RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (Full Version)

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Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/1/2016 6:47:01 PM)

Thanks for the steadying hand, gents.

It is unlikely I'll deviate from the mission. The carriers will not abandon the herd. And the herd can't outrun danger. The herd needs to be productive, and that means one of two things: (1) unload supply and support troops (especially at Sorong) or (2) carry on with offensive ops around Ceram. I don't want to come under attack while amphibious ops are underway, so if KB is inbound, I'll concentrate on logistic (supply delivery). If KB is loiternig far away, I'll move on Ceram.

The hard stuff is coming, but what a start: three days, three major targets invaded, three complete divisions landed plus lots of good support. That's something to build on.

John is probably a mixture of excited at perceived opportunties and rattled at what's unfolding.




witpqs -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/1/2016 7:14:14 PM)

There is also efficiency to consider - more efficient to finish unloading what is needed rather than moving on and them moving back. If Ceram were time sensitive that equation might be different. But now you can unload all, move to Ceram and unload all, then your only leash is protecting ships that you can move as you please.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/1/2016 7:37:56 PM)

Right. This is an opening balancing act. Between these calls, which was right? Which would you have made?

1. At the opening move rapidly into the "void," taking bases before John can react and throw together defenses and bring in reinforcements. This is a "shock and awe and opportunity" approach that rattles the enemy and seizes the opportunity, but at the expense of thorough attention to the bases taken for the first days or week.

2. Move more deliberately, taking care to land enough supply and troops so that the bases taken are operational as soon as possible and aren't at risk from any early counterattacks. This leads to security (of a sort) but allows John to bring in reinforcements, possibly save bases he would've lost, and might place his perimeter closer to the important Allied bases than otherwise would have been the case.

I chose the first course. At some point - maybe now, maybe after Ceram - I have to turn my full attention to delivery of supply and reinforcements. That's why I planned on being here for two months.

Now John has three choices:

1. Commit to aggressive action to throw the defenders back into the sea. I think this is his best option. If he did manage to win a carrier battle, my bases could be isolated and defeated. His window to do this is a narrow one. The downside for him is that he risks his carriers and also his real weakness - capital ships.

2. Concede the current Big Tent AOO and move expeditiously to prepare a new line of defense in Borneo, Manado, Mindanao. This is conservative and has merit. The disadvantage is that it allows Big Tent to succeed with all the accompanying repurcussions.

3. Fail to Recognize what's happening and pursue the current course of action: John might think he's still the aggressor with a wagon train surrounded in Apachee territory. Under this scenario, he continues to build up bases around the Big Tent AOO (Aitape, Hollandia, Dili, Koepang, Kendari, Wolei, etc.) and hopes that LBA, subs and small combat TFs can inflict great damage while avoiding committing his carriers.

There may be various permutations of these. Do you see other options? If mine are on target, which one do you think he chooses? IMO, 1 and 2 offer him the best chances. 3, I think, is a disaster for him.



witpqs -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/1/2016 7:48:34 PM)

quote:

This is an opening balancing act. Between these calls, which was right? Which would you have made?

I agree with the decision in your prior post - now is the time to unload the support troops and stuff to get the bases on their way to being operational.

If you have troops along that are preparing for Ceram their preparation will only increase. And due to the distance of the journey, their fatigue and disruption are probably maxed out already so no matter. Plus no shock attack required, so they can rest after landing. In other words, you can get stuff unloaded AND then go for Ceram. The KB can't stop you.



witpqs -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/1/2016 7:49:38 PM)

Adding - I mean the stuff with you now, I don't mean additional convoys that are not on station now.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/1/2016 8:02:50 PM)

Yes. I have tremendous amounts of supply and fuel to unload even though John has culled the herd a bit. It's going to take a long time, but it's as meaningful (though not as exciting) as the invasions themselves. It will be tremendously satisfying to see bases flush with troops and supply (Sorong especially - it's the key to the whole thing).

The three major targets already have full garrisons, but only Sorong has an acceptable amount of supply. I risked leaving some merchants there without CAP to make sure that base, above all others, isn't in a weakened state.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/1/2016 8:29:03 PM)

Pardon me for going on and on and on in infinite detail, but it's fun to do so though you may opt out. :)

One of the little behind-the-scenes things that went on over the past three turns that may or may not be important but which helped me sleep better:

Big Tent Day One: all DDs replenished fuel.
Big Tent Day Two: all CLAAs and CAs replenished fuel.
Big Tent Day Three: most CVEs, all CVLs and two CVs replenished fuel (all the other carriers were in good shape).

Thus Death Star is capable of sustained maneuvers at sea should an occasion arise.



jwolf -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/1/2016 8:32:22 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Big Tent Day One: all DDs replenished fuel.
Big Tent Day Two: all CLAAs and CAs replenished fuel.
Big Tent Day Three: most CVEs, all CVLs and two CVs replenished fuel (all the other carriers were in good shape).

Thus Death Star is capable of sustained maneuvers at sea should an occasion arise.


You're absolutely right IMHO to pay careful attention to such details. I speculate that your opponent doesn't or didn't and that may be one reason he was caught in a bad position during the big naval battle near Wake.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/1/2016 9:12:59 PM)

Is there any wonkiness when TFs, especially carriers, move through the light-colored ocean hexes?

It's going to happen soon. Is it bad to move through them? Is it bad to take station in one of them?

Does it enhance enemy sub or combat ship effectiveness in the event of combat? Does it detract from carrier performance in any way?

In my game vs. Miller seven years ago, we had a huge campaign in these waters. My memory is that the light-colored water didn't have any effect on flight ops or navigation but that it did somehow influence surface combat engagements, possibly subs, and possibly PT boat stuff?



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/1/2016 9:14:19 PM)

What old AE match was it that carriers and PT boats clashed near Ceram to devastating effect for the carriers. Was it Cuttlefish vs. Q-Ball?



HansBolter -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/1/2016 9:16:10 PM)

Coastal hexes are your best friend when subs are about.

Coastal hexes with ports should be avoided with the Death Star as it will half flight ops.

CVEs are exempt from this effect though.



Cap Mandrake -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/1/2016 10:01:04 PM)

quote:

Amphibious Assault at Morotai (80,101)

TF 340 troops unloading over beach at Morotai, 80,101

Allied ground losses:
440 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 70 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 93 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 32 (0 destroyed, 32 disabled)
Vehicles lost 60 (1 destroyed, 59 disabled)

Motorized Support lost from landing craft during unload of 5th Indian Div /3
12 Naval Support troops lost overboard during unload of 227th USN Base Force /2


Why were there so many disruptions? Is 5th Indian Div equipped with sorongs? Was one of these units not prepped for Morotai?



Cap Mandrake -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/1/2016 10:06:42 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Is there any wonkiness when TFs, especially carriers, move through the light-colored ocean hexes?

It's going to happen soon. Is it bad to move through them? Is it bad to take station in one of them?

Does it enhance enemy sub or combat ship effectiveness in the event of combat? Does it detract from carrier performance in any way?

In my game vs. Miller seven years ago, we had a huge campaign in these waters. My memory is that the light-colored water didn't have any effect on flight ops or navigation but that it did somehow influence surface combat engagements, possibly subs, and possibly PT boat stuff?



--Enemy subs are MORE vulnerable in shallow hexes.
--Your TF will be spotted if an occupied enemy hex
--You will be much more vulnerable to surface intercepts because the geography makes your path more predictable
--Damaged ships may have more difficult escape routes.
--Mines



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/1/2016 10:47:36 PM)

Sabang


Sorong

Deją vu?



JeffroK -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/1/2016 10:58:35 PM)

Your position reminds me of some historical battle...........

Dien Bien Phu anyone?



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/1/2016 11:04:47 PM)

Jeff, is that the one in which the French motorcade on Route 1 was ambushed and destroyed? If so, am I the French? (I have to seek clarification on your comment as sometimes I don't get the obvious.)



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/1/2016 11:06:15 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Sabang


Sorong

Deją vu?


That's what John thinks, judging by his recent AAR titles: "Sumatra '43."

I mentioned a page or two back that Sorong is closer to Sabang than it is to Wake Island. Is it one of those "I shall return!" things?



JeffroK -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/1/2016 11:08:21 PM)

No, they dropped paras deep in indian country to interdict LOC and to draw Viet Minh troops into a decisive battle. Instead they were beseiged, finally surrendered another mortal blow to the French presence in Indo China.

I think you are recalling "Rue de la joie", The Street without Joy.




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/1/2016 11:10:48 PM)

Ah, so do you think I've parachuted into Indian country where I'll be surrounded and destroyed?

That's my worst nightmare, of course. It's possible, but I don't think that will happen. I hope.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/1/2016 11:27:27 PM)

Thanks, gents, for the info and insights about shallow water naval ops.



JohnDillworth -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/1/2016 11:44:33 PM)

quote:

Ah, so do you think I've parachuted into Indian country where I'll be surrounded and destroyed?

That's my worst nightmare, of course. It's possible, but I don't think that will happen. I hope.


Just for giggles, what ships have shown up in the last month or so while you were on this adventure? Does it make up what was lost on the trip? what does the the CV/CVL queue look like? How many Fletchers and subs in the next 3 months?



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/1/2016 11:59:06 PM)

Interesting question, John. The herd is a mighty herd, but the cupboard isn't bare elsewhere. In addition to the combat ships involved in Big Tent, there are these major assets:

1. Three CVEs in Oz with a large contingent of DDs, CAs and one BB. This herd is moving north now, just in case a need arises to force a passage near Horn Island (if the worst happens to Big Tent and a route of egress was needed). This group will be involved in Third Ring.

2. Pearl Harbor and the Marshalls host a growing number of combat ships, including two CVE and a CVL, a fast BB and two slow BBs, and a decent complement of cruisers and destroyers.

3. The Aleutians are covered by two Fletcher TFs, one augmented by CL Honolulu. Winter is almost here.

4. Ceylon has some combat ships. Not enough to do anything fancy.

The culling of the herd has thus far been no more than nuisance level. CL Birmingham is back at Pearl and will be ready for action in three weeks. I've lost an APA (mostly empty) and an AK. I've lost perhaps 15 xAKs and an xAP and TK or two. These losses have had no effect on the troops present and no appreciable impact on supply or fuel availability.

Big Tent is off to a great start at minimal loss. John has to stop it or it will succeed in what it set out to do.



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/2/2016 12:01:41 AM)

This is mid November 1943. I don't have this scenario but I think CR said there was a lull in carrier arrivals until early 1944.

EDIT: D'oh - shoulda known CR would be typing a reply while I was too. I must train myself to check the "Who's online" listing before responding. [:-]



Bif1961 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/2/2016 12:05:52 AM)

The situation has no been reversed, he was deep in your area of operation and under constant recon while you remained unlocated. You chose when and where to strike his forces after they were over extended and retiring. He will bide his time and pick location, time after you have been whittled down and he has repaired all of the KB he can. He may counter-land at what he considers the most valuable target and the center of gravity. The longer you stay the more you allow him to finalize his plan and prepare for his counter-stroke. Finish your landings, off-load what you can and pull back, refit and return at your choosing. Don't allow him time to dictate the next battle.



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/2/2016 12:15:02 AM)

CR plans for a two-month stay ... which means he brought enough support to replenish his CVs as soon as he gets a port. He does not need to cut and run IMO.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/2/2016 12:16:55 AM)

None of that's going to happen, Bif. That isn't the situation here.

Temporarily, the Allies don't have airfields to put up land-based CAP. That will soon change and the northern Oz airfields are brimming with fighters ready to move in. More importantly short term, I already have three PBY bases operational and will have at least three more tomorrow. John can still slip up since nav search is never perfect, but I doubt he get carriers in without detection (which is what happened to him at Wake Island).

John doesn't have airfields close enough to contribute meaningfully unless I venture close to one of them at the same time KB strikes. That's not my intention. If he seeks battle close to Sorong or Manikwari, his LBA is far away. He's short on capital ships and his carriers took a hit. And carrier battle is a big role of the dice for him. He can't afford to lose carriers, but losses in CAs and BBs will really hurt him.

He can re-invade minor targets that are weakly held, but he's not going to have much success against well-prepped divisions at Morotai, Manikwari and Sorong. And how's he going to reach them unless he first wins a carrier battle?

And if he does invade and we engage in surface combat, he can't afford to lose BBs and CAs recapturing a few bases if I still have a bunch.

Unless I see an oddity on the map that shocks me, the herd will remain in place to deliver supply and troops and to eventually move on other targets.

He can try wait for me to retire and then pounce, but I'm not going anywhere for weeks or months while bases build and air cover comes in (unless John manages to retake all these bases or suppress all construction - which he can't do unless he first gets rid of my carriers). And when and if I do move into the Gulf of Carpentaria, he can't come after me unless he's down around Kendari...and if he's down there I can go down the north coast of New Guinea.

The situation is complicated and fluid and can change dramatically, but this is not the mirror image of the Battle of Wake Island. This is more a duplicate of the invasion of the Marshalls in which the Allies took multiple bases, built them large, and John declined to approach them with his carriers, but when his BBs came close they were damaged.

My bases aren't operational yet, but the clock is ticking. John has to act fast or this becomes Marshalls 2.0.






Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/2/2016 12:19:32 AM)

Marshalls 2.0 with this difference - the nest of Allied bases is something like 1,500 miles closer to the DEI and Japan.

The ball is in his court.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/2/2016 12:26:59 AM)

Correction: Big Tent AOO is about 2,500 miles closer to the DEI and the Home Islands than the Marshalls were.

Morotai is 42 hexes from Okinawa, 17 hexes from Balikpapan, and 10 hexes from Davao. Morotai is my most exposed base (well, when the troops take it tomorrow). Sorong is a bit further from those targets, but not much.

Is John looking at this as an opportunity or as a grave threat? Is he using good judgment in what he can do with limited assets? Does he think that Death Star will have to retire soon to give him an opportunity? Or is he committed to seeking decisive battle no matter what, in which case I probably have a 50/50 chance and he'll surely lose carriers, battleships, and cruisers that are already in short supply.

I can lose this operation. But I'm building the breastworks that John is going to have to hurl himself against. Will he dawdle like Ewell? Will he attack rashly like Hood? Or is Stonewall on the way?

Or am I the one who is deluded?

P.S. This can't be Sumatra '43. John can't land an army and advance one base at a time down roads to recapture Allied positions. He has to organize separate amphibious ops for each base. It's hard for Japan to invade after March 31, 1942. How in the world is he going to address multiple bases with large garrisons well-prepped?



witpqs -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/2/2016 12:37:12 AM)

Can we get pictures of the breastworks when they are finished?

Just trying to get that in before Mandrake. [:'(]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (7/2/2016 12:38:26 AM)

How 'bout a photo of my swimming the 100 breaststroke in 1979 in my Speedo?



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