RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (Full Version)

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paullus99 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/6/2017 1:48:10 PM)

Heck, no harm, no foul here. If you end up taking the base or at least inflicting good damage (and reduce the forts), then it was certainly worth it.

Your "slow and steady" advance is still ahead of schedule & John hasn't done anything substantial to change that. He may start pulling out cadres from Manila, so keeping up the pressure isn't a bad thing either.

At some point, I'd recommend looking for a good opportunity to pounce on his separated carrier forces - if he keeps dancing around, you can certainly make him pay for it - in blood.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/6/2017 1:54:39 PM)

I don't see any way to "force" a carrier battle. If I go steaming off after KB or Mini KB, John can turn tail and flee. The only way I see to "force" a carrier battle is to make things so hot for him that he decides he has to do it.

I certainly thought Fun House would create the proper environment. In the real war, Japan would've committed, no doubt. Arguably, John should have and is reaping the cost of not doing so.

I then thought John would react to Mini Death Star steaming west through the Gulf of Carpentaria. I'm sure he considered committing, but again he decided not to.

Since Fun House and Mini Death Star didn't provoke a carrier battle, let's see if Peep Show does. It may well.



MakeeLearn -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/6/2017 2:06:25 PM)

quote:

The only way I see to "force" a carrier battle is to make things so hot for him that he decides he has to do it.



He may be saving dessert for the Home Islands.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/6/2017 2:16:18 PM)

He might, but he's going to run out of sea room eventually. Allied 4EB should be within range of every decent enemy port by autumn. John may end up with an odd little naval kingdom centered on Hokkaido.



paullus99 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/6/2017 2:21:33 PM)

I was just about to write that - he's going to start running out of decent ports to base the KB out of.

You'll be in range of Singapore before too long & if he insists on keeping the KB in the Central Pacific, he's just using fuel that could be better utilized elsewhere.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/6/2017 2:29:32 PM)

Lowpe mentioned yesterday that John has a decent cushion in points. I don't think that's the case - I think the points gap has narrowed about on schedule, with the Allies in position to really begin harvesting points in the near future. John will lose some valuable bases (Manila is a 3,000-point swing, for instance). But strategic bombing is the real difference maker in the game.

Regular readers know that Allied ops from Big Tent to Fun House to Peep Show were planned since the early summer of '43. Peep Show is designed to bring the Home Islands within strategic bombing range. With regard to Peep Show, I like the way the map looks at the moment, though things could change before the op takes place. Peep Show was originally planned for September 1944, but may be ready a month or more ahead of schedule, depending on what happens at Manila in the next few weeks.

What happens after Peep Show? I'm not yet sure. It may not be necessary to invade the Home Islands, certainly in any major way. As long as I can efficiently target Home Island bases for strategic bombing, it may be more efficient to concentrate on other areas, including Singapore, Java, and other places where John has decent garrisons and holds bases of value. Or it may be a little of both: invading part of the Home Islands while attending to high value targets elsewhere.




MakeeLearn -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/6/2017 3:11:25 PM)

quote:

As long as I can efficiently target Home Island bases for strategic bombing,



Time to bring in B-29 Superfortress crewman Bronson with the 39th Bombardment Group

[image]local://upfiles/55056/59A51F9ECE984940BBA5CD9ACA94B107.jpg[/image]



crsutton -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/6/2017 3:11:44 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Lowpe mentioned yesterday that John has a decent cushion in points. I don't think that's the case - I think the points gap has narrowed about on schedule, with the Allies in position to really begin harvesting points in the near future. John will lose some valuable bases (Manila is a 3,000-point swing, for instance). But strategic bombing is the real difference maker in the game.

Regular readers know that Allied ops from Big Tent to Fun House to Peep Show were planned since the early summer of '43. Peep Show is designed to bring the Home Islands within strategic bombing range. With regard to Peep Show, I like the way the map looks at the moment, though things could change before the op takes place. Peep Show was originally planned for September 1944, but may be ready a month or more ahead of schedule, depending on what happens at Manila in the next few weeks.

What happens after Peep Show? I'm not yet sure. It may not be necessary to invade the Home Islands, certainly in any major way. As long as I can efficiently target Home Island bases for strategic bombing, it may be more efficient to concentrate on other areas, including Singapore, Java, and other places where John has decent garrisons and holds bases of value. Or it may be a little of both: invading part of the Home Islands while attending to high value targets elsewhere.




Yes, I do not even look at points. The Allies can be way behind in points but it is really strategic position that matters and this should be the focus of every Allied player. You put yourself in position to hit Japanese industry in a timely manner and the VP count hardly matters. Because you will be reaping points in droves once you have a suitable position. Japan just won't be able to kill enough ships or men to compensate.



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/6/2017 3:28:57 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I can't see how you can't see it. :) So the failure lies in my "teaching" or explaining.

The convergence of Death Star and Mini Death Star is the biggest thing going right now. It's more important than the Battle of Manila, the Luzon Campaign, and the Indochina Campaign. Things are going well for the Allies at the moment, but this convergence will provide the men, supply, fuel and ships to ramp up things about five notches.

You don't see the significance of bringing in about eight divisions plus support to add to a campaign involving ten divisions? I'm getting an 80% increase in what I can commit to Luzon and future operations. That's huge.


Not your fault. Mine I am sure. [;)] I have played a few months of Armageddon with M-M and I was the Allies so I do know the Allied endgame somewhat.

From everything you have posted, Luzon is already done for in fact months ahead of schedule. If those fresh divisions were to unite with the Deathstar and take I don't know, you name it: Cam Ranh Bay (like WITPQS) or anywhere to the east of that all the way to Kyushu, well then I would see that too. And perhaps you will yet.

But go back a month, you basically had Japan cut in half with taking Vinh. Japan's western Army north of Moulmein was trashed. Instead of securing Vinh you took Puerto and Miri and made great strides for Manila.

I guess I was just expecting something on a grand scale that could justify not securing Vinh.


I loaded up Downfall. It is completely different from an actual grand campaign end-game scenario. They are pretty much nothing alike. For starters, 75-plane Allied fighter units. And everything is already more or less where you need it....

CR doesn't need to secure Vinh so much as make it not secure for John. That's it. He doesn't need to trap the IJA southwest of there, but it would be a bonus.



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/6/2017 3:33:00 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Lowpe mentioned yesterday that John has a decent cushion in points. I don't think that's the case - I think the points gap has narrowed about on schedule, with the Allies in position to really begin harvesting points in the near future. John will lose some valuable bases (Manila is a 3,000-point swing, for instance). But strategic bombing is the real difference maker in the game.

Regular readers know that Allied ops from Big Tent to Fun House to Peep Show were planned since the early summer of '43. Peep Show is designed to bring the Home Islands within strategic bombing range. With regard to Peep Show, I like the way the map looks at the moment, though things could change before the op takes place. Peep Show was originally planned for September 1944, but may be ready a month or more ahead of schedule, depending on what happens at Manila in the next few weeks.

What happens after Peep Show? I'm not yet sure. It may not be necessary to invade the Home Islands, certainly in any major way. As long as I can efficiently target Home Island bases for strategic bombing, it may be more efficient to concentrate on other areas, including Singapore, Java, and other places where John has decent garrisons and holds bases of value. Or it may be a little of both: invading part of the Home Islands while attending to high value targets elsewhere.




I actually had the same initial thought when I saw your VP screen. Your points total is far lower than I would have expected, although I then remembered you don't have bases like Rabaul in your count. Maybe you could stand to build up some bases in bulk for a few hundred VPs, or maybe that effort is better spent on simply advancing.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/6/2017 3:41:14 PM)

Rangoon is an example, Loka. It's worth one hundred points per airfield/port level. I took it at levels 5/7. It can be built to 9/9, meaning a 600-point increase.

Because of the unusual, narrow, long Allied axis of advance, John still holds a lot of valuable bases - Luganville, Port Moresby, Rabaul, Soerabaja, Batavia, Palembang, Singapore, and Balikpapan (not sure all of those are worth a lot of points, but many of them are). It's because of the allied axis of advance that each of these bases is now rather isolated and behind the main lines, or about to be behind the main lines. I should have plenty of time to attend to most or all of those, and John will have little real chance of offering successful opposition. Once Peep Show is strongly ashore, I'll turn my attention more fully to those places.



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/6/2017 3:48:28 PM)

Soerabaja and Balikpapan aren't worth that much to the Allies. IIRC, Palembang is only worth a multiplier of 1, maybe 2... Luganville is worth a lot to him, but not so much to you. Moresby maybe the same. Rabaul is worth a lot to you though, as is Singapore and to an extent Batavia.



HansBolter -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/6/2017 5:13:17 PM)

Shanghai is one of the most valuable hexes in the game to the Allies.

If you're looking for big ticket VP targets it's hard to beat.



jwolf -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/6/2017 6:13:54 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
Luganville is worth a lot to him, but not so much to you.


For computing the VP ratio, that means it's worth taking. Decreasing the denominator has much more impact on the ratio than increasing the numerator by the same amount, for numbers of the type we have here.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/6/2017 6:37:17 PM)

6/21/44

Battle of Manila: The defenses are crumbling. If John doesn't reinforce - and I see no evidence of reinforcements inbound - then Manila falls within the week.

That will have three major impacts: (1) shortening a campaign I foresaw as taking until September will conclude in July, speeding up Peep Show by four to six weeks; (2) the big Allied units won't be as beat up as I had anticipated; (3) the army being brought in by Mini Death Star was going to land on northern Luzon, isolating what I figured would be Fortress Manila; that won't be necessary; instead, those units are immediately available for Peep Show and other expeditionary purposes.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/9B1AECB19B00406EAC2A52FA30EE8038.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/6/2017 6:45:31 PM)

6/21/43

Battle of Miri: See map for happy news.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/1DD8FCF77C844DB4BEB94D1EBB5B4B86.jpg[/image]



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/6/2017 6:49:32 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

6/21/43

Battle of Miri: See map for happy news.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/1DD8FCF77C844DB4BEB94D1EBB5B4B86.jpg[/image]

Congrats! A perfect example of bringing just enough to do the job.
He may try and bomb the oil there now, just to deny it to you.



Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/6/2017 6:50:57 PM)

In my post earlier, which is getting savaged by you AFBs', I merely mentioned about John's current position which is strong for most scenario 1 games. But this isn't a scenario 1 game with respect to the Navy.

I made no prediction on future performance or how precarious John's position is or isn't. Since I am reading and commenting on both AARs, I am very careful as to what I say. I standby it as being accurate without spoilers or hints with all information coming from CR's AAR posts.

There is some evidence that John is thinking of the endgame, and has been for quite a while. That his endgame is not your endgame should not be surprising.




Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/6/2017 6:55:58 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I can't see how you can't see it. :) So the failure lies in my "teaching" or explaining.

The convergence of Death Star and Mini Death Star is the biggest thing going right now. It's more important than the Battle of Manila, the Luzon Campaign, and the Indochina Campaign. Things are going well for the Allies at the moment, but this convergence will provide the men, supply, fuel and ships to ramp up things about five notches.

You don't see the significance of bringing in about eight divisions plus support to add to a campaign involving ten divisions? I'm getting an 80% increase in what I can commit to Luzon and future operations. That's huge.


Not your fault. Mine I am sure. [;)] I have played a few months of Armageddon with M-M and I was the Allies so I do know the Allied endgame somewhat.

From everything you have posted, Luzon is already done for in fact months ahead of schedule. If those fresh divisions were to unite with the Deathstar and take I don't know, you name it: Cam Ranh Bay (like WITPQS) or anywhere to the east of that all the way to Kyushu, well then I would see that too. And perhaps you will yet.

But go back a month, you basically had Japan cut in half with taking Vinh. Japan's western Army north of Moulmein was trashed. Instead of securing Vinh you took Puerto and Miri and made great strides for Manila.

I guess I was just expecting something on a grand scale that could justify not securing Vinh.


I loaded up Downfall. It is completely different from an actual grand campaign end-game scenario. They are pretty much nothing alike. For starters, 75-plane Allied fighter units. And everything is already more or less where you need it....

CR doesn't need to secure Vinh so much as make it not secure for John. That's it. He doesn't need to trap the IJA southwest of there, but it would be a bonus.


Downfall is not the game, of course. Japan has Karyu's for example. Pilot training on both sides is horrible. China is quiet mostly. But it does teach many endgame lessons & requirements needed for a bombing campaign/invasion of Honshu.



Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/6/2017 7:01:44 PM)

How beat up are those Paratroopers you sent in?

I am still amazed by the unit selection at Manila. [X(]

The mobile pack rapidfire gun unit, is to me, one of the better units being fully air mobile. For example it could have been flow into Miri to aid in the base's defense.

CR you may very well take the base with the next ground attack. There simply isn't enough soak units there to prevent your bombers from having a major impact. Plus your daily bombardments should also help. Well done.[sm=happy0065.gif]




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/6/2017 7:03:52 PM)

6/21/44

Peep Show: As Manila teeters, the first detailed look at the Peep Show theater of operations.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/9E9B5741D5794A3FB4695C9731A826A3.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/6/2017 7:17:07 PM)

6/21/44

Many carrier TFs in the DEI and vicinity.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/DBAB22BA87094EB3B1B51EA418090568.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/6/2017 8:04:07 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
How beat up are those Paratroopers you sent in?...


The paratroops took it pretty hard in the shock attack. No "abled" squads at this point, and several squads destroyed, I think.



quote:


CR you may very well take the base with the next ground attack. There simply isn't enough soak units there to prevent your bombers from having a major impact. Plus your daily bombardments should also help. Well done.[sm=happy0065.gif]


I think all of my divisions except one (9th Aus.) have low fatigue and disablements. I'm weighing weather to attack again tomorrow. I'm leaning against it, because usually the dice gods seem to frown upon successive attacks unless odds are overwhelming.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/6/2017 8:08:29 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
In my post earlier, which is getting savaged by you AFBs'....


I don't think anybody savaged your opinions at all. I disagreed with them mildly, and one or two other posts did so to the same or lesser extent, but that was about it.

But you may have a JFB bias. If I'm reading things right, John is really teetering. He's run out of sea room and most of the empire is ripe for the plucking now. The Home Islands may be stout and the economy strong, but he's going to have a tough time holding anything else, and his ships are going to run out of safe harbors. I did frontload the investments in weakening the empire, but the returns are beginning to come in and should accelerate.




Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/6/2017 8:18:24 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe
In my post earlier, which is getting savaged by you AFBs'....


I don't think anybody savaged your opinions at all. I disagreed with them mildly, and one or two other posts did so to the same or lesser extent, but that was about it.

But you may have a JFB bias. If I'm reading things right, John is really teetering. He's run out of sea room and most of the empire is ripe for the plucking now. The Home Islands may be stout and the economy strong, but he's going to have a tough time holding anything else, and his ships are going to run out of safe harbors. I did frontload the investments in weakening the empire, but the returns are beginning to come in and should accelerate.




That was sarcasm. There was supposed to be an emoji [:D].



Lecivius -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/6/2017 8:59:49 PM)

Sarcasm? Us AFB's take the job of beating the snail snot outta JFB's seriously!! [:D][8D][:'(]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/6/2017 9:40:29 PM)

Proof I take myself too seriously in real life, if not in the game (and I do, and I realize that I do):

1. I presented a program on the Battle of Chickamauga at a local history museum on the 150th anniversary of the battle. Afterwards, an elderly man approached me and said, "You take this stuff seriously." (I don't think it was a compliment.)

2. Last March, I spoke to a gathering of sizeable lawyers and judges at the courthouse about prominent local lawyer who played an interesting role in the Civil War. Afterwards, a young lawyer approached me and said, "You should be a preacher." (He did not mean that as a compliment.)

3. Many years ago, circa 1980, I was flying home from Atlanta to Miami for a college break. I happened to be seated beside a pretty coed from Purdue, about my same age. We talked back and forth of our various interests. After I told her of mine (history, birdwatching, hiking, etc.) she said, "You act like your 40 years old." (Arg, she didn't mean it as a criticism, but it hit hard; instead of wooing the coed, I'd driven her screaming into the night.)

4. In September 1979, while a freshman at the University of Georgia, I was standing at a bus stop in Athens. A young coed, a bit older than me, approached. "Do you have a plant?" she asked. I thought for a moment, and then helpfully replied, "I think Sears has a gardening department." Ten minutes later, on the bus to my dorm, I realized she was asking for weed.

Now, all of that is the truth, but perhaps not the whole truth. I do a lot of public speaking and teaching, and most of the feedback is positive. But I realize that my earnest manner isn't universally pleasing. It grates on some.



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/6/2017 10:10:21 PM)

Incident #3 may not have led on romantically, but that probably saved you later angst when the mismatch of interests would tear apart whatever relationship you developed. Some things are not meant to be and we should be happy when we avoid the conflicts. [8D]



Bif1961 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/7/2017 12:29:50 AM)

I was a young soldier in Hawaii in 1984, I was walking by a liquor store when a young man on a bike asked me if I would like some buds, I smiled and said no I don't drink and moved on.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (4/7/2017 2:09:33 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: paullus99

I was just about to write that - he's going to start running out of decent ports to base the KB out of.

You'll be in range of Singapore before too long & if he insists on keeping the KB in the Central Pacific, he's just using fuel that could be better utilized elsewhere.


That was one of the reasons I targeted Miri, and probably a reason that John fought to save it. It's 16 hexes from Singapore, 18 from Palembang, 21 from Batavia and 17 from Soerabaja. It's currently a level four airfield that can be built to eight.




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