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Centuur -> RE: A musical global war AAR... (9/21/2014 10:02:06 AM)
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If Portugal stays neutral, it becomes an invitation for the Allies to invade. Lisbon is a strategic very important port. Imagine the Bismarck in that port, far away from Allied airplanes enjoying the Mediterranean sun and sailing to attack convoys. Lisbon is also a secondary supply source. Also, there are the Portuguese possessions in the Far East, which are quite useful for the Japanese to use as bases when war starts in the Pacific in earnest. There is a resource in Portugal and economics is everything. Finally: I'm there and there's nothing to do for the German army for a while. So why not crush another minor with these kind of rich rewards to gain. Perhaps Italy even tries to take the Portuguese Islands in the Atlantic and use the minor port as an air and submarine base. Sure, that's a little tricky because of supply reasons, but why not?
Although the CW looks weak, it in reality isn't. It has quite a good airforce in the UK, there are land units all around the globe at places the Axis don't want them to be... Losses will be replaced quite fast. Sure, they got a lot of losses this turn, however, nothing they really should worry about. The convoy chains are indeed damaged, so some rationing will have to be done. Germany hasn't got the capabilities to invade the UK (to few sealift available to the Axis and it takes at least a year to build that). The CW fleet is almost untouched. Also, I didn't invest in SUB's with Germany and you need an awful lot of those to starve the UK. What I call the German "battle" army is almost unharmed, however the Axis lacks the units it needs to defend and garrison the conquered countries.
This is also the problem Germany has. It's end of 1940 and the war did go so well, that they simply didn't have time and money to prepare for the follow up of this very lucky succesfull campaign. Normally, it should have taken about a year longer to get Gibraltar. Fact is, that Germany can sooner break the pact with the USSR than be ready to invade the UK. The last thing is the most important thing to consider, since the Euroaxis needs to use the precious time it has to expand as far and fast as possible, before the US can put his weight in the war...
So, Germany isn't ready to invade the UK and isn't ready to attack the USSR. That leaves clearing the Eastern Med and kill the Greeks to make sure I get the Yugo's on the Axis side eventually. Morocco needs to be cleared of CW units too. In winter turns, that can be achieved quite well due to the fact that the weather is usually quite good in the Med, even in winter turns. Than, starting March-April the war over Egypt will start.
The set up of Spain in 1940 is very difficult. They are one unit short of making a good solid defense line in the Pyrenees and there was the Italian invasion fleet in the Western Med too. Don't forget the Germans were very, very lucky on that front too (if I were the allied player, I would have cursed and destroyed the dice by now...).
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