Where are the Panzer IIIs (Full Version)

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rmonical -> Where are the Panzer IIIs (11/2/2013 7:19:56 PM)

I've always thought the number of Panzer IIIs allocated to the East ran low. I finally got around to counting.

The at start number (6/41), 1009, agrees exactly with Niehorster.
http://www.ordersofbattle.darkscape.net/site/ww2/drleo/011_germany/afv-strengths/_afv_41-06-22.htm

Niehorstor shows another 450 of these early Pz III types not in units. These never appear in WITE. I suspect most of these are the worn out tanks from the Balkans. I'm sure some would be eventually scrapped but most should make it to the East. 210 Pz III Js arrive with 2nd and 5th Panzer. This could be some of those tanks having been repaired and upgraded. I'm not sure if Pz IIIs were diverted to tank crew training.

There is some disagreement on Pz III J production. Some sources, including Wikipedia, only show 1600 Pz III J variants. However, when you add up the variant totals in Wikipedia, you get 4661, more than a thousand fewer than the 5770 generally agreed top line total.

It appears to me WITE Pz III production is 800 light. It is only partially made up by the Panzer IIIs in reinforcements and 450 early model Pz IIIs "vanish". Stated differently, 27% of the Panzer IIIs that existed on 6/41 or were produced thereafter never appear in the East. This number just seems high to me.

In the spreadsheet, Pz III J L42 and L60 production are combined to match the sources and Pz III L&M are combined to match WITE.


[image]local://upfiles/38006/D80AB27354514FED84B606BB5899088D.jpg[/image]



Denniss -> RE: Where are the Panzer IIIs (11/2/2013 8:34:54 PM)

The production of later Panzer III versions is confusing indeed.
The most recent production numbers from research by Thomas L. Jentz are:
~1520 Panzer III Ausf J (short 5 cm)
~1470 Panzer III Ausf L (long 5 cm gun, initial production as Ausf. J subversion but name changed in 3/42)
617 Panzer III Ausf. M
614 ausf. N (+ ~40 conversions)

This is all excluding the command tanks (81 J based on J tank, fully armed with trainable turret, 50 K based on M, fully armed with trainable turret). I don't know how these command tanks are handled in Wite, excluded or not (initial models with fixed turret and dummy main gun).

In WitE some Panzer III arrive with later reinforcement divs or SS unit upgrades (that are modeled as new divs). Many older Pz III were upgraded to latest armament and armor specs during factory overhaul but this is not modeled a well.



rmonical -> RE: Where are the Panzer IIIs (11/2/2013 10:46:50 PM)

quote:

The most recent production numbers from research by Thomas L. Jentz are:
~1520 Panzer III Ausf J (short 5 cm)
~1470 Panzer III Ausf L (long 5 cm gun, initial production as Ausf. J subversion but name changed in 3/42)
617 Panzer III Ausf. M
614 ausf. N (+ ~40 conversions)


So, per Jentz, we are in agreement that production is low.

quote:

In WitE some Panzer III arrive with later reinforcement divs or SS unit upgrades (that are modeled as new divs).


I found slightly over 500 arriving as reinforcements. That leaves 1500 unaccounted for. WITW has less than 350 at start and in reinforcements. Were 1100 Pz IIIs lost in the West 6/41-7/43?




darbycmcd -> RE: Where are the Panzer IIIs (11/3/2013 4:12:20 AM)

Did you account for N. Africa.... That accounts for c.700 of the III in total IIRC



Gabriel B. -> RE: Where are the Panzer IIIs (11/3/2013 11:02:11 PM)

posibly more , see ron klages post at AHF:


http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?t=73840#p724833




rmonical -> RE: Where are the Panzer IIIs (11/4/2013 2:09:30 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Gabriel B.
posibly more , see ron klages post at AHF:

http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?t=73840#p724833

Thanks for the reference. I looked but did not find this thread. So not as bad as I feared. I count roughly 300 missing Pz IIIs.


[image]local://upfiles/38006/7D4B5B12E00248898A250B4765B88D74.jpg[/image]



Denniss -> RE: Where are the Panzer IIIs (11/4/2013 10:38:24 AM)

Early Pz III models were not scrapped as they could be easily upgraded with more armor and long 5cm gun, all Pz III starting with Ausf. F were eligible for this.
In 44 many were degraded to secondary duties or even converted into recovery vehicles.

The upgrade part is completely missing in WitE - in 44 there were some Pz IVd upgraded with armor and long gun known to exist, same with old StuGs.



rmonical -> RE: Where are the Panzer IIIs (12/14/2013 7:34:11 PM)

While examining the Panzer IVs I refined the numbers for Pz IIIs through the beginning of WITW. I forgot the motorized divisions had medium tanks when they were withdrawn. In the case of the 3,29 Mot they are withdrawn from WITE as Mot with medium tanks and appear in WITW as PG with Stugs. Not sure what happened with the 36 motorized. Anyway, this is how I counted the net reinforcements and withdrawals from WITE.

[image]local://upfiles/38006/84C883569B61457BAA0B3D4E07648BFD.jpg[/image]



rmonical -> RE: Where are the Panzer IIIs (12/14/2013 7:38:27 PM)

This is the updated accounting for Pz IIIs. There is an increase of some 60 unaccounted Panzer IIIs all due to the uncertain dynamics of the withdrawals. The game engine will build the divisions up to 75% - I suspect in actuality, they were much weaker when they were pulled out. For example, 29.PG shows up in WITW at 68% strength and 70 morale.

[image]local://upfiles/38006/7951749CCB2F4E16B3D7471D098309E4.jpg[/image]



rmonical -> RE: Where are the Panzer IIIs (12/14/2013 8:08:52 PM)

I took a detailed look at Pz IV longs. It looks almost OK as of the beginning of WITW. One problem I see is total WITE production for Pz IVh is 2544 verses 3774 historical. I see that WITW ups production by 10 per week, but that only makes up half of the difference. Most of this production shortfall appears after 7/1/43. Same situation for the PzIVjs. So just looking at the raw numbers, it appears the Germans are shorted PzIV longs from early '43 on. Another source shows 8156 PzIV longs 42-45.



[image]local://upfiles/38006/2586F8418591445DAEABE31F547AF9E7.jpg[/image]



rmonical -> RE: Where are the Panzer IIIs (12/14/2013 8:19:14 PM)

7/1/43 analysis of the Pz IV longs. This looks OK.

I have no way of know how many PzIVhs had been produced by 7/1/43. WITE has 318 but I count 404.

Just to reiterate, to get the tank accounting I take the WITE at start (comparing to Niehorstor), add production, add net reinforcements per above, add WITW at start and subtract Africa shipments including losses.



[image]local://upfiles/38006/755C7A0DDB4E4BA7BAB9A18CB7B2EC76.jpg[/image]



Denniss -> RE: Where are the Panzer IIIs (12/14/2013 8:42:29 PM)

36th is one of the demotorized divs that are withdrawn and replaced with inf. It's withdrawn again as crushed in 44 and reappears as 36th SS Grenadier.

The game engine tries to build withdrawing units up to 100% (or up to the last MaxTOE level if >=75%).

BTW the historical Pz IV (long) production is 1927 Ausf. G, ~2324 H and 3160 J (excluding conversions of older Pz IV).



rmonical -> RE: Where are the Panzer IIIs (12/14/2013 8:57:49 PM)

Thanks Dennis. I think there are 40 Pz IV shorts in depot at the beginning of the campaign that get "lost". Other than that, these look good. In summary, up through 7/1/43 the only issue I see are Pz III and IVs in depot at the campaign's start getting lost. After 7/1/43, I have real concerns around PzIV production. The numbers in WITE are low. The added 10 per week in WITW helps, but these will be further reduced by strategic bombing. One problem WITW has is simulating the destruction of equipment between the factory and the front. IMHO, the major impact of this dynamic is after June '44.



Denniss -> RE: Where are the Panzer IIIs (12/14/2013 9:05:38 PM)

WitW only uses two Pz IV factories if my memory serves right. in 43 three manufacturers produced 2983 Pz IV (785 Krupp, 816 Vomag, 1381 Nibelungenwerke), in 44 it was 3125 Pz IV of which 2815 came from Nibelungenwerk. In Summer 44 they reached their maximum production with 300 tanks but afterwards suffered from bombings on the assembly factories and the armor suppliers.



darbycmcd -> RE: Where are the Panzer IIIs (12/14/2013 9:35:45 PM)

Are you counting Italian front deployment? Specifically XIV Panzer Corp. And are you sure you are counting all incoming reinforcement establishments? I can imagine there is potential for problems by separating the production in the two games, although they are supposed to represent one big pool. It will be much easier to track when they put the two together.

If you can show a couple thousand short it is a big deal, but don't get so worked up about a couple hundred. You are missing tanks returned to factory, converted, into training establishment, etc.




rmonical -> RE: Where are the Panzer IIIs (12/14/2013 10:00:15 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: darbymcd
Are you counting Italian front deployment? Specifically XIV Panzer Corp. And are you sure you are counting all incoming reinforcement establishments? I can imagine there is potential for problems by separating the production in the two games, although they are supposed to represent one big pool. It will be much easier to track when they put the two together.

If you can show a couple thousand short it is a big deal, but don't get so worked up about a couple hundred. You are missing tanks returned to factory, converted, into training establishment, etc.

It is trivial to count elements in the game engine. So I got them all unless the scenario has changed recently.

It looks to me like Pz IV production is a couple thousand low in 43-44.

My analysis shows the Pz IIIs available to WITE to be low by about 9% because units in depot do not make it back into the game. A solution is to increase the Pz IIIj/43 production to accommodate the repair, upgrade and return to service of the missing units.



Denniss -> RE: Where are the Panzer IIIs (12/14/2013 10:03:55 PM)

Several newly formed or reorganized (Waffen-SS) formations arrive with lots of tanks.



rmonical -> RE: Where are the Panzer IIIs (12/14/2013 10:59:44 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Denniss
Several newly formed or reorganized (Waffen-SS) formations arrive with lots of tanks.


It gets really complicated. You cannot look at arrivals in isolation - they are frequently matched with a withdrawal that subtracts panzer count. Let's start with the 7/1/43 baseline which has a decent accounting of Pz-IVs. Consider LAH-I.SS. It's tanks are counted. It withdraws and appears in WITW with with Panther Ds instead of PzIIIs. The reasonable assumption is the Panther Ds were issued from production in WITE. It then withdraws from WITW in November appearing as a Pz division in WITE. It is assumed to have upgraded in WITW. And so on. So the back and forth should be ignored and we should focus on the new arrivals in either theater. So concentrating on the Pz IVh production period (approximately to June 44), the only completely new arrival s I find are 25.Pz and Pz Lehr with 140 Pz IVs.

That does not come close to addressing the 1200 missing Pz IVh.



rmonical -> RE: Where are the Panzer IIIs (12/14/2013 11:21:37 PM)

I notice that 25.Pz arrives in the East Dec/43 and is not in the West at start of WITW. It is shown as in the East.



rmonical -> RE: Where are the Panzer IIIs (12/15/2013 12:27:08 AM)

Take WITE in isolation. From 7/1/43 until the end of the PzIVh production period these are the dynamics. Of the WITE available PzIVh (42/week) 27/week are allocated to the east in '43 and 24/week in 44. So of the 2455 possible in WITE 1577, arrive in the east by production and 120 (net) by reinforcement. That means 1697/3774 historical PzIVhs are available in the east.

I think this is a significant issue in the scenario design.


[image]local://upfiles/38006/756523EC735D4D19A41A95FBD7372B29.jpg[/image]



Walloc -> RE: Where are the Panzer IIIs (12/15/2013 5:35:59 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: rmonical

This is the updated accounting for Pz IIIs. There is an increase of some 60 unaccounted Panzer IIIs all due to the uncertain dynamics of the withdrawals. The game engine will build the divisions up to 75% - I suspect in actuality, they were much weaker when they were pulled out. For example, 29.PG shows up in WITW at 68% strength and 70 morale.

[image]local://upfiles/38006/7951749CCB2F4E16B3D7471D098309E4.jpg[/image]


There a few problem with these numbers and in some assumptions.

1st. There places u lose tank other places than listed. Most notebly non of those losts at sea is counted in ur figurs. These are for example 3rd Pz Reg and 31st Pz Reg lost coys. There is no accounting for that in ur numbers. Those are reconstituded from what would be in game fall 41 production.
2ndly Assumption that all tank produced makes it too the front. They dont. A number is send to Pz Schules and so on. Eventually some of tehse ends up at the front but far from all. There is no account for that in ur figurs. Those ofc would have to be deducted from production number as there is no per say game feature that removes tho from production, not that im suggesting u should. Just removing those from the production is much easier.
3rdly A number of Pz is lost during transporting to the various front, again some is swimming with the fishes. There is no game feature for this and shouldnt be deducting those from production is much easier.
4thly Tho u in some cases like Tigers have pool u dont in game in my experience og the game end up in historic situasion of having older Models that in essense for many end up unused. U end with 534 PzIII, where most are not used in units at the end of the war. Thats alone more than the missing 300 not counting the otehr 3 points. How do u propose u deal with that?

Kind regards,

Rasmus



rmonical -> RE: Where are the Panzer IIIs (12/15/2013 2:16:11 PM)

quote:

Most notebly non of those losts at sea is counted in ur figurs.

All of the convoy losses to Africa were counted. Re: the post Greece convoys - Jentz says tanks were lost. Other sources disagree. http://www.feldgrau.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=10434 points out the Halder dairies state the initial report of tanks losses was incorrect because the tanks were transported on the first trip. This thread has a scan of the vehicles in the sinkings. So as of May 2009, the loss of 2.Pz tanks in the sinking of Marburg and Kybfels should be relegated to urban legend status. http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=117843

In any event, those losses in May would have been part of Niehortstors 6.22.41 accounting of tanks (which is based on Jentz).
quote:

Assumption that all tank produced makes it too the front. They dont. A number is send to Pz Schules and so on.

How many Pz III were allocated to the Panzer schools? I was not able to find that information. My guess is the number is very small to zero in June 41. In addition to the PzIII and PzIV not in units, Niehorstor shows 658 PzI and 264 PzII not in units - these are probably the school tanks.
quote:

3rdly A number of Pz is lost during transporting to the various front, again some is swimming with the fishes.
As I mentioned, I agree that late war should have a lost in transit allowance that goes above the impact of strategic bombing on the factory and transport infrastructure. This certainly does not apply in 41&42 in Russia. In addition, tanks lost in transit will almost always be recovered and repaired. What examples do you have of tanks (other than convoy losses) written off as a result of transit losses?

This is all speculation. I have used the best facts I can find on-line to count panzers. If there are better facts available, please share and I will incorporate them into the count. The 6.22.41 panzer count is from Niehorstor. He shows a lot of tanks not in units (presumably depots). This makes sense as they had just finished a campaign. My point is these tanks in depot on 6.1.41 do not make it back to the front with the current scenario design. I suggest one solution is to slightly increase production to allow these tanks to trickle back to the front.



Walloc -> RE: Where are the Panzer IIIs (12/15/2013 5:26:09 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: rmonical

quote:

Most notebly non of those losts at sea is counted in ur figurs.

All of the convoy losses to Africa were counted. Re: the post Greece convoys - Jentz says tanks were lost. Other sources disagree. http://www.feldgrau.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=10434 points out the Halder dairies state the initial report of tanks losses was incorrect because the tanks were transported on the first trip. This thread has a scan of the vehicles in the sinkings. So as of May 2009, the loss of 2.Pz tanks in the sinking of Marburg and Kybfels should be relegated to urban legend status. http://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=117843


Well, then some of their tanks disappeared some where else. As Pz Reg 3 is issues 79 Pz3 in june-july 1941 has 105 at sep 1941. A difference of 26. There could be other issues of tanks i havent seen any evidence on isnt listed in my sources. They had 71 pz III at the start of Marieta. 8 writes offs for 63 left. So there is at leased 37 lost some where..... Urban myth or not.
Pages 154-157 in Jentz volume 1. As those are issues during game production times those would have to be deducted. Even if losses are in may.
For Pz reg 31/(5th Pz Div) on june 21 it has 17 Pz III. Starts with 51 so 34 in difference. 10 in WOs, 14 going to Crete neding with 10 unaccounted for. Rumors in Jenzt that soem is lost going to Crete.
Any how so as 31 Pz Reg has 17 Pz3s on june 21 and 105 in sep it has to have been issued 85 during game time. From Jentz too.

quote:

ORIGINAL: rmonical
In any event, those losses in May would have been part of Niehortstors 6.22.41 accounting of tanks (which is based on Jentz).


As a word of caution. There is a lack/delay in the reporting of tank losses so tho lost in one month u cant take the figurs 100% litterally. There is an obvious delay in reporting. A good example is June-Aug 1944 vs the sep-oct 1944.
In the month of june through aug 1944 u have Normandy france debacle and Soviet operation North and South of the Pripesk marshes. This is about the heavies fighting involving more or less 80 90% of the german pz truppen. What happens in Sep through Oct 1944, Not much involving the Pz truppen. That said the pz bde in the West do take some sigificant PzVs casulties, but far from these kinda figurs.
Losses Again according to Jentz from OKW figurs are for panthers:
June 138
July 373
Aug 290
Combined 801

Sep 692
Oct 294
Combined 986.

So in sep oct u would have taken 20 ish % more losses than during the summer battles of 1944 on both fronts. Its not a question of not being unlikely its impossible. Its obvious alot of those losses in Sep and possibly Oct numers has to have been taken earlier. So in june through aug logically there is a delay in reporting that gets into teh Sep Oct figurs. Again According to Jenzt the combined str of PzVs on the West is 150 on sep 15 1944. Again Jentz. They hardly have 692 panthers in sep 1944 so well u cant lose them there.

quote:

How many Pz III were allocated to the Panzer schools? I was not able to find that information. My guess is the number is very small to zero in June 41. In addition to the PzIII and PzIV not in units, Niehorstor shows 658 PzI and 264 PzII not in units - these are probably the school tanks.

This is all speculation. I have used the best facts I can find on-line to count panzers. If there are better facts available, please share and I will incorporate them into the count. The 6.22.41 panzer count is from Niehorstor. He shows a lot of tanks not in units (presumably depots). This makes sense as they had just finished a campaign. My point is these tanks in depot on 6.1.41 do not make it back to the front with the current scenario design. I suggest one solution is to slightly increase production to allow these tanks to trickle back to the front.


Well i dont have precise figurs either but as u say u have 234 not with units. At end of war its 534 left in inventory(there could be some that is for example bef pz3 with units so i wont say 534 at the end of the war is 100% accurate but its presumably pretty close.) So there is a constand of tank not in units.

Any how if we take the 234 Pz 3 not with units, this number varies through out the war but a said ends at some where near double that number ar end of the war. Add 16 in 5./ Pz Reg 31 that ends up and spends the war on Crete there for not listen in ur above numbers.
Add the 10 unaccounted for in 31 pz reg, add 14 lost on way to Africa. Thats 276 in all. So IMO so close to the 300 as u possibly can get at leased IMO we down to numbers that is insignificant. I cant see production of Pz3 being much more precise.

Then there are questions like are the sep 1941 reorg of 21st Pz into a full pz div not taken out of prodcution per say. One can argue if they are included in the production going to the "West" or not but there is another 60'ish that should or shouldnt be deducted from production.
From Jentz too.

Its clear if u add 300 u will end up with more PzIIIs in units than historic so i certainly would leave it as is. Yes u prolly never can find 100% accurate figurs and some varies though out the war. How many that arent in units/depots. So u will have to pick soem arbitrary number but its clear there they a constand of some sort.


Kind regards,

Rasmus



darbycmcd -> RE: Where are the Panzer IIIs (12/15/2013 5:42:09 PM)

Yeah, I think if you get to the 300 number, it is just impossible to patch together these sources and get a completely accurate, to-the-tank number. It probably isn't worth the effort to try. But, your PzIV numbers, if I can read your spreadsheet correctly, might be a bigger problem. If there are more than a thousand missing, that is worth following up.



Denniss -> RE: Where are the Panzer IIIs (12/15/2013 5:48:30 PM)

By the end of the war most/all Befehlspanzer III should be of the fully armed variant with either long/short 5cm or even the 7.5cm gun. The dummy gun production was discontinued with the H variant.
The number may include Beobachtungspanzer III unless they are specifically mentioned as such (AFAIR belonged to Artillery then).



Walloc -> RE: Where are the Panzer IIIs (12/15/2013 6:21:55 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: rmonical

I took a detailed look at Pz IV longs. It looks almost OK as of the beginning of WITW. One problem I see is total WITE production for Pz IVh is 2544 verses 3774 historical. I see that WITW ups production by 10 per week, but that only makes up half of the difference. Most of this production shortfall appears after 7/1/43. Same situation for the PzIVjs. So just looking at the raw numbers, it appears the Germans are shorted PzIV longs from early '43 on. Another source shows 8156 PzIV longs 42-45.



[image]local://upfiles/38006/2586F8418591445DAEABE31F547AF9E7.jpg[/image]


Can i ask where u got the PzIVJ numbers from?
My unconfirmed records is 1758 produced u have 2920 as hist. Quite a difference, just about the 1300 difference u find so thot that was interresting.


Rasmus



Denniss -> RE: Where are the Panzer IIIs (12/15/2013 7:04:00 PM)

Get your hands on Panzer Tracts 23 for all tank production or try the tank-specific series of the other Panzer tracts variants.

To summarize again:
IVg: 1927 from 3/42 to 6/43 (includes renamed F2 and small series equipped with L/48 gun (used from 4/43))
IVh: 2324 from 6/43 to 2/44
IVj: 3160 from 2/44 to ~4/45, the vast majority from Nibelungenwerke, none from Krupp and just ~180 from Vomag

IIIh: 286, + 175 Befehlspanzer with dummy gun
IIIj: ~1521 (short 5cm gun) + 81 armed Befehlspanzer J (just Bow MG removed)
IIIL: ~1470 (long 5cm gun) + 50 armed Befehlspanzer K (just Bow MG removed), including those with long guns initially named as J
IIIm: 517
IIIn: 614



rmonical -> RE: Where are the Panzer IIIs (12/15/2013 7:30:03 PM)

I think this is important enough to discuss some more.

IMHO, the fundamental questions are how many PzIIIs were there on 6.22.41, how many were produced, how many were lost in the Mediterranean, and how many are in WITW on 7/1/43. The biggest issue is WITE produces 3375 PzIIIjs and later models. Most sources say that number should be 4180. The argument seems to be that reinforcements make up the difference. They do not when withdrawals are also considered.

If you use the WITE production model, you cannot get to the WITW starting condition - it is just impossible. In this spreadsheet I run the production, Africa, reinforcements and estimated withdrawals to get to WITE production model of PzIIIs available for the West as of 7/1/43. That number is -39 meaning the WITE production model is guaranteed to under produce Pz IIIs by 435 to get to the WITW starting condition.


[image]local://upfiles/38006/60DF3786B6CA42EEBBBDDD3EA14C3C3C.jpg[/image]



rmonical -> RE: Where are the Panzer IIIs (12/15/2013 7:31:33 PM)

quote:

Can i ask where u got the PzIVJ numbers from?

Achtung Panzer narrative. It could easily be wrong. I'm more concerned about the PzIVh shortfall in 43-44 than late war Pz IV shortfall when IMHO, panzers had trouble making it from the production line to the front.



rmonical -> RE: Where are the Panzer IIIs (12/15/2013 8:01:26 PM)

As I did the most recent analysis, I realized I did not add the 4 withdrawing motorized divisions to the withdrawal analysis. This is a tough one because they withdraw the same month they upgrade to PG status. If they withdraw as Motorized divisions or before the medium tanks are swapped out, then 108 Pz IIIs will be withdrawn. With these, the missing Pz IIIs are up to 455.


[image]local://upfiles/38006/A97DB7F1F1D94E06BA40E6B7AC9AAE09.jpg[/image]



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