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Walloc -> RE: Why is it non-historical that the Soviets could have run? (8/27/2013 11:29:25 PM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Pelton
The problem Walloc and Flaviusx knows this and I am sure 2by3 does also.
IF there is no Lvov pocket the game is over turn 1.
SHC will simply run.
Says whom? and even if so why?
Actually we have some fact into what happens when the russians can gain any thing from staying. During the increased moral, not that this didnt cause other problem u actually have several example of ppl and staying to fight. Did they fight too good sure but if ppl have any thing to gain from staying they stay. If not, if they are just throwing troops away gaining nada, they run. Its clear if u have nothing to gain sure they will run as in if Lvov has happened or with current engine where u gain no time by sacrificing troops. Several have even mentioned these games during the increased moral periode to be their most intense fights.
Not only that , you ur self has shown what can happen to guy that runs to far. As in ur game vs Hugh. Problem is ppl have no other choice than to run as is.
U gain nada for staying, no german losses, no time is gained if against any one with the slighest ability as german.
quote:
ORIGINAL: Pelton
As I have stated at least 85% of the games end by March 42 as both players know based on past AAR's that SHC will be in Berlin in Dec 44 or Jan 45, EVEN if GHC does better then historical by taking Leningrad.
Problem is because u state it it doesnt make it so. Not that many games do go for the long run, sure. Non the less we have some examples of them. 1 from a gamer that him self says he isnt eaxctly top of the line. Terje had a disaterous 41 far from doing better than historical and not to good a 42 non the less even with the semi collapses as of late the advances of the russians arent particular more than the historic time line. I doubt but i guess we will see if the germans are in Berlin in dec 44 this by a self admoted average player having a clearly subpar 41 and 42. Problem is that ppl is being told less they do magnicificantly they cant win and some of them abandon the game never actaully learn some basics of german defences.
Have we seen game that theoritically could be over by 43 with germans in Berlin. Well ppl tend to abandon the game before but clearly a game as sappers vs smokingdave it would have been a possibility. Cant really supprise any one that sapper is doing better tho as he wins all his game as german side too. So this happen/could possibly happen in the case of a top player playing the russian side just as when they play the german side they migth win a AV aka major victory too.
I do think its to hard to get a draw by current victory conditions as they arent tailor suited to history, sure. Being in Berlin in may 45 or how much before or after should be the yard stick. That said the community gotten the VC altered once before so it obviously can happen.
quote:
ORIGINAL: Pelton
WitE is right now as good as it will be under the current engine.
Agreed as we all know nothing major is gona happen.
quote:
ORIGINAL: Pelton
A handful of GHC players can win or draw because they know the fuel or morale systems better then anyone.
Thats an increasing handfull and if ppl stop the game in march 42 then they never get the skills to defend and see how long they can actually prolong the game trying to get a draw. Im pretty sure Terje wouldnt say that he is in that handfull and still with a subpar both 41 and 42 the game will go into 45.
One can only speculate if he had done better in 41 and 42 how much longer he couldnt hold, but if ppl are being told they are dead in 42 if they dont do better than historic they arent gona try. There never know if they can do better and never gets any experince and skill in defending as german.
quote:
ORIGINAL: Pelton
95% or more of the people playing this game have no chance of drawing or winning as Germany vs a below average SHC player.
I agree that the VC should be changed so u get a better meassurement against history. Do the russian reach Berlin in may 45 or before/after and they arent currently.
Terje did not do better than history and lets see if the russian is in Berlin come feb 45.
quote:
ORIGINAL: Pelton
Walloc my statement is a fact, for most people the game is broken for GHC players. They can do far better then historical and lose by February 45.
Prove it. Show me the AARs from the year and a half after 1.04 where any german player has done far better than historical and lost by feb 45 as in being in Berlin.
The only i can think of is Farfarers and he purposely wanetd to test out mobile defenses and tried to make 41 like pockets in 43/44 instead of trying to defend. A bad idea and it didnt work. So let me rephase. Show me the AARs where the germans has done far better than historical and lost by feb 45 where they actually tries and defends?
quote:
ORIGINAL: Pelton
Germany went from Kiev to Rostov in a few weeks and were 100's and 100's of miles past railheads.
Sighs, no they didnt. The drive started from the lower Dneiper. 24'ish hexes in game from Rostov. After taking a 3 week break from arriving there, while the encirclement of Kiev pocket is underway. Then they start the drive again 12th September and cross the Mius at the 17th Oct and arriving at Rostov 15-17th Nov and taking Rostov on the 21st Nov. Thats 24 hexes in 2 months 9 days or 9-10 turns tho these include mud seasons for an average of 2.67-2.4 hexes per turn. Even rail can keep up in mud with that.
Not only did they have to stop a 3 weeks to resupply/wait for the Kiev pocket form and they didnt advance from Kiev, but from Dnieper to Rostov at an average of 2.67-2.4 hexes per turn. Not to say the troops involved at Kiev wasnt any where near. it was the 11th army and rumenians that did the drive to Rostov.
Inclosed map added to post.
quote:
ORIGINAL: Pelton
The HUGE problem for 2by3 is Germany could and did require far less troops, equipment, ammo and supplies to do what Russia/America/England could do.
Isnst that why the germans consistantly have much higher exp and moral. With all that includes for example paying down to 2 MP extra for entering enemy hexes where u at 49 moral pays 2½ times that?
Isnt that why the axis side tho lower in men actually advances to the brink of Moscow and at times beyond in game?
quote:
ORIGINAL: Pelton
Its almost like there would have to be 2 logistic system for both sides.
Yes that is why the germans historicly stopped at several times during 41 for supply reasons to catch up, which is rarely teh case if ever in game. Cuz their supply system was infinitely better than for example the American army's one, and it wasnt notorisouly known for being teh achilles heal of the german army.........
Not that game isnt know from its logistic issues that affects both sides so both sides have a much to high ops tempo.
quote:
ORIGINAL: Pelton
——————German——————-Russian————Ratio
1941
3rd—————551,000——————2,795,000———-5 to 1
4th—————280,000——————1,598,000———-5.7to 1
1942
1st—————280,000——————1,686,000———-6 to 1
2nd—————220,000——————1,395,000———-6.3 to 1
3rd—————383,000——————2,371,000———-6 to 1
4th—————177,000——————1,281,000———-7.2 to 1
1943
1st—————498,000——————1,908,000———3.8 to 1
2nd—————110,000——————444,000———-4 to 1
3rd—————533,000——————2,633,000———-5 to 1
4th—————381,000——————1,939,000———-5 to 1
1944
1st—————423,000——————1,859,000———-4.4 to 1
2nd—————352,000——————1,021,000———-3 to 1
3rd—————879,000——————1,771,000———-2 to 1
4th—————297,000——————1,086,000———-3.6 to 1
Where wite falls horribly short is the combat ratios in 42 and 43. I have bitched about this from day one.
Currently wite in 42 and 43 the combat ratio is 2.5 to 1. That's not even close to historical. There were very few pockets in 42+43.
This is the core issue that's screwing wite.
IF IF IF the engine was reflective of historical combat ratio's then you could dump the Lvov pocket, the Middle Earth Blizzard and "fix" the logistics system.
My issue with WitW is the current engine will work fine because the lose ratio in the west was 2.5 to 1 (throwing out surrenders), but will do nothing to fix wite 2.0. Nerfing logistic will simply make for WW1 on the Eastern Front.
Not that we havent been over this before. First off those numbers arent paricular right, they are decidedly misleading.
First its only the heer losses, so with out LW and SS. The russian numbers includes all. Navy, army, border troops, partisan and so on.
Then u leave out the axxis minors that the russians fought too and killled russians too.
lLst but not the least u fergot to mention as always that the russian side doesnt recive the historic replacement/Manpower mobilization. If they are to take historic losses and only recieves 50-60% of the historic manpower there is no game as there are no russian army left.
Why arent u quite right about the numbers. Cuz of the way the germans calculate losses, not that u could necesarrily know that. For example frost bites arent included in the "blutige verlüste" which becomes a big factor and why for example the 3rd quater losses in ur numbers seems so low.
This means if u look at what the Ostheer actually losses/leaves it is much higher. Example u cite the 4th quater 41 to 280k where as the real nunber is 438,905 more than 1½ times higher.
Ur number by end of 1st quater 42 is 1.111.000 where as the ostheer alone had lost 1.650.151, add axis minors and so on and ur odds are off by a margin.
When u look at the russian numbers such are included. So the numbers ur using are not directly compareble.
In the next post is included a chart of losses including all.
Kind regards,
Rasmus
[image]local://upfiles/22745/DE10A3AC58F84E6DA9A54F8546BCBB7C.jpg[/image]
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