RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (Full Version)

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paullus99 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 11:52:29 AM)

John's rashness finally caught up with him - he was sending large task forces into the unknown, with no real goal - other than to force a confrontation...which you served up to him.

It isn't your fault that his plan fell apart right from the outset. If anything, he's lucky to have escaped with anything at this point.

Since all he seems to have left is fighters, going after the cripples with surface forces makes sense - tag a few more of his ships and then get yourself ready for the next round.

You've lost nothing but expendable assets at this point (plans and a few ships), so consolidating your gains makes sense in the face of this overwhelming victory.

If he does quit, then I'd have to say that this "all or nothing" mod & attitude is just a bunch of BS on his part.



pws1225 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 12:16:21 PM)

I doubt John will quit. All JFBs know a crushing carrier defeat is almost inevitable especially at this stage of the war. But all the defeat does is mark the end of the offensive phase of the war for Japan and shifts the emphasis to defense. I expect that John has managed his economy well and has prepared his defenses for this phase of the war (at least I hope so). To borrow a boxing analogy, John must now shift his weight from one foot to the other to block the blows CR will throw his way. If John has prepared for this day, he is still quite capable of frustrating/delaying CR's advance well beyond Aug 15, 1945.

I don't recall a game in which John played into 1945 to know whether he plans for the endgame, but I surely hope so. These two AARs are too much to read.




HansBolter -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 12:16:31 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Gents, I think John's big remaining TF will make a clean escape. That, I think, was what he's conditioning his continuance on. He'll need to gather his thoughts and work his resolve, but he'll stick. And he'll fight hard.


Make sure to get some sleep tonight CR.

On whether John continues, I think he owes it to you to continue on regardless. We've all seen him enjoy clobbering his opponent in the first 1800 months of the game many times. Frankly, I'd like him to continue to really see his mettle and learn whether he's a one trick pony. I for one, will be disappointed to not get to follow your road to victory if he concedes.



Glad to see you coming around to that way of thinking.

Obvert and a few others have expressed similar sentiments.

When I took this position some time ago in the face of a rash of JFBs throwing in the towel as soon as their day in the sun ended I was taken to task for it by a large contingent of regulars.

I bit my tongue and refrained from repeating that sentiment in the interest of board harmony.

Its very pleasing to see others coming around to the viewpoint that Japanese players owe a debt to the Allied players for agreeing to "take it on the chin" for as much as two years if not longer.

Obviously I whole heartedly agree.



Encircled -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 12:21:17 PM)

quote:

Its very pleasing to see others coming around to the viewpoint that Japanese players owe a debt to the Allied players for agreeing to "take it on the chin" for as much as two years if not longer.


I'd take each individual game on its merits to be honest, but in this one John has had four bad days out of almost two years. He's got to play on, if only for his own forum reputation if nothing else.




pws1225 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 12:25:09 PM)

As a JFB, I agree with Hans but for a different reason. Playing the defense as Japan is as much fun and more challenging than playing offense during the early years. Those who quit without good cause are missing a very enjoyable part of the game.



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 12:40:36 PM)

I was away from the box for a day-plus and seem to have missed a lot.

At this point it's all been said, so let me just add my own Bravo Zulu. You were meticulous in your analysis and movement planning. After I posted my warnings about a fair fight (the MKB didn't qualify in retrospect) I saw his map in his AAR and the almost exact same piece of water in yours. The difference in detection was striking. I don't know how any player with his level of experience could have had 20-ish carriers that deep in the wrong place, have zero DL on you, see a DL on himself for days, and not soil himself.

As others have said your strike coordination was simply amazing, especially considering the weather. I wish I knew how that worked so I could copy it.

It's a new game. Move on from your very gracious note. Your strategic possibility menu just changed by a lot. Prep times are prep times, but you can think bigger again.

Well done.



HansBolter -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 1:13:48 PM)

Been thinking about the night search issue and someone mentioned DL.

As I understand it DL is reset at the beginning of each turn and you have to re-establish it each turn.

As I also understand it DL builds up over the course of the turn with each new siting.

It makes a whole lot of sense that getting a DL established in the night phase establishes a base to build upon in the day phase.

Unless DL is reset at the beginning of each phase, which is not what I understand to be the case, starting the effort to build DL during the night phase may be a new tactic we will all be employing soon.



SuluSea -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 1:25:48 PM)

Congratulations CR! Very entertaining read. I figured John would lose badly if both carrier forces engaged. It's not my game but something doesn't seem right about quitting on someone after a big loss. It's late in the game for a JFB to be making offensive moves. Hopefully he soldiers on.

Best of luck (and enjoyed the hiking pics)!



uncivil_servant -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 1:37:06 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'll post in detail in just a moment. First, though, I'll share here the email I just sent to John. He hasn't expressed any despair beyond what I've already mentioned, but I know this is a rough patch for him. It's hard to write him in a way that doesn't somehow convey taunting, condescension or false empathy. But I've tried to craft a genuinely encouraging note:

"Thanks in part to the many whippings you've administered in this game and over the years, I suspect I know how you feel at the moment. There have been times when I felt like my hair was on fire, when I could feel my scalp tingle. I swear there have been occasions where I could even feel my hair turning gray. It is an agonizing feeling to get embroiled in a tough battle and then to have difficulty extracting your ships. Oh yes, you have had me right there more than once.

"Thanks to lessons I've learned through matches with you (and some others), I know that it takes time to fully recover my sense of balance and determination. Usually, I try to fip turns fast so that I can rid my nostrils of any lingering stench. But sometimes it helps to breath for a spell.

"As every Alied player who has suffered at your hands can attest, the climb back out of the gloomy days brings its own rewards and senses of accomplishment. The Japanese in your hands will always be dangerous. This has been a major battle, but it's just the first of many to come. I am under no illusions that you are on the ropes. You've been stung, so you will therefore be all the more cagey and dangerous.

"I have the turn mostly done. I doubt you want it right now judging by your last email suggesting that your window for doing turns may have closed today, but send word when you're ready for it."




This reminds me of Cobb's Regiment pouring down fire on their fellow Irishmen in the Fighting 69th at Fredericksburg and then giving them a cheer afterward. [;)]


Great analogy! Loved the scene in the Movie Gods and Generals



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 1:46:10 PM)

John has played deeply into at least one game. In our WitP game that began in 2007, the Allies invaded Hokkaido, the Kuriles and Sikhalin Island in early December 1943. We played deeply into 1944, as I recall. Most of the action was focused in NoPac, but the Allies also invaded Sumatra during 1944. And John invaded India in 1944! We finally called the game. It was a mutual decision and I don't remember exactly why. It was probably newbie thoughts on both our parts that since carriers were no longer central to the game (it was '44 and the Allies had closed on Japan proper) that the real fun was past us. We probably had other games going that struck as us more exciting. If that's what happened, we missed out on some very good stuff. I chalk that up to inexperienced stupidity on both our parts. But John did play late.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 2:09:40 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

....As others have said your strike coordination was simply amazing, especially considering the weather. I wish I knew how that worked so I could copy it.

It's a new game. Move on from your very gracious note. Your strategic possibility menu just changed by a lot. Prep times are prep times, but you can think bigger again.

Well done.


1. Perhaps coordination was a function of detection levels and the fact that all Allied strike aircraft originated from three TFs - each with three CVs and a CVL. And each had very good captains and commanders. But, of course, I'm no technician. I didn't even realize the strikes were anything out of the ordinary.

2. It is a new game. Prior to this battle, my focus was on going about one step at a time to methodically overwhelm John at single points, step by step: Kwaj then Roi then Eniwetok...or Amchitka then Shemya then Attu.

That strategy had already begun to morph a bit as John has been working hard to overgarrison all of the islands in question. His strategy was effective at hindering a step-by-step plan, so I had already decided to bypass Kusaie and to hit Wake immediately.

But now I can move forward more confidently and in bigger steps. I'm giving thought to how exactly this should be done. First, it won't be instantaneous. My ships and aircraft need to replace losses and ammo. That probably means Pearl Harbor. So I have to go backward before I can go forwards. But first there's the invasion of Wake to attend to. While these things are going on, John is probably going to focus on filling in island defenses at places like Marcus, Iwo, etc.

One possibility is that I'll send my carriers on a raid into the Iwo/Philippines area to disrupt his movements and to send his ships fleeing to use fuel. This would be to disrupt his logistical efforts to attend to his defenses.

Or I might hit Ponape next. I have two divisions 100% prepped. The island is very strongly held and I don't have good prep on support troops (like combat engineers and artillery). Ponape might be a good target to focus on.

A lot of troops in Oz are prepping for the Admiralties, New Britain, and northern New Guinea. That's another good possibility, although political points to buy them out will be an issue.

At the moment, I think my preferred course of action is to move west as strongly as possible, either through CenPac or north coast of New Guinea to close on the Philippines and/or Okinawa.

But I will also give due diligence to other options? Kuriles? Unlikely. Timor? Possible. Java? Possible. Sumatra? Probably not but possible.

What about John? Surface raiders will become a huge threat (that will be where he gets his offensive enjoyment). I also expect trouble in Burma and China, where navies aren't a major factor.



jwolf -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 2:23:28 PM)

Kudos for a well planned and well fought battle in the CenPac. It's very interesting to read your analysis of whether and how much to pursue and continue after each day, very much the same agonizing decisions the real life commanders faced.

The moral of this battle is: don't stick your neck out if you don't know where the axe is. That would have applied to your side as well, but now you can afford rather more boldness than before. Not reckless, but bold. Congrats again.



SqzMyLemon -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 2:45:23 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

Glad to see you coming around to that way of thinking.

Obvert and a few others have expressed similar sentiments.

When I took this position some time ago in the face of a rash of JFBs throwing in the towel as soon as their day in the sun ended I was taken to task for it by a large contingent of regulars.

I bit my tongue and refrained from repeating that sentiment in the interest of board harmony.

Its very pleasing to see others coming around to the viewpoint that Japanese players owe a debt to the Allied players for agreeing to "take it on the chin" for as much as two years if not longer.

Obviously I whole heartedly agree.


Hans,

I've never dropped a PBEM as Japan, or Allies for that matter. I've come close, but always soldiered on. I don't recall advocating anyone to drop a game just because it didn't go their way. I'm currently playing my worst game ever as Japan and won't quit that one either. If John quits the game after this defeat, I think his reputation would be so tarnished that he'd have a hard time finding another opponent. He really does have to continue this game.

When I started to play this game 7 years ago, I felt Japan needed some perks to remain competitive, that was my rookie viewpoint of the game. The game is completely different than it was seven years ago after various updates and betas. The days of any advantage to Japan are long gone and various mods and updates have reduced or eliminated many of the once Japanese advantages, excepting this one of course. I've also matured as a player and never played a documented PBEM with anything other than a Scenario 1 OOB, but regardless of the changes to playing Japan over the last few years, I'd never quit the game because of a naval defeat.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 3:48:15 PM)

Just 2.5 months ago game time (July '43), the Allies still held Sabang and were in the midst of the Marshalls/Gilberts invasions. That seems like ages ago, but it wasn't. The long nightmare that was the Battle of Sumatra lasted six months (not including the initial two months, which were successful and held lots of promise). The Battle of Wake Island has soothed the memories of that nightmare.



Panther Bait -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 4:00:38 PM)

Seems like the KB going forward will be small enough that the US can operate in two separate Death Stars and still be reasonably confident of numerical supremacy. At this point, do you know if he even gets any more carrier replacements? Seems likely that he accelerated them as much as possible.

Add in the large amount of CVEs, and it should be possible to move to your schedule with much less sensitivity to where the Kaigun is.

Mike



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 4:07:23 PM)

What's just happened can be traced directly to the Battle of Sumatra.

Usually I post John's email comments, as I know it adds to the readers' enjoyment of having an inside look. But I don't think I posted one comment he made a month or so back. He wrote (shortly after the Aleutians and then Marshalls/Gilberts operation wound down) that he knew I was coming somewhere in the late spring of '43, but he elected to focus on Sumatra to make sure it was taken care of. He had hoped that he'd have another month before I invaded anywhere, but I managed to catch him by surprise in NoPac (and then in CenPac). (He also wrote that he'd made a decision months back to begin withdrawing troops from the Marshalls, but I didn't find that particular statement credible - I felt like he was trying to use psy-ops to mislead as to why the Marshalls were only lightly defended).

So John's preoccupation with Sumatra, which undoubtedly was a vital campaign, allowed the Allies to achieve suprise and success in the Pacific. This, in turn, raised tension for John as he raced around reacting and building his defenses. In this highly energized atmosphere, he apparently exaggerated the importance of the Marshalls and Gilberts and felt like he had to defend there (or that it was a great place to offer battle).

One thing I posted a few weeks ago that was the truth but apparently not the whole truth was that John had gotten away with mistakes (like Mini KB's JEB Stuart ride through CenPac) but that wasn't a mistake if I didn't make him pay for it. That much is true - if we make a mistake but our opponent doesn't make us pay for it, then perhaps it isn't a mistake. But in some cases, as here, a player may draw bad conclusions from a mistake. In this case, I wonder if John didn't conclude that I wouldn't react to his carriers since I obstinantly stayed put in the Marshalls during his JEB Stuart ride and then during the opening moments of Steroid KBs raid past Johnston Island.

So sometimes a mistake is a mistake even when we don't pay for it.

And a final thought: what has just happened will seldom if ever be repeatable. John is a unique player (a legendary one since everybody knows of him and about him). But he does stuff that he shouldn't do. His TF composition can be very poor. But the biggest thing is going on joy rides lacking good information and detection. I've known the exact location of KB and most BBs for eight of the nine months since we resumed the game.

Very few experienced players would make mistakes like these. John is legendary - truly so (legendary not necessarily meaning "elite" or "great" or anything qualitative, but rather in relation to public awareness) - and due to his aggressiveness he can overwhelm players - even experienced players - early on. But that doesn't work very well when the enemy has grown as strong or stronger than his troops.

So what would I take from this game if I were to play some excellent IJN player? Well, I've gained alot of experience just managing assets and learning how features work. But the experience of playing John really isn't repeatable. So I'd have to gauge the opponent and figure out what would work best against them.



Encircled -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 4:12:54 PM)

You've played a blinder here with this one.

You've made him pay for some very sloppy play, and you've done that by picking the perfect moment to attack him.

[&o]



jwolf -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 4:14:12 PM)

quote:

One thing I posted a few weeks ago that was the truth but apparently not the whole truth was that John had gotten away with mistakes (like Mini KB's JEB Stuart ride through CenPac) but that wasn't a mistake if I didn't make him pay for it. That much is true - if we make a mistake but our opponent doesn't make us pay for it, then perhaps it isn't a mistake. But in some cases, as here, a player may draw bad conclusions from a mistake. In this case, I wonder if John didn't conclude that I wouldn't react to his carriers since I obstinately stayed put in the Marshalls during his JEB Stuart ride and then during the opening moments of Steroid KBs raid past Johnston Island.


This is an interesting idea: don't react to a mistake (at first), in the hope that the mistake will be repeated with larger stakes, as in this case.



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 4:18:04 PM)

quote:

Canoerebel: I'd have to gauge the opponent and figure out what would work best against them.


Another point about Intel being the most important element of the game. In this case, Intel on your opponent's strengths and weaknesses. You are the most analytical player about your opponent since Nemo left the forums. A great strength to have!



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 4:25:33 PM)

ywolf, yes, interesting idea. I wonder if the discipline involved in letting a player get away with mistakes would be awfully hard to maintain? In my case it wasn't an act of discipline - it was thinking that I had a more important mission to attend to.

Pantherbait, this does open up the seas to Allied aggression. I'll spend many hours thinking over possibilities. I doubt I'll create two Death Stars in the near term, though. I think I'd prefer to move en masse and overwhelm without fear of blundering into a combined KB/land-based attack that might prove too equal.

I think what I want to do is utilize existing prep (especially Wake and Ponape, maybe Eniwetok) to advantage. From there, I may go west to Truk or I may veer south to the Admiralties/New Britain/New Guinea. Either move poses a threat to cut off alot of Japanese troops - Kusaei, Rabaul, and Lunga have immense defenses; and even places like Noumea and Port Moresby are still defended.

I'll be island hopping. I don't see any need in the short term to look at New Caledonia, the Solomons, Tabituea, Kusaie, and probably Roi Namur. The Pacific is open, big islands are out there in isolated positions (Truk, Wolei, Iwo), so let's go west (or southwest along the New Guinea coast).



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 4:31:06 PM)

By "cut off" enemy troops, I don't mean to suggest that John will allow troops to get cut off. 6th Division at Lunga isn't going to get cut off because I invade Ponape in three weeks or Manus in six weeks. He'll get most of his troops out of harm's way. But he'll have to use ships and fuel to do so. If he's retrieving troops from Lunga or Noumea or Kusaie while I'm working over Ponape or Truk or Wolei, that will be worthwhile.



Flicker -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 4:32:09 PM)

Congratulations on a solid victory.

John's mini KB Jeb Stuart run might not be thought of as a mistake had it happened a week earlier when the sea lanes were full of shipping. Good idea, bad timing. However, IMO using CVEs as front line ships was a mistake.

Also, maybe the steroid KB can now be renamed; having that name seemed to give that fleet mystical properties - just as mini KB was vulnerable because it had a less powerful, diminutive name. Hmm, how does bald or shrunken testicles KB sound? Still muscular, just not as fearsome.



crsutton -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 4:33:30 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

....As others have said your strike coordination was simply amazing, especially considering the weather. I wish I knew how that worked so I could copy it.

It's a new game. Move on from your very gracious note. Your strategic possibility menu just changed by a lot. Prep times are prep times, but you can think bigger again.

Well done.


1. Perhaps coordination was a function of detection levels and the fact that all Allied strike aircraft originated from three TFs - each with three CVs and a CVL. And each had very good captains and commanders. But, of course, I'm no technician. I didn't even realize the strikes were anything out of the ordinary.




DL was very important. However, the key is that your carriers only had one key target within range. On large carrier (CVE) TF and no other distractions. The other carriers were out of your seven hex strike range so were not an option. I mentioned in John's AAR that if his CVEs had not reacted or his main force was within seven hexes of you the outcome would have probably been more balanced. I think he was is a fairly poor tactical position and then the fortunes of war made a tight situation catastrophic.

I think this reinforces my point made earlier that the time for him to seriously seek a carrier fight was a few months ago. Time was frittering away all of his advantages.

And, though there has been so much debate on its merits, I think that it is now pretty clear that you sacrificed a queen in Sumatra in order to get a checkmate in the Pacific.



Mike McCreery -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 4:34:40 PM)

The game has changed.

Figure out what your final approach to the HI will be so that you can plan accordingly moving backwards from there.

I have no idea how well John has Shikuka defended but my ability to sail past the barrier Kurile islands and do a direct assault and capture that base was instrumental in an early win against NJP in my last game.

My best advice would be to go strong and go deep.




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 4:37:00 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Flicker
Also, maybe the steroid KB can now be renamed...how does bald or shrunken testicles KB sound? Still muscular, just not as fearsome.


I refer your question to crsutton. I believe he had a dream about this very thing last night.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 4:41:21 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Wargmr
The game has changed...My best advice would be to go strong and go deep.


Hmm. Good prodding, Wargmr. My notions of "going deep" have been "New Guinea" or "Truk." The thought of striking Shokaku or Okinawa or the Philippines immediately hadn't occurred to me. (Of those, Shokaku would be best because of it's "proximity" to Midway or the Aluetians.)

There may be reasons I shouldn't go that far yet, but it would be a good idea to evaluate every possibility before making final decisions. Thanks for the suggestion.



jwolf -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 4:46:04 PM)

quote:

My notions of "going deep" have been "New Guinea" or "Truk."


Not exactly true -- originally the Aleutian strike was supposed to be deeper, to the big northern Japanese island (Hokkaido?) but you wisely pulled it back to the Aleutians.

I would imagine the Japanese in your game still have an immense number of fighter and strike aircraft, and in most of their empire those units can be moved around rather quickly and flexibly. All that is to say that targets at or close to Asia are likely to be difficult, though in the open Pacific your forces should (??) be supreme.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 4:46:06 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton
And, though there has been so much debate on its merits, I think that it is now pretty clear that you sacrificed a queen in Sumatra in order to get a checkmate in the Pacific.


Exactly!

By the way Ross, I was thinking of you this morning. During my waking moments, I might add.

Did you know that early in this game (sometime back in 1942, which would have been in 2013), you predicted that the Allies would win the war before the end of 1943? I came across this prediction months ago when I was reading back through the AAR after questions came up about House Rules (John wanted to know if we had a restriction versus night bombing.) I think there was another player that offered a similar prediction, but yours was memorably naked...I mean straightforward.

When the invasion of Sumatra achieved total surprise, I thougth your prediction (and the other player's) would come true. Then, when hopes grew dim in Sumatra, I doubted the end could come in '43. Then, when Hokkaido was wide open, my hopes rekindled. Then, when the Allies had to settle in for a more conventional war by focusing on islands, hopes dimmed again.




poodlebrain -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 4:58:43 PM)

How short a time ago was it in the game when John was strutting about like a peacock in the aftermath of the Battle of Sumatra? It is an awfully short turnaround for him to now be in despair. You played on despite a massive defeat. It would be disturbing if he does not.

Speaking of the Battle of Sumatra, just think of the impact it has on your ability to capitalize on your recent victory. All those lost ground units will limit your ability to move forward. You might want to remind John in one of your emails with a woe is me type complaint to boost his morale.

Psychological warfare in a PBEM game is something I hadn't really considered before now. The more I learn about this game the more there is to like.



Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/18/2016 5:01:13 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Did you know that early in this game (sometime back in 1942, which would have been in 2013), you predicted that the Allies would win the war before the end of 1943?



You haven't won the war. Japan still has an excellent chance to get a draw especially if you continue thinking like that and get sloppy.[:-]

The most dangerous animal is a wounded one.



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