RE: Amazed at defensive prowess of modern fighters. (Full Version)

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Dimitris -> RE: Amazed at defensive prowess of modern fighters. (11/8/2013 11:59:33 AM)

Let me repeat my request for _message logs_ that show the exact reasons that the missiles miss.

I'm amazed that guys are endlessly talking about this and nobody posts the _hard data_.

The weapon endgame contains a long pipeline of actions (expendable countermeasures, jammers, maneuver evasion etc. etc., each affected by many factors). Unless we can examine in detail which of the links in the chain is problematic (if there is indeed a problem), we simply cannot fix it.




JCR -> RE: Amazed at defensive prowess of modern fighters. (11/8/2013 12:00:52 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sunburn

Let me repeat my request for _message logs_ that show the exact reasons that the missiles miss.

I'm amazed that guys are talking, talking, talking, talking about this and nobody posts the _hard data_.



We are on a internet forum, don't bother us with facts! ;)




jdkbph -> RE: Amazed at defensive prowess of modern fighters. (11/8/2013 1:40:00 PM)

1. I can't post it because I haven't seen it.

2. What we're doing (or at least what I'm doing) is called a sidebar... for (my own) entertainment purposes only.

JD




mrfeizhu -> RE: Amazed at defensive prowess of modern fighters. (11/8/2013 1:43:45 PM)

Energy conservation has to do with the pilot's proficiency, a better pilot will be better at it, if you put an experience pilot against the an inexperienced pilot
in the same type of plane the experienced should win, unless he was having a bad day.




john688 -> RE: Amazed at defensive prowess of modern fighters. (11/8/2013 2:25:56 PM)

quote:

The weapon endgame contains a long pipeline of actions (expendable countermeasures, jammers, maneuver evasion etc. etc., each affected by many factors


Could you please give us some more information about this?

I have had to poor through the Build roll thread to find things like this..

"AAW missiles now have their base hit probabilities adjusted for range (from launch point to impact), to reflect their reduced maneuverability at extended range. Rocket-powered weapons (most missiles) have their PHs maximized at 50% of maximum range and gradually reduced up to 50% of the base-PH at full range. Ramjet-powered weapons (Sea Dart, SA-6, Meteor etc.) are less affected; they maintain their full base-PHs up to 75% of maximum range and their max PH reduction is 25% of original."

It would be nice if they were in the manual.




Dimitris -> RE: Amazed at defensive prowess of modern fighters. (1/29/2014 2:09:01 PM)

http://theaviationist.com/2014/01/29/f15-vs-mig-23/

Four AIM-7Ms fired, three misses and one hit, against a [probably] non-maneuvering, [certainly] no-ECM MiG-23. In a battle environment as close to a training range as possible (DS).

Missiles miss, guys. Even under the best of circumstances.




dillonkbase -> RE: Amazed at defensive prowess of modern fighters. (1/29/2014 10:34:10 PM)

I am a fan of including an evasion penalty, otherwise what is the point of my 2 missile volley, I can get the same probabilities and spread my missiles out assuring I don't waste missiles.




mikmykWS -> RE: Amazed at defensive prowess of modern fighters. (1/29/2014 11:39:54 PM)

Yeah I think we've still got the loss of energy penalty on our list. I think the trouble is how long does that penalty going on for etc.
Little tricky.

Mike




erichswafford -> RE: Amazed at defensive prowess of modern fighters. (1/30/2014 1:00:26 AM)

I've looked at this fairly exhaustively and the pH of the various common missiles seems to match up quite well with historical examples. Working on documenting this soon, but I've got a newborn and my time is incredibly limited.

I think it's important to remember this is a wargame and not a flight sim. There are some necessary simplifications out near the edges where Operational meets Tactical. The focus is firmly on Operational concepts and not on individual dogfights. As long as the end results adhere reasonably closely to historical examples (and reward appropriate tactics), them I'm happy.

Frankly, Luck has a lot to do with how individual encounters may go - both in the game and in historical situations. But if you're doing your job right, you'll be putting the enemy in a position where they have to get lucky all the time. Eventually they won't.

That's where the focus of CMANO lies, IMHO - not the physical modeling of every last maneuver and tracking the energy of individual aircraft. I'd much rather see things like a more robust mission planning system. As far as I'm concerned, the current Dogfight AI and modeling is spot-on 99% of the time. Revising it right now is very much a "nice to have" in my book.





cwemyss -> RE: Amazed at defensive prowess of modern fighters. (1/30/2014 1:10:05 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: kondor999
....but I've got a newborn and my time is incredibly limited


Congrats, me too! Three weeks old tonight.

I have some GREAT scenario/campaign ideas.... and so far, about two hours a week to play with CMANO.

Wouldn't trade it for anything, though.




Blu3wolf -> RE: Amazed at defensive prowess of modern fighters. (1/30/2014 12:25:43 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: mikmyk

Yeah I think we've still got the loss of energy penalty on our list. I think the trouble is how long does that penalty going on for etc.
Little tricky.

Mike


not really... you can model this as accurately as you want for any aircraft that you can source an E-M diagram.




mikmykWS -> RE: Amazed at defensive prowess of modern fighters. (2/1/2014 1:21:27 AM)

Does the E-M diagram tell you how long the penalty should last or cover every possible case?
Those are the issues we have to tackle.

Might not be hard but you have to be thoughtful[:)]


Thanks!




jdkbph -> RE: Amazed at defensive prowess of modern fighters. (2/1/2014 1:06:21 PM)

You know... as someone else said, this is a war game, not a flight simulator. I'm guessing we're not directly modeling the physics associated with each and every aircraft and missile in the air during the course of a scenario.

If that's true, why not just go with a quick, simple (but hopefully effective) fix first then refine (if necessary) as time goes on?

For instance, take a base number... lets say 20 seconds (I'll let the experts argue over what's appropriate here)... as the recovery period for a "standard" fighter class aircraft flown by a "standard" quality pilot, after having successfully evaded a missile. These two values (standard fighter and standard pilot) could be further modified by aircraft generation (or if you want to get even more detailed, by factors such as T/W ratio) and side quality respectively.

During this recovery period, the PK for subsequent missile attacks would simple be increased by some amount. Stack these modifiers and you'd simulate, in a reasonable and simple way (I think), the situation where a plane goes from a high energy state to a low energy state due to evasive maneuvering.

JD




Blu3wolf -> RE: Amazed at defensive prowess of modern fighters. (2/1/2014 3:00:43 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: jdkbph

You know... as someone else said, this is a war game, not a flight simulator. I'm guessing we're not directly modeling the physics associated with each and every aircraft and missile in the air during the course of a scenario.

If that's true, why not just go with a quick, simple (but hopefully effective) fix first then refine (if necessary) as time goes on?

For instance, take a base number... lets say 20 seconds (I'll let the experts argue over what's appropriate here)... as the recovery period for a "standard" fighter class aircraft flown by a "standard" quality pilot, after having successfully evaded a missile. These two values (standard fighter and standard pilot) could be further modified by aircraft generation (or if you want to get even more detailed, by factors such as T/W ratio) and side quality respectively.

During this recovery period, the PK for subsequent missile attacks would simple be increased by some amount. Stack these modifiers and you'd simulate, in a reasonable and simple way (I think), the situation where a plane goes from a high energy state to a low energy state due to evasive maneuvering.

JD


such a simple set up is likely what will happen, but the issue is picking somewhat realistic values for such penalties, and making sure that such a penalty is in fact realistic.


quote:

ORIGINAL: mikmyk

Does the E-M diagram tell you how long the penalty should last or cover every possible case?
Those are the issues we have to tackle.

Might not be hard but you have to be thoughtful[:)]


Thanks!




okay. The E-M (Energy to Maneuverability) diagram plots airframe energy against its performance, typically expressed as altitude of potential energy lost against degrees per second turn rate.

what it tells you is how much energy it costs to maneuver the aircraft. If you read on the (for example) 9G line on the graph at the 22.6 degrees per second line to find that it loses 1600 ft per second, you can see how well the aircraft can maneuver, for how much energy cost (for a given airspeed/altitude).

If you want to apply a penalty to the aircraft for losing energy, then first you need to determine how much energy the aircraft must expend to defeat a missile kinematically. If the aircraft is trying to outturn the missile (common conception, also the least effective avoidance maneuver), then it will lose lots of energy, for a small chance to defeat the missile; it would also have a penalty to its overall energy state for any subsequent missile shots, that would last until it could gain that much energy back, by converting fuel into speed and/or altitude. If you know how fast it can convert fuel into energy, and how much energy it expends for a 'standard' missile defence, then you can easily apply a penalty for a fairly accurate length of time. The magnitude of the penalty is equal to how much energy was expended; the duration of the penalty is until the aircraft gets back to its previous energy state (combination of airspeed and altitude).

Finding out how fast it can convert fuel into energy is something that standard acceleration charts would help with. For USAF aircraft I believe all these charts are published in the aircraft's -1-1 manual.

Realistically speaking, if you fly past the Range Turn and Run (Rtr) for the missile/adversary combination, then trying to break into a missile burns lots of energy and is only really effective against first generation SAMs.

Theres an old USAF paper kicking around on it somewhere, Ill have a look for it. The gist of the paper was that defeating the missile seeker was generally more reliable than trying to outmaneuver a missile, and produced much larger miss distances. They threw a series of missile attack scenarios into a computer simulation with the 'pilot' doing different maneuvers, notably beaming the missile and then breaking into it in the endgame, flying head on and breaking away from it in the endgame, flying head on without maneuvering (baseline for the test), and beaming the missile without a break turn. There was also a discussion on 'gaming' the missile using knowledge of its proportional navigation algorithms to make a series of small turns which made the missile constantly overcorrect its flight path; this relied on making precisely timed turns - perfectly accomplishable, provided you know the specs for the missile. Not considered practicable.

I recall that the small turns made the largest miss distances, followed by the beaming maneuvers. flying head on and breaking away works if the missile has very high closing distances and some small lag on fuzing. trying to break into the missile was not considered helpful by the paper.

I hope the discussion on energy states helps somewhat. Ill try find that paper as well, though its been a while since I read it and I dont recall whether I saved it to my HDD or not.

EDIT: I have appended an example E-M diagram, probably one of the most commonly seen ones floating around the net in fact. You may also be familiar with this graph referred to as a 'doghouse chart'... as it looks somewhat like a lopsided doghouse.

[image]http://images.blu3wolf.com/uploads/doghouse.PNG[/image]

EDIT II: I found the doc in question and it seems I have not reviewed it recently enough. The paper is fairly technical, but it is very clear in that its best maneuver to generate maximum miss distances was a series of short, max G jinks in directions 180 degrees apart. This would definitely mean an energy penalty of some kind to the aircraft over time.

Apologies for the misconception. Feel free to have a read though, its interesting stuff.

http://www.blu3wolf.com/falconbms/docs/MissileDefense.pdf




mikmykWS -> RE: Amazed at defensive prowess of modern fighters. (2/1/2014 4:41:36 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: jdkbph

You know... as someone else said, this is a war game, not a flight simulator. I'm guessing we're not directly modeling the physics associated with each and every aircraft and missile in the air during the course of a scenario.

If that's true, why not just go with a quick, simple (but hopefully effective) fix first then refine (if necessary) as time goes on?

For instance, take a base number... lets say 20 seconds (I'll let the experts argue over what's appropriate here)... as the recovery period for a "standard" fighter class aircraft flown by a "standard" quality pilot, after having successfully evaded a missile. These two values (standard fighter and standard pilot) could be further modified by aircraft generation (or if you want to get even more detailed, by factors such as T/W ratio) and side quality respectively.

During this recovery period, the PK for subsequent missile attacks would simple be increased by some amount. Stack these modifiers and you'd simulate, in a reasonable and simple way (I think), the situation where a plane goes from a high energy state to a low energy state due to evasive maneuvering.

JD



Yeah likely the best way to approach although will do our best to come close on the first try.

Mike




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