RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (Full Version)

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Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/3/2016 6:13:45 PM)

10/10/43

Flying Trapeze: Japanese subs in wolfpack concentrations effectively attack the Allied fleet, inflicting damage that will warm John's heart deep into the weekend. The day opens with a sub sinking a DE at Wake Island. Another sub puts one TT into CVE Casablance (the sub is then sunk by ASW). Then another subs puts two more fish into the CVE, sending her under. Then subs put a total of four TTs into Wasp, sinking her. There are many ASW attacks during this fray, but only the one that was sunk suffered serious damage. As a result of these attacks, the Allies also lose 100 aircraft aboard ship. (This is a signal day - the first fleet carrier I've lost in many years. John has done a good job vectoring in his subs - and I bet they have very good commanders, darn it.)

SigInt was correct that a Japanese CA was inbound to Wake, though it turned out to be CL Sendai and some DDs bringing in troops. This TF is turned away by CL Phoenix TF, which damages Sendai, slowing her so that Helldivers hit her in the afternoon, apparently sinking her. Another strike claims a Japanese DD. As best I can tell, Wake wasn't reinforced (Sendai showed additional troop losses when she was sunk while retiring).

The Allied invasion TFs end up a hex south of Wake, so that D-Day 2.0 will take place tomorrow. The invasion will feature at least three bombardments. Another slow BB will be embedded with the assault ships. The landings will be combat engineers and Sherman tanks. The Canadian brigade already ashore has recovered from disruption and will deliberate attack. (I left the American RCT ashore because it's recovering rapidly and has a great deal of supply; I've set it to reserve and hope this prevents it from attacking; if not, the disabled troops will be killed, leading to high losses.) I hope that Helldivers set to alternate ground attack will also help disrupt the enemy garrison.

I am not confident about this attack. The six forts and the immense disruption during original D-Day were sobering, even though the enemy AV was adjusted to just 45. My expereince with follow-on invasions and bombardments is that the adjusted AV doesn't seem to drop nearly as much. On the other hand, I don't think John's been able to reinforce and supply might be an issue. If the landings experience any success (such as reducing forts), it'll probably be because of the bombardments and bombings. If I don't get forts to drop, though, I may just pull out my troops. Because if this fresh attack doesn't drop forts, I don't have time to replenish and try again.

I think. I'll weigh all options in a few days. Further sub encounters and exactly how D-Day 2.0 goes will determine what's next.

Death Star will move west, towards Eniwetok, hoping that John will be thinking "Wake" or "east of Wake."

So, on the day, I lose CV Wasp and CVE Casablance. John loses CL Sendai, a DD and a sub. Confirmation also comes in that CVL Chiyoda went down during the late September naval battle (bringing the confirmed total to 2 CV, 2 CVL, and 8 CVE). I think there's one additional CVL confirmation yet to come and there is some hope that another fleet carrier or two might have gone down.

Tough fighting! War. In. The. Pacific. Reluctant Admiral's Edition.



BillBrown -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/3/2016 6:23:32 PM)

I have never seen John III be reluctant.

I am sure there are many "Bonsai" shouts in his thread.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/3/2016 7:20:22 PM)

No doubt! Those are well-earned and most appropriate to his AAR. I'm glad he didn't use them in his emails to me, though he did exhibit some gusto typical of him after victory. :)

Here's two things I'm wrestling with as I begin to issue orders for the next turn:
1. Should I set the Canadian brigade to deliberate attack or shock attack? Fatigue and disruption are low; prep is 100%; and the unit has 111 AV. (The combat engineers and Sherman tanks will auto-shock attack as they land, of course.) I'm leaning towards deliberate attack, but I'm open to your thoughts.

2. How bad does John want to contest this invasion? Would he send in combat ships or even carriers? I don't think so, as he'll fear high losses. But I'll need to mix some combat TFs with the bombardment TFs just in case John does commit a powerful CA TF.




poodlebrain -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/3/2016 7:45:04 PM)

quote:

Should I set the Canadian brigade to deliberate attack or shock attack? Fatigue and disruption are low; prep is 100%; and the unit has 111 AV. (The combat engineers and Sherman tanks will auto-shock attack as they land, of course.) I'm leaning towards deliberate attack, but I'm open to your thoughts.
My understanding is that if one unit makes a shock attack then all units make a shock attack. This is done to justify the (+) combat modifier for a shock attack. I base this on observations of combat involving units that entered a defenders hex without crossing a river being treated as making shock attacks when they are joined in combat by ground units crossing a river into the defender's hex. The combat is resolved as a single event, and it is reported as a shock attack.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/3/2016 7:49:59 PM)

Okay, I can live with that.

But I hope that US RCT set to "reserve" and "do not pursue" won't get involved. If it does, I'll have learned an ugly lesson. :)



poodlebrain -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/3/2016 8:40:08 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Okay, I can live with that.

But I hope that US RCT set to "reserve" and "do not pursue" won't get involved. If it does, I'll have learned an ugly lesson. :)
I honestly do not remember ever trying to put units in reserve when attacking an atoll. I know that units in reserve do not attack when river crossing shock attacks occur.

If you think the U.S. RCT can make a positive contribution to the combat, then I'd recommend including it in the attack applying the adage better safe than sorry. You will want to withdraw it to a major base for recovery in any event.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/3/2016 8:44:00 PM)

I'm going to try it in reserve, based upon a post Hans Bolter made a page or two back. I got the impression. that putting it into reserve mode will accomplish keeping it out of combat (if I misinterpreted Hans's comment, that's on me).

If the attack fails, I probably won't withdraw the Canadians or the combat engineers. I probably will withdraw the Americans and the tank unit.

I intend to pull the trigger on Big Tent in about three weeks (two if things go really well). But there is a fallback plan. If something happens to make Big Tent untenable, then I have lots of units prepping for Roi-Namur, Eniwetok and Marcus. In that case, I would focus on these bases (plus Wake) closer to home.

But that's only if things go seriously awry. My strong preference is to strike deep.



HansBolter -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/3/2016 9:44:34 PM)

Reserve has always worked to keep units out of combat in large land locked sieges in China.

I have to admit that I have never tried it on an atoll to hold a unit back from a mandatory shock triggered by more landing units.

Its a great technique in sieges. If, on the turn you decide to pull the trigger on a deliberate attack to test the waters, the attack fails, the alpha attacking unit takes the brunt of the losses.

You can then shuffle it to reserve while the remainder of your troops recover fatigue and disruption while bombarding, the reserve unit will recover more quickly than it would participating in the bombardments.

That way, after bombarding for 3-5-7 days and you're ready to try another assault, the unit put in reserve may actually be ready to participate again.



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/3/2016 10:16:54 PM)

Putting a unit into reserve will stop it from attacking during a subsequent landing on an atoll, unless you are landing more AV from that unit. Then it will be switched back to combat mode (I think) and participate.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/3/2016 11:12:19 PM)

Thanks, Hans and Lokasena. It sounds it will work. I'll know for sure soon. This is sometimes the best way to learn and have the learning stick.




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/3/2016 11:15:44 PM)

The turn is off with D-Day 2.0. I am skeptical of my chances, but I do think there is a chance. It's a mighty interesting moment no matter what - will the bombardments go in properly, will the Helldivers dive, will the landings go well, will enemy combat ships interfere, will enemy subs strike again, is KB lurking, is enemy supply low, can the attack overcome six forts, etc. It's going to fascinating to watch the replay.

Unless, that is, John spoils the turn and lets the cat out of the bag by saying something like, "You'll have to bring more" or "You'll have to try again." He's really had trouble restraining himself of late, so if he spoils what promises to be an immensely entertaining movie, I'm probably going to let him have it.




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/4/2016 2:56:30 AM)

10/11/43

After two prolonged weeks of excruciating labor, delivery takes place smoothly (well, except for an oddity). This is a pleasant surprise (and John didn't comment in his email, so the movie had no spoilers).

Flying Trapeze: D-Day 2.0 gets off to an auspicious start with back-to-back bombardments that are strong but not nuclear. But then there's no sign of the amphibs, which began the day just one hex from Wake. Holy Cow! I'm thinking. Did I forget to set the TF correctly? During the afternoon phase, the divebombers flew correctly, adding to the damage. Then, finally, the amphibious assault begins at the end of the day (why? what the heck?) with more good bombardments by the embedded BB and CL. The resulting shock attack overwhelms the enemy garrison, which has an adjusted AV of 2. The adjusted Allied AV is 125. The Allies take the base.

Also on the day, Bowfin finishes off CL Sendai with three TTs. Bull Halsey led his combat TF in a charge to the north, but doesn't find his prey (perhaps it was Sendai). Fortunately, his TF isn't targeted by enemy aircraft.

Lots of good empty TFs at Wake will immediately load the combat engineers, tanks and US RCT for transport to Pearl. The Canadians will remain at Wake. TF carrying combat engineers and base force is with the carriers, so will move to Wake tomorrow. The carriers will remain close for at least one more turn to provide cover. But some of the depleted combat TFs will begin the journey to Pearl. With lots of enemy subs in the area, the op isn't over.

This is a pretty important conquest. It flanks the Marshalls and opens the door to places like Marcus, the Bonins and the Marianas. Points far to the SE become even less relevant. So I think John will turn his full attention to the places...while I'm looking elsewhere. But Wake was an enemy blockhouse situated on nearly any route of attack, so taking it is also important from that standpoint.

I have a few things underway intended to keep John focused on CenPac.

Big Tent: The sudden fall of Wake should allow Big Tent to proceed on its original schedule. It will take the carriers a good ten days to return to Pearl, where Enterprise, Hornet and South Dakota will likewise be ready in ten days. The last inbound troop TF is 42 hexes from Pearl - probably six or eight days. So embarkation date might well be in two weeks.

Elsewhere: Recon shows no troops (or next to none) at Koumac, Noumea, Efate, and Tanna, and just a small force at Luganville. I'm going to risk a small TF with a few assault troops to see if John is hoping to ambush me while I'm hoping to strike into what I think is a vacuum. I don't need SoPac in particular right now, so I don't want to risk good assets, but I also don't mind picking up bases on the cheap.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/45E1F151ACF64F3DB68C323F87B15B70.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/4/2016 3:06:12 AM)

John probably figures that I'm figuring out atoll invasions a bit. With the fall of Wake, he has to look at some of his island holdings and know that he has little chance to stop a determined Allied attack. Marcus, in particular, will worry him.

As his focus turns to Marcus, the Bonins, the Marianas, what does he think about all those troops he crammed into Tabituea, Kwajalein, Eniwetok, Ponape, Kusaie, etc? Does he value them as bulwarks or does he fear that they are now out on a limb?



[image]local://upfiles/8143/AB5136C28CBB4B11A0BD86BF0E7CA082.jpg[/image]



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/4/2016 3:57:26 AM)

The reason the amphibs did not unload during the first phases is because they occur before the first movement phase. TFs that begin unloading in that first "TF Loading/Unloading" phase will continue to do so during the second one that follows the movement phase during the night. Because we know there are only 2 unload phases, and it shows 4 times during the replay, I've always assumed that instances 2 and 4 are just there to abstract continuous CD gunfire or some such.

There is then another chance for TFs to initiate unloading prior to the air phase, which I assume is what you saw. Or perhaps even at the end of the turn (I may be off on which of the daytime unloading phases is "real").



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/4/2016 4:16:29 AM)

Loka, comprehension of plainly written English totally failed me. I know you explained what happened in a logical way that sensible person should comprehend...

...but I have no idea what you just said!

My amphibious TF was just one hex from Wake but didn't unload during the early landings phase. It waited until a latter phase after nearly everything else (except combat) was finished. I can't figure out why. The only possibility could be that one or more ships slowed things down by refueling, but I don't think any were that low on fuel.



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/4/2016 8:05:42 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Loka, comprehension of plainly written English totally failed me. I know you explained what happened in a logical way that sensible person should comprehend...

...but I have no idea what you just said!

My amphibious TF was just one hex from Wake but didn't unload during the early landings phase. It waited until a latter phase after nearly everything else (except combat) was finished. I can't figure out why. The only possibility could be that one or more ships slowed things down by refueling, but I don't think any were that low on fuel.

I think in the first "unloading report" the AI is figuring out losses and disruption from getting into the boats and unloading in the surf and CD guns firing at transports. This is where preparation plays a big part in the calculations. The report will mention equipment dropped in the water and such. I think ship grounding is also announced in this period)

In the second report in the same phase (night or day) the AI is calculating losses from defensive fire on the beach. This will look like a normal combat report with losses for both sides. (I think this is where embedded fire support ships can cause some enemy casualties).

The process repeats in the afternoon naval session and at the very end of the day phase after the air phases are over.




Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/4/2016 8:07:03 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Loka, comprehension of plainly written English totally failed me. I know you explained what happened in a logical way that sensible person should comprehend...

...but I have no idea what you just said!

My amphibious TF was just one hex from Wake but didn't unload during the early landings phase. It waited until a latter phase after nearly everything else (except combat) was finished. I can't figure out why. The only possibility could be that one or more ships slowed things down by refueling, but I don't think any were that low on fuel.


I think it's because, in order to unload in the first part of the day, you need to already be in the hex. Any movement at all means only one phase of unloading - in the afternoon.

I'm 90% sure.



obvert -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/4/2016 8:49:57 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Loka, comprehension of plainly written English totally failed me. I know you explained what happened in a logical way that sensible person should comprehend...

...but I have no idea what you just said!

My amphibious TF was just one hex from Wake but didn't unload during the early landings phase. It waited until a latter phase after nearly everything else (except combat) was finished. I can't figure out why. The only possibility could be that one or more ships slowed things down by refueling, but I don't think any were that low on fuel.


I think it's because, in order to unload in the first part of the day, you need to already be in the hex. Any movement at all means only one phase of unloading - in the afternoon.

I'm 90% sure.


I'm pretty sure that ships unload during the night phase if they reach destination during the night phase. Actually, thinking on it, I just had it happen from two hexes out and they unloaded at night and during the day. I'll be posting the CR in my AAR in a bit.



JocMeister -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/4/2016 9:35:14 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
I'm pretty sure that ships unload during the night phase if they reach destination during the night phase. Actually, thinking on it, I just had it happen from two hexes out and they unloaded at night and during the day. I'll be posting the CR in my AAR in a bit.


Unless something changed recently they will unload during the night even if moving.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/4/2016 10:26:04 AM)

10/12/43

Flying Trapeze: A mostly quiet day as Allied TFs at Wake are busy loading units heading home to Pearl and unloading engineers and base force personnel. Thus far TFs that departed haven't encountered any enemy subs. The carriers have refueled and will begin the move to Pearl tomorrow.

There is a Lost Patrol out there. Halsey ignored orders and steamed five hexes closer to Marcus. Judys sortied, many were downed, but did manage one hit on CL Montpelier. I've converted the TF to "Escort" hoping that this will force Halsey's hand. He's been ordered back towards Wake, though he'll continue on towards Pearl.

Big Tent: The "last" of the troops transports inbound from West Coast is 37 hexes out from Pearl. I think things are on schedule to depart around October 25. I expect this armada to be away for the balance of the year and possibly into early '44. It's a big undertaking. A Big Tent undertaking.

Operation Carnival: I hope to have one more small surprise for John in a few days. I'll continue to monitor IJA garrison levels in and close to the islands to see if John is showing any signs of the "yips" as a result of Wake's fall, or is he firmly committed to defending this far out?

Operation Family Reunion: My family and I are heading to South Carolina today to attend a family reunion. I'll be away until next Saturday, though I will borrow my children's laptops from time to time to check in on the forums. I'm glad pre-vacation didn't end with the loss of Wasp and Casablanca. The fall of Wake Island softened the sting considerably.

Thanks for reading and giving tips. You can tell I employed quite a few recently. Two observations:

1. Amphibious TFs definitely will unload early even if moving several hexes. I have no idea what delayed the one moving the one hex to Wake. That was very odd.

2. The RCT in reserve at Wake did not participate in the attack. (Thanks, Hans!) That's a handy thing to know.



crsutton -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/4/2016 4:01:58 PM)

Pity about the loss of your two carriers to subs but "war is heck" and even the Japanese deserve a good day now and then. You probably should be sinking more of his subs but perhaps John is more crafty about their use than I have experienced. Years ago, I think it was The Elf who recommended setting one bomber air group on 90% ASW and set the range to zero. This results in multiple air attacks in your carrier's hex and a super high DL which limits the subs ability to attack. It also causes both your escorts and neighboring ASW TFs to react and attack. I have used it many times to good effect. The downside is that you are taking a strike group out of action but at this stage I don't think you will see enemy carriers. Any squadron with good to average ASW skills will work.



SuluSea -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/4/2016 9:52:44 PM)

Good job with Wake. I was believing it would give you a little bit more trouble. I'm thinking with the additional
bonuses the Japanese player gets with this mod your experiences attacking atolls will serve you well going forward
with both this game and futures. My comments have been limited because I've been looking at the other side but
again, been enjoying your progress and writing!




quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton


Years ago, I think it was The Elf who recommended setting one bomber air group on 90% ASW
and set the range to zero. This results in multiple air attacks in your carrier's hex and a super high DL which
limits the subs ability to attack. It also causes both your escorts and neighboring ASW TFs to react and attack.
I have used it many times to good effect. The downside is that you are taking a strike group out of action but
at this stage I don't think you will see enemy carriers. Any squadron with good to average ASW skills will work.


This definitely works...

I've used this technique on more than one occasion when the Japan player has an area saturated
I used all bombers when I was certain KB wasn't around. Do that occasionally and he'll more than likely thin the
herd.

I'm dying to see big tent....[:)][image]http://www.navydep.com/forums/images/smilies/thpopcornsmile.gif[/image]

Have a great vacation!



Crackaces -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/5/2016 1:05:47 PM)

In the early years the US Torps are borked so I found pilots with the better ASW skills to man the torpedo bombers
but at range of 2 (meaning 1 when the ASW modifiers were applied) .. the zero range idea makes sense ..especially how the turn sequence works ..



quote:

ORIGINAL: SuluSea

Good job with Wake. I was believing it would give you a little bit more trouble. I'm thinking with the additional
bonuses the Japanese player gets with this mod your experiences attacking atolls will serve you well going forward
with both this game and futures. My comments have been limited because I've been looking at the other side but
again, been enjoying your progress and writing!




quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton


Years ago, I think it was The Elf who recommended setting one bomber air group on 90% ASW
and set the range to zero. This results in multiple air attacks in your carrier's hex and a super high DL which
limits the subs ability to attack. It also causes both your escorts and neighboring ASW TFs to react and attack.
I have used it many times to good effect. The downside is that you are taking a strike group out of action but
at this stage I don't think you will see enemy carriers. Any squadron with good to average ASW skills will work.


This definitely works...

I've used this technique on more than one occasion when the Japan player has an area saturated
I used all bombers when I was certain KB wasn't around. Do that occasionally and he'll more than likely thin the
herd.

I'm dying to see big tent....[:)][image]http://www.navydep.com/forums/images/smilies/thpopcornsmile.gif[/image]

Have a great vacation!


quote:

Years ago, I think it was The Elf who recommended setting one bomber air group on 90% ASW and set the range to zero. This results in multiple air attacks in your carrier's hex and a super high DL which limits the subs ability to attack. It also causes both your escorts and neighboring ASW TFs to react and attack. I have used it many times to good effect. The downside is that you are taking a strike group out



Cap Mandrake -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/5/2016 3:59:01 PM)

I missed a few pages. I'm guessing only one person knows what "Big Tent" is. [:)]

The easiest early approach to the HI for the Allies is via the Kuriles and Sakhalin in my opinion. You can get to within 12 hexes before being spotted (usually). With the right materiel you can smash Paramashiro AF on day 1 of your attack and there are lots of places to land that are usually not well garrisoned.




BillBrown -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/5/2016 4:34:26 PM)

I think Big Tent is Raboul. But I have been wrong every time so far.



Flicker -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/5/2016 8:32:18 PM)

Thanks for the big picture map. OK, so your next target may not be Luzon. However Guam and the Marianas seem to fit the timeline, with a little attention also being paid to Marcus Island. Taking the Marianas leaves much of the Empire's holdings from New Guinea east hanging out.



JeffroK -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/5/2016 9:33:14 PM)

Iwo Jima, I've seen CR at work before!



JohnDillworth -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/5/2016 10:07:44 PM)

quote:

Iwo Jima, I've seen CR at work before!

makes sense. The advantage now can be exploited by staying away from interlocking airfields. I like Truk. not as close or as daring as Iwo, but more useful. Truk, with Allied engineers and support ships is a prize and it's capture makes the entire SW pacific a large POW camp



Mike McCreery -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/5/2016 10:11:32 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

Iwo Jima, I've seen CR at work before!

makes sense. The advantage now can be exploited by staying away from interlocking airfields. I like Truk. not as close or as daring as Iwo, but more useful. Truk, with Allied engineers and support ships is a prize and it's capture makes the entire SW pacific a large POW camp


Truk is such a hard nut to crack though... The high fort levels make LBA attacks on the infantry ineffective.



BillBrown -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (6/5/2016 10:21:04 PM)

I like Raboul because he can spread out in all directions and clear up his sea lanes.



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