RE: Rasputitsa Arrives (Full Version)

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heliodorus04 -> RE: Rasputitsa Arrives (11/26/2011 6:49:42 PM)

Finally, back to the Izium pocket

[image]local://upfiles/30405/CAF753ED9361411D865B93B414837667.jpg[/image]



heliodorus04 -> RE: Rasputitsa Arrives (11/26/2011 6:50:09 PM)

Railheads are in good position, with an FBD in Kharkov, and the other you can see in the bottom center of the map. I don’t think I’ll have supply any worse next turn than this, so that gives me more time to reduce. I was not able to cross the Donets from the west side/Kharkov side, and so had to thin my defense to cover the rail net around Kharkov (those are automateds, except the one you can’t see in Kharkov).

Another game where Kharkov fighting is fierce… What is it about that town? I have this great book called “Platz Der Liebstandarte” with really nice photos from SS War Correspondents involved in the campaign in Feb/Mar 43.

Things are a bit sketchy still south of D-town, but I have enough counters that I can get throw around a bit, and 3 German divisions to act as fire brigades. It’s the crimea that I’m worried about, because supply will take a long time to reach there, and suddenly that’s a cause for concern… No pictures. You can imagine… This could be crisis territory in blizzard, due to supply, and I’m wondering if I shouldn’t devote one of the two AGS FBDs to starting to burn a rail line from D-town to the southwest and the Crimea. Sounds like a very good idea given how things are going in the two places…



heliodorus04 -> Turn 19 (11/27/2011 7:23:19 PM)

Turn 19 has arrived, so here are the stats starting my review of Turn 18 (Mud everywhere):


[image]local://upfiles/30405/5A32E61239434038B1E014EFD6DA25F3.jpg[/image]



heliodorus04 -> RE: Turn 19 (11/27/2011 7:27:09 PM)

My only question for readers is what I do with the forts I'm building. I've heard people say to turn their refit off the turn after they're built, which I've been doing. That turn typically brings them to 85% TOE, and I'm leaving it there. Fort prep is new to me, so if anyone can explain to me the tradeoffs.

I figure my armaments are low like this because of the forts and the fact that losses have finally caught up. My plan is to lower TOEs for all units starting in the snow. My understanding is that it's better to not refill the units taking casualties through the blizzard (at lest all of December, longer if you can make it).

What should I put airbases at? What's the best things to do with SUs? Back at OKH in a city?

And am I allowed to be somewhat comforted by the casualties I've caused the Soviet over the period being high enough that his blizzard will be weakened?



heliodorus04 -> RE: Turn 19 (11/27/2011 7:28:07 PM)

Nothing to report in the Leningrad area. For some reason I went a bit mad and broke everything into regiments to dig in every hex. Not really productive; I think I was obsessing while looking at the map. What should I do with the eastern Finnish force? Withdraw?



[image]local://upfiles/30405/067C0B38B38649D190ED2C8AA95FDC1D.jpg[/image]



heliodorus04 -> RE: Turn 19 (11/27/2011 7:29:13 PM)

Here’s a macro-view of Vyshny Volichek and surroundings


[image]local://upfiles/30405/01E9DE2465F44E6CBB6529A66FA9C449.jpg[/image]



heliodorus04 -> RE: Turn 19 (11/27/2011 7:30:00 PM)

Since I’ve only gotten to mud in 2 games prior to this, now I’m in my inexperience zone (and even then it was 1.04). Not sure if I over-spent AP on forts up here, but I want to hold firm at the Valdai, and I intend to try to set up to hold Vyshny to Kalinin. I’m considering a snow offensive with a few mobile elements toward the highlighted rail line. If I can cut that central line, I can reduce the pressure.

But more importantly than that, I’m having to ask myself whether I have too many units committed up here for what is necessary. I’ll probably pull a couple decent-morale divisions off the line to become a strategic reserve.
Still bluffing with Finland…



heliodorus04 -> RE: Turn 19 (11/27/2011 7:31:06 PM)

The Kalinin-Moscow Axis


[image]local://upfiles/30405/076519B74C044BBA971D0800E13D8E93.jpg[/image]



heliodorus04 -> RE: Turn 19 (11/27/2011 7:32:31 PM)

Of note are the forts. These will be my fallback positions for the first turn of blizzard. I lost a fort I just put down where that encircled division retreated. Oh well.

Supply is still strained here, but CF is holding the north of Moscow with weak cav divisions and airborne brigades. I make it a point to try to hit cav whenever I can. When alone, they are almost always an easy win (and TOE changes around this time make some of the good cav weaker and smaller). So I attacked, shattering an airborne brigade, and seeing a wide enough opening that I can put pressure on immediately. CF should have to divert units from the central area north. I can’t do much of anything up there, but it’s not out of the question that the FBD heading east toward Moscow (the southern one circled on the map above) could divert itself north to make it better supplied. I have a rail line that can reach there without going through enemy ZOC.



heliodorus04 -> RE: Turn 19 (11/27/2011 7:33:24 PM)

The Tula-Orel-Kursk frontier.


[image]local://upfiles/30405/02B38FEB9769473F82F9705BF092B59F.jpg[/image]



heliodorus04 -> RE: Turn 19 (11/27/2011 7:34:18 PM)

This is a dangerous zone for me, particularly at Kursk where 6.Army is strained to hold the distance south of Kursk, and 4.Army is strained north of Kursk. Good morale Italians can slow an advance for a turn long enough to flex. The defense in the center is designed to channel him away from good supply. I try to leave an obvious faster-movement path, but the design is aimed at over-extending. Not sure it works against a human; I’ve only defended as Soviet really. It worked when I played Soviet, maybe it can work again here.

Obviously, when the snow winds down, I will be withdrawing from the Ryazan salient. I’m not sure if anything can be accomplished by a northward drive for my units north of the Oka. I’m starting to think, given the limits of a snow offensive, and what I would need to accomplish to be able to hold that position in the Blizzard, I think even a westward advance aimed at shortening the distance along the south-side of Moscow might be counter-productive.

As an alternate plan, I’m thinking about withdrawing from the north-bank of the Oka in a more stealthy fashion while the mud is ongoing.



heliodorus04 -> RE: Turn 19 (11/27/2011 7:34:39 PM)

Here is what I’m thinking:


[image]local://upfiles/30405/21B97FCCB6AD422C9DD29A09A87B5CFF.jpg[/image]



heliodorus04 -> RE: Turn 19 (11/27/2011 7:34:57 PM)

I would need to move the mobile units around over the next 2 mud turns to accomplish this. Easy enough for one of the panzer groups, but getting something to Orel is a bit harder. I have Das Reich and a shell panzer division attached to OKH and as a strategic reserve. They’re going to have to get allocated to Orel, I think.

I think this is a more productive use of my very limited offensive power for 3 turns of Snow than trying to fight through the fort belt at Moscow. Even 10 counters, especially if Rifle divisions, removed from the map now makes my 1942 better. So that’s where I’m headed with my snow offensive.



heliodorus04 -> RE: Turn 19 (11/27/2011 7:35:36 PM)

Now the Kursk-Kharkov section of line.


[image]local://upfiles/30405/7F4DCAF0AB2740DE86AC2DEF41EEB734.jpg[/image]



heliodorus04 -> RE: Turn 19 (11/27/2011 7:35:56 PM)

What is obvious from looking at the rail line is that any attack will lead through Kursk, because his rail supply goes right to its door.

On the other hand, if my planned Tula snow offensive goes well, he’s going to have to reconsider launching a westward/southwestward attack while his northern flank is collapsing. Further, it wouldn’t take a lot of force to hit that rail junction between Kursk and Voronezh, and thus buy a lot of supply distance between his railhead and me. I think that junction is a “if I can take it, I’ll try.”

This whole center is dangerous, but it gets better as supply gets closer, and at a minimum, I can close almost all these rail networks by the start of Blizzard, if not snow.



heliodorus04 -> RE: Turn 19 (11/27/2011 7:38:13 PM)

Now the Izyum Pocket


[image]local://upfiles/30405/D683D734A67C43D2A27CC8E5B284C4CC.jpg[/image]



heliodorus04 -> RE: Turn 19 (11/27/2011 7:39:23 PM)

Again, I’m continually improving my supply position to the eastern-side of the pocket. This pocket is, I believe, closed.

It will probably require a corps of each army involved over the next two turns. The goal will be to extract the armor in time that they can switch to offense in snow, so that has to start next turn. 6.Army then flexes northward, 11.Army holds a line opposite the Donbas cities, and 17.Army/11.Army drive south being lead by 1.Panzer Group.

Defensively, I’m hoping to hold firm from Kharkov southward to the Dnepr loop, over the blizzard. I think having bagged as many good divisions as I have helps me here. I’m eager to see how my supply situation is next turn, what the infantry can accomplish in terms of pocket clearing, and where my panzers can be in prep for the snow offensive.



heliodorus04 -> RE: Turn 19 (11/27/2011 7:39:49 PM)

But I’m examining each of our winter offensive/counter-offensive possibilities.

[image]local://upfiles/30405/F89C5DD17CC04A199903933355AFB87D.jpg[/image]



heliodorus04 -> RE: Turn 19 (11/27/2011 7:40:11 PM)

You can see he has a rail network that supports a large-scale offensive on the Dnepr loop. I really see this blue-lined offensive as mandatory for my snow turns.

Does anyone know off-hand if I could airdrop the airborne division (visible on this map, circled in yellow) to cut that rail line? It withdraws in 9 turns – this would be an interesting test for it, and if it shattered, it would only eat some replacements and leave. I’d have to take that port before I could be sure of isolation. But it’s a reasonably achievable goal, and probably a necessary one.

I think the one thing I have going for me is that the units opposing me are always weaker every turn, and now he’s holding sections of line with armor and infantry brigades. These, plus the weakened cav divisions, are enabling me to keep rolling at times. I will almost always take a shot at these for the easy win, which benefits Morale and might keep an additional hex German-friendly when otherwise I wouldn’t want to enter it. Like I did at Izyum over the last 3 turns. One respectable rifle division there (if he has any, and I believe he does) would have required probably another unit for me to attack. Not worth it, usually.

That’s where the turn ends. 2 more mud turns. I think I’ve done well with what I have so far.



Peltonx -> RE: Turn 19 (11/27/2011 8:15:53 PM)

no it cant be dropped.

Also I would not attack a single unit you have in that pocket, because if you wait unit November they dont come back for free.

Let them rot until snow.



heliodorus04 -> RE: Turn 19 (11/27/2011 9:14:59 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton

no it cant be dropped.

Also I would not attack a single unit you have in that pocket, because if you wait unit November they dont come back for free.

Let them rot until snow.

Oh, I thought it stopped on Turn 18. Damn. Well, I'm not going to game the system that way, plus, they're hurting my rail advancement and my supply line by being where they are.



Peltonx -> RE: Turn 19 (11/27/2011 9:16:50 PM)

I did not see in the AAR if you took Moscow or not.




Balou -> RE: Turn 19 (11/27/2011 10:00:56 PM)

helio,
picture below is from your AAR, turn 18 I suppose. What do the counters tell? (whithin white circle ?)

[image]local://upfiles/32354/3F8A70F2C72042C8A32532FFA87D23A0.jpg[/image]



Peltonx -> RE: Turn 19 (11/27/2011 10:22:18 PM)

Lol so close.

U still have 3 turns of snow.

I am not 100% sure but attacking a hex atleast causes the population to move win or lose. So you can damage the manpower even if you dont take a city, which is historical in my book.



freeboy -> RE: Turn 19 (11/27/2011 10:54:16 PM)

not sure if the "manpower" count drops with the "population moves too X' message,
ned to kick that one to the dev's



heliodorus04 -> RE: Turn 19 (11/28/2011 12:23:27 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Balou

helio,
picture below is from your AAR, turn 18 I suppose. What do the counters tell? (whithin white circle ?)

[image]local://upfiles/32354/3F8A70F2C72042C8A32532FFA87D23A0.jpg[/image]

No idea. I think that's a circle that was added by mistake.

Pelton, I have not attacked Moscow yet. It's mud.



Balou -> RE: Turn 19 (11/28/2011 3:29:56 AM)

Actually I added the circle. At your magnification the counters didn't gave any info. And I was just asking for a higher magnification to better see whats going on near Moscow itself.



heliodorus04 -> RE: Turn 19 (11/28/2011 3:36:10 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Balou

Actually I added the circle. At your magnification the counters didn't gave any info. And I was just asking for a higher magnification to better see whats going on near Moscow itself.

W.Moscow is 2-Rifle.Div& 1 fort, 67 CV Defense
NW.Moscow is 2-Rifle.Div& 1 fort, 63 CV Defense
Mytishi ("NE Moscow") is 3 rifle div, 18 defense

The units on the southern side I do not have a value for, because I've not gone adjacent.

There's some weird developments in his Moscow defense (or my detection of it) that I'll have to go over for turn 20. I'm just messing around with the administrative side of the turn.



Peltonx -> RE: Turn 19 (11/28/2011 3:58:30 AM)

As long as your assault units have allot of poineers they can take any hex. No hex on map is safe from and attack. level 3 fort vs poineers = 0 So the cv numbers would drop allot. Put Model in charge of army and next best commanders in charge of corp assaulting that way you get a "good roll".

Bomb hex 2 or 3 times from air first, you can also attack with 1 division several times first. The russian guys I play do this tactic all time vs panzer divisions. Which by the way is really stupid because of the moral I gain from the holds, BUT ina case of taking a city it is worth the truoble.

So bomb hex 2 times, small assualts from some crap unit then main assault from units with Model, stugs and poineers. Also allot of artillary in the divisions and army HQ's. They all need to be withen 5 hexs the turn before also.

I would still try to pocket it, but I dought it be easy. Might be best to just assault the city.

Leningrad can easly be cracked so can Moscow.

Almost forgot HQ build-up also helps allot by having allot of ammo on hand. That can be done several turns before assault.

In your case I would just kick the door in, but I dont have all the info.

Pelton



heliodorus04 -> North Moscow AO (11/28/2011 4:35:32 AM)

Incidentally, and before I go on: I’m on turn 20, and I can find no record of Turn 19 screenshots or anything. I think I might have saved both T19 and T18 pictures in the T18 file, because I’ve captured every turn in writing. Nothing seems missing. Continuing:

On the one hand, Pelton, I see your point, and on the other, the difference between Leningrad and Moscow is frontage. Leningrad compresses a defense, and you don’t attack Leningrad proper (the dense urban hex) until it’s out of supply.

There’s something weird going on north of Moscow, though, and I don’t know why he’s doing this. I don’t know if it’s a mistake or a setup… Check out this early picture (post recon, almost nothing moved):



[image]local://upfiles/30405/49EFAC40900A43018A0C59F5CDE7A701.jpg[/image]

See the white circle: I’m pretty sure I have severed that rail junction, and that would explain why he’s not counting on a defense up there. He’s got the river well defended and fortified. But if I could get to the towns circled, I could cut the last rail line. I don’t know what’s possible in snow in terms of movement distance, but I’m venturing that in a 3-turn sprint, you’d either be doing a ‘raid’ that costs you a division, or it’s just not possible.

The next tactical question confronting me at Moscow and the Donets is this: how far can I move in 3 turns of attack, and how will I defend myself the first turn of blizzard? Those are frightening questions that I don’t have experience to answer.



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