RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (Full Version)

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governato -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/22/2012 2:34:03 AM)

quote:

* Randomize Soviet setup slightly (to prevent those perfect openings rehearsed 100 times against the AI).


I totally agree. This option has been suggested a few times before and it would prevent players from perfecting the first move. Would it be easy enough to code? Would any of the developers comment?



Tarhunnas -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/22/2012 5:43:32 AM)

I started a separate thread on possible ways to prevent the Lvov pocket and improve the first turn.



Flaviusx -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/22/2012 2:08:48 PM)

Hitman does bring up a good possible explanation for the curious opener up north.

And I agree with him: my response to this would be to merely picket the Germans up here and otherwise pile everything on the Pskov line. I don't see much point in trying to defend the Baltics proper. I'd dump a bunch of NKVD here, but otherwise send the real units to the Pskov area. (Actually, I go farther than this. The Pskov area I consider to be a place to make an outright stand, not merely screen. The Luga line is worthless. After the Pskov line falls, the next fallback position is Leningrad-Novgorod. The western end of the Luga is just pocket bait and not worth defending.)

However, this may or may not be consistent with the spirit of the forward defense house rule. (As with my idea in the south to starve SW Front of reinforcements rather than throwing good money after bad.) Tarhunnas may feel honorbound to attempt a stand at the Dvina.



HITMAN202 -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/22/2012 3:25:34 PM)

I'll get egg on my face for disagreeing with you (you're insight into this game is amazing... I have played a lot of chess.. am a class "A" player.... and though I couldn't play like a master ... knew it when I saw it ... and you are a master at this game !!!) but level 2 forts on the Luga pose more of a dilemma to the Krauts than a weaker stand at Pskov. As I said earlier, German infantry can hit Pskov hard on turn #4. In fact the 6 AGN Pz divisions usually can cross the Velikaya on turn 3 and open the door,so to speak, for their slower brothers. There are a lot of clear hexes north of Pskov to boot. I think that the 2 extra turns preparing a defensive line on the Luga river (with better terrain to boot) offers the best chance in slowing up the German juggernaut.



Tarhunnas -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/22/2012 4:12:56 PM)

I am pretty certain he will not reach Pskov with the delay-checkerboard I put up behind the river. In fact, my guess is he will not get very far beyond the Dvina, AND that he might not really want that. I think he is aiming more east. But I might have to eat my words here, because I have the next turn in my inbox (or rather, on the server), but cannot look at it until I get home. I am not sure if I am dreading or anticipating the opening of the turn... [:'(] As the Soviets, any turn can be one of those "oh sh*t"-turns when you open the turn to find you got half your army surrounded. I will get my smelling salt ready before I open up the turn [;)].



Panzer Meyer -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/22/2012 4:28:30 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: HITMAN202

I'll get egg on my face for disagreeing with you (you're insight into this game is amazing... I have played a lot of chess.. am a class "A" player.... and though I couldn't play like a master ... knew it when I saw it ... and you are a master at this game !!!) but level 2 forts on the Luga pose more of a dilemma to the Krauts than a weaker stand at Pskov. As I said earlier, German infantry can hit Pskov hard on turn #4. In fact the 6 AGN Pz divisions usually can cross the Velikaya on turn 3 and open the door,so to speak, for their slower brothers. There are a lot of clear hexes north of Pskov to boot. I think that the 2 extra turns preparing a defensive line on the Luga river (with better terrain to boot) offers the best chance in slowing up the German juggernaut.

That's precisely where the Soviets made a stand in the real war as well.



Tarhunnas -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/22/2012 6:40:44 PM)

Turn 2. Before Soviet moves but after recon.

The enemy seems to concentrate more on surrounding the remaining Soviet units that gaining ground. Remarkably small advance in the north, relatively mild advance in Byelorussia. A nasty pocket in the South. The pockets look very solid, my opponent makes no mistakes at all! This is a little creepy, everyone I played so far has made some little mistakes somewhere. I feel a little like one of those medical heroes who infect themselves with some horrible disease and then make notes as the disease progresses.


[image]local://upfiles/37384/ACBDFC1C804D43F0A81D756A7D977D63.jpg[/image]



Flaviusx -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/22/2012 6:58:53 PM)

If you keep checkerboarding he'll just keep gobbling stuff up like this, Tarhunnas. Checkerboards don't work against players who know how to herd them. I quit doing this a while ago.

Switch over to picketing with a strong MLR well to the east of that. Although that may not be consistent with your self imposed house rules.








Klydon -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/22/2012 7:00:24 PM)

I wonder how long he will continue to leave/make use of broken down motorized/panzer divisions.



Flaviusx -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/22/2012 7:05:09 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Klydon

I wonder how long he will continue to leave/make use of broken down motorized/panzer divisions.


As long as he can get away with it. Red Army lacks the forces to counter it at present. Tarhunnas doesn't even have a coherent front anywhere.



Tarhunnas -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/22/2012 7:55:34 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

If you keep checkerboarding he'll just keep gobbling stuff up like this, Tarhunnas. Checkerboards don't work against players who know how to herd them. I quit doing this a while ago.

Switch over to picketing with a strong MLR well to the east of that. Although that may not be consistent with your self imposed house rules.



Oh, I think it would. Especially as I've already put up a stiff fight I think.



timmyab -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/22/2012 8:28:27 PM)

Search long and hard for a way to break those pockets.
Failing that I think you may have to picket the South and move most of the Southern front North East.Look to make a stand from the Sinyukha river Northwards and put strength into the good terrain especially the rough hexes.There's one in particular just to the North of the town of Lysyanka which is a right pain in the but for the Axis player.
Given the circumstances, I wouldn't call that running away.



notenome -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/22/2012 8:39:45 PM)

MichaelT might be doing something I've long wanted to do in a GC AAR as Axis, a Moscow first drive. His 4th (or is it 1st? The AGN one) Panzergroup has achieved operational flexibility, he can either strike north or Pskov or strike west through Velkie Luki. You might be facing three Panzergroups in the Center, and I'd advise you to give priority there, and SW front, where your situation is quite poor. I'd follow Flavs advice and leave SW to its own devices, spread them out to slow down the Germans and concentrate on a Dnepr line. Just don't send anything across the river.



glvaca -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/22/2012 8:46:49 PM)

Well, seriously, I think you can't.
I'm not saying it's not the sensible thing to do, but you agreed not too.
It's your call, but that's my honest opinion.



Flaviusx -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/22/2012 8:55:12 PM)

It is 4 PG up north. The initial deployment of the panzer groups run ass backwards, 4-3-2-1 from north to south. I never understood this arrangement, must be some kind of General Staff convention.

You find even odder arrangements with the Red Army. In the late war period, for example, the Ukrainian Fronts in 1944 run 1-2-3 from north to south, which is reasonable enough. (A 4. Ukrainian Front gets inserted in the Carpathians later on between 1. and 2. Ukrainian, but set that aside for the moment.)

But the Belorussian Fronts run the opposite way, from south to north, as do the Baltic Fronts, totally inconsistent.






Tarhunnas -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/22/2012 10:07:33 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Klydon

I wonder how long he will continue to leave/make use of broken down motorized/panzer divisions.


Not for long I'd guess! [sm=00000622.gif]

quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
Red Army lacks the forces to counter it at present. Tarhunnas doesn't even have a coherent front anywhere.


Oh yeah? Where there's a will there's a way!

The valiant 31st Rifle Corps heads a counterattack that drives back part of 14th Panzer division and breaks the pocket!

In the southern corner of the pocket, the now reinvigorated 5th Mech Corps punches out to the southeast and retreats the Grossdeutschland Regiment! The way is now open to displace a Panzer HQ and isolate the German panzer spearhead!

The enemy will reestablish the pocket in a turn of course, but their panzer gropup will suffer fatigue and have a poor supply situation next turn.

[image]local://upfiles/37384/A87A8244D801464F8A154BEE0DEE406D.jpg[/image]



Tarhunnas -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/22/2012 10:15:07 PM)

The other pockets are unbreakable unfortunately. The only other mischief I can do is retreat a couple of unwary Rumanians (It's not even worth delaying down west of Odessa, the Rumanians have severe trouble taking undefended terrain. Can they even march in step?).
In one case the attack exposes a German HQ to displacement. Always something!

Map of the south after German moves. I continue to rely on a checkerboard west of the Dnepr. And for the doom-prophets in the audience, no, he won't cross the Dnepr! His panzers will be tired, low on fuel, and spreading out the regiments has a penalty when you want to collect them together and go forward again. And my checkerboard is deep enough.

[image]local://upfiles/37384/8D5218C9940F40A284491135833B83D3.jpg[/image]



Tarhunnas -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/22/2012 10:21:22 PM)

And the north and center after Soviet moves. Checkerboard behind the Berezina. I think the Dnepr will hold. Uncertain what he will do with the concentration west of Vitebsk, he might go anywhere, and I can't be strong everywhere, but in my experience, the panzers will need a breather on turn 3.

Note that I try always to put a Soviet unit next to every panzer stack, to prevent them resting and to maximize attrition. It also will force them to attack away that Soviet unit or suffer the penalty of moving out of ZOC. I think it works, it costs Soviet units, but after 5 or 6 turns, the panzers will be appreciably weaker. Especially if you can keep the German infantry at a distance so the panzers will have to do their own attacking as much as possible.

[image]local://upfiles/37384/737632D372E3440296E5DD11B98E5A49.jpg[/image]



Flaviusx -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/22/2012 10:41:45 PM)

The problem here is that you are doubling down and risking getting even more units trapped, Tarhunnas.

I agree with the practice of placing zocs everywhere and especially on the mobile units. But I prefer doing this by mere pickets, which limit your liability, rather than throwing more and more units into a checkerboard that stands on the precipice of disaster. A point will come when it tips over.

I still predict he will cross the Dnepr in the south on or about turn 6. The only question in my mind is how much he bags along the way west of the Dnepr. More rather than less given these moves.




Tarhunnas -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/22/2012 10:47:50 PM)

Yes, to some extent I am raising the stakes, and increasing my losses, but I am also wearing down the Germans.  I can replace my losses, the Germans can't.

It is also a matter of establishing fear and respect. Once the Germans have had a couple of mobile regiments or even divisions pushed back, they will be much more careful, which will benefit me in the long run.



timmyab -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/22/2012 10:59:59 PM)

well done in the South.That should slow him down a bit.
I've noticed how powerful Soviet counterattacks are.I usually try to counterattack at 2-1 odds even in 41 to be on the safe side, but I needn't bother it seems because they nearly always get turned around in the Soviet favor with German CVs often plummeting.I've yet to have a counterattack fail.
Interesting situation in the North.Are his tanks fueled up?If not then the loss of momentum could prove serious up there.Maybe he's going for a Southern strategy.




notenome -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/22/2012 11:00:20 PM)

Nice counterattack, I agree with the aggressive mentality. Though it can backfire



Flaviusx -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/22/2012 11:12:33 PM)

People read too much into CVs. It's better to consider raw numbers when planning a counterattack.

My rule of thumb is this: 3 divisions can push back a regiment in open terrain, assuming the +1 rule. I don't really care about the CVs on either side, these are notional representations of unit strength prior to combat. Morale/fatigue/supply are also important, and if these are sketchy, stuff gets kicked back even easier. 30,000 Russians yelling hurrah against a tired out panzer regiment with 5k guys is a fight the Soviets should win on raw numbers alone due to the peculiarities of the combat model. (If Pieter were here he would tell you why this drives him crazy.)




Encircled -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/24/2012 12:57:45 PM)

quote:

It is also a matter of establishing fear and respect. Once the Germans have had a couple of mobile regiments or even divisions pushed back, they will be much more careful, which will benefit me in the long run.


Fully agree




notenome -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/24/2012 3:42:07 PM)

Yeah, I try to use a 3 to 4 to 1 rule for counterattacking, in guns and men. If I have that, and good C & C, I should generally win.



Balou -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/24/2012 6:34:25 PM)

Tarhunnas, what units are you preferably using in your zoc-game ?



Tarhunnas -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/24/2012 6:41:55 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Balou

Tarhunnas, what units are you preferably using in your zoc-game ?


Most of the time, it will be whatever is to hand. The units doing the ZOC-ing will be most at risk from encirclements, so if I can chose, I take NKVD regiments or armor divisions for exposed positions.



Tarhunnas -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/26/2012 3:01:24 PM)

Turn 3. Things are not going well! I am getting a lot more units pocketed, and the pockets look unbreakable. Michael T is proving an extremely able opponent, and is playing very well indeed! Flaviusx was right, checkerboard won't do against this kind of opponent. Indeed, I am getting second thoughts about fighting forward - that too might not do against this kind of opponent.

Map after recon but before Soviet moves.

[image]local://upfiles/37384/2BA2A4F491694E069F3DFFE30626DFD4.jpg[/image]



Tarhunnas -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/26/2012 3:05:22 PM)

Map of the center after Soviet moves. I patch together a defense at the landbridge, but I am uncertain if it will hold. I am running out of units. The one thing that makes me able to put together a front is that there is no threat at all to Leningrad.

I am well forward on evacuations though, I have not lost any ARM except at Kiev, though I don't expect that to last in the long run. I expect further pressure in the Moscow direction, so I evacuate Bryansk, Ordzhonikidzegrad and Kaluga this turn.

[image]local://upfiles/37384/71DE6951A7494671A6D2B354CF471A0D.jpg[/image]



Callistrid -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/26/2012 3:29:34 PM)

Here is another example of why is stupid to stand and fight with the soviet on the first 1-5 turn



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