5, German Motorized Units +10, Soviet Motorized Units (from Sept 1942-August 1943) +5, Soviet Motorized Units (Sept 1943-end of war) +10.
b. Soviet National Morale has been changed to 50 in June 1941. One point is subtracted each month after this in 1941 (so it is 44 in Dec 41). In 1942 it is set to 40, with one point being added each month starting in September 1942 (so 44 in Dec 42). This continues in 1943 and 1944 until the Soviet National Morale reaches its maximum of 60 in April 1944.
c. Build morale now equals national morale in all cases (there is no separate build morale table anymore.
d. Changed rule so that the morale gain from refit when under 50 morale is only gained when the unit in refit is at least 10 hexes from a supplied enemy unit (similar to the current gain if less than morale 50 and 10 or more hexes from enemy unit).

This is in the manual, which IMO is somewhat murky:
The actual unit morale can be above or below the national morale, but unit morale will tend to gravitate towards the national morale.

My interpretation is it can be the NM level or 50, whichever is higher based on the rules outlined in section 9.1.1. As the Soviet player you have to manage your units to either get morale bumps through combat or keep some units 10 away from the enemy. In some cases, the latter may simply happen by default. And I'd also maintain as a result if you stick these in a shock army, you get no better results as if you stuck them in a plain vanilla army, at least through late '42 when Soviet National Morale starts to rise.


I've been looking closely at those rules, and my interpretation differs slightly from yours. From my point of view, you can have non-motorized, non-cavalry units above NM only in the following circumstances:


  • It has Guards status
  • It is under command of a Shock Army
  • It started with Morale above NM and it hasn't lost it in combat or because of supply penalties
  • It has won enough combats in a row and gone through required checks to increase morale


The 10-hex rule distance means, I think, that if you're under 50 you'll increase faster but never above the "glass ceiling" of NM. The statement

quote:


The actual unit morale can be above or below the national morale, but unit morale will tend to gravitate towards the national morale.


is indeed murky, but it's consistent with the observations above. If the unit morale is below NM, it will tend to increase towards it. If it's above NM, it might go down because of losing combat and low supply. Perhaps Joel can clarify this.

Hence my worries about 1942: if during March Q-Ball goes berserk and starts attacking my units with overwhelming odds, the little quality won during Winter offensives or conserved by having nurtured units will melt away. Also the ping-pong weather conditions of May and early June are very problematic. He can strike with full strength during clear, and retreat to positions that become natural fortifications the following Mud turn.

I'm really worried about this, guys.

On the topic of Shock Armies. As far as I understand it - perhaps wrongly - the +5 bonus is applied to units current morale level. So if you happen to have a non-Guard 55 morale unit it'll get boosted to 60. This will mean as well that ground elements will get quite experienced and increase the unit combat power significantly.

I can see people using Shock Armies for training rotating membership to get the Morale bump. As long as they don't get into harms way, they'll keep the Morale and train up to almost German standards their ground elements. But I think this is gaming the rules, and is certainly something I won't do.

Thank you for the discussion M60 [:)] And if someone finds that I'm wrong, please do tell me [:)]



M60A3TTS -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (11/7/2011 11:22:55 AM)

This is why I think what I think. I think. [:D]

Rule 9.2.4

Soviet units that are directly attached to Shock Army headquarters units will receive a five point
bonus to their national morale. This morale bonus exists only as long as the unit is directly
attached to a Shock Army HQ unit.



BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (11/7/2011 11:30:58 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS

This is why I think what I think. I think. [:D]

Rule 9.2.4

Soviet units that are directly attached to Shock Army headquarters units will receive a five point
bonus to their national morale. This morale bonus exists only as long as the unit is directly
attached to a Shock Army HQ unit.


Nice one [:)] So no loophole for people to game Shock Armies, and it's not awarded over the current value sported by units, but on the global national morale. So that means an upper bound of 45 to Morale for units in a Shock Army (unless they already had a higher morale than that) until September 1942.

Let's try to wrap up the discussion so far, shall we? [:)]

As to Shock Armies being of "critical" importance for success because of being "too little, too late", yes, you're right. The actual important factor for success is the earmarking and nurturing of good units. The only difference of having those units under a regular Combined Arms Army or a Shock Army is that, even if they lose a lot, they will still be slightly better than "average". Which is not a lot, indeed.





gingerbread -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (11/7/2011 1:09:55 PM)

Let me just add my .02: Shock Armies do have an extra 100 Support Squads and it's likely that these have more impact than the +5 NM.

Are you planning to harvest the Guards candidates - those that clear the conditions but have not made their die roll yet?



BletchleyGeek -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (11/7/2011 1:14:53 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: gingerbread
Let me just add my .02: Shock Armies do have an extra 100 Support Squads and it's likely that these have more impact than the +5 NM.


Very good point, by the way. Too bad that Support Squad production can't be influenced in the same way as other Ground elements. Or it can? I've noticed - if you check the data in the spreadsheet you'll also be able to see it - that Support Squad tends to be zero for a few turns in a row and then suddenly "spikes". Perhaps reducing TOE's for some HQ's will mean than other HQ's - Shock Armies for instance - get replenished more quickly. Let's see if this turn I can try this.

quote:

ORIGINAL: gingerbread
Are you planning to harvest the Guards candidates - those that clear the conditions but have not made their die roll yet?



No, not really. I think it's more important to "harvest" the units I might have with Morale higher than NM. This and good victory/defeat ratios tend to go hand by hand.



gingerbread -> RE: Clash of Steel: 1941-1945: Q-Ball vs Bletchley_Geek (11/7/2011 2:13:46 PM)

I'm afraid I'll have to pass on the task to divine the workings of Support Squad production. Fresh out of lizzard's gut since I used a lot on the ARM multiplier subject. [;)]



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