RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (Full Version)

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Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 3:42:11 PM)

1/11/45

Carriers: If KB remains on station one more day, my carriers will have the angle. Whether John remains in position, I just don't know. I still think 50/50.

If his carriers do begin to retire, it's going to be a close thing. If he catches wind of my carriers, he'll probably be able to avoid a clash, if he wishes to. If he doesn't catch wind, my carriers may be able to strike.

And no matter what, the odds of my carriers hitting his AO TF is increasing. If his AOs don't retire tomorrow, I think such a clash becomes likely.

Is all this worth it? Is what I've already expended (TKs and DEs) worth it?

I'm not sure it is, but I wanted to develop the possibilities as best I could.

Had John's sent a massive CV TF with 350 aircraft, I would've long since evacuated Pago Pago. I wouldn't have lost a single ship. But the chance for a clash out here, where he's far from home, possibly low on ammo, possibly with wearied pilots or depleted squadrons, while my guys were fresh and had much more info (detection), seemed like a scenario worth exploring fully.

I haven't lost anything I'll miss in the least. But if this devolves, John will be crowing about a success that was nothing more than a ridiculous gamble. I'll have fed the monster in him - the inveterate raider - for better or worse, in games yet to come. So potential future opponents of John's may still have the pleasure of dealing with his raiding.


[image]local://upfiles/8143/D4D23C4E994C4BF28117956D77BAADF3.jpg[/image]



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 3:48:43 PM)

2:1, man. 2:1



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 4:05:02 PM)

1/11/45

Fancy Pants: Shanghai falls.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/31952FB0837C40458584AB1FE0053515.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 4:07:00 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
2:1, man. 2:1


I haven't lost site of 2:1. That's all I think about.

I've thought from the beginning of this carrier raid that there was an equation that could lead to a nice victory. I had to make a rather costly deposit to further that equation. It's no guarantee outcome, even if I draw the carrier battle. But it's fun trying to work this out.



HansBolter -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 5:16:31 PM)

On the CVE in an Escort TF with APDs, are you sure you will get flight ops from the CVE?

I didn't think you could get flight ops unless the carrier is in an Air Combat TF.

You may have to reconfigure to an Air Combat TF by removing the APDs.

Can't say for certain as I have never tried it.



Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 5:33:08 PM)

I believe you get full flight ops of a CVE task force -- they exist as a form so the AI can better use air operations task forces with proper ships.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 6:03:01 PM)

1/12/45

KB East: Yowza: 10 hexes separate KB East and my carriers.

Would you or wouldn't you?

I'll post more later, but suffice to say no raid on Pago Pago today. KB is retiring, though a bit slowly and on a more northerly course than anticpated.

Tough decision, this. I've worked to create this opportunity but it is by no means optimal. Prudence or boldness here? What does the game call for? What does the war call for?


[image]local://upfiles/8143/C25B0D65C28747EAB2CC43372CBF6F39.jpg[/image]



BBfanboy -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 6:11:26 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

1/12/45

KB East: Yowza: 10 hexes separate KB East and my carriers.

Would you or wouldn't you?

I'll post more later, but suffice to say no raid on Pago Pago today. KB is retiring, though a bit slowly and on a more northerly course than anticpated.

Tough decision, this. I've worked to create this opportunity but it is by no means optimal. Prudence or boldness here? What does the game call for? What does the war call for?


If you go bold, try to concentrate your forces such that they do not get distracted by the AO TF. In fact you might bring your CVE/APD TF in from behind KB to split his strikes or, if he does not detect it, to get a little backstab in.



Flicker -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 6:20:22 PM)

L'audace!



paullus99 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 6:25:43 PM)

I suspect that CR will turn away on this one - although, it would certainly be doing the unexpected, if he did decide to accept battle.

Very reminiscent of the Battle of Wake, where John stepped into the abyss without knowing if there was anything there.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 7:03:13 PM)

1/12/45

KB East: Orders entered, as follows.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/592A50F133D642C9833CBE7BD6992022.jpg[/image]



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 7:09:06 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel


Tough decision, this. I've worked to create this opportunity but it is by no means optimal. Prudence or boldness here? What does the game call for? What does the war call for?




Best case, 100% loss of all his forces, 0% yours, what do you gain in VPs? What is that relative to other VP opportunities tomorrow? Next week?

Middle case, 50% loss by both of you. He wins on a 2:1 basis and prolongs the game.

Worst case, 0% loss to him, 100% loss to you. How many VPs? x2 to regain status quo. What capabilities do you lose permanently?

The thing I would consider is the date. Dinking around with things like this, or going to Manchuria, getting some, giving some (always at x2), while you creep closer to June 1 without ending this thing. Then you're one summer away from losing any chance of a decisive.

End it. You have the tools and position in Asia to finish the game. Then he can start another, you can focus on your other, or start a second. But this is over. You're just fiddling because you (and he) like to maneuver TFs. That may be fun, but it's not the goal. The goal is to beat Japan. Taking Shanghai is a HUGE move forward in position, AF capability, supply dumpage, and the ability to crank the bombing campaign into 5th gear. Sanitize the region around Shanghai, move in the tonnage, and then the planes, and burn him down. End of game. End of story.

This is a frolic.



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 7:09:43 PM)

Overcome by time again. [8D]



witpqs -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 7:22:30 PM)

I didn't notice if you said the CVE is spotted. At any rate if he has rendezvoused with the oilers to refuel you just gave a turn to do that without being in range of Allied carriers. [&:]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 7:24:21 PM)

Somehow, Moose, you have developed an idea that this is the main show and that I'm giving it the bulk of my attention. That's not the case. I figured the peanut gallery is most interested in this, a change of pace from day after day and map after map of Coastal China.

But Coastal China is getting the vast majority of my attention. It's clearly the seat of the war. And what's going on in the Pacific won't change what happens in China. It won't slow me down there. It's not diverting units I need to have there. And it's not affecting supply delivery. (I've gone into these things in detail over recent days and months, so I won't delve into it here in detail).

Coastal China is the heart of things.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 7:27:25 PM)

1/12/45

Fancy Pants: Reduction of enemy positions at Shanghai, Nanking, and Lang Son proceeding well. And I'm about to find out if Hong Kong has teeth.

P.S. I mentioned Lang Son. It's important, because once 116th Div. evaporates, a bunch of units are free to help with garrison duty in China or lassoing all those enemy units moving about.


[image]local://upfiles/8143/ADB269D889C549808EF4AA8DABEFDCEB.jpg[/image]



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 7:30:36 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Somehow, Moose, you have developed an idea that this is the main show and that I'm giving it the bulk of my attention. That's not the case. I figured the peanut gallery is most interested in this, a change of pace from day after day and map after map of Coastal China.

But Coastal China is getting the vast majority of my attention. It's clearly the seat of the war. And what's going on in the Pacific won't change what happens in China. It won't slow me down there. It's not diverting units I need to have there. And it's not affecting supply delivery. (I've gone into these things in detail over recent days and months, so I won't delve into it here in detail).

Coastal China is the heart of things.



A VP lost anywhere is a VP lost. This is a high risk op relative to strat bombing. If you have a disaster here and lose several thousand VPs, that affects China. You're on a timetable; he isn't.



Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 7:36:37 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

End it. You have the tools and position in Asia to finish the game. Then he can start another, you can focus on your other, or start a second. But this is over. You're just fiddling because you (and he) like to maneuver TFs. That may be fun, but it's not the goal. ...

This is a frolic.



This.



DRF99 -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 7:47:12 PM)

J3 seems to split up the KB into 3 or 4 groups that operate independently.

Is the DS big enough at this date that you could split it in two (not necessarily evenly) so that one DS group would be strong enough to take on and beat one or two of KB's separate groups?



Lowpe -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 7:49:38 PM)

I think Bullwinkle is frustrated. Japan has been on the ropes since before Luzon fell.

To give away a fair bit of ships sunk, to achieve a relative parity CV clash in Jan of 1945 quite frankly is a frolic or worse.

Doesn't really matter what happens in China...what matters is getting fighter bases closer to Honshu and figuring out how you can rack up 1000 vp days thru a focused air campaign. Or at least I would think that, given you have repeatedly stated strategic bombing is goal 1.

There are a lot of ways for the Allies to win...and you like keeping surprises.



AcePylut -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 8:28:16 PM)

What's the largest size ship you can steam up the river to Wuchang? Got any xAKL's about that can spring a "fun" surprise on J3?



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 8:31:38 PM)

Wuchang should be cut off soon, long before I could put together an amphibious op.

I do think the China Plains are about to resemble France in the late summer of 1944. The Allies kept trying to put together a parachute assault, but the army advanced so fast that it kept overrunning the assault targets before the plan could come to fruition. I think/hope that's what's going to happen here.



MakeeLearn -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 9:29:25 PM)

Did Japan bomb Pearl Harbor or did China drop the Petrol Dollar! [;)]


Are Japan's cities ashes?

Are ships coming and going out of her ports?



crsutton -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 9:47:19 PM)

At this stage, I would go after him. You can afford to lose a carrier battle and he can't. Simple. If you are just playing for VP, then you are just playing to bore me...[:D]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 10:05:29 PM)

1/13/45

KB East: KB is continuing west, rather slowly, and without detection on my guys. I've decided to pull the trigger.

The orders were entered, the turn sent, and then I checked here. crsutton's thoughts pretty much reflect mine. This is a tight squeeze but every now and then I want to take a chance.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/A2DCA1A8D394467DA00D99E05F4AFD23.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 10:33:57 PM)

1/14/45

Fancy Pants: The Allies clear Lang Son (116th Div. evaporates), Shanghai should be clear of opposition in two to four days, and John pulled his only decent fighting unit out of Nanking.

About the AAR: I understand the frustrations and sentiments expressed by some Forumites. A few comments sorta got under my skin. But I consider just about every person in the Forum a friend, whether your know it or not, whether you want me to or not. The Forum is a unique and incredible group of people from all over. So I'll just leave it as: Thank you for reading.

About China: Lowpe is a good guy and smart player, but I disagree with him about China in my game. I'm operating based on my experience level and what I perceive about the game. Strategic Bombing will get the Lion's Share of the credit for the eventual victory. There's still a lot of SB to come. But China will also contribute efficiently and materially to the harvesting of VP. John's army is in tatters. Huge groups are isolated worth hundreds (thousands?) of VP. My guys an efficiently (at low cost and at low opportunity cost) get those VPs. And there are lots of bases out there that can be built big, worth a good number of points.

But the whole idea is to press forward, seizing (eventually) Allied airfields for SB purposes, trying to break the back of the Japanese army, and seeing if Russia will activate (I won't go out of my way, but as long as I'm in the neighborhood....)

As for the KB Raid: I didn't give those points away. I knowingly offered them as a sacrifice. In return, I whittled John's carrier aircraft appreciably and reduced his ammo loads. I understand that may be investments in a stock (a carrier clash) that bodes ill....but I just wanted to see if I could work it out. I've played this game pretty carefully, most of the time, but here was a case where I felt I might be able to work an advantage. We may know soon if I was having a bad day.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/67D74F183B174BCCB761C22B99457FBB.jpg[/image]



MakeeLearn -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 10:55:19 PM)

quote:

About the AAR: I understand the frustrations and sentiments expressed by some Forumites. A few comments sorta got under my skin. But I consider just about every person in the Forum a friend, whether your know it or not, whether you want me to or not. The Forum is a unique and incredible group of people from all over. So I'll just leave it as: Thank you for reading.


Hope I didnt do that. I have to be careful in what I write since I read both AARs. I like to see different strategies, not the same recipe over and over. Not critiquing. Asking questions that "cut" to clarify. I took the the position of FDR asking about the running of the war.



Canoerebel -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 11:05:38 PM)

No, it wasn't.

To clarify: One time, years ago, a Forumite told me that he felt the forum sometimes got "tone deaf." That occasionally comments were made in AARs that were shrill or critical or insensitive or rude.

I've seen that on rare occasions in this AAR and in others. It's always a surprise. Sometimes, there is a history between two Forumites - both good men, who have managed to rub each other the wrong way over the years. Other times it's a guy who doesn't realize how his comments might come across to others or to the Keeper of the AAR.

I've seen some pretty crazy things. I've had at least one good man accuse me of cheating. I've had people tell me they were bored by my AAR, or that I was "plodding," or other descriptive words that suggested pretty clearly that they thought I was pretty dim and that somebody else could do a lot better job with the game.

Sometimes, I think the AAR is like waving a red flag in front of a bull. I put a lot of time and content out there. I like doing it. But I think it may irritate a few folks. They may feel I'm taking this way too seriously.

What can I say? I don't have a television, so I spend a lot of time doing this.



MakeeLearn -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 11:15:57 PM)

quote:

I don't have a television


Been several years since I stopped TVing. Enlightening.



MakeeLearn -> RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent (10/27/2017 11:18:06 PM)


Consider the comments on a AAR as the political flak you would take as a military commander.



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