RE: T41 26 March - 1 April 1942 (Full Version)

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loki100 -> RE: T41 26 March - 1 April 1942 (9/18/2014 3:28:57 PM)

Turn 41: 26 March – 1 April 1942: 'The Interdicted Land'

The final week of March saw the effective completion of the two major German offensives of the month. In the south, Sevastopol fell [1]:

[image]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/img661/338/8sJiOa.jpg[/image]

The trapped units of 26 Army were destroyed at Livny while on the Moscow sector, the Germans continued their recent approach of localised attacks clearly designed to prepare for a later offensive [2]

[image]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/img746/607/stfVz9.jpg[/image]

In response, Stavka continued the offensive by 3 and 4 Shock Armies in the north against the German 2 Infantry Corps with the intent of deepening the breach between the German and Finnish sectors of the front.

[image]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/img912/2125/eUvITT.jpg[/image]

Overall losses were light, the Germans had just over 8,000 casualties and the Soviets lost 88,000 (64,000 taken prisoner). The final desperate actions around Livny also saw another 31 German tanks destroyed. Air losses were light (29 axis and 67 Soviet).

Both sides, conducted their operations in the expectation that the spring thaw would soon set in, effectively ending major combat operations across the Front. On the Soviet side, elements of NW Front sought to occupy what had become a no-mans land in the Kalinin sector so as to construct a small bridgehead over the Tveritsa.

Overall Stavka was struggling to interpret both the implications of the German Voronezh offensive and their strategic intentions for the summer of 1942. For now, the bulk of the Red Army was ordered over to the defense. Major river lines were well fortified, but, to ensure some operational flexibility, well defended fortified bridgeheads were maintained. Once the focus of the German offensive became clear, Stavka intended to have the capacity to launch localised counterattacks if it could.

[image]local://upfiles/43256/7AFD949F2D2843F68BE8D2D7E47792F4.jpg[/image]

Despite the loss of the bulk of 26 Army, the Soviets had an army of 7 million men, nearly 80,000 guns, and 5,400 tanks. Given its sustained contribution over the winter battles, many front line VVS squadrons were drawn back into reserve to rest and re-organise. The result was that only 4,000 planes (mostly fighter bombers) were deployed at forward airbases [3].

Overall the Red Army had 385 Infantry Divisions (with an average of 10,000 men and 150 guns each), 184 Infantry Brigades (3,500 men and 50 guns each), 94 tank brigades (1,000 men and 47 tanks each), 16 Cavalry Corps (10,000 men, 160 guns each) and 13 Mountain Divisions (11,000 men, 150 guns).

3 rifle divisions [4] and 1 Cavalry Corps had been awarded Guards status.

[image]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/img904/9624/GLQk4L.jpg[/image]

My suspicion is that April will see little action, but there is a chance of snow as we are using random weather. If so, I'll not bother with turn by turn updates, so there maybe a bit of a gap before the next update.


[1] - this was the bad news, while I had no expectation of holding till June (and the creation of corps), this allows 2 powerful German corps to redeploy as SigUp wishes. If the fighting had lasted into May, that may have been a useful distraction.
[2] ... or not?
[3] – I have 5 airbases that were created in the winter, these have not been used (I'll probably give them to 15 Air Army when that arrives in June).
[4] – I'll supplement this by converting some of the paratroop brigades



jwolf -> RE: T41 26 March - 1 April 1942 (9/19/2014 2:05:28 AM)

The map is very nice and it's interesting to see STAVKA's view of possible German offensives later in the year. It will be interesting to see how SigUp's actual operations compare.

April and May are tricky because you can't really count on either good or bad weather (which makes the game much better IMHO). It may be nervewracking for the players but it's great for us spectators!

Good luck as the spring continues.



Oshawott -> RE: T41 26 March - 1 April 1942 (9/19/2014 2:16:49 AM)

Why is it that one of the rifle divisions in Sevastopol surrendered? That's what happened in my game too. Shouldn't the all rout?



loki100 -> RE: T41 26 March - 1 April 1942 (9/19/2014 6:51:48 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

The map is very nice and it's interesting to see STAVKA's view of possible German offensives later in the year. It will be interesting to see how SigUp's actual operations compare.

April and May are tricky because you can't really count on either good or bad weather (which makes the game much better IMHO). It may be nervewracking for the players but it's great for us spectators!

Good luck as the spring continues.


Aye, I think this is the phase when random weather really spices up a game. You can obviously expect mud in April but there can be single turn gaps. This is *fun* as it makes every turn matter. My safety net is clearly SigUp can't risk wasting APs on HQBUs so any attack will be to push into my outer defences rather than a deep attempt at encirclement.

Its clear his I and XX Infantry Corps are well optimised so where they go matters as much as where the Pzrs are. My feeling from the recent battles on the Voronezh sector is the bulk of the German infantry is now quite weak (3-5 cv), given that most of mine are 1.5-2 (so often 10-14 defensive cv for a stack), then he can't use those to break the line (at best they are to guard the flanks).

In the recent fighting I think he used the Pzrs to break the front (deliberate attacks and thus loss of MPs), but those two infantry corps give him the tool to break through using infantry, thus making the Pzrs more dangerous.

As to what/where, its clear he still has the strategic initiative, so its his choice. What I have no feel for, is how robust is his advantage. We've seen a couple of AARs where the opening German attack has stalled and not been repeated, but we've seen others where they gain momentum as 1942 progresses.

If I was him, even if I was going for a 'lets eat the red army' strategy, I'd still risk a battle for Tula. While a well defended Oka gives me strong flank protection, it also means if the tide turns and I can attack it becomes a barrier to me in turn. Thats one reason why I've selected a number of sectors in the South where I've set up to try and defend the west bank of the major rivers rather than just pulling back behind say the central sector of the Don.

I also think if he swings south and leaves Tula in my hands,the type of build up I have there, plus the terrain, means he is risking powerful blows to a less protected rear (which feeds back into my analysis of the weakness of his infantry divisions).

Equally a frontal battle for Moscow (while I think he can gain a lot of terrain) runs into two risks. First it becomes a race against time for my formation of rifle corps (& since mud to mid June is likely its unlikely he'll win this race), also it again leaves my Tula build up needing to be screened.

So thats my guess, he has to go for Tula first, at least take the terrain and hopefully come out of it with some of my best formations trashed. The alternatives are too risky. I could be very very wrong [:@]

quote:

ORIGINAL: Oshawott

Why is it that one of the rifle divisions in Sevastopol surrendered? That's what happened in my game too. Shouldn't the all rout?


I was surprised. I wonder if its a port capacity thing? So two divisions could 'exit' via the port but not the third? Looking back there were all much the same for morale (42-44), so its not a case of single very weak unit falling apart.



cpt flam -> RE: T41 26 March - 1 April 1942 (9/20/2014 4:45:46 AM)

as you i would think of transport or port capacity
that was well thought anyway !



Oshawott -> RE: T41 26 March - 1 April 1942 (9/20/2014 7:50:19 PM)

quote:

I was surprised. I wonder if its a port capacity thing? So two divisions could 'exit' via the port but not the third? Looking back there were all much the same for morale (42-44), so its not a case of single very weak unit falling apart.


It might have to do with distance to port. Kind of like the problem saper222 had. Are you still holding Kerch? I believe this is the only port available for routing because it's below 20 hexes. Did the units route to Kerch?



loki100 -> RE: T41 26 March - 1 April 1942 (9/20/2014 9:49:21 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: cpt flam

as you i would think of transport or port capacity
that was well thought anyway !


I think its capacity out of Sevastopol

quote:

ORIGINAL: Oshawott

quote:

I was surprised. I wonder if its a port capacity thing? So two divisions could 'exit' via the port but not the third? Looking back there were all much the same for morale (42-44), so its not a case of single very weak unit falling apart.


It might have to do with distance to port. Kind of like the problem saper222 had. Are you still holding Kerch? I believe this is the only port available for routing because it's below 20 hexes. Did the units route to Kerch?


I've had 7 units rout from that defeat in the Crimea over recent turns and they've turned up in various places, some at Novossoriysk but others at nearby non=port hexes. So I don't think its the issue that caught Sapper out, which really makes me suspicious its an exit port capacity limit (or total transport capacity in the Black Sea)?



Wuffer -> RE: T41 26 March - 1 April 1942 (9/21/2014 12:05:02 AM)

While honestly regretting the loss of your men, I would like to hear a reasonable explanation how on earth the Red Army should be able to extract three divisions inclusive all their guns and trucks in the moment the festung has fallen...? This is not Dunkirk and the RN, but an attack with 1oo1 heavy guns and air superiority by the Luftwaffe.
Take them as the brave rearguard blabla, but imho really nobody should have escaped, otoh the Germans should have taken more casualities storming one of the most fortified strongpoints in the world.

edit:

[8D][:)]



charlie0311 -> RE: T41 26 March - 1 April 1942 (9/21/2014 4:27:24 AM)

Hey Wuf, I'll take a crack at it.

1) the Red navy may have been present for AA support.
2) the equipment could have been abandoned.
3) the evacuation could have been planned for.
4) Doesn't take that many ships if they're just packed with soldiers.
5) the game turn is a week, not the last moment.



Wuffer -> RE: T41 26 March - 1 April 1942 (9/21/2014 5:21:04 AM)

6)the port is in range of german siege arty and under attack

thx god I'm not a eyewitness of sevastopol's fall. ok, let it be, no need to elaborate this stuff further, at least not in Loki's fine AAR just now, as the tension rises to a maximum :-)

(still sceptical, not that it matter, as we neither won't change the engine nor the results of the historicans in Berlin later, with their interpretation depending if it's the capital of greater Germania or the GDR, which is obviously a far more important question just now than yesterday's lost battles:) when & where will the German strike next?





loki100 -> RE: T41 26 March - 1 April 1942 (9/21/2014 7:12:47 AM)

Oddly I'm happy with the balance of outcome.

Historically the Soviets did evacuate most of the forces from Sevastopol apart from the rearguard. So I can regard the surrendered decision as the force told to hold the battered forts and caves to the end as most slipped out.

Also they were more able at naval invasion/evacuation than given credit. As these mostly happened in the Black Sea, they tend to get missed from more Western centric views of the war. But they managed it, say at Odessa as an evacuation, even when everything was in chaos, so while I don't understand why 2 got out and 1 surrendered, I can live with it as unintentionally (? or WAD) good simulation.

Also what got out are a mess, one of the rifle divisions was down to 3000 men and 50 guns, the other not much better. So it has the air of getting out the key things and losing a lot.

Its also my own fault. I should have spent the winter rotating the forces in the Crimea out to properly refit and then back in. Too few reinforcements reached them and their CVs declined as a result. I'm not sure I could have held off such a well organised set piece assault in any case, but SigUp was on a tight timetable, one turn of delay and we'd have been into mud.



STEF78 -> RE: T41 26 March - 1 April 1942 (9/21/2014 11:08:27 AM)

Just my point of view. If he tries an encirclement South of Moscow he will start South of Kaluga because of the forest and the Oka river.

[img]http://img11.hostingpics.net/pics/559915loki100.jpg[/img]

Do you know where his Pzg are?

How is your defence: tradionnal in depth or bee hive like Oshawott?



loki100 -> RE: T41 26 March - 1 April 1942 (9/21/2014 11:45:05 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: STEF78

Just my point of view. If he tries an encirclement South of Moscow he will start South of Kaluga because of the forest and the Oka river.

[img]http://img11.hostingpics.net/pics/559915loki100.jpg[/img]

Do you know where his Pzg are?

How is your defence: tradionnal in depth or bee hive like Oshawott?


Yes, think you are right about the line of attack. I know that 2 Pzr Armies are at Voronezh, 1 is in the north Moscow sector and I strongly think one is to the south of Moscow around Kaluga.

I've got 3 basic defense structures. A multiple line, make him fight for every hex (north of the Oka), some hexes are real strong points but few have a defensive cv under 15.

I'm using Oshawatt's beehive around Tula. If I am right that his infantry are weak, then I think that deployment will harm the Pzrs more than a weak carpet of 1 cv units. The front is weak, relative to what sits to the rear (to make trying for a pocket very dangerous).

In the south, I now mostly have a shell defense. Since its mostly anchored on major rivers, I don't fear an early major encirclement at the start of the offensive, once he breaches that, if its clear that is the major focus, my goal will be to avoid encirclement and let fatigue and supply do the damage.

One big decision is whether to keep a strong counterattack force (say 3/4 SA and 41 A which will have tank corps) somewhere else (so I can put some pressure on) or to lodge these as the final defense at Tula-Ryazan. I've a lot to think over, as its tempting to have some offensive capacity, but I think the main task has to be win a defensive victory first.

I've attached an image of the 3 stages of routs from the Crimea. I had 2 rout in T39, 3 in T40, 2 in T41 (plus the surrender), its interesting to see where they ended up and the differing degrees of damage:



[image]local://upfiles/43256/A67DD6D5F7AF40718A33E64B12E97760.jpg[/image]



gingerbread -> RE: T41 26 March - 1 April 1942 (9/21/2014 11:46:53 AM)

Great Read, or perhaps: Great Write!

Interesting lesson from your T39 activities with 26th A. The Soviets cannot, or very rarely, use the Axis/German tactics of indirect threat due to that the shoulders from which the Soviet neck is stuck out cannot be trusted to hold, at least not until Rifle XXX can be used to form these shoulders. It is OK to strike at a German neck, provided the strike succeeds.

Don't put too much faith in early Guards Corps as their TOE is only 5 Brigades. They can be brought up to strength after taking losses by splitting, refitting and recombining but that takes a couple of turns.



jwolf -> RE: T41 26 March - 1 April 1942 (9/21/2014 1:01:55 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100

I'm using Oshawatt's beehive around Tula. If I am right that his infantry are weak, then I think that deployment will harm the Pzrs more than a weak carpet of 1 cv units.


I think I understand a "weak carpet" as that is my typical kind of defense. What is meant by a beehive?

quote:


I've a lot to think over, as its tempting to have some offensive capacity, but I think the main task has to be win a defensive victory first.


Definitely agree on this.



Oshawott -> RE: T41 26 March - 1 April 1942 (9/22/2014 1:44:17 AM)

quote:

which really makes me suspicious its an exit port capacity limit (or total transport capacity in the Black Sea)?


I bet it's total transport capacity in the Black Sea. That makes sense to me.



Wuffer -> RE: T41 26 March - 1 April 1942 (9/22/2014 4:26:57 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Wuffer

... but imho really nobody should have escaped,


OK, I have changed my mind and claiming vehemently the opposite.

I will leave this idiotic statement as perfect example, how this bloody germanocentric propaganda crawled in my brain - the Russian not only built better and much more tanks and arty and planes with nearly the same industrial base as the Germans, no, the German were even permanently asthonished by this facts until the end. Normaly, this could be the plot of a big comedy, if these idiots would not have killed half Europe.
However, History repeats itself, and hopefully in Loki's AAR.

Hopefully.
You didn't really express a moment of surprise by youself, Loki, as a complete division in a mighty fortress simply capitulates??
Kill 'em.
stop storytelling.
:-)




loki100 -> RE: T41 26 March - 1 April 1942 (9/22/2014 7:24:25 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: gingerbread

Great Read, or perhaps: Great Write!

Interesting lesson from your T39 activities with 26th A. The Soviets cannot, or very rarely, use the Axis/German tactics of indirect threat due to that the shoulders from which the Soviet neck is stuck out cannot be trusted to hold, at least not until Rifle XXX can be used to form these shoulders. It is OK to strike at a German neck, provided the strike succeeds.

Don't put too much faith in early Guards Corps as their TOE is only 5 Brigades. They can be brought up to strength after taking losses by splitting, refitting and recombining but that takes a couple of turns.


thank you.

re 26A (& indeed the Crimea), I really am learning a huge amount here. Have had a fair bit of experience PBEM in the 1941 scenarios but never into this phase. So its a real challenge trying to interpret what is going on (helps that we seem to have a balanced game too).

The other mistake I made was I assumed the relative slow progress in the first two turns was a reflection of German capacity, it was actually the impact of blizzard. The shift to snow converted a steady retreat into a pocket. But there is a mindset issue too. Its clear at this stage, I don't really have the tools to attack with (and your comment about having vulnerable flanks is spot on), but its so tempting to lash back rather than just take the punishment.

I'm not too keen on early corps conversion, in general I think more separate units is a bigger gain, so I'll only convert a few. But it really depends, if its an attritional battle for Moscow then I will convert as many as I can, if its a running battle in the south, then they can wait.


quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf


quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100

I'm using Oshawatt's beehive around Tula. If I am right that his infantry are weak, then I think that deployment will harm the Pzrs more than a weak carpet of 1 cv units.


I think I understand a "weak carpet" as that is my typical kind of defense. What is meant by a beehive?

quote:


I've a lot to think over, as its tempting to have some offensive capacity, but I think the main task has to be win a defensive victory first.


Definitely agree on this.


The 'beehive' (love the image) to me is to prioritise strong stacks, perhaps with gaps. Its risky but it can really cost the Germans in MPs and combat losses. A stack of say 15 cv behind a river has to be fought the hard way. It also reflects that while keeping my army intact is my primary goal, there are sectors which I can't afford to cede easily. The risk of course is if he can pull off a grand encirclement at Tula I am in deep trouble, but thats why I am collecting the forces for a third defensive group (outside any feasible pocket), not just to re-open but to really hit hard at any spread out Pzrs.

What I am putting together is a front made of run of the mill rifle divisions (say stacked 2 high), a second line of shock and cavalry armies, a third line of brigades (ie a fall back fortification zone), a fourth line of my Stavka reserve (ie those units currently wailing on the Finns).

quote:

ORIGINAL: Oshawott

quote:

which really makes me suspicious its an exit port capacity limit (or total transport capacity in the Black Sea)?


I bet it's total transport capacity in the Black Sea. That makes sense to me.


I'm now not so sure, I note that in an earlier turn, 3 units routed through Sevastopol, they were in the hex next to it, so Sevastopol was fully stacked and in a zoc. But I have been using naval transport a lot, so it maybe that I'd overdone it in the final turn?


quote:

ORIGINAL: Wuffer


quote:

ORIGINAL: Wuffer

... but imho really nobody should have escaped,


OK, I have changed my mind and claiming vehemently the opposite.

I will leave this idiotic statement as perfect example, how this bloody germanocentric propaganda crawled in my brain - the Russian not only built better and much more tanks and arty and planes with nearly the same industrial base as the Germans, no, the German were even permanently asthonished by this facts until the end. Normaly, this could be the plot of a big comedy, if these idiots would not have killed half Europe.
However, History repeats itself, and hopefully in Loki's AAR.

Hopefully.
You didn't really express a moment of surprise by youself, Loki, as a complete division in a mighty fortress simply capitulates??
Kill 'em.
stop storytelling.
:-)




Oh the cussing when the turn was opened was substantial .. one of the joys of PBEM is you can get your frustration out of the way in the safety of your own space.

I can rationalise it (ie they were the rearguard) and the loss of one division is not that critical - I've built about 30 extra brigades over the winter, so not only does this give me some deep fortification lines but also the means to replace immediate losses. 26A as an eg, is already back up to full strength despite being 70% destroyed in the previous turn.



loki100 -> T42 2 April - 8 April 1942 (9/24/2014 9:48:36 PM)

T42: 2 – 8 April 1942: "Remembered, if outlived"

The start of April saw mixed weather, in the south, the spring rains stopped all combat operations but around Moscow, conditions remained wintry.

[image]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/img538/5715/rdEYCp.jpg[/image]

The result was that both sides undertook limited operations with the goal of improving their front line positions for planned operations in the summer. German troops probed at the south and north of the Tula salient and they renewed their attempts at air recon to uncover the location of the Soviet reserve formations. The result was relatively heavy German air losses (25, of which 10 were recon aircraft). In response Stavka authorised a substantial offensive by the VVS, striking both German front line units and airbases.

[image]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/img674/6484/mp10M1.jpg[/image]

[image]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/img538/4989/5C4Jnf.jpg[/image]
(Soviet defensive preparations at Tula)

Having exhausted the Luftwaffe, the VVS was then able to carry out a substantial reconnaisance campaign of its own. By the end of the week, Stavka was reasonably sure it had detected all 4 Panzer Armies. One was deployed to the north of Moscow near Shakhovskaya. It was not clear if this designed to renew the German offensive towards the Moskva-Volga Canal or to stop the mounting pressure being exerted by NW Front.

Another Pzr Army was deployed in the Kaluga sector and the final two were in bulge between Orel and Voronezh created by the recent German offensive.

While they could be redeployed to almost any sector of the front, this indicated a determination to take Tula as they opening stage of their summer offensive. The northern option was relatively clear from the map, driving through the lines of Western Front's 10 Army. From the south, two main options existed. The most likely would be to aim for a limited pocket closing just behind Tula and trapping 18, 24 and 32 Armies. A more ambitious plan would be to attack further east with the goal to encircle the entire Leningrad Front.

Front and Army commanders were urgently evaluating defensive options in their sectors even as Stavka considered allocating more reserves to this sector. For the moment, the option of a strategic retreat was ruled out [1].

In the north, limited Soviet offensive operations continued. Elements of the Volkhov Front and 3 and 4 Shock Armies continued to hit the exposed II Corps [2].

[image]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/img673/1218/sH7Ev5.jpg[/image]

In the meantime, NW Front committed elements of 52 and 55 Army in a renewed drive towards the Larna

[image]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/img661/8312/9mK8FH.jpg[/image]

In consequence, while the southern approaches to Moscow were now Stavka's chief concern, there was some optimism that after weeks of brutal fighting Vatutin's NW Front had secured the northern approach to Moscow.

[image]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/img674/6933/EQUBGY.jpg[/image]

Overall the Soviets now deployed 7.1 million men, 80,000 guns and almost 5,500 tanks. North of Moscow (Volkhov, NW, Moscow MD) had 1.4 million. The direct defenses to the West of the city (Kalinin and Western Fronts) had 1 million. To the south (Leningrad and Bryansk Fronts) were 950,000. The central reaches of the Don were covered by nearly 1 million men (SW and South Fronts) while the far south had 1.1 million (Trans and North Cauc Fronts).

[image]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/img633/7729/edlazP.jpg[/image]


[1] I have to fight somewhere (I think). North and West of Moscow any battle will be one of attrition, here if I gamble correctly, I may have the chance to catch and damage over-extended Pzr and Motorised units. Of course I may also lose some of my best formations.
[2] This unexpected snow turn has enabled me to push a number of divisions over 8 victories, so should hopefully convert to Gds in the next few turns



jwolf -> RE: T42 2 April - 8 April 1942 (9/25/2014 7:26:13 PM)

Congratulations on your new guards unit, and the hope of several more very soon.  I think you're doing the right thing -- where you have strength of numbers, take advantage of that to whack his divisions and make them just a bit less robust for the summer offensive.  The trick will be transitioning from weather that is mixed mud/snow/clear to all clear by mid to late June, when the Wehrmacht will be finally unleashed.  But for a few weeks I don't think you risk any encirclements because it would be too dangerous for SigUp to drive his panzers very deep when the next turn could be mud.



loki100 -> RE: T42 2 April - 8 April 1942 (9/25/2014 9:45:45 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf

Congratulations on your new guards unit, and the hope of several more very soon.  I think you're doing the right thing -- where you have strength of numbers, take advantage of that to whack his divisions and make them just a bit less robust for the summer offensive.  The trick will be transitioning from weather that is mixed mud/snow/clear to all clear by mid to late June, when the Wehrmacht will be finally unleashed.  But for a few weeks I don't think you risk any encirclements because it would be too dangerous for SigUp to drive his panzers very deep when the next turn could be mud.


aye, in a way that snow turn suited me very well, I won 3 big battles using divisions that were just on the threshold, so that, plus some airborne conversions, will get me the makings of 4-5 Gds Inf Corps and 3 Gds Cav (plus a lot of decent units that will go over the limit once the war restarts - unless I manage to lose them). All the Siberians are up around 55 morale so powerful even if they stay as line divisions.

I've been obsessively studying the map and options around Tula. I think I've found a line where he will really struggle for a big encirclement (which is my fear) and will mean his units are vulnerable to some counter strokes. I doubt I'll manage the devastating riposte of Oshawatt vs Stef but I think I can avoid the disasters of Frogmarc vs Stef.

My feeling is there is a balance point. I can't fight him to a standstill on the current front lines, so there is no point trying too hard to hold some ground (apart from immediately at Moscow). In the south, if he goes that way, I'll fall back - I think I can use the rivers to avoid an immediate encirclement, thereafter, I think supply and fatigue will do more damage than anything I can muster till later in 1942.

As a contrast, Moscow has few stacks of below 26 defensive cv (& are behind rivers where I can), the south has stacks of 4-8, so won't stop anything (& aren't designed to).

Tula-Ryazan is the dangerous transition zone. Its still more important to avoid catastrophic losses, and it doesn't really matter (as long as I keep him from crossing the Oka) if I lose it, but it offers a chance to blunt and attrite his best units on a defensive belt of my choice. But its not going to be Kursk a year early - I'm still too weak defensively to win so close to his supply lines.

So my regular armies with their run of mill 40-42 morale (this is the impact of the 95% morale setting) rifle divisions are designed to cost him time and losses but I'm prepared to lose them if that gives me both a substantial delay and the chance to take on his Pzrs away from infantry support. I'd regard a victory as losing no more than 4 armies of basic rifle divisions, tieing him up till the end of July and exhausting his Pzrs, if by then he has cleared me out of this sector, that will do fine.



jwolf -> RE: T42 2 April - 8 April 1942 (9/26/2014 1:58:34 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100

I'd regard a victory as losing no more than 4 armies of basic rifle divisions, tieing him up till the end of July and exhausting his Pzrs, if by then he has cleared me out of this sector, that will do fine.


Chilling, but it sounds like good strategy and it's what you have to do until you have the quality forces to stop him cold.



Oshawott -> RE: T42 2 April - 8 April 1942 (9/26/2014 2:40:13 AM)

quote:

So my regular armies with their run of mill 40-42 morale (this is the impact of the 95% morale setting)


This confuses me. Isn't national morale still 45 despite the 95% setting? Shouldn't all you units be at least at 45 morale just as long as you keep them 10 hexes away from the front for a turn or two?



loki100 -> RE: T42 2 April - 8 April 1942 (9/26/2014 6:10:08 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf


quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100

I'd regard a victory as losing no more than 4 armies of basic rifle divisions, tieing him up till the end of July and exhausting his Pzrs, if by then he has cleared me out of this sector, that will do fine.


Chilling, but it sounds like good strategy and it's what you have to do until you have the quality forces to stop him cold.


Its one of the many ways I think this game is a superb simulation, you end up thinking along rather realistic (if brutal) lines. I've got the same about the VVS, winning is exhausting his fighters with a swarm of mine and having enough spare to then hit his bombers and recon aircraft. That has been my strategy recently and its starting to pay off - after all I have far more aircraft.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Oshawott

quote:

So my regular armies with their run of mill 40-42 morale (this is the impact of the 95% morale setting)


This confuses me. Isn't national morale still 45 despite the 95% setting? Shouldn't all you units be at least at 45 morale just as long as you keep them 10 hexes away from the front for a turn or two?


Its taken me a while to work it out, the rules about what setting affects what being a bit opaque. But the effect is that the NM cap is reduced by 95%. This has two effects, I think they are taking longer to recover if they have very low morale (I'm less sure about this as there is a random element and I have the outright numpties in charge of my rear area MDs) and the notional value is reduced from 45 to either 42 or 43. I'm not sure which really applies as I have a lot of rifle divisions at both values.

From discussion, we both think this has caused my defensive problems over the winter. The +1 rule masked the issue on attack. In a way this is realistic, the Soviet command knew they had to defend in 1942 but really doubted the ability of the Red Army to manage it (not helped by early disasters such as Mekhlis in the Crimea). This was one reason why Stalin was going behind the back of Stavka to sign up Front or Army commanders to go over to the offensive (and promising them new equipment if they agreed) ... which really didn't help Soviet planning for the summer.

But this doesn't apply to brigades, armour, cavalry or Gds, all of whom have the standard NM value of 50. This is partly why all the stuff I built over winter was done as brigades, rather than as rifle divisions. It'll take a bit longer for them to form up (couple of turns after flipping to division to fill out), but at least they will enter the battlefield with a decent start morale.



loki100 -> T43 9 April - 15 April 1942 (9/28/2014 1:47:08 PM)

Turn 43, 9-15 April 1942

Apart from the south, mud covered the entire front. The limited combat operations were all in the air where Soviet fighters again shot down a number (12) of German reconnaisance planes. Soviet offensive operations were limited to harrasing raids by the U2s, in particular on German front line positions around Kalinin and on the Larna [1]

Since nothing really happened, thought it might be useful to show some main changes in terms of overall OOB and the recovery of Soviet industry. I'm starting to build up quite a decent tank production and reserve, so have finally started to raise some independent tank battalions (though I think I'll burn off a lot of this pool once the main combat operations start again).

Manpower is ok, I'm still raising fresh units and only have a few rifle divisions to return. The improvement in my armaments stock means I'm also starting to raise additional artillery support formations (but again, also want to ensure I have a good reserve).

Next table shows all the units with Gds status (apart from those the rocket formations as these are raised as Guards). I have 2 more rifle divisions and 1 cavalry corps that meet the threshold so these should convert over the next few turns. This will give me 11 Gds Rifle Divisions and 3 Gds Cavalry Corps.

At the moment my truck pool is coping with the additional demand from my new Tank Corps.

German numbers are recovering. They had 3.3 million at the end of February and now just over 3.6 million, artillery is up 1,000, tanks up 500 (and very few under repair). Number of aircraft are down, but I assume this is due to rotating formations not a measure of underlying strength. Their allies have added 230,000 (mostly Rumanians).

Its the implication of all those tanks that worries me. In the March fighting the Panzer divisions had CV of 7-8, this will be a lot higher come May.

For the Soviets, I've added 350,000 men, 6,000 guns, 400 tanks. Front line airstrength is down 700 but I am busily re-organising for the summer.


[1] – actually very effective, in particular did some substantial damage to a motorised division.



[image]local://upfiles/43256/F9F435F4C0F7478B89E8CC09B1BAEE08.jpg[/image]



loki100 -> March-April review (T45) (10/6/2014 10:25:43 AM)

March – April 1942 (up to T45)

The final phase of the winter and early spring fighting had seen the Red Army thrown back on some sectors. All the gains of SW Front had been eradicated and, again, 26 Army had been destroyed in encirclement [1], Sevastopol had been lost and Soviet forces had pulled back around Rostov. The only gain was that NW Front had managed to make limited gains at Klin, helping to secure Moscow's northern flank.

It was now clear that the next phase would see a renewed German offensive. To deal with this, Soviet forces were redeployed to give three different defensive configurations.

Deployments and Estimates

The immediate defences of Moscow were held by front line forces from NW, Moscow MD, Kalinin and Western Fronts. Each front line position was between 25-35 cv and backed by multiple fort lines [2]. Stavka had also deployed its main strategic reserve in this sector.

South of the Oka lay the Tula defensive positions held by Western, Leningrad and Bryansk Fronts. Here, exposed positions had been abandoned as Soviet troops made the most of the rivers that crossed the front. Typically the front line was between 13-20 cv but this was backed by two defensive lines including some of the best units in the Red Army. This zone also incorporated the northern elements of SW Front. The rest of the front was less secure but also covered sectors where substantial ground could be surrendered without major impact.

[image]local://upfiles/43256/077B909BED434D4DBD4A683D96AED69A.jpg[/image]

In addition, Stavka ordered the VVS to undertake a massive air reconnaissance campaign to uncover the location of the German mobile forces.

This revealed one Panzer Army at Rzhev, whether designed for an offensive to the north of Moscow or to stall NW Front's steady progress was unclear. A second was at Bryansk and was assumed to have been the units previously active at Kaluga.

Finally, what appeared to be two Panzer Armies were in the Kursk-Voronezh sector.

[3]

Relative Order of Battles

In addition, since the end of February the German army had grown by 300,000 men, 1,000 guns and 700 tanks. Over the same period, the Soviets had added 500,000 men, 8,000 guns (mostly mortars) and 400 tanks.

In addition, Soviet industrial production was recovering from the disruption of 1941. In particular the steady growth in the number of available armaments meant it would be feasible to add fresh artillery formations to the main armies. In addition to the armour now deployed to forward units, 1,400 medium tanks, 1,600 light tanks and 500 heavy tanks were in reserve.

Air War

In the air, the campaign was slowly shifting to the advantage of the VVS. While it was clear that the German fighters retained a major advantage, the steady increase in the number of Soviet planes (and the removal of the I-series and Migs from front line squadrons), meant that few Luftwaffe operations were without significant losses.

[image]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/img661/6730/pR73fM.jpg[/image]

Over the last 8 weeks, the Germans had taken heavy losses in their bombers, reconnaissance and transport aircraft. The losses in their reconnaissance planes in particular was limiting their ability to detect the location of Soviet reserves [4].

Despite the heavy losses among the Soviet fighter bombers, the VVS now had 3,300 fighters either at the front or in reserve. Of these 300 were lend-lease Hurricanes, 800 older LaGG-3; 500 Mig-3 (now all in reserve) and the balance P40s or various types of Yak Fighter Bombers.

In addition, almost 1900 tactical bombers were available (1100 Il-2 and the rest U-2s). The U-2s were now being used on a regular basis for harassment raids on German reserve formations.

[image]http://imagizer.imageshack.us/img661/9697/SNmNMe.jpg[/image]
(U2VS in action near Klin)

[1] – third time in this game (this is worse than even the armies of the original Western Front), anyone allocated to that formation needs to worry about their future.
[2] – in other words the German 1 and 20 Infantry Corps that took Sevastopol could break this line, but it should be slow going, and if this is what happens I can probably counter by building some early rifle corps.
[3] – so, basically I don't have a clue what the target is. I assume the Pzrs at Rzhev are to shore up AGC/N in case I launch an offensive on that sector. The other 3 could be aimed at Tula, or planning a campaign in the south.
[4] - most recon missions are close to the front (& not sustained). Now it maybe that SigUp doesn't really care in that he feels committed to a particular plan, or is saving up his recon aircraft (I've done this in recent turns) till he is ready to commence his summer offensive.




jwolf -> RE: March-April review (T45) (10/6/2014 1:08:28 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100
again, 26 Army had been destroyed in encirclement [1]

(snip)

[1] – third time in this game (this is worse than even the armies of the original Western Front), anyone allocated to that formation needs to worry about their future.


Yeah, I would recommend STAVKA retire that particular number. [;)]



caliJP -> RE: March-April review (T45) (10/7/2014 6:42:26 AM)

SigUp did a good job resting his Pz units during the winter, since he now has close to 3000 tanks. That is a mighty fighting force backed by a full rail net....



loki100 -> RE: March-April review (T45) (10/7/2014 2:36:33 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: jwolf


quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100
again, 26 Army had been destroyed in encirclement [1]

(snip)

[1] – third time in this game (this is worse than even the armies of the original Western Front), anyone allocated to that formation needs to worry about their future.


Yeah, I would recommend STAVKA retire that particular number. [;)]


another one that is on the list for early retirement is 8 Army, its only been destroyed twice but it has the worst win-loss ratio of any of my front line armies

its odd how things start to snag at your attention. Also unintentionally, I've managed to reduce 2 Shock to little but a run of the mill combined arms army, which after the disaster on the Volknov and Vlasov's defection, never gained the reputation (or the equipment) of the other 4 shock armies

quote:

ORIGINAL: caliJP

SigUp did a good job resting his Pz units during the winter, since he now has close to 3000 tanks. That is a mighty fighting force backed by a full rail net....


Yes, of all the indicators that worries me. I'm starting to think there are a few key indicators to the overall flow of the game and one is Soviet PoWs by the end of November and the other is the Axis tank numbers in May. He certainly has far more than most other AARs report, including those that have seen a major Axis victory in 1942.

My hope was to be facing Pzr divs of cv of 6-8 (this was the case in March), but now I rather fear they will be 10-12 which is an awful lot more punch.

On the other hand our settings may change things (this is the reason why I'm finding it hard to interpret the situation - and I think, from emails, that SigUp has the same problem).

We reduced logistics to force a stop-go feel and so far this has happened. We've both had to stop an offensive at the moment of it yielding a clear opportunity due to the impact on supply flow (off rail) and on fatigue (may be wrong there but I've certainly seen higher fatigue for moving than in other games). If so he maybe able to hit hard, but not finish off the job, especially if the fighting shifts further east.

On the other hand, I've not seen any other PBEMs using Soviet morale at 95%. Without the logistics reduction this would have been suicidal. After all we've seen the impact when Pelton sets the German morale at 105% in a lot of his games. With the logistics reduction, so far it seems to have balanced the game - not least it meant that morale setting and the +1 rule produced vicious Soviet counterblows but not an unbreakable wall of steel in the autumn 1941 battles.

In the winter fighting my instinct was the +1 rule masked this lack of morale when I was attacking but made me (and the extra fatigue didn't help) very vulnerable to any riposte.

The impact is that the bulk of my rifle divisions are 40-42 morale, a decent number 43-44, but 45 is rare and one of my better units. So what would be the norm in most games, is a unit I'd look to nurse along in terms of replacements and so on.



jwolf -> RE: March-April review (T45) (10/8/2014 2:02:40 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: caliJP

That is a mighty fighting force backed by a full rail net....


My amateur's speculation is that the great rail network the Axis has at this time will outweigh the logistics reduction you put in place. Except for Axis players who attempt a Blue style deep strike, they can operate close to the front lines, with very good supply, and still engage -- or pocket -- vast numbers of Soviet units.



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