Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks (2/19/2013 3:54:28 PM)
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March 12, 1942 Payback Is a Beast Interesting turn with more experiments, some e-mails back and forth, and an expedition that worked out OK. Mostly. 1) Makassar Strait. Lost a Dutch sub yesterday and had another one pounded upon. Japan has at least three ASW groups in the strait every day now. From what I've seen they are typically 2-ships, either both DDs or a DD and smaller, and one is always in the shallow water at the channel mouth to Balikipapan. This is all sub intel; I don't have air search up that far. What few RAF and Dutch patrol planes I have left are at Palembang and Batavia helping keep Singers open. This turn alone I collect: ASW attack near Bandjermasin at 62,101 Japanese Ships DD Yamakaze Allied Ships SS Saury AND ASW attack near Balikpapan at 64,98 Japanese Ships DD Amatsukaze DD Hagikaze Allied Ships SS S-36 AND ASW attack near Donggala at 68,97 Japanese Ships DD Tokitsukaze DD Hatsuyuki Allied Ships SS KXVI This suggests the Oil bite is starting to hurt, and he really wants to sanitize the strait and get tankers rolling from Balikpapan. As long as I have Soerbaja I'm going to try to stop that. The CL Marblehead TF sent out yesterday into the Strait at Full speed RTBed with no attacks, so I send it out again at Mission speed and React=4, targetted on the spot the sub was lost. It gets an intercept this time: Day Time Surface Combat, near Balikpapan at 63,99, Range 14,000 Yards Japanese Ships DD Nokaze, Shell hits 14, and is sunk TB Chidori, Shell hits 10, heavy fires, heavy damage (sunk later per sound effect) Allied Ships CL Marblehead DD Paul Jones DD Van Ghent, Shell hits 1 DD Electra, Shell hits 1, on fire DD Encounter, Shell hits 1 The Allies get away, but are attacked by a strong, escorted Betty strike on the way home. Marblehead takes one torpedo but keeps on going. Her planes divert to southern Borneo. 2) I play more altitude games at Palembang and Djambi "just to see." The Hurricanes' maneuver bands want them lower, but I put them up at 27,000 with the one P-38 I have, and they do OK. Morning Air attack on Palembang , at 48,91 Weather in hex: Heavy rain Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 7 minutes Japanese aircraft A6M2 Zero x 9 G3M2 Nell x 14 G4M1 Betty x 14 Allied aircraft Hurricane IIb Trop x 5 P-38E Lightning x 1 Japanese aircraft losses G3M2 Nell: 1 damaged G4M1 Betty: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged Morning Air attack on Palembang , at 48,91 Weather in hex: Heavy rain Raid spotted at 17 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet. Estimated time to target is 4 minutes Japanese aircraft Ki-21-IIa Sally x 12 Ki-43-Ic Oscar x 12 Allied aircraft Hurricane IIb Trop x 3 P-38E Lightning x 1 Japanese aircraft losses Ki-21-IIa Sally: 1 destroyed, 2 damaged No Allied losses After the bombing a 36-Zero sweep comes in at 30,000. The Lightning stays on the ground and one Hurricane is lost. Still, an interesting experiment. At Djambi I send the B-17s at 32,000 ft. The Zeros come up from 11,000 ft., (where they've been bouncing my 9000 ft. attacks for weeks) and handle like pigs. Three get "oil leaks" and RTB. No Forts are lost, but no hits either. I may space some of these in at places like Singkawang where the CAP is thick and go for some ops losses. B-17s like to live at 32,000. Makes them think they're on "vacation" over France. [:)] 3) In China the troop bombing continues as it has, unmentioned, every day. For the first time Japan hits Chungking in an ineffective raid. Every piece of AA China owns is at Chungking (and all the arty.) It is about 25% to Forts 8, supply is drifting down at about 31,000 now. I think the Forts are more important. There is 3940 AV in the hex, plus many HQs, arty, and base forces. 4) Singers bombing targets are varied between Ground, Port, and AF. With the movie I got an e-mail from Mike which was not jocular as his usually are. He wanted to know if I was using two MLs at Singers to sponge bombs away from the xAKs and XAPs he sees coming in with supplies. I thought about it. No HRs, play the code: check. But moreover I am doing that, but not only that. I fired up Tracker. The MLs in question have AA ratings of 36. And they're harbor defense vessels defending a harbor. They were made at Singers; I didn't send them there. Moreover, Japan has so far sunk 9 HDMLs and 2 MLs. They're low-mix assets which are designed to be used up. He replied that he was satisfied with my answer; he had thought I was using them simply as sponges. I had said they were useful shooting at his Marys strafing and skip-bombing at 100ft. He replied he was only doing that because they were there. Chicken, meet egg. I would also add that my combat reports show a high preponderance of Port attacks by Marys and Anns, not Naval missions. The MLs are in Surface TFs, not disbanded. If Japan wants them dead sustained Naval targeting will do it. (I didn't helpfully point this out, however.) I re-replied again that I was using them to divert targetting, but not only as sponges. I offered to discuss how Singers went down, for our mutual learning, once the war moves past. And I tried to give him a BIG hint by saying I thought Singers has been a classic rock-paper-scissors tactical problem for two months. IOW, to break the pattern you have to risk. Pick one of the three and employ forces which counter its strength. Subs, surface TFs, MKB--whatever, but the key to Singers is supply and forts, and LBA has not and will not stop them at this point. He has to either stop them in other ways, or bring such a land hammer that neither is enough to ensure the base's survival. The stack sitting on Luzon would be useful. To that end, this turn I got intel that parts of 38th Division were loaded at Lingayan. (Also that 4th Division is still prepping for Pearl and is at Kota Bharu, so go figure.) In opsec terms the e-mails show that he's frustrated at Singers. I'm sympathetic, but my job is to hold as long as I can. Time is an incredibly valuable resource in the game, and you can't make more. 5) UNDERDOG was re-jiggered, CV air was reset with new ranges and arcs, the landing force was ordered to go in. No probing APD. The risk of him having Mavises at Palmyra is too great to delay. Johnson Island is bare again for the second or third day. (Got sighting report of eight ships heading west from Johnson at high speed; take it for what you will.) If I have two sunk carriers in three days I'll look like an idiot. But the landing is a go. Disruption on the ships is reaching extreme levels, especially the APDs (over 55% in one case.) They were only included because I had no other ASW escorts available; I didn't want them to carry. Such is the code. Fingers crossed. I wish Sweet Polly was along. [8|]
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