RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks

RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (Full Version)

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Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/16/2012 1:23:24 PM)
First page of Allied ship losses: New Year's Eve [image]local://upfiles/31387/B6A2B29727734E52A956B1B0856B67C7.jpg[/image]

BBfanboy -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/16/2012 3:54:29 PM)
For December/41, those ship losses look expected and acceptable - all except Minnesotan, of course.[:(]

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/16/2012 4:09:59 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: BBfanboy For December/41, those ship losses look expected and acceptable - all except Minnesotan, of course.[:(] Have you ever seen steam come out a moose's ears?[:'(] I'm very happy on the scope of them, actually. PH was very, very light. Manila bombing could have been a lot worse on the subs. I regret losing Boise extremely, but overall not too bad for the worst month of the Allied war, now about to close. I'm looking forward to 1942, and I've never said that playing the AI. I just got done re-naming all the "IIs" in the building queue. Had some fun with old girlfriend names, etc. But some awesome CV re-naming as well. And readers of "Run Silent, Run Deep" will recognize some of the boats' names.

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/17/2012 5:30:53 PM)
December 31, 1941 The End Of The Beginning The worst month comes to an end, and finds the Allies alive, kicking, and somewhat surprised in several ways. First, the moves around Hawaii. Still unsure, which may be the point. Second, no hard run at either the PI or Singers. Each is coming, but I have had far more time to prepare than I thought would happen. Third, a strategy for China which may not "work", but ought to surpise and perhaps lead to downstream tangents. And last, that I have managed to figure out several file fiddling hassles, keep to a daily AAR, and not lose any carriers. Small favors. 1) My xAKL evac strategy from Palembang takes another hit as I lose a second one (xAKL Shinai) to the same lurking sub's gunfire. It is out of ammo now, and I have sent a couple of precious ASW ships across the top of Java from Soerbaja to cleanse the area, but I think I may have to try the northern route for evac. That lab rat has been left alone. Right now there's not that much reason for him to have search sectors devoted to the Malacca Strait. 2) Over 120 bombers hit Bataan in three waves and do more supply damge than I like. Not much I can do. 3 Bettys damaged, 1 Sally. 3) I'm fairly sure he now sees the wholesale evac of China. Air attacks shift back onto the roads in large numbers, with light losses to China. I'm almost done with the railroads in China now, and I am slipping some units out of some of the bastion cities, especially Sian. The one city he keeps pounding, Chengchow, is the last one holding the railroad closed for him, so I"m keeping it for now. I may lose the defenders, but him telling me so clearly he wants it is reason enough to keep it. To the NE of Sian, especially in the mountains, there are a number of units strung out along the roads, and to the north the Tarun Basin defenders are making painfuly slow progress south. Some of these may be left behind to fend for themselves. Sian will not hold long with what's left there. Changsha so far is a rock, has 16k supplies, and an open back door on good roads. If he tries to encirlce it I have some thinking to do. To the NW the flow toward the Burma border is steady and unmolested. 4) The Buffalo pilots at Singers are shaping up to be the story of the first month. They have taken more aircraft losses than any other model on either side, but they continue to get about 15-20 crates in the air daily, and are taking a steady toll on the raids targetting the air field. This turn I had five Forts under repair as their parent units rest in Batavia, but the bombers didn't hit them. Weather in hex: Light cloud Raid detected at 37 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 10 minutes Japanese aircraft Ki-21-IIa Sally x 25 Ki-43-Ib Oscar x 32 Allied aircraft Buffalo I x 14 Japanese aircraft losses Ki-21-IIa Sally: 1 destroyed, 8 damaged Ki-21-IIa Sally: 1 destroyed by flak Allied aircraft losses Buffalo I: 1 destroyed Airbase hits 10 Runway hits 13 ---------------------------- Morning Air attack on Singapore , at 50,84 Weather in hex: Light cloud Raid detected at 36 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 10 minutes Japanese aircraft Ki-21-IIa Sally x 29 Allied aircraft Buffalo I x 5 Japanese aircraft losses Ki-21-IIa Sally: 2 destroyed, 3 damaged No Allied losses Airbase hits 8 Runway hits 13 5) The plucky Dutch air force give the Allies a New Year's Eve party at Tarakan. The nearly useless 139-WH-3s, which have been on naval attack or naval training all month, fly from Balikpapan against the oil fields with three whole planes and no confidence, and do 3 Oil points damage with only three bombs. Good show!! Afternoon Air attack on Tarakan , at 67,91 Weather in hex: Clear sky Raid spotted at 45 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 17 minutes Allied aircraft 139WH-3 x 3 No Allied losses Oil hits 3 Aircraft Attacking: 3 x 139WH-3 bombing from 5000 feet City Attack: 3 x 300 kg GP Bomb 6) Allies land bombard at Palmyra. No Japanese attack. I detail the two subs guarding the port to move forward and astride the approach route for any incoming relief TF. I also fuel and arm DD Crosby at Hilo and send her back to monitor the island. I have no air search available, so my first clue may be a TF unloading. The one I saw east of Wotje yesterday, if aimed here, should be 3-4 days away. 7) Japan takes vacant Madang on NG. Intel says there is an engineer unit along, 4/35th JNAF AF Unit. A moose in a funny New Year's hat, YouTube gold. [:'(]

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/18/2012 12:05:53 AM)
January 1, 1942 Japan: No Hangover A new year, the Year of Decision I announced to my esteemed opponent. He sent the movie back with a note that the 365-episode series will have portions not suitable for children. Indeed. Today the Allies get a few DD upgrades underway, and a couple of new plane models swing into production, in particular the early Trop Hurricane II. I really need the help, but it'll be awhile. I should have Calcutta available as an upgrade base "pretty soon now." 1) Abandoned Kanhsein is taken as its former defenders strive to reach the railhead to the east. They are the last Chinese in the southern half of the country and the last users of this segment of rails. He doesn't want to let them go as he pounds them in several stiff road march strikes. He may also have something coming from the west I can't see, so the choo-choo may be out the window. 2) Fifteen minutes of ASW replays later and he's shot at a bunch of DDs and I've dropped a lot of DCs and a lot of fish are dead or deaf. Holding the subs so close to PH is, in my opinion, SUB-optimal. I would use a lot of fuel, system damage, and time to go find them closer to the WC. Every turn I have hard d/ls on about six of them. If I had ASW upgrades they'd be toast. As it is it's a standoff. 3) I night bomb Madang AF with a couple of untrained Hudsons out of PM. Just to let him know I can. Nothing is hit but trees and vines. 4) The enemy bombers turn their attention to Sian with several brutal attacks. I need to watch this one carefully. The bail-out may be sooner than I have thought. The Sallys are at 10k, so it may have been a probe too. I have three Chinese biplane fighters there. One gets aloft; he goes up and throws rice balls. Chengchow is hit by Anns for no damage on either side. Changsha as well for some supply damage and one dinged Sally. 5) I shuttle a unit of Blenheims up to Balikpapan to help on Tarakan's oil fields. I don't expect them to fly same-turn, but they grab a box lunch and go along with the Dutch Boys. 4 more Oil hits. If this accelerates a landing at Balikpapan it won't be terrible. It's heavily mined and they aren't getting any younger. 6) Bataan is hit by the now normal 75 bombers. More supply burns. Bettys, Lilys, and Sallys, oh my! 7) The time has come at Temuloh. The FMSV Brigade and the base force want one day to strat load, while the Indian infantry wants three, so the infantry takes position to hold a day and see what's up. The FMSV is "helpfully" bombed while palletizing their gear. Even though I'm bleeding here this is an interesting evolution I've never come close to needing versus the AI. It may melt all over the jungle, but if it works it'll be pretty neat. 8) Pegu. Ah, Mr. Pegu. I've had a small group of weak Burmese units there holding the port as I slipped in ships Rangoon was too full for or which couldn't fit up-river. I never intended to hold it. I know some do, as it can buy turns for Rangoon, but I decided to put the guns behind Rangoon's walls and rest them as much as the bombing will allow. I've snuck a fair list into Rangoon and they're well-supplied. He has one marauding tank unit (14th Tank Reg.) up north by itself, taking Moulmein and racing for Pegu. It has to be tired. I split the Chinese evacced bombers into three recon units and have been reconning the three open hexes due east of Pegu to see if he has a second punch in check. I have no indication there's more than the tanks. So . . . The Japanese pound Pegu with a softeneing-up air strike. Afternoon Air attack on 108th RAF Base Force, at 55,53 (Pegu) Weather in hex: Thunderstorms Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 5 minutes Japanese aircraft Ki-21-IIa Sally x 15 Japanese aircraft losses Ki-21-IIa Sally: 4 damaged Allied ground losses: 139 casualties reported Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled Non Combat: 14 destroyed, 5 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled Then the shock attack with the tanks. Ground combat at Pegu (55,53) Japanese Shock attack Attacking force 525 troops, 0 guns, 80 vehicles, Assault Value = 46 Defending force 1059 troops, 2 guns, 1 vehicles, Assault Value = 34 Japanese adjusted assault: 7 Allied adjusted defense: 2 Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 0) Japanese forces CAPTURE Pegu !!! Combat modifiers Defender: preparation(-), morale(-), experience(-) Attacker: shock(+), leaders(-), fatigue(-) Allied ground losses: 724 casualties reported Squads: 35 destroyed, 5 disabled Non Combat: 30 destroyed, 7 disabled Engineers: 5 destroyed, 0 disabled Guns lost 2 (2 destroyed, 0 disabled) Vehicles lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled) Units retreated 4 Defeated Allied Units Retreating! Assaulting units: 14th Tank Regiment Defending units: Tenasserim BAF Battalion 4th Burma Rifles Battalion 6th Burma Rifles Battalion 108th RAF Base Force So. What to do, what to do? I noted that (-) on Fatigue as well as Leaders. The tanks are alone. I will study the anti-tank ratings of the units in Rangoon, make sure I understand where the river is, and make a call. It would be nice to maul armor this far forward of his supply lines. We shall see. Perhaps the Chinese bombers can help as well. But Pegu is gone for now. Things just got more real up in there. 9) Passed quickly in the movie, but I got two air search hits by Kates on a sub in the broad open water about twelve hexes SW of Johnson I. This could be on a vector for Palmyra. I haven't seen the KB in weeks, and as far as I know he doesn't know my four carriers are all at San Diego. Perhaps the carrier(s) are escorting a bombardmant group to take out my plucky defenders. We will see. For now I'm leaving DD Crosby on course for Palmyra. And one of the two subs I moved last turn is an S-boat with working torps. On Palmyra itself the two forces exchange bombardments. 10) No hits on my xAKLs out of Palembang this turn, and one is out in the IO. I didn't send any more, but maybe the survivors will make Cocos. Force Z is thirsty.

Chickenboy -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/18/2012 12:54:41 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58 What to do, what to do? I noted that (-) on Fatigue as well as Leaders. The tanks are alone. I will study the anti-tank ratings of the units in Rangoon, make sure I understand where the river is, and make a call. You leave them and you hit the road is what. Early war Burmese infantry are the worst infantry in the game. Full stop. They will not avail you a worthwhile counterstrike. Get 'em out, get 'em supplied and replenished. Rangoon is a deathtrap. The worst place to make any meaningful defensive stand in theatre. Get 'em out.

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/18/2012 2:49:38 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Chickenboy quote: ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58 What to do, what to do? I noted that (-) on Fatigue as well as Leaders. The tanks are alone. I will study the anti-tank ratings of the units in Rangoon, make sure I understand where the river is, and make a call. You leave them and you hit the road is what. Early war Burmese infantry are the worst infantry in the game. Full stop. They will not avail you a worthwhile counterstrike. Get 'em out, get 'em supplied and replenished. Rangoon is a deathtrap. The worst place to make any meaningful defensive stand in theatre. Get 'em out. What's in Rangoon isn't all Burnese though. There's also an HQ and two British base forces. [image]local://upfiles/31387/8614A5B9146741E48DAB101B07293AEC.jpg[/image]

Encircled -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/18/2012 10:55:20 AM)
The 17th Indian might be ok, the rest haven't got any A/T weapons to speak of. You need to abandon Rangoon btw, the AI can cut me off in its sleep there, so you can guarantee a human player will be able to do it even easier.

GreyJoy -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/18/2012 12:43:17 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Chickenboy quote: ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58 What to do, what to do? I noted that (-) on Fatigue as well as Leaders. The tanks are alone. I will study the anti-tank ratings of the units in Rangoon, make sure I understand where the river is, and make a call. You leave them and you hit the road is what. Early war Burmese infantry are the worst infantry in the game. Full stop. They will not avail you a worthwhile counterstrike. Get 'em out, get 'em supplied and replenished. Rangoon is a deathtrap. The worst place to make any meaningful defensive stand in theatre. Get 'em out. + 1. Rangoon can't be defended. If you try to hold the rivercrossing at Moulmein (which is a good defensive position), he will outflank you, landing at Pego or at Rangoon directly...and once he's at Rangoon, the road system will let his tanks to advance much faster than your battered troops and you'll get simply destroyed. Save those units. Bring them to India, rest and refit them and use them when they'll be able to do something. my 0,00002 cents

Chickenboy -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/18/2012 2:59:53 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58 What's in Rangoon isn't all Burnese though. There's also an HQ and two British base forces. Ah. So you'll also have a HQ and two British base forces liquidated in situ with the Burmese? Won't make any difference. Get 'em out.

Crackaces -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/18/2012 3:18:05 PM)
As a AFB I love an agressive IJ player to pursue my retreating troops. Then take forces from Kaylemo and cut underneath the pursuing IJA .. Once Allied forces are in the Irrawaddy Valley between the IJA 15th Army and Rangoon these forces are doomed. If the IJ ignores this threat a catestrophe will result. If the IJ attends to the threat the offense will break down. I have a diagram/map in the War Room and a seperate AAR (N=2) of what happends with the former IJ reaction. All of Southeast Asia as a colony of the King.

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/18/2012 4:36:13 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Chickenboy quote: ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58 What's in Rangoon isn't all Burnese though. There's also an HQ and two British base forces. Ah. So you'll also have a HQ and two British base forces liquidated in situ with the Burmese? Won't make any difference. Get 'em out. Well, my decision today--literally, a turn in the box early Sunday morning--is whether to attack this one tank unit. But it sounds from the weight of votes I need to really look at the map. One thing I don't have a good read on yet is how having the entire Chinese army available in Burma in 1942 might change things. As far as Rangoon goes, unless he does an amazing feat of sealift there's nothing close at all except this one tank unit, right now. He would have to come east of Java and swing far, far out in the IO to get there. I have the channel at Oosthaven fully visible, and he hasn't tried to come near Singers at all, let alone go up the strait. What he eventualy details to Burma is still a mystery. But I'm listening to you guys.

Chickenboy -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/18/2012 5:50:22 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Crackaces As a AFB I love an agressive IJ player to pursue my retreating troops. Then take forces from Kaylemo and cut underneath the pursuing IJA .. Once Allied forces are in the Irrawaddy Valley between the IJA 15th Army and Rangoon these forces are doomed. If the IJ ignores this threat a catestrophe will result. If the IJ attends to the threat the offense will break down. I have a diagram/map in the War Room and a seperate AAR (N=2) of what happends with the former IJ reaction. All of Southeast Asia as a colony of the King. Link?

Encircled -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/18/2012 6:32:01 PM)
You can do that in early '42? Not with the forces you start with in Burma You'd have reinforce with the 7th Armd Bde, and probably the Austrailian and the British Division that arrives, and if you don't get it right, then both India and or Australia are wide open as you need those troops in to defend them IMHO of course! And of course you will need lots of air cover, and the pools just won't support it. Unless you are advocating making a stand at Shewbo, which is perfectly possible with air support and supply!

Crackaces -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/18/2012 7:33:28 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Encircled You can do that in early '42? Not with the forces you start with in Burma You'd have reinforce with the 7th Armd Bde, and probably the Austrailian and the British Division that arrives, and if you don't get it right, then both India and or Australia are wide open as you need those troops in to defend them IMHO of course! And of course you will need lots of air cover, and the pools just won't support it. Unless you are advocating making a stand at Shewbo, which is perfectly possible with air support and supply! Please see posting number 9 http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3200268 Please see posting number 1150 http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=2874485&mpage=39&key= Both of these IJ Disaters were because I comitted to a Burma Strategy and the IJ did not comit to Kaylemo, Wazzup and decided to defend the Irrawaddy Valley ... Actually .. the Brits retreated toward China in both cases making a zero stand pulling the IJ away from teh Irrawaddy Valley ... and the AUS I Corps obliged to cut underneath into the Irrawaddy Valley .. It might be impossible .. but in two PBEM games this was accomplsihed .. maybe because my opponents thought is was impossible ..[;)] Once in the Irrawaddy Valley the IJ are in deep trouble. Get the Armor into the open plains and the IJ are in deeper trouble .. parachute into empty bases and rail troops forward and its Katy bar the door ... Right now my latest PBEM I am looking at Hong Kong in June 1943 ..

Encircled -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/18/2012 8:08:02 PM)
Cheers for the links! I'll have a gander at the start of them to see what you did in early '42 Judging by your posts, I'm assuming that it was major Japanese strategic mistakes that cost them, and if they had successfully worked out what you were doing, you'd have struggled to pull it off? I'm reckoning on holding Rangoon till the IJA show up in Moulmein, then pulling back to Shewbo and Akyab to try to hold on to parts of Burma. Of course there is the danger of a naval invaison, but if the IJA commits to India, then that isn't the worse place in the world for the Allies to fight them

Crackaces -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/19/2012 1:50:37 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Encircled Cheers for the links! I'll have a gander at the start of them to see what you did in early '42 Judging by your posts, I'm assuming that it was major Japanese strategic mistakes that cost them, and if they had successfully worked out what you were doing, you'd have struggled to pull it off? I'm reckoning on holding Rangoon till the IJA show up in Moulmein, then pulling back to Shewbo and Akyab to try to hold on to parts of Burma. Of course there is the danger of a naval invaison, but if the IJA commits to India, then that isn't the worse place in the world for the Allies to fight them The IJ in both games made the fatal mistake of not forcing the offense toward Kalemyo/Imphal and instead pursued the issue northward, which I obliged with zest. Then a countermove from Kayelmyo to seal the IJ's fate .. In my opinion, the Allies in Scenario #1 and R.A should work on establsihing a defense that stretches from Akayb, Kalemyo, Warazup line first . Kalemyo is key because it can store supplies near the Irrawaddy Valley.. To do this, as NY59Giants and CRsutton explained to me, USN Seabees have to be shipped to India early and often. But once BF's and SeaBees are working on these sites the jumpoff point has been established and "Operation Extended Captial" gets kicked off two years early .. If the IJ get wise they simply parlay and prevent the impending disater. A stalemate looks a heck of lot better than the results of those two links [;)] In my case, the IJ obliged by taking units and invading Port Moesby and Northern Oz. I could ask for no better reaction because .. "So What??" It takes take planning because as has been pointed out the forces in India are not enough. AUS I corps and a lot of US engineers .. 1 US division ... but once it kicks off the IJ are in deep trouble if they do not find a defensive line in the jungle .. a temptation for the Allies for sure to take the battle in early '42 to the Irrawaddy Valley rather than the historical Mountbatten's foray into Akyab ...[8D] I await what the moose does.. [sm=00000613.gif]

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/19/2012 8:12:35 PM)
Well. Monday PM and a lot of thinking done. The last series of posts sent me off Sunday afternoon doing a lot of poking and looking up of various things, then the turn, then some ugly surprises in the movie. I wanted to discuss a bit and not hork up the diary. I have another turn in hand, which may be the last for a bit. Mike and I have family commitments over Thanksgiving. Both Crackaces and Chickenboy's posts made me pull out of the daily minutae a bit and reflect. We're nearly a month into the game. I've been happy in some ways, surprised in others, and shocked in still others. I think self-awareness is a good thing, and as I read back here a few days I see, when I pull back from the posts, attitudes and phrases which make me seem a bit arrogant and haughty. Truly I have been a little surprised at the pace of events. But I want to say very clearly here, before the scales tip too far in the coming months, that I do not really feel in control of events, or confident I have the skills to play the land portion of this game well, or even in a mediocre fashion. Crackaces' posts left me bewildered that such a mega-strategy could have been formed so early and carried out so well so fast. The land game to me is a black box, for, you see, I am a sailor at heart. I think most AE players come to it having spent years playing hex-based wargames. I didn't. I've played PC strategy games back to the early 1980s, but usually economic or sci-fi and not often with hexes. My professional training and inclination is all naval. I'm not a soldier. At sea there is no terrain, flanking movements don't work longer than a few minutes. Naval warfare is all about forming a team (like a huge, complex AFV) at the division, department, ship, squadron, TF, and fleet levels and drilling and driling and drilling. It's about sensors and search, because historically and today whomever shoots first almost always wins. Defense is very difficult at sea, where the very enviroment is also trying to kill you as much as the enemy is. Damage control is important, and commodity management. Speed, distance, and fuel are the coin of the relam, not contour maps and river defenses. I think I can handle subs as well as anybody who plays the game. I understand ship repair very well. But the land war I find very difficult. Until Chickenboy grabbed my head I wasn't really thinking about railroads and WHY he used that tank unit as he did. I see him doing the same thing near Sian now, aided by some helpful intel. I have consistently over-estimated the power of forts when playing a human, and how fast units can move when they aren't just stacked and pushed. He has moved shockingly quickly on some routes in China, and I've had to re-plan the withdrawl nearly every turn because of it. And that's just the tactical. I have no idea what I'll do in Asia right now. No master plan other than RUN!!! I think I've had hubris lead me to a pounding at Singers sooner than I thought would happen, and by over-investing there I think I've also guaranteed my Palembang defense will be under-endowed. Right now I would give my odds of winning the game as at best 60:40. If he lands on Hawaii and takes Pearl I'd say 20%. Anyway. I just wanted to say to the readers that no matter how confident I seem I'm not. I know things get better, but playing the AI I could look forward to that being in three weeks real time. Here it's six months or more. And even then auto-vic is always on the doorstep.

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/19/2012 8:55:59 PM)
January 2, 1942 Caught As above, today was a day when some of the realities of land warfare came home to roost on my head. Thanks to Chickenboy's urging I took a much closer look at my device fills and the internals of some of his OOB, especially what's in an IJA tank regiment. As a result I chucked or began chucking some attempted moves I've built around the past three weeks and accelerated the retreat in a few areas, but without a good medium- let alone long-term plan. 1) At Temuloh I had the FMSV Brigade (remnants), a base force, and the 8th Indian Brigade reach the railhead together last turn. 8th Indian is the last piece of 9th Indian Division I need at Singers in order to re-combine. The strat loading estimate for the base force and the FMSV were one day, and three for the infantry. I ordered the two shorties to strat load and left the Indians on Combat. When the turn runs the base force is gone, but the FMSV still wants another day. Hit by a tank regiment, they are crushed, fall back, and Temuloh falls. The only silver lining is he had positioned another unit due west of Temuloh on the rail line, so the retreat is helpful, all the way to KL. I may have time to strat load the pieces and parts there. Ground combat at Temuloh (50,78) Japanese Shock attack Attacking force 645 troops, 0 guns, 101 vehicles, Assault Value = 59 Defending force 1453 troops, 9 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 24 Japanese adjusted assault: 40 Allied adjusted defense: 16 Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 0) Japanese forces CAPTURE Temuloh !!! Combat modifiers Defender: terrain(+), op mode(-), preparation(-), fatigue(-) morale(-), experience(-) Attacker: shock(+), leaders(+), leaders(-) Allied ground losses: 556 casualties reported Squads: 27 destroyed, 0 disabled Non Combat: 33 destroyed, 0 disabled Engineers: 12 destroyed, 0 disabled Guns lost 3 (2 destroyed, 1 disabled) Units retreated 2 Defeated Allied Units Retreating! Assaulting units: 2nd Tank Regiment Defending units: FMSV Brigade 8th Indian Brigade 2) I get intel of an infantry regiment prepping for Mersing, and "much radio traffic" at Cam Rahn Bay. Mersing is empty but for 70 mines. I have one excellent Aussie unit at JB still. I think I will pull it back to Singers and be done. JB has Forts 2, but I'd rather the Aussies fight from Singers with full support and supplies than take their chances as a speed-bump. I've also gotten notice of about six regiments prepping for Singers, but no full divisions. Maybe they're combinable, or maybe the divisions just haven't been read. 3) Rangoon. With a tank regiment sitting at Pegu I look at my AT weapons in the defenders. Small amounts in two LCUs, but the time to move forward to Pegu would be a minimum of three days and I really have no idea what's down the tracks unseen. I would do some damage, but I'd also rack my attackers, and they'd still be three days forward. So with Chickenboy's words in mind I bite my lip and start moving the base forces, HQ, and Gloucestershire Battallion to strat mode, destination Magwe by way of Prome. I only have a Burmese speed-bump plus an RAF base force at Toungoo, and those tanks could easily turn that way to take a deep railhead and leave Rangoon for the infantry. I have no idea if Magwe is optimal, but that's where I picked. After they are away I'll pack the rest and follow them. I did bomb the tanks with the Chinese bombers at Magwe, which might have done a smidge of disruption. Of course he helpfuly bombed my strat packing operation, and did a lot more than a smidge. Morning Air attack on 107th RAF Base Force, at 54,53 (Rangoon) Weather in hex: Clear sky Raid spotted at 18 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 5 minutes Japanese aircraft Ki-21-IIa Sally x 27 Japanese aircraft losses Ki-21-IIa Sally: 11 damaged Ki-21-IIa Sally: 1 destroyed by flak Allied ground losses: 166 casualties reported Squads: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 9 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled Aircraft Attacking: 27 x Ki-21-IIa Sally bombing from 6000 feet Ground Attack: 4 x 250 kg GP Bomb Also attacking 17th Indian Division ... Also attacking 107th RAF Base Force ... Also attacking 17th Indian Division ... Also attacking 107th RAF Base Force ... 4) China. Argh. Too complex to cover it all, but he is using fast tanks to do the same sort of cut off near Sian at 84,81. He has to cross the river to cut the road. I don't need this RR any more since I've also started to abandon Chengchow to the west and Nanyang, but I still detail my highest AV infantry division to move south to west of the river. It might not be in time. I want to keep Sian long enough to collect some of the stragglers to the east and north, but I"m seeing more stacks of 3-4 instead of 1-2. I get intel that two big infantry divisions are at Anyang, a dot base, and there are 18,000 troops at Loyang. I didn't want to give up Chengchow as this will give him the railroad all the way to the end down south, but I also have a lot of good troops at Chengchow which will shatter in a retreat from combat. If I can pull back to Nanyang and buy a week or so the situation elsewhere will be far better. The defense line will still be semi-intact, but Sian is looking more and more exposed to me. A partial picture: [image]local://upfiles/31387/6093A5F31A42483D86479DAF37138D0A.jpg[/image] 5) Near Pearl, he shoves a submarine each into Hilo and Lahaina, both mined. I have a 2-tanker TF unloading at Hilo, but there is no damage. Farther out, on the road to Palmyra, there's definitely at least one carrier coming as Vals make ASW attacks on USS Perch. Intel gives activity alerts at Wotje. I also get a note that a 3-ship TF has left Truk moving NE. Could be to hit Wake, or maybe see about Midway. 6) 120 bomber day at Bataan. Singers gets fewer, and chews them up a bit. Bufaloes get 17 up today. Japanese aircraft losses Ki-21-IIa Sally: 1 destroyed, 5 damaged Ki-43-Ib Oscar: 1 destroyed Allied aircraft losses Buffalo I: 1 destroyed Airbase hits 1 Airbase supply hits 1 Runway hits 11 7) Some good news at Tarakan as both bomber units fly together. That's a lot of supply he'll have devote to repairs at some point. Still no CAP. The B-17s at Batavia continue to rest and repair. Morning Air attack on Tarakan , at 67,91 Weather in hex: Clear sky Raid spotted at 44 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 16 minutes Allied aircraft Blenheim I x 7 139WH-3 x 6 No Allied losses Oil hits 21 Aircraft Attacking: 6 x 139WH-3 bombing from 5000 feet City Attack: 3 x 300 kg GP Bomb 7 x Blenheim I bombing from 5000 feet City Attack: 4 x 250 lb GP Bomb 8) Sweeps at Palembang chew up the weak Dutch fighter models. They won't last long. 9) At Palmyra the Allies gamble that the Naval Guards are disrupted and attack before the relief force arrives. If they can be wiped out the Japanese will need to do a full landing evolution instead of coming ashore more peacefully. Not great, but the Japanese are for sure hanging on by their toenails. Ground combat at Palmyra (170,133) Allied Deliberate attack Attacking force 298 troops, 12 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 12 Defending force 1094 troops, 12 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 25 Allied adjusted assault: 3 Japanese adjusted defense: 9 Allied assault odds: 1 to 3 Combat modifiers Defender: preparation(-) Attacker: Japanese ground losses: 256 casualties reported Squads: 10 destroyed, 12 disabled Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled Allied ground losses: 47 casualties reported Squads: 1 destroyed, 8 disabled Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

BBfanboy -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/19/2012 10:27:57 PM)
+ 1 on wanting to play more of the naval game and not get bogged down in a land war in Asia. The history books warn us about that! And NO - you do not come across as arrogant or overconfident in your posts. I see the kind of optimism that helps good leaders pull off good results in a miserable situation. Lower your antlers and go to it! [sm=00000612.gif] As for the lack of endowment problem you mentioned, the TV says there are medicines and appliances that can help with that! I hear your inventory contains something called a "Long Tom"... [;)]

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/20/2012 1:15:04 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: BBfanboy + 1 on wanting to play more of the naval game and not get bogged down in a land war in Asia. The history books warn us about that! And NO - you do not come across as arrogant or overconfident in your posts. I see the kind of optimism that helps good leaders pull off good results in a miserable situation. Lower your antlers and go to it! [sm=00000612.gif] As for the lack of endowment problem you mentioned, the TV says there are medicines and appliances that can help with that! I hear your inventory contains something called a "Long Tom"... [;)] Thanks for the good words. [:)] Not to whine (OK, some) Asia would be so much easier if the interface on the map were kinder to old guys with thick glasses. This is one area WitE did it much better, a generation ahead. As well being able to zoom the map with the mouse wheel! The tiny squares and the much tinier direction dots get old when you're playing in a higher-res. I do not have a handle on movement costs/times for the various land types and terrain mixes. I usually just guesstimate, and lately I've underguessed by a lot. He seems to be able to run while my guys are smelling flowers along the way. Under-endowed . . . PalemBANG! Make your own joke . . . [:'(]

witpqs -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/20/2012 2:50:22 AM)
My secret weapon for dealing with the ultra-tiny direction arrows is a magnifying glass! 3.5x Worth it's weight in gold.

Crackaces -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/20/2012 3:47:10 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58 [ I do not have a handle on movement costs/times for the various land types and terrain mixes. I usually just guesstimate, and lately I've underguessed by a lot. He seems to be able to run while my guys are smelling flowers along the way. One thing about ground bombing -- the unit in question will go into 'combat' mode if in move mode, which is 1/2 of the movement I believe. Simply getting bombs on the unit causes the change -- no casulties needed .. It is a nice way to slow an advance, or slow down prey so forces can surround and cut off their quarry ... Also I think the IJ get a jungle movement bonus which allows for a very rapid advance in Mayla and Burma ...

BBfanboy -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/20/2012 3:53:27 AM)
Someone mentioned that LCU movement is influenced by morale. The low Chinese morale, and lack of any transport at all, add up to slower movement than any other LCUs. However, if you are in the mountains or a swamp, the Chinese can keep pace with the Japanese! [sm=character0077.gif]

erstad -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/20/2012 6:38:08 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: BBfanboy Someone mentioned that LCU movement is influenced by morale. The low Chinese morale, and lack of any transport at all, add up to slower movement than any other LCUs. However, if you are in the mountains or a swamp, the Chinese can keep pace with the Japanese! [sm=character0077.gif] Don't think this is correct. Fatigue will directly influence movement, but I don't think morale.

BBfanboy -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/20/2012 7:01:10 AM)
You are probably right erstad. My recall is not as good as it once was and since fatigue and morale are reported practically together on the unit info screen, I could have transposed the movement effect from one to the other. Not that it matters much in the case of the Chinese early in the game when fatigue is high and morale is low!

Crackaces -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/20/2012 1:48:09 PM)
quote: Right now I would give my odds of winning the game as at best 60:40. If he lands on Hawaii and takes Pearl I'd say 20%. I might suggest that everytime you get discouraged .. take a look at Greyjoy vs. Radier AAR. Here Radier consumes India, & China ..to only have GreyJoy in 1944 land on Hokkaido ... AndyMac vs. PzB .. PzB takes PH .. no problem 1944 the tide turns .... BigRed vs. FatR same thing .. all scenario #2 ... The closest AV I have read about was PJH vs. CanoeRebel, and PJH made a huge execution mistake that you pointed out very early .... anyway the game stopped .. In my opiniion, The big problem with AutoVictory for the IJ/Allies is the Denominator problem. IJ points/Allied Points > 4 by Jan 1943. Every increase of 1 Allied point increases the requirement of the IJ by 4 points. Of course the opposite is true. Every allied point lost reduces the requirement by 4 points. Very careful management of this problem [or simple luck [;)] ] gets the Allied side past this point. Like typically teh IJ lose 2:1 or 3:1 aircraft over the Allies .. do the math ...[;)] There are some point dense areas to exploit and it will be interesting to see how your opponent manages their strategy.

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/20/2012 2:01:48 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: witpqs My secret weapon for dealing with the ultra-tiny direction arrows is a magnifying glass! 3.5x Worth it's weight in gold. I saw you recco that a few weeks ago in another thread. I think Girl of the P. might have one somewhere in the house. I'll ask her.

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/20/2012 2:05:51 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Crackaces quote: ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58 [ I do not have a handle on movement costs/times for the various land types and terrain mixes. I usually just guesstimate, and lately I've underguessed by a lot. He seems to be able to run while my guys are smelling flowers along the way. One thing about ground bombing -- the unit in question will go into 'combat' mode if in move mode, which is 1/2 of the movement I believe. Simply getting bombs on the unit causes the change -- no casulties needed .. It is a nice way to slow an advance, or slow down prey so forces can surround and cut off their quarry ... Also I think the IJ get a jungle movement bonus which allows for a very rapid advance in Mayla and Burma ... He has done this scores of times in China already. I did know that rule, but what I never noticed playing the AI is if the lead LCU in a stack goes to Combat, and the others are still in Move, well, guess what? The whole train slows down. The code seems to always pick the follow-me LCU to shift to Combat. I am adapting by not using stack movement and Move in combo in eastern areas of the China map.. I"m sending each LCU as an individual to the same destination. Tedious, but I think it helps in the macro. It's also beginning to help that many more of the big stacks are west of his bomber ranges.

Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (11/20/2012 2:07:50 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: BBfanboy You are probably right erstad. My recall is not as good as it once was and since fatigue and morale are reported practically together on the unit info screen, I could have transposed the movement effect from one to the other. Not that it matters much in the case of the Chinese early in the game when fatigue is high and morale is low! A lot of my retreating road-Chinese are in the teens or single digits on supply too, all in the deep red. I don't know if that slows them down, but it doesn't help the other stats.

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