RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (Full Version)

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Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/8/2017 3:22:19 PM)

There have been a lot of good guesses and plenty of the kind of analysis you'd expect from veterans.

Selection of the primary targets five or six months ago was made with the Japanese navy in mind. That emphasis is even more important today. Should John indeed lose an important naval battle, he's going to have trouble stopping anything anywhere. But while he still has a credible naval force (as he does today), his penchant for aggressiveness can cause some problems.

The targets selected are, I think, important enough to force John's hand, but are fairly reasonable. That reasonableness is what should give me the latitude to focus on John's navy, if he commits it.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/8/2017 3:58:48 PM)

3/24/44

A good and productive day across the map, with one irritating little exception involving an upgrading carrier at Townsville. New and exciting details shown on map. And if you order now, we'll pay shipping and handling.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/A422FAAF0DBD4F79BDAE1F7BF37D6887.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/8/2017 4:15:47 PM)

SigInt usually provides helpful puzzle pieces. (SigInt is one of the most fun aspects of the game, at least for an Allied player.)

[image]local://upfiles/8143/9002241877C941F2BD24AC3FE07C8E14.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/8/2017 4:31:24 PM)

The biggest decision I made in the game was in January 1943, to leave Sumatra to stand on its own while shifting almost the entire Allied army and navy to the West Coast.

The second biggest decision was made a year later: how to merge the Hawaii and DEI components for Fun House.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/67242B09485E45148E90A1674390DF42.jpg[/image]



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/8/2017 7:53:36 PM)

I think originally you intended to sneak DS South then West past John's holdings in the Gilberts and Marshalls (which probably do not have much in the way of search by now) and swing up to Hawaii or Johnston Is. to refuel and then join your new "thundering herd".

With the unexpected upgrade of two carriers imposing a 10 day delay you now need to go north more directly. If you do that between the Marshalls and the Solomons your intentions will be obvious. But if you go back into the Fun House theatre and then blast out to the NE (as your arrow shows) it will look like you are trying to relieve John's pressure on Carousel/Fun House or just seeking battle with KB, or even clearing a path along the east side of the Philippines for an attack there.

The itty bitty problem is that KB has disappeared again.



crsutton -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/8/2017 9:28:45 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Operating those bombers out of China means you have to pump in lots of supply to avoid starving the Army. Need a good SLOC for that.


Dan always takes a couple mil with him and with Rangoon soon to be open it should not be a problem. Thing is, John's position in China is so awkward. It is just too tempting. In fact, now that I have broached it, if Dan does not do it I will have to question his manhood...[:D]



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/8/2017 10:45:52 PM)

If those units in China are nearly starving (and they usually are) they will not have filled out TOE and will have low morale.
It will take six months of supply convoys to Rangoon to get them in decent shape for an offensive. More than anything they will need AA guns and anti-tank guns (or allied tanks). I think Dan's shipping is already tied up supporting his deep penetrations.
Maybe the Chinese front could be broken open in 8 months after Indochina is cleared.



witpqs -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/8/2017 11:18:34 PM)

I do not think adequate supply will flow from Rangoon into China for either land operations alone or a heavy bomber offensive. See my ARR for one example. (Shameless self plug! [:D])



Flicker -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/8/2017 11:32:53 PM)

TOKYO!

Taking Yokohama and Tokyo would gut Japan's engine manufacturing, as well as providing 850 points and 7500 points to the Allies. Plus John might consider surrender.

My next wildest guess is Shanghai, worth 1500 points to the Allies and provides the opportunity to link up with Chinese. The port and airfield can be built to 9/9 and it has a 50 repair shipyard.

What I would like to see is Keijo to Mukden, mostly to see if the Russians can be triggered by Dan killing off the Manchukuo army.



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/9/2017 12:25:22 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

SigInt usually provides helpful puzzle pieces. (SigInt is one of the most fun aspects of the game, at least for an Allied player.)

[image]local://upfiles/8143/9002241877C941F2BD24AC3FE07C8E14.jpg[/image]


Idunno, sometimes it's moderately annoying. A couple of turns ago I got multiple, duplicate messages that Hakodate Fortress was located at Hakodate. Really?! I didn't know that! You've got an example in here, too.

Not that I'm complaining, but the extreme random nature of it is nuts sometimes. If I had to guess on how it's coded, it's a random on how many report lines you'll get in a turn and then it runs through a function that many times to fill out each line, drawing from the list of all LCUs or all bases (IIRC the game is coded in C or C++. I'm intimately familiar with linked lists in that context.). The radio transmissions bits might work differently. Heavy activity definitely seems to increase the chance that the enemy will pick up the transmissions.



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/9/2017 12:27:44 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I do not think adequate supply will flow from Rangoon into China for either land operations alone or a heavy bomber offensive. See my ARR for one example. (Shameless self plug! [:D])


I agree most enthusiastically, with slight exceptions. When it's not monsoon season, you might be able to draw plenty of supply up to Lashio, from which it might be able to flow to Paoshan and points east. Maybe. Dirt roads are poor at propagating supply steadily (although there seems to be no limit to a one-time push of supply; I had over 1M fuel/supply transfer down to Singapore in a single day from Rangoon/Chittagong which doesn't even have a complete road down the peninsula - seriously).

Coming up from Indochina into China, however...



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/9/2017 12:29:47 AM)

Apologies for the string of posts, but there's too much to weigh in on here and I've been away from the forums for a few days...

quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Operating those bombers out of China means you have to pump in lots of supply to avoid starving the Army. Need a good SLOC for that.


Dan always takes a couple mil with him and with Rangoon soon to be open it should not be a problem. Thing is, John's position in China is so awkward. It is just too tempting. In fact, now that I have broached it, if Dan does not do it I will have to question his manhood...[:D]


The trouble with doing it next is that Luzon and Formosa are presumably well-defended and with stockpiles of supply. Unless he were prepared to do both in one go (and it's too early in the OOB to be able to do that IMO), he'd have a beachhead in southern China that would be extremely vulnerable to disruption the instant his navy had to sail south for replenishment. If the IJN were out of the equation, then sure, but it's not. Just my basic assessment.



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/9/2017 12:50:33 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The biggest decision I made in the game was in January 1943, to leave Sumatra to stand on its own while shifting almost the entire Allied army and navy to the West Coast.

The second biggest decision was made a year later: how to merge the Hawaii and DEI components for Fun House.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/67242B09485E45148E90A1674390DF42.jpg[/image]


Well, your arrows point to Bonins + Daito. I'm still not convinced you aren't heading for Legaspi/Naga and Aparri, though. So I'll say that your ambitious target would be Luzon, with perhaps a jab at Daito. Your more practical target would be the Marianas, especially given your goal of hitting John's navy. He can't delay in the Marianas without committing ships.

The China part of this map, since you have left all dots on, amuses me. What a pretty little arc. It reminds me of a good Midwestern storm system [:'(]. The whole bow echo and everything. Seriously, look: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bow_Echo_Kansas_City.jpg. I miss those storms. Maryland weather is boring as hell.



BillBrown -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/9/2017 3:27:48 AM)

I suppose he could land on Honshu. That would get a response out of John. [8D]



Jellicoe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/9/2017 8:23:45 AM)

I don't believe it will be Marianas. With the Marshalls more or less in allied hands that is the front line and John will have fortified them heavily, and anyway Mr. C doesn't do 'front lines'

My vote is Formosa and the Ryuku chain. Cuts off the oil, makes a whole load of bases irrelevant and provides an opportunity to support a resurgent China or link up with Big Tent area via Palawan, North borneo and sulu sea.

Inevitably I will be wrong but this is compulsive viewing.



Encircled -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/9/2017 11:42:54 AM)

Signit can be faked, but its a massive clue in the allies in '42 where the Japanese steam roller is heading.

Still think Luzon btw!



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/9/2017 1:42:11 PM)

SigInt can be useless or misleading ... or rich and helpful. But SigInt combined with reconnaissance, naval search, enemy base-building activity, detection levels, enemy force distribution, proclivities of your opponent, and enemy reconnaissance and naval search is information...and information is the most important aspect of the game, IMO.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/9/2017 1:50:49 PM)

A dozen times over the past few weeks, I've worked on posts to describe how Hawaii Fun House forces and DEI Fun House forces merge seamlessly and with minimal threat of defeat in detail. And each time I do, I shrug.

I shrug because I realize I'm making a lot of noise over something that's just routine common sense to AE veterans.

So, each time, I've discarded the post, including once last night and once this morning.

Rather than posting a long narrative about how the forces merge, it's many advantages, it's one disadvantage, and how I handled the latter ... I'll just keep posting as usual and the plan, in all its simplicity and blandness, will gradually unfold.

Fun House isn't sexy or exciting. But it is, I believe, well conceived, thoroughly planned, and off to a smooth and encouraging start. And things are going to begin moving very vast in about three or four turns.



crsutton -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/9/2017 3:28:55 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Apologies for the string of posts, but there's too much to weigh in on here and I've been away from the forums for a few days...

quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Operating those bombers out of China means you have to pump in lots of supply to avoid starving the Army. Need a good SLOC for that.


Dan always takes a couple mil with him and with Rangoon soon to be open it should not be a problem. Thing is, John's position in China is so awkward. It is just too tempting. In fact, now that I have broached it, if Dan does not do it I will have to question his manhood...[:D]


The trouble with doing it next is that Luzon and Formosa are presumably well-defended and with stockpiles of supply. Unless he were prepared to do both in one go (and it's too early in the OOB to be able to do that IMO), he'd have a beachhead in southern China that would be extremely vulnerable to disruption the instant his navy had to sail south for replenishment. If the IJN were out of the equation, then sure, but it's not. Just my basic assessment.


It has been a while but in my last campaign I sprang a sneak offensive from the north and recaptured Chunking. As soon as I did that all of my destroyed Chinese units regenerated and sufficient supply was pulled from Burma for all of them to go into action. Really should not happen but it did. But my point is that the Allied player can pull off a massive operation and dump millions of supply with it. Just bring every ship you have. This is Dan's forte and we saw the legendary Greyjoy do the same with his invasion of Hokkaido. All of this should not be possible but it is and Dan had done a massive invasion of China in the past. I know it is crazy talk but what the hell? It would be fun to watch and make for a great AAR. Come on Dan-time to man up.....[;)]



jwolf -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/9/2017 3:37:15 PM)

My vote is for Luzon, with Formosa as alternate choice. But I'm anxiously waiting to hear the reality.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/9/2017 10:17:14 PM)

3/25/44

A good turn across the map:

DEI: By "good," I mean a "good" subset within the bad situation in Celebes. John isn't bombarding at Watampone. If he was, he'd attack and stop the "Dunkirk" operation. But it's going smoothly with decent cadres of key units continuing to withdraw.

Burma: The main Japanese line of resistance is cracking. I think it'll fall in two or three days (unless reinforced).

Fun House: The last carrier finished upgrades. Every Fun House ship is at sea, with the slower vessels far ahead and the faster ones playing catch up. The first D-Day will take place in no more than a week, I believe. So April 1 +/-.

Roi-Namur: My little creative invasion went in without a hitch, but the rested, well-prepped, well supplied little cadre of troops couldn't overcome the meager defenses, incurred hugely lopsided odds, and pretty much evaporated. I'll return later, but only with a legitimate unit and invasion force.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/B9C88912A0BF4610BE0E3BC7C409B443.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/10/2017 3:07:50 PM)

3/26/44

Celebes: This was a big day for John as his small army at Watampone wiped out the bigger, but much weakened, Allied army at Watampone. I think he grossed some 500 points for the squads destroyed, so it's a pretty big victory. The air transports flew one more mission, extracting cadres of several more units. All of these will rebuild at Ambon. I have plenty of squads and devices in the pools.

The real question is whether John moves en masse on the last Allied base - Palapo - or whether he detaches parts of his army to garrison bases in the Fun House AOO. If he does the former, Celebes will have served as an effective vortex, drawing his troops and attention when he probably couldn't afford it. But if he does the latter, we'll have to see how things turn out.

Burma: Two Allied attacks on the Japanese MLR (Toungoo towards Prome) failed. I expected some progress at Toungoo, but supply was a little low. My units in each hex need to rest a few days before attacking again.

Fun House: An IJ sub put a torp into CVE Manila Bay, just east of Horn Island. She is heavily damaged and may not make it to port. With the huge number of Allied air and sea ASW assets in the vicinity, the sub commander probably was a good one. Allied ASW did sink that sub.

There are a lot more enemy subs patrolling in the path Death Star and the Herd is taking. I double-checked and adjusted ASW assignments. Other than that, I just have to gird up my loins and hope for the best.

An Allied sub put two TT into CA Kumano at Talaud-Eilanden (she didn't sink, drat it, but this event probably has more strategic significance than Manila Bay's (or at least I hope so). Another Allied sub sank an IJN DD near Ternate.

Lots more SigInt, including John moving another division (15th, I think) to Manila.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/10/2017 4:12:15 PM)

Manila Bay is in dire straits. She's three hexes from Cooktown and seems to have a good captain.

On the flip side:

ASW attack near Talaud-eilanden at 79,97

Japanese Ships
CA Kumano, Torpedo hits 2
DD Yugiri
DD Asagiri

Allied Ships
SS Darter, hits 6

SS Darter launches 6 torpedoes at CA Kumano
Darter bottoming out ....

[image]local://upfiles/8143/F5FCCFB46A574E58AF1ECCD48550B004.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/10/2017 4:13:28 PM)

The unhappy fate of Watampone:

Allied adjusted defense: 122

Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 1)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Watampone !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: fatigue(-)

Japanese ground losses:
1199 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 127 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 12 (1 destroyed, 11 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
12887 casualties reported
Squads: 322 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 744 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 103 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 278 (278 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 204 (204 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 12

Assaulting units:
34th Ind.Mixed Brigade
32nd Ind.Mixed Brigade
2nd Tank Division

Defending units:
4th Australian Division
40th Infantry/B Division
4th USMC Tank Battalion
40th Infantry/C Division
9 RAAF Aviation Rgt
6th RAN Base Force
18th USN Naval Construction Regiment
2nd RAA Jungle Mountain Gun Regiment
11th RAAF M/W Sqn Engineer Battalion
1 Group RNZAF
12th RAAF M/W Sqn Engineer Battalion
33rd Medium Regiment



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/10/2017 4:17:20 PM)

The question will soon become, did all these things - Burma, Celebes, China, probes here and there - create enough confusion or distraction to impact John's defensive preparations.

Judging by what I'm seeing on the map, the Allies will achieve strategic surprise (in that John hasn't attended to things that needed to be done that take time). Now the questions is whether and to what extent there is operational surprise.

The upgrading CVs TF will rejoin Death Star day after tomorrow. The slowest ships are still out in front about 12 hexes. So the Herd is moving properly and in good order (excepting CVE Manila Bay). One part of the Herd is nearly halfway to the first beach. Things are going to start moving fast in about three days.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/10/2017 4:20:07 PM)

I have an ARD and an AR freshly arrived at Cooktown. Can those ships service Manila Bay in a meaningful way, or am I trying to squeeze a Volkswagen into a shoebox?



HansBolter -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/10/2017 4:36:32 PM)

Depends on the capacity of the ARD.

They come in various sizes.

If it's big enough to fit the CVE in it then yes, it's worthwhile.

I tend to send the small 3k capacity ones to forward bases to serve DDs and subs.

The larger ones I tend to keep closer to the vest.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/10/2017 5:52:25 PM)

3/27/44

Celebes: I'm not positive, but I think the bulk of John's Celebes army is moving on Palapo. This is important, but not necessarily vital. I don't know where John will deploy this army, but even if he chooses the "right" places, it'll be a race now.

John's fighters didn't contest transports retrieving troops from Palapo. I'll have cadres of all those units also.

SigInt that an enemy regiment is inbound to Kudat on Borneo's north coast. This base is vacant. John's working pretty hard now. Lots of his ships are moving all over, lots of his troops are on the move, and he sees Death Star and the Herd moving his way.

Fun House: Two IJN subs sunk today by ASW ships, and a third heavily damaged. That's helpful. Two prongs of Death Star have united, with the third to catch up day after tomorrow (it'll be close tomorrow).

CVE Manila Bay's damaged dropped just a bit, but she made just a single hex. She's two hexes from Cooktown and an enemy subs lies in wait. There's a chance that high detection will spoil the sub's aim. I'll send an ASW squadron sprinting in from Horn Island to try to clear a path. The ARD at Cooktown is plenty big to handle Manila Bay.

John stationed strike aircraft in New Guinea in hopes of getting a shot at Manila Bay, but they instead picked on the trailing carrier TF. I think 30 enemy planes were downed.

The Herd isn't entirely together yet, but she's 90% of the way there. I didn't dare speak of how spread out the ships were, but they were. I figured John wouldn't want to send his strike aircraft against DS CAP. There's still some space between the various TFs, but they're drawing close and will all combine day after tomorrow. The LST TFs are still in the vanguard, so they still haven't "slowed down" the fleet that's closing from the rear.

The Hawaiian Herd is likewise well on the way to it's first beachhead - 1/3rd of the way there.

Burma: No significant progress today. 4EB aren't having much affect against 33rd Division in the wooded terrain at Toungoo. More units are moving down the various pikes, some trying to turn the enemy flanks. In the north, I'm still working to round up the isolated Japanese units. 59th Div. has about run out of room to run. 12th Div. is mired down in deep jungle.



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/10/2017 6:34:54 PM)

If you get the CVE to the ARD and it fits, don't forget to change priority to critical even if it's the only ship being worked on. It will be faster than normal, and doesn't penalize you in the same way that shipyards do (you can put a 35K ton ship in a 55K capacity ARD and put it on critical with no problems like you'd have in a 55K shipyard).


If you're landing in a week or just shy of that and your CVEs were near Horn... I'm changing my guess to Mindanao.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (1/10/2017 6:40:42 PM)

Thanks, Hans and Loka, for the input on ARDs. I have two of them and have somehow managed to get them nearly together and two far forward! One is near Horn Island, the second just made Cooktown.

As far as targets, I'm still playing a bit. I'm giving you guys the truth, and it's vectoring in now on the whole truth, but it isn't quite the whole truth. Every tidbit is true, but how they are arranged and what info is omitted helps create illusions.

I'd say that I'm playing with white space, only I don't know what that means (I flunked the Nemo course in Shin Zhu's Magical Art of Art and Warfare).

(I'm not omitting the whole truth to toy with anybody, but rather to maintain a modicum of op sec.)



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