RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (Full Version)

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Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/26/2017 8:18:44 PM)

John has been caught napping several times as enemy CVE TFs sailed tantalizingly close by without John having any detection on my carriers. Twice I've elected not to pursue, as to my way of thinking Death Star had bigger game to hunt.

John might make a similar mistake in the future. For that to happen, though, I'd have to continue laying low until just the right moment.

In the meantime, Death Star is no longer required for purely defensive purposes. Ningpo, Foochow, and Formosa can stand on their own now, relying on strong CAP and surface combat TFs to guard against enemy attacks by air or by sea (there's still some risk, of course, but it's modest now).

At the moment, Death Star is slowly steaming towards Ningpo, escorting hundreds of merchantmen. John has seen this before dozens of times. DS never does anything drastic or unexpected. Probably (but not certainly) he won't expect anything sudden, at least not in the near term. I have near term plans that may catch him napping.

I think Lowpe knows what I'm thinking. Or, perhaps I should say, he knows what he might do under these circumstances, and on this occasion, at least, our thoughts seem to overlap.



Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/26/2017 9:04:51 PM)

I bet you didn't know that there is no range restriction on fighters sweeping from Carriers?

They don't always fly, but when they do it is a shocker.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/26/2017 9:09:41 PM)

What do you mean no range restriction? Do you mean a Corsair squadron could sweep Tokyo from carriers stationed just off San Francisco?



Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/26/2017 9:10:30 PM)

Not limited to 7 or 8 hexes. You can sweep the full drop tank distance.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/26/2017 9:11:38 PM)

Okay, I read you.



T Rav -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/26/2017 10:22:30 PM)

CR,

Thanks for this great AAR. I read pretty much every day.

T Rav



Bif1961 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/27/2017 1:39:55 AM)

So are you planning a Battle on Monocacy to slow him down enought to be engaged latter by overwhelming force against his KB?



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/27/2017 2:11:29 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Not limited to 7 or 8 hexes. You can sweep the full drop tank distance.


Um, that limit only applied to naval strikes anyway. You could always strike bases from farther. Sweeps are just a different kind of raid.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/27/2017 2:30:35 AM)

12/8/44

Coral Sea: Enemy DD raid continues south. JEB Stuart (three USN DDs) is riding hard to catch up but making the intercept is always tough.


[image]local://upfiles/8143/7ECE3BBFA3B247F3A132DF7414FE5524.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/27/2017 2:41:30 AM)

12/8/44

KB Raid: General Early's little army has arrived on the outskirts of Washington D.C. (Boela). There are earthworks surrounding the city and troops are filing in. Will Early attack?



[image]local://upfiles/8143/0399BB12678C43CCAC02DD457B290E8A.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/27/2017 3:01:30 AM)

12/8/44

Fancy Pants: Two most important things: (1) Supply and reinforcements now coming ashore; and (2) Changsha defenses are not secure - Chinese should take this base inside 10 days.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/32AD2701A8C7406890A238BEE4635AFA.jpg[/image]



JeffroK -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/27/2017 7:45:43 AM)

quote:

I think Lowpe knows what I'm thinking. Or, perhaps I should say, he knows what he might do under these circumstances, and on this occasion, at least, our thoughts seem to overlap.


A quick visit to Ryojun City???/



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/27/2017 4:03:22 PM)

12/9/44

Coral Sea: Early's Maryland campaign continues, but Rosser's cavalry caught up with Wharton's cavalry - meaning, USN DDs tangled with the IJN DDs, sinking one.

To the north, more enemy TFs. I don't know if John is up to anything or not.

John will probably withdraw his DDs - he can't afford to lose any now - unless he has something bigger behind them, like a CA TF or a CV TF. I don't see evidence of that but should know soon.




[image]local://upfiles/8143/859ACD0EF3164B409A597D5AB94B95CC.jpg[/image]



DRF99 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/27/2017 4:10:46 PM)

The Ume, Kuwa, and Maki are all Matsu-class DEs. Slow. Really convoy escorts, not made for surface combat. They didn't have a chance.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/27/2017 4:18:52 PM)

12/9/44

DEI: Boela seems secure, at the moment; enemy carriers retiring to the west; no further air strikes today; and the toll exacted thus far:


[image]local://upfiles/8143/E9716FADAB37483BBC7F2CA5A28DA96E.jpg[/image]



MakeeLearn -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/27/2017 4:23:31 PM)

quote:

...and the toll exacted thus far:




[image]local://upfiles/55056/A93DD058B65F433F871A16169B4D3F1D.jpg[/image]



Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/27/2017 4:36:46 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel


John will probably withdraw his DDs - he can't afford to lose any now - unless he has something bigger behind them, like a CA TF or a CV TF. I don't see evidence of that but should know soon.



If they still have torps, Matsu class can be dangerous. They can skirmish pretty well. Plus they get pretty numerous. Not much to speak of gun wise, but if Japan can get three of them into a convoy you will be sorry. Plus they are only 6 vp. They are usually pretty easy to get a good vp ratio with them.

My preferred use was cap traps against the deathstar as they pack quite a lot of 25mm guns. Put 5-10 of these with a battleship under a land based fighter umbrella and good things happen.[;)]

Looks like that convoy is headed for Rockhampton.[:D]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/27/2017 4:40:19 PM)

12/9/44

Fancy Pants: Japanese resistance is crumbling on the Saigon Front and the Hanoi Front; serious Japanese cracks on the Changsha Front and Kukong Front; only on the Canton Front and Hangchow Front does enemy resistance look organized and capable of putting up a sustained fight.

The problem for Japan is that as each "Front" collapses, Allied units are freed up to reinforce other sectors. The coalescence of force is beginning to snowball.

Death Star: Death Star will move east, with hundreds of fighters (mainly Corsairs) ordered to sweep Nagasaki in conjunction with B-24J raids from Ningpo.

Ningpo airfield still lacks supply, so land-based fighters can't lend a hand (if they could, I'd have ordered B-29s from Formosa to hit the base too).

This is the first try at what should be a sustained campaign to batter both the southern Home Islands and Hangchow/Shanghai by air and by sea.

I wouldn't try this if KB was in the Home Islands.


[image]local://upfiles/8143/AE5D4683F6D848D4A4898D33E9C5B09D.jpg[/image]



Lokasenna -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/27/2017 4:42:54 PM)

Matsu were made to escort KB for me. It diminishes your flank speed (to 27, but if you're including Yamato with the KB for bomb-soaking or AA purposes anyway...), but that's fine. They have Type 2 DCs and decent AA. They free up your "real" DDs for surface duty or other tasks. Even their short endurance of 4750 (IIRC) is not really a drawback given the shorter ranges that occur in 1944/1945.



Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/27/2017 6:32:55 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Matsu were made to escort KB for me. It diminishes your flank speed (to 27, but if you're including Yamato with the KB for bomb-soaking or AA purposes anyway...), but that's fine. They have Type 2 DCs and decent AA. They free up your "real" DDs for surface duty or other tasks. Even their short endurance of 4750 (IIRC) is not really a drawback given the shorter ranges that occur in 1944/1945.


Well, you need a KB to use them, but yes, this is an excellent use of them too.[:)]



JohnDillworth -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/27/2017 6:50:11 PM)

John brought a lot of hardware. I think he was expecting more fish in that barrel.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/27/2017 6:56:59 PM)

John had it well set up, with subs serving as the anvil and KB serving as the hammer. His use of flank speed allowed him to catch up to the tail end of the Allied merchant TFs, inflicting minor damage on the Allied fleet.

The concept of interdicting Allied supply is a good one. To make this scheme work, he should have positioned his Mini KB (the one now north of Manado) in the Timor region. It should have used one day of flank speed to near Saumlaki at the same time KB was using flank speed to pounce through the Torres Strait. This would have caught many more merchantmen. But even that wouldn't have meant anything more than a satisfying punch and a few more victory points.



BillBrown -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/27/2017 7:05:24 PM)

Why bomb resource centers? Doesn't Nagasaki have aircraft factories to bomb? In the AARs I have seen, Japan has millions of resources in the HI by this time.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/27/2017 7:11:09 PM)

Points are more important than anything else at this point of the game. Trying to starve Japan of anything - resources, fuel, aircraft, whatever - is an indirect and uncertain means of strangulation.

I might be able to deny John something like Franks at some point far in the future. But I think smaller, more precise factories (aircraft factories) are harder to hit than more general targets, like Manpower and Resources. At this point, the fastest and most efficient way to victory is to score points by strategic bombing as quickly as possible. Resources seems to be the most efficient subcategory within the Strategic Bombing category.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/27/2017 7:20:01 PM)

Just got the turn in from John, with this email comment: "Wow.  Bet you weren’t sure on orders for this turn.  COOL!"

I'm not sure what he means. The turn was pretty straightforward and didn't involve a lot of uncertainty. Time to run the turn and see what happened.



GetAssista -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/27/2017 7:33:40 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Points are more important than anything else at this point of the game. Trying to starve Japan of anything - resources, fuel, aircraft, whatever - is an indirect and uncertain means of strangulation.

I might be able to deny John something like Franks at some point far in the future. But I think smaller, more precise factories (aircraft factories) are harder to hit than more general targets, like Manpower and Resources. At this point, the fastest and most efficient way to victory is to score points by strategic bombing as quickly as possible. Resources seems to be the most efficient subcategory within the Strategic Bombing category.

There is a finite amount of strategic points to score from weakly defended bases in HI. Would those be enough for victory? If you of course factor in other point sources like LCUS and bases in (Indo)China.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/27/2017 8:15:43 PM)

There should be sufficient points in the Home Islands, especially if land-based fighters, carrier air, and naval bombardments factor into the equation. There's no doubt that strategic bombing has to fund most of the victory points needed to get to 2:1.

If John has new doctrine or new generation aircraft that can really blunt strategic bombing, the next most efficient ways to score points are destroying enemy LCUs, taking bases, and sinking ships in mass quantities (meaning, Death Star on the prowl and hitting hard).

All of those will factor in, but strategic bombing needs to be the bell cow.



Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/27/2017 8:22:26 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There should be sufficient points in the Home Islands, especially if land-based fighters, carrier air, and naval bombardments factor into the equation. There's no doubt that strategic bombing has to fund most of the victory points needed to get to 2:1.

If John has new doctrine or new generation aircraft that can really blunt strategic bombing, the next most efficient ways to score points are destroying enemy LCUs, taking bases, and sinking ships in mass quantities (meaning, Death Star on the prowl and hitting hard).

All of those will factor in, but strategic bombing needs to be the bell cow.



I gave up over 60,000 vp in strategic losses...but Allies started in Feb, broke my fighter back by June, conquered western Honshu and all of Hokkaido lost to auto vic on Jan 1 1945.

I held Osaka and Kobe...just barely. I suffered daily bombardments for at least 6 straight months by around 10 battleships...not to mention heavy cruisers, light cruisers, destroyers and destroyer escorts. Every Allied plane that could carry a bomb hit me, and there seemed no daily slowdown due to supply shortage. 99% of all damage was done during day bombing.

How many VP do you need to reach 2-1?





Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/27/2017 8:25:23 PM)

For two days, John has been flipping turns. That's always fun but the downside is that he'll tail off dramatically once whatever held his interest is finished.

It looks like the KB carrier raid is over....and things are really getting ugly for Japan in China. So he'll probably have a hard time ginning up enthusiasm for awhile. That's my guess anyhow.

I'll post tonight, but here's now things look:

1. Carrier Sweeps and strategic bombing mission vs. Nagasaki: The number suggest the fighters battled to a draw and the bombers did well; underneath the raw numbers, the Corsairs performed excellently, boding ill for Japan in the future. 30 B-24Js knocked out scored 40 Resource hits at 7k in daylight. Pretty good numbers. This is consistent with my generally optimistic views on the future of strategic bombing.

2. John committed another disastrous shock attack. 3rd Tank Div. booted a tank destroyer battalion yesterday, leaving on a small arty fragment in the hex; John chose to shock attack even though he knew USA divisions were inbound; well, they arrived just before today's shock attack, which gutted his division. Tomorrow, the Allied divisions will shock attack. This is a bad result on this Hangchow/Shanghai front, which John needs to hold as long as possible.

3. Japanese resistance in Indochina collapsed today. John is through here.

4. Changsha forts fall to three.

5. Enemy carriers are near Timor; no hits scored vs. Allied shipping today.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (9/27/2017 8:38:38 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I gave up over 60,000 vp in strategic losses...but Allies started in Feb, broke my fighter back by June, conquered western Honshu and all of Hokkaido lost to auto vic on Jan 1 1945.

I held Osaka and Kobe...just barely. I suffered daily bombardments for at least 6 straight months by around 10 battleships...not to mention heavy cruisers, light cruisers, destroyers and destroyer escorts. Every Allied plane that could carry a bomb hit me, and there seemed no daily slowdown due to supply shortage. 99% of all damage was done during day bombing.

How many VP do you need to reach 2-1?



I went through this in a lot of detail a few days back, so the info is pretty fresh.

The score today: Allies 99.9k; Japan 68.2k.

So the Allies lead by 31.7k.

The Allies need roughly 37k to achieve auto victory (if the Japanese score holds steady at around 68k - unlikely, but let's use that for as a best case scenario benchmark).

The score was tied on August 2, 1944. So the Allies have take a 31.7k lead in a little more than four months - call it 130 days. That's roughly 244 points per day. At that rate, the Allies need 151 days to achieve auto victory. So, five months = end of May 1945.

But the Allied scoring pace is accelerating. Strategic bombing really didn't begin until mid September. And the collapse of the Japanese army in Indochina and China is accelerating the rate of LCU and Base points.

I expect the accelerated rate to continue. Supply has just come in to fully fund Allied strategic bombing; Death Star is no longer tethered to defense; and China should be a strong generator of LCU points for quite some time to come.

The wildcard is naval assets. One side or the other could score a lot of points quickly by winning a lopsided naval battle. So I need to watch that carefully.

I expect the war in the air to remain fairly tight for quite some time to come.

So, Strategic Bombing is the most efficient way to score. And given what's transpired since August 2 (and September 15), I think things are on schedule for a Spring '45 victory (or sooner).




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