RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (Full Version)

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ctangus -> RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (12/30/2012 8:52:08 PM)

3/5 - 3/13/42

The admiral and I were traveling over the holidays. Still got a few turns in but the game slowed a bit and no time for an AAR update.

South Pac

The battle on New Caledonia ended in disaster. I got some paras into La Foa to block Japanese supply and the last Japanese assault on Noumea only got 1:2. (See 2 posts up.) Forts at Noumea expanded back to 2. I thought my troops would hold through at least one more attack so I kept a bunch of air based on Noumea. However air attacks from KB and naval bombardments put a lot of hurt on my troops. On the 6th the Japanese launched a shock attack:

Ground combat at Noumea (115,160)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 10867 troops, 114 guns, 2 vehicles, Assault Value = 383

Defending force 5497 troops, 83 guns, 30 vehicles, Assault Value = 123

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 1

Japanese adjusted assault: 532

Allied adjusted defense: 88

Japanese assault odds: 6 to 1 (fort level 1)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Noumea !!!

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
F2A-3 Buffalo: 2 destroyed
SBD-2 Dauntless: 14 destroyed
PBY-5 Catalina: 7 destroyed
B-17E Fortress: 4 destroyed
B-17D Fortress: 3 destroyed
P-39D Airacobra: 6 destroyed
P-40E Warhawk: 10 destroyed


I anticipated eventually losing the ground units but losing 8 air squadrons hurts: 1 USMC fighter, 2 USMC DB, 1 USN patrol, 2 USAAF 4E, 2 USAAF fighter. OUCH!

KB has now retired. While I haven't spotted it since I spotted some of its planes. On the 11th & 12th Akagi DBs attacked troops stranded near Port Moresby and Hyosho (IIRC) DBs attacked troops stranded near Rabaul. My best guess is that KB is going to support ops against Northern Australia & Baby KB is heading towards Truk.

Northern Australia

On the 12th IJ forces invaded Broome and they took it on the 13th. The III Australian Kangaroo Korps is hastily preparing defenses.

Java

Organized resistance has ended. 3 pockets of troops remain but the IJA is gradually reducing them.

China

Still a big mess. Wenchow is the newest IJA target with support from IJN cruiser bombardments. We're holding for now, here's the latest of 3 attacks:

Ground combat at Wenchow (89,58)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 22465 troops, 197 guns, 319 vehicles, Assault Value = 741

Defending force 12989 troops, 57 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 342

Japanese adjusted assault: 465

Allied adjusted defense: 604

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 2)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1365 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 101 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 15 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Allied ground losses:
1316 casualties reported
Squads: 14 destroyed, 78 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 35 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled


Burma

Mixed news here.

Things are looking up in the Andaman Sea. A few turns ago I received Sig Int of Japanese troops loaded for Trinkat. Admiral Bonnie ordered the Royal Navy to sail and the Fleet Air Arm performed well. At least 3 IJN ships sunk, several more damaged, a mere 600 Japanese troops unloaded at Trinkat. While the base is lost the IJN will have to reinforce before they can build an offensive airfield there.

On the 13th Bettys launch both against the Royal Navy carriers and a fast transport TF at Little Andaman. 19 Bettys were shot down and there were no hits against my shipping.

In the meantime I've been building at Port Blair and Little Andaman. I can't say they're impregnable but they will require a significant Japanese naval commitment to take them.

However in Burma proper the IJA is concentrating against my western flank which is my weakest. If/when this line is broken I'll retreat to the jungles north of Mandalay.

[image]local://upfiles/18431/64471B0B621443E0917CB89826010547.jpg[/image]




ctangus -> RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (12/30/2012 8:57:11 PM)

Despite the setback at Noumea Admiral Bonnie remains confident. Here she is plotting her revenge:

[image]local://upfiles/18431/A343F93E4E294E05A569C1AFA4F22EBC.jpg[/image]




ctangus -> RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (1/1/2013 9:17:09 PM)

[b3/14 - 3/17/42]

Happy New Year to any readers!

South Pac

After the fall of Noumea this theater has quieted down. I'm getting reinforcements to Samoa & Fiji and building Lord Howe, Norfolk & Raoul islands as ferry bases.

Northern Aus

One Japaneses SNLF Coy is chasing Australian base forces retreating from Broome & Derby. On the 17th a large airstrike was launched against Darwin's airfield. I suspect I'll see the next Japanese offensive here, before the end of the month when the invasion bonus expires.

Philippines

On the 15th Cagayan fell. This ends allied presence on Mindanao. The Japanese still have a little mopping up to do on Leyte, Cebu & one more island but all effective resistance has ended.

Burma

The IJA broke through on my western flank and I've ordered a general retreat. I may try to hold at Mandalay for a few turns as I have level 3 forts there but but the next main line of resistance will be in the jungles north of there.

China

Supported by IJN bombardments the IJA launched a shock attack at Wenchow on the 16th. The IJA will take this base - hate to lose the supply generation but c'est la guerre. I'm retreating but doubt my forces can escape before they're forcibly evicted:

Ground combat at Wenchow (89,58)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 22179 troops, 197 guns, 319 vehicles, Assault Value = 710

Defending force 11775 troops, 57 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 208

Japanese adjusted assault: 850

Allied adjusted defense: 259

Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 2)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 0

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
749 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 74 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Allied ground losses:
621 casualties reported
Squads: 93 destroyed, 57 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 14 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
Guns lost 8 (1 destroyed, 7 disabled)


Overall

Some random thoughts about the game in general...

With the loss of Cagayan the Japanese have completely secured the SRA. (OK, there's still a little mopping up for them to do in the Philippines & Java.) They're beyond the historical perimeter on New Guinea, the New Hebrides & New Caledonia. Burma is collapsing.

I have had moderate success in China but supplies are becoming problematic.

I also have a decent presence in the Andaman Sea. It would be unwise for the Japanese to invade Ceylon or India before taking care of Port Blair & Little Andaman.

I believe the next main Japanese offensive will be against Northern Aus. He already has a foothold & is starting to bomb Darwin. I won't contest that too much for now.

Further offensives are possible in South Pac but Samoa is much stronger than New Caledonia was & growing stronger daily. New Zealand holds a bunch of troops I had intended to send to New Caledonia and an invasion there triggers reinforcements I think.

Attached is a strategic map:

[image]local://upfiles/18431/550052AD736F40B2B4194EFF2D1C33C3.jpg[/image]




ctangus -> RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (1/4/2013 10:37:21 PM)

3/18 - 3/23/42

The last few turns have largely been quiet but things might be heating up a bit. MAGIC intelligence (Quixote's emails) leads me to believe that we'll see another invasion or two or three before the end of the month & the end of the Japanese invasion bonus.

I'll try to update a few theaters.

North Pac

SS I-9 sank an ACM I was sending unescorted to the theater. Otherwise it's still cold up here & still boring.

Cent Pac

After refits at Pearl I sent a BB division (2 Tennessee class) to South Pac. 4 or 5 turns ago I decided to give them some training by bombarding Tabiteuea en route. I messed up my orders a bit because they arrived during the day, not the night like I had intended. However the timing could not have been more fortuitous - they intercepted a troop-carrying TF that had just arrived:

[image]local://upfiles/18431/95E997D08994407E844CA08AFE4FD5CE.jpg[/image]




ctangus -> RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (1/4/2013 10:49:30 PM)

South Pac

The Japanese are starting to recon Fiji. I-6 hits a mine at Nadi - it's reported sunk though I doubt that. My defenses here are about as strong as they can be at this point in the game. I'll provide more detail in my next update.

Also in South Pac the IJN seems to be taking interest in my reinforcement of Norfolk Island. There is an IJN TF within sprinting distance. They will be met by two SAGs - the NZ Cruisers and a slow USN BB Division (2 Nevada class).

TF 17 (USN CVs) is also being committed. It's sprinting to a point where it should be able to hit both shipping at Noumea & IJN forces retreating from Norfolk Island.

I don't know where KB is but I'm pretty sure it's not nearby. I have a number of subs near & north of New Caledonia & most are undetected. I'm pretty sure KB is either undergoing some R&R or sailing to support operations on Northern Australia.

[image]local://upfiles/18431/C04487BD58664316873E8439F490E2A6.jpg[/image]




ctangus -> RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (1/4/2013 10:57:04 PM)

Northern Australia

The Japanese, using light forces, have now taken Broome, Derby, Port Hedland and a dot base. With recon activity all over the place and continual bombing of Darwin I suspect I'll see a larger invasion soon.

I haven't reinforced this area at all yet beyond 2 or 3 Dutch evacuee units. I'm railing a few units to Alice Springs for the moment.

[image]local://upfiles/18431/04F3277F19D249DCB5FDD33132427355.jpg[/image]




ctangus -> RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (1/4/2013 11:05:58 PM)

Java

One pocket of Dutch troops still refuses to surrender but I'm sure they won't last much longer.

Andaman Sea

The Japanese are concentrating a lot of air power to try to close Port Blair with multiple sweeps & multiple AF attacks. I lost a dozen or more Hurricanes with little in return. Currently the AF is damaged but open (39/30). In 2-3 turns I'm going to try to fight a convoy through with an Air HQ so torpedo bombers can be based there.

The airfield next door at little Andaman is gradually growing and hasn't been attacked yet. It's currently 1 + 48%.

Burma

We're not retreating, we're simply consolidating our lines...

China

A mess, but mostly a stalemated mess.

Gobi Desert

The IJA seems to be devoting more & more units to this theater.

[image]local://upfiles/18431/C0ACBBBF7F5E45AEAA538C501B36C013.jpg[/image]




tomomo1996 -> RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (1/5/2013 2:22:08 AM)

I am reading now.

Your dog is very cute!
I look forward to the photograph of your dog.
Of course as for the AAR[:D]

Your opponent is better at an attack than me[X(]




ctangus -> RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (1/5/2013 10:18:35 PM)

こんにちは! Thanks for reading.

Maybe I'm just a poorer defender than your opponent! [:D]




ctangus -> RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (1/5/2013 10:52:09 PM)

3/24 - 3/25/42

South Pac

My naval maneuvering between New Zealand & New Caledonia had mixed results. I did successfully protect reinforcements & supplies at Norfolk Island but I could have caused a lot more damage.

First at night on the 24th the New Zealand cruisers intercept a small IJN raiding force:

Night Time Surface Combat, near Norfolk Island at 113,170, Range 11,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CA Kinugasa, Shell hits 1
DD Urakaze
DD Tanikaze

Allied Ships
CL Leander
CL Achilles, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Alden, Shell hits 1
DD Parrott
DD Le Triomphant


While indecisive it kept the IJN away from my transports. I had sent a BB division there as well but they did not engage.

In the morning a small strike from the USN CVs attacked the same Japanese TF and perform well:

Morning Air attack on TF, near Noumea at 116,160

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 16 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 5

Allied aircraft
F4F-3 Wildcat x 32
F4F-4 Wildcat x 12
SBD-3 Dauntless x 32

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
SBD-3 Dauntless: 5 damaged

Japanese Ships
CA Kinugasa, Bomb hits 4, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Urakaze, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage Now on the sunk ships list
DD Tanikaze


In the afternoon the USN launches a large alpha strike against shipping at Noumea:

Afternoon Air attack on Noumea , at 115,160

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 22

Allied aircraft
F4F-3A Wildcat x 27
F4F-3 Wildcat x 39
F4F-4 Wildcat x 12
SBD-2 Dauntless x 32
SBD-3 Dauntless x 92
TBD-1 Devastator x 56

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
SBD-2 Dauntless: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged
SBD-3 Dauntless: 1 destroyed, 4 damaged
TBD-1 Devastator: 3 damaged

Japanese Ships
DD Mutsuki
PB Kaikei Maru, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
PB Hakkaisan Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Shirayuki, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Uzuki
DD Suzukaze
SS I-23, Bomb hits 1, heavy damage


180 bombers launch, 178 get through CAP and they score a grand total of 4 bomb hits... [:(]

Philippines

The Japanese take Cebu and thus ends the last armed resistance in the Philippines.

Burma

Run away!!!

China

The IJA routes a small rearguard in the Gobi Desert. The Chinese route a Temp RGC Division between Ichang & Nanyang.

Say, does anyone know what RGC stands for? I'm guessing that these troops are ethnic Chinese fighting for the Japanese but don't really know.

Andaman Sea

On the 24th the Japanese closed Port Blair's airfield - roughly two days before I could coordinate a strong fighter defense. On the 25th some IJN light cruisers bombarded Little Andaman but the airfield remains open.

I'm trying to ship in an Air HQ to provide torpedo capability. I originally intended it for Port Blair but I'm now sending it to Little Andaman. (AF 1 + 56%). 1 P-40E squadron, 1 Hurricane squadron & CV Indomitable will be providing CAP. Two Royal Navy SAGs will be providing cover as well.

CVL Hermes just used up all her torpedoes while sinking an AMc at Port Blair. I'm going to swap out her Swordfish for some Fulmars for the moment but she's not in range of the Fulmars so will be out of the fight for a day.

CV Formidable just entered the map from Capetown & can join the party in about a week if I need her.

[image]local://upfiles/18431/B24F81B925F04F149364839697F92B4D.jpg[/image]




ctangus -> RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (1/6/2013 6:57:37 PM)

3/26/42

Japanese carriers show their face and it does look like Quixote will try to get a few more invasions in before the end of the month.

Cent Pac

Some transports covered by what might be a carrier division show up west of Midway.

I can't do too much to respond. Based on sigint I had just a few turns ago landed a Marine Raider battalion. Two subs were transiting the area and are vectored in. From Pearl a half-strength F2A3 squadron and half-strength Vindicator squadron are staged in.

Other reinforcements are days away. A destroyer division just left Pearl but could be re-routed back. In 1 day another DD division finishes upgrades at Pearl. In 5 days a BB division finishes upgrades. CV Hornet just entered the map & will arrive at Pearl in 5 days with escorts.

[image]local://upfiles/18431/2C59F2D45A7F4EEA8733683CF2300B76.jpg[/image]




ctangus -> RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (1/6/2013 6:59:39 PM)

South Pac

There's potentially a move against either Lord Howe Island or Norfolk Island. If so naval forces are being positioned to interfere:

[image]local://upfiles/18431/0ABD843B163C484CB60EC302671567FE.jpg[/image]




ctangus -> RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (1/6/2013 7:18:16 PM)

Andaman Sea

A strong IJN carrier force surprises the Royal Navy and only bad weather prevented what could have been a disaster. I did have Catalinas covering the Strait of Malacca but didn't spot them until this turn. Either weather kept them covered or they came via the southern side of Sumatra.

I believe the carrier force is Baby KB + Kaga + Junyo. Planes from Shoho, Zuiho, Kaga & Junyo were identified. No planes launched in the morning. In the afternoon 3 raids are launched. A number of ships were damaged but it could have been much worse:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Little Andaman at 40,57

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 106 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 39 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 39
B5N1 Kate x 9
B5N2 Kate x 32
D3A1 Val x 44

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N1 Kate: 2 damaged
B5N2 Kate: 2 damaged
D3A1 Val: 11 damaged
D3A1 Val: 3 destroyed by flak

Allied Ships
BB Ramillies, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 1 10/22(9)/1 16 knots
CL Durban, Bomb hits 2, on fire, heavy damage 54/26(13)/4/3 21 knots
AMC Corfu, Torpedo hits 1 27/36(31)/0 11 knots
BB Resolution, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 1 25/26(21)/2 15 knots
CA Cornwall
CL Dragon, Bomb hits 3 2/2/0
CL Ceres, Bomb hits 1, on fire 23/4(2)/5(1) 26 knots
AMC Chitral, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage 38/61(46)/19(13) 5 knots
DE Sutlej

Allied ground losses:
50 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
10 x D3A1 Val releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
5 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
26 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo
5 x D3A1 Val releasing from 1000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
6 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo
9 x B5N1 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo
5 x D3A1 Val releasing from 1000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
4 x D3A1 Val releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
10 x D3A1 Val releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
4 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 250 kg SAP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Little Andaman at 41,57

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 22 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 23
B5N2 Kate x 27

Allied aircraft
Fulmar II x 4
Sea Hurricane Ib x 1

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N2 Kate: 1 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
Fulmar II: 2 destroyed
Sea Hurricane Ib: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
CM Abdiel

Aircraft Attacking:
27 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo

CAP engaged:
No.800 Sqn FAA with Fulmar II (4 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(4 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 10000
Raid is overhead
No.880 Sqn FAA with Sea Hurricane Ib (1 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(1 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
Group patrol altitude is 15000
Raid is overhead

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Little Andaman at 40,57

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 22 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B5N1 Kate x 8

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N1 Kate: 6 damaged
B5N1 Kate: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied Ships
BB Ramillies
BB Warspite

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x B5N1 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Damaged ships are fleeing towards Madras and/or Trincomalee. One SAG is headed towards little Andaman and another towards Port Blair - both will retire towards Diamond Harbour. Indomitable & Hermes will head to a location to hopefully cover the retreating SAGs. Formidable is two-days out from Colombo.

[image]local://upfiles/18431/5F657E3FB1574D2B801A190A95255E7B.jpg[/image]




BBfanboy -> RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (1/6/2013 7:41:36 PM)

March 1942 and you are not running away from Kates and Betties? Gutsy move! I hope you catch his landing force and slaughter it, although I would expect some sort of heavy SCTF cover.

Re: those landing barges off Lord Howe Island, those things do not have much range so there is a nanny with them to provide fuel. Hopefully it is something your guys can slap around.




ctangus -> RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (1/6/2013 8:33:23 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

March 1942 and you are not running away from Kates and Betties? Gutsy move! I hope you catch his landing force and slaughter it, although I would expect some sort of heavy SCTF cover.


Well, I've got to fight at some point. I was counting on poor weather to help me. Plus this position could prove very problematic for the Japanese should I be able to hold.

The new turn's in. In short - no landing force encountered & thanks to a d@mn sub I no longer have to worry about Warspite's withdrawal date. It wasn't completely one-sided though & my carriers were untouched...

quote:

Re: those landing barges off Lord Howe Island, those things do not have much range so there is a nanny with them to provide fuel. Hopefully it is something your guys can slap around.


The barges have disappeared. Perhaps they just reacted away from one of my subs in the area.

Full update in a few hours. Quixote doesn't expect the turn until late this evening & I have nothing to do but nurse the turn, watch NFL playoffs & walk the little admiral.




ctangus -> RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (1/6/2013 11:13:19 PM)

3/27/42

Cent Pac

The Japanese Midway invasion hasn't landed yet but probably will this next turn. Perhaps we'll have success here - MAGIC intercepts (e-mails) suggest that the Japanese high command is concerned that they haven't committed enough forces.

quote:

At some point in the future when it won't matter, let me know if those APDs of yours from a couple of turns ago brought in an additional ground unit at Midway, or if they just had supplies. I've reconned Midway at least 6 or 7 times and gotten roughly the same answer on how many troops and units were there - the last time as recently as a week ago in game time. This turn, I'm detecting almost twice the number of troops, guns, and vehicles there....fun, fun. Well, we'll see if I brought enough firepower to take the place pretty soon, I guess.


Dunno how it will turn out. I haven't paid too much attention to the defenses here. The APDs Quixote noticed were shipping in a Raider Battalion. I'd like to hold it but honestly don't consider Midway all that crucial.

An airstrike from the IJN confirmed the presence of Akagi, Hiryu, Soryu & Shokaku. Except for Zuikaku and possibly 1 or 2 CVEs all IJN carrier decks are accounted for. It's possible Zui is still repairing from a sub torpedo hit.

[image]local://upfiles/18431/7DE9BCCCB11C4CB7B366E69B40728F6F.jpg[/image]




ctangus -> RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (1/6/2013 11:37:51 PM)

Andaman Sea

The early hours of the morning did not start well as a sub puts two torpedoes into Warspite. Bugger...

Sub attack near Port Blair at 45,58

Japanese Ships
SS I-165

Allied Ships
BB Warspite, Torpedo hits 2, heavy damage
DD Isis
DD Jupiter


The Japanese sent no invasion TFs in this turn. However at Port Blair RN cruisers did have some success against IJN minesweepers:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Port Blair at 46,58, Range 1,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
DMS W-13, Shell hits 3
DMS W-17, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk

Allied Ships
CL Dragon
CL Dauntless
DD Stronghold

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Time Surface Combat, near Port Blair at 46,58, Range 5,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
AMc Banshu Maru #18, Shell hits 6, and is sunk
AMc Kembu Maru, Shell hits 7, and is sunk

Allied Ships
CL Dragon
CL Dauntless
DD Stronghold


Warspite, slowed down by her encounter with I-165, is easily sunk by Baby KB:

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Port Blair at 45,58

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 102 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 43 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 46
B5N2 Kate x 35

Allied aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N2 Kate: 6 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
Walrus II: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
BB Warspite, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
DD Jupiter


The Royal Navy carriers once again avoid attack but they also avoid attacking.

This was a tactical loss for sure. BB Warspite != 1 DMS & 2 AMc. But perhaps the lack of minesweeping will hurt the IJN when they invade Port Blair. We'll see in the next turn or 3 I'm sure.

[image]local://upfiles/18431/630E7579ED0144F7BF0E6C2B71569439.jpg[/image]




ctangus -> RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (1/9/2013 10:51:42 PM)

3/28 - 4/1/42

March is over & so is the Japanese invasion bonus. Woot!

Cent Pac

On the 28th SS Gato launched 4 torps at Akagi and missed. USMC Vindicators launched against Shokaku and missed. After much pounding by KB (including Zuikaku's air group which I hadn't noticed before) and some bombardments the Japanese invade:

Ground combat at Midway Island (158,91)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 4432 troops, 29 guns, 41 vehicles, Assault Value = 152

Defending force 3418 troops, 63 guns, 67 vehicles, Assault Value = 83

Japanese adjusted assault: 0

Allied adjusted defense: 52

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 99 (fort level 3)

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), leaders(-), disruption(-), preparation(-)
fatigue(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), disruption(-)

Japanese ground losses:
4297 casualties reported
Squads: 187 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 72 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 30 (28 destroyed, 2 disabled)
Vehicles lost 35 (9 destroyed, 26 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
3 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
47th Infantry Regiment
16th Recon Regiment

Defending units:
3rd Marine Raider Battalion
116th USAAF Base Force
6th Marine Defense Battalion


Not too shabby! [:)]

Northern Australia

Part of the Royal Dutch Navy intercepts an unescorted task force at Exmouth:

Day Time Surface Combat, near Exmouth at 50,129, Range 9,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
TB Tomozuru, Shell hits 1, on fire
PB Kyo Maru #2, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
xAK Nikki Maru, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
xAK Tokusima Maru, Shell hits 11, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Hokumai Maru, Shell hits 10, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Hokutai Maru, Shell hits 10, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
xAK Hukuzyu Maru, Shell hits 7, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk

Allied Ships
CL Java, Shell hits 1
CL Sumatra
CL Tromp
DD Tjerk Hiddes
DD Piet Hein, Shell hits 1
DD Van Ghent, Shell hits 1


The troops were unloaded, however, & Exmouth fell.

Bay of Bengal/Andaman Sea

Also on the 29th CV Formidable, while swinging around Ceylon, ate a torp from SS I-175. [:(] Currently at 16/36(29)/1.

Quixote brought a lot to the party at Port Blair (3 divisions) and it easily fell on the 30th:

Ground combat at Port Blair (46,58)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 38171 troops, 330 guns, 142 vehicles, Assault Value = 1362

Defending force 8882 troops, 171 guns, 31 vehicles, Assault Value = 198

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 1

Japanese adjusted assault: 1587

Allied adjusted defense: 75

Japanese assault odds: 21 to 1 (fort level 1)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Port Blair !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), disruption(-), morale(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
1301 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 102 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 11 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 19 disabled
Guns lost 7 (1 destroyed, 6 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
13234 casualties reported
Squads: 195 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 487 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 74 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 182 (182 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 31 (31 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 8

Assaulting units:
38th Division
21st Division
Imperial Guards Division
15th Army

Defending units:
Medan Coastal Gun Battalion
Tenasserim BAF Battalion
NS KNIL Territory Regiment
6th Burma Rifles Battalion
108th RAF Base Force
108th/2 Base Force
Port Blair RN Det
RAF 224 Group Base Force


Next door at Little Andaman started receiving bombardements. I had a couple fighter squadrons there but supply has run low, they lost their drop tanks & I was forced to disband them.

Burma

Mandalay was abandoned and fell on the 29th. We're currently building forts against the river but the Japanese aren't advancing there yet. Two IJA units are heading east towards Lashio where I have a small blocking force.

China

Lots of movement. Deserves a full update which I'll try to get done tomorrow.

With the first four months of the war done I thought I'd post the intel screen:



[image]local://upfiles/18431/FC137C92E9C342F7A31028197D1B0DED.jpg[/image]




ctangus -> RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (1/13/2013 2:56:14 PM)

4/2 -4/7/42

The last few turns haven't been all fun & games but it was nice to have this replay in my inbox this morning. Dare I hope they'll both sink?

[image]local://upfiles/18431/E2FC0C200F5B4BC785A2160BD9AD53F1.jpg[/image]




ctangus -> RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (1/13/2013 4:04:40 PM)

Bay of Bengal (cont)

I spotted the Baby KB (or maybe I should call it the slow KB, <30 knots) on the 6th about halfway between Port Blair & Ceylon. Suspecting a raid I staged the FAA to land bases. While I did get the hits above that was the only success. In return the IJN:

- Hit CVL Hermes pretty bad in port at Trincomalee (59/49/13/2)
- Sunk a Dutch sub at Trincomalee
- Damaged 4 cruisers
- Shot down 49 British Torpedo Bombers. 6 months of production!
- Scored 75 vs 35 air losses for the day.

Here are all the attacks:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Trincomalee at 34,49

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 34 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 22 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 54

Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIb Trop x 7
Swordfish I x 14

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
Hurricane IIb Trop: 3 destroyed
Swordfish I: 7 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Trincomalee at 34,49

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 20 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 39

Allied aircraft
Albacore I x 16
Fulmar II x 7

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
Albacore I: 9 destroyed
Albacore I: 1 destroyed by flak
Fulmar II: 2 destroyed

Japanese Ships
CV Junyo

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Trincomalee at 34,49

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 27 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 17 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 26

Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIb Trop x 23
Swordfish I x 11

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Hurricane IIb Trop: 3 destroyed
Swordfish I: 3 destroyed, 4 damaged
Swordfish I: 1 destroyed by flak

Japanese Ships
CV Junyo, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
CV Kaga, Torpedo hits 3, heavy damage

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x Swordfish I launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Mk XII Torpedo

Fuel storage explosion on CV Junyo

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Trincomalee at 34,49

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid detected at 24 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 21

Allied aircraft
Albacore I x 7
Fulmar II x 8

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
Albacore I: 4 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Colombo at 29,48

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 109 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 40 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 38
D3A1 Val x 6

Allied aircraft
Fulmar II x 9
Sea Hurricane Ib x 3

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 2 destroyed
D3A1 Val: 3 damaged
D3A1 Val: 2 destroyed by flak

Allied aircraft losses
Fulmar II: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
CA Dorsetshire
CL Glasgow

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x D3A1 Val releasing from 3000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 250 kg SAP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Colombo at 29,48

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 93 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 34 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 23
B5N2 Kate x 2
D3A1 Val x 21

Allied aircraft
Fulmar II x 4
Sea Hurricane Ib x 3

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N2 Kate: 1 damaged
B5N2 Kate: 1 destroyed by flak
D3A1 Val: 3 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
Fulmar II: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
BB Revenge
CA Dorsetshire
CL Dauntless, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Paladin
DD Panther
CL Dragon, Bomb hits 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Trincomalee , at 31,47

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid spotted at 30 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G4M1 Betty x 40

Allied aircraft
Fulmar II x 2

Japanese aircraft losses
G4M1 Betty: 2 destroyed

No Allied losses

Allied Ships
CVL Hermes, Bomb hits 4, on fire

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Trincomalee at 34,49

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 38 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 24 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 12

Allied aircraft
Swordfish I x 2

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
Swordfish I: 1 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Trincomalee , at 31,47

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid spotted at 39 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 16 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 6
B5N1 Kate x 6
B5N2 Kate x 23

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N1 Kate: 2 damaged

Allied Ships
CVL Hermes, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
CL Caledon, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CL Capetown, Bomb hits 2, on fire
CLAA Van Heemskerck, Bomb hits 1, on fire
SS KXVIII, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk

Port hits 2

Fuel storage explosion on CVL Hermes
Massive explosion on CLAA Van Heemskerck

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Cent Pac/South Pac

KB (or fast KB) is spotted in the Gilberts. Quixote may have been trying to set a trap at Tabiteuea where there's a small convoy. Or perhaps KB's coming to cover further moves in the theater.

I'm still not sure if Zui is with KB or not. I did detect one of her air groups over in the Bay of Bengal so she could still be repairing. It's possible Hiyo's about to come on line.

Below shows my defenses in the area. I have two offensive airfields in both Samoa & Fiji and am building a third in each. The larger bases all have mines, CD guns & AA guns. For LBA I have @150 fighters, 75 DBs and 30 MBs between Auckland, Samoa & Fiji. Hornet just finished her April upgrades and is sailing from Pearl to join the other 4 allied carriers.

[image]local://upfiles/18431/36AE8250FA954ABD82022849D3BAB69C.jpg[/image]




ctangus -> RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (1/13/2013 4:14:53 PM)

China

Still a mess. The Chinese did destroy an RGC Temp division in the last few turns but also got a small stack hopelessly surrounded in the east. More later.

Burma

A small fast transport TF takes Akyab. Lashio is about to fall. The IJA crosses the river from Mandalay to Shwebo; the base is doomed but I may be able to withdraw the troops in good order:

Ground combat at Shwebo (59,45)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 28010 troops, 298 guns, 44 vehicles, Assault Value = 924

Defending force 25254 troops, 291 guns, 81 vehicles, Assault Value = 842

Japanese adjusted assault: 538

Allied adjusted defense: 186

Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 2)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 0

Combat modifiers
Defender: preparation(-), morale(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), disruption(-)

Japanese ground losses:
5927 casualties reported
Squads: 120 destroyed, 243 disabled
Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 43 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Guns lost 33 (5 destroyed, 28 disabled)
Vehicles lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
2294 casualties reported
Squads: 39 destroyed, 251 disabled
Non Combat: 9 destroyed, 79 disabled
Engineers: 8 destroyed, 23 disabled
Guns lost 77 (8 destroyed, 69 disabled)

Assaulting units:
42nd Infantry Regiment
55th Infantry Regiment
4th Division
56th Infantry Regiment
41st Infantry Regiment
18th Mountain Gun Regiment
1st RF Gun Battalion
14th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
Southern Army
21st Medium Field Artillery Battalion

Defending units:
48th Gurkha Brigade
200th Chinese Division
Railway BAF Battalion
9th Burma Rifles Battalion
Mandalay BMP Battalion
36th Chinese Division
BFF Brigade
1st Burma Division
Upper Burma BAF Battalion
16th Indian Brigade
88th Chinese Division
Burma Corps
1st Burma Auxiliary AA Regiment
106th RAF Base Force
103rd RAF Base Force
107th RAF Base Force
221 Group RAF
85th British AT Rgt /1


[image]local://upfiles/18431/25B2E6866B0245AD8DDCB0E8CFF52AF5.jpg[/image]




BBfanboy -> RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (1/13/2013 5:21:52 PM)

Nice work at Trincomalee. Trading Hermes for Junyo is a good deal! Considering:

Japanese Ships
CV Junyo, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
CV Kaga, Torpedo hits 3, heavy damage

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x Swordfish I launching torpedoes at 200 feet
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Mk XII Torpedo

Fuel storage explosion on CV Junyo

... with two torps and a FSE, Junyo is unlikely to survive. I think she is only about 16,000 tons. On the other hand Kaga is about 36,000 tons with BC armour, so without fires I think it will survive the three torps. BTW, I think Hiyo is still a couple of months from completion. Junyo must have been brand-spanking new.

Nice job on that river crossing at Shwebo. If you disrupted most of his stack you could try a deliberate attack next turn. If you think he has too much, you might want to retreat and try to save some of your troops before he recovers too much.




ctangus -> RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (1/13/2013 6:21:45 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

... with two torps and a FSE, Junyo is unlikely to survive. I think she is only about 16,000 tons. On the other hand Kaga is about 36,000 tons with BC armour, so without fires I think it will survive the three torps.


That does sound like the likeliest outcome when you describe it that way. Still I can pray to the die-roll gods of Japanese damage control that they both sink...

The new turn's in. At least one of those CVs is only making 1 hex/phase.

quote:

Nice job on that river crossing at Shwebo. If you disrupted most of his stack you could try a deliberate attack next turn. If you think he has too much, you might want to retreat and try to save some of your troops before he recovers too much.


Yea, I'm bugging out.




ctangus -> RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (1/13/2013 7:41:42 PM)

4/8/42

Bay of Bengal

As mentioned at least one of the damaged IJN CVs is making only one hex/phase. I'm vectoring what subs I can to the area but I don't have many operational nearby. Not shown on the screenshot are four in/near the Strait of Malacca.

Unescorted Betties, flying at least 20 hex range, strike Trincomalee again. Hermes takes a few more hits and is now at 61/47(35)/14(6). My CAP did shoot down another 28 Betties - that's 366 IJN medium bombers shot down to date.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Trincomalee , at 31,47

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 27 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G4M1 Betty x 51

Allied aircraft
Fulmar II x 10
Hurricane IIb Trop x 6
P-400 Airacobra x 22

Japanese aircraft losses
G4M1 Betty: 6 destroyed, 5 damaged

No Allied losses

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Trincomalee , at 31,47

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 5 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 1 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G4M1 Betty x 24

Allied aircraft
Fulmar II x 8
Hurricane IIb Trop x 6
P-400 Airacobra x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
G4M1 Betty: 3 destroyed

No Allied losses

Allied Ships
CVL Hermes, Bomb hits 2, heavy damage
CLAA Van Heemskerck, Bomb hits 1, on fire

Port hits 2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



[image]local://upfiles/18431/D9DB37EBFE4D4E518DBB076D72E8121A.jpg[/image]




ctangus -> RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (1/13/2013 7:51:58 PM)

Cent Pac

KB's been hanging out in the same hex in the Gilberts for two turns. I'm sending in a couple nearby subs to see if I can get lucky. That would be nice as I certainly didn't get lucky Friday night. I digress...

[image]local://upfiles/18431/47E45DC10EC24005BE4E964E5AC6BF6C.jpg[/image]




ctangus -> RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (1/13/2013 8:06:11 PM)

Northern Aus

Air raids against Darwin stopped for a little while but started again on the 6th I think. There's sigint of an IJA Infantry Regiment prepping for Darwin.

I'm really low on supply here & the last supply TF I sent to Darwin was sunk by a SAG a few turns ago. I'm playing with supply arrows to try to move supplies from Southern Aus to this area. I can pull supply to Alice Springs pretty easily but no luck yet getting supplies beyond there. Suggestions would be welcome on how to make that happen.

South China

This area's been pretty quiet for weeks though I've started to make some minor offensive moves. I continue to invest Canton and use it as a training ground for my troops. I've advanced out of Kukong and am beating up on a blocking force the IJA had been keeping nearby. I'll be attacking a similar blocking force near Wuchow next turn.

[image]local://upfiles/18431/63F080A45CB04AA78B610BCB0FEE70ED.jpg[/image]




ctangus -> RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (1/13/2013 8:30:14 PM)

Central China

I think the attached map should be pretty self-evident. [:'(]

Just in case it's not here's a bit of an explanation:

1. The IJA successfully surrounded the (former) Wenchow garrison. There's really no chance or reason to relieve them and they'll die in place. At the rate they're going they may hold out for a few more weeks though.

2. I withdrew from Chuhsien barely avoiding disaster. With Wenchow and its supply gone I have no reason to be in eastern China and am attempting an orderly withdrawal west of whatever river that is.

3. A Japanese division tried for a coup de main against Changsha but didn't count on the 600+ AV I had in reserve there. For the last week or two Chinese efforts at encirclement have been countered by Japanese efforts at relief. I'm not sure how it will play out but I have some confidence.

4. About 1100 Chinese AV will try invest Hankow newly. They might even have a chance of taking it - so far as I know there are only 2 units at Hankow. The unit to the NW is an AA unit that has already been routed once.

[image]local://upfiles/18431/F4F5438559424A9681303E4BA42C033B.jpg[/image]




ctangus -> RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (1/13/2013 8:40:15 PM)

North China (Sian/Nanyang area)

In a river crossing the bulk of the 20th group army destroyed an RGC Temp Division in recent days. However an attack by @2000 AV against an IJA roadblock NW of Nanyang was stopped.

Gobi Desert

IJA tanks blasted through the last roadblock towards Hami. Reinforcements en route but they'll probably arrive late. Ugh...

Map later...




witpqs -> RE: Tilting at Windmills - Adm Bonnie (& ctangus) vs. Quixote (1/13/2013 8:42:04 PM)

quote:

3. A Japanese division tried for a coup de main against Changsha but didn't count on the 600+ AV I had in reserve there. For the last week or two Chinese efforts at encirclement have been countered by Japanese efforts at relief. I'm not sure how it will play out but I have some confidence.

Based on those hex sides' ownerships he can still get supplies in there, but maybe not huge piles of it.




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