Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (Full Version)

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rmonical -> Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/12/2013 5:28:59 PM)

I went ahead and attacked the same cav division 9 times after the first remarkable result. The defending unit reports to STAVKA which I assume is some 30 hexes away. The initial to final CV multiplier for each attack was.
174 30 580%
68 26 262%
37 24 154%
31 22 141%
15 20 75%
7 11 64%
5 10 50%
13 8 163%
11 7 157%

In another PBEM game, I just reviewed a number of my counterattacks in 1941 against German units. In no case was the modified CV of the defending unit 200% of the original, much less 580%. In most of the cases, the modified CV of the defending German unit was less than the original shown. In one case, I reran the attack dozens of times and in every case, the modified CV of the defending German units was less than the original shown. It turns out the German commander running the defense was one of their best (Rendulic). The corps HQ was 4 hexes away and not overloaded. The starting CV is 340 and the modified CV ran from 200 to 338. This was turn 15.The stack was attacked from 5 sides but was not isolated; does that effect MCV?

1. What contributes to the 580% modifier shown in the first attack? Why are the modifiers so benign after the first two attacks?
2. How can the defending German stack never receive a CV bonus?


[image]local://upfiles/38006/E6633C4E4B4249D4AB6431D5C66F896F.jpg[/image]




Bozo_the_Clown -> RE: Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/12/2013 5:43:15 PM)

Are these results from our game? I think I remember that cavalry unit. I parked it in the swamp to block your advance. I guess terrain has a major effect on combat. However, the results look absurd. Especially, since you are attacking with the support of 100 bombers. Are these hasty attacks?




Helpless -> RE: Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/12/2013 5:50:01 PM)

There is no multiplier.

On counter CV and modified CV are calculated totally different ways.

Defender's CV id fogged, so it can vary a lot from the real one.

There is no difference on the way how CV is calculated for the various sides.





Schmart -> RE: Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/12/2013 6:46:06 PM)

1. Terrain does have an effect on CV. That Russian Cav Div starts out in a swamp hex. Swamps can give pretty big defensive bonuses. Especially in 1941 when the German player is used to easily pushing back 1-1 ants, swamps can sometimes be a nasty surprise. After the first few attacks, the Cav Div has been disrupted and fatigued, making it easier to dislodge.

2. I think you mean to say the German attacking stack? In which case as your screenshots show, they do often get modified CV increases. I think these things depend on leader rolls, SU commitment, supply, fatigue, hasty vs deliberate attacks, etc.




rmonical -> RE: Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/12/2013 7:09:02 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Helpless
There is no multiplier.

On counter CV and modified CV are calculated totally different ways.

Defender's CV id fogged, so it can vary a lot from the real one.

There is no difference on the way how CV is calculated for the various sides.

In the combat results screen for the first combat (30->174) is the original CV value shown for the Soviet (30) fogged or calculated?

I understand there is no multiplier. There is a calculation of modified CV that in the first cases, happens to be 580% of the displayed CV.

In this server game as German, I see a lot of combats where the final calculated CV for the Soviet unit is 300% to 580% higher than the CV. In my PBEM game as Soviet, in the handful of attacks I made, the difference between the German CV and MCV was generally in the range of 60% to 150% and usually below 100%.

So my very specific question is what factors would contribute to the situation where the defending stack's MCV is always less than the CV no matter how effective the commander. I have run this attack dozens of times and the MCV is never greater than the CV.



[image]local://upfiles/38006/A508E262F3B34CC89B4F2D8021DCB2A9.jpg[/image]




rmonical -> RE: Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/12/2013 7:24:28 PM)

Ran the combat again and saved. Both views of this combat result are the same.

[image]local://upfiles/38006/63171313B6D14E439C0094E3C6497112.jpg[/image]




gingerbread -> RE: Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/12/2013 7:26:45 PM)

Ground elements that have taken fire combat losses & disruptions does not contribute to MCV.




Bozo_the_Clown -> RE: Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/12/2013 7:31:08 PM)

In our game I made three counterattacks on turn 7. They were all against units in clear terrain. All attacks were with units from one army and there was huge numerical superiority. Do you have screenshots of those attacks? It would be interesting to see the MCV of those attacks.

Sorry, I didn't make screenshots.




Helpless -> RE: Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/12/2013 7:36:09 PM)

quote:

In the combat results screen for the first combat (30->174) is the original CV value shown for the Soviet (30) fogged or calculated?


fogged

quote:


In this server game as German, I see a lot of combats where the final calculated CV for the Soviet unit is 300% to 580% higher than the CV. In my PBEM game as Soviet, in the handful of attacks I made, the difference between the German CV and MCV was generally in the range of 60% to 150% and usually below 100%.


The difference how CV and MCV are calculated is very significant. They are not even on the same level of magnitude. This is all related to the difference applying modifiers for the MCV and CV.




morvael -> RE: Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/12/2013 7:39:52 PM)

Fort level went down, so the MCV went down as well.




morvael -> RE: Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/12/2013 7:52:25 PM)

By the way, I think WitE formulas, with good random rolls, will allow for a serious inflating of CV during combat, though if x6 is in reach I'm not sure.




rmonical -> RE: Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/12/2013 9:07:38 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: morvael
Fort level went down, so the MCV went down as well.

I ran a few variations on this attack. In the first case, the same corps (with a little rearranging and reinforcement), counterattacks. The attacking MCV is 249% of the CV. The defending fort goes away and yet the Soviet defending MCV is still higher than the CV.

Next I reduced the attacking force to what would let the stack hold. Attacking with three strong divisions fails, but still eliminates the fort.

Attacking with three weak divisions allows the fort to hold.

After the fort is reduced with three divisions, the next combat shows the expected results.

Trying to find the minimum force that would win, three strong and three weak divisions would usually fail, but I did get one extreme outlier shown in the next combat.

Finally, I ran a few tests to confirm that six strong rifle divisions were enough to dislodge the (dug in) German panzer corps.

Something just seems off here. Where is Rendulic? Do German defenders get leader bonuses in summer 1941?


[image]local://upfiles/38006/854F194483B84A378817DFEDD16509DC.jpg[/image]




morvael -> RE: Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/12/2013 9:25:11 PM)

Element number advantage. Those units are stronger than their CV shows. A flaw of the system. Partially addressed in WitW, after I have shown a special test case scenario with 3 situations of 6 CV unit vs 8 CV unit (6CV but increased due to then-present defense bonus), with identical leaders, identical equipment and supply but different number of elements offset by morale and experience. Unit with 2x the number of elements (ge rifle squads to be precise) won about 80% of the time (in 30 trials with full random), whereas with equal elements 6.67%, and at a disadvantage 0%. This is what gives the Soviet side an advantage - huge numbers of elements firing and causing death and destruction not proportional to their impact on CV.




morvael -> RE: Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/12/2013 9:36:37 PM)

This can be seen on a simple example: at equal morale and experience a Tiger is worth 0.09 CV as is T-34. In a 1:1 combat the Tiger will win most of the time, as fire combat depends on armor, gun etc. The same applies other way round. With proper morale and experience adjustment you can make 1 Tiger worth 25 T-34 in CV, but they will win most of the time due to volume of fire. Remember, CV is not something like strength on board game counters. It's far from it, as it's only one component of the combat system. It decides how long the combat will last (until the ratio will not become too unfavourable) and whether there will be retreat. But the fire combat decides how much that CV will change during combat (and a lot of random rolls, some unfortunately more important than others like a single failed leader skill roll which can cause CV to drop by half). You can't rely on CV only, you must always take element numbers into consideration. This makes combat in this series an art or magic, to get a feel for it, you need a lot of experience and a sixth sense.




Michael T -> RE: Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/12/2013 10:04:41 PM)

quote:

This makes combat in this series an art or magic, to get a feel for it, you need a lot of experience and a sixth sense.



So true.




Mike13z50 -> RE: Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/12/2013 10:08:10 PM)

I've noticed that 3 Sov Corps will almost always retreat 1 Ger Div, no matter what the CV says. Likewise 3 Sov Div will retreate 1 Ger Regiment.

This explains why.




rmonical -> RE: Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/12/2013 11:15:47 PM)

quote:

Element number advantage. Those units are stronger than their CV shows.


So when the Soviets attack with a large number of units, the element advantage is reflected in the Soviet MCV or the element disadvantage reflected in the German MCV? Looking at the current game as German, I routinely see Soviet defending MCVs 200% to 400% greater than their CVs in the absence of terrain and fortification effects. As can be seen, there is no element advantage in most cases. I'm still looking for my first '41 Soviet attack in either game where the German MCV is 200% of CV (I did find a Hungarian defense where the MCV was 200% of CV).

I looked through some old '42 PBEM turns. Same thing - German defenders never get a 4x bump (small sample) of MCV verses CV.




Michael T -> RE: Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/12/2013 11:27:57 PM)

There comes a point where CV makes no difference and the only thing that matters is numbers. Big advantage for the Reds.




Walloc -> RE: Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/13/2013 12:17:24 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: rmonical

quote:

Element number advantage. Those units are stronger than their CV shows.


So when the Soviets attack with a large number of units, the element advantage is reflected in the Soviet MCV or the element disadvantage reflected in the German MCV? Looking at the current game as German, I routinely see Soviet defending MCVs 200% to 400% greater than their CVs in the absence of terrain and fortification effects. As can be seen, there is no element advantage in most cases. I'm still looking for my first '41 Soviet attack in either game where the German MCV is 200% of CV (I did find a Hungarian defense where the MCV was 200% of CV).

I looked through some old '42 PBEM turns. Same thing - German defenders never get a 4x bump (small sample) of MCV verses CV.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Michael T

There comes a point where CV makes no difference and the only thing that matters is numbers. Big advantage for the Reds.


Yup, as i wrote about in my combat system synopsis a year and a year and a half ago. The attacking side has an inherit advanatage in the wite system. U can attack from more hexes in almost all cases so depending on reserve activation u usually bound to have more elements. See more in the synopsis for numbers and maths. Add the larger russian units later on, well the math gets worse. Also as the attacker ur the phasing side, so u can adjust ur HQs better for better rolls too.
Too some extend u need the effect to get the ball rolling later on as russians as the german has better CV from having higher moral and exp so u need some thing to offset that advanatage.

Any how its the same effect u see when ppl take Leningrad or Moscow even if fortified with a few 1000s men as losses. The ability of concentrating firepower/mass of elements on hexes/attacks.


Very few board games has 2-1 as good odds and then u get the possibilty of removing forts and use mass of firepower too as its MCV that counts. While there in the system is limits on the firepower u can use as the attacker. If u an just equal the defender in losses as u have more elements as the attacker, having equal disrupted/damage/killed troop then pushes the MCV in ur direction.
Futher more the system is very 2-1 centric meaning there is no real advanatage to try and get 6-1 or 10-1 odd as in most other games. Where the higher the odd u get usualy it translate into some form of less casulties on the attacker/higher on defend given rolls. At leased the effect of higher odds is minimal in wite, i've never heard of any going for it cuz they thot they'd get an advanatge out of it.
German ops tempo live off this in 41/42 too if u know how to use it. Why use airpower to get 6-1 odds if u can live off 2-1 odds. There is no incentive to get higher odds so why use needless force. Not only that, u even get if u fall below 2-1 odds a chance of a recce result so the incentive is more on going at only just needed force to get 2-1 than for going higher.

Cest la vie,

Rasmus




Bozo_the_Clown -> RE: Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/13/2013 4:11:53 AM)

I' adding a couple of screenshots from T8 in my game with rmonical because I find the topic interesting. We all agree that the combat system is somewhat opaque and relies on intuition. This, in my opinion, is much easier for the Soviets. The following attacks are typical for SHC. Get as many units as possible from the same army to attack exposed tank and mech units in clear terrain. Preferably in front of other stacks of Axis units so that the retreating units rout.

I leave it to others to explain what exactly happens during these attacks.





[image]local://upfiles/45102/F958D9294CA74745B189A90D34752F00.jpg[/image]




Bozo_the_Clown -> RE: Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/13/2013 4:13:15 AM)

And another one. I've never had this fail. Also, I always bomb the hell out of the units before I attack. Not sure how much that matters.





[image]local://upfiles/45102/7BD4D2BBF82E4F9A9F84BED0B0B84563.jpg[/image]




Bozo_the_Clown -> RE: Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/13/2013 4:16:50 AM)

I do not know how to explain the failed attack on my cavalry division he posted at the beginning of this thread. I believe it was a hasty attack across a minor river against a unit in swamp terrain. Not ideal conditions for an attack. But I just don't know how this exactly influences the MCV.




Toidi -> RE: Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/13/2013 4:46:20 AM)

I have experienced Soviet modified cv swelling many times (by 200-500%), and I cannot explain it. I tried linking it to:

1) supply status (works to certain degree, with the 'red' supply units it is less common, but still can happen)
2) amount of artillery (no, does not seem to have direct correlation)
3) number of elements (no, despite the discussion here, there is no correlation, I got regiments of 3000 being attacked by divisions and the initial 5:1 odds were not good enough)

On the other hand, it happens almost exclusively in swamps and thick forests, where the x3 modifier is present. My feeling is that there may be a kind of unusual behaviour of the battle engine, as it does not happen to all units (cavalry is prime example of the unit where it can happen - whereas in most terrains the cavalry modified cv is usually lower, in those terrains it is usually higher); also, when it happens once, it does happen to those units relatively consistently. Once attacked with sufficient force (say 6:1 initial odds), suddenly this behaviour is not present anymore, leading to 20:1 victories...

The other issue I commonly experience is the overestimation of tanks when defending. It seems that tank CV is maybe 2x too high when defending, and a bit low on the offensive. Again, I do not know why, but that is what my experience has shown. I guess the battle engine again does some funny things there and treats offensive and defensive battles differently.

All in all, I would very much welcome a feature which would imprecisely suggest a result of a battle (with some degree of chance) against opponent, and the result of a defense against opponent when they attack. That would make the game much nicer to play, and some of the most unusual behaviours of the battle engine would be kind of circumvented. I would even agree to that that such a simulated battle would cost one political point or that only a limited number of those battles (due, for example, limited special intelligence forces required) could be simulated each turn (I would say 1 for Soviets in '41, 1 for Germans during '41-'42 blizzard, 3 for both Germans and Soviets at other times). I guess it would be easy to implement - just instead of actually doing the battle on attack, simulate the battle in the engine without changing the units in the end - and do it say 5 or 10 times, display chances of winning...

Of course, I would be most happy if the battle engine would be more transparent and some graphical interpretation of what was happening and how the final cv was obtained was given. That is, though, probably too much to ask... but the solution above may be done in really short time (also note that a dedicated player can already do it in the editor, but a usual player would never bother).

T.




rmonical -> RE: Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/13/2013 6:16:31 AM)

quote:

I do not know how to explain the failed attack on my cavalry division he posted at the beginning of this thread. I believe it was a hasty attack across a minor river against a unit in swamp terrain. Not ideal conditions for an attack. But I just don't know how this exactly influences the MCV.


It was three deliberate attacks then a hasty attack each by a division sized unit. I was interested in what the MCV of the cav unit would be. There is another thread here on whether there should be a distance penalty for leader checks for units reporting to high command. I want to explore the dynamic a little more.

I finally understand why putting Zhukov in STAVKA makes sense. Directly reporting units the leader benefit anywhere on the map.




morvael -> RE: Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/13/2013 9:52:36 AM)

1)
Please remember that there is a dense terrain CV modifier. It applies to anything fighting in mountain, rough, heavy woods, swamp and any city with a population of 14 or more. It applies to both attacker and defender, so you see this factored into initial CV (and especially combat CV) only once you attack (in case of attacker). Dense terrain doubles CV value of infantry elements, while it halves CV of afv elements. Attacking into a swamp with a panzer division means immediate CV drop (unless you are low on tanks and your infantry component is contributing a majority of CV).

2)
Another thing worth to know is that there are separate functions counting static CV (without random factors, used to display initial CV and values you see on counters) and combat CV (with random factors, used to calculate how your troops perform during battle). There are differences between functions in some situations, but they should be fairly minor (they mostly affect support units, and isolated or surrounded units). It's the random component of combat CV function that alters this value so much from the static one, and it is this value that is displayed as the modified combat value at the end of battle.

3)
For combat CV the major random factors are leader infantry/mech skill, leader morale skill, unit experience and morale. Those factors can alter the base CV value in range of 0.0625x to 8x (for defender) or 16x (for attacker). Obviously there is a regression to the mean here, because majority of the rolls is done on a TOE slot basis, however for the attacker there is one skill roll at the end of the function that when successful doubles what has been calculated up to this point for one unit. There are other random rolls made for surrounded and/or isolated units (and obviously during First Winter) that can reduce CV even further, but these are special cases and such units are usually already doomed.

4)
Then there is the important fact that at each range the CV is calculated once again from scratch. Fire combat obviously affects it by DDD (destruction, damage and disruption of elements), that lowers the base value. However, unless you have a clear advantage your attack may be stopped cold at any stage, when the CV of your units suddenly drops low (or the opponent's CV soars high), because of random factors in this specific instance (there is no correlation between one value and the next, so a strong attack may suddenly fail at the last moment). Therefore CV of your units may turn out during combat like: 200, 190, 50, 220 (provided if you survived the "50" step), 100, 250, etc. What you see as the MCV is just the last combat CV which resulted in combat ending (defender was forced to retreat or the attacker was forced to call of the attack). You are bound to see extreme cases there, as they are responsible for the combat ending in the first place. Remember that the closer (in meters) you are, the more of those comparisons you have "survived".

5)
Number of elements is important, it forms the basis of CV, but then there are so many modifiers to that value that is gets "forgotten", while it still remains very important. As I said - when you have small number of elite elements, each one of them is worth a lot of CV. Meanwhile in combat they have limits to how many units they kill, so that when confronted by large number of worse elements having the same sum total of CV, they are bound to lose. Continuing the example with Tiger: 1 Tiger at 100 morale and 100 experience is equal to 25 T-34s with 40 morale and 10 experience. So you have 0.09 CV vs 0.09 CV here. Even if the Tiger kills 10 T-34, but will be damaged in turn you still lose. Your CV dropped to 0, while the Soviet side still has 0.054 CV, even before random factors were applied. That's why CV is not the strength on counters you are used to from boardgames. It's just one part of the system, in which a numerical advantage will always be important. As a rule I try to convert my ratios from WitE to boardgame-like ratios by trying to ascertain the number of elements in enemy division (unfortunately you see this in combat detail window only after combat ends, but you can use my TOE guide as a base and reduce this number by how much you think the unit is below strength), and arrive at a number that is between the ratio of elements and the ratio of CVs, closer to the ratio of elements. That's why Soviets can win in late war starting from 1:1 to 1.5:1 CV ratios, while the Germans need something like 2:1 to 2.5:1 to win. For Soviet side 2:1 is an overkill that is worth using only if you expect a lot of reserves to trigger. I remember a situation from testing the new game (WitW), where it was very easy to rout a 2=40 unit with an 8=8 unit, just because the defender had only 700 elements (crack FJ troops in good defensive terrain, but very low on numbers) and the attacker had between 4000 to 5000. So the ratio was not 1:5 as CV shows, it was more like 2:1 in boardgame terms.

Most important thing to say is that my efforts to demonstrate those inherent characteristics of WitX combat engine (and where they fail - huge CV, low element count), allowed for a revision of random modifiers to CV, so in the new game they will fluctuate less (from the top of my head it's something like 0.25 to 2.5 range) and elements performance in combat is (as I was told) more tied to morale and experience now.




Bozo_the_Clown -> RE: Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/13/2013 12:35:35 PM)

quote:

I finally understand why putting Zhukov in STAVKA makes sense. Directly reporting units the leader benefit anywhere on the map.


That was Stalins idea. Shaposhnikov got dismissed on turn 2. And Stalin didn't even consult me. [:D]




morvael -> RE: Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/13/2013 12:47:03 PM)

Unfortunately, this is true, because range comes into consideration only when going to higher HQs than the one unit is directly reporting to.




Toidi -> RE: Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/13/2013 2:03:25 PM)

Morvael,

Thanks a lot for clearing all those issues. I still think that there might be some additional defensive modifier for those x3 terrains, staying from old times where infantry strength was doubled on such a terrain... Such large increases in defending cv in tough terrain happened to me way too often to believe in accidents. But it is not reliable (in a sense that once certain thereshold is broken, suddenly it does not work). But I still remember losing attacks with 20,000 infantry against a 3000 men Soviet airbornes, or a 8 cv (displayed cv, so 80 combat value in the report) divisions losing against cavalry cut off for 3 turns... Still, it is not that important at the moment I guess - the effect is not reliable and has minor effect on the game...

Nonetheless, from this discussion I gather that in the cv calculation the experience + morale factor raises cv way too quickly in case when the unit is defending (and probably in attack too, the given example with the elite infantry is a good one); the other thing is that the quality of equipment should be taken into account, so that the advanced equipment (say that Tiger tank) will be counted more than the less advanced tank (say T-34). In any case, I would much appreciate more information in the cv value (so for example over mouseover expected CV evolution depending on number of soldiers involved in battle is displayed).

To finish on a personal note, I have played this game for quite some time and I still do not understand one bit some of the combat results (which is immensely frustrating). As such I would appreciate more details and explanation of the battle process (the battle details does not give any hint as there are just elements firing *and* casualties on both sides during battle are so low that if feels that this firing has no effect whatsoever). As it is now, because of lack of reliable information why the modified cv is as it is, I cannot escape thinking that the battle engine is totally broken at times.

Once again Morvael, thanks for your posts and clarifications...

T.




morvael -> RE: Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/13/2013 2:27:53 PM)

Dense terrain modifier still exists for CV, but there maybe another one in the fire functions. I'm familiar only with the CV part. I had the same feeling that "once certain thereshold is broken, suddenly it does not work", it's probably because when you have enough CV/element advantage to keep the attack going until the very end (50 meters), you will see "final" numbers with the enemy broken. However, if your advantage is minor and your units roll badly for CV at one stage the combat suddenly stops and then you get to see strange CVs (enemy very high, you very low). Basically this is possible for every failed attack, whereas successful attacks will show "realistic" numbers. At one point I tried to convince 2by3 guys to use casualties% as a measure whether the combat goes ok or badly, not CV, but it's too big change for the system at this point (and in the future probably as well).

Base CV value for ground elements is unfortunately assigned to classes (Rifle Squad 3, Medium Tank and Heavy Tank both have 9 - see section 26.1.4 in the manual), so there is no difference in an impact a Tiger has on CV vs T-34 (aside from unit morale & element experience but this is a factor outside of ground element core capabilities).

Just try to play some games vs the AI, experiment with different setups and get a feel for what you need to force an enemy out of the swamp, a fort, a city etc. for both sides. As I said, I'm fairly sure I will win when I attack at 1.6:1-1.7:1 CV ratio as the Soviets.





Bozo_the_Clown -> RE: Soviet CV multiplied by 6. WAD? (9/13/2013 6:39:08 PM)

Morvael,

Thanks for all the info! Do you know how fatigue is reflected in the combat system? My impression is that fatigue has a major impact.




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