RE: Disposition2 (Full Version)

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heliodorus04 -> RE: Disposition2 (12/1/2011 5:44:20 AM)

Southern disposition (the earlier large front shot did not have recon conducted).
This area is still, IMO, weakly held and very vulnerable.


[image]local://upfiles/30405/DA3F832F96F34914AFAB9444AC254C89.jpg[/image]
I view that as an simple and achievable plan. From there, I can give a lot of ground once blizzard hits.



Peltonx -> RE: Disposition2 (12/1/2011 10:18:08 AM)

After a game has closed I will go to the AAR of my enemy and check it out.

Most times the guy had gotten great advice from vetern players and done just the opposite. I see this over and over on other AAR's of which I am no part also. The the person in question is upset with the game and the truth is if he had taken there advise his head would not have gotten handed to him on a plate.

You need to consider what poeple like Q-ball are telling you about your winter defences. He knows what he is talking about, not because hes any smarter then you, but he probably got his teeth kicked in once in the past and is a good judge of the game based on experiance.

I like your plans south of Moscow, north you look ok. Cutting the rails will not help out in December, but later as you with draw west.

You have done better then most german players on your first try for sure and the game is still in the balance.

Don't get hung up on how much land you give back.

As far as Moscow assault goes, you just dont have the troops. You could have taken the city, but would have had to have the troops in plase before mud or very close.



ComradeP -> RE: Disposition2 (12/1/2011 10:32:12 AM)

Helio, keep in mind that snow adds 1 MP to the movement cost for each hex, which makes that sickle cut you're planning towards Voronezh and then west unlikely to happen. It would be unlikely to work in the summer, not to mention the winter.

The move to the bay of Taganrog is >not< a good idea because the defenders wouldn't be isolated. The Soviets would still hold the port of Osipenko and there are air bases in the area.

Do yourself a favour and maul the Soviet units at the frontline, but don't make any major pushes.



Q-Ball -> RE: Disposition2 (12/1/2011 8:35:37 PM)

Not only that, but you basically have just 2 turns in Snow, because that last one you really need to wrap up, finish off any last attacks, and go to the defensive.

I would limit Snow attacks to just gaining a few hexes in front of you, mauling a few Soviet units, and immediately giving those hexes back when Blizzard hits.

Aside from that, I would be really concerned not only about the lack of forts you have, but the gaps all over the place. Not a big deal now, but a single Rifle units shoved in all those gaps will cause a crisis the first turn of Blizzard.

Also, all those shots show Cav and Reserves gathering around the Donbas, and Voronezh. That is ominous.



Peltonx -> RE: Disposition2 (12/1/2011 8:57:04 PM)

Great advice heliodorus04 make sure you consider the words from ComradeP and Q-ball who have won and lost a few games.

It is your game and you can make us eat crow, but you still have a very good chance to win this during 42.

Pelton



heliodorus04 -> RE: Disposition2 (12/1/2011 9:44:41 PM)

No one's answered my question about whether the destroyed units total offers me any encouragement.
I take it that it does not.



Q-Ball -> RE: Disposition2 (12/1/2011 10:06:44 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: heliodorus04

No one's answered my question about whether the destroyed units total offers me any encouragement.
I take it that it does not.



You destroyed quite a bit; it's higher than I did against Bletchley Geek. You killed quite a few guys, and had a good summer, IMO.

Cannonfodder, though, still has plenty to bite back with, and the Russians during November get about 200,000 reinforcements (not replacements, fully formed new units), that are generally decent quality (for the Soviets anyway). These are the Siberians from the Far East.

Not sure what Cannonfodder's Armament situation is, but because he holds Moscow, the Donbas, he is getting a fair number of new Manpower each turn, probably over 120K still



Flaviusx -> RE: Disposition2 (12/1/2011 10:10:50 PM)

Killing all that cavalry is going to help quite a bit. You've removed a good third of it. That's 6 less cavalry corps that won't be made in this game. Call it 200 APs of unit destruction in round terms.

But as for the rest of it, not that important tbh. Most of this unit destruction occurred before November, and therefore most of it will be coming back. The Soviets will have a difficult time finding the replacements to fill all those units out, however. Manpower is going to be a lot tighter in 42. They'll also need training time. But it's only the stuff you kill now that is really going to put the squeeze on APs, cavalry aside.




heliodorus04 -> RE: Disposition2 (12/1/2011 10:45:58 PM)

200 APs worth of Cav is the first good news I've heard.
I still think I can drive to the Sea of Azov, and I think my AGS situation is dire enough that I ought to try.







ComradeP -> RE: Disposition2 (12/2/2011 12:34:43 PM)

Helio, I already told you that your plan wouldn't isolate the defenders, so ignore that comment if you will, but be willing to face the consequences (the failure of your plan with your mobile units stuck in a bad position by the blizzard).

Without starting to prepare now, this will be like a rerun of the game between Tarhunnas and Q-Ball. Both sides knew how to attack, but made big mistakes when defending. In Tarhunnas case, it end up costing him dearly. Learn from the mistakes of others, don't repeat them.

Before the Axis player counts his blessings in terms of unit destruction, you should keep in mind what the Soviet player can lose. For example: they get 75 or so Rifle divisions for free out of brigade conversion to divisions, and all of them will be at 50 morale or slightly higher by the point of their conversion if the brigades haven't been used at the frontline. The will be understrength as divisions if formed from 2 brigades, though, but the morale is there.

The cavalry losses could matter, as cavalry corps are very useful units, but all of that depends on how your opponent wants to build up his army. There's also a decent chance cavalry corps will become less effective in the future as some members of the team view them as too effective currently.



heliodorus04 -> RE: Disposition2 (12/2/2011 2:31:03 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

Helio, I already told you that your plan wouldn't isolate the defenders, so ignore that comment if you will, but be willing to face the consequences (the failure of your plan with your mobile units stuck in a bad position by the blizzard).

Without starting to prepare now, this will be like a rerun of the game between Tarhunnas and Q-Ball. Both sides knew how to attack, but made big mistakes when defending. In Tarhunnas case, it end up costing him dearly. Learn from the mistakes of others, don't repeat them.


I heard you, I've taken your advice under advisement, and I've adjusted my plan accordingly. You are not wrong. I'll fill in the rest of my turn's moves, though I'm still arranging airfields and command structures.



heliodorus04 -> RE: Disposition2 (12/2/2011 2:31:32 PM)

Here is the battlefield summary of CF’s bombing. I learned recently the value of stacking on HQs your airbases, but it’s probably already too late for me. I’m down to 200 fighters with Germany… I’m not sure what else I can do. Another area where hindsight gives the Soviet an a-historic advantage: While the Red AF had no coordinated ability to launch strategic bombing against air assets of the Luftwaffe, that’s what gets to happen here… Note that CF is now bombing Romanian, Italian, and Hungarian airfields. Truly the Red AF is master of the skies.


[image]local://upfiles/30405/09C934EDA99A49CC85A84BD0A11177BC.jpg[/image]



heliodorus04 -> RE: Disposition2 (12/2/2011 2:32:11 PM)

As with most AARs, the slow turns get summarized.
AGN Summary: Untangled 18. & 16.Army corps. Prepared more divisions for removal from AGN.

Prepared to walk away from Vyshny Volicheck/Kalinin to the Valdai hills over course of blizzard. No activity but digging planned for Snow.

AGC Summary:
Moscow attack cancelled. Ryazan salient will phase westward starting T23. Holding it on T22 prevents easy movement of Moscow forces south. Will try to increase fortifications and hope to hold at Rzhev-Orel.
Tula’s offensive focuses on two rail junctions:



[image]local://upfiles/30405/424601DE9E8943918BE7B51E115171EA.jpg[/image]



heliodorus04 -> RE: Disposition2 (12/2/2011 2:34:13 PM)

For new people to playing Germany, the deciding factor in my recognition that a major encirclement is not possible here is seeing how long it has taken me in the past to eliminate units in a pocket (it’s much harder now than 1.04). Even the Izyum pocket, 24 divisions, took 4 turns. I have 2 (as someone said, because the third turn of snow requires Germany to disengage cleanly).

The northern rail junction isn’t as critical as the southern. Any damage to the rail line between Orel and the northern circle is helpful. In the south, if I can get to the first rail junction (not circled; west of southern one) that’s helpful. That line running south form the circle is cut where I closed the Izyum pocket.

I do feel that I have some security in the rail distances he will have to cover. I know cav can go far from railhead, but I also know I’ve reduced the cav by a factor that should matter (the problem is I will not have December shelter from the weather).



heliodorus04 -> RE: Disposition2 (12/2/2011 2:35:08 PM)

AGS Summary:
I’m setting up a thin line of forts east of D-&Z-towns. Just hoping to buffer a turn of Soviet movement to buy time for cities to fortify in those first couple December turns.


[image]local://upfiles/30405/0BA661F0CEE3459EBD8C84BE0FCCE80F.jpg[/image]



heliodorus04 -> RE: Disposition2 (12/2/2011 2:37:50 PM)

This is also a rail line objective. And as I sit here looking at the map, I think I see something of CF’s mindset. He appears to have committed very seriously to maintaining that north-south rail line where my Hungarians are. He doesn’t want me knocking him off it because he needs it for offense. But as has happened elsewhere in our game, he’s left a backdoor.
I also started setting down more forts (based on size 2+ towns, or spots where I already had a level 1 fort.

Who knows if it will help. You guys have me convinced I’m doomed. One last picture:



heliodorus04 -> RE: Disposition2 (12/2/2011 2:38:26 PM)

The Crimea
To me, this does not look like prep for an offensive by the Soviet out of the Crimea.
What do others think?

[image]local://upfiles/30405/A4E3364A62C943AD810F12E120DF8240.jpg[/image]



Q-Ball -> RE: Disposition2 (12/2/2011 3:13:46 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: heliodorus04

The Crimea
To me, this does not look like prep for an offensive by the Soviet out of the Crimea.
What do others think?


Hard to say, he may just be limiting attrition losses.

One thing everyone should note: Attacking out of the Crimea, as Soviets, isn't easy. You are not on a railnet, so units tend not to gain replacements at an amazing rate, and burn out over time. If you want to sustain an attack, you probably need to send a few fresh units in via Sea, and rotate out burned ones. This takes time, though, and costs APs. Germans should know this too.

Despite this, I think you can expect attacks there, because your defenses are pretty pitiful. 6-ish divisions and no forts. They will be easily pushed in December, unless you dig fast. The most vulnerable hex once Blizzard hits is actually the swamp hex in the middle, because it can be attacked from 2 hexes once the water freezes, not just one. I probably don't have to tell you that Romanian troops are really really bad in December.

BTW, you should ask Cannonfodder to stop all the AIRBASE attacks. Maybe ComradeP or Flav can weigh-in, but given where the air model is, it's borderline gamey. Most Soviet players will not do this, because you can nuke the Luftwaffe a-historically.



ComradeP -> RE: Disposition2 (12/2/2011 3:39:56 PM)

Joel was wondering whether air base bombing missions were still a problem using the latest version, I'll point him to this thread.

As to the Crimea: even though it is indeed difficult for the Soviets to get replacements into the area, it's not difficult for them to blow through those "defences."

As stated, be prepared to fall back to the Dnepr, because I'd be surprised if those defences last even a single turn.



heliodorus04 -> RE: Disposition2 (12/2/2011 3:49:06 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

Joel was wondering whether air base bombing missions were still a problem using the latest version, I'll point him to this thread.

As to the Crimea: even though it is indeed difficult for the Soviets to get replacements into the area, it's not difficult for them to blow through those "defences."

As stated, be prepared to fall back to the Dnepr, because I'd be surprised if those defences last even a single turn.

I will.
Could we please tone down the allusions to my incompetence in defense. I haven't been in Blizzard as German in 9 months. Can we at least offset them with any information about where I've done well?

/edit
I passed on Q-ball's comment to CF
Says having 10,000 planes idle is not historical.
Not sure if he objects to the halt, or if he just wants something to do with his planes?

One of my chief complaints against the people who are generally Soviet players only (and this is not directed at CF): when something is advantageous to the Soviet (like AP for switching divisions compared to German), they say "But the Soviet was designed that way."

When they get freedoms that are a-historic, they throw out a tiny, anecdotal exception and say "This proves Soviets could do it" and extrapolate it to the whole army.

When they get a huge, mechanical advantage due to game design, they say "But it's an abstraction that shouldn't be seen literally."

The air war is an example of the latter. Air bases are abstracted, enabling the Soviet to line up a strategic bombing campaign whose coordination and competence far surpasses Germans in the Battle of Britain.



sillyflower -> RE: Disposition2 (12/2/2011 4:43:29 PM)

Baelfiin had been bombing Luftwaffe into the ground in our game ( currently August '42) but he self-limited to only 2-3 attacks per base per turn which is manageable since I turned off ground support a few turns ago when I had hardly a LW unit at even 40% strength. This was post-patch. Without the patch I would not have had an AF but it's recovering, albeit having to be wholly passive except for very rare offensive forays.

I don't think LW would have survived without B's generosity. I will ask him to comment on this from the baddie's perspective.



Flaviusx -> RE: Disposition2 (12/2/2011 4:47:54 PM)

I just have not found airbase bombing near as effective post patch. It chews through your bombers now at a prodigious and unsustainable rate, at least in 1941. I've evolved a different air strategy for 41 now anyways and it's working pretty good, at least against the AI, need to try it in a PBEM.

Prior to 1.05 the attritional airbase attack was completely viable and quite ridiculous and I flatly refused to do it. If more needs to be done to reign it in, I'm cool with that, but I'm not seeing it.




ComradeP -> RE: Disposition2 (12/2/2011 4:52:29 PM)

quote:

Could we please tone down the allusions to my incompetence in defense. I haven't been in Blizzard as German in 9 months. Can we at least offset them with any information about where I've done well?


Helio, if you think I'm talking about your defense being incompetence, you misunderstand my point. I'm saying what I'm saying so your defense will be adequate by the time it matters. Currently, it's not a big issue, but it will be a big issue in the blizzard.

You've done well in terms of keeping Soviet strength at a manageable level, and the general pace of your offensive was also good, although it's unfortunate gains in the south were limited.

We're not trying to dogpile you with comments about how shoddy your defenses are, we're trying to make sure the blizzard won't be a nightmare to you. It might not sound like it's constructive, but it sure as hell is intended that way.

Flavio: one thing that makes air base bombing viable for the Soviets is the enormous amount of level bombers that are useless for anything other than air base bombing or partisan resupply. Running out of Il-2's when flying ground support missions with them is quite possible, but it will take a pretty long while to run out of SB-2's or the other 1930's bombers you start with. The majority of the VVS is outdated and obsolete at the start of Barbarossa, so losing it isn't really a problem. A large part of the Luftwaffe is roughly as high tech as it will be for most of the war.



Flaviusx -> RE: Disposition2 (12/2/2011 4:58:35 PM)

Ah, but Pieter, they do have other uses than those. I'm going all in for interdiction spam now. No ground support. And I'm using mostly level bombers to do it. This is enormously economical in terms of air losses, too, I'm finding ground support stupidly expensive in airframes in 1941 with little or nothing in return for the effort involved. I'm just sending all tactical air to the national reserve until 1942 when it actually can fly missions effectively.

Also: fighter bombers are not bad for interdiction.



ComradeP -> RE: Disposition2 (12/2/2011 5:20:03 PM)

Given the choice between interdiction, with limited effectiveness, or the near complete destruction of the Luftwaffe's combat capabilities, I'd pick the latter if I would not object to it.

How many interdictions do you get where you're certain they have a serious effect on enemy MP's? I get about 4 per air command, per turn if I'm lucky.

The destruction or damaging of the Luftwaffe's transport and level bomber fleets, thus significantly reducing German mobile unit MP's, seems like a far more effective way of slowing down the Germans.

The issue of "the Luftwaffe can't be everywhere at once" is also quite clear by 1942, as I'm flying ~100 fighter ~100 tactical bomber air missions that are barely intercepted at all. In the air war, the VVS still has a number of clear advantages over the Luftwaffe that it shouldn't have.



Flaviusx -> RE: Disposition2 (12/2/2011 5:26:02 PM)

It takes a few turns to sort out the surprise attack mess, but by mid summer I was getting 10-12 interdiction hit at least, and sometimes quite a bit more. Later on in the year this was approaching 20 strikes a turn.

The stars of this show? Would you believe the I-153 and SB2?



heliodorus04 -> RE: Disposition2 (12/2/2011 5:40:07 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

It takes a few turns to sort out the surprise attack mess, but by mid summer I was getting 10-12 interdiction hit at least, and sometimes quite a bit more. Later on in the year this was approaching 20 strikes a turn.

The stars of this show? Would you believe the I-153 and SB2?

As an aside: Since the interdiction patch a few weeks ago, it is fewer than 5 percent of interdictions lead to a loss of MP that keeps me out of a hex I wanted. I now consider it fairly toothless (against the Axis).



Flaviusx -> RE: Disposition2 (12/2/2011 5:41:54 PM)

One in twenty?

Sounds like we went overboard in nerfing interdiction.



heliodorus04 -> RE: Disposition2 (12/2/2011 5:43:03 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: ComradeP

quote:

Could we please tone down the allusions to my incompetence in defense. I haven't been in Blizzard as German in 9 months. Can we at least offset them with any information about where I've done well?


Helio, if you think I'm talking about your defense being incompetence, you misunderstand my point. I'm saying what I'm saying so your defense will be adequate by the time it matters. Currently, it's not a big issue, but it will be a big issue in the blizzard.



From my perspective, all I've heard regarding my defense is that it's incredibly under-developed in the south.

I haven't seen it analyzed in the north (where I think it's great, but I probably built it too far east for my own good).

In the center, where I plan to phase-retreat west, I'm not sure if you think it's adequate.

In the south, all I can say is that I can feel the cold on my buttocks since it's hanging out there in the breeze, but I don't know what I should be doing and where.

I intend to give up a lot of ground in the Blizzard, the question is how can I mitigate the loss of manpower from the weather. I would rather lose terrain than men.



Q-Ball -> RE: Disposition2 (12/2/2011 5:48:32 PM)

I apologize for sounding critical, just trying to help. As I said, I think you had a very good summer, and destroyed more than a fair share of units. I just think you are at risk of giving back alot of those gains.

That being said, I agree that you are hanging out there in the South.

Looking North, I frankly don't think you're hugely prepared there either from what I can tell before, but the terrain is favoriable (light woods and swamps), so that helps mitigate the lack of forts. The Valdai Hills is a position that should hold regardless of whether your fortify it.

The Germans really have to plan on creating 100+ Fort Zones, mostly to "save" forts that are built (they really don't build much on their own). Don't forget to set Fort Zones to non-Refit, and 50% TOE so they don't steal all your replacements.

I still think you are going to have a rough Blizzard, if Cannonfodder is worth his salt



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