RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (Full Version)

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Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/11/2017 2:48:19 PM)

The Japanese are confined to two pockets now: Hanoi in the north and Saigon/Cam Ranh Bay in the south. Both pockets are slowly decreasing in size. The Allies probably have enough to handle the Hanoi pocket by the end of the year. Saigon should be a stalemate into the New Year since China has a more imporant.

There is alot of IJ shipping moving between the DEI and Saigon/Cam Ranh Bay. It might just be supply or there's a small chance John could be evacuating troops, but I wonder if he might be reinforcing with the notion of starting a new offensive.

What happens in Indochina is completely irrelevant unless I let a major Allied army get surrounded and destroyed. I won't do that.

If he does land significant reinforcements to begin a new offensive, I'll respond with air power. I don't want to divert troops down here.

An Allied army is gathering SW of Bangkok and beginning the advance to Prachuap Kiri Kahn. I want to see what progress might be made down the Malay Peninsula. If it's tough going, I might eventually do an Anzio invaison.

Really, at this late point, I don't see investing troops and ships in a major DEI offensive. I think it's more efficient and productive to reinforce China and to possibly later move on Koreo (or Hokkaido).



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/11/2017 3:02:08 PM)

John may have trouble finding a good shipyard for his cripples. I haven't taken an exhaustive inventory yet, but Nagasaki is one of his best shiyards and it's no longer viable. I don't think he has any real good west coast yards that can handle BBs, and reaching any east coast yards is a long journey.

I'll take a more careful look at shipyards later, but I suspect that his best hope is probably to pump out water, attend to SYS damage, and then send the BBs into battle in damaged shape.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/11/2017 5:12:40 PM)

11/24/44

KB Division: With the Empire on fire, a KB division moves towards SoPac.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/0BFC985A024845FF80458C37130F9498.jpg[/image]



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/11/2017 5:15:11 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

John may have trouble finding a good shipyard for his cripples. I haven't taken an exhaustive inventory yet, but Nagasaki is one of his best shiyards and it's no longer viable. I don't think he has any real good west coast yards that can handle BBs, and reaching any east coast yards is a long journey.

I'll take a more careful look at shipyards later, but I suspect that his best hope is probably to pump out water, attend to SYS damage, and then send the BBs into battle in damaged shape.

When you mentioned limited Superfort ops and the lack of recon on your last target (resulting in a raid of questionable results), I was thinking "Why not use the B-29s for a night raid on ports likely to have disbanded ships?" Your map shows lots of shipping at Nago and Naha, and I think those have shipyards. He has lots of fighters there but how many are night fighters? The close proximity should help B-29 survival after damage while the big bomb load of the Superforts should get hits on his shipping. You could even put some of them (or B-24s on night naval strike).
Just a thought that may trigger other ideas you can use. Good luck!



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/11/2017 5:26:15 PM)

Thanks, BBfanboy.

Eventually I will use 4EB on night port raids. A week or so back, Tokyo was loaded up with ships, including what seemed to be a lot of DDs. But to this point I've felt that strategic bombing is a more efficient way of scoring points. I'm incurring pretty heavy B-29 losses, right now, so I'm reluctant to use them for port-bombing missions.



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/11/2017 6:08:28 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks, BBfanboy.

Eventually I will use 4EB on night port raids. A week or so back, Tokyo was loaded up with ships, including what seemed to be a lot of DDs. But to this point I've felt that strategic bombing is a more efficient way of scoring points. I'm incurring pretty heavy B-29 losses, right now, so I'm reluctant to use them for port-bombing missions.

I was thinking of ports not on the Home Islands (because that is where all the AA is). Or at least ports where there is not much industry so the defences presumably will be less nasty. But I agree strat bombing, even if sporadic, will force him to keep his guard up.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/11/2017 6:14:25 PM)

11/24/44

Invasion Port Moresby: Allied invasion fleet heads to the beach tonight. (If you're thinking, "This is the first I've heard of this..." you're right.)

Why invade PM now? It's worth 560 points to the IJ player, which means 2x when the time comes for auto victory calculations in 1945.

I'm doing this on feel and stealth, with little protection. No combat ships, no minesweepers, no ASW, no carrier air cover. Just stealth and LRCAP from Cooktown and Horn Island.

This invasion fleet shows no detection. After a year of Allied TFs moving to and fro from the Gulf of Carpentaria and the Coral Sea, I figured John has long since become jaded. If he's sniffed this out, I'll be surprised.

The plan is to get a bunch of 2nd Australian Division ashore and then let the air force pound the garrison into submission.

Good plan? Worth the risk? I think so. I'm not risking anything that would hurt my ability to wage war (not even APAs at this point). The only hurt that could come from this is feeing John victory points.


[image]local://upfiles/8143/55A703D263914411936EA39B87DDCF7B.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/11/2017 6:28:48 PM)

11/24/44

Cripples to Port Arthur?: With a level 9 airfield and a level 41 shipyard (the same as Manila), Port Arthur is the likely destination for the IJN combat ships crippled at Ningpo.

I have some subs vectoring in, and 4EB will drop some mines at PA tonight.

John really doesn't have a good alternative. Nagasaki is too susceptible to air attack and I don't think there's another yard of any size on the protected west side of Japan.

Hitting crippled ships isn't a huge priority - if they're crippled this late, they probably aren't of any further good use to John. Blunting 4EB against CAP or flak may not be a great idea...though the points for BBs and CVs are significant from an auto-vic standpoint.


[image]local://upfiles/8143/88E9D5DA07134EFAB6DB7580AE37C6C5.jpg[/image]



paullus99 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/11/2017 6:35:09 PM)

Not a bad idea - and I love the surprise move to Port Moresby. It's going to get John's blood up, I'm sure.

My other recommendation, which might dovetail into what you've already been told - don't penny-packet out your strategic bombing raids - you really need to concentrate (it should also help keep down losses).



paullus99 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/11/2017 6:36:00 PM)

Also, why on Earth are you bothering with daylight raids?

John has obviously stacked as many fighters as he can in the Home Islands - giving him free shots at B29s in daylight is just handing him victory points.



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/11/2017 6:51:40 PM)

When I saw that TF of cripples heading north, I wondered if that was because he knows about your carpet of subs between Ningpo and Nagasaki. I think your subs could catch this TF at the rate it is moving.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/11/2017 6:52:45 PM)

Daylight raids against unprotected or lightly protected bases are immensely more effective than nighttime raids. Far more hits per bomber, so that if I pick the right field (meaning: no CAP) I come out way, way ahead.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/11/2017 7:36:21 PM)

11/24/44

Fancy Pants: More progress made in closing the eastern side of the pocket and in reducing the two important enemy stacks at Kweilin and Hengyang.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/FEEE0F104C164B2C9184C9ADF11211CF.jpg[/image]



geofflambert -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/11/2017 10:06:59 PM)

Idea for a future AAR title: The Good in Bed and the Indifferent



Zorch -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/11/2017 10:32:08 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: geofflambert

Idea for a future AAR title: The Good in Bed and the Indifferent

I'm afraid to ask...how does a Gorn fit into a bed? Please don't answer.
Reminds me of when Babawawa interviewed Godzilla on Saturday Night Live.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/12/2017 9:32:52 PM)

11/25/44

Strategic Bombing: A successful large-scale night raid against Kobe.

Fancy Pants: Mostly continued success, with IJ stacks at Hengyang, Kweilin and Kanhsien in imminent danger, and a strong Allied army beginning to approach Nanchang.

Port Moresby: Successful D-Day here. No enemy opposition. Most of 2nd Aussie Div. ashore in great shape. The high-value ships are empty and will retire. The enemy didn't counter-bombard, which is surprising. 144th Regiment is here and should have lots of forts.

Re-Supply: Death Star is moving into the central Philippines. All of the resupply TFs are now at Boela and will depart in a day or two.

I detached several big Death Star TFs to Manila to refuel. They sucked the place dry. This is kinda scary, because I've always had some kind of reserve. Lots of fuel is inbound on TKs and AOs...but fuel delivery is still daunting. I addition, I have some fuel at Boela and nearly 250k at Miri. The most ready reserve is "borrowing from transports" if needed. I have perhaps 250 xAKs and xAPs at Manila and at Taichu for just that purpose.

But perhaps 600 empties (xAKs, TKs and AOs) are accompanying DS to the DEI. The fuel ships can take on fuel at Oz, which has plenty of that. But Oz is a bit low on supply right now, so many of the xAKs will go to Pearl.

Even now, though several hundred thousands supply aboard xAKs is moving through the Coral Sea to Oz. Busy beavers.


[image]local://upfiles/8143/65169280208443F3B63B194F8D5F5835.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/12/2017 9:41:20 PM)

John has been sticking to the game doggedly - a turn a day. But it's clear he's suffering immense battle fatigue now. His emails are humorous and candid in describing his pain at undergoing shellackings here and there and pretty much everywhere. He's being a good sport about things.

Some of you JFB's know that he could still pack a wallop if his heart was in it and if he was suitably defensively oriented. But he's waging war against his DNA as much as against me.

I think the land battle in China and strategic bombing are what really has him despairing. He had come to grips with the naval disparity and, I think, was even having fun fooling around on the margins. But it's hard to witness the collapse of armies on a major land mass.

He shows no signs of giving up...and I hope he holds out until 2:1. But the end will be merciful to him. I hope he finds a way to go out with a suitably martial and Japanese bang. A banzai for the ages. I hope he doesn't end up with a powerful fleet holed up at some dot hex when 2:1 arrives.



Capt. Harlock -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/13/2017 1:28:51 AM)

What's the status of the wounded ships after the battle at Ningpo? Did you get any of them to better repair facilities?



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/13/2017 1:36:43 AM)

BB Valiant, CA Minneapolis and CA Sussex are disbanded in port at Ningpo. I won't risk moving them out until Death Star returns. The wounded DDs are at Taichu.

All of the combat TFs on duty at Ningpo have replenished, rotating to and from Foochow. And several new TFs have arrived, most significantly the CA Baltimore TF.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/14/2017 12:17:18 AM)

11/26/44

Good day all over. Details on diagram.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/B98B36CF689841C9AC7904D0540A3541.jpg[/image]



witpqs -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/14/2017 12:40:32 AM)

"it'll disappear completely in a week or so."

Looks invisible already!



Crackaces -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/14/2017 3:05:11 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

"it'll disappear completely in a week or so."

Looks invisible already!


I thInk he meant the hex to the south ?



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/14/2017 3:07:30 PM)

Yeah, I emplaced a misdirected circle, thus rendering my colorful diagram misleading.

The rapidly diminishing IJ stack is at Hengyang.



CaptBeefheart -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/15/2017 5:55:36 AM)

Good luck on the China campaign.

I once had an interesting layover in Changsha on the way to Bangkok. When the missus and I checked in at the China Eastern counter in Korea, they told us at Changsha we would have to deplane, get our bags, go through Customs and re-check our bags, all within 45 minutes. It didn't help that our bags came out almost last on the belt and there were about 15 Chinese gals ahead of us in the single Customs line pushing carts overloaded with shopping bags. I wouldn't even have known the city if it weren't for this game. "WITP-AE: Providing geography lessons to grognards since 2009."

Cheers,
CC



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/15/2017 9:38:48 AM)

Early this year, I read Peter Hessler's River Town: Two Years on the Yangtze. It was given to me by a friend who speaks Chinese, went to grad school in Taiwan, and married a Chinese girl. (In fact, he presented the book to me at Bray Fields in the Cohutta Wilderness Area, our lunch stop during a lengthy hike on a cold and windy day in late December, as it happened to be my birthday.)

I enjoyed the book a lot - Hessler is a fine writer. I doubt I'll ever travel in China - heck, there's a good chance I'll never leave the USA at this point - but AE is indeed a magnificent geography lesson.

And with reference to Korea, as background music at work, I often go to YouTube and click on a link to the Seoul Symphony Orchestra's presentation of Tchaikovsky's 6th Symphony. It's a particularly fine performance, IMO. The conductor knows what he's doing and apparently doesn't think the show is all about him, a trait that is becoming more common among conductors these days. He just does his job and does it well.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/15/2017 9:42:29 AM)

11/27/44

For the next six or seven days, Death Star will be in the open. John is following its journey and has a chance to craft a strike if he's so inclined. On the one hand, he'd definitely prefer to tangle with my carriers out in the open, away from my big bases. On the other hand, he's shown a marked reluctance to engage to this point. So I'm watching but not convinced that he'll do anything. Instead of focusing on DS, he may be focusing on Coastal China, on the possibility that he can hit hard there now that DS is far away.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/F482F83DBE894BE6AE4687D5D61CCDC3.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/15/2017 10:03:25 AM)

11/27/44

[image]local://upfiles/8143/644B20FBECC7448EB5B58B3779D10F36.jpg[/image]



jwolf -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/15/2017 12:17:59 PM)

Why do you want to risk the shock attack at Changsha when you can cross the river safely to the SW of the city? Are you in that much of a hurry? [&:]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/15/2017 12:27:33 PM)

I want to close that hex side.

If John had posted a large army at Changsha so that reducing it would take a long time, my plan was to leave several units there while keeping the rest of the offensive. But to do that, I didn't want to have any concerns about John moving further into the interior, creating consternation or problems.




AcePylut -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/15/2017 12:54:29 PM)

I think There's a ratio out there somewhere, where you won't generate a shock attack crossing a river if there is already a "multiplier" higher of AV in the hex. So you could march SE, then into Changsa with the bulk of your army, and only cross over 20AV or so.

I forgot the numbers, but as a hypothetical example, if you have 1000 AV in the hex, then have a 200AV unit cross a river into that hex, it won't generate a shock attack.

At least I think that's how it works (exact numbers notwithstanding).



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