RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (Full Version)

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Tarhunnas -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/26/2012 3:50:54 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Callistrid

Here is another example of why is stupid to stand and fight with the soviet on the first 1-5 turn


It has worked very well for me in earlier games, but I am coming around to the view that it depends on the opponent. If the German makes mistakes, and it takes only small mistakes, then it is certainly a viable strategy. Against a very good German that makes almost no mistakes, it is proving harder. Also I think it makes a difference that Michael T is using a very meticulous pocketing strategy, eschewing deep penetrations. I think this also makes a difference in the kind of counterstrategy that can be employed by the Soviet player! Though we have not seen the end of this yet!



Callistrid -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/26/2012 4:06:25 PM)

I'm a retreat fun with the soviet because:

- south, the dnyepr can be held for a short time, if you can build fortifications in the rough, swamp, and city terrarian. The second line is the river. Leaving the stalin-line will grant the survive your armies

- in center you buy time with the river defense, and slow retreat, plus in the maintime you can build the defense line west drom Vyazma

- on north the luga, and the great swamp/forest region can hold the german ambitions.

Plus the most important benefit of the soviet retreat:
1. The german motorized units will fight, not the INF
2. Less pockets will be created
3. You will save your manpowers, and divs.
4. The german mobility will reduce, because he's supply line is far, and the german airpower is not enough big to provide them fully



Flaviusx -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/26/2012 4:20:48 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Callistrid

Here is another example of why is stupid to stand and fight with the soviet on the first 1-5 turn


It can be done, but not in the places Tarhunnas is doing. I always make a stand at Pskov, where I rush a ton of reserve armies. I think it is impossible to do so down south after a strong Lvov opener, all you can do down there is delay a bit.



TulliusDetritus -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/26/2012 4:20:55 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas
I am running out of units.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas
Turn 3. Things are not going well! I am getting a lot more units pocketed, and the pockets look unbreakable. [...] Indeed, I am getting second thoughts about fighting forward - that too might not do against this kind of opponent.


Wait wait wait. As per the rules you cannot withdraw. This hasn't been said but I don't think putting your first line of defence (and then the second, etc.) let's say 10 hexes away from enemy units is an option... as that would mean you are giving up big chunks of land (and this Michael does not like either).

So as I see it, what Michael is demanding is 1) bring units forward (to fight for every inch of Soviet soil) and 2) do NOT retreat them once the German hordes arrive... and then have them easily surrounded [:D] Rinse and Repeat.

Now what was your first comment? Again:

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas
I am running out of units.


I would be surprised if this will not be a military parade... Yes, you will get tons of shells on turn 10 or so. But still, as per the rules you will have to 1) bring them forward and 2) not one step back. The question is: when they will be destoyed too what will be left?

I might of course be utterly wrong, but if I am not the conclusion is simple: the German pace of advance is too fast and/or soviet units are too weak (1:1 ants)

Said this, I affirm Michael has a point and that the Red Army should do what you are doing (as per history). But there must be a reward aka hold German advance as per history [;)] and if after your generous fight this becomes a military parade, Houston, we have a problem...



Flaviusx -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/26/2012 4:22:30 PM)

Tarhunnas, I repeat, stop checkerboarding. He is just going to gobble them up. Checkerboards are flat out useless against strong Germans players, they merely herd them into pockets. Picket and MLR.




TulliusDetritus -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/26/2012 4:26:21 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
Picket and MLR.


Nope. That would violate the rule, sorry. He must bring them forward [;)]



Tarhunnas -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/26/2012 4:28:46 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus
As per the rules you cannot withdraw.


We have not agreed on never ever to withdraw, I think you are overstating this. We said no runaways, but withdrawing a bit after being soundly beaten hardly comes under the heading runaway, we actually discussed that.

Actually, up to now I haven't done a thing different than I would have done if we had had no anti-runaway agreement whatsoever! I normally fight well forward, but I am revising my ideas on how this should be done. Learning from experience one might say. Michael T is by far the best German player I have been up against. No one even compares closely.



TulliusDetritus -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/26/2012 4:40:17 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas
We have not agreed on never ever to withdraw, I think you are overstating this. We said no runaways, but withdrawing a bit after being soundly beaten hardly comes under the heading runaway, we actually discussed that.


Whatever. I am pretty certain that Michael would not tolerate a first line let's say 15 hexes away from his forces (if we accept 15 hexes, why not 20 or 30?) [;)] So we can safely assume that you must bring your units forward.

Witdrawing a "little bit" when he's got über mobile units (and you've got er... ants) does not make a big difference methinks... Especially when this "little bit" will allow his infantry to catch up...

Isn't this "picket" thing what I sarcastically called on my first PBEM the "cannibal bait"? That is allow his cannibals to lose one turn here and there whilst they devour the sacrificed units? [;)]



TulliusDetritus -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/26/2012 4:49:01 PM)

Said this, I really hope what you are doing works because everyone would be happy: those (German players) who say they Soviets should fight for every inch of Soviet soil (mostly true) and those who think (like me) that in any case, stopping the Germans SHOULD BE possible the same. But right now I can't imagine the latter if the 3 million prisoners are taken...

Your game will tell! [:)]



Flaviusx -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/26/2012 5:04:28 PM)

The picket is designed to slow down the advance with the minimum amount of units, and using the most expendable units. There does come a point where even this becomes expensive, however, and then you have to flat out run and abandon the picket line, relocating the MLR into the supply dead zone.

The location of the MLR is dictated by the enemy's supply situation and movement abilities of the Axis. It won't necessarily be that far back.

It's all about feeding the beast just enough to hold him at bay.

You need certain force densities to make an outright stand. At the beginning of the game it will be impossible to do this anywhere except up north (assuming a strong Lvov opener.)



Tarhunnas -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/26/2012 5:57:12 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Tarhunnas, I repeat, stop checkerboarding. He is just going to gobble them up. Checkerboards are flat out useless against strong Germans players, they merely herd them into pockets. Picket and MLR.



I hear you, and I believe you (now [;)]).



vicberg -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/26/2012 11:56:47 PM)

He is amazing. What he is doing isn't easy as German player. I've never seen anyone cutoff the swamps like he has on turn 3. OMG.

You can't checkerboard until at least turn 4 and only then when the terrain supports it: swamps, forest, rivers and reserve checkboards in good terrain also 3 layers deep. What you are doing now is exactly what the German player wants. Hell, I don't care if you try to carpet. On turns 2 and 3 you are right next to the entire German army. Can't stay there and fight.

Flav, checkerboards can work, but not early in the game. There's aren't enough Soviet units.

Wow, you need to run away. Now. Looking at these turns, you may have upwards of 200 divisions now isolated. Losses probably approaching 2 mil by turn 4.

IMO, he doesn't care about Lgrad or Moscow. Neither will win you the game. They will delay loss. He wants to destroy the red army. Pure and simple. That will win him the game.



TulliusDetritus -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/27/2012 12:28:04 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: vicberg
Wow, you need to run away. Now. Looking at these turns, you may have upwards of 200 divisions now isolated. Losses probably approaching 2 mil by turn 4.


He CANNOT run away. See the rule:

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas
* No Soviet runaways in 1941, Germans continue to attack up to blizzard and no German runaway in blizzard.
* No quitting just because things are going badly.


If he does not bring units forward (and I don't think pickets will fit this mission) = he is giving up for free Soviet soil = he is running away.

If he does not fight until the *last moment* and then retreats a "bit", he will be running away as well... But of course, waiting until the last moment might be a little dangerous and might mean the encirclement of these forces [:D]

This is why this game is so interesting to me. Once for all I will know what happens when the Soviets (in the game) suffer catastrophic losses (as per history)... In fact I am more interested about what will the Germans do at that moment: a military parade perhaps? [;)]

I won't repeat my prediction (wich might be wrong, by the way) as I don't want to hijack Tarhunnas's AAR [:)]

And that's the last I will say. Stick to the plan, rule, Tarhunnas. It's going to be extremely useful...



Flaviusx -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/27/2012 12:29:58 AM)

Vic, if I have that many units, I won't be running a checkerboard. I'll be doing reserve spam. I've basically retired the checkerboard from my play at this point. There's a few rare instance I'll do it because of special circumstances. (NKVD checkerboard in the Baltics on turn 1.)






vicberg -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/27/2012 12:56:36 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: TulliusDetritus


quote:

ORIGINAL: vicberg
Wow, you need to run away. Now. Looking at these turns, you may have upwards of 200 divisions now isolated. Losses probably approaching 2 mil by turn 4.


He CANNOT run away. See the rule:

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas
* No Soviet runaways in 1941, Germans continue to attack up to blizzard and no German runaway in blizzard.
* No quitting just because things are going badly.


If he does not bring units forward (and I don't think pickets will fit this mission) = he is giving up for free Soviet soil = he is running away.

If he does not fight until the *last moment* and then retreats a "bit", he will be running away as well... But of course, waiting until the last moment might be a little dangerous and might mean the encirclement of these forces [:D]

This is why this game is so interesting to me. Once for all I will know what happens when the Soviets (in the game) suffer catastrophic losses (as per history)... In fact I am more interested about what will the Germans do at that moment: a military parade perhaps? [;)]

I won't repeat my prediction (wich might be wrong, by the way) as I don't want to hijack Tarhunnas's AAR [:)]

And that's the last I will say. Stick to the plan, rule, Tarhunnas. It's going to be extremely useful...


Well this is the Soviet is going to die game. Ok. You have to run away turns 2 and 3. Otherwise Death. It's a snowball. He now has less troops to defend. Easier for Germans to break through. This is exactly the situation the Germans want the Soviets shouldn't get themselves into. One or two good encirclements and it snowballs.



vicberg -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/27/2012 12:58:48 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Vic, if I have that many units, I won't be running a checkerboard. I'll be doing reserve spam. I've basically retired the checkerboard from my play at this point. There's a few rare instance I'll do it because of special circumstances. (NKVD checkerboard in the Baltics on turn 1.)





quote:

Vic, if I have that many units, I won't be running a checkerboard. I'll be doing reserve spam. I've basically retired the checkerboard from my play at this point. There's a few rare instance I'll do it because of special circumstances. (NKVD checkerboard in the Baltics on turn 1.)


Sure. It's also who you play, etc. etc.. Checkerboards can work. Not against Germans in early turns. But eventually, yes, as long as the Red Army is preserved.



TulliusDetritus -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/27/2012 1:05:44 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: vicberg
Well this is the Soviet is going to die game. Ok. You have to run away turns 2 and 3. Otherwise Death. It's a snowball.


I don't know that. Tarhunnas is certainly one of the best Soviet players (if not the best) who write AARs [:)]

Anyway, just in case I wasn't clear: "pickets don't fit the mission" because in real life terms, what are they? Rear-guard units. And what are they supposed to do these rear-guard guys? Cover an army which IS leaving the field to the enemy. An euphemism for "run away" that is.



vicberg -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/27/2012 2:41:56 PM)

Actually, this is going to be interesting. It will certainly determine if the game is balanced if the Soviets do a historical 41.



bigbaba -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/28/2012 1:10:39 AM)

checkboarding can work when you have a lesser smart german opponent named bigbaba.:)

i think the best counter strategy against checkboarding russians is to encircle them.

against notenome (a good foreward defending russian) i made a mistake with a deep penetration in the north to pskov. his foreward units were able to cut off the entire PG 4 and i was not able to free them via infantry elements of the 16th and 18th army in the next turn.

so next time i simply destroy russian units. it may give him a temporary advantage in evacuating factories but when his initial army is gone and the green replacements arrive the german will have a much easier time to make up time and will have a much better august and september after all the heavy fighting in july.

this first 4-5 turns against someone who defends every inch of motherland can be very ugly ( i compare it with a knife duell in a telefon cell:)) but after that your "panzermänner" have time to drink beer while driving through russia.:)

so do you agree that the best german strategy against checkboards is to build pockets and the biggest mistake one can do is a deep advance with the panzers?



Tarhunnas -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/28/2012 6:22:23 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: bigbaba
so do you agree that the best german strategy against checkboards is to build pockets


Probably, yes

quote:

ORIGINAL: bigbaba
and the biggest mistake one can do is a deep advance with the panzers?


Well, not necessarily, there are bigger mistakes, like not putting enough pressure at the Soviets at all. But in my experience, deep penetration Axis play style is easier to handle (Pelton for example).

But one has to realize that the whole thing is an interaction between two players. One Soviet strategy might work against one type of Axis player and be dangerous against another. Conversley, one German attack style might be successful against some types of Soviet player but not against others.



randallw -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/28/2012 8:43:18 AM)

If you want to retreat, don't call it retreating. You are simply relocating to better positions.



Tarhunnas -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/29/2012 9:07:27 PM)

This is a map after Soviet moves turn 4. Forgot to take a screenshot at the start of the turn (the disadvantage of server games). The enemy is continuing his Pacman-tactics of gobbling up pockets, though two pockets were broken by counterattacks this turn, at Smolensk and one in at Vinnitsa.

[image]local://upfiles/37384/933E30E57A354D739884355F6617AE76.jpg[/image]



Tarhunnas -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/29/2012 9:09:48 PM)

Here is a closeup of the counterattack at Smolensk. I was a bit lucky there, exactly 2:1 odds...

[image]local://upfiles/37384/E5C321595C174100BBA672C5BCDC1D40.jpg[/image]



Walloc -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/29/2012 9:56:34 PM)

Actually its 1:1 odds at 65:70. Getting the 2:1 via rules [:)]

What ever works..

Rasmus



Klydon -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/29/2012 10:08:25 PM)

I imagine the gas tank needle on a lot of those panzers is starting to bounce on empty. You have done a great job from the standpoint of squeezing his supply lines as much as possible.



Tarhunnas -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/29/2012 10:15:39 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Klydon

I imagine the gas tank needle on a lot of those panzers is starting to bounce on empty. You have done a great job from the standpoint of squeezing his supply lines as much as possible.


Yeah, but I am afraid it is costing me too much. And it is only turn 4!



Farfarer61 -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/30/2012 12:23:33 AM)

I highly recommend "smart" counter-attacks supported by bombing waves, like you are doing. I would interpret no runaway to mean if you establish a line, you try to hold it until doom threatens. So what if it is 15 hexes east behind terrain - you mean 30 MP's for elite Axis mobile forces i.e. readily contactable if he wishes disrupt your plans? Sounds fair to me.



notenome -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/30/2012 6:08:33 AM)

Whilst his progress in the middle and south has been impressive, in the north he's been rather anemic, which may pay dividends latter on. I'd expect his panzers to dash to cut off the Dnepr in the south and I'd advise you to start fortifying Moscow as best you can now, since that seems like the primary goal.



Balou -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/30/2012 2:04:46 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas

Yeah, but I am afraid it is costing me too much. And it is only turn 4!


You mind posting a losses and OOB screen ?



timmyab -> RE: The Great Patriotic AAR II (No Michael T please) (5/30/2012 3:24:47 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: notenome

Whilst his progress in the middle and south has been impressive, in the north he's been rather anemic, which may pay dividends latter on. I'd expect his panzers to dash to cut off the Dnepr in the south and I'd advise you to start fortifying Moscow as best you can now, since that seems like the primary goal.

Yes, looks like Leningrad is being side showed here.A strategy that I think more Axis players should use.There's not enough up there to warrant a panzer army fighting axle deep through the swamps.Once they get there all the industry is gone anyway.
I'd do it slightly differently to MT,(assuming this is his plan), by sending 4th panzer group to take Pskov as usual, so drawing off Soviet reinforcements from the center and giving 18th and 16th armies a head start.Then swap 4th pz group to the center, probably around turn four.They can either speed up the capture of Moscow or head South East to cooperate with AGS, probably the latter.



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