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Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/22/2017 10:43:55 PM)
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Lots of activity is ongoing in John's AAR. Until today, I thought he was working a plan for a big attack in the Formosa region. And he might be. But now I think it more likely that he's chewing over the Allied LOC and possibilities for interdicting Allied supply. Of course, those of you reading John's AAR will know if I way off base. But I like to think out loud because I suppose that would be most interesting to the reader.
We've already been through this scenario once before. The Allied LOC was narrowest at the approach to the Torres Strait. John held the New Guinea bases, including Port Moresby. And then he posted KB near Milne Bay. In reaction, I had to carefully tend my convoys. Mainly, though, I simply diverted them south, unloaded at protected ports like Sydney, let the supply move overland to Normanton on the Gulf of Carpentaria, and those ships then moved to Boela.
The situation at present is better than it was then. Firstly, I have PM now. Secondly, my DEI bases have a stockpile of 600k+ supply, which is the reserve for China/Formosa. Third, China/Formosa will very soon be able to handle local security without DS, so that my carriers can go elsewhere if needed. And fourth, there is a reasonable chance that a new injection of supply won't be need for months - at least two, maybe four.
John and I drew even in the score on August 2, 1944. In slightly more than four months since then, the Allied lead has grown to 30k. By the end of December, the Allies should be at least half way to auto victory.
In other words, it will have taken five months to make it half way to victory. At that pace, the war would draw to a close at the end of May.
But the pace of Allied scoring has increased dramatically since mid September, with a brief hiatus the past week or so to await supply. I think the pace will pick up considerably over coming months.
Since August one, I've brought in two injections of supply totaling about 550k. That was sufficient to handle all the air and ground ops from further back. Now I'm bringing in 1 million plus supply to airfields that are further forward and to an army that has already pummeled the enemy in China.
It's possible it doubling the victory point spread will take double the time (another five months), but I doubt it. I think the projection of victory in February, March or April is on target.
And I do think that incoming supply (assuming it makes it) could possibly fund operations - at least in the air - until the war ends. As for ground ops in China, there's a pretty good chance Rangoon will provide that supply.
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