RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (Full Version)

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MakeeLearn -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 1:59:09 AM)



"Unfortunately, bombs have no eyes. So, in accordance with America's humanitarian policies, the American Air Force, which does not wish to injure innocent people, now gives you warning to evacuate the cities named and save your lives."

[image]local://upfiles/55056/8E3E43F4E9F24BE293DA9A3D3FCF4CFE.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 2:05:00 AM)

I gave up over 60,000 strategic vp almost 95% of that during the day so I am sure you can do it...

Obvert is trying to punish me daily, err, I mean nightly in our slugfest...it is a wonderful cat and mouse whack a mole game within a game. I am sorry you won't get to experience it.

You have been shooting down Nick D's and they are night fighters so he obviously has made some.




palioboy2 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 2:47:52 AM)

Having followed this game forever on both sides even I knew you were going to start to strategically bomb at night. He should have known or if not clarified. Now not only can you not night bomb but he never had to dump supply, research or airframes into night fighters and I am sure he upgraded those NF squadrons off their scripted path to top line fighters that you have been facing. It's annoying watching him get another crutch in a game where he is already getting so many.



Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 2:57:41 AM)

Don't give up hope yet.



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 3:57:18 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Air War Games

Aparri airfield goes to level eight tomorrow. I think at eight, aviation support is doubled (if not, then at level 9, which the base should reach in a week or so). If so, Aparri will be able to hold roughly 350 aircraft tomorrow, and about 530 in two or three days, with more support units inbound.

Yes, at level 8 the Aviation Support is doubled to indicate efficiency of the facilities for repair/maintenance/ammunitioning. But that does not erase the other limits on numbers of squadrons, aircraft or numbers of engines that can be handled at the level 8 base. Exceed those levels and you get a few penalties to coordination (but probably not too bad).

At level nine, all the stacking penalties go away (I think).
At level 10 you get current run movies every night.



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 4:38:05 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Re "historic" night strategic bombing. There isn't any such thing in the game since Japan flies on rice balls and trains pilots on rice balls. His air defenses over the HI will be orders of magnitude better than history. He'll probably carp, but he has no cause to.



I understand what you are saying...but there are only 21 squadrons eligible to fly night fighters. If he didn't prepare for it, upgraded those squadrons away from the night fighter tree, allocate 300 planes a month production to night fighters plus their engines, he will be savaged at night.

7/44 Japan has the IrvingS and Nick D, and that is it. Not all 21 squadrons are available for NF duty as some convert only over to Dinah NF, etc. Other squadrons get withdrawn.

If he has ignored this aspect of the game, it will take 3 months and 300,000 supplies (plus supply for engines) to prepare for a strategic night bombing campaign with just the basic Japanese night fighters and that assumes no damage done to the night fighter factories.

If Japan hasn't built up pools of night fighters, it would be fairly easy to target those factories early. They can even be inadvertently destroyed by fires or their engines. Nick D takes a funky engine for example.

I don't know any of the answers to what John's understanding of the agreement is/was or what his preparation are for a night campaign. But I think it is an area to tread carefully and thoughtfully.



I guess my macro answer is "waaaaaah!"

The entire Allied OOB is predicated on events that don't happen in any game, from Midway on. John had the option to max or min his NF R&D. CR gets the B-29s he gets, when he gets them.

Any HR preventing night strategic bombing is the most massive VP nerf possible under the game engine. You know very well it's many tens of thousands of VPs. It's the only way most Allied players ever get close to the auto-vic they must have under the game design to win the game.

From reading both sides, my take-away on John's attitude on night bombing is mostly "I don't get any 4Es, so you shouldn't get to use yours."

Night Manpower bombing is different in every way from night AF or port bombing. It happened. Cities are easy to find. And they burn.

Finally, at this date, CR has very few B-29 units. He has no P-51Ds. John should be able to deal, with day-fighters if need be. If he doesn't like it he should have kept CR out of range longer. He's been out-played, and it's time to pay the piper.


Also, against MM... he's limited by the same NF squadron limitations and my B-29 pools were REALLY hurting. I ran them into the ground to get the VPs. We're continuing the game until we feel like stopping, but while I was trading way up in terms of VPs (a few hundred vs. a few dozen VPs for him for B-29s lost) I couldn't sustain the numbers if I weren't pushing for an AV within a number of turns measuring in the 10's. If I had to sustain the effort over months, like the Allies did historically... it's just not possible, really. Bombing from historical distances, too... plus

I'm with Bullwinkle. I don't care how "OP" the Allied 4E's are at night relative to historical performance. It roughly balances out vs. all the extra **** Japan can do.



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 4:41:05 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

That's pretty radical and is a huge concession, but we'll just see how it works.



IMO, this is tantamount to conceding. Sigh. But it's a multi-year investment, and you want the "official" victory screen (I would).

"If we play with me doing what I can under the game engine AND the historical constraints, I've already won, so let's play with a limitation where you might be able to 'win' except that I already actually would have won."



DW -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 7:39:09 AM)

While the official victory screen would be nice, I think it's pretty clear to everyone following this AAR that Canoe has outplayed John at every turn.

Sumatra, while ultimately a defeat, gained strategic surprise and it took John months to wipe out an invasion which, had John been playing competently, should have failed within weeks.

Those were months were John needed to be doing other things that he didn't get to do, making Canoe's subsequent invasions more successful.

So now, even playing a scenario that's specifically tailored to give Japan more late war staying power, Canoe has his fingers around John's neck, is squeezing ever tighter and doing so well ahead of the historical timetable.

No... There's no real question about who's winning this game.




Encircled -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 8:31:19 AM)

Man, that is a hell of a concession you have made.

Fair play to you, and I agree 100% with Lokasenna.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 1:23:04 PM)

John's further reply on night bombing: I spent the day on-and-off the Forum getting comments and doing thinking on this topic.  As pointed out by several players, I do have some Night Fighter and Engine production going.  It is just in very limited numbers.  Others were--how shall we say--more aggressive in that Japan couldn’t do it in 1943/1944 why allow it now for the Allies?  I am sure you  have gotten an earful on your side of the Forum as well.  How about this as a proposal:  It is July 21st--how about we open up Night Bombing--in ALL forms--August 15th?  This would give me a month of turns to get any production tweaks and changes I need done, give you a chance to prepare for Night Attacks by your and upon your forces, and allow for this aspect of the game to be jointly explored by both of us.

Seems fair.  What do you think?

The highlighted portion is just a weird misconstruction of what we agreed to. Both sides mutually agreed to refrain from night bombing of ports or airfields. John didn't give up anything I didn't give up, and it was his choice in the first place, though I put the option out there for discussion. Strategic bombing was a separate matter that I also addressed, as set for previously.

My reply to John:Regarding night bombing, we are talking about two different things.

We mutually agreed to forego night-bombing of airfields and ports due to forum concerns that it might be nerfed.  This came about during the Sumatra campaign, when you employed the tactic a few times on a small scale.  I approached you and said, "If you do it, I'll do it; if you don't do it, I won't do it."  You chose the latter, and I explained that there would come a day when the Allies would draw near enough to Japan to engage in strategic night bombing, but that we'd keep it with the bounds of historical capabilities and wouldn't abuse it, just in case it too was nerfed.

Despite that "understanding," I needed to give you a heads-up that I would be employing it at some point, perhaps soon.  Hence my email yesterday. 

I've discussed this in my AAR many times over the years, so I think my regular readers were familiar with the agreement.  Their input was mostly to discourage me from yielding on this point, except I think for NYGiants.

The prohibition of port and airfield bombing has been mutually beneficial, and will pay off for you more as my bombers draw within range of your biggest ports. 

Just to make clear, we have a one-month moratorium (per your email) on strategic bombing at night.  I agree.  I am not exactly sure when I'll initiate the bombing, but if it seems nerfed - if you have no fair defenses and it seems whacked - then we can address it as things develop.

The moratorium on other kinds of night bombing (ports, airfields) remains in effect.  If you prefer to discuss that, I'm glad to.  But I'm also glad to continue as is.  I don't know if night bombing is nerfed or not, but we've lived without it for a long time, and I'm glad to continue that way.



Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 1:38:08 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

IMO, this is tantamount to conceding.


I don't think this is the case, as this a beefed up naval scenario 1 game and given the date. If it were scenario 2 and Japan increased the size of several (all) of the naval fighter squadrons to 81 planes...then perhaps it would be.

I believe M-M did supersize his NF groups (those that can) in your game making your night campaign significantly costlier. Even if he only used them as 1/3 of a unit it is still a great advantage.

I do not know if John did any supersizing of air squadrons.




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 2:12:27 PM)

7/20/44

Fletcher Raid, Kwangchowan: details below.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/5A3CE3CAD3D049E39BB54D254B499F25.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 2:23:09 PM)

7/20/44

SEAC: The noose is tightening around Bangkok, but I think John long, long ago gave up any notion of making a stand there.

Once Bangkok falls, the bulk of the Allied army will move east. I'll see if supply follows. I'll leave a few units in a blocking position SW of Bangkok, relying mostly on air power as a deterrent from John regaining offensive ambitions in the Malaya peninsula. He has some oomph down there, I think.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/8DFE1BB5A81D4C04931743CC35A1C996.jpg[/image]



cardas -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 2:29:09 PM)

This is a post you made back in January 2016 about night bombing ( http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/fb.asp?m=4015092 ).

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John and I exchanged email last night and this a.m. about night bombing.

First, I asked him his intentions and understanding about it. He replied this way: "No Night Port Bombing. Avoided it but went after the AF previous turn. Fairly useless attempt..."

Then he modified this later in the nightt: "Have thought a lot about this topic and have decided to go with no night bombing PERIOD. Was going to go along the lines of no Port Bombing but then thought that that wasn’t consistent. Consider the issue settled. Am reasonably sure I changed everyone for this turn. I think..."

I replied this morning:

"When we originally discussed the issue of night bombing in 2013, our concerns came from widespread reports in the Forum that it was rather borked. Those reports might have been exaggerated or the issue might have been addressed in later patches. If so, let' discuss.

"There will come a time when Allied night bombing is historical and I'll want to use it. But if it's borked in some way then we'll need to address it then too.

"Of course, Japan did use night bombing. As I recall there were occasional Betty raids in the islands campaigns. They weren't large numbers, as I recall, nor were the particularly effective.

"So I'm open to discussing, but would like to make sure we're on the same page with the same understanding.

"So until further notice, neither of us is night bombing. But let's discuss if you wish to."

Unless night bombing is totally borked (I haven't heard anything of that sort in years, so I don't think it is), I intend to engage in it when I draw close enough to Japan to employ it. I'm sure the Allies used it in limited quantities earlier in the war, but I won't. Before I commence night bombing (perhaps months before), I'll let John know that I intend to use it historically (or, historically within the context of the game - meaning if I invade Okinawa tomorrow I'd consider using it). But if it does turn out to be borked, we'll address the issue then.


I'm not sure that it was entirely clear as to whether night bombing would ever be on the table again. On one hand, yes, you say you want to use it in the future. On the other hand the last quote you give us about what you sent to John is "So until further notice, neither of us is night bombing. But let's discuss if you wish to." - I could understand it if he took that as if night bombing wouldn't be allowed again, period.

Of course I'm not privy to all of what you've discussed about it. Still, this just underlines how important it is to double check that any house rules are understood in the same way. Especially in a long running game such as this ideally you'd both would have edited in any new house rules to the opening post of you AAR with identical wording. That way there would be no question as to what was agreed on X years ago. But then hindsight is 20/20.



quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Trying to figure out when it's "safe" to bring the fleet from Legaspi to Manila.

Does anybody know the answer to this question?

[image]local://upfiles/8143/1DBCF6ECEC6A455EA970BE581FDA96AD.jpg[/image]


From what I've seen CD guns will only fire at targets moving through a strait if the hex is owned by the same side as the CD guns. As for the dry firing you had experienced earlier that may be due to there not being any enemy mines left in the strait. You get the combat animation window but the CD guns won't fire unless there are mines around, almost certainly a bug with the game.

There's of course the risk that I'm wrong here but those are my experiences with CD guns defending straits.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 2:45:32 PM)

7/20/44

SoPac KB: Interesting KB raid developing in the Coral Sea, leaving that carrier force probably out of position for Peep Show.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/97DEA92421BD4CBCA14EACB2B2B6787C.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 2:46:05 PM)

Thanks, Cardas, for sniffing that out. I spent an hour or so looking for it last night, without luck.



Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 2:51:04 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: cardas
Especially in a long running game such as this ideally you'd both would have edited in any new house rules to the opening post of you AAR with identical wording.


Excellent idea! [sm=happy0065.gif]



Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 2:58:27 PM)

What shipping is in Hong Kong....have no fear when it comes to small Fletcher task forces![sm=00000036.gif] Lightnings are excellent LRCAP too, and will shred attackers. Perhaps it is the best use for Lightnings at this stage of the game.




Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 3:03:33 PM)

7/20/44

Fun House and Peep Show: Is that KB moving down the China coast, or some ephemera exaggerated by naval search aircraft?

[image]local://upfiles/8143/79FA781CDFA14DF5AEAC42B0B93182CB.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 3:26:27 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

What shipping is in Hong Kong....have no fear when it comes to small Fletcher task forces![sm=00000036.gif] Lightnings are excellent LRCAP too, and will shred attackers. Perhaps it is the best use for Lightnings at this stage of the game.



NavSearch consistently reports only small craft at Hong Kong. I had SigInt that units were aboard ships bound for Hong Kong, but no sign that they're there yet.



Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 3:26:32 PM)

I have found that if you move less than full movement at cruise the better the damage control. 71 float damage is really scary, I would hop from base to base auto disbanding at each. No hurry I think.

The 1000 ship task force most likely shows up as major radio signals on Japan's sigint if he is looking.










jwolf -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 4:00:06 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

71 float damage is really scary, I would hop from base to base auto disbanding at each.



What I find really irritating about this is that the ship usually gets put automatically in pierside mode after disbanding, when it has this much damage. Then you have to wait 3 days before trying to move it again. Makes for agonizingly slow movement toward a shipyard for the major repairs.



HansBolter -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 4:02:40 PM)

The aviation support will double on the turn after the airfield reaches level 8. Check it again next turn.



crsutton -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 4:43:20 PM)

Dan, you are going to win this one big time regardless of night bombing or not. I would not sweat it too much. I think that by late 44 your fighters are going to be close enough to the home islands to do John in anyways.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 4:56:35 PM)

There is merit in Lowpe's suggestion, so CV Sumatra will advance another hex or two and then disband in a port. Let's see how that works.

Sumatra has 0/65/0 damage, with the 65 being all major FLT. When she left port yesterday, FLT increased to 71. So it's worth being careful.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 5:01:05 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton
Dan, you are going to win this one big time regardless of night bombing or not. I would not sweat it too much. I think that by late 44 your fighters are going to be close enough to the home islands to do John in anyways.


We'll get a pretty good idea when Peep Show gets underway. Formosa is within range of Aparri, which will base Allied fighters, and Manila, which will handle the 4EB. The campaign will probably open soon, with concentrated sweeps and bombing missions versus one of the big Formosa airfields. John probably has a fair amount of AA, and I think he'll employ a lot of fighters. He has to.

I may counter by using bombardment TFs. Those may encounter mines or SSX or whatever. So I'll be prepared for that.

I'm "storing" subs at Manila. By the time the show opens, I'll have about 20-25 that'll tote mines up to the Formosa region, and lay them if and when KB or combat TFs make an appearance.

John has apparently decided that LBA and KB are sufficient to handle the Formosa defense campaign. Is he right? I don't think so. But it'll be a long, tough battle. I think Allied bombardments and bombings and sweeps can succeed, but my supply of top-notch fighters isn't inexhaustible. I think it'll be an interesting operation from that standpoint alone.



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 6:38:51 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

IMO, this is tantamount to conceding.


I don't think this is the case, as this a beefed up naval scenario 1 game and given the date. If it were scenario 2 and Japan increased the size of several (all) of the naval fighter squadrons to 81 planes...then perhaps it would be.

I believe M-M did supersize his NF groups (those that can) in your game making your night campaign significantly costlier. Even if he only used them as 1/3 of a unit it is still a great advantage.

I do not know if John did any supersizing of air squadrons.




If you're playing Calvinball, you've lost [;)].



Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 6:54:27 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
If you're playing Calvinball, you've lost [;)].


Had to look that up![:D]



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 7:19:00 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
If you're playing Calvinball, you've lost [;)].


Had to look that up![:D]



A classic.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (5/8/2017 7:57:40 PM)

With SoPac KB confirmed far away, Peep Show will commence as soon as the amphibious ships arrive at Manila and can load. Embarkation date might be four or five days away.

That means my carriers won't upgrade, at least in the near term.

The form and extent of Peep Show is dependent on several variables that I won't know with certainty until the TFs get underway. I don't want to tip my hand. But suffice to say, there is a Blitzkrieg version and a West Front 1914 version. The latter invokes sustained air operations to soften up the targets ahead of amphibious assaults. The former involves moving in strength on vulnerable targets ASAP.

John's had enough time to figure things out, though SigInt still whispers the things I wish to hear. The answers will come in about five or six days.



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