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Flaviusx -> RE: T29 - North (6/4/2014 7:32:23 AM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Oshawott
quote:
Have mixed feelings about this Crimea/Odessa business, it's risking a big bag once the weather clears up. Yet in doing so it would also eat up a lot of time for the Axis and burn through the always tricky mud/clear transition period in May/June without risking anything important. Even if the Germans clear the whole area and wipe out the local Front going into July that still leaves the Red Army in excellent position. So on balance maybe it's worth the trouble. I'd rather take my lumps here than in the east Ukraine.
The real danger is that the main forces advancing towards the Dnepr are exposing themselves to an Axis drive SE to the Sea of Azov in conjunction with such a clearing operation. That would open up the south entirely and the front tends to widen as you go west. Trying to join all this stuff together is high risk, higher than I care for. A big panzer ball could wreck the whole thing.
I agree with your assessment. Odessa is risky and I have to think about an extraction plan. But he is stretched really thin now because I am knocking on every door. The danger of encirclement in the south is very high once the weather turns. I have seen what happened to Tarhunnas and will try to avoid the same mistake. I have also seen what happened to Bobo. If I have to give up my gains so be it. His mobile forces are spread all over the map right now. He will have to use the mud/clear transition period to reorganize his army and get his infantry morale up. Without decent infantry he is doomed.
Also, I think he has a long term view of this game. He might even be thinking about a 43 victory. We are playing with VC260.
It's not so much Odessa that's the problem, or even the Crimea. It's your linking goal. Odessa and the Crimea are complete throwaways and excellent distractions in of themselves. They suck away time and resources from the German away from the main front just to clean up his rear.
But linking this to your main Ukrainian Fronts is what troubles me. I don't think you should press their advance that far. Because then it's no longer a question of loosing Odessa or Sevastapol. It's that plus your entire southern position, which will be spread out trying to hold on to a longer front. The Dnepr is awkwardly placed down here too, with the bend, and can just as easily hurt your cause as help you.
Better imo to stop well short of that and deny the Axis an opportunity to mount a combined operation in AGS that takes in not only the mess in the rear, but the main front itself -- a drive to the Sea of Azov taking in all of it, and blowing the south wide open. By not linking up you force him to disperse his efforts in two or even three directions, which don't really support each other. I like the idea of taking, say, Karkhov, but the Dnepr bend is asking for trouble. It's a classic backhand blow situation. Yeah, his panzers are spread out now but he's got plenty of time to correct that and the way the weather flips back and forth in late spring 42 makes it hard for the Soviet to react.
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