RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (Full Version)

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Mike McCreery -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/5/2016 11:25:05 PM)

So much of it depends on the Japanese defense it is hard to identify a winning strategy every time.



crsutton -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/6/2016 4:40:45 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

I like Raboul because he can spread out in all directions and clear up his sea lanes.



I think any level seven port is key. Marcus, Rabaul, Truk (6-?) I prefer Marcus but Dan has not taken much in NG and the Solomons to back it up. I you are going up NG or through the Central Pacific then sooner or later you will really need to take Manila. Late game play really demands a major advanced ship yard. Manila, Hong Kong or Singapore. One of them must be taken.



BillBrown -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/6/2016 5:19:35 PM)

You typed Marcus, but I think you mean Manus(sp?)



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/6/2016 8:50:18 PM)

Hey, gents, just checking in during vacation. Here in North Myrtle Beach, SC, its raining, but me and the kids are heading down to the beach to ride the waves. In between, I ponder ways to vex John III. So far, I haven't dreamed about him, thankfully.

One of you guys seems to be inside my head. I won't mention who, right now, so that I don't give things away.

Big Tent has been "locked in" for about a month now, with lots of troops prepping. Thus far I haven't seen worrisome SigInt or base-building activity, so it should be good to go. But nearly every place you guys have mentioned (plus a few others) were considered before I made the selection.

You gents enjoy a nice Monday evening.



alaviner -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/7/2016 1:49:52 AM)

Enjoy N Myrtle. Its one of my old stomping grounds[sm=00000436.gif][sm=00000622.gif][sm=00000622.gif]



Cap Mandrake -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/7/2016 4:43:45 PM)



quote:

Big Tent: The sudden fall of Wake should allow Big Tent to proceed on its original schedule. It will take the carriers a good ten days to return to Pearl, where Enterprise, Hornet and South Dakota will likewise be ready in ten days. The last inbound troop TF is 42 hexes from Pearl - probably six or eight days. So embarkation date might well be in two weeks.



Hmmm..this is fun.[:)]

Assuming the US Navy/Army have not yet instituted random operation naming, what could "Big Tent" mean?

1) The author has secretly wanted to join the circus and bring his contortionist act to the world but his parents wanted him to be Atticus Finch

2) FDR is secretly going to use the military to take out his GOP rivals

3) The name refers to the scope of the operation, perhaps implying multiple targets collected under one geographic area

4) It is someplace with elephants

Now, FDR did try to pack the Supreme Court and incarcerate thousands of US citizens in internment camps but option 2 seems over the big top

For option 1 you would think we would have seen at least some pictures along the way or some mention of "limbering up".

For option 4..where are the nearest elephants? Thailand? Why would you start at Pearl Harbor.

That leaves option 3.......



Cap Mandrake -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/7/2016 4:55:45 PM)

Also, the capture of Wake is said to be "useful" ....removal of a land based air threat...removal of recon...staging of land based planes to move on to captured airfields during Big Tent?

Well, you don't need Wake to go after the Kuriles..unless the whole thing is a huge diversion. What is the next "Big Tent" of real estate? The Marinaras!

Of course, that could just be what we are supposed to deduce. [:)] The comment about "no recent building or recon" suggests a more ambitious plan with poorly guarded targets. This might mean the smaller islands of the Marinaras, Rota, Pagan, Anathan..or...



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/7/2016 5:12:24 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake



quote:

Big Tent: The sudden fall of Wake should allow Big Tent to proceed on its original schedule. It will take the carriers a good ten days to return to Pearl, where Enterprise, Hornet and South Dakota will likewise be ready in ten days. The last inbound troop TF is 42 hexes from Pearl - probably six or eight days. So embarkation date might well be in two weeks.



Hmmm..this is fun.[:)]

Assuming the US Navy/Army have not yet instituted random operation naming, what could "Big Tent" mean?

1) The author has secretly wanted to join the circus and bring his contortionist act to the world but his parents wanted him to be Atticus Finch

2) FDR is secretly going to use the military to take out his GOP rivals

3) The name refers to the scope of the operation, perhaps implying multiple targets collected under one geographic area

4) It is someplace with elephants

Now, FDR did try to pack the Supreme Court and incarcerate thousands of US citizens in internment camps but option 2 seems over the big top

For option 1 you would think we would have seen at least some pictures along the way or some mention of "limbering up".

For option 4..where are the nearest elephants? Thailand? Why would you start at Pearl Harbor.

That leaves option 3.......

Or maybe it just means a guy wearing loose pants at a "clothing optional" beach ....



Cap Mandrake -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/7/2016 5:17:57 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Or maybe it just means a guy wearing loose pants at a "clothing optional" beach ....


I know that guy. One time I was running along the bluff at Black's Beach in La Jolla and there is a UCSD maint. dude in his UCSD uniform sitting in a lawn chair with a big telescope checked out from the Astronomy Department.



Cap Mandrake -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/7/2016 5:27:11 PM)

We should handicap it:

Morning Rine, Hirohito Handicap:

Marinaras: 8:5

Bonin Isrands: 3:1

Kurires: 4:1

Truk Ragoon: 5:1

Rabaurh: 20:1

Phirripines: 50:1



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/7/2016 5:34:41 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

We should handicap it:

Morning Rine, Hirohito Handicap:

Marinaras: 8:5

Bonin Isrands: 3:1

Kurires: 4:1

Truk Ragoon: 5:1

Rabaurh: 20:1

Phirripines: 50:1


Truk + Pelelieu & Babeldaob: 14:3



poodlebrain -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/7/2016 5:53:40 PM)

Observing CR's play, it appears to me that he favors strategies that lead him nearer the Japanese Home Islands over strategies that isolate Japanese forces via flanking maneuvers. So if I were setting odds on the target for Big Tent I would make the Marianas the favorite. I really went out on a limb there, didn't I?

As atonement for my reluctance to expose my posterior by making a bold prediction, I'll offer my concept of operation, Poodlebrain's Big Tent Proposal. Capturing the entire island chain in a single swoop is not a realistic possibility with the forces available. So I propose to do so in stages. The first stage would involve a main invasion of Tinian with a supporting invasion of Pagan. Stage 2 of the operation would be to secure the lines of communication and develop Tinian and Pagan into bases capable of supporting the stage 3 invasion of Guam and Saipan. I would expect the entire operation to take as much as six months to complete.

While Big Tent is being conducted I would be making thrusts at economic targets elsewhere that would require the Japanese to commit the IJN, and the KB in particular, for the Japanese to have a favorable chance of repulsing. Lots of fun to be had with the Allied navies in 1944, and much of the forces lost on Sumatra will have been replaced and needing something to do.



poodlebrain -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/7/2016 6:00:32 PM)

quote:

Truk + Pelelieu & Babeldaob: 14:3
Truk is a tough nut to crack. I was going to propose going after one or more of the bases on the northwest coast of New Guinea, as an alternative to Truk, in combination with Pelelieu and Babeldaob. But I gave it less likelihood given my observation that CR prefers more direct approaches toward Japan, and the lines of communication would be long and exposed.



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/7/2016 6:03:17 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

Observing CR's play, it appears to me that he favors strategies that lead him nearer the Japanese Home Islands over strategies that isolate Japanese forces via flanking maneuvers. So if I were setting odds on the target for Big Tent I would make the Marianas the favorite. I really went out on a limb there, didn't I?

As atonement for my reluctance to expose my posterior by making a bold prediction, I'll offer my concept of operation, Poodlebrain's Big Tent Proposal. Capturing the entire island chain in a single swoop is not a realistic possibility with the forces available. So I propose to do so in stages. The first stage would involve a main invasion of Tinian with a supporting invasion of Pagan. Stage 2 of the operation would be to secure the lines of communication and develop Tinian and Pagan into bases capable of supporting the stage 3 invasion of Guam and Saipan. I would expect the entire operation to take as much as six months to complete.

While Big Tent is being conducted I would be making thrusts at economic targets elsewhere that would require the Japanese to commit the IJN, and the KB in particular, for the Japanese to have a favorable chance of repulsing. Lots of fun to be had with the Allied navies in 1944, and much of the forces lost on Sumatra will have been replaced and needing something to do.


I'd say Bonins because they may be easier. They'd also trigger kamikazes, right?

What about the Kuriles? You don't necessarily need all of the Aleutians to snag the Kuriles (can't remember if CR has them or not).



Cap Mandrake -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/7/2016 6:38:10 PM)

It's only October 43 so in terms of long range fighters we have:

P-38 G/H

P-51A and P-47D2 just starting to arrive.

Iwo Jima is 15 hexes from Yokahama. How much good does Iwo do the Allies in October 43?

On the other hand Etorofu, Toyahara, Shikuka, Uruppu Jima you can really start to pour it on.



Cap Mandrake -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/7/2016 6:45:47 PM)

You take Shikuka for the airfield (clear hex) and snatch some of the Kuriles and start building. You bring 10+ AKE/AE, AO's and a ton of surface combatants to protect the nascent bases. The carriers hang out in the Sea of Okhotsk or the Northern Pacific and you load a few CVE's with P-38's and P-47's so they can fly off to any AF you capture.

It's nice to have a level 5 AF at Shemya but not absolutely necessary



poodlebrain -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/7/2016 7:05:08 PM)

There are drawbacks to the Kuriles as an objective that give me pause. The first is the proximity to major Japanese bases. The IJN can recycle for combat so much faster than the USN. The effects of winter on base development and operations. The numbers of quality fighters are still low for establishing air superiority since defending against Kamikazes will also be a necessity.



JohnDillworth -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/7/2016 7:10:17 PM)

IWO is of limited use even later in the game. It's annoying, but just not big enough to base a significant number if heavy bombers. Also, not much of a port. The other options would provide better strategic support



crsutton -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/7/2016 7:22:47 PM)

Hmmmmm.... I am starting to get a feel for Dan. He likes to drive deep and grab something big where he can develop multiple supporting bases. Knowing the weakness of KB at this stage, (refitting and repairing) I am betting that he packs up everything he owns in his old suitcase and heads for the PI. That ole boy likes drama. I know he will try something new and big. [;)] We are not dealing with a "girly man" here. So, I will take the 50 to 1 bet......



Insano -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/7/2016 7:24:22 PM)

Put me down for Ulithi / Yap and the base west of Truk in the middle of nowhere - can't remember the name right now.



Flicker -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/7/2016 7:42:24 PM)

I'd like to change my guess from Guam and the Marianas to Guac and the Mariachis.




BillBrown -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/7/2016 8:08:55 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Or maybe it just means a guy wearing loose pants at a "clothing optional" beach ....


I know that guy. One time I was running along the bluff at Black's Beach in La Jolla and there is a UCSD maint. dude in his UCSD uniform sitting in a lawn chair with a big telescope checked out from the Astronomy Department.


He was just checking out the heavenly bodies about.



poodlebrain -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/7/2016 8:34:06 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
Or maybe it just means a guy wearing loose pants at a "clothing optional" beach ....


I know that guy. One time I was running along the bluff at Black's Beach in La Jolla and there is a UCSD maint. dude in his UCSD uniform sitting in a lawn chair with a big telescope checked out from the Astronomy Department.


Speaking of Black's Beach, I wouldn't complain if I had to attend Point Loma Nazarene University. Aside from the prevalent religious fanaticism, if Nazarenes can be called fanatics, there is something to be said for a small private school located so close to the beach with a better than 2:1 ratio of female to male students.



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/7/2016 8:56:17 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

IWO is of limited use even later in the game. It's annoying, but just not big enough to base a significant number if heavy bombets. Also, not much of a port. The other options would provide better strategic support


The value of many islands in the Pac is not in having them but in him not having them.



Cap Mandrake -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/7/2016 9:15:28 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

There are drawbacks to the Kuriles as an objective that give me pause. The first is the proximity to major Japanese bases. The IJN can recycle for combat so much faster than the USN. The effects of winter on base development and operations. The numbers of quality fighters are still low for establishing air superiority since defending against Kamikazes will also be a necessity.


Yes, but there aren't any kamikazes yet. [:)]



obvert -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/7/2016 9:24:44 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake


quote:

ORIGINAL: poodlebrain

There are drawbacks to the Kuriles as an objective that give me pause. The first is the proximity to major Japanese bases. The IJN can recycle for combat so much faster than the USN. The effects of winter on base development and operations. The numbers of quality fighters are still low for establishing air superiority since defending against Kamikazes will also be a necessity.


Yes, but there aren't any kamikazes yet. [:)]



The farther Kuriles and Sakhalin don't trigger kamis. Only the islands closer to Hokkaido. It's measured from Tokyo, 20 hexes I believe (although I think when I drew this several years ago I thought it was 21).

It's notexactly accurate, but it's pretty close, anyway.

[image]local://upfiles/37283/2D3E8FBC5DAA40C98FE334B8652D8CA8.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/7/2016 9:55:15 PM)

Hello, Gents. I've been at the beach today, where we were under a "tropical storm warning" with sunshine and nearly calm seas. Okay.

Once, many years ago, I went for an early morning jog heading northeast towards the rising sun (not that rising sun!). Far in the distance I saw two young men walk onto the beach, strip off their clothes, and run into the ocean. Just my luck. Men.

I'll give one answer regarding Big Tent. NoPac was eliminated immediately. Operation Circus (the invasion of Hokkaido re-routed to the Aluetians) lit a fire under John's seat. For months afterwards, SigInt was lit up with troops diverting to the Aluetians, Hokkaido, etc. Hokkaido is a run target to hit, but only when the enemy isn't expecting it.

I've look at nearly every other possibility out there, from Sumatra to Oz to New Guinea to the Home Islands. I don't think there was a perfect target, but I came up with two the I looked at longest before finally selecting one. You guys are doing a decent job of discussing (and sometimes eliminating) places that are/were under consideration.




poodlebrain -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/7/2016 9:56:51 PM)

Kamikazes are triggered when the Allies capture a base within 20 hexes, by sea, of Tokyo, Takao or Saigon. So only the inner Kuriles will trigger Kamikazes, and only on or after 1Jan1944.



JohnDillworth -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/7/2016 10:21:54 PM)

Hush Dan, Operational security and all [:D]



Cap Mandrake -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/7/2016 10:42:13 PM)

"YOUR ATTENTION PLEASE....please...please FOR THE EIGHTH RACE, THE HIROHITO HANDICAP, HORSE NUMBER 3, PARAMASHIRO HONEY IS SCRATCHED. THANK YOU...you...you"



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